Service Plays Sunday 12/13/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob

added:

.5* TB TT over 30 (alternate play TB -7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

doug upstone

6 Unit Play. Take #173 New Orleans -6.5 over Philadelphia (4:25 p.m., Sunday, Dec. 13)

Philadelphia is going to start rookie QB Jalen Hurts to add a spark to a dismal Eagles offense. Hurts came in with his team down 23-3 and led them to a touchdown which did have an emotional impact. It should be noted Hurts first TD pass came when Green Bay defenders fell asleep on a 4th and 18 to allow the score. Hurts will have to prepare for New Orleans defense that is playing as well as anyone, giving up yesteryear 8.8 PPG in their five previous contests. With the Saints second in run defense, they could force Hurts to have to throw a great deal to receivers that cannot get open and unleash their pass rush which is third in sacks. The Philly defense might be 13th overall, but they are 25th in yards per point allowed. That combination of factors makes New Orleans a tasty pick.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Hilton - Gameday

3 - San Fran -3
2 - Tenn -7'
2 - Giants +2
2 - Buff -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tom Stryker

13-0 ATS NFL TOP DATABASE INVESTMENT

Seahawks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges' Picks of the Pole

Single Plays:
Arizona -2.5
San Francisco -3
Minnesota +6.5
Indianapolis -3
Seattle -13.5
Buffalo -1.5
Atlanta-LA Chargers under 49.5
Dallas—Cincinnati under 42.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Spot Player

CBB
1* Michigan State -24
2* Northeastern +4.5
2* Winthrop -12.5
2* Ill-Chicago +10.5
2* Coppin State +9
2* Cleveland State +24
2* SIU-Edwardsville +21

NFL
2* Texans -130
2* Raiders +3
2* Saints -7 (buy 1/2)
2* Bills -135

[dawggy]

LAS VEGAS CRIS

• Game: (165) Kansas City Chiefs at (166) Miami Dolphins
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-110)
  
  Miami +7.5 (4%)
  (Sunday morning update. This game is becoming concerning. Kyle Van Noy, Miami Signal caller wont be playing, and Miami has lost 3 Running backs. They will be shorthanded today. It's odd KC not getting getting much betting support, other than teasers. I think we will get a max effort from KC today, So Miami better show up for us. I'm sticking with the play, just updating that we have lost some weapons, but thats the NFL)
  This game is not off the charts, but it is a solid play. I have very strong feelings about the Chiefs< and I will make those known when the 1st game of the playoffs go.
  Miami is a top 5 defense and must be prepared to play this week against our #1 offense. Miami offense is a pedestrian up and down performing team. Tua showed great improvement from his poor performance. KC is like Miami, an average team, but on the defensive side. Our numbers say KC wins this game, but its too many points. If we see kc get out to a decent lead, I have lack of confidence in Miami to keep up. I was just thinking the under deserves a look, but KC and Under are not words you'll see coming out of my mouth at the betting window. For gosh sakes, GB has a higher rated D than KC.

[dawggy]

LAS VEGAS CRIS

• Game: (165) Kansas City Chiefs at (166) Miami Dolphins
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Miami Dolphins +7.5 (-110)
  
  Miami +7.5 (4%)
  (Sunday morning update. This game is becoming concerning. Kyle Van Noy, Miami Signal caller wont be playing, and Miami has lost 3 Running backs. They will be shorthanded today. It's odd KC not getting getting much betting support, other than teasers. I think we will get a max effort from KC today, So Miami better show up for us. I'm sticking with the play, just updating that we have lost some weapons, but thats the NFL)
  This game is not off the charts, but it is a solid play. I have very strong feelings about the Chiefs< and I will make those known when the 1st game of the playoffs go.
  Miami is a top 5 defense and must be prepared to play this week against our #1 offense. Miami offense is a pedestrian up and down performing team. Tua showed great improvement from his poor performance. KC is like Miami, an average team, but on the defensive side. Our numbers say KC wins this game, but its too many points. If we see kc get out to a decent lead, I have lack of confidence in Miami to keep up. I was just thinking the under deserves a look, but KC and Under are not words you'll see coming out of my mouth at the betting window. For gosh sakes, GB has a higher rated D than KC.

• Game: (153) Tennessee Titans at (154) Jacksonville Jaguars
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 2%
  Play: Total Over 53.0 (-105)
  
  Titans Jaguars Over 53. 2p
  
• Game: (163) Minnesota Vikings at (164) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 1:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Total Over 52.0 (-110)
  
  TB Minn Over 52 (3%) (OKto 53.5)
  
• Game: (167) Indianapolis Colts at (168) Las Vegas Raiders
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 4:05 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Indianapolis Colts -3.0 (-100)
  
  Colts -3 (4%)
  Grateful to the many new clients that have joined on over the last couple of weeks. Some may read this write up and wonder what the hell they got themselves into. My job isn't to candy coat and make anyone feel better. I just say it the way it is. I try to not to blow smoke up anywhere it shouldn't be. I actually like this play a bit, and its much easier to play than some have recently. Lets see if this makes sense.
  I think being overconfident in betting is the kiss of death. We have been losing 36% of these games this season, so we know we are throwing losers in every week, the only thing I am highly confidant about, is that over time, we continue to win more games on teams we don't want to bet, than we lose.
  Anyone getting sick of taking Indy every week? It's been profitable, but mix it up a bit rings in my ears. I cant control a play like this, its just too strong again. Last week I actually laid the 3.5 in contests. I never do that. Some contacted me last week and assumed I was considering the end of the Indy game to be a lost cause, Honestly, I really felt they were going to get that stop, somehow. Lots of talent on Indy, but we keep losing some lately, as the injury bug causing me stress. Its hard to handicap the injuries sometimes. Raiders are having their own issues though, so that feels ok. I can't claim that at 1st look, the Raiders dont look easy here, I don't have any soothing words to convince you that everything will be ok.
  The common theme is obvious all season in these write ups, we play teams that just dont look like they are in a good spot. Playing sides nobody wants is how we get added value. Although, Indy is getting that strange unexpected support that has taken it up to 3, so obviously, I'm not the only guy on the Indy Island. Raiders and Jets have been married for weeks, at the bottom of the NFL defense rankings. LV is top 10 offense, though. Indy is top 10 in both and Rivers is playing one of his best career seasons. Fake Sports news is always pitching that Rivers is worthless etc>>< Media doing us a favor to convince people of this, so we benefit from the line value. This is actually a little less painful to bet than some of the other stuff that will likely make the card in next few days.
  
• Game: (173) New Orleans Saints at (174) Philadelphia Eagles
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 4:25 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: New Orleans Saints -6.5 (-110)
  
  Saints -6.5 (4%) Good to -7
  
  Saints have been on our menu as often as Indy this season. Its the same old story, Saints keep cashing tickets for us. They are the #1 defense in the NFL, and they face off against a rookie QB, Geez, great call coach, throw him to the wolves. Concern on this game is Brees could come back for a portion and then they go back to hill in garbage time. This line is at least 3 points low, based on previous performance. Saints #1 D, #6 O, facing #28 O #13 D Philly. Its been a comedy of errors in Philly, and we even played them a few times, and they never met the expectations. Teams playing below expectation vs Teams that are improving, is where we prefer to be. Laying under a TD is very nice.
  
• Game: (177) Pittsburgh Steelers at (178) Buffalo Bills
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 8:20 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Pittsburgh Steelers +2.0 (-110)
  
  Steelers +2 (4%) 3% Pitt +1 to -1) (2% play if Pitt were to somehow become favored by 1.50)
  Tough pill to swallow with Steelers here. They looked like crap last wk, and everyone ridiculed them this wk for having no run game. Buffalo won big for us last wk, in one of my most important games of the wk. So, I love the Bills. This line was Pitt -2.5 and has flipped, while 1-2 are not the most valuable numbers (4% ea) 3.5 solid numbers of movement is important, and in this case, too much. This is another story of Buy low, sell high. Hard to believe we are buying low on a 1 loss team, but we are. Buffalo could come in and blow the doors off of them. Lots of people would say what they say about the Rams Friday morning. How could you not be on that team? Yeah Yeah, Buffalo in prime time playing mistake free ball in a romp, they will easily repeat a performance like that, since most teams usually do!! We know that's nonsense. Steelers have the experience here. Have to worry about the injury issues, but it bodes well for motivation that I'm watching Colin ridicule them once more on TV that they are tostitos. Love listening to a losing bettor (Blazing 5) lecture others on whats supposed to be obvious. Would like to be his bookie. This is common theme everywhere though, this wk. Love it, helps us. Buffalo is a solid team we like, dont get me wrong. This is not the typical “Line way off” play we have had while winning most of the season with PITT. This is a tight game< and it should be a good game. Buffalo has our #2 offense, but that defense that was great last year, shows big leaks. Pitt is our #1 defense, despite that nonsense last wk. Strength vs strength here. The offense vs Defense flipped around is also very similar 15 Pitt 18 Buff. Don't love this game, but it solidly fits the criteria for a play. I know I should try and amplify confidence, but as subscribers know< the games that are the most difficult to bet win at a very nice rate. It just tastes worse coming off NE loss I didn't have enthusiasm about.
  
• Game: (179) Baltimore Ravens at (180) Cleveland Browns
  Date/Time: Dec 14 2020 8:15 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Baltimore Ravens 0.0 (-110)
  
  Baltimore Pick (4%) Line up to 2 or 2.5 (I would prefer -127 DK or a 130 ML,) (4% good to -3)
  Buying single picks from winning handicappers will result in often times not having the release number available. Sure, most of the time, it doesn't matter in the result. The 1 time it does, makes it important. If I bought single picks, I want them at release time. This is a general observation I may repeat. I feel that its my responsibility to provide added value where I can, without sending clients to twitter or a video. The moral to the story is to consider finding someone that is a proven winner at the sport you want to wager, and just stick with them. This isn't a pitch for me, as I dont have a great track record in some areas, and there are people known for their specialties.
  Ravens won easily vs Cowboys, which was a disappointment to me because I thought it would cause this line damage to how much value we could have. Here's the big surprise to me, apparently Baltimore didn't really play a good game. They actually fell in my Math model, despite the big win. I just love having something available to us that tells a different story to what our eyes may say, or what we may assume from a final score. Very few people can beat the NFL or NBA every year. For most, its a crap shoot game to game. Logic doesn't cash tickets. Without math data available, I wouldn't win much, there is simply too much information that cannot be properly evaluated by “feel” or past trends. Geez, some of the crap people use to market or wager with, is an embarrassment. The bookmakers dont have the exact same info presented to them? Whoops, back to the game.
  Clearly, betting against the Browns has been profitable this season. I have used the word fraud and Browns all season long. They were the 2nd worst team ATS until recent weeks, and we actually just missed playing Browns against TN last wk. So we knew when to get off the fade Browns bus, nicely. So, taking emotion and bias out of betting is an absolute must. Loyalty is for losing bettors. I'm just pointing this out because I do want to make it clear, he numbers no longer indicate Browns are as bad as there were. They have had excellent scheduling luck, and faced teams at the perfect time for Browns etc.. They are not a great team, but they have their moments and showing more consistently. Baltimore has clearly regressed, and are far from expectations. Cleveland has gained over 4 pts of value and Balt has lost 2 pts of value, over the last 6 weeks, Thats a huge gap close. Yes, I run trailing week data that tells us hidden value that season long stats obscure. 5-1 on games last week using a combination of this data.
  I've babbled long enough, nobody reads this, anyway. Quite a lot of value in the game with the numbers. Cleveland is probably playing the biggest game they've had in , I don't even know. Browns wont have any problem getting up for this game, and hopefully they are too hopped up and leads to miscue's early, or pressure late in the game. “Show ME ”, is what I have to say about the Browns. Baltimore #5 D and pedestrian 14 on O this year, but Browns D is #21, and don't forget that data is skewed with 3 weather games to bring the disaster D total down. The D is worse than 21, Cleveland has some nice glamour stats on offense, but in my model that computes far more than others would use, they are 2 notches behind Baltimore, at 16. We have the team here that rates higher, has the experience, vs a team that has simply been fortunate to have a great record by benefiting from playing the right teams at the right time, most of the season.
  
  

[dawggy]

las vegas cris


ALL BASKETBALL PLAYS

• Game: (797) Mercer at (798) Georgia Southern
  Date/Time: Dec 13 2020 6:00 PM EST
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Mercer -5.0 (-110)
  
  Mercer -5 (3%)
  Mercer has some great 3 pt shooters and they have been running up scores on quality opponents.
  +204% ROI L/1389 CBB (14-5 2020)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rainman

5 KC
3 ATL
1 saints vikes skins

Hoops

1☆ Mercer -4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Picks Weekly
Sunday, December 13th 2020

NFL:
*Washington +3 (-120)
Cincinnati +3 (-105)
New Orleans -8 (-105)
Green Bay/Detroit Under -56 (-120)

NCAAB:
*West Virginia -7 (-120)
San Francisco -4
San Francisco/Cal Over +136 (-119)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KIEV O'NEIL

Arizona -2.5 – 2.5 stars
Bears vs Houston - OVER 45 – 2 stars
San Francisco -3 – 2 stars

6pt teaser – 7-6 for the year: Packers to 1.5 with Tampa Bay to .5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

COMPUTER 900

300* JACKSONVILLE

300* NY GIANTS

300* LV RAIDERS

300* SEATTLE

300* LA CHARGERS

300* SF 49ers

300* PITTSBURGH

[Can'tPickAWinner]

OTL SPORTS

U'DOG OF THE MONTH' - JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS+7.5

other plays,,,,,,,

BENGALS+3

BEARS+2

CHARGERS (pk)

BUCS-6.5

RAIDERS+3

PANTHERS-3

WASHINGTON+3

NY JETS - SEAHAWKS - OVER 47.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HankWins

BIG' - CHIEFS / DOLPHINS - OVER 51