Saturday 2/13/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:49 AM

Kevin Dolan

Event: (200365) Queens Park Rangers at (200366) Rotherham
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: February 13, 2021 10AM EST
Play: Total Over 2.5 (-115)
We're taking the Over 2.5 goals on Saturday in the game between QPR and Rotherham over in the English Championship.
Despite playing well recently, Rotherham continue to ship goals late, especially at home this season where 55% of all their conceded goals have come after the 61st minute. And that's a serious concern for the Millers here ahead of this Saturday's clash against QPR as they sit just one point above the relegation area, and badly need a result here in order to move to safety.
But if they're going to get a result here, it's likely going to have to come on the offensive end as Rotherham average the 2nd worst goals allowed record in the league this season at 2.63 goals on average.
That's not going to get it done here against a resurgent QPR team who are averaging 2.29 total goals across their road league games this season with 57.14% seeing both teams score also.
These two teams have combined for some serious goal fests in the past with the last nine H2H's between the pair averaging 3.44 goals on average and both teams scoring in all four of the most recent H2H's.
Take the Over 2.5 goals in Saturday's game between QPR and Rotherham.
PLAY: OVER 2.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:50 AM

Nick Borrman

Event: Schalke 04 at Union Berlin
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: February 13, 2021 12PM EST
Play: Union Berlin (-125)
Germany Bundesliga
FADE Schalke! A pretty simple strategy I've used several times this year with great results. They are simply a terrible side with just one win in 20 matches this season. Not only have they allowed the most goals in the league, they have allowed the most goals of any of the Big 5 European Leagues. Their xG numbers are atrocious as well with a -1.41 differential per game, also the worst of the Big 5 Leagues.
Union Berlin started the season great but have stumbled of late, winless in their last four to fall down to 9th in the table. Still, they have a +9 goal differential and a +0.23 xG differential. When a team needs a momentum boost, there is no better team to face than Schalke.
TAKE UNION BERLIN TO WIN (ML or -0.5)
Line Parameter: 4% to -140 or -0.75

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:50 AM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (691) Northwestern at (692) Rutgers
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 13, 2021 5PM EST
Play: Total Over 137.5 (-110)
Wager Talk's #2 Capper in 2021 +33.6 units. Add the “Asian Sports All-Access Pass” to your cart and get a full week of Brandon's plays for only $49 by using the code ASIA49 at checkout for a limited time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:51 AM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (693) Villanova at (694) Creighton
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 13, 2021 5PM EST
Play: Total Over 144.5 (-110)
Wager Talk's #2 Capper in 2021 +33.6 units. Add the “Asian Sports All-Access Pass” to your cart and get a full week of Brandon's plays for only $49 by using the code ASIA49 at checkout for a limited time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:51 AM

Tokyo Brandon

Event: (767) UNLV at (768) Boise State
Sport/League: CBB
Date/Time: February 13, 2021 10PM EST
Play: Total Under 141.0 (-110)
Wager Talk's #2 Capper in 2021 +33.6 units. Add the “Asian Sports All-Access Pass” to your cart and get a full week of Brandon's plays for only $49 by using the code ASIA49 at checkout for a limited time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:52 AM

Kyle Anthony

Event: (24029) Polyana Viana at (24030) Mallory Martin
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: February 14, 2021 1AM EST
Play: Mallory Martin -145

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:52 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's General George at Laurel

February 10, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$250,000 GRADE 3 GENERAL GEORGE STAKES AT LAUREL PARK
Saturday, February 13, 2021

The Lead:
Saturday's Winter Sprintfest at Laurel Park features a pair of President's Day Weekend fixtures for the track among 6 stakes on a loaded card. The Grade 3 Barbara Fritchie for the fillies/mares and the Grade 3 General George for the colts/geldings have warmed up winter for decades in greater DC. The Fritchie looks like a strong spot for favorite Hello Beautiful to run her local record to 8-for-8 lifetime. The General George provides quite a few more options for the discerning horseplayer.

Field Depth:
Grade 3 winners in the field include LAKI, MAJESTIC DUNHILL and SHARE THE RIDE. Meanwhile, FUNNY GUY is Grade 2-placed. Several listed stakes winners will be looking to make the grade. MAJESTIC DUNHILL has consistently kept the strongest competition since last summer, along with SHARE THE RIDE.

Pace:
There's not as much front-end speed as you'd expect for a stakes sprint, but the 7-furlong distance can dissuade some of the fleet burners. ARTHUR'S HOPE might be best-equipped to make the front, and should have the likes of LAKI, LEBDA, SHARE THE RIDE and FORTUNATE FRIENDS in closest pursuit. This race can, and is projected to be, won near the front.

Our Eyes:
Aqueduct raiders are 2-for-20 in the General George over the past 8 editions, including 2015 winner Misconnect and last year's odds-on victor Firenze Fire. FUNNY GUY vans to Laurel from his New York base and will vie for favoritism. Trainer John Terranova shipped Killybegs Captain to Laurel to win the 2019 DeFrancis Dash, but there's no guarantee FUNNY GO will appreciate the barn's return trip. Since 2013, sire Big Brown is a modest 13% winners with Laurel runners (and 1-17 at 7 furlongs). His offspring are 0 for the last 23 since December 2018. While I respect FUNNY GUY, he's been favored in each of his last 5 starts and delivered just 1 victory in a photo at 4-5. I'll try to beat him.

The 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th-place finishers from the Fire Plug Stakes at Laurel Jan. 16 all re-match, stretching out from 6 furlongs to 7. That race was won in last-to-first fashion by Wendell Fong, who will not return, but it does make you wonder if this quartet will be more susceptible over the additional ground. On the positive side, the last 4 General George winners all were adding distance off of 6-furlong sprints. And 8 straight winners of this race all came off of 4th-place or better finishes in their final prep: Good news for Fire Plug alumni SHARE THE RIDE, LEBDA and LAKI. Of those from the Fire Plug, LAKI interests me most as the beaten favorite. His price will rise, he'll be near what appears to be a soft-ish pace on Saturday and trainer Damon Dilodovico's runners hit a fantastic 30% over the last 3 years in 7-furlong sprints. LAKI was third in the 2019 General George, so he fits, and his rider Horacio Karamanos won this race in 2016. Add in a February 6 bullet workout and LAKI may be poised to deliver on his promise. He's been favored in 6 of his last 7 starts (only 1 win), but should be a more attractive price Saturday.

MAJESTIC DUNHILL closed 11 lengths to be runner-up in the 2019 General George under Feargal Lynch, and reunites with that pilot who recently returned from injury. Lynch had been out since last summer with neck and back fractures and just made his comeback last weekend. MAJESTIC DUNHILL is a past Laurel stakes winner who has some class edge off his recent races, albeit exits a pair of starts that were unraveled at the start. Trainer George Weaver has been on point with 4 Laurel wins from his last 9 starters, and brings this one north from Palm Beach Downs off a trio of January works. This quality colt was a past workmate with elite sprinter Vekoma.

TATTOOED cuts back in trip from the mile Jennings, where he pulled a 10-1 upset and got over the hump. He had won just 1 of his previous 17 starts, and notably TATTOOED is 0-5 in his career trying to win back-to-back.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: LAKI is 20-21 in the superfecta lifetime at Laurel.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: LEBDA does his best running at Laurel and his last race (at 11-1) was his best in some time, rounding back into form perhaps for leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $70 win LAKI; $15 exacta box LAKI and MAJESTIC DUNHILL ($30).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:53 AM

AI Picks for Feb. 13 Triple Crown Preps

February 12, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s road to the Triple Crown includes stops at Laurel for the Miracle Wood Stakes, Golden Gate Fields for the El Camino Real Derby and Fair Grounds for the Risen Star. The premier 3-year-old preps will provide a distance test for some and a class test for all. To help you decipher the contenders, the app’s artificial intelligence handicapping has been provided to give projections on each horse in the Miracle Wood, El Camino Real Derby and Risen Star.

Selections provided by the app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

//

Laurel Park // Race 3 // Miracle Wood Stakes // 1:23 pm ET

#4 Maythehorsebewithu // 31%W // 52%P // 62%S
#5 Kenny Had a Notion // 19%W // 35%P // 58%S
#3 The King Cheek // 17%W // 46%P // 54%S
#7 Subsidize // 12%W // 17%P // 45%S
#1 Tiz Mandate // 8%W // 19%P // 28%S
#2 Newyearsblockparty // 8%W // 19%P // 32%S
#6 Silent Service // 5%W // 12%P // 21%S

//

Golden Gate Fields // Race 8 // El Camino Real Derby // 7:15 pm ET

#5 Petruchio // 27%W // 44%P // 58%S
#7 Javanica // 16%W // 32%P // 44%S
#9 Rombauer // 16%W // 34%P // 49%S
#4 It’s My House // 12%W // 23%P // 40%S
#1 Positivity // 7%W // 19%P // 31%S
#6 Play Chicken // 7%W // 16%P // 27%S
#2 Waspirant // 5%W // 10%P // 17%S
#3 Tesoro // 5%W // 10%P // 17%S
#8 Govenor’s Party // 5%W // 10%P // 17%S

//

Fair Grounds // Race 13 // Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes // 7:18 pm ET

* #12 Keepmeinmind // 28%W // 42%P // 51%S
#5 Senor Buscador // 14%W // 28%P // 38%S
#11 Mandaloun // 11%W // 30%P // 40%S
#1 Starrininmydreams // 10%W // 19%P // 26%S
#6 Midnight Bourbon // 9%W // 16%P // 28%S
#4 Carillo // 6%W // 11%P // 27%S
#2 Proxy // 4%W // 12%P // 19%S
#13 Rightandjust // 4%W // 9%P // 16%S
#3 Beep Beep // 3%W // 6%P // 9%S
#7 O Besos // 3%W // 6%P // 9%S
#8 Sermononthemount // 3%W // 6%P // 9%S
#9 Defeater // 3%W // 11%P // 18%S
#10 Santa Cruiser // 3%W // 6%P // 9%S

*-expected to scratch and await Feb. 20 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:53 AM

Eddie Olczyk’s Saturday Spot Plays

February 12, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

NBC Sports handicapper Eddie Olczyk turns his attention for a pair of key Saturday bets to Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. Follow Edzo’s plays each week

Gulfstream Park

Race 11 // 5:16 pm ET // Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint // 6 furlongs

#5 Mischevious Alex (6-5 ML)
Solid favorite returns to stakes after big allowance score over a track he loves. This race sets up with lots of speed on the front end and Mischevious Alex should sit just off. Take even-money on the win end as fair odds. Exacta bet 5-1 with Edgemont Road.

Santa Anita

Race 6 // 6:14 pm ET // claiming // 5-1/2 furlongs

#9 Howbeit (10-1 ML)
Not sure why they tried turf in last – maybe only race available at the time? – but that certainly dirties up his form a bit. Back on preferred surface today. Well-spotted here now, dropping from allowance to claiming and advantageous outside sprint post. Win bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:53 AM

Host with Most & Risen Star Analysis

February 11, 2021 | By Johnny D

Gulfstream Park veteran host and analyst Ron Nicoletti picked 10 winners on Saturday’s 12-race card. That’s a huge afternoon for any public handicapper and great news for his loyal followers. Unfortunately, Nicoletti’s big afternoon was bad news for those squaring off against him in Beat the Host Week 6 action.

In concert with his torrid Gulfstream performance, Nicoletti tabbed 5 winners out of 10 mandatory Beat the Host competition races for total earnings of $82.50, based on $5 Win wagers. It’s the strongest performance by a ‘Host’ this season and wiped out all 4 players who were alive for a $6,000 beat the host prize offered to any player to defeat hosts in all 9 weeks. Steve Glynn, Lou Kotzman, Scott Shore and John Maskel were the last to lose to the host and share a $2,000 consolation prize.

Overall, Nicoletti’s Gulfstream winners came in the first 9 races: Girl Dad ($6.60), Hard Game ($8), Noble Empire ($3), Bourbon in May ($7.60), Augusta Melody ($3), Great Island ($2.60), Democracy ($15.60), Yodel E. A. Who ($4.60) and R Mercedes Boy ($5.60). In the 11th race, the Ladies Turf Sprint, he added Lady’s Island ($4.40).

Nicoletti’s Beat the Host competition picks included Gulfstream races 7 through 11 and he misfired only in the 10th race where his selection Bourbon Highway lost the rider. The hot ‘Host’ added Gr. 2 San Vicente favorite and winner Concert Tour ($2.80) in the 7th at Santa Anita.

Three players unimpressed with Nicoletti’s performance are Rick Millard, Dean Pignetti and George Turner. They picked up $1,000, $750 and $250 for posting Saturday totals of $144, $119 and $111.50, respectively.

The dash for top spots in cumulative earnings standings is heating up and just $33.50 separates the top four players. Craig Yoshino leads with $387.50, just $22 ahead of Andrew Ma. Adam Haskins is a mere $5.50 behind Ma and Tony Zhou rests $6 behind Haskins. Maria Cimino holds 5th place with $333, just $2 ahead of Steve Glynn.

Beat the Host resumes Saturday with Santa Anita’s Tom Quigley at the plate as the host to beat. Quigley’s a veteran of the process and familiar to fans as host of the popular pre-race Quigley’s Corner broadcast which includes entertaining and informative track announcer Frank Mirahmahdi. Quigley also appears on the track’s simulcast show contributing multi-race exotic selections and analysis. Those who know him rate him as the lead #Sharpie.

It’s not too late to register for and to play Beat the Host this week. $2,000 in prizes are available and players only need to beat the host once to qualify for the Beat the Host Championship Round where rich, coveted handicapping tournament seats are on the line. ‘Live’ $5 win wagers on 10 mandatory races ($50 total) is all that’s required to play and, since contest wagers are ‘live,’ players keep what they win. Be correct a couple of times and your shot at $2,000 and a seat in the Championship Round won’t cost a thing.

With snow piled in places as high as an NBA rim it’s challenging to imagine that the first Saturday in May is right around the corner. But it’s true. Saturday, the first of 16 Kentucky Derby Championship Series races is presented with the mile and one-eighth $400k Gr. 2Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Below is in-depth analysis of that event, including a suggested wagering strategy. Check back throughout the entire Triple Crown series for this man’s analysis of the top 3-year-old races.

1. STARRININMYDREAMS (STEWART/HERNANDEZ JR.) - 12/1

Is unbeaten in 2 starts—both at Churchill Downs, one sprint and one route over a sloppy track. He’s been gone since Nov. 22 and has a solid series of works every 7 days, including 2 bullet 5-furlong moves—a great sign of fitness. Trainer Dallas Stewart, a 10% trainer with horses off 61-180 days, has a reputation for saddling dangerous longshots in big races. This son of Super Saver hasn’t done anything wrong yet, although he does lose twice-successful jockey Joe Talamo to #6 Midnight Bourbon, winner of the Lecomte last out. Don’t ignore this one off the bench in exotics at a price. Exotics Use.

2. PROXY (STIDHAM/VELAZUQEZ) - 8/1

Here’s a consistent son of Tapit with 2 wins and 2 seconds in 4 starts. Second last out to #6 Midnight Bourbon, Proxy has a few things in his favor this time around. In the Lecomte he broke outside of #6 Midnight Bourbon and they raced 1-2 around the track. This time Proxy has drawn inside that foe and can be expected to determinedly challenge for the lead under Hall-of-Fame jockey Johnny Velazquez, who replaces Mitchell Murrill in the saddle. Murrill moves to #13 Rightandjust. That may be a significant factor. For an explanation of see comments for #13 Rightandjust. Win Contender.

3. BEEP BEEP (N. CASSE/MENA) - 20/1

This colt has a 7-furlong Churchill Downs maiden victory to his credit and takes a big step up in class. He’ll need to run much faster than he has in his first two starts. Trainer Norm Casse has had a solid Fair Grounds meeting winning at 27%. Last out Beep Beep finished a well-beaten 4th to longshot #13 Rightandjust. Pass.

4. CARILLO (AMOSS/GRAHAM) - 15/1

Leading Fair Grounds jockey James Graham will ride this New York invader for 28% winning trainer Tom Amoss. Carillo won his only start going a one-turn mile over the Aqueduct oval. That afternoon, after breaking a bit slowly, the son of Union Rags was last in the field of 8. He steadily made up ground on the leaders between horses, raced wide on the turn, took over and scored definitively under Manny Franco. Amoss has a sterling 24% win-rate with horses first out under his care. Graham and Amoss combine to win at 25%. The trainer has been quoted saying that he figures this colt will press the pace. Nothing wrong with the way he won but this a step up. Pass.

5. SENOR BUSCADOR (FINCHER/QUINONEZ) - 6/1

This son of Mineshaft is unbeaten in 2 career starts at Remington Park. One of those wins came in the $200k Springboard Mile Stakes by more than 5 lengths in fast time. The ‘Senor has no early speed but owns a powerful closing kick. At least, it’s been powerful at Remington. His rally from last, first out in a 5 1/2 furlong sprint, was impressive and his Springboard Mile closing charge a thing of beauty. Trainer Todd Fincher knows what he’s doing (20% winners). If the pace heats up early, as it might, then this colt’s closing charge will fit nicely. Win Contender.

6. MIDNIGHT BOURBON (ASMUSSEN/TALAMO) - 6/1

This son of Tiznow was purchased as a yearling for $525K and appears to be worth every penny. He has the most impressive resume of anyone in the race-- a Grade 3 winner who also was placed in the Gr. 1 Champagne and Gr. 3 Iroquois. So far, he’s banked $221,420, the bulk of that coming with victory in the G3 Lecomte Stakes last out at Fair Grounds. That afternoon, he was able to make a comfortable early lead, stalked by #2 Proxy and, further back, #11 Mandaloun. Things likely will be different this time as Midnight Bourbon now is drawn outside #2 Proxy and may get additional early pressure from #13 Rightandjust. This is a talented colt, trained by a Hall-of-Fame conditioner, but he’s going to have repeat his outstanding Lecomte effort under more strenuous circumstances. Win Contender.

7. O BESOS (FOLEY/PEDROZA) - 12/1

This homebred son of Orb will try 2 turns for the first time in the Risen Star. A winner of 2 of 3 starts, O Besos has the bad habit of breaking slowly from the gate. So far, he’s had enough talent to overcome tardy starts, but today meets stronger foes at added distance. Jockey Brian Herandez, Jr., who’s ridden the colt in both starts, moves to #1 Starrininmydreams for the Risen Star. Pass.

8. SERMONONTHEMOUNT (DIXON/CARROLL) - 50/1

This colt has 2 wins in 3 starts—both sprints at Delta Downs. He will need to run considerably better than he has in the past to be a factor in here. Pass.

9. DEFEATER (AMOSS/SAENZ) - 12/1

Trainer Tom Amoss has suggested that this colt may scratch from this race to contest an allowance race. The colt’s an impressive winner of his only start—a Fair Grounds six-furlong sprint. The allowance race seems a better spot for him at this point. Pass.

10. SANTA CRUISER (DESORMEAUX/BESCHIZZA) - 15/1

This son of Dialed In has improved in each of his four starts, with 1 win, 1 place and 1 show placing. Last out, he encountered trouble at the start of the Lecomte which put him well behind the early pace. ‘Cruiser did put in a solid late run to finish a well-beaten fourth. Leading jockey James Graham, who’s ridden this colt in all four starts, moves to #4 Carillo and will be replaced by Adam Beschizza, a capable replacement. Exotics Use.

11. MANDALOUN (COX/GEROUX) - 9/2

He’s one of four Risen Star runners coming out of the Lecomte. That afternoon, he stalked frontrunner #6 Midnight Bourbon and nearest pursuer #2 Proxy. He made a move at the leaders in the stretch, briefly passed #2 Proxy and then faded back to third late. Some might view this effort negatively. However, this was Mandaloun’s first start since November and his first try around two turns. Since the Lecomte, he’s worked twice, including a best-of-35 :59 4/5 five-furlong move. Jockey Florent Geroux (28%) and 2020 Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox (25%) combine to win at 26%. Mandaloun has improved with each start, evidenced by his ascending Beyer Speed Figures (75, 82, 89). The pace scenario in here should be more advantageous to Mandaloun and, if he moves forward a bit more, he can win. Win Contender.

12. KEEPMEINMIND (DIODORO/COHEN) - 3/1

This son of Laoban has been in the money in all four career starts, including a second and a third behind leading Kentucky Derby choice Essential Quality in the Gr. 1 Breeders’ Futurity and Gr. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, respectively—both at a mile and one-sixteenth. He hasn’t started since November and has been working roughly every 7 days for trainer Robertino Diodoro. Keepmeinmind comes from off the pace and this outer post position will be a challenge but his record can’t be ignored. He’s talented and has run fast enough against top competition to win this race. He’ll need some help up front to set up his closing charge. The morning line of 3-1 seems a bit short. Exotics Use.

13. RIGHTANDJUST (WILSON/MURRILL) - 15/1

This colt has won 2 of 3 starts--both successes around 2-turns. The first of those wins came in a maiden $50k race when he was claimed by his current connections. He then won a $50k optional claiming race by holding on to win after nearly blowing a 4-length lead in the stretch. Both of those 2-turn victories came in wire-to-wire fashion. That’s critical because breaking from this far outside post Rightandjust probably will be sent out of the gate by jockey Murrill. As explained earlier, Murrill was replaced aboard #2 Proxy. Human nature suggests that Murrill might want to send this colt from the gate to compromise the chances of #2 Proxy moving along at a comfortable easy early pace. What Murrill does from the gate with this colt could affect the early pace of the race and might influence the outcome of this race. Pass.

BOTTOM LINE

The first 3 finishers from the Lacomte should run well again with #11 Mandaloun turning the tables on #6 Midnight Bourbon and #2 Proxy.

#2 Proxy
#6 Midnight Bourbon
#11 Mandaloun

Best of the New Faces:

#5 Senor Buscador

Exotic Considerations:

#1 Starrinmydreams
#10 Santa Cruiser
#12 Keepmeinmind

$1 Trifecta Play ($30)

First: 5, 11
Second: 2, 5, 6, 11
Third: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12

$.50 Trifecta Play ($15)

First: 2, 6
Second: 2, 5, 6, 11
Third: 1, 2, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12

Race On!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:54 AM

Jon White's Risen Star & El Camino Real Derby Selections

February 10, 2021 | By Jon White

This Saturday’s Grade II Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in New Orleans has enticed a wide-open field of 13. Heading the 1 1/8-mile contest is Keepmeinmind, who ranks No. 8 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10.

Senor Buscador, No. 9 on my Top 10, also is entered in the Risen Star.

Qualifying points toward the May 1 Kentucky Derby are up for grabs in the Risen Star to the first four finishers on a 50-20-10-5 scale.

This Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields, which has drawn a field of nine, also offers some Kentucky Derby points (10-4-2-1). Additionally, the winner of this 1 1/8-mile affair will receive an automatic entry into the Preakness Stakes.

In the last two weeks I have picked the winner in three of four races offering Kentucky Derby points:

--Jan. 30 Holy Bull Stakes: My selection was Greatest Honor, who finished first ($7.60 win mutuel).

--Jan. 30 Robert B. Lewis Stakes: My selection was Medina Spirit, who finished first ($4.00 win mutuel).

--Feb. 6 Withers Stakes: My selection was Donegal Bay, who finished seventh.

--Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis Stakes: My selection was Candy Man Rocket, who finished first ($8.20 win mutuel).

My selections for the Risen Star are below:

1. Senor Buscador
2. Proxy
3. Midnight Bourbon
4. O Besos

Senor Buscador is undefeated in two career starts. Trained by Todd Fincher, the Kentucky-bred colt by 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft made his career debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprint Nov. 6 at Remington Park. After being 10 lengths off the pace, Senor Buscador roared home to win going away by 2 1/2 lengths.

Senor Buscador then started in Remington’s Springboard Mile on Dec. 18. Last early and 12 lengths off the pace in the field of 10, he closed with a rush to reach the front at the eighth pole, then kicked clear to win by 5 3/4 lengths.

After Senor Buscador recorded a good 81 Beyer Speed Figure at first asking, he ascended to a splendid 93 Beyer in the Springboard Mile.

Senor Buscador’s Thoro-Graph number in the Springboard Mile was an especially laudable 2 3/4.

I think Beyer Speed Figures are valuable for horseplayers. That’s why I often cite them. But in my opinion, the figures calculated by Thoro-Graph are superior to the Beyers.

Regarding Thoro-Graph, the lower the number the better the performance, which is the opposite of the Beyers.

Thoro-Graph takes many more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”

To put Senor Buscador’s 2 3/4 Thoro-Graph number into perspective, Life Is Good has recorded a 2 3/4 in each of his two starts to date. Essential Quality was credited with a 3 in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory.

Keepmeinmind, who has not raced since winning the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28, is entered in the Risen Star. He most certainly would have been a contender, but he will not run in the Risen Star, according to trainer Robertino Diodoro.

Daily Racing Form’s Mary Rampellini reported Wednesday that Diodoro said Keepmeinmind will remain at Oaklawn Park and run there in the Southwest Stakes, even though that race now will not be run on Monday, as previously scheduled.

Oaklawn announced on Wednesday that “due to predicted winter weather” in that area over the next few days, it has canceled racing from Saturday through Monday. Oaklawn moved three Grade III races -- the Bayakoa Stakes, Grade Razorback Handicap and Southwest Stakes -- to Saturday, Feb. 20.

Four Risen Star entrants participated in Fair Grounds’ Grade III Lecomte Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Jan. 16. They are Midnight Bourbon (the winner of the Lecomte at odds of 7-2), Proxy (second at 8-1), Mandaloun (third as the 4-5 favorite) and Santa Cruiser (fourth at 7-1).

Midnight Bourbon, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, won the Lecomte in front-running fashion by one length.

I think Proxy might have a big say in the Risen Star. I like Proxy’s improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern in his four starts to date (62, then 74, then 76, then 89). Michael Stidham trains the Kentucky-bred Tapit colt.

I will not be surprised if O Besos gets into the Risen Star superfecta at a nice price. After winning two of his first three starts -- all sprints -- in come-from-behind fashion, O Besos looks like he might relish the longer distance of the Risen Star. His sire, Orb, won the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby in 2013.

My selections for the El Camino Real Derby are below:

1. Rombauer
2. Petruchio
3. Javanico
4. Play Chicken

The way I see it, despite drawing the outside post, Rombauer is the class of the field and will be very hard to beat. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the Kentucky-bred Twirling Candy colt makes his first start since finishing fifth in the Grade I BC Juvenile on Nov. 6. Prior to that, Rombauer ran second to Get Her Number in Santa Anita’s Grade I American Pharoah Stakes on Sept. 26.

Rombauer was credited with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure in the American Pharoah and an 85 Beyer in the BC Juvenile. No one else in the El Camino Real Derby has ever recorded a Beyer higher than a 76.

NO CHANGE AT TOP OF THIS WEEK’S DERBY TOP 10

Essential Quality, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male champion of 2020, again is No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week.

Undefeated in three career starts, Essential Quality won a pair of Grade I races, the Breeders’ Futurity and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, at Keeneland last year for trainer Brad Cox. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt had been scheduled to make his 2021 debut in Monday’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn.

Cox has indicated that he intends to stick with the plan for Essential Quality to run in the Southwest, even though the race has been moved to Feb. 20.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Essential Quality
2. Life Is Good
3. Caddo River
4. Greatest Honour
5. Concert Tour
6. Medina Spirit
7. Hot Rod Charlie
8. Keepmeinmind
9. Senor Buscador
10. Roman Centurian

MOTT EXACTA IN DAVIS, RISK TAKING WINS WITHERS

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott sent out Candy Man Rocket and Nova Rags to finish first and second, respectively, in last Saturday’s Grade III Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Hidden Stash ended up third in the field of 12.

The $1 Mott exacta paid $118.10.

Candy Man Rocket, just off the early pace, had a 2 1/2-length lead with a furlong to go. His advantage diminished thereafter, but he still managed to prevail by one length while completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.30. The Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt posted an 85 Beyer Speed Figure while racing on that track for the first time.

Nova Rags, who was coming on toward the end, received an 83 Beyer for his second-place finish. Unlike Candy Man Rocket, Nova Rags had previously raced at Tampa, winning the seven-furlong Pasco Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths on the main track there Jan. 16.

In last Saturday’s Grade III Withers at Aqueduct, Risk Taking was sixth early, came on to reach the front in the vicinity of the sixteenth pole and drew out to win by 3 3/4 lengths. The Kentucky-bred Medaglio d’Oro colt completed his 1 1/8-mile journey in 1:51.91.

Risk Taking, trained by Chad Brown, lost his first two career races while pairing up 56 Beyer Speed Figures. Then blinkers were added to his equipment and he has improved dramatically in the Beyer department. He received an 82 Beyer when he won a 1 1/8-mile maiden race Dec. 13 at Aqueduct, then improved to an 89 Beyer in the Withers.

Concert Tour, who is No. 5 on my Top 10, is two for two for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert after winning last Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes last Saturday. Sent off as the 2-5 favorite, the Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt had to work harder for the victory than many expected.

A close-up third early in the seven-furlong San Vicente, Concert Tour wore down comebacker, pacemaker and fellow Baffert barnmate Freedom Fighter in the last sixteenth. Concert Tour won by a half-length, then drew clear when galloping out, furthering the impression that he quite likely will appreciate it when he races around two turns in his next start.

Concert Tour and Freedom Fighter both were credited with an excellent 94 Beyer Speed Figure for their San Vicente performances. This was a wonderful effort on the part of Freedom Fighter in that he did the “heavy lifting” by setting the pace and had not raced since winning a five-furlong maiden dash by a head at Del Mar when unveiled last Aug. 1.

Thus far, Concert Tour’s career has mirrored that of the Baffert-trained Nadal. After Nadal won a Santa Anita maiden race at first asking in January at Santa Anita, he then registered a hard-earned win in the San Vicente when his margin of victory was three-quarters of a length.

Following the San Vicente, Nadal won Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes by three-quarters of a length on a sloppy track before taking a division of the Grade I Arkansas Derby by three lengths on the first Saturday in May. Unfortunately for Nadal, he never raced again after the May 2 Arkansas Derby. It was announced on May 28 that Nadal had been retired from racing as a result of a condylar fracture in his left front leg following a four-furlong workout in :48.80 that morning at Santa Anita.

The hope here is Concert Tour’s racing career will last much longer than Nadal’s.

DREAM SHAKE DAZZLES IN DEBUT

There was considerable hype going into last Sunday’s Super Bowl in that the quarterbacks were superstars Tom Brady for Tampa Bay and Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City. But the game did not live up to the QB hype. Tampa Bay won 31-9. It was Brady’s seventh Super Bowl victory (six with New England and now one with Tampa Bay). I was way wrong with my prediction that Kansas City would win by 3 points.

Meanwhile, there also was considerable hype going into last Sunday’s fifth race at Santa Anita due to the presence of the highly regarded first-time starter Bezos from the Baffert barn.

But Bezos did not live up to the hype. When the 6 1/2-furlong maiden race was over, it was a different debut runner, Dream Shake, who won in such a manner as to cause many a jaw to drop.

With Joel Rosario aboard, Dream Shake was next-to-last early while racing wide in the strong field of nine. On the far turn, Dream Shake passed rivals with a rush. I love to see a horse make a move like that on a turn. It’s a sign of athleticism.

“As the field turns for home, Dream Shake with a stellar move to the front,” said track announcer Frank Mirahmadi.

Dream Shake then drew away to win with authority by 4 3/4 lengths in 1:17.34. Rosario might have come out of the race with a sore neck after looking back so many times in the final sixteenth just to make sure nobody was sneaking up on them.

In terms of Beyer Speed Figures, while Candy Man Rocket got an 85 in the Sam F. Davis, Risk Taking got an 89 in the Withers and Concert Tour got a 94 in the San Vicente, Dream Shake topped them when he flexed his muscles to such an extent that he produced a 96 while earning his maiden diploma.

Peter Eurton, who won the Grade I BC Juvenile with Storm the Court, trains Dream Shake.

When it came to making the morning line for this race, I knew I was going to install Bezos as the favorite. The only question was just how low of a favorite would I make him. I had no doubt that he would be heavily bet because of all the hype. I seriously considered making him even money or even 4-5. But if I went that low on him, then I would have been compelled to make bigger prices than I wanted to on many of the horses in the race, including Dream Maker.

Ultimately, I made Bezos a 6-5 morning-line favorite in the field of nine. He was hammered down to 3-5 favoritism. I made Mr. Impossible the second choice at 7-2. He went off at 7-2. But because of all the money that poured in on Bezos in the win pool, if you liked anyone other than Bezos or Mr. Impossible, you got an inflated price. I made Dream Shake 10-1 on the morning line. He was allowed to get away at a generous 20-1.

As for Bezos, when push came to shove, he let his numerous backers down. Third early, he faltered in the stretch and finished seventh, 15 1/4 lengths behind Dream Shake.

TRAINER JULIO CANANI PASSES AWAY

Julio Canani, who won three Breeders’ Cup races during his training career, died last Friday at a hospital in Pasadena, Calif. He was 83.

Jay Privman wrote the Canani obituary for the Daily Racing Form. As someone who has been reading the DRF for over 50 years, I can say that I have never seen a better-written obit for that publication than this one.

“Canani had been suffering from dementia and recently contracted COVID-19, friends said,” Privman wrote. “His training career effectively ended in fall 2015, when the California Horse Racing Board suspended him following allegations of financial impropriety regarding the sale of racehorses. He was a denied a license when he applied for reinstatement in 2017, but he was allowed to visit the track, though his illness by then had taken hold.”

Canani won the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Mile with Silic, 2001 BC Mile with Val Royal and 2004 BC Juvenile Fillies with Sweet Catomine. Sweet Catomine was voted the 2004 Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly.

Privman put it perfectly when he called Canani “one of the most colorful characters the Southern California racing community has ever known.”

In all the years since I first started going to the races in the 1960s, Canani was, without a doubt, one of the most colorful characters I ever came across.

“He had a devilish sense of humor and a fractured relationship with the English language, elements that were brought out in the character Turo Escalante, a trainer in the HBO series ‘Luck,’ played by actor John Ortiz and modeled after Canani,” Privman wrote.

I certainly can attest that Canani loved to bet on horses. One time at the Del Mar press box mutuel window in the early 1980s long before there were self-service terminals, I made a huge tactical error. I got in line behind Canani as the horses had just reached the starting gate. Well, Canani took so much time making his wagers with the teller that I got shut out. My horse, of course, won. Lesson learned. From then on, I knew better than to ever again get behind Canani in a mutuel line if it was close to post time.

“Canani loved to gamble, either on horses he claimed that he thought would improve, or horses he had handicapped or seen training in the mornings,” Privman wrote. “He would cheer loudly while snapping his fingers, trying to get his runners up while often imploring riders with nicknames that are not printable.”

No doubt Canani was snapping his fingers furiously during the stretch run of the 1989 Santa Anita Handicap. Canani trained Martial Law, who won the prestigious Big ’Cap in a shocking upset. Martial Law paid $103.60 for a $2 win ticket.

I called the 1989 Santa Anita Handicap chart for the DRF. In the chart comments, I wrote: “MARTIAL LAW, prominent early after getting away in good order, remained within close attendance of the lead on the backstretch, came on readily while under right-handed pressure to forge to the front a furlong out, then drew clear in the final sixteenth while finishing strongly while under aggressive handling.”

Finishing second at odds of 40-1 in the field of 11 was Triteamtri. Stylish Winner, the longest shot in the race at 80-1, came in third. Nasr El Arab, the 7-5 favorite, finished eighth.

What made winning the Big ’Cap with a 50-1 outsider extra sweet for Canani was he beat his mentor, Bobby Frankel, who trained Triteamtri.

“Canani was a native of Peru who emigrated to the United States as a teenager, working initially for Tommy Doyle,” Privman wrote. “He worked his way up the training ladder with his skill and wits, graduating from claiming horses to stakes runners, his career arc mirroring that of Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel, whom Canani idolized, calling him ‘Presidente.’ ”

The last time I saw Canani was at a convenience store near Santa Anita not too long after he had been suspended by the CHRB. I was in the store that morning to get a cup of coffee. After we chatted for a bit, we both got in line. And once again it was to my detriment that I got in a line behind Canani. That’s because it took him quite a long time to buy a whole flock of lottery tickets. But at least this time Canani did not cause me to get shut out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:54 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

February 13, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a big 15-race card set for tonight with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 beginning in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Friday, the driver with the hottest hands was Andrew McCarthy with three trips to the winner's circle. The top conditioner on the card was Julie Miller with two pictures.

Front runners ruled last night. Every winner was either first, or within about two lengths of the leader at the top of the stretch.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Hudson Phil (12-1)-Comes off an improved effort in 2nd start off the bench. Shows good gate speed in past tries and has a chance to get a cozy trip possibly behind #8. Zeron steers for the 3rd straight time and will take a swing for a solid price.
5-Italian Delight N (8-1)-Four race win streak was snapped in last but that effort came from post 10. Did pace the back half in 54.4 and now gets a very good post. Dunn steers again and it's best to respect.
8-Western Joe (5/2)-Form is sharp and has raced well in the last 2 despite being stuck with the 8 and 9 post. Could leave again and has the gate speed to find a close-up seat. This isn't an easy group but is a major player and will likely be bet hard again.

Race 7

2-Incredible Shark (4-1)-Steps up, but almost the entire field is facing better and last 3 have been sharp tries. Doesn't show a recent win at this level but AMac should put in play early. Might land on the point, and if steals a quarter could be tough to beat.
6-Lachie Maguire N (5-1)-Loses AMac but Zeron knows well and he should be able to work a good trip. This 11-year-old is usually right there at the wire and has hit the board in 8 of 11 at M1 with 2 wins.
8-Rockin The Aces (3-1)-Dropped and finally popped in last and now bumps back up again where it won't be as easy. Left from the 8-hole last week and grinded it out for a picture. If the pace is honest Dunn could find a way to roll by down the lane.

Race 8

3-Wyatt J (3-1)-Four-year-old has fired hot off the bench and shoots for 2nd straight win at this class. MacDonald is back between the pipes and Wyatt likes to take pictures. Did notch 8 wins in 10 starts in 2020 and is 9 of 16 lifetime.
7-Levine (8-1)-Yonkers invader fits with this crew and raced from far back after starting from the 8 hole on 2-9. But did pace the 2nd half in .55 at YR last time. Took its lifetime mark of 151.4 on the 7/8's at VD. Interesting play looks like a solid price.
9-McMike (7/2)-Was off for over 3-weeks before last start on 2-6 and cashed a 3rd place check in a quick mile. Outside post makes the price and this Burke trainee doesn't show much gate speed. Gingras should find some live cover and could take another picture. Did win 10 of 21 in 2020. First try on the larger oval here was good and could be better tonight.

Race 9

3-Paduka N (6-1)-Drops after fading badly down the lane. There aren't any Western Joes in this field and should be able to get the top or a 2-hole trip. Won from post 9 on 1-2 at this level and could be sitting on a big try.
5-Ima Real Ladys Man (7/2)-Allard steers and he is usually aggressive. This Cullipher trainee likes to race at the top of the stack and should be there. Draws well and looks like a major threat.
6-Boiling Oar (8-1)-This the other entry from the Cullipher barn and this one should be a nice price. Versatile sort has won 28 of 72 lifetime starts. Has only 1 win in 8 starts at M1 but has done good work on the larger Hoosier oval. Looks like a must use and will hope the 8-1 morning line is correct.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,5,8/2,6,8/3,7,9/3,5,6
Total Bet=$40.50

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:54 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 2/13/21

February 13, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

Click Here to View Risen Star S.-G2 Video Analysis

Click Here to View El Camino Real Derby Video Analysis

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Sunshine Babe; 7-Big Clare; 10-Alot of Magic

Forecast: Maiden state-bred sophomore fillies sprint six furlongs on turf in the Saturday opener and we’ll focus on a pair of second-time starters exiting the fast, highly-rated Jan. 17 event won by Disko Fever, who yesterday franked the form by easily defeating a first-level allowance field. Sunshine Babe is listed at 12-1 on the morning line but we suspect is a lot better than that. The daughter of Grazen was off poorly but closed a gap to wind up fourth, adds Lasix today, and has returned to work pretty well to indicate improvement is probable. She’s from a low profile outfit but definitely has some ability. Big Clare also was slow away from the gate but then steadily advanced to wind up a willing but green third, beaten four lengths. She has every right to step forward for a barn that has powerful stats with the second-time-starter angle. We’ll also toss in Alot of Magic, a first-timer for the R. Baltas barn with a steady but unspectacular work tab at San Luis Rey Downs. She’s bred for turf on both sides of her pedigree, gets top grass rider U. Rispoli, and may be better than her moderates dirt track times indicate.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Curry

Forecast: Curry is listed as the 2/5 favorite in this five-runner first-level allowance sprint for older horses. On pure numbers he’s many lengths better than his rivals and the workouts indicate the son of Cyclotron is plenty fit for his seasonal bow. At the price he is unplayable so you can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Labor Union

Forecast: Four of the eight entrants in this maiden $50,000 claiming turf miler for 3-year-olds exit the same race, the Jan. 18 affair over this course and distance won by Goldini. Labor Union finished a game third in that race after making the pace under pressure throughout, and with just three career outings the son of Union Rags probably has more room for improvement than the others. Additionally, the P. Eurton-trained gelding has worked very well in the interim and in a race should be slowly run early he projects to be the controlling speed. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-D K’s Crown; 8-Rickey B

Forecast: D K’s Crown, now in the D. O’Neill barn, earned a career top speed figure in a sharp score at Los Alamitos in mid-December from a softer group, doing so in such a manner that suggests he can take this class hike in stride. A prior winner over the Santa Anita main track, the Dominus gelding can draft in behind the leaders and then produce his best bid when the field straightens for home. Rickey B lands the cozy outside post and projects to be either on the lead or in a comfortable stalking position. He remains above his claim level, has won on this main track in the past, and has speed figures that fit. We’ll give D K’s Crown the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Ghoul; 3-Highly Distorted; 6-Chaos Theory

Forecast: Highly Distorted is clearly the quickest in the field, and if he can shake loose again without being pressured the lightly-raced M. Puype-trained gelding could capture his third straight race while at the advanced age of six continuing his climb up the class ladder. He’ll need to produce another forward move to outrun this tougher group, but with numbers that continue to rise and with winning form over the course the son of Distorted Humor looks hard to handle at 5/2 on the morning line. Chaos Theory returns to his claim level after failing to land a blow in the Joe Hernandez S.-G2 last time out. He’s more than good enough on his best day to win but lacks tactical speed and may be at a disadvantage due to the projected race flow. Ghoul was a clever winner under these conditions two runs back but failed to duplicate that performance when fifth of six with a less-than-ideal trip in the subsequent Clocker’s Corner Stakes last month. He’s reunited with “win rider” J. Rosario and with good racing luck should be heard from late. All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Highly Distorted on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:14 PT Grade: B+
Single: 7-Captain Scotty

Forecast: This abbreviated sprint should belong to Captain Scotty, assuming the stakes-winning gelding has at least one good one left. The son of Quality Road, a fading fifth in the Palos Verdes S.-G3 here last month, returns to the $32,000 claiming ranks, and in a field lacking his kind of zip the P. Miller-trained veteran should be too quick and too classy for this moderate group. He’s 5/2 on the morning line but we suspect he’ll go lower, so we’ll make him a logical short price rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:46 PT Grade: B+
Single: 5-Kakistocracy

Forecast: Let’s take a stand and single Kakistocracy in this nine furlong state-bred first-level allowance affair on grass. Listed at 8-1 on the morning line, the son of Point of Entry had a right to be rusty when eighth (but beaten just over two lengths) in a similar event over a mile last month in what was his first start in 11 months. Rallying against slow fractions and never really being knocked about, the C. Gaines-trained gelding gets an extra furlong to work with today, retains “win rider” D. Van Dyke, and shows a strong, healthy work pattern since raced. With a win over the local lawn on his resume, the lightly-raced five-year-old gelding seems primed for a career top effort, so we’ll make him a solid play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:20 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Fair Maiden; 5-Qahira; 6-Golden Principle

Forecast: Fair Maiden looked terrific winning the La Brea S.-G1 over this track and distance in a race restricted to 3-year-olds last time out and today tackles older fillies and mares for the first time in this year’s edition of the Santa Monica S.-G2. A winner of half of her eight career starts with her most recent win producing a career top speed figure, the daughter of Street Boss likes to settle and blast home, a style that is usually most effective at this seven furlong distance. R. Gonzalez stays aboard, knows her well, and can have this E. Harty-trained filly along in time. Golden Principal, a sharp runner-up (though beaten 2 � lengths) to Fair Maiden in the La Brea, has come back to work splendidly and gets a four pound break in the weights compared to her chief rival, so it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that she can turn the tables. The B. Baffert-trained daughter of Constitution has good tactical speed and should enjoy a pace-stalking, trouble-free trip. Qahira, a winner of four of her last five starts, is another Baffert trainee that must be included somewhere on your ticket. She’s not quite as fast on pure numbers as Fair Maiden but looked good winning the listed Kalookan Queen S. last month and against this stronger group seems likely to get at least get a piece of it.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B-
Use: 8-Indian Peak; 10-Scarto; 11-Taishan

Forecast: The finale is a difficult second-level allowance turf mile for older horses with the two main contenders drawing the disadvantageous two outside post positions. Scarto and Taishan both exit a series of stakes races and will enjoy this much welcomed class drop, though both may have difficulty securing a decent trip from where they’re drawn. The former has consistently earned speed figures that can win at this level and will be running on strongly late, while the latter, freshened since November, picks up J. Rosario and ran well in graded company when a close second in the American Turf S.-G2 at Churchill Downs on Derby Day in early September. Also worth including on your ticket is Indian Peak, a non-threatening but somewhat troubled sixth of 11 in the Cal Cup Turf Classic here last month. The stakes-winning son of Comic Strip lacked room into the lane, lost some of his momentum, and really should have finished closer. He’s another that will enjoy this return to the allowance ranks and being reunited with “win rider” M. Smith.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 02-13-2021, 07:55 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Highly Distorted Looks for his third in a row, and he appears to be the controlling pace again in this spot. If nobody goes with him early, he should have enough to dig in late.
#6 Chaos Theory Graded stakes winner is the clear one to beat here, but he does his best running from off the pace, and the splits aren't likely to produce too kind a setup.
#7 Mystery Messenger He steps up in good form, and he might be just tactical enough to find a decent spying trip from this outside draw. Price player for a piece?
Race Summary Highly Distorted climbs the class ladder again here, and there doesn't appear to be anyone who can really go with him early.

Santa Anita - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 Hard Not to Love She's solid enough going long, but her best stuff has come at this 7f trip. The cutback gives her a chance to wake up and break a five-race losing streak.
#6 Golden Principal She's quick enough to get the first-over trip again today, and she proved she could stack up with this kind when second with many of these last out.
#3 Fair Maiden Scored over some of these at 20/1, but that price is long gone this afternoon. Something like her last keeps her in the mix, but I don't completely trust her to run right back to it.
Race Summary Hard Not to Love posted two big stakes wins at this local 7f trip before a string of two-turn races. She'll get back to what she does best, and it'd be no surprise to see her turn in an improved effort while getting back around one bend.

Santa Anita - Race #9
Picks Notes
#7 Award Winner He went just a bit too quick early last out, and he should be able to dictate a relatively modest tempo with this group. The 6/1 ML price would be plenty attractive.
#10 Scarto This guy earned a Grade II placing over this course in October, and he'll get out of graded stakes company for the first time in three starts. The one to beat.
#2 Encoder He's a local stakes winner at this trip, and the move around two turns gives him some room to move up after a very modest sprint run last out. That said, he may have shaken off the rust off the long layoff, and he might show up with an improved effort at a big price.
Race Summary Award Winner will hopefully find himself on a lonely sort of lead, and he stayed on well last out when just beaten by a finishing winner.