Service Plays Sunday 12/13/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Lexdeoh20189]

Doc’s Sports.

Take #166 Under in Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins (1p.m., Sunday, December 13 CBS)

For Miami to be competitive in this game they will have to shorten the game and keep the scoring in the low twenties. Despite their explosive offense the Chiefs have been an under team of late and especially with the trends. Kansas City has played under the posted total is 7 of their last 9 road games. Miami has gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 home games. We will not worry if the Chiefs can cover this big number and instead just collect with the over.

[Lexdeoh20189]

Prediction Machine

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars : Over 53

The Titans head to Jacksonville hoping to rebound from an embarrassing loss to the Browns in which their defense surrendered 38 points in the first 30 minutes. As a result, Derrick Henry saw a season-low 15 rush attempts and Ryan Tannehill was forced to play catch up. Henry should be in line for his typical 25-plus touch workload against the Jags as Tennessee is projected to play with a lead in this division rematch, currently listed as 7.5-point favorites.

Jacksonville has lost 11 straight after their Week 1 upset of the Colts, but has at least shown some fight in their recent losses. Four of their past five defeats have come by five points or less, and the offense has posted 49 points in Mike Glennon’s two starts under center. This is shaping up to be a high-scoring affair despite it being a rematch of two division foes, with a current total of 53 points.

Our NFL model agrees there will be plenty of scoring, projecting a final score of 35.4-21.6 in favor of the Titans. With 57 combined points projected and a total of 53, we have a sizable edge on the over in this AFC South matchup. Our model suggests an $110 wager on OVER 53 for an $100 average bettor.

Why will the total go OVER?

Tennessee’s offense should roll against a Jacksonville defense that’s one of the worst in the NFL. The Jaguars are dead last in yards allowed per play (6.2) and yards allowed per pass attempt (8.0). Despite being viewed as strictly a rushing powerhouse, the Titans sport the sixth best yards per pass attempt (7.5) in the league. Their rushing attack is more than capable as well, averaging 4.8 yards per rush (6th). Derrick Henry boasts a 55.4 percent success rate on his 2020 rush attempts, which is five percentage points higher than league average (Sharp Football Stats).

Jacksonville should be able to score in their own right thanks to Tennessee’s anemic defense. The Titans rank 31st in pressure rate (17.2%), allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt (20th), and have allowed 27.2 points per game this season (25th).

The Titans have the second worst red zone defense in the league. They’ve allowed opponents to score touchdowns on 72.9 percent of their opportunities, while Jacksonville has been above average in that department, turning 61.1 percent of their red zone trips into six (11th). The Titans have excelled at putting up touchdowns in the red zone as well, cashing in on 73.5 percent of their trips (4th). Scoring touchdowns in lieu of settling for field goals will be key for this game to surpass the high total.

[Lexdeoh20189]

Doc’s Sports.

Take #166 Under 50 in Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphins (1p.m., Sunday, December 13 CBS)

For Miami to be competitive in this game they will have to shorten the game and keep the scoring in the low twenties. Despite their explosive offense the Chiefs have been an under team of late and especially with the trends. Kansas City has played under the posted total is 7 of their last 9 road games. Miami has gone under the posted total in 4 of their last 5 home games. We will not worry if the Chiefs can cover this big number and instead just collect with the over.

[rocky57]

PicksWise Sports
NFL 3* Best Bets 28-18-2 Overall

Sunday NFL - All 3* Best Bets
New York Giants +3
Indianapolis Colts -135 (Moneyline)
New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-113)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Colin Cowerd Blazin 5

Tennessee -7.5 (Rout of the week)
Miami +7
N.Y.Giants +2.5
Buffalo -2
Cleveland +2.5


Last week 3-2
Year 30-33-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence preferred picks NFL 5☆ GAME OF THE MONTH IS ON PITTSBURGH STEELERS +1.5...This came from Vegas Insider.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence preferred picks NFL 5☆ GAME OF THE MONTH IS ON PITTSBURGH STEELERS +1.5...This came from Vegas Insider. He's also got the Cardinals, Vikings and Chargers as plays. At Vegas Insider.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 13 2020 1:00PM
165 KAN -1.0(-120) Bookmaker vs 166 MIA triple-dime bet

Analysis: 3* 6 PT TEASER: Chiefs -1/Saints -0.5 -120




Miami is a fraudulent team who has had one of the worst offenses in the NFL over the past six weeks, and has benefitted greatly from playing the leagues easiest schedule YTD. Kansas City is fighting for the 1 seed, so we will get the Chiefs in a max motivation spot, and Patrick Mahomes has absolutely lit up the style of defense that Miami plays.


In our write ups for the Chiefs games against Baltimore and KC, we mentioned how man coverage heavy defenses that blitz a lot are the type of defenses that Mahomes eats alive. Well, this season against Tampa and Baltimore, Mahomes has a stat line of 68-91, 847 yards, 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions .Mahomes is averaging 9.4 yards per pass attempt against the blitz with 11 touchdowns to zero interceptions. Miami also runs a man coverage heavy blitz happy defense. Miami all year has been a team relying on it's defense to win games, and they will not be able to do that against the Chiefs.


Meanwhile, the Saints defense is playing like they are the best defense in the NFL. The Saints have allowed 44 total points over the past five games with 6.0 yards per pass attempt in those games to go with two total touchdown passes. The Saints are second in YPA allowed on the ground, and have been pressuring the quarterback better then anyone since the return of DE Marcus Davenport.


QB Jalen Hurts is just not ready in my opinion to be a starting NFL quarterback, and this is the worst possible matchup for him to have. The Saints are also 8-0 SUATS without Drew Brees (the rest of the team has picked up the slack in those games), and the Saints have a league best 11.2 point differential on the road this year. Going back to 2016, the Saints are the best road team in the NFL.


Two elite teams fighting for the one seed in the conference, I do not expect a letdown!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Dec 13 2020 1:00PM
158 NYG 3.0(-115) Bookmaker vs 157 ARI double-dime bet

Analysis: I make this number Arizona -1 if Jones is playing, and Arizona -3 if McCoy is playing. I believe there is a better then 50% chance we get Jones, and I also love the matchup for this Giants defense against Kyler Murray.


Murray is clearly not 100%, evidenced by him having only 3 designed runs per game since his shoulder injury occured. In Murray's last two games, he has a pathetic 5.0 and 4.4 YPA stat line to go along with his unwillingness to run the ball. The weapons in the pass game outside of Hopkins are not there for Arizona, and the Giants have a shut down cornerback in James Bradberry to neutralize Hopkins, who has not surpassed 52 receiving yards in any of his last three games.


Giants are an ascending team while Arizona is on a downward trend. I like this bet a lot if we get Jones, and even if we get McCoy, I still lean Giants being the right side!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Dec 13 2020 4:05PM
169 NYJ / 170 SEA UNDER 47.5 William Hill double-dime bet

Analysis: With Seattle going back to their run heavy ways, and HC Pete Carroll openly saying this week that he wants to get RB Chris Carson more touches, we fire for the second straight week on a Seattle under. IMO, the number has just simply not been adjusted enough for this philosophical change.


Seattle's defense the last two weeks has held opposing quarterbacks to 6.4, 4.8, and 4.8 YPP. The Jets will also be without WR Denzel Mims.


Plus, one psychological advantage I believe we have is that the Jets defense is going to play a lot less aggressively based off of the ending of last weeks game. The "Zero blitz" and the over aggressiveness of Gregg Williams has become the scapegoat for why the Jets lost against the Raiders.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure
MONEY
YESTERDAY 7:41 PM

NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA | 12/13 | 4:25 PM EST
NEW ORLEANS -7
We have a little more uncertainty than normal in this game as it's Jalen Hurts vs. Taysom Hill. My simulations make the Saints -8.1 points better on the road in Philadelphia, and I'm jumping on this at the key number of -7 due to some injury concerns for the Eagles. Jason Peters and Alshon Jeffery have popped with injury concerns Wednesday afternoon.

+170 4-2-1 IN LAST 7 NFL ATS PICKS
+190 3-1 IN LAST 4 PHI ATS PICKS
+77 4-3 IN LAST 7 NO ATS PICKS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN

178 BUF 0.0(-110) Bookmaker vs 177 PIT double-dime bet

Analysis: Short and sweet. I think Buffalo goes off the favorite in this game, and it's already heading that way at Pinnacle. Pittsburgh is dealing with injuries to their defense that are finally catching up to them (Dupree, Bush, Haden in concussion protocol). Pittsburgh is reliant on their defensive front to get pressure in order to hide a shaky secondary, and against a mobile quarterback like Allen, I think their secondary gets exposed. Pittsburgh has also become increasingly one dimensional on offense as well.


Money poured in against Pittsburgh last night, likely because of a terrible scheduling spot, and this scheduling spot is even worse, as it will be the Steelers third game in 11 days.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob - NFL - Sunday 13th

2** Arizona -2.5
2** Pitt-Buff over 47 (up to 48)

1* Dallas-Cinccy under 43.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

8 Units - Game of the Year

#159 - Houston - MONEYLINE (-125) over Chicago *1 EST

Chicago are losers of 6 straight and also just lost to lowly Detroit with a new head coach, blowing a lead in the 4th, because frankly the hapless Bears do not know how to close a game and win. What motivation does this team have, they have been pathetic. Nagy looks like a lame duck coach with no handle on his team. Houston also like Detroit, on an interim head coach, and they play hard for Romeo Crennel. Withg Stills and Fuller out, threw to 2 WR's last week no one knows and for 242 yards against the Colts defense, one of the best in the NFL and should have won the game. Who is the better QB? Watson. Who is the overall better team? Houston. Who has the better chance of winning this game SU? Houston. Who has played vastly better the last month? Houston.

You cannot trust the Bears offense no matter who is playing QB, and JJ Watt will be an issue in the backfield all day. Watson is a mobile QB, and that is a HUGE deal here as his play and recent form has went under the radar screen big time over the past month. Houston is 3-1 in that span, and if not for an errant fumble in the red zone last week would have beaten the playoff bound Colts for 4-0. The last 6 games the Bears have played the AFC conference they have NOT covered a single spread. Less than a field goal here, damn near pick em, I am fading one of the worst teams in the NFL over the past month and a half against a surging one with a play making QB who can avoid the pass rush and move the chains with his legs. Good luck and GO TEXANS!