Saturday 1/30/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart

Jan 30 '21, 12:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-B | Texas A&M vs Kansas State
Play on: Kansas State +1½ -109 at Draft Kings

My College basketball side/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, injuries, road.away dichotomies are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned.

Kansas State was thoroughly embarrassed last time out vs Baylor losing by a ugly 48 point margin on 57.7 % shooting. Now looking for some redemption I expect Kansas State to deliver a very motivated effort and subsequent win in this battle of struggling programs.
KANSAS ST is 11-2 ATS L/13 in home games after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher .

TEXAS A&M is 0-6 ATS versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Kansas State to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jan 30 '21, 1:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-B | Providence vs Georgetown
Play on: Providence -4 -110 at Mirage

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Providence -4
The Providence Friars have been through the gauntlet by playing the toughest schedule in the Big East to this point. Now they are finally starting to get some very winnable games and I expect them to continue taking full advantage.
The Friars are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. They beat Butler by 16, lost to Creighton by 2, upset Creighton as double-digit road dogs, only lost at Xavier by 1, led Villanova on the road as a double-digit dog at halftime, and topped Marquette 72-63 last time out. Those results show Providence can hang with anyone in the Big East.
Now the Friars get to face one of the worst teams in the conference today in Georgetown. The Hoyas are just 1-5 in conference play this season with their only win coming against St. John's in overtime. They will definitely be rusty today as they have been off since January 9th due to a COVID break in the program. That lack of activity certainly won't help them here against a Providence team playing its best basketball of the season.
The Friars won both meetings with the Hoyas last season by 16 at home and by 10 on the road. Providence is 18-9 ATS in its last 27 conference games. The Hoyas are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a game where they had 5 or fewer offensive rebounds. Bet Providence Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 1	Exacta / Daily Double 1-2
Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 74 • Purse: $15,200 • Post: 2:45P
FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 30, 2020 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 30, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. COMPENSADOR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COMPENSADOR: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race withi n the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	COMPENSADOR	1/1	4/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	COMPENSADOR	4	1/1	Front-runner	45	68	67.3	64.5	60.5
2	EL MANA	2	5/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	38.0	30.2	26.7
3	EL DEMOLEDOR	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	36.5	19.7	13.7
1	SOY PUERTORIQUENO	1	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: EL ATOMO (10/1) [Jockey: Carrasquillo Edwin - Trainer: Lozada Wesley R].

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager $1 Pick Three
Claiming $4,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 6:28P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2021. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $3,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. EARLE GRAY is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * CAPTAIN N. BARRON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days . DREAM ON BROTHER: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. SADDLE BAR: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. TOMASINO: Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BOUNTY HUNTER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	CAPTAIN N. BARRON	4/1	5/1
2	DREAM ON BROTHER	2/1	6/1
3	SADDLE BAR	3/1	7/1
6	TOMASINO	8/1	9/1
1	BOUNTY HUNTER	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	DREAM ON BROTHER	2	2/1	Front-runner	82	81	94.7	77.8	71.8
3	SADDLE BAR	3	3/1	Front-runner	85	86	77.4	80.0	75.5
6	TOMASINO	6	8/1	Front-runner	86	84	70.4	76.8	69.3
4	CAPTAIN N. BARRON	4	4/1	Stalker	88	82	73.5	80.4	75.9
5	PAPA CABALLERO	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	80	78.6	76.2	63.7
1	BOUNTY HUNTER	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	88	78.0	71.6	60.6
7	EARLE GRAY	7	20/1	Trailer	85	84	58.6	73.0	64.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Turf. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 95

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, FOR EACH $2,000 TO $16,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 R MAN JOE 5/1
# 3 SOVEREIGN WARRIOR 6/1
# 4 NO BANG NO BOOM (IRE) 5/1

R MAN JOE has a quite good shot to take this race. Trainer has strong win rate (26 percent) at this distance and surface. Has been running soundly and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Lopez will most likely have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest. SOVEREIGN WARRIOR - In this field, this one is at the top in earnings per start in turf sprint events. Has some encouraging angles which make this one a play. NO BANG NO BOOM (IRE) - Garnered a very good speed figure last time out. The average class rating alone makes this entrant a definite contender.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Turfway Park - Race #1 - Post: 6:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 59

Rating:

#8 MOONLIGHT DANCING (ML=5/2)
#13 MIDNIGHT CLASS (ML=8/1)


MOONLIGHT DANCING - The Dec 17th contest at Turfway Park was at a class level of (71). Dropping down the ladder based on class rating points considerably, so she should be in a good spot. I have to like this filly's chances at the shorter trip. The recent bullet 36.0 work should put this filly on track for today's race. MIDNIGHT CLASS - Don't often see a lucrative return on investment like +110. This rider/handler twosome has done well together over the last twelve months. This horse comes out of a excellent barn for 1st timers. Ennis has a very solid ROI (+69 percent). Ennis is giving this one Lasix for the 1st time. I like it.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 OSPREY COURT (ML=7/2), #3 STORM THE SAZERAC (ML=5/1), #5 RONAN (ML=5/1),

OSPREY COURT - This animal likes to hit the board, but doesn't usually get the job done. Leave out of the top spot. Tough to back since I think a 'performance bounce' is in the works this time around. STORM THE SAZERAC - This horse just hasn't looked fit lately. RONAN - You always think this animal has a shot to be victorious, but she just misses often. Notched a run-of-the-mill fig last time out in a $6,250 Maiden Claiming race on December 19th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#8 MOONLIGHT DANCING is going to be the play if we are getting 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [8,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sam Houston

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 74

FOR MAIDENS, FOUR AND FIVE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 EXTREME FORCE 9/5
# 3 AMERICAN CODE 6/5
# 7 THEPERFECTSAMURAI 12/1

I back EXTREME FORCE here. Likely to see a much improved performance with the drop. With a reliable 70 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Difficult to pass on this colt with Elliott in the irons. AMERICAN CODE - Will make a good outing versus this field of horses. Appears to have a quite good class edge based on the latest company kept. THEPERFECTSAMURAI - Ought to be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last contest. His earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone makes you take a look at him.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Oaklawn Park

01/30/21, OP, Race 8, 4.40 CT
01/30/21,OP,8,6F [Dirt] 1:07:04 STAKES. American Beauty Stakes. Purse $150,000. FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. No nomination fee. $500 to pass the entry box and $1,000 additional to start. Supplementary nominations may be made by the closing time of entries at a fee of $2,000 which qualifies to start with $150,000 Guaranteed of which 60% to the Owner of the winner, 20% to second, 10% to third, 5% to fourth, 3% to fifth and 2% divided equally among all other starters. WEIGHTS: 122 lbs. Non-winners of $50,000 since September 30, 2020 allowed 3 lbs.; $35,000 since September 30, 2020 allowed 5 lbs.; $25,000 since August 30, 2020 allowed 7 lbs. (Maiden and Claiming races not considered in allowances). In Allowance Stakes starting preference will be given to horses that have accumulated the highest earnings. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. The Owner of the winner to receive a trophy. Nominations closed Thursday, January 14, 2021 with 22 nominations.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the Occurs, WPC, and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	9	Lady's Island	9/2	Cabrera D	Baxter Georgina	TL	147	31.29	1.48/$1
098.6691	1	French Empire	10/1	Gonzalez E	Contreras Cipriano	SF	147	31.29	1.48/$1
098.5089	5	Wildwood's Beauty	6/1	Rocco. Jr. J	Becker Scott	WC	147	31.29	1.48/$1
098.4480	3	Magic Dance	8/1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		147	31.29	1.48/$1
098.3080	6	Amy's Challenge	3/1	Arrieta F	Robertson McLean	J	147	31.29	1.48/$1
097.4890	7	Frank's Rockette	2/1	Geroux F	Mott William I.	E	147	31.29	1.48/$1
096.8027	2	Shesomajestic	12/1	Vazquez R A	Ortiz John Alexander		147	31.29	1.48/$1
087.5742	4	Sunny Dale	10/1	Garcia M	Hollendorfer Jerry		147	31.29	1.48/$1
086.8272	8	Best Kept Secret	20/1	Harr K	Cline Robert N.		147	31.29	1.48/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.69, ROI 0.92/$1
. . . .
100.0000 9 Lady's Island
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]RacePurseGreaterThan$50K

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Race of the Week: San Pasqual Stakes at Santa Anita

January 27, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

$200,000 GRADE 2 SAN PASQUAL AT SANTA ANITA
Saturday, January 30, 2021

The Lead:
The road to the March 6 Santa Anita Handicap picks up passengers on what's expected to be a drying-out Saturday at the Great Race Place. Expect the main track to be heavy after several inches of rain was to have dumped on Arcadia between Thursday and Friday. That will put the San Pasqual Stakes competitors on stamina alert over 1-1/8 miles.

Field Depth:
Florida invader KING GUILLERMO is the only graded stakes winner in the field, and the Grade 2 winner also is Grade 1-placed. EXPRESS TRAIN is Grade 1-placed, while Grade 2-placed runners include IDOL and ZESTFUL. TIZAMAGICIAN has placed at the Grade 3 level. The class edge goes to KING GUILLERMO.

Pace:
ZESTFUL has made the early lead in 9 of his last 10 starts, while TIZAMAGICIAN has led in his last 3 from the outset and begins from the rail. Expect those inside-outside runners to leave quickly. KING GUILLERMO also figures to be part of the early pace. IDOL and EXPRESS TRAIN will try to pick them up from the back markers.

Our Eyes:
KING GUILLERMO burst onto the scene last March in a 49-1 Tampa Bay Derby upset that looked like no fluke. He solidified that when a solid second to Nadal in the Arkansas Derby before things got curious. His connections wanted to train up to the Kentucky Derby off 4 months of just works, but the colt missed the target race with a reported fever. Boldly spotted on paper in December's Grade 1 Cigar Mile, he dueled and backed up on a wet track against what was a historically weak renewal of that race. He's had 4 January workouts perfectly spaced at his Gulfstream Park base back in Florida before traveling west. Which KING GUILLERMO do we get? From what I've seen in workout videos at XBTV.com, he's breaking off fast and eager in his works and finishing up slower. That kind of style could get him cooked in the pace here over what should be very tiring footing. I'll work against him.

IDOL has quickly advanced since his September debut at Churchill Downs and has taken up residence in Southern California since late November. The Curlin colt is a homeboy now after a good second in the Grade 2 San Antonio on Santa Anita's opening day Dec. 26. I like how he let the race come to him after easing into stride and how smooth he was down the backstretch. IDOL was in tight along the rail through the stretch and the winner came 4-wide to catch him off guard. Once he saw the oncoming rival, he jumped into the bit and galloped out past him with promise.

EXPRESS TRAIN comes off a distant second to superstar Charlatan in the Grade 1 Malibu against age-restricted company. He's yet to take on elder stakes runners, but hasn't misfired in any of his 6 dirt attempts. He'll get pace to rally into and should be finishing up well with a run-all-day pedigree and style. He broke his maiden by 14 lengths when moving from sprint-to-route in 2019 like he'll attempt in this spot.

TIZAMAGICIAN has always struck me as a major stakes player, but he didn't develop the way I had expected. Patient trainer Richard Mandella finally had him on his game at the end of the 2020 Del Mar summer meet, and he's held his form since. He won a fast-paced race wire-to-wire on Labor Day, and a slow-paced race wire-to-wire most recently Jan. 2. So he doesn't need a dawdling pace to succeed; but the tempo Saturday should be hotly contested. He'll need to run the race of his life, one he has hinted is possible, in order to put away the early challenges and be victorious.

ZESTFUL certainly isn't short of stamina, leading most of the way in the 2019 Marathon on Breeders' Cup weekend 2019. He doesn't have to negotiate 1-3/4 miles here, but his style (even going a mile in allowance company last time) doesn't change: he'll go for the lead early and try to take them as far as he can. This looks like a big hill to scale.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: IDOL has a big run over the track and sits a perfect trip.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: With a small field size, prices aren't expected.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $65 exacta IDOL over EXPRESS TRAIN; $35 exacta IDOL over TIZAMAGICIAN.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

AI Picks for Saturday's Kentucky Derby Preps

January 29, 2021 | By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s road to the Triple Crown winds through Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita for the Grade 3 Holy Bull and Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes. The premier 3-year-old preps will provide a distance test for some and a class test for all. To help you decipher the contenders, the app’s artificial intelligence handicapping has been provided to give projections on each horse in the Holy Bull and Lewis.

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Gulfstream Park // Race 11 // Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes // 4:50 pm ET

#6 Prime Factor // 25%W // 43%P // 58%S
#7 Greatest Honour // 19%W // 38%P // 50%S
#4 Amount // 13%W // 28%P // 41%S
#8 Sittin On Go // 11%W // 21%P // 29%S
#2 Willy Boi // 10%W // 22%P // 40%S
#9 Awesome Gerry // 8%W // 16%P // 27%S
#1 Jirafales // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S
#3 Papetu // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S
#5 Tarantino // 5%W // 11%P // 18%S

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Santa Anita Park // Race 7 // Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes // 6:37 pm ET

#3 Parnelli // 26%W // 44%P // 61%S
#8 Spielberg // 20%W // 39%P // 53%S
#4 Hot Rod Charlie // 13%W // 30%P // 44%S
#2 Rombauer // 12%W // 22%P // 31%S
#1 Medina Spirit // 10%W // 23%P // 43%S
#5 Roman Centurian // 9%W // 17%P // 29%S
#6 Waspirant // 5%W // 12%P // 20%S
#7 Wipe the Slate // 5%W // 12%P // 20%S

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eddie Olczyk’s Saturday Spot Plays: January 30

January 29, 2021 | By Eddie Olczyk

NBC Sports handicapper Eddie Olczyk turns his attention for a pair of key Saturday bets to Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. Follow Edzo’s plays each week

Oaklawn Park

Race 6 // 4:38 pm ET // allowance // 6 furlongs

#5 Many Sweet Treats (10-1 ML)

Lots of value to be found in this state-bred race. Many Sweet Treats runs hard every time and can be tactical in terms of pace. Notice that she was claimed for $15k last time out in open company at Remington Park. I believe she has been aimed for, and waiting to run against, her own kind in this Arkansas-bred spot. Win-place and a daily double bet with my spot play in the next race.

Oaklawn Park

Race 7 // 5:09 pm ET // maiden claiming // 6 furlongs

#12 Shes Got It (5-1 ML)

Honor Code filly will get plenty of pace to run at from her outside post position. Her initial try in November at Churchill Downs was a very good run. I like how her trainer, Wayne ‘The Cat’ Catalano, protects this filly in this start, waiving the claiming tag; I will take that as a great sign. Win bet.

Good luck this weekend!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Late Pick 4 Analysis

January 30, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

The Meadowlands has a 14-race card on tap for this evening. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 10 and it will be my focus. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout.

Last night the drivers with the hottest hands in East Rutherford were Todd McCarthy and Simon Allard with 3 winners each. Jeff Cullipher was the leading trainer with 2 trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

5-Decision Day (8-1)-In sharp from, dops to a more comfortable level and Callahan steers again. Likes the Big M winning of 8 of 40 and has hit the board in 13 other starts. Looks like a solid threat with this post draw.
6-Repect Our Flag (10-1)-Price shot is worth a swing making 3rd consecutive start, for team Joe-Bo/Jen Bo, and that hasn't happened in almost 2 months. Regular pilot is at the controls and will look for an aggressive steer.
7-Western Fame (9/2)-Did make 1st Big M appearance this meet in last and was in the hunt racing near the top of the stack until fading down the lane. Does have good gate speed and Stratton may use it and get close-up seat. Looks like a player at a square price.

Race 11

1-Cinnamack (12-1)-The Auciello barn hasn't been as effective as it is in Canada, but I have seen this movie before. Drops, draws inside, should be forwardly placed and has beaten better than this crew. Dunn steers and that shouldn't hurt.
2-Another Daily Copy (6-1)-Hasn't raced since 11/21 but did qualify nicely on 1/23 and fits. Has had success here making 29% of lifetime starts at the Big M. Scotty Z was driving #5 and will add points for this being his choice. Could take a photo if fires hot off the bench.
6-Ollies's Ztam (5-1)-Gingras got on the engine last week and may have received too much respect. This won't be as easy but has won 3 of 14 starts in East Rutherford and there aren't any monsters in this field.

Race 12

1-Brigadoon (3-1)-Should relish the post relief and looks like a player but will need the right trip. Has the pilot who could use a well-timed move to sweep by. Doesn't win often (1-20), but Dunn steers and could be over bet.
3-Rock On Line (7/2)-Winner of 2 straight is back at the Big M. Normally looking for 3 in a row at this level would be something to fade for me. But has had success here and if Allard can work an alert start this 7-year-old could trip out for a 3-peat.
5-Ruthless Dude (10-1)-Comes off 2 even efforts on smaller ovals and has hit the board in 4 of 8 starts here including 2 wins. Shows good speed at M1 and TMac has options from this post.

Race 13

5-Warrawee Unique (3-1)-Dropped and took control last week and was able to set soft fractions. This will be the 3rd start off the bench and could dial it up off the last win. Burke trainee has won 3 of 13 at M1 and it's best to not overlook.
7-Barbados (15-1)-This post draw isn't great but has started from post 9 in the last 2 starts. My guess is the pace should be lively and could be the best finisher in the field.
8-Saying Grace N (5-1)-One of a couple of Cullipher trainee's in this group and he had a 2 wins last night. Grace has shown good speed in the last 2 races. The start will be key, and Allard will probably blast out. Has a big shot if the trip is friendly and should be a solid price.

0.50 Late Pick 4

5,6,7/1,2,6/1,3,5/5,7,8
Total Bet=$40.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 1/30/21

January 30, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


Click to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report


RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bossy Mama; 4-Our Little Tiger; 7-Ensleys Dream

Forecast: Bossy Mama has trained like a quick filly and if she leaves with her field the daughter of Street Boss could take this field of straight maiden state-bred 3-year-old fillies a very long way. She breezed three furlongs in a blistering :33 flat last year at the OBS April Sale (after which she brought $52,000 through the ring) and she’s displayed similar early zip in recent workouts leading up her racing debut. However, the Cal-bred daughter of Street Boss has had difficulty changing leads, and if she doesn’t switch over when set down for the drive the final furlong might prove worrisome. Our Little Tiger wound up a disappointing fifth in a similar affair on grass two weeks ago but her dirt works showed promise so we suspect she might be more effective on the main track. The daughter of Smiling Tiger should be doing her best work from off the pace, and at 6-1 on the morning line is worth using in rolling exotic play. Ensleys Dream, in the frame in all three of her starts as a 2-year-old, makes her first p.m. appearance since November and gets Lasix, F. Prat and a cozy outside draw. Her speed figures are just average and she’s lost ground from the furlong pole to the wire in each of her outings but with the addition of Lasix today the B. Koriner-trained filly may be able to finish a little better.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Tiz Toffee; 2-Canadian Ginger

Forecast: Tiz Toffee is a winner of her last six starts but was a voided claim when last seen in early September and was stopped on. The veteran mare returns at a higher level than she was competing for – a confident sign – and as a three-time winner over the Santa Anita main track the daughter of Sidney’s Candy will be hard to beat if she’s fit and ready for a low profile but highly-capable outfit. Canadian Ginge is the one to fear most. A winner at this same $20,000 claiming price at Los Alamitos last month, the daughter of Flatter and can take heat and dish and it out, and certainly can win if she fires her best shot. The two main contenders are tough to separate but because both are projected to be short prices we’ll double the race in rolling exotic play but otherwise sit it out.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Use: 5-Twirling Derby; 7-Full Draw

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden $20,000 main track miler for older horses doesn’t offer much to work with. Twirling Derby, a 10-race maiden, has finished second in each of his last three outings and not much improvement will be needed to earn his diploma, though at 2-1 on the morning line he’s not going to offer much value. Full Draw finished more than three lengths behind ‘Derby when they met here a couple of weeks ago over seven furlongs, but the son of Union Rags should improve at today’s longer distance. In another race that might otherwise be best left alone, both are worth inclusion in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: X
Use: 2-This Tea; 3-Lookintogeteven

Forecast: This Tea, listed at 4/5 on the morning line, has been stuck on seconds in her last four starts but might finally be able to break through in this main track dirt miler for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Curlin earned a huge speed figure when a distant second to future stakes star As Time Goes By in a similar affair two weeks ago and anything close that effort today lands her in the winner’s circle. Lookintogeteven, a 10-race maiden, finished an okay third in her only prior outing on the main track so perhaps this daughter of Ghostzapper will appreciate the return to dirt. She likes to lag and then finish a bit and if the pace comes up decent, she could make some noise late.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:33 PT Grade: B+
Single: 2-Idol

Forecast: Idol is lightly-raced, improving, and ready to take his place among the best older horses on the West Coast. The son of Curlin, an excellent runner-up in the San Antonio S.-G2 opening day, has trained extremely well since and should thoroughly enjoy today’s longer nine furlong trip. With enough tactical speed to always be within range and the ability to kick home when called upon, the R. Baltas-trained colt appears set to take his game to a new level so at 9/5 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Speed Pass; 3-Loud Mouth

Forecast: Loud Mouth, a respectable fourth in the Cal Cup Sprint two weeks ago, returns to the second level allowance ranks and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip and then have every chance to wear down the likely front-runner Speed Pass close home. The quick turnaround is of some concern, but the son of Boisterous, a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and very consistent in the speed figure department, retains regular rider A. Cedillo and can be counted on to fire another big shot. Speed Pass, away for almost a year, is the quickest in the field and will take this group as far as he can on the front end. The son of Bodemeister has a history of firing fresh for a barn that hits with a strong 21% with come-backers, so with J. Rosario taking the call we’re anticipating that this B. Baffert-trained gelding will get loose on the lead and be dangerous.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:37 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Medina Spirit; 4-Hot Rod Charlie

Forecast: Medina Spirit followed a sharp debut maiden win at Los Alamitos in December with an even more impressive performance when second to his highly-regarded stable mate Life Is Good in the Sham S.-G3 earlier this month, closing resolutely to be beaten less than a length while 13 lengths clear of the rest in an extremely fast, highly-rated race. The son of the first crop Giant’s Causeway stallion Protonico has returned to work smartly in the interim, so we’re expecting a similar performance, perhaps even better. From the rail he can secure a ground-saving, stalking trip and then have dead aim when the pressure gets turned on. Hot Rod Charlie, 94-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after breaking his maiden over this track during the fall season, left that form behind with a superior runner-up effort behind champion Essential Quality and is another that has trained impressively since to expect another forward move today. The son of Oxbow switches to J. Rosario and it wouldn’t be surprising if he gave ‘Spirit with a serious challenge. We’ll give Medina Spirit the edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:09 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Cousin Eddie; 9-Sabuda; 12-Gabby Hayes

Forecast: The finale is a wide-open maiden claimer for 3-year-olds and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as your budget allows. Sabuda and Gabby Hayes, three-four finishers in a much tougher maiden special weight state-bred sprint just eight days ago, meet again on the class drop and both should be highly competitive. The former has good early speed and should stick much better against this group while the latter projects to enjoy a stalking trip outside and then have a chance to make his presence felt from the quarter pole home. Cousin Eddie, a first-timer at 15-1 on the morning line, represents stranger danger from the R. Ellis barn. The son of Eddington has shown a bit of ability in a.m. trials for a stable whose first-timers often run much better than they work. Beware.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jon White's Holy Bull & Robert B. Lewis Picks

January 27, 2021 | By Jon White

Kentucky Derby points will be up for grabs this Saturday in both Florida and California when the Holy Bull Stakes is presented at Gulfstream Park and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes is run at Santa Anita Park.

The Holy Bull is a Grade III race at 1 1/16 miles, as is the Lewis. Nine are entered in the Holy Bull. The Lewis has drawn a field of eight.

My Holy Bull selections are below:

1. Greatest Honour
2. Prime Factor
3. Amount
4. Papetu

Greatest Honour, trained by Hall of Famer Shug McGaughey, lost his first three career starts before winning a Dec. 26 maiden race by 1 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream. The colt is a Kentucky-bred son of Tapit and Tiffany’s Honour.

Tiffany’s Honour, a daughter of Street Cry (sire of the great Zenyatta), is a half-sister to a pair of winners of the Grade I Belmont Stakes in Jazil and Rags to Riches. One can only hope that Rags to Riches, who was voted a 2007 Eclipse Award as champion 3-year-old filly, takes her rightful place in the Hall of Fame this year. Todd Pletcher, the trainer of Rags to Riches, is a cinch to go into the Hall of Fame this year in his first year of eligibility.

Speaking of Pletcher, he trains Prime Factor, who turned a six-furlong maiden contest into no contest with his 8 3/4-length triumph when unveiled Dec. 12 at Gulfstream. The Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt is being asked to race around two turns for the first time this Saturday.

Pletcher also has Amount entered in the Holy Bull. The Kentucky-bred Curlin colt won a maiden race by 5 3/4 lengths at first asking Dec. 26 at Gulfstream.

Papetu is coming off a second in Gulfstream’s Mucho Macho Man on Jan. 2 for trainer Antonio Sano. The Mucho Macho Man winner, Mutasaabeq, was supposed to have run in the Holy Bull, but he must miss the race after he emerged from his sharp four-furlong workout in :47.37 last Saturday at Palm Beach Downs with what Pletcher has characterized as a setback.

My Lewis selections are below:

1. Medina Spirit
2. Hot Rod Charlie
3. Roman Centurian
4. Spielberg

Medina Spirit’s 99 is the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure by far of the Lewis entrants. The Florida-bred Protonico colt recorded that figure when he finished second, three-quarters of a length behind Life Is Good, in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 2. In his only previous start, Medina Spirit won a Dec. 11 maiden race by three lengths at Los Alamitos when receiving a 76 Beyer.

I like Hot Rod Charlie’s improved form since blinkers were added to his equipment. In his first three starts, all losses, Hot Rod Charlie’s Beyer Speed Figures were 51, 56 and 57. With blinkers, Hot Rod Charlie won an Oct. 2 maiden race at Santa Anita and recorded a 78 Beyer, then ran second at odds of 94-1 in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6. His BC Juvenile figure was a 94.

Doug O’Neill trains Hot Rod Charlie, a Kentucky-bred son of 2013 Preakness Stakes winner Oxbow. O’Neill has won the Kentucky Derby with I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Nyquist in 2016.

O’Neill also is represented in the Lewis by Wipe the Slate. In his career debut, the Kentucky-bred Nyquist colt finished a distant second to Life Is Good in a Nov. 22 maiden race at Del Mar. Wipe the Slate then won a maiden race by 3 1/4 lengths at Santa Anita on Dec. 26.

When Life Is Good and Wipe the Slate ran one-two on Nov. 22, Roman Centurian finished fourth. Roman Centurian then improved dramatically to win a Jan. 3 maiden race at 1 1/16 miles by 3 3/4 lengths at Santa Anita for trainer Simon Callaghan. As good as Roman Centurian looked in his maiden victory, he could make a lot of noise in the Lewis.

Spielberg, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, is coming off a nose victory in the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity. That performance subsequently was flattered when the runner-up, The Great One, won a maiden race by 14 lengths at Santa Anita last Saturday.

CADDO RIVER MAKES A SPLASH ON DERBY TOP 10

Caddo River debuts on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week all the way up at No. 3 following his dominant victory last Friday in which he won Oaklawn Park’s one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes by 10 1/4 lengths as the 3-5 favorite.

Trained by Brad Cox, Caddo River recorded a 77 Beyer when second at first asking in a maiden sprint last Sept. 5 at Saratoga. That was followed by an 87 Beyer when the runner-up at Belmont Park on Oct. 11 in another maiden sprint.

In Caddo River’s final 2020 start, he posted an 83 Beyer when he won a one-mile maiden race Nov. 15 at Churchill Downs by 9 1/2 lengths. He was credited with a 92 Beyer for his Smarty Jones tour de force.

According to Cox, Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on March 13 is likely to be Caddo River’s next start, followed by Oaklawn’s Grade I Arkansas Derby on April 10, then the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.

Caddo River races for John Ed Anthony’s Shortleaf Stable. When racing as Loblolly Stable, Anthony won the Arkansas Derby in 1980 with Temperence Hill and in 1992 with Pine Bluff.

Hard Spun, runner-up to Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby, is Caddo River’s sire.

Lecomte winner Midnight Bourbon exits my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week to make room for Caddo River.

This is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:

1. Essential Quality
2. Life Is Good
3. Caddo River
4. Concert Tour
5. Prime Factor
6. Hot Rod Charlie
7. Keepmeinmind
8. Medina Spirit
9. Senor Buscador
10. Jackie’s Warrior

AN EARLY 2021 THOROUGHBRED TOP 10

The first polls of 2021 conducted by the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) are not far away. A final determination has not been made yet, but the first NTRA polls of 2021 likely will be on Feb. 17, according to Alicia Hughes, director of NTRA communications.

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll will end on the Monday following the Breeders’ Cup. That means this year the final poll will be on Nov. 7 following the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar on Nov. 5-6.

The NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll will end on the Monday following the Grade I Belmont Stakes. That means this year the final poll is scheduled for June 7 following the June 5 Belmont Stakes.

These rankings are indicative of who might be crowned a divisional champion and, moreover, Horse of the Year. The rankings are based on votes cast by members of the media who regularly cover Thoroughbred racing. The voters select their Top 10 choices on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points basis.

Horses are to have raced at least once in North America. A horse who may have retired during the current calendar year remains eligible. Additionally, a horse can receive a vote even though the horse has not made a start in the new calendar year so long as the said horse is scheduled to race in the new calendar year.

As a longtime voter in the NTRA polls, I went ahead and decided how I would have voted in the Top Thoroughbred Poll if there had been one this week. Here is my Top 10:

1. Knicks Go
2. Charlatan
3. Monomoy Girl
4. Swiss Skydiver
5. Essential Quality
6. Gamine
7. Channel Maker
8. Whitmore
9. Colonel Liam
10. Jesus’ Team

Below was the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for 2020:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 355 Authentic (34)
2. 311 Improbable (2)
3. 309 Monomoy Girl (1)
4. 132 Vekoma
5. 111 Swiss Yodeler
6. 107 Tiz the Law
7. 104 Gamine
8. 100 Rushing Fall
9. 97 Whitmore
10. 82 Maximum Security

Also receiving votes: Knicks Go (76 points), Global Campaign (59), Tom’s d’Etat (41), Midnight Bisou (31), Channel Maker (22), By My Standards (20), Essential Quality (10), Code of Honor (9), Serengeti Empress (9), Tacitus (8), Glass Slippers (7), Happy Saver (6), Vequist (5), Volatile (5), Tarnawa (5), Uni (3), United (2), Nashville (2), C Z Rocket (2), Mo Forza (2), Mystic Guide (1), Starship Jubilee (1), Golden Pal (1).

FAVORED KNICKS GO WINS PEGASUS WORLD CUP

Seizing the lead at once, 6-5 favorite Knicks Go essentially told his 11 foes in last Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Pegasus World Cup Invitational at Gulfstream Park to “catch me if you can.”

They could not.

When Knicks Go reached the eighth pole with a three-length advantage, it was evident that his gas tank was nowhere close to empty. Maintaining a clear lead throughout the final furlong, he prevailed by 2 3/4 lengths while being asked to race farther than he ever had before. Jesus’ Team came in second at odds of 11-1. Independence Hall, off at odds of 27-1, finished third, a neck behind Jesus’ Team.

Code of Honor, the 4-1 second choice in the wagering, raced ninth early, never threatened and ended up fifth. Tax, at 5-1 the only starter under 10-1 besides the winner and Code of Honor, raced in contention through the early furlongs to the stretch, faltered and finished 10th.

When trained by Ben Colebrook, Knicks Go won two of his first 14 starts. At 2 in 2018, the Maryland-bred son of Paynter was good enough to win the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland and finish second to Game Winner in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

In Knicks Go’s final start at 3, the gray/roan son of Paynter finished next-to-last among 11 participants in the Grade III Commonwealth Turf at Churchill on Nov. 9, 2019. Brad Cox subsequently took over the training duties.

For Cox, Knicks Go has been unbeatable so far, winning four races by 7 1/2, 10 1/4, 3 1/2 and 2 3/4 lengths. He’s now been victorious in back-to-back Grade I events, the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and 2021 Pegasus World Cup.

When conditioned by Colebrook, Knicks Go had a top Beyer Speed Figure of 93. For Cox, Knicks Go has reeled off Beyers of 100, 107, 108, then another 108 for his performance last Saturday.

At the end of the first quarter of this year’s Pegasus, Knicks Go led by just a half-length over Last Judgment. At the end of the first half, Knicks Go’s lead was 1 1/2 lengths.

In four of the past five editions of the Pegasus, the winner had the lead with three furlongs left to run, then remained in front the rest of the way.

Knicks Go sported a 1 1/2-length lead with three furlongs left to run. He remained in front the rest of the way.

NBC’s Randy Moss, a keen student of pace, admitted that when he saw the early fractions, he thought Knicks Go might be going too fast too early.

“This was not a perfect trip by any stretch of the imagination for Knicks Go when Last Judgment went out there and ran with him like that in the early part of the race,” Moss said. “You just look at the fractional times. The first quarter in :22.90, the half :46.16, 1:09.91 for three quarters of a mile. Going a mile and an eighth at Gulfstream Park, when you look at the history of those races, that is scorching.”

In fact, Knicks Go actually ran the fastest opening quarter by quite a bit in the brief history of the Pegasus. Prior to Knicks Go’s :22.90, the quickest initial quarter clocking was Collected’s :23.41 in 2018. Collected went on to finish seventh, 16 1/2 lengths behind the victorious Gun Runner.

Knicks Go not only has led past every pole in each of his last four starts, he has done so in all six of his career victories. No doubt many therefore will jump to the conclusion that he would be vulnerable if he ever does not get the early lead. Maybe. Or maybe not.

I think there is a chance that Knicks Go does not need the early lead in order to win. I say that because he has not been the least bit rank or headstrong when setting the pace. It appears to me that he might well be able to sit off the pace and still win. Of course, one never knows until they actually do it.

Going into Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes, many questioned whether Charlatan could win if he did not get the early lead. I thought there was a good chance that he would be able to win from off the pace because, again, he was not the sort who had been rank early in his races.

In the Malibu, Charlatan did not get the early lead for the first time in his career. Nashville dashed immediately to the front and set the early pace. Charlatan was content to cruise along in the early stages while sitting one to 1 1/2 lengths off Nashville.

Charlatan ranged up to reach even terms with Nashville turning into the stretch. And then Charlatan burst away from Nashville in upper stretch to open a four-length lead at the eighth pole while on his way to a 4 1/2-length victory to prove he could win from off the pace. Nashville finished fourth, 8 1/4 lengths behind Charlatan.

Somewhere down the line, I will not be surprise if Knicks Go likewise shows that he can win from off the pace.

Charlatan and Knicks Go might clash in the $20 million Saudi Cup at 1,800 meters (about 1 1/8 miles) on Feb. 20. It’s the world’s richest horse race. Charlatan, who worked six furlongs in 1:12.60 on Wednesday at Santa Anita, is scheduled to make his next start in the Saudi Cup. The opulent event also is under consideration for Knicks Go, according to Cox.

As for Jesus’ Team, he once again hit the board at a nice price in the betting last Saturday. Sent away at 12-1, he came home well enough to defeat everyone but Knicks Go. Jesus’ Team finished third at 40-1 in last year’s Grade I Preakness Stakes at Pimlico and second at an even bigger 62-1 in the BC Dirt Mile.

The $1 Knicks Go-Jesus’ Team exacta in the BC Dirt Mile paid $109.80. The $1 exacta combining the same two horses in the same order last Saturday returned $21.50.

LIFE IS GOOD FAVORED IN CHURCHILL’S FUTURE WAGER

Undefeated Life Is Good was backed down to 7-1 favoritism among the 23 individual horses in Churchill Downs’ KDFW Pool 2 that closed last Sunday. Essential Quality, also yet to taste defeat, was a close second choice at 8-1.

The actual 9-5 favorite in Pool 2 was the “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings” option.

Life Is Good is two for two after winning Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 2 for Baffert. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt recorded a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. Life Is Good is expected to make his next start in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 6.

Essential Quality is three for three after winning the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland on Nov. 6 for Cox. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt also won Keeneland’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity on Oct. 3. According to Cox, Essential Quality will make his 2021 debut in Oaklawn Park’s Grade III Southwest Stakes at 1 1/16 miles on Feb. 15, Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh reported Tuesday.

Below are the final odds for Pool 2 of the 2021 KDFW:

9-5 “All Other 3-Year-Old Males”
7-1 Life Is Good
8-1 Essential Quality
13-1 Caddo River
16-1 Concert Tour
19-1 Keepmeinmind
21-1 Prime Factor
23-1 Jackie’s Warrior
24-1 Highly Motivated
24-1 Medina Spirit
26-1 Bezos
26-1 Midnight Bourbon
34-1 Senor Buscador
40-1 Greatest Honour
40-1 Hot Rod Charlie
42-1 Mandaloun
45-1 Fire At Will
47-1 Mutasaabeq
47-1 Spielberg
48-1 Prate
64-1 Olympiad
66-1 Capo Kane
76-1 Proxy
87-1 Wipe the Slate

POPULAR TALK SHOW HOST LARRY KING DIES

Radio, television and internet talk show host Larry King died last Saturday at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles. He was 87.

In a statement, the production company Orca Media said King had been hospitalized with COVID-19 earlier this month.

“In a career that spanned half a century, King became one of the most famous talk show hosts and opinion shapers in the world with his breezy, rarely confrontational style of banter, leading his guests this way and that, where his curiosity took him,” said King’s obituary in the Los Angeles Times.

“King ended his long-running CNN program in 2010 but returned to television again and again as a moderator and, occasionally, pitchman. During his 25 years presiding over ‘Larry King Live,’ the first international live phone-in TV talk show, King was variously dubbed in the press ‘America’s yak-master,’ the ‘pope of talk’ and the ‘top banana of talk-show hosts.’ ”

Born in Brooklyn, N.Y., King was a huge Dodgers fan. For a time he worked for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He often could be spotted on television sitting behind home plate at Dodger Stadium.

King also was a horse racing fan.

In his autobiography, “My Remarkable Journey,” King wrote about a trip to Calder Race Course in 1971 at the age of 37. At the time, King was out of a job and a couple of thousand dollars in debt.

A filly named Lady Forli caught King’s attention. Lady Forli was running against males. She was 70-1. King figured that because Lady Forli had won in more or less the same company three races back, she should have been more like 20-1.

King wrote: “When the race began, I had two dollars left to my name -- and that was for the valet.”

Yes, Lady Forli won. King not only bet $10 to win on her, he hit the exacta and trifecta.

“I collected nearly eight thousand dollars. Eight thousand dollars! It had to be one of the happiest moments of my life -- certainly the most exciting,” King wrote.

A few years later, King worked in public relations for a time at Louisiana Downs.

In 1978, King’s broadcasting career took off when the “Larry King Show” was launched on radio stations from coast to coast by the Mutual Broadcasting System. That radio program debuted on 28 stations. By the early 1980s, the show was being carried on nearly 250 Mutual affiliates in all 50 states.

I remember listening to King’s radio show one evening in the 1970s when the subject was horse racing and the guests were a couple of handicappers, Andy Beyer and Clem Florio. Back then, I was working for the Daily Racing Form at tracks in the Pacific Northwest. I later would get know both Beyer and Florio.

King’s radio show led to CNN’s popular “Larry King Live,” which began in 1985 and ended on Dec. 16, 2010. “Larry King Live” became CNN’s longest-running program.

One day in the 1980s, I met King in the Santa Anita press box. We had a nice chat. I told him that I had listened to and enjoyed his radio program, especially whenever Beyer and Florio were the guests. I also mentioned that I too had worked at Louisiana Downs in 1970s.

Rest in peace, Larry King.

ECLIPSE AWARD PREDICTIONS

The Eclipse Awards were established 50 years ago to recognize excellence in Thoroughbred racing. The 2020 finalists were revealed earlier this month. The winners will be announced Thursday on TVG, Racetrack Television Network and various streaming outlets.

The first year that I made Eclipse Award predictions for Xpressbet.com was for racing that was conducted in 2011. Now including 2019, my Eclipse Award predictions have proven to be correct 92.2% of the time:

2011: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2012: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2013: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2014: 17 correct, 0 wrong
2015: 14 correct, 3 wrong
2016: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2017: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2018: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2019: 15 correct, 2 wrong

Total: 141 correct, 12 wrong

Remember, these are my predictions, not who I think should win or who I voted for.

And now here are my predictions for the 2020 Eclipse Awards:

2-YEAR-OLD MALE

Finalists (alphabetically): Essential Quality, Fire At Will, Jackie’s Warrior
Predicted Winner: Essential Quality

2-YEAR-OLD FILLY

Finalists: Aunt Pearl, Dayoutoftheoffice, Vequist
Predicted Winner: Vequist

3-YEAR-OLD MALE

Finalists: Authentic, Nadal, Tiz the Law
Predicted Winner: Authentic

3-YEAR-OLD FILLY

Finalists: Gamine, Shedaresthedevil, Swiss Skydiver
Predicted Winner: Swiss Skydiver

OLDER DIRT MALE

Finalists: Improbable, Maximum Security, Vekoma
Predicted Winner: Improbable

OLDER DIRT FEMALE

Finalists: Midnight Bisou, Monomoy Girl, Serengeti Empress
Predicted Winner: Monomoy Girl

MALE SPRINTER

Finalists: Vekoma, Volatile, Whitmore
Predicted Winner: Whitmore

FEMALE SPRINTER

Finalists: Gamine, Glass Slippers, Serengeti Empress
Predicted Winner: Gamine

MALE TURF

Finalists: Channel Maker, Order of Australia, Zulu Alpha
Predicted Winner: Channel Maker

FEMALE TURF

Finalists: Audarya, Rushing Fall, Tarnawa
Predicted Winner: Rushing Fall

STEEPLECHASE

Finalists: Moscato, Rashaan, Snap Decision
Predicted Winner: Moscato

TRAINER

Finalists: Steve Asmussen, Bob Baffert, Brad Cox
Predicted Winner: Brad Cox

JOCKEY

Finalists: Irad Ortiz Jr., Joel Rosario, John Velazquez
Predicted Winner: Irad Ortiz Jr.

APPRENTICE JOCKEY

Finalists: Luis Cardenas, Yarmarie Correa, Alexander Crispin
Predicted Winner: Luis Cardenas

OWNER

Finalists: Godolphin Racing; Klaravich Stables; Spendthrift Farm, MyRacehorse Stable, Madaket Stables and Starlight Racing
Predicted Winner: Spendthrift Farm, MyRacehorse Stable, Madaket Stables and Starlight Racing

BREEDER

Finalists: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, Calumet Farm, WinStar Farm
Predicted Winner: WinStar Farm

HORSE OF THE YEAR

Finalists: Authentic, Improbable, Monomoy Girl
Predicted Winner: Authentic

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Siegel is Profitable & Gulfstream Pick 4 Play

January 28, 2021 | By Johnny D

Veteran handicapper and host Jeff Siegel turned a profit Saturday when he picked 4 winners out of 10 competition races in Week 4 Beat the Host action. His winning total was $56, based on $5 Win wagers on one horse in each race.

Usually, Beat the Host competition races are a combination of heats from Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park. However, last weekend, in conjunction with the rich and challenging Pegasus World Cup card, all Beat the Host races were decided at Gulfstream Park.

Siegel began the afternoon with a pair of short-priced winners: Performer ($3.80) in race 4 the Gr. 3 Fred W. Hooper and Always Shopping ($4) in race 8 the Gr. 3 La Prevoyante. He later added favored Knicks Go ($4.60) in the main event the Gr. 1, $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Siegel’s best-priced winner of the afternoon came in the 10th race with Tide of the Sea ($10) in the Gr. 3 W. L. McKnight.

The host’s solid Week 4 performance trimmed the list of ‘live’ Sweep the Host prize contenders from 8 to 5 with as many weeks of competition remaining. Steve Glynn, Darlene Wolfson, Lou Kotzman, Scott Shore and John Maskel remain in contention for a $6,000 prize that goes to any single player that can defeat hosts in all 9 weeks of competition. There is a $2,000 consolation prize to the last member of the group to lose to the host.

Week 4 horseplay also resulted in a change atop the Total Winnings leaderboard. Craig Yoshino, who led all players Saturday with $185 in weekly earnings, leapfrogged several competitors to gain sole possession of the lead in the season-long cumulative earnings race. He now has $288, just $13.50 ahead of Andrew Ma and previous pacesetter Steve Glynn at $274.50 each. The top 2 finishers based on cumulative seasonal earnings win seats in the 2022 Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship--$6,000 value each. The next 3 players earn spots in the Ultimate Betting Challenge Saturday, March 6, 2021—$3,000 value each.

Yoshino’s weekly earnings figure of $185 is the highest achieved this season and topped Joseph St. Pierre ($174.50) to collect a $2,000 weekly first prize. The runner-up earned $1,500 and Greg Peterson, who was third ($164), bagged $500. Top prize totals were juiced this week because of a carryover from Week 3. That competition, hosted by Santa Anita linemaker Jon White, was cancelled due to technical issues and Saturday’s prize totals subsequently were doubled from $2,000 to $4,000.

After 4 Weeks of action, 371 players have qualified for the Beat the Host Championship that includes as prizes: 1 seat to the 2022 Pegasus World Cup Betting Championship ($6,000 value) and 6 seats to either the Florida Derby (March 21, 2021) or Santa Anita Derby (April 3, 2021)-- $1,500 values each.

It’s not too late to register free for Beat the Host and to play each week in pursuit of $2,000 in prizes and coveted rich tournament seats available to top players based on cumulative seasonal earnings. Plus, beat the host once to qualify for the Championship Round where players can win an assortment of lucrative future tournament seats.

All it takes to play is a ‘live’ $5 Win wager on one horse in each of 10 competition races. Beat the host once to qualify for the Championship and top all players to earn weekly and seasonal prizes. And, since Beat the Host wagers are ‘live,’ players keep what they win. Pick a few winners along the way and you could make a few bucks even without winning a prize.

This week’s host is unlike any other. For the first time, Beat the Host players will face off against 1/st Bet’s Artificial Intelligence selections. That’s right, this week it’s man against computer with $2,000 in weekly prizes and Beat the Host Championship seats on the line.

Below is analysis and selections for Gulfstream races 9 through 12, otherwise known as the Late Pick 4. Unfortunately, in my house, it goes by a different name, the ‘Late Pick 3 out of 4.’ Hopefully, the information below will aid humans in their Saturday struggle against Artificial Intelligence in Beat the Host. At this point in worldwide history, humans can use all the help they can get.

GULFSTREAM LATE PICK 4 ANALYSIS & PICKS

RACE 9 // GULFSTREAM PARK (3:46PM ET) // G3 FORWARD GAL S. ($100K) // 7 FURLONGS (DIRT)

Kick all things Pick 4 off with the Grade 3 Forward Gal for 3-year-old fillies at seven furlongs. It appears that there are two logical contenders to deal with. Of course, fillies sometimes can be tricky, so keep your options open.


#2 THREE TIPSY CHIX: Exploded from off the pace to win a maiden sprint last out for trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey Julian Leparoux. That race was in November and was the third career start for this daughter of Medaglia d’Oro. Wilkes, who’s having a rough start to the Gulfstream meeting (0-21), brings stock along slowly, and this one is moving in the right direction.

#3 COMPETITIVE SPEED: Has won her last 3 out of 4 starts, 2 of those wins at Gulfstream, including the Glitter Woman by a dominating 3 lengths last out. With those credentials, she must be respected. She races for low-profile connections, but a loaded gun is dangerous in anyone’s hands.

#6 LADY TRAVELER: Hasn’t started since November, when she made a failed longshot try in the Gr. 2 Golden Rod around two turns at Churchill. Before that she was second in the one mile and one-sixteenth Rags to Riches. Back around one turn going seven furlongs may be a better trip for her. She’s an outsider in here.

#7 ZAAJEL: Won by more than 7 lengths in fast time first out for top trainer Todd Pletcher going seven furlongs at Gulfstream in late December. Since that romp, she’s worked every 7 days, including a :59 4/5 move at Palm Beach Downs. You know the old ‘death, taxes and Todd Pletcher at Gulfstream’ saying? Well, here it is in flesh and blood. Pretty much have to use this daughter of Street Sense and she will be a single for many.

#8 COACH JET'S JOY: Decisively won her first start at Gulfstream Park West over a sloppy track on Halloween. She’s worked sporadically since then, but a six furlong move in 1:13 1/5 Jan. 16 is interesting. Top jock Irad Ortiz rides from a cozy outside post for 21% trainer Saffie Joseph and they’re 41% together in 37 tries! Could be an option for anti-Pletcher players.


RACE 10 // GULFSTREAM PARK (4:18PM ET) // G3 SWEETEST CHANT S. ($100K) //1 MILE (TURF)

Soph fillies gather for another Grade 3 stakes race except this one will be decided at one mile on turf in the Sweetest Chant. Some of the best trainers in the country have contenders in here: Clement, Pletcher, Mott, Brown and Casse. Such is graded stakes turf racing at Gulfstream in the winter. We’ll try to separate the best from the best in here.


#2 HONEY PANTS: Tried turf stakes in her last two starts and managed a pair of seconds—going six furlongs at Aqueduct and then one mile at Gulfstream. She’ll be hard pressed to turn the tables on #4 Con Lima who defeated Honey Pants by over three lengths last out. Top jock Irad Ortiz rides back for 20% winning trainer Christophe Clement.

#4 CON LIMA: Has been first (3) or second (3) in all six career starts for the meet’s top trainer Todd Pletcher, including powerful victories in her last two—both going one mile at Gulfstream. She’s 2 for 2 over this turf course and at this distance. She’s got enough speed to be on the lead while saving ground. Paco Lopez returns in the saddle. She’ll be a very short price to win.

#5 WHITE FROST: Woke up for Bill Mott first time on turf at Aqueduct in November. This race is a big step up for her and for those looking to fade the chalk in here.

#6 DOMAIN EXPERTISE: Has the look of a talented type. She was second first out going a mile and one sixteenth on turf and then was asked to face stakes foes in Pimlico’s Selima over a yielding course. Returned to a maiden at Tampa, she romped by 4. Trainer Chad Brown has trained this one every seven days since that early December score, so she should be fit. Tyler Gaffalione rides and he and Brown are 29% together. This filly has enough speed to be close to the early pace. Interesting option to the heavy favorite.

#8 DIRECTOR'S CUT: Raced wide last out in an optional claiming/allowance turf test. She didn’t give up and finished second. She draws wide in here and could be losing ground again. She last raced Jan. 10, so she’s plenty fit and trainer Mark Casse even added a bullet 4-furlong Palm Meadows turf work in :46 1/5 Jan. 24. Luis Saez rides, so this filly should be in the early mix. That jockey/trainer combo is 33%.


RACE 11 // GULFSTREAM PARK (4:50PM ET) // G3 HOLY BULL S. ($200K) //1 1/16 MILES (DIRT)

We move from sophomore fillies to 3-year-old colts and geldings in the Gr. 3 Holy Bull at one mile and one-sixteenth. These are the glamour boys of 2021, the ones whose connections have hopes of traveling the road to the Kentucky Derby. Todd Pletcher has a pair of starters in here and they look toughest even though neither has gone two turns.


#4 AMOUNT: Romped by more than 5 lengths as favorite first out going seven furlongs at Gulfstream on the day after Christmas. Since then this son of Curlin has worked steadily for top trainer Todd Pletcher every seven days. There’s no way of knowing how good this one might be. Top jock Irad Ortiz, who rode this colt last out, abandons ship to ride Pletcher’s other starter #6 Prime Factor, also a first-out winner. Luis Saez is a capable replacement. No real reason to doubt this one’s ability.

#6 PRIME FACTOR: By Quality Road, exploded to win a 6-furlong maiden race by nearly 9 lengths in fast time Dec. 12 at this track. Since then he has worked five times, including a bullet 5-furlongs in :59 4/5 at Palm Beach Downs. Top jock Irad Ortiz and leading trainer Todd Pletcher combine talents here and they are a sparkling 34% together. This guy showed speed first out, so he should be among the early leaders. He should be a very short price as the most favored of the Pletcher pair.

#7 GREATEST HONOUR: Has steadily improved under the tutelage of Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. This son of Tapit has no early speed and makes his run late. That strong finish was good enough to overcome trouble and win a maiden race last out around two turns at Gulfstream the day after Christmas. Jockey Luis Saez, who rode him to that score, moves to #4 Amount and Jose Ortiz (20% with Shug) will ride Greatest Honour. This colt will need some help up front to set up his closing charge so he may be a better option in exotics. Of course, he’s proven he can go two turns and Pletcher’s pair haven’t.


RACE 12 // GULFSTREAM PARK (5:22PM ET) // CLAIMING //1 MILE (TURF)

This is a ‘beaten’ race for runners entered to be claimed for $35k at one mile on the turf. We have a real problem narrowing this one down to a few contenders for a variety of reasons. This race is on turf where unusual pace, trip and trouble scenarios often come into play. Some of these are older horses (7 & 8 years old) who are dropping in class and may have seen better days. It’s difficult to assess when one of these senior citizens might feel fine enough to ‘rock the oldies.’


#1 THE LAST ZIP: Has some speed and is drawn on the rail. Blinkers go on for trainer Mike Maker, who is good with this kind. The 5-year-old gelding drops back to his original claiming price. With just 2 wins in 18 lifetime starts this one doesn’t inspire confidence, but few in here do.

#2 DUNDALK: Has speed and is 7 for 8 in the money at the distance. Expect jockey Jaramillo to have him winging on the rail.

#3 HONEY WON'T: Returns to a suitable level for trainer Bill Mott and has 4 wins in 18 starts with 2 of them coming at Gulfstream. This 5-year-old horse hasn’t raced since September and has worked every 7-8 days since.

#4 FINANCIAL SYSTEM: Is a 7-year-old gelding with 5 wins in just 14 lifetime starts. He drops to his lowest level for trainer Kelly Breen. He raced evenly last out at the 50k claiming level and was claimed from Chad Brown for $40k at Saratoga in August when second as favorite. Luis Saez replaces Junior Alvarado who moves to #3 Honey Won’t for Mott--an important customer.

#5 TUSK: Will make his second start this year and that’s notable because the 8-year-old made just 2 starts in all of 2020. Claimed for $32k from Jorge Navarro in October ’19, this gelding has been pitched in four stakes races, 2 of them graded. He won the Tropical Turf in 2020 but was nowhere last out in the 2021 version of that stakes. Now, he drops for high-percentage Saffie Joseph. His most effective style is to be just behind the early running. Tyler Gaffalione rides and he’s 27% on Joseph mounts.

#6 TROUBLING MOON: Is a 6-year-old gelding with no speed that dropped from $50k to this level last out and was beaten by a neck at 7.60-1. That’s his only in the money finish in his last 7 starts. Did the class drop make the difference and can he repeat that good effort?

#7 WILLING TO SPEED: Is a youngster in this race at 5 and has just 3 wins in 27 starts. He wasn’t a factor last out at this level, so he’d need to turn things around.

#8 HARBOUR MASTER: Had a couple of races last year that might fit at this level. He’s not real big on winning with just 1 win in his last 10 starts.

#9 MONONGAHELA: Gets top jock Irad Ortiz off a poor effort at 8-1 on the class drop to this level. Why? Perhaps a bullet, best-of-38 half in :47 3/5 at Palm Meadows is a sign of life. He’s got the best races of anyone in here, but they occurred a long time ago. He has just been gelded and maybe that procedure renewed a spark of life? He’s faced stakes foes in 10 of his last 12 starts.

#10 FIG JELLY: Has won just 2 of 30 lifetime with 12 second-place finishes. To put a finer point on it, this 6-year-old has 0 wins over Gulfstream turf with 4 runner-up placings. He is dropping back to his claimed level where he was beaten just a length going five and one-half furlongs at Saratoga.

#11 BLAMELESS: Dropped in class to this level last out and fired a decent shot to be second by a neck. The 5-year-old is lightly raced and has a win and a second over the Gulfstream turf. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez returns to guide this guy from a tough post. Note: both of his wins have come in wire-to-wire fashion.



SUGGESTED LATE PICK 4 TICKET

There’s a chance that this Pick 4 could ‘chalk out’ early via a string of Todd Pletcher victories in races 9, 10 & 11. If that happens, players must hope for a bomb in the last to juice payoffs.

RACE 9: 3, 7
RACE 10: 4, 6
RACE 11: 4, 6
RACE 12: ALL (11 Horses)
TICKET COST: $44.00

Race On!