Monday 1/18/21 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 11:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 3	Daily Double (Races 3-4) / Exacta / Trifecta (50 cent min,) Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / Superfecta (10 cent min.)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 46 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 1:49P
FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. SUBJECT TO CALL is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KING LIAM: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, hors e is a Front-runner with an inside post position. PRETTY GUILTY: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside po st position. SUBJECT TO CALL: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. CUSTOM KAT: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
4	KING LIAM	9/2	7/2
1	PRETTY GUILTY	7/2	9/2
3	SUBJECT TO CALL	5/2	6/1
8	CUSTOM KAT	3/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	KING LIAM	4	9/2	Front-runner	66	63	66.6	35.5	29.5
1	PRETTY GUILTY	1	7/2	Front-runner	65	62	57.2	37.4	32.4
3	SUBJECT TO CALL	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	64.4	33.2	28.7
8	CUSTOM KAT	8	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	39	43	31.5	38.0	32.5
5	BIG BAND'S LUCK	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	53.3	18.5	8.5
2	YOUCANBETONME	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	32.7	24.5	13.5
7	SOUND OF THE SEA	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: JET PUFFED (8/1) [Jockey: Mora Gerardo - Trainer: White Sr Dale].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 01:23 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

Aqueduct - Race 5	Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) Pick 4 (.50) Races (5-8), Double Wagers
Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 2:50P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 1, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * FRANKIE BARONE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PLAYWRIGHT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MILLS: Horse has the hig hest TrackMaster Power Rating. COLTANDMISSISSIPPI: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. SCARF IT DOWN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	FRANKIE BARONE	10/1	5/1
1	PLAYWRIGHT	5/2	6/1
8	MILLS	7/2	7/1
5	COLTANDMISSISSIPPI	50/1	8/1
3	SCARF IT DOWN	4/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	FRANKIE BARONE	3	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	91	88.8	81.8	72.3
5	COLTANDMISSISSIPPI	5	50/1	Alternator/Stalker	97	91	87.9	77.4	62.4
3	SCARF IT DOWN	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	96	85	73.2	72.4	62.4
6	HERO'S HOPE	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	85	68.2	80.0	70.0
9	AUTOSTRADE	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	88	67.4	79.2	67.2
1	PLAYWRIGHT	4	5/2	Trailer	90	83	73.0	80.6	75.6
8	MILLS	8	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	92	91	67.2	82.4	73.9
7	HOORAY FOR HARVEY	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	92	78.8	69.8	56.8
10	ORPHEUS (ARG)	11	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	88	87	71.2	72.8	65.8
2	REAL DAN	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	91	78	58.0	67.6	51.1
1A	SUCCESSFUL SAINT	10	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	80	66	56.0	54.0	37.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 01:24 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 89

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 18 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 18 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SMART STEP 10/1
# 1 THREETHEHARDWAY 10/1
# 14 BLUE DANUBE 12/1

My choice in this race is SMART STEP and is a solid value-based wager given the 10/1 line. In fine fettle, and coming back in next to no time again this time around. Don't let this gelding slip past you. Could win at boxcar odds. A solid 98 avg class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this field. THREETHEHARDWAY - Reliable average speed figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a solid choice. Graham is very serious with this one, wheeling him back soon. BLUE DANUBE - Sharp dividends over time for this jockey and handler duo. Ought to go to the lead and could never look back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 01:25 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Fair Grounds - Race #9 - Post: 4:52pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#2 CANDY SHOPPER (ML=9/2)
#7 FAITH'S RACEDAY (ML=3/1)

CANDY SHOPPER - I figure that this race's shorter trip should help this gelding. FAITH'S RACEDAY - I took a look at this gelding's finishes. He's almost always in the money. When Pedroza and David join forces on horses the return on investment has been fabulous at +24. This gelding should be in fine condition, this far into his form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ROUX GA ROUX (ML=5/2), #5 GOODROCKINALVIN (ML=6/1), #4 THUNK (ML=6/1),

ROUX GA ROUX - The morning-line favorite is suspect here with the lack of works. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to record a better speed figure than in the last race to battle in this dirt sprint. GOODROCKINALVIN - Recorded a mediocre speed rating last time around the track in a Maiden Special race on Dec 14th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that number. THUNK - This gelding notched a speed figure in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 CANDY SHOPPER to win if we can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 01:25 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Santa Anita - Race #1 - Post: 12:30pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $63,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#7 SWIFT NONNI (ML=8/1)
#8 STARLIGHT STROLL (ML=4/1)
#5 BIG STRETCH (ML=7/2)
#1 MICHALSKA (ML=3/1)

SWIFT NONNI - This beautiful animal is racing on the turf for the first time. She should be tough, coming off a first place finish in her race on December 17th on a sluggish track. This jock and handler have a favorable ROI when they combine forces. Stortz drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the pp lines to figure that this thoroughbred has a darn good chance at this level. That 83 fig this filly earned in her last contest tells me she's a main player this time out. STARLIGHT STROLL - Dropping down in class figure points from her November 6th race at Del Mar. Based on that data point, I will give this horse the advantage. This horse is racing on the turf for the first time. She should be tough, coming off a first place finish in her race on October 18th on a sluggish track. You have to consider this race horse in your investing today. She is racing on turf for the first time and her handler does well switching from dirt to turf. Sherman adds Lasix to this one today. I'd look for a significant improvement. BIG STRETCH - D'Amato is strong in turf sprints. This horse should have no allowances if she doesn't win. The rider and trainer combination have a beneficial ROI when they are put together. MICHALSKA - This jockey and handler have a positive ROI when they join forces. This speedball is shortening up today. Should increase her winning probability. Was in the Blue Norther at Santa Anita in the last race. That affair had a class number of 94 and she is moving down right here in this race. A certain win candidate. Based on her last TrackMaster turf figure alone, I'm going to play this entrant. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average class rating in the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BECCA TAYLOR (ML=2/1),

BECCA TAYLOR - If she goes off at the M/L odds of 2/1, I'll have to pass.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BIG STRETCH - When a magnificent animal takes such a big drop in the class figure department, I always take a look. I like what I see with this one and am making a wager on her.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #7 SWIFT NONNI to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,5,8] with [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	7 with [1,5,8] with [1,5,8] with [1,5,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	[7,8] with [1,5,7,8] with [1,5,7,8] with [1,2,5,6,7,8] with [1,2,5,6,7,8] Total Cost: $72

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 01:40 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 65

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 18. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TICKETY BOO 7/2
# 7 BLUSHING BELLA 8/1
# 11 MISS HEART 4/1

I give my vote to TICKETY BOO here. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. Has put up sound speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. Look for a much improved outing with the drop. BLUSHING BELLA - She has earned strong figures under today's conditions and should fare well against this group. She should definitely be given a chance given the quite good speed figs. MISS HEART - Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (67 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Look for this equine to be right there at the finish line versus these mounts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 03:45 PM

Al Cimaglia: Pompano Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

January 18, 2021 | By Al Cimaglia

Pompano Park has 13 races ready to roll with the Early 0.50 Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $30,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

3-Keegan Ho (7/2)-Beaten chalk was parked into a 28.3 second quarter and was beaten by a well-meant winner who got a smooth steer. Back in at the same class and could make amends with a better journey.
7-Susie's Sister (2-1)-Draws outside and steps-up but does come off an impressive win drawing off by 7 lengths. This looks like a 2-horse race and may have to grind it out, but best to respect connections.

Race 7

2-Bradon Hanover (9/2)-Needs a good steer to get the job done at this level and has the pilot to do so. This was Miller's choice over the 3/9. Should be forwardly placed and could benefit from a fast pace but might be over bet.
6-Make A Statement A (6/5)-Program favorite deserves that status and Hennessey should be on the engine or in the 2-hole soon after the word-Go.
7-Unlikeanyother (7/2)-Normally not my play to use a winner of 2 straight who takes a big step up. But this Pet Rock five-year-old made me pause. Last 2 wins were done easily, with solid fractions and has the gate speed to land in a good seat.

Race 8

6-Darty (9/5)-Comes off a sharp win, was used a couple of times and powered by down the lane. This is a bump up but should be able to handle this crew with a similar effort.
7-Muscle Star (7/2)-Using over #5 who is coming off a sick scratch and hasn't raced since 12/28. There are risks involved here, does break stride every now and then. This is the 1st start for new barn and will rely on the Beckwith-Hennessey connection to help keep him trotting. Using under the assumption the price will be better than the morning line.

Race 9

1-Lightfootedlegend (2-1)-Has struggled at this level and is only 1 for 12 at the Pomp. But from the rail Hennessey could get the top or the 2 hole without using much gas. Will respect chances but will look to others with more value.
3-Sooo Handsome (3-1)-This veteran know his way to the winner's circle in south Florida. But did run into a tough winner in last. Got the pocket ride but the Lion King As snuck in a 29.1 third quarter and that was enough to seal the deal. That was the first time Plano left in a while and will look for another aggressive drive.
5-Billie Blue (8-1)-If the pace is hot this mare can catch the boys and roll by down the lane. Came off a win and stepped up to this class but raced from the back as the 2 chalks left. Regular pilot Mike Simmons is back tonight and will look for him to get a better seat and come off cover at a price.

0.50 Early Pick 4

3,7/2,6,7/6,7/1,3,5
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 03:46 PM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 1/18/21

January 18, 2021

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click here to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Becca Taylor; 5-Big Stretch

Forecast: Big Stretch may be most effective around one corner and based on pedigree (Mr. Big) she should be even better on turf than dirt. After graduating in late November at Del Mar on the main track from off the pace, she gets a chance to utilize her tools under ideal conditions as a first-time Lasix user while retaining J. Rosario. There’s wageing value at or near her moning line of 7/2. Becca Taylor also should be included in rolling exotic play. A winner at first asking sprinting on dirt at Los Alamitos last month with a pretty good speed figure, the daughter of Old Topper moves up a notch, has a nice training track breeze since raced and is another that is eligible to race with Lasix now that she’s turned three.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Mastering; 3-Canadian Pride

Forecast: Canadian Pride was worn down by subsequent stakes winner Kiss Today Goodbye when second while more than six lengths clear of the others at Del Mar last time out and the son of Creative Cause has worked extremely well since, so we’re expecting the lightly-raced gelding to step forward again while expecting that he’ll be sent from the gate to make the lead. And in his role as the controlling speed, P. Eurton-trained 4-year-old he should be tough to catch. Mastering returned off a long layoff and defeated maidens in good style over this track and distance last month while earning a big figure that makes him dangerous right back. The B. Baffert-trained gelding projects to have dead aim and every chance from the quarter pole home. Preference on top goes to Canadian Pride but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Invincibella; 2-Jumping Jill Flash; 3-Acai

Forecast: The main contention in this restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares is drawn inside with the P. Miller barn represented by Invincibella and Jumping Jill Flash. The former sports both blinkers off angle and the route-to-sprint maneuver while switching to hot-riding J. J. Hernandez and is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from her rail post position. The latter, a Woodbine invader adding blinkers for the first time and picking up J. Rosario, should be prominent throughout and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. Acai, freshened since mid-November, was nosed out in a starter’s allowance dash at Del Mar last time out and fits on figures; however, the concern is that this six furlong trip might be stretching her limit. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with Invincibella (6-1), the best price of the three, getting a very slight edge on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jungle Roar; 2-Hallowed Gift

Forecast: Hallowed Gift is gradually improving and with this drop to the maiden $20,000 level the J. Sadler-trained gelding may have found a field he can outlast. Two strong workouts at Los Alamitos since raced is a positive sign and so is the switch to J. Rosario. Jungle Roar has numbers that can win but his lack of early speed combined with his rail post position are concerns. Freshened since October and now in the J. Mullins barn, the son of Animal Kingdom will be a major threat in the final stages if he can secure a decent trip. We’ll give Hallowed Gift the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Predictable Tully; 8-Bristol Bayou; 10-Bellize

Forecast: Maiden $50,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint six furlongs on grass in a challenging affair that could produce an upset. Let’s try Bellize at 8-1 on the morning line. She’s a second-off-the-claim play for Drysdale (not many stats with that angle!) while turning back from a grass miler (speed/fade) and showing recent good works to indicate a form reversal is possible. The lightly-raced mare by Noble Mission is relatively unexposed, unlike most of the others. Predictable Tully, runner-up under these conditions at Del Mar in early November, probably won’t need much better than that effort to graduate today, though having failed three times as the favorite the Irish-bred filly may be a hard one to trust. Bristol Bayou has sprinted okay over this turf course vs. straight maidens in the past, and if she can reproduce her best effort the daughter of Carpe Diem should at get a piece of it. All three should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Bellize on top.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Horse Greedy; 6-Oil Can Knight

Forecast: Oil Can Knight returns to his favorite track – he’s won four of eight starts at Santa Anita – so we’re expecting the veteran gelding to find his best stuf in this $25,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Third as the favorite in a similar affair at Los Alamitos last month without mishap, the S. Knapp-trained son of Can the Man should be able to settle just off the leaders and then have his chance when it counts. If Oil Can Knight doesn’t fire his best shot, Horse Greedy certainly can win and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Th ex-classer returns to his claim (and winning) level after almost two months off, switches to J. Rosario, and has looked solid in recent drills to indicate he’s fit enough for a good effort.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:40 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Mucho Unusual

Forecast: Mucho Unusual out-classes this field, simple as that. Winner of the nine-furlong R. J. Frankel S.-G3 last month but equally effective at this one mile trip, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man is listed at 9/5 on the morning line but seems certain to go lower while switching to J. Rosario, who won a graded stakes race with her a couple of years ago. With tactical speed and the versatility to win from just about anywhere, she’s a logical top pick and short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B
Single: 2-Tejon

Forecast: Tejon is re-equipped with blinkers, drops for the money run and returns to the Santa Anita main track over which he earned his maiden diploma almost a year ago. From his inside draw, the son of Square Eddie seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics, and in a field with suspect closers he’ll have every opportunity to roll all the way to the wire. In a race in which nothing else inspires, let’s go with the R. Baltas-trained gelding as a short-priced rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:43 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Mount Pelliar; 2-El Joy; 10-Goldini

Forecast: The finale is a maiden $50,000 claimer over a mile on turf that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Mount Pelliar shows up in a seller for the first time, lands the good rail and gets Lasix and F. Prat, so we’re expecting the R. Hanson-trained gelding to improve considerably. He’s a good fit on numbers, so we’ll put him on top. Goldini is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but the son of Goldencents split the field in his debut sprinting against an infinitely tougher group so he should be quite competitive against this softer band. El Joy is gradually improving with racing and warrants a look after finishing a close third in a maiden $75,000 affair at Del Mar in November. Adding Lasix, the Kitten’s Joy sophomore retains J. J. Hernandez and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, ground-saving trip.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 03:46 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Tale of Dixie Finished up nicely when adding blinkers and dropping to this level last time out, and he has some upside in this second start off the lengthy layoff. The 8/1 ML price would be plenty appealing.
#1 Pardon the Pun The most likely winner in here by far, he should have the front end all to himself again, but that has been the case in several of his losses accrued on the way to his current 0-for-11 record. The one to beat, but he's dicey as always.
#7 The Fire Within Passed a few tiring ones when way too far off the splits in that most recent try, and he may appreciate a more leisurely set of splits at this mile trip.
Race Summary Beat Pardon the Pun to cash, but he often opens big leads in the lane only to find a way to lose, and he's sure to be another short price today as he projects as lone speed yet again. Tale of Dixie may be the right one to come along late and land this.

Laurel Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#7 Tom Terrific He can sit much closer to the pace than he did last time out in that good finishing effort. This is a tougher spot today, but the price should be right with a better trip looming.
#10 Redeem Eddie He has just missed in both recent starts at this level, so he obviously has a big claim on this, but he's not going to be a particularly appealing price off those close misses.
#8 Bernie's On Fire He has been really tough when racing outside of stakes company, and this class relief should give him every chance to bounce back off the bench.
Race Summary Tom Terrific is worth a look at a price. He can get a better trip today than he did last time out, and that might look like a perfect, first-jump kind of run with these.

Laurel Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#4 I'll Take the Cake Versatile type finished well from off the splits last out, but she can be a bit more tactical with these. Looks like the right one if the chalk takes a step back.
#5 The Circle Game Might be worth playing against this one. She was 10-1 in her most recent win, and she went gate to wire on a sloppy track that day. Not sold that she's about to run back to that at a much shorter price this time around.
#6 Annika Gold Needs to turn tables on The Circle Game, but this one might be a bit better on a fast track, giving her a chance to flip the script today.
Race Summary I'll Take the Cake would be playable at something like the 4/1 ML offering, and she has some ability to sit a bit closer to the pace today.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 03:46 PM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Mahoning Valley - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Double Whopper Set the pace and faltered late in a Fair Grounds stakes race; was solid in two at Indiana Grand and can be in front at every pole of this one.
#6 Stormy Empire Ran in the allowance ranks at Hawthorne in December and has the late move to be effective.
#7 Champagne Bliss Just missed at Mountaineer to ended last year and was in good form when she went on a brief rest; capable of a big effort vs. these.
Race Summary Double Whopper has the most speed, can set the fractions of her liking and can dig in for the win; has the class edge.

Mahoning Valley - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Sterling Hope Beat N2L in easy fashion last out, which was his second over the strip; has several races on his form that are good enough to make him tough here.
#4 Centrist Was third vs. similar two races back and can probably be a pace factor here.
#8 Candy Mover Was an easy winner in two straight last fall and ended 2020 with a fourth here; can be close throughout.
Race Summary Sterling Hope gets a good pace in front of him and can be a strong player if he runs back to his last one.

Mahoning Valley - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Bodyguard Has good speed, gets the rail and looks like the one to catch under apprentice Correa.
#6 Gift of Oak Ran evenly last time out and should be able to finish better at this level.
#9 The Man Can Battled it out for a maiden victory last time out and has the speed to get a good run from the outside.
Race Summary Bodyguard is quick, can benefit from the inside post and can dig in vs. this level.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 04:45 PM

549ORLANDO -550 NEW YORK
ORLANDO is 24-7 ATS (16.3 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the last 3 seasons.

549ORLANDO -550 NEW YORK
Steve Clifford is 24-7 ATS (16.3 Units) when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) (Coach of ORLANDO)

553MINNESOTA -554 ATLANTA
MINNESOTA is 64-83 ATS (-27.3 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

555SAN ANTONIO -556 PORTLAND
SAN ANTONIO is 466-396 ATS (30.4 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game since 1996.

557DETROIT -558 MIAMI
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

557DETROIT -558 MIAMI
Dwane Casey is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after covering 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread (Coach of DETROIT)

559PHOENIX -560 MEMPHIS
PHOENIX is 294-237 ATS (33.3 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1996.

561DALLAS -562 TORONTO
TORONTO is 15-5 ATS (9.5 Units) after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

563MILWAUKEE -564 BROOKLYN
MILWAUKEE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in road games versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons.

565HOUSTON -566 CHICAGO
HOUSTON is 20-9 ATS (10.1 Units) after a division game in the last 3 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 04:46 PM

NBA

Monday, January 18

Trend Report

Orlando @ New York
Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing on the road against New York
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Orlando's last 21 games on the road
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New York's last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing at home against Orlando

Minnesota @ Atlanta
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Minnesota

Detroit @ Miami
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games at home

San Antonio @ Portland
San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games when playing on the road against Portland
San Antonio is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Portland
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Portland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Antonio

Phoenix @ Memphis
Phoenix
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games when playing Memphis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Phoenix's last 5 games
Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Memphis's last 19 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing Phoenix

Milwaukee @ Brooklyn
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Milwaukee is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Brooklyn
Brooklyn
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brooklyn's last 5 games

Dallas @ Toronto
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Dallas

Houston @ Chicago
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Houston's last 8 games
Chicago
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games

Golden State @ LA Lakers
Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Golden State's last 5 games
Golden State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Lakers's last 5 games when playing Golden State

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 04:46 PM

NBA
Long Sheet

Monday, January 18

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ORLANDO (6 - 7) at NEW YORK (6 - 8) - 1/18/2021, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ORLANDO is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 32-18 ATS (+12.2 Units) after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
ORLANDO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 4-2 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 4-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (3 - 8) at ATLANTA (5 - 7) - 1/18/2021, 2:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 28-45 ATS (-21.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 62-91 ATS (-38.1 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
MINNESOTA is 14-29 ATS (-17.9 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-33 ATS (-17.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN ANTONIO (7 - 6) at PORTLAND (8 - 5) - 1/18/2021, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games against Northwest division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 1131-1004 ATS (+26.6 Units) in all games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 5-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 4-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (3 - 9) at MIAMI (4 - 7) - 1/18/2021, 3:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 53-80 ATS (-35.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-3 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHOENIX (7 - 4) at MEMPHIS (6 - 6) - 1/18/2021, 5:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 5-2 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 5-2 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (6 - 6) at TORONTO (4 - 8) - 1/18/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 462-374 ATS (+50.6 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 191-150 ATS (+26.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1996.
DALLAS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 42-23 ATS (+16.7 Units) after allowing 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 216-172 ATS (+26.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
DALLAS is 80-57 ATS (+17.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-0 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MILWAUKEE (9 - 4) at BROOKLYN (8 - 6) - 1/18/2021, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 86-137 ATS (-64.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1996.
MILWAUKEE is 105-84 ATS (+12.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 147-113 ATS (+22.7 Units) in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 4-2 against the spread versus BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 4-2 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (4 - 7) at CHICAGO (5 - 8) - 1/18/2021, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
HOUSTON is 139-102 ATS (+26.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive unders since 1996.
CHICAGO is 31-47 ATS (-20.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 144-192 ATS (-67.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1996.
CHICAGO is 76-110 ATS (-45.0 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.
CHICAGO is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
CHICAGO is 21-39 ATS (-21.9 Units) in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (6 - 6) at LA LAKERS (11 - 3) - 1/18/2021, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 4-3 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 4-3 straight up against GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 01-18-2021, 04:47 PM

Hoop Trends for Monday January 18
Vince Akins

ATS Play ON Trend of the Day
Matchup: Phoenix at Memphis (TNT, 5:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Suns are 13-0 ATS (13.92 ppg) off a road game in which Devin Booker took more than 20 shots.

ATS Play AGAINST Trend of the Day
Matchup: Minnesota at Atlanta (NBATV, 2:30 p.m. ET)

-- The Hawks are 0-10 ATS (-8.20 ppg) at home with rest off a loss in which they led by double digits.

OU Play OVER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Orlando at New York (NBATV, 12:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Magic are 12-0 OU (12.08 ppg) on the road when the line is within 3 of pick.

OU Play UNDER Trend of the Day
Matchup: Phoenix at Memphis (TNT, 5:00 p.m. ET)

-- The Grizzlies are 0-12 OU (-19.83 ppg) at home after they scored more than 50 points in the paint last game.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)