Wednesday 4/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 351000

    Wednesday 4/28/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

    Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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  • Can'tPickAWinner
    Super Moderator
    • Nov 2012
    • 351000

    #2
    Jeff Siegel's Kentucky Derby Workout Analysis/Power Rankings


    April 28, 2021
    (Listed in order based on the grades assigned to each workout)
    *
    ROCK YOUR WORLD - April 24, 2021, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

    See Workout

    Broke off about a half-length outside behind Best Chance (5f, 1:00h) and was cruising to the top before being given his cue and leaving his workmate easily with powerful long strides under light hand coaxing, then continued out to the 7/8 pole while full of run, splits on our watches of :24 flat, :35.2 and :59.2 to the wire and then out a full six furlongs in 1:11.3 without really taking a deep breath. This is the best we have seen him work; prior to his Santa Anita Derby win the son of Candy Ride needed to be pushed and shoved on to earn fast clocking but now he is doing it on his own. Galloped out like he will relish 10 furlongs and farther. GRADE: A
    *
    *
    DYNAMIC ONE – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :47.4b

    See Workout

    In blinkers, in company breaking off a length behind outside Prime Factor (same time) for T. Pletcher, engaged that one entering the lane and was breezing through the lane to finish stride-for-stride before being asked to gallop out stronger than ‘Factor to the six furlong pole and did so in good style while appearing sharp and on edge. Improving with experience and maturity and appears set to produce another forward move. GRADE: B+
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    HELIUM – April 23, 2011, Churchill Downs, 4f, :49.4b

    See Workout

    Broke off a length behind workmate, was breezing in effortless fashion while taking control into the lane and was just cruising to the wire before galloping out without taking a deep breath and appearing sharp and content. Undefeated in three career starts and was pounds best (very wide throughout) in the Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his only 2021 outing six weeks ago. GRADE: B+
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    SAINTHOOD – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

    See Workout

    In company outside Known Agenda (same time) for T. Pletcher and may have been a tad the best while appearing to be going the easier of the two most of the way without ever being turned loose (workmate under mild coaxing at the head of the lane to remain even), with the pair galloping out stride-for-stride to the six furlong pole. Had plenty throughout, certainly handled the dirt track just fine and appears to have come on nicely since his last race in mid-March. GRADE: B+
    *
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    HOT ROD CHARLIE – April 24, 2021, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.3h

    See Workout

    In blinkers, in company outside Chasing Fame (5f, 1:01.3h), breaking off a couple of lengths behind workmate at the five furlong pole and stalking that one in hand to the head of the lane before responding without being asked to roll on by in a visually pleasing manner, splits of :24.3, :36.2 and 1:00.4 (to the wire) and then out to 7/8 pole in 1:13.2 on our watches (eased up to the six furlong pole in 1:27.2). Not scintillating from a time standpoint but did just what was asked of him and was nice and relaxed and happy throughout. GRADE: B
    *
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    MANDOLOUN – April 17, 2021, Churchill Downs, 6f, 1:11.2b

    See Workout

    In blinkers, team drill outside Colonel Bowman (6f, 1:11.4b) for B. Cox, breaking off a length behind while being hard held, joining his company midway on the turn, hitting the wire almost a length in front without being asked (workmate under urging) and then being put to some pressure to finish out the drill to 7/8 pole and then gallop out an extra furlong. Did well enough, strikes us as a one-paced grinding type without a true turn of foot. GRADE: B
    *
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    BOURBONIC – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :49.4b

    See Workout

    In blinkers, worked alone and looked fine without being asked, steady splits before galloping out with some energy all the way around to the half mile pole, doing what was asked of him. Plenty fit, maintains his form, the farther the better for this long-winded son of Bernardini. GRADE: B
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    ESSENTIAL QUALITY - April 17, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, :59.3b

    See Workout

    In blinkers, in company outside Spa City (5f, :59.4b) while in hand to the top of the lane and then was under mild coaxing to finish head-and-head at the wire (workmate lightly ridden as well) but never could get by ‘City galloping out despite being ridden as bit with workmate slightly best by almost one length galloping out to the six furlong pole. We cannot knock the drill – the clocking was good, and the B. Cox-trained colt was moving well - but we were hoping to see a bit more from the Kentucky Derby favorite. GRADE: B
    *
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    KNOWN AGENDA – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

    See Workout

    In blinkers, in company inside Sainthood (same time), went off in hand but was about a half-length back at the top before being asked a bit through the lane (workmate breezing) and “re-rallied” to wind up head-and-head at the wire, then galloped out stride-for-stride, decent drill though it appeared workmate could have opened up a bit through the lane if allowed to. Curlin colt is not a speed type, and this type of drill probably does not cast him in his best light; we will classify it as a decent drill but not much better than that. GRADE: B
    *
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    MEDINA SPIRT – April 22, 2021, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h

    See Workout

    In company outside Azul Coast (6f, 1:12.1h) for B. Baffert and went stride-for-stride with ‘Coast to the head of the lane (neither being asked) before drawing clear approaching the wire to be a little more than a length in front that point (mostly on his own), then drew clear while being ridden out to 7/8 pole while appearing to be leaning in just a tad, splits of :23.3, :35.3, 1:00 flat and 1:12.2 on our watches, galloping out six furlong pole in 1:26.3 well clear of workmate while perhaps losing his focus just a bit. Solid final time but not particularly noteworthy from a visual standpoint. Looks about the same, no better, no worse. GRADE: B
    *
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    SOUP AND SANDWICH – April 23, 2021, Churchill Downs, 4f, :50b

    See Workout

    In company outside Peace Achieved (4f, :50.3b) for M. Casse, was extremely rank approaching the pole while attempting to break off a couple of lengths behind workmate, dropped his head and relaxed a bit once in motion but remained under a tight hold to the top of the lane and then was pulling hard while taking control through the stretch before drawing clear under wraps and remaining somewhat unsettled on the gallop out. Was too keen for our liking early on and may be the type that will resent rating tactics; probably be happiest if simply allowed to bowl along. Previous drill (April 17) was much smoother and more relaxed. GRADE: B-
    *
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    O BESOS – April 22, 201, Churchill Downs, 4f, :48b

    See Workout

    In blinkers in solo drill, under a hold from the three furlong pole while wanting to get out a bit entering the lane, then was put to pressure while passing the wire and then continuing out to the six furlong pole, never really leveling and not producing the desired response. Perhaps needs company; hard to endorse enthusiastically based on this move. GRADE: C

    *
    *

    Our Triple Crown Tracker Power Rankings identify the best 3-year-olds of 2021 in order of preference, with each horse given a theoretical weight assignment starting at 126 lbs. based on past performance and projected development. On the eve of the Kentucky Derby, here is a listing of our Elite-8.
    *
    1 – ROCK YOUR WORLD (J. Sadler) – 126 lbs.
    Pedigree: Candy Ride – Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker
    Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($546,600). Derby points: 100
    Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished first
    Next start: May 1, 2021, 10F Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
    Latest workout: April 24, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h

    The skinny: $650,000Y; third foal, lengthy colt with plenty of scope; full-brother to California Gr.3-placed She’s Our Charm; dam multiple stakes winner from a high class staying turf family; unbeaten in three starts, most recently in his first try on dirt when registering a gate-to-wire victory in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Medina Spirit) while setting fast fractions and then repelling all challenges to drew clear in the final furlong with complete authority (and galloping out far in front); earned a career top 100 Beyer speed figure in his latest outing (tops among intended Kentucky Derby starters); previous two wins were accomplished on grass, the listed 8F Pasadena S. in February in visually pleasing style (by two and one-quarter lengths from Cathkin Peak) and a maiden over 6F on grass on New Year’s Day (by one and three-quarter lengths while appearing to toy with his opposition); pedigree suggests he’ll thrive over a classic distance and farther; has proven to be effective on the lead or from a stalking position though he’s yet to experience dirt kickback; will enter the Kentucky Derby-G1 at least among the first three favorites; has never been a particularly willing performer in the morning but his most recent workout April 17 (5f, :59.3h) was his best yet; still a bit green in the p.m. (switched leads twice in the stretch in his most recent start) but has the kind of potential that could reach a championship level.
    *
    *
    2 – ESSENTIAL QUALITY (B. Cox) – 126 lbs.
    Pedigree: Tapit – Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality
    Lifetime record: 5-5-0-0 ($2,265,144). Derby points: 140
    Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished first
    Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
    Latest workout: April 24, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.2b

    The skinny: Godolphin homebred; dam graded stakes-placed sprinting half-sister to champion 2yo filly Folklore; 2020 Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old enters the Kentucky Derby-G1 with a perfect record in five starts, most recently when fully extended to win the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 (by a neck from Highly Motivated) while enjoying a trouble-free pace-stalking trip; had reappeared in top form in late February with an authoritative victory over sloppy going in the 8F Southwest S.-G3 (by four and one-quarter lengths from Spielberg and Jackie’s Warrior); completed his 2-year-old season with back-to-back Grade 1 victories at Keeneland in the 8.5F BC Juvenile-G1 in November when rallying from nine lengths back with the help of the fast-early race-flow to win by three-quarters of a length from 90-1 Hot Rod Charlie and before that with a three and one-quarter length score in the 8.5F Breeders’ Futurity-G1 (from Keepmeinmind); speed figures have risen with every start but without a significant leap and with a career top Beyer number of a good-but-not-great 97; proven so far to be thoroughly genuine and versatile (though not particularly willing in morning workouts) while giving indication that the Derby’s 10F trip will easily be within his range; in top hands and will be the deserving favorite in the Kentucky Derby-G1.
    *
    *
    3 – KNOWN AGENDA (T. Pletcher) – 124 lbs.
    Pedigree: Curlin – Byrama, by Byron
    Lifetime record: 6-3-1-1 ($541,700). Derby points: 102
    Last start: March 28, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished first
    Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, Kentucky Derby-G1
    Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:01b

    The skinny: St. Elias Stable homebred, dam Gr-1 9F dirt winner in California; verified the highly favorable impression he made in an 11-length 9F allowance victory at Gulfstream Park in February by returning the following month to capture the Florida Derby-G1 over that same track and distance with complete authority (by two and three-quarter lengths from Soup and Sandwich); earned a career top speed figure in that race and appears to be developing with maturity, experience and distance as is typical of offspring of Curlin; was categorized early in his career as a long-winded, plodding type but has displayed improved tactical speed and late acceleration in recent starts; seems certain to enjoy the 10 furlong trip of the Kentucky Derby-G1 and is likely to step forward again and be a major player in the spring classics.
    *
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    4 – HOT ROD CHARLIE (D. O’Neill) – 123 lbs.
    Pedigree: Oxbow – Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie
    Lifetime record: 7-2-1-02 ($1,00,700). Derby points: 110
    Last start: March 20, 2021, Fair Grounds, 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, finished first
    Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
    Latest workout: April 24, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:13.3h

    The skinny: $110,000Y, half-brother to champion sprinter Mtole; non-winning dam a half-sister to Davona Dale S.-G2 winner Live Lively; versatile colt has been successful on the lead or from off the pace and returned to winning form in his second 2021 outing when making all in the 9.5F Louisiana Derby-G2, relaxing without undue pressure to the top of the lane and then fighting off all challenges to register a two length score from Midnight Bourbon while establishing a new track record (1:55.06) and earning a career top 99 Beyer speed figure; had displayed plenty of promise during his juvenile campaign, beating maidens in his fourth start before finishing second (with the help of the race-shape) to champion Essential Quality in BC Juvenile-G1 by three quarters of a length at 91-1 after striking the front in mid-stretch; performed well when third (beaten a neck) behind Medina Spirit and Roman Centurian) in his 3yo debut in late January in the Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 while appearing to have winning momentum inside the furlong pole but then losing his punch close home while likely needing the outing; doesn’t have a great turn of foot and may be most effective as a stalker or pace presser; will be trained up to the Kentucky Derby with six weeks in between starts.
    *
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    5 – HELIUM (M. Casse) – 121 lbs.
    Pedigree: Ironicus – Thundering Emilla, by Thunder Gulch
    Lifetime record: 3-3-0-0 ($287,763). Derby points: 50
    Last start: March 6, 2021, Tampa Bay Downs, Tampa Bay Derby-G2, finished first
    Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
    Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 4f, 49.4b

    The skinny: $55,000Y; fourth foal, half-brother to Peruvian Gr. 1 winner Emilia’s Moon (by Malibu Moon); dam G3 SW in Peru; undefeated in three starts including the 8.5F Tampa Bay Derby-G2 in his 3-year-old debut (by three-quarters of a length from Hidden Stash), producing a steady bid (was 10th early) to secure the win in good style from a moderate field; previously had won both of his starts as a 2-year-old over the Woodbine synthetic surface (both at seven furlongs), a maiden in September (by three and one-quarter lengths from Excellorator) and then the listed Display S. the following month (by four and one-quarter lengths from Gospel Way); versatile colt has won pressing the front speed and also from far off the pace; bred to handle any surface and apparently does; should stay a classic distance; speed figures aren’t yet close to being competitive with the tops in his division and will have two months in between races while training up to the Kentucky Derby-G1; obviously is a colt of some quality but the strategy from his connections appears to place a higher emphasis on making the Derby field than actually providing him with the proper preparation to have a chance to win it.
    *
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    6 – MEDINA SPIRIT (B. Baffert) – 121 lbs.
    Pedigree: Protonico – Mongolian Change, by Brilliant Speed
    Lifetime record: 5-2-3-0 ($315,200). Derby points: 74
    Last start: April 3, 2021, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby-G1, finished second
    Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F, Kentucky Dereby-G1
    Latest workout: April 22, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:12.1h

    The skinny: $35,000 OBS 2yo; from the first crop of a multiple graded SW son of Giant’s Causeway, dam a synthetic maiden special weight winner at Presque Isle Downs; light female family (no SW’s in first three generations); was no match as the 4/5 favorite to Rock Your World when second (beaten four and one-quarter lengths) in the 9F Santa Anita Derby-G1 in early April, enjoying an ideal pace-stalking trip outside but then proving unable to quicken when the pressure was turned on at the head of the lane; previously had finished a distant second to unbeaten Life Is Good in the 8.5F San Felipe S.-G2 in late March, going down by eight lengths though gamely saving second money after stalking the winner throughout; before that displayed extreme courage when winning 8.5F Robert B. Lewis S.-G3 in late January (by a neck from Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie) despite being under heavy pressure from the far turn to the wire; speed figures are decent but have stagnated in recent outings; pedigree suggests he’ll handle a classic distance but though he’s clearly a reliable and consistent sort his lack of progression and his one-paced style provide concern that he may have reached his ceiling.
    *
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    7 – HIGHLY MOTIVATED (C. Brown) – 121 lbs.
    Pedigree: Into Mischief – Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward
    Lifetime record: 5-2-2-1 ($320,050). Derby points: 50
    Last start: April 3, 2021, Keeneland, 9F Blue Grass S.-G2, finished second
    Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
    Latest workoutt: April 24, Churchill Downs, 5f, 1:00.4b

    The Skinny: $240K though the ring as a weanling (retained by his breeder); first foal, dam a Canadian-bred sprint SW at 3; in the frame in all five career starts and earned a career top speed figure in his most recent start in early April when second (was five and one-half lengths clear of the rest) as the controlling speed in the 9F Blue Grass S.-G2 by a neck to Essential Quality, giving way grudgingly close home but with while benefitting from a race flow that may have flattered the performance; previously appeared a tad rusty when third (by a length and three-quarters to Weyburn) when making his seasonal bow in the 8F Gotham S-G3 the previous month; displayed plenty of potential when easily capturing the listed 6.5F Nyquist S. on the Breeders’ Cup undercard at Keeneland in November; pedigree suggests a classic distance will be stretching his limit; due to the projected pace flow may have to alter tactics in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that will prevent the same type of soft trip in the Kentucky Derby-G1 that he enjoyed in the Blue Grass S.-G2.
    *
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    8 – SOUP AND SANDWICH (M. Casse) – 119 lbs.
    Pedigree: Into Mischief – Souper Scoop, by Tapit
    Lifetime record: 3-1-1-0 ($203,875). Derby points: 40
    Last start: March 27, 2021, Gulfstream Park, Florida Derby-G1, finished second
    Next start: May 1, 2021, Churchill Downs, 10F Kentucky Derby-G1
    Latest workout: April 23, Churchill Downs, 4f, :50b

    The skinny: Live Oak Stud homebred; Monmouth Park allowance-winning dam traces to a solid midwestern family that includes Til Forbid (Arlington Oaks-G3, etc.); won his first two career starts in excellent fashion, a state-bred 6.5F Gulfstream Park maiden by seven and one-quarter lengths and then a middle distance allowance event at Tampa Bay Downs by two and three-quarter lengths, both victories accomplished utilizing pace pressing/stalking tactics; took on much tougher competition in his most recent outing in the 9F Florida Derbny-G1 and acquitted himself quite well when establishing the pace and then staying on gamely to be second (by two and three-quarter lengths to Known Agenda) while three lengths clear of the rest; a genuine sort but is suspect at a classic distance; will need to improve again to make his mark in the spring classics but with just three career starts has room to for further development.
    *
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    Also eligible: Dynamic One (T. Pletcher); Midnight Bourbon (S. Asmussen); Super Stock (S. Asmussen); O Besos (G. Foley); Bourbonic (T. Pletcher); Mandaloun (B. Cox); Like the King (W. Ward); Sainthood (T. Pletcher); King Fury (K. McPeek); Hidden Stash (V. Oliver); Brooklyn Strong (D. Velasquez); Keepmeinmind (R. Diodoro).
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    • Can'tPickAWinner
      Super Moderator
      • Nov 2012
      • 351000

      #3
      Golden Gate Stats: 'A'-Team Riding Stars


      April 27, 2021
      We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Golden Gate Fields. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Northern California. And be sure to support GGF by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Golden Gate Fields.

      Headlines

      2021 El Camino Real Derby winner Rombauer will bypass the Kentucky Derby and train up to the May 15 Preakness Stakes, where he earned an automatic berth via his victory at Golden Gate … The Rainbow 6 carryover will be $8,736 when racing resumes Thursday for a 4-day week … Congratulations to Grade 3 San Francisco Mile winner Whisper Not, who gave trainer Richard Baltas a second straight winner in GGF’s signature grass races … On-track admission for GGF is being sold exclusively online at Goldengatefields.com. Limited attendance is available each racing day.

      Stronach 5

      The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

      Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
      Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
      Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
      Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
      Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

      1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

      Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Golden Gate Fields, each posting at least 23% winners. The factor Best Speed Distance showed a $31.60 profit if you bet $2 win on each top choice in that category for the week.

      Best Speed Distance
      Trainer Current Year
      Last Purse

      Trends Last Week

      -- Jockey Frank Alvarado had an outstanding 11: 5-1-1 mark, including victories for 4 different barns (doubling up with Steve Specht). Four of the winners came at 5-2 or less odds.

      -- Jockey Armando Ayuso had a 9: 2-1-3 week, ringing the register with $18 and $27 victories. He also had a 15-1 hit the board.

      -- Jockey Evin Roman was a reliable 6: 3-1-2 aboard favorites. His 6-win week topped the riders and he was 10-24 in the exacta.

      -- Trainer Isidro Tamayo put up numbers for the second straight week. He was 10: 4-2-1 on top of a 10: 3-0-2 record last week. His runners continue to excel in main track sprints.

      -- Trainer Leonard Power made the most of limited starts at 4: 2-1-0, including $11 and $62 dandies, the latter Gypsy Spirit’s turf sprint stakes victory.
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      • Can'tPickAWinner
        Super Moderator
        • Nov 2012
        • 351000

        #4
        Pimlico Stats: Vera Going Very Well


        April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
        We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Pimlico. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Maryland. And be sure to support Pimlico by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Maryland Jockey Club.

        Headlines

        The May 15 Preakness is now just 2+ weeks away with new shooters aiming for Old Hilltop like Rebel winner Concert Tour, El Camino Real Derby champ Rombauer, Crowded Trade and Japanese intrigue from France Go De Ina … The April 24 Federico Tesio Stakes winner The Reds is not Triple Crown nominated, but could be supplemented to the Preakness, pending a decision by his connections … Miss Leslie earned an automatic berth into the Black-Eyed Susan with her upset victory in the April 24 Weber City Miss Stakes … Visit Preakness.com for ticketing information for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown, including a limited Preakness Live in the infield … Forest Boyce has returned to the jockey colony after nearly 2 months on the sidelines from a shoulder injury.

        Stronach 5

        The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

        Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
        Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
        Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
        Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
        Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

        1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

        Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Pimlico, each posting at least 39% wins. The 1/ST BET app’s AI handicapping picked 28% winners at Pimlico last week and showed a flat-bet profit.

        Trainer Current Year
        Jockey 1 Year Win %
        Speed Last Race

        Trends Last Week

        -- Trainer Miguel Vera came out firing at 6: 4-0-0, scoring with a pair of favorites and an $11 topper. JD Acosta rode the entire 6-pack for Vera.

        -- Trainer Keiron Magee’s runners were 10: 3-3-0. Winners paid $4, $9 and $11 and all 6 exacta finishers were ridden by Carol Cedeno.

        -- Trainer Dale Bennett was a rock-solid 5: 2-1-1, posting $8 and $11 victories teamed with Yomar Ortiz. The duo also had a 5-1 runner-up.

        -- Trainer John Salzman Jr. won with both of his starters, $8 and $13 winners in 6-furlong sprints with Charlie Marquez in the saddle.

        -- Jockey Carol Cedeno had a big 14: 5-4-0 record, going 8: 3-3-0 teamed with trainer Keiron Magee.

        -- Jockey JD Acosta had one of his best weeks of the year at 19: 6-1-1. A quartet of those wins came for Miguel Vera’s barn.

        -- Favorites were just 12-41 (29%) to open the new meet as the public settles in.
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        • Can'tPickAWinner
          Super Moderator
          • Nov 2012
          • 351000

          #5
          GP Stats: Pletcher, Casse Holdovers Holding Up


          April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
          We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Gulfstream Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in South Florida. And be sure to support Gulfstream by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Gulfstream Park.

          Headlines

          Thursday’s Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover will be $207,348 heading into the 4-day racing week ... Feature races Saturday will be the Big Drama and Honey Ryder Stakes on dirt and turf, respectively … Curlin Florida Derby 1-2 finishers Known Agenda and Soup and Sandwich headline the local contingent for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Sainthood and Dynamic would ascended from the Championship Meet maiden ranks and also are in the Louisville lineup … Gulfstream will host onsite contestants for Saturday’s $3,000 Derby Day Challenge handicapping contest.

          Stronach 5

          The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

          Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
          Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
          Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
          Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
          Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

          1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

          Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Gulfstream Park last week, each winning at a 35% or greater win rate and showing a flat-bet profit of at least $20.60.

          Win %
          Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed
          Avg. Last 3 Speed

          Trends Last Week

          -- Trainer Gilberto Zerpa dialed in at 8: 4-3-0, but 7 of the 8 starters were bet to 5-2 or less. The trio of winners maxed out at 7-5 odds. Zerpa and jockey Edgard Zayas were 3: 2-1-0 together.

          -- Trainer Victor Barboza was 3: 2-0-0, winning both in 5-1/2 furlong dirt dashes. He scored at $5 and $19 with those. After going 0-12 to start April, Barboza runners are 5: 3-1-0 since April 18.

          -- Trainers Todd Pletcher (7: 2-1-1) and Mark Casse (9: 2-1-2) fared well with the runners they’ve left behind after much of their operations have headed north.

          -- Jockey Joe Bravo was 12: 3-1-4 in limited strikes. Winners paid $3, $9 and $10, while he added 7-1 and 10-1 shots in the money. All 3 wins were on the grass.

          -- Jockey Miguel Vasquez bested the colony with 7 wins, won at 22%, and posted a strong $1.57 ROI for every $1 bet. He won for 6 different trainers, doubling up with Mark Casse.
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          • Can'tPickAWinner
            Super Moderator
            • Nov 2012
            • 351000

            #6
            SA Stats: Sadler Peaking as Derby Week Arrives


            April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk
            We canvass the 1/ST BET statistical database each week to bring you up to speed with racing at Santa Anita Park. Check back weekly for statistical trends and tidbits for premier racing in Southern California. And be sure to support “The Great Race Place” by betting with 1/ST BET, the official betting app of Santa Anita Park.

            Headlines

            The Friday-Sunday racing week features Saturday’s Grade 3 Senorita for 3-year-old turf fillies … A $186,141 Rainbow 6 jackpot carryover kicks off the week (plus a $9,880 Super High 5 jackpot carryover) … Santa Anita Derby 1-2 finishers Rock Your World and Medina Spirit, along with Lewis runner-up Hot Rod Charlie headline the Santa Anita contingent for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby … Santa Anita Derby third Dream Shake will contest the Pat Day Mile at Churchill … Leading jockeys Flavien Prat and Umberto Rispoli will be out of town riding at Churchill Downs this weekend … Santa Anita will host onsite contestants for Saturday’s $3,000 Derby Day Challenge handicapping contest.

            Stronach 5

            The $1 Stronach 5 paid $617 and $618 the past 2 weeks. Stronach 5 races this Friday, April 30, will be:

            Leg A – Pimlico Race 8 with an approximate post time of 4:34 pm ET
            Leg B – Gulfstream Park Race 9 with an approximate post time of 4:48 pm ET
            Leg C – Pimlico Race 9 with an approximate post time of 5:10 pm ET
            Leg D – Santa Anita Park Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:15 pm ET
            Leg E – Golden Gate Fields Race 3 with an approximate post time of 5:30 pm ET

            1/ST BET Top Factors Last Week:

            Horseplayers using the 1/ST BET app saw the most success with these 3 of the 52 handicapping filters for Santa Anita Park last week, each winning at a 20% or greater win rate. Speed Last Race was a top-3 factor for the third straight week and Last Purse for a second straight week.

            Speed Last Race
            ITM (In The Money) %
            Last Purse

            Trends Last Week

            -- Trainer John Sadler comes off a 6: 2-1-2 week in which he debuted Flightline, a potential star. Winners paid $3 and $7, but he had a 7-1 runner-up in the mix. His barn is peaking at the right time with Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World among the Kentucky Derby favorites.

            -- Trainer Ray Bell was 3: 2-0-0, sending out $6 and $14 winners on dirt and turf. The under-the-radar barn is 11: 5-1-1 at SA since February 6.

            -- Trainer Mike Puype posted a 6: 2-0-2 mark with winners well-backed at $4 and $8, but also with a 14-1 shot in the money. The barn is a strong 20: 7-2-2 at SA since March 20 with a $1.28 ROI for every $1 bet.

            -- Jockey Kent Desormeaux had one of his best weeks in a long time, going 12: 4-1-0, including 3-for-5 on turf. With top riders absent this weekend, he could be in position for a strong showing.

            -- Favorites underperformed at 4-for-15 on the main track and are hitting only 29% over the past 2 weeks.
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            • Can'tPickAWinner
              Super Moderator
              • Nov 2012
              • 351000

              #7
              Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks


              Charles Town - Race #3
              #7 DoobieDoobieDoobie He makes his local debut, but he has a couple of decent running lines this year at Laurel, and he should get a great spying trip from the outside.
              #1 Rossie Val He qualifies for this spot because his wins have come against cheaper claiming company, and on form he looks tough. That said, this layoff is approaching two years, and I wouldn't be too confident that he'll come back as sharp as he left.
              #4 Another Victory Finisher is a good fit with these, but he's probably going to be a bit overbet. Third start off the layoff offers some potential for another step forward.
              Race Summary Doobiedoobiedoobie may offer a fair price in here with the other listed pair likely to take some cash, and he looks like the right one to use to try to beat a potentially vulnerable comebacker.
              Charles Town - Race #4
              #1 Needacarcalllouie She blew a big lead in the lane last time around, but she should get another forward trip here in a spot without a ton of other early pace.
              #7 Lightfoot Miss She changes barns and moves in with the locals for a barn that has hit with both of their starters at the meet. I like that she shows up protected on a weaker circuit, and she owns some races that look competitive with these.
              #8 Lookin Back She adds Lasix for the first run since December, and she's quick enough to be right up on the splits with the top choice early. Not out of the question.
              Race Summary Needacarcalllouie improved when trying a two-turn local trip, and he'd be plenty attractive at something like the 4/1 ML offering.
              Charles Town - Race #7
              #5 Moss Boss Tracking pace should be able to get another good trip from close range, and his form looks quite a bit better if you just isolate his local one-turn races. Price chance.
              #7 Be Be Bop He is so reliable at this one-turn trip, building a 6:5-0-0 record dashing locally, and he draws perfectly to get another pace pressing trip.
              #3 Command the Cat He has more than two lengths to turn on the chalk from their last meeting, and that guy is going to get a big jump on him again tonight.
              Race Summary Moss Boss cleared the maiden ranks last out with a pretty convincing press and pounce score -- if he can step forward again tonight, he's not far off what it would take to have a run at Be Be Bop.
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              • Can'tPickAWinner
                Super Moderator
                • Nov 2012
                • 351000

                #8
                Frank Carulli's Daily Picks


                Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
                #5 UNDERTAKER Good try against better, starts fresh, seeks 42nd win.
                #1 ALTA SHELBY N Couldn't sustain middle move as record fell to 1-29 since 2020.
                #2 DEERFIELD BEACH Didn't duplicate runner-up finish from two starts back.
                Race Summary Undertaker bid 3-wide around dead cover at the 3/4-mile mark, was second behind the 3-to-5, three-peat winner at the top of the stretch and finished evenly. He starts fresh and figures tough on the class drop. Play a 5-1-ALL trifecta.
                Yonkers - Race #3
                #4 P C FOREIGN AFFAIR Must stay flat, could be forward factor if he does.
                #2 MADHATTER BLUECHIP Controlled pace in popular victory at Monticello, steps up.
                #1 KATKIN AND COKE Failed to capitalize on live cover in last three starts, moves inside.
                Race Summary P C Foreign Affair broke stride in 2 of his last 3 starts and drew post 9 in between, but if he stays flat, his race four starts back at a comparable level out of town makes him a front-end threat at a good price. Play a 4-ALL exacta.
                Hoosier Park - Race #6
                #2 FEARLESS TOM No match for repeat fave, takes some catching in this spot.
                #7 ER NELSON Rallied for third in his last three starts, finished ahead of 'Tom.'
                #10 INQUIRING MIND Unraced 3yo been traveling around to get ready, watch odds.
                Race Summary Fearless Tom controlled the pace two back but was no match for the winning favorite who came back to beat him again. He could go non-stop in this spot, so play a 2/7,10/ALL trifecta.
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                • Can'tPickAWinner
                  Super Moderator
                  • Nov 2012
                  • 351000

                  #9
                  Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks


                  Oaklawn Park - Race #2
                  #6 Witch Doctor Was outrun in a pair of starter allowance races and in a softer spot here; will be much closer to the pace and can answer the call when asked.
                  #4 Chicory Blue Was up in time and was claimed by Diodoro last out; can be close from the beginning and can dig in when challenged. Big player.
                  #2 Dunph Was claimed by Diodoro for $30,000 last time and drops to $7,500; has a class advantage but the plunge down the class ladder is an eye opener.
                  Race Summary Witch Doctor can track a moderate pace and finish with good energy; trainer Morse has done well lately and has this one in a good spot.
                  Oaklawn Park - Race #7
                  #7 Music App Set or forced the pace in fast races and will attempt to get her way on the front end.
                  #4 Sianara Tired to fourth last time and could be just off the pace today, and that could be a good thing for her.
                  #3 Berry Good Just missed in her only start and likely will be among those with a big chance as they drive to the wire. Will get plenty of play.
                  Race Summary Music App put down some quick fractions in fast races and looks like the one to catch here.
                  Oaklawn Park - Race #8
                  #6 Bye Bye J Had a tough trip and finished fourth last time out; is back with Arkansas-breds and can win it with a closing move.
                  #7 Hillary G Was a clear winner in both starts against state-breds, including last time in the $150,000 Rainbow Miss; can be expected to be tough right back.
                  #9 Proud Victoria Made an impressive late run for an easy win vs. claimers last out; has what it takes to get into the minor exotics.
                  Race Summary Bye Bye J has been successful vs. open company as well as Arkansas-breds, and her best effort can be enough here. Her last win came in the Saylorville at Prairie Meadows, a race in which she stopped the timer in 1:08 3-5 for six furlongs. Capable of getting back to the winner's circle.
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                  • Can'tPickAWinner
                    Super Moderator
                    • Nov 2012
                    • 351000

                    #10
                    Kentucky Derby Draw Rapid Reaction

                    April 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

                    A capacity field of 20 entered today for Saturday’s 147th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, and longtime track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia designated unbeaten Essential Quality (post 14) the 2-1 morning line favorite. The run for the roses will be Race 12 of 14 on a program that gets underway at 10:30 am ET. Derby post is 6:57 pm ET.

                    Watch and wager on the full card at Xpressbet.com and on the 1/ST BET app.

                    The 20-horse starting gate, which debuted last year with only 15 starters in the Derby, could change what we know about the importance of post positions. Gone is the gap between posts 14 and 15 when there was a main and auxiliary starting gate connection. The extra real estate allows for the new gate to be positioned a few crucial feet farther away from the inside rail. This could alleviate some of the inside congestion at the start, as well as the abrupt left-hand intensity of the outside runners crushing down to fill the void.

                    But the Derby pace is not as clear on paper as some years, and that could make the starting positions very important in terms of jockey intent and how they’ll want to settle into their preferred spot.

                    Rock Your World (post 15) and Medina Spirit (post 8) were 1-2 throughout the Santa Anita Derby, the former appearing more naturally gifted with early foot. With ex-sprinter Highly Motivated in post 17 off a wire-to-wire Blue Grass attempt when second, that could turn up the pressure on Rock Your World early. Soup and Sandwich (post 19) has trained very aggressively and was forward in the Florida Derby. He’s the most likely to bolt early from that post, again outside of Rock Your World.

                    To their inside, Hot Rod Charlie (post 9) wrestled command at the start of the Louisiana Derby. He could have the most early foot of anyone in the first 9 starting spots. With hot-training Midnight Bourbon (post 10) next door, that’s a potential pace hook-up as well – with the other principal speeds pressuring from outside. I would say this draw should help pick up the pace of the Derby.

                    Essential Quality should be midflight early in the Derby, but showed in the Blue Grass he’s capable of pressing the pace and pouncing. Jockey Luis Saez wired the 2019 Derby aboard Maximum Security before being disqualified for interference. That he knows the front-end feeling in this race should not be lost on possible rider intent.

                    None of the leading contenders are deep closers. Florida Derby winner Known Agenda wants a mid-pack trip, but could find that crowded from the rail and will have to work out a journey under Irad Ortiz Jr. But Todd Pletcher’s Super Saver, a horse Known Agenda stylistically mirrors, carved such a winning run here in 2010 from post 4 while on the rail most of the way.

                    Kentucky Derby 147 Field:

                    1. Known Agenda (Irad Ortiz Jr.) 6-1
                    2. Like the King (Drayden Van Dyke) 50-1
                    3. Brooklyn Strong (Umberto Rispoli) 50-1
                    4. Keepmeinmind (David Cohen) 50-1
                    5. Sainthood (Corey Lanerie) 50-1
                    6. O Besos (Marcelino Pedroza) 20-1
                    7. Mandaloun (Florent Geroux) 15-1
                    8. Medina Spirit (John Velazquez) 15-1
                    9. Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat) 8-1
                    10. Midnight Bourbon (Mike Smith) 20-1
                    11. Dynamic One (Jose Ortiz) 20-1
                    12. Helium (Julien Leparoux) 50-1
                    13. Hidden Stash (Rafael Bejarano) 50-1
                    14. Essential Quality (Luis Saez) 2-1
                    15. Rock Your World (Joel Rosario) 5-1
                    16. King Fury (Brian Hernandez) 20-1
                    17. Highly Motivated (Javier Castellano) 10-1
                    18. Super Stock (Ricardo Santana Jr.) 30-1
                    19. Soup and Sandwich (Tyler Gaffalione) 30-1
                    20. Bourbonic (Kendrick Carmouche) 30-1
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                    • Can'tPickAWinner
                      Super Moderator
                      • Nov 2012
                      • 351000

                      #11
                      F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

                      Evangeline Downs - Race 7
                      Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
                      SO $10,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up CR: 80 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 8:32P
                      FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2020 - 2021 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 28, 2021 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
                      Contenders
                      Race Analysis
                      P#
                      Horse
                      Morn
                      Line
                      Accept
                      Odds

                      Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * ASHLEY'S NEW SHOES: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. GALAXY THIRTYSIX: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. MISS OCEAN EXPRESS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BROKE FINANCING: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. CATCAKE: Horse i s dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer.
                      6
                      ASHLEY'S NEW SHOES
                      5/2
                      5/1
                      10
                      GALAXY THIRTYSIX
                      4/1
                      6/1
                      1
                      MISS OCEAN EXPRESS
                      12/1
                      8/1
                      2
                      BROKE FINANCING
                      15/1
                      8/1
                      3
                      CATCAKE
                      6/1
                      9/1

                      P#
                      Horse (In Running Style Order)
                      Post
                      Morn
                      Line
                      Running Style
                      Good
                      Class
                      Good
                      Speed
                      Early Figure
                      Finish Figure
                      Platinum
                      Figure
                      9
                      HANDSOME GIRL
                      9
                      10/1
                      Front-runner
                      82
                      78
                      43.7
                      68.7
                      53.7
                      6
                      ASHLEY'S NEW SHOES
                      6
                      5/2
                      Alternator/Front-runner
                      84
                      75
                      56.2
                      68.0
                      57.0
                      8
                      MEMORY MAGIC
                      8
                      5/1
                      Stalker
                      83
                      78
                      63.4
                      67.6
                      60.6
                      2
                      BROKE FINANCING
                      2
                      15/1
                      Stalker
                      77
                      77
                      61.2
                      65.6
                      58.6
                      3
                      CATCAKE
                      3
                      6/1
                      Stalker
                      76
                      79
                      61.0
                      66.0
                      54.0
                      5
                      DUEFORADATE
                      5
                      6/1
                      Stalker
                      73
                      65
                      59.8
                      67.4
                      58.4
                      10
                      GALAXY THIRTYSIX
                      10
                      4/1
                      Stalker
                      83
                      80
                      54.8
                      70.6
                      68.6
                      1
                      MISS OCEAN EXPRESS
                      1
                      12/1
                      Stalker
                      80
                      68
                      49.2
                      67.6
                      60.1
                      4
                      LADY RAD
                      4
                      10/1
                      Alternator/Non-contender
                      66
                      60
                      46.2
                      60.0
                      42.0
                      7
                      HERO OF GOLD
                      7
                      20/1
                      Alternator/Non-contender
                      77
                      59
                      40.0
                      55.4
                      40.4
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                      • Can'tPickAWinner
                        Super Moderator
                        • Nov 2012
                        • 351000

                        #12
                        F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National



                        Penn National - Race 8
                        W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double
                        Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up CR: 72 • Purse: $11,800 • Post: 9:02P
                        (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.
                        Contenders
                        Race Analysis
                        P#
                        Horse
                        Morn
                        Line
                        Accept
                        Odds

                        Race Type: Dominant Trailer. SHOWER THE PEOPLE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAYNOOTH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHOWER THE PEOPLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
                        1
                        MAYNOOTH
                        12/1
                        5/2
                        3
                        SHOWER THE PEOPLE
                        2/1
                        7/2

                        P#
                        Horse (In Running Style Order)
                        Post
                        Morn
                        Line
                        Running Style
                        Good
                        Class
                        Good
                        Speed
                        Early Figure
                        Finish Figure
                        Platinum
                        Figure
                        5
                        MORE THUNDER
                        5
                        3/1
                        Front-runner
                        63
                        68
                        42.8
                        56.2
                        50.7
                        2
                        NO MORE MARTINIS
                        2
                        3/1
                        Stalker
                        66
                        58
                        60.9
                        56.6
                        45.6
                        4
                        WELL BORN
                        4
                        5/2
                        Alternator/Stalker
                        72
                        61
                        48.4
                        63.0
                        57.5
                        3
                        SHOWER THE PEOPLE
                        3
                        2/1
                        Trailer
                        71
                        70
                        64.0
                        68.2
                        63.2
                        6
                        WHERE'S THE BEN'S
                        6
                        15/1
                        Trailer
                        65
                        61
                        29.8
                        50.0
                        40.0
                        1
                        MAYNOOTH
                        1
                        12/1
                        Alternator/Trailer
                        88
                        86
                        43.8
                        67.6
                        63.1
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                        • Can'tPickAWinner
                          Super Moderator
                          • Nov 2012
                          • 351000

                          #13
                          Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                          Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $15,900 Class Rating: 86

                          Rating:

                          #7 GIO DUDE (ML=8/1)
                          #3 CANTAKEITANYMORE (ML=5/2)
                          #6 THE PREDICTOR (ML=10/1)


                          GIO DUDE - I think the shorter distance will help this gelding stay the distance. This jock and conditioner are reliable together. Win pct when teamed up is difficult to beat. Ran in the last race against better company at Charles Town. The move to a lower class level should suit him well. Last time out, finished fifth on a track listed as good at Charles Town. I'd expect a better race in this event. CANTAKEITANYMORE - Each one of this gelding's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Latchman and Hurley partnered up are a horse gambler's friend. This racer coming off a sharp contest in the last month or so is a win candidate in my humble opinion. This gelding notched a nice fig of 86 in his last event. That speed fig should be high enough to win this time out. THE PREDICTOR - I expect this thoroughbred to shock some people in today's event.

                          Vulnerable Contenders: #1 JUST KIDDING (ML=7/5), #4 WALL (ML=6/1),

                          JUST KIDDING - This questionable contender didn't race too well last time out of the box finishing third. Can't expect a reversal of fortune today. WALL - Ran squirrelly on Apr 2nd. Be leery this time out. Quite unimpressive speed rating last out at Charles Town at 6 1/2 furlongs. Don't believe this horse will improve too much in today's event.



                          STRAIGHT WAGERS: Put your money on #7 GIO DUDE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
                          EXACTA WAGERS: Box [3,6,7]

                          TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                          Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
                          SUPERFECTA WAGERS: [3,6,7] with [3,6,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] with [2,3,4,6,7] Total Cost: $36
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                          • Can'tPickAWinner
                            Super Moderator
                            • Nov 2012
                            • 351000

                            #14
                            Handicapped by The Walker Group at Tampa Bay Downs

                            Always check program numbers.
                            Odds shown are morning line odds.




                            Race 4 - SO - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 81

                            FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000 OR LESS OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY

                            RECOMMENDED CHOICES
                            # 5 STRIKING CHROME 7/2
                            # 1 TAP DANCE FEVER 4/1
                            # 2 CHEERLEADER BARB 6/1
                            STRIKING CHROME is the best bet in this race. She has garnered decent numbers under today's conditions and should fare well versus this field. Ought to be carefully examined - I like the numbers from the last contest. Is difficult not to examine based on speed figures which have been very good - 73 avg - of late. TAP DANCE FEVER - Shows formidable speed figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. CHEERLEADER BARB - Can't overlook the connections here, a 18 winning percentage, one of the strongest at getting into the winner's circle. Sound average Equibase speed figs in turf route races make this racer a contender.
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                            • Can'tPickAWinner
                              Super Moderator
                              • Nov 2012
                              • 351000

                              #15
                              Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts



                              Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,300 Class Rating: 81

                              Rating:

                              #4 YOUNG AMERICAN (ML=8/1)
                              #8 LOVEATTURKEYCLUB (ML=12/1)


                              YOUNG AMERICAN - Took a significant drop in class rating last time around the track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Returning to a similar level right here. Should perform well in this race. LOVEATTURKEYCLUB - Looking at the PPs, it shows this gelding has won at double-digit odds.

                              Vulnerable Contenders: #6 BAR STOOL BUDGET (ML=3/1), #2 MUCHO PROSPECT (ML=7/2), #5 JUNIOR GILLIAM (ML=9/2),

                              BAR STOOL BUDGET - Hasn't hit the board in any sprint races lately. Not probable to see him doing it this time around either. Mediocre speed figure in the last race at Oaklawn Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this steed will improve too much in today's race. MUCHO PROSPECT - Not easy to play any racer in a short distance race at 7/2 when he hasn't shown any competitive efforts in sprints in the last sixty days. JUNIOR GILLIAM - Speed figures of 82/74/54 are started downward. 9/2 is not priced right for any mount in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance event recently.



                              STRAIGHT WAGERS: #4 YOUNG AMERICAN to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better
                              EXACTA WAGERS: Box [4,8]

                              TRIFECTA WAGERS:
                              Pass
                              SUPERFECTA WAGERS: Skip
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