Saturday 11/28/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 07:19 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

November 28, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, there is an 11-race card scheduled at Cal Expo. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 8 and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Friday was Lemoyne Svendsen with 3 trips to the winner's circle. The leading conditioner on the night was Robert Corbin with 2 wins.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

7-Its Pointless (9/5)-Qualifier on 11/15 was fine and did win 4 straight at CalX back in February and March. Kennedy is back aboard tonight, and the Graham barn has started out well with 2 wins in 7 starts.
8-Bobs Time (5/2)-Drew off by 4 1/2 lengths on a "good" track in CalX debut last weekend. Should be battling the morning line chalk for top honors and having a race at the track is an edge.

Race 9

3-Lincoln (5-1)-Nine-year-old doesn't win on a regular basis but this is a soft spot and does have a race at the track. Doesn't like an off track (1-35) so last week's line doesn't mean much. Kennedy is in the bike and will look for better.
4-Stanhope (3-1)-Not in love with the 3-1 morning line but HoP invader should fit with this bunch. Has never raced at CalX and is only 5 for 38 over the past 2 years. Hard to dismiss in a race without a standout, and hopefully won't be over bet.
5-Fly Away (6-1)-Comes off a pair of qualifiers and 11-year-old can beat this bunch if comes up with a top effort. Usually is in the hunt at this class and draws well.
6-Fox Valley B Gump (4-1)-Tuned-up last week versus the $6k claimers and came 3rd on an-off track. This spot makes more sense and may try to blast out and not look back.
8-Sin Machqueen (6-1)-Was racing against $4k claimers at Aces and did well in the fall. Raced last week versus $6k claimers and was hung to the half and folded. Should be better tonight and this post will help the price.

Race 10

2-Casey N Grinegan (6-1)-Took the long way around last week on an off-track with a 56.4 back half to take a picture and now faces better. That was the 1st start since 10/4 and has only recorded 1 win in 14 tries on a wet surface.
4-Brooklyn Moonshine (15-1)-This one is worth a swing at this price. Tuned-up against Open III company last week. Drops to a better spot and Plano is between the pipes.
5-Lakota Law (3-1)-Here is the morning line chalk, is 1-17 at CalX and has not raced since 10/3. This was Svendsen's choice over the 3 and will use but look to others was well.
9-Nightgirl (9/1)-Bertrand trainee has beaten $7k claimers at Aces and raced well in a tune-up here last week. The post is a challenge but has been in the money in 11 of 20 at CalX with 5 wins. Also leads the field in earnings ($24k) with 7 wins in 2020.

Race 11

5-Paloma Ruiz (9/5)-Camera shy 4-year-old has beaten better at Aces and has had a race over the track. Could be driven aggressively and should like the company.
6-Street Parade (2-1)-Raced well last week in 1st CalX appearance. Roland takes the lines and makes 2nd start for new barn. May leave and there isn't much gate speed in this race. Could control the pace and not get caught down the lane.

0.20 Pick 4

7,8/3,4,5,6,8/2,4,5,9/5,6
Total Bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 07:20 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 11/28/20

November 28, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays for Saturday, November 28, 2020

Churchill Downs Second Race – Post Time: 1:28 ET
7 – Sylvia Q (4-1)

Ran quite well in her debut when finishing second with a better than par speed figure in a middle distance turf miler last month, and if she can transfer that form to the main track the daughter of Violence can earn her diploma in the maiden router for juveniles. With a nice recent breeze over the local dirt track, the P. Bauer-trained filly seems likely to produce a forward move, and in a field without much speed she projects to be on the lead or within striking range throughout. There’s a chance for a decent gamble at or near her morning line of 4-1.

*

Churchill Downs Fourth Race – Post Time: 2:27 ET
2 – Dolder Grand (7/2)

Juvenile colt returns to the maiden ranks after finishing a willing third in the Summer S.-G1 at Woodbine in September that produced a significant rise in the speed figure department following a promising maiden run. Certainly bred for dirt (Candy Ride) and training very well over the local surface since being shipped to the States, the M. Casse-trained colt stretches out to two-turns, picks up R. Santana, Jr., and is drawn comfortably inside to ensure a ground-saving trip. There’s good value to found if you can get close to his morning line of 7/2.

*

Santa Anita Seventh Race – Post Time: 3:30 PT
8 – Anothertwistafate (4-1)

Returned off a long layoff in winning form when capturing the Longacres Mile-G3 very impressively in mid-September and today makes his first start on grass and his first since being transferred to the P. Miller barn. He’s certainly is bred to enjoy turf, had a very impressive workout over the local lawn just six days ago and picks up J. Rosario, so we’re expecting a career top effort from the son of Scat Daddy. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s worth strong consideration in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 07:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #3

#8 Timely Tradition	She held her own with NY-bred stakes company last time out, and she should be able to get a pretty perfect trip from close range with these.
#10 Alisio	No doubt the one to beat off the back form, but she has been away since December and did not fire fresh in her only other layoff run. Feels like she's worth standing against if she takes a bunch of cash.
#5 Last True Love	She has been in with some pretty good groups this year, and there is plenty of pace signed on in here. The hope is that she'll get sprinted back a bit and pass some tiring speed for a piece at a big price.
Race Summary	Timely Tradition might be the right one to best Alisio. She has good tactical pace in a spot with plenty of early speed, and that first-jump run might be enough to get her home. I'll try to get Last True Love in the picture with either of the top two choices, too.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#5 Still Having Fun	He's a much better fit with this kind of company than with the likes of Vekoma and Firenze Fire, who he has been chasing in recent starts. Price player is worth a look.
#10 Majestic Dunhill	Landed a Grade III in the mud last out at Belmont, but he beat just three horses that day while tracking slow splits and might end up an underlay with these.
#13 Charge to Victory	Should be able to get a pretty good spot near the top with these, and he may be able to hang around a bit better late than some of the other forward types.
Race Summary	Still Having Fun has a big class edge on most of these, and he may be able to flash something better today while facing a bit friendlier group.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#8 Monongahela	Taking a swing with this guy as he moves back to the dirt. He hasn't been the same this year as he was in 2019 when turning in some big efforts, but the price will be right today to give him one more chance to see if he can rediscover that form for a top barn.
#5 Harpers First Ride	Took a step back off the big effort in the Grade III Pimlico Special win, but he's a reliable type and the clear one to beat again today.
#1 Bal Harbour	Drops for this after facing a steady diet of graded stakes company, and he's not really far off what it would take to win this. I'd want him on my multi-race tickets.
Race Summary	Monongahela needs a big form reversal, but he has run some big races locally in the past and will offer a better number on the board than he has in a long time.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 07:59 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#8 SPORTSLINE	Bid, led, tired as the favorite, good bounceback spot for 21-time winner.
#6 NICKEL BAG	Class showed in front-end victory from post 8 against lesser rivals.
#9 BETTOR B GOING	Should have livelier pace to launch consistent late kick.
Race Summary	Sportsline got first run but couldn’t hold the lead in a race dominated by deep closers. He was the beaten favorite in his last two starts but can reverse the trend despite a negative post switch. Play 8-6 and 8-9 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #7

#8 ITS JUST TOO MUCH	Rail rally was disrupted by traffic, post 8 no help, but big price worth a shot.
#1 TODDLER TANTRUM	Won 2 of last 4 to hold good form, starts from rail, use in gimmicks.
#3 ODDS ON LAUDERDALE	Changed tactics, led, faded to ninth against better.
Race Summary	Its Just Too Much made a quick rail advance, was blocked in the third quarter and finished willingly. He retains betting value and could upset with a clean trip. Play a 1-3-8 exacta box.

Cal-Expo - Race #7

#10 IMMA TANK	Rode pocket to upset win, post the big issue as he nears $100k mark.
#1 GUNNY WILSON	Rallied to finish 1-2-3 at Hawthorne, local qualifier uninspiring.
#4 GIGGLE MONSTER	Finished second or third in 15 of 26 this year, returns from Running Aces.
Race Summary	Imma Tank “put away” the 2-to-5 favorite to win off a seven-week layoff. He doesn’t shy from the photo-finish camera but has post 10 to negotiate tonight. Play a 10-1 and 10-4 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 08:00 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #3

#3 Happy Constitution	Held on for third in the Our Dear Page Stakes has been on the board in her last three; moves to turn and is bred to like it.
#5 Agog	Was third in the Indiana Summer at Keeneland after a maiden win at Ellis Park; gets Lopez for her first local start and the More Than Ready filly stretches out for the first time.
#2 I Get It	Goes for her third straight win and her latest was over this course; talented Get Stormy filly would not be a surprise.
Race Summary	Happy Constitution has been with good company on this circuit and this Constitution filly should be able to get the distance on grass.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#3 Hokkaido	Was impressive in a maiden win last time in her second start and has the closing move to get past these.
#4 Include the Beast	Was a clear winner in her only start and another big effort would not be out of the question.
#6 Rock With Robin	Romped to a maiden win two back and held on for third last time in her first vs. better; has the speed to be dangerous.
Race Summary	Hokkaido made a strong move through the stretch last time after battling through a slow pace; gets a good pace set-up here and probably will come off of it like she did in her debut two races back.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9

#1 American Ninja	Goes for his third straight win and takes a slight drop in class; won her last two for the Gallegos barn and will be the one to hold off here.
#8 Create Again	Is a main track only entrant and for a similar price ran off to a 17-length win in a race that came off the turf; the one to beat if this one moves to the main track.
#5 My Point Exactly	Finished second to Create Again last out and won going long two races back; can be in the hunt throughout.
Race Summary	American Ninja is in top form, has shown a liking for a big finish and should be too much for them late in this one.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 10:05 AM

Cappers Access

(Sat) NCAAF Ohio St
(Sat) NCAAF Penn St
(Sat) NCAAF Duke
(Sat) NCAAF UCLA

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:10 AM

College Football Odds Week 13: Opening Lines and Sharp Money
Patrick Everson

Quarterback Brock Purdy has helped put Iowa State in contention for its first-ever Big 12 championship. FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Cyclones 2.5-point underdogs at Texas.

College football odds for Week 13 are on the betting board and getting action, with a few games of note. At the top of the list, perhaps surprisingly, is upstart and undefeated Indiana traveling to the Horseshoe to face fellow unbeaten Ohio State.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on college football Week 13 opening lines, early line movement, sharp money and public betting for this week's matchups.

College Football Week 13 Odds

These are the current College football Week 13 odds for the premier games on the schedule, as of November 23.

(2) Notre Dame at (23) North Carolina Odds
Opening line
Notre Dame -6.5, Over/Under 63.5

Why the line moved
This line posted early at FanDuel, going up Nov. 17, and therefore has bounced all over the place. Notre Dame opened -6.5 and got out to -9, then plummeted to -3.5 and is -4.5 Monday evening. Despite the wild swings, ticket count and money are running 9/1 on the Fighting Irish. The total went up Sunday at 63.5 and is 66.5 Monday evening, with tickets and money similarly in the 9/1 range on the Over.

(15) Iowa State at (21) Texas Odds
Opening line
Texas -2.5, Over/Under 60.5

Why the line moved
The Longhorns are down to -1.5 on interesting point-spread betting splits, with the Cyclones getting 62 percent of tickets and Texas taking 55 percent of money as of Monday evening. The total is already down to 57.5 from 60.5, with 77 percent of bets on the Over, but 56 percent of money on the Under.

(11) Oregon at Oregon State Odds
Opening line
Oregon -16.5, Over/Under 61.5

Why the line moved
This storied Pac-12 rivalry is seeing the double-digit 'dog get early attention at FanDuel, where Oregon opened -16.5, dropped to -12.5 and is at -13.5 Monday evening. The total moved from 61.5 to 64.5. However, FanDuel doesn't yet have betting splits on the spread or total.

Kentucky at (5) Florida Odds
Opening line
Florida -19.5, Over/Under 59.5

Why the line moved
The Gators sprinted to -24.5 at FanDuel by early Monday morning and are -23.5 as of Monday night, with early point-spread tickets running 4/1 and money more than 9/1 on Florida. The total is down two points to 57.5, despite early tickets and money in the 9/1 range on the Over.

Pittsburgh at (4) Clemson Odds
Opening line
Clemson -26.5, Over/Under 55.5

Why the line moved
Clemson is down three points to -23.5 at FanDuel on Monday night, although 57 percent of bets/56 percent of dollars are on the Tigers. The total opened at 55.5 and is now 54.5 on limited betting, so FanDuel doesn't yet have splits.

(13) Northwestern at Michigan State Odds
Opening line
Northwestern -9.5, Over/Under 41.5

Why the line moved
Coming off its big upset of Wisconsin, Northwestern opened -9.5 and is already up to -13.5 Monday night at FanDuel, where 85 percent of early bets and 96 percent of early dollars are on the Wildcats. The total is up a point to 42.5, with ticket count 2/1 on the Under, but money 2/1 on the Over.

Colorado at (18) USC Odds
Opening line
Souther Cal -10.5, Over/Under 63.5

Why the line moved
Southern Cal reached -13.5 Monday afternoon and is at -12.5 Monday night at FanDuel, with ticket count and money both in the 9/1 range on the Trojans. The total is up a point to 64.5 on limited betting, so splits aren't yet available.

(3) Ohio State at Illinois Odds
Opening line
Ohio State -28.5, Over/Under 69.5

Why the line moved
FanDuel has the Buckeyes down to -27.5 Monday night, a notch below the opening number, even though early action is all Ohio State, which is attracting 87 percent of bets and 96 percent of money. The total initially dropped a point to 68.5 but is up to 70.5 Monday night, with 80 percent of tickets and 70 percent of money on the Over.

(19) Auburn at (1) Alabama Odds
Opening line
Alabama -21, Over/Under 60.5

Why the line moved
Alabama is up to -24.5 Monday night at FanDuel, where 61 percent of tickets and 69 percent of dollars are landing on the Crimson Tide. The total is up two points to 62.5, with practically all the early tickets and money on the Over.

LSU at (6) Texas A&M Odds
Opening line
Texas A&M -14.5, Over/Under 64.5

Why the line moved
The Aggies opened just a tick beyond two-touchdown favorites at FanDuel, then dipped to -12.5 Sunday night, but are now back up to -14.5 Monday night. Texas A&M is attracting 74 percent of early point-spread bets and 88 percent of early point-spread cash. The total fell from 64.5 to 62.5 and is back at the opener Monday night, with the ticket count dead even, but 94 percent of money on the Over.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:10 AM

127COLORADO ST -128 AIR FORCE
AIR FORCE is 20-44 ATS (-28.4 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att. since 1992.

129NEW MEXICO -130 UTAH ST
UTAH ST is 24-11 ATS (11.9 Units) after allowing 325 or more passing yards in their last game since 1992.

131UCF -132 S FLORIDA
S FLORIDA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. incredible offensive teams - scoring 37 or more points/game in the last 3 seasons.

137STANFORD -138 CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) when the line is +/-3 since 1992.

139OREGON -140 OREGON ST
OREGON ST is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after playing a game at home over the last 2 seasons.

143IOWA ST -144 TEXAS
TEXAS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when the total is 56.5-63 in the last 3 seasons.

147NEBRASKA -148 IOWA
IOWA is 52-25 ATS (24.5 Units) vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992.

151WYOMING -152 UNLV
UNLV is 54-88 ATS (-42.8 Units) after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

153SOUTHERN MISS -154 UAB
UAB is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in home games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers in the last 3 seasons.

155TCU -156 KANSAS
KANSAS are 41-70 ATS (-36 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.

161GEORGIA -162 S CAROLINA
GEORGIA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 34 or more points/game since 1992.

165SMU -166 E CAROLINA
E CAROLINA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.

167PITTSBURGH -168 CLEMSON
PITTSBURGH is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) on the road when the total is 52.5-56 since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:11 AM

NCAAF

Week 13

13 of the weekend’s best games

Notre Dame (8-0) @ North Carolina (6-2)
— Notre Dame won its first eight games (4-4 ATS)
— ND ran for 209+ yards in six of last seven games.
— Notre Dame has 7 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Notre Dame has 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Notre Dame’s senior QB has made 31 career starts.
— Notre Dame is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road favorite.

— North Carolina is 6-2, scoring 56-59 points in last two games.
— UNC is 4-0 at home, scoring 48.5 ppg.; they’re underdogs for first time this year
— Carolina gained 556+ yards in each of its last six games.
— Tar Heels have 10 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Tech has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
— UNC has a soph QB with 21 career starts.
— Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.

— Notre Dame (-14) won 33-10 here in last meeting, in 2017.

Stanford (0-2) @ California (0-2)
— Stanford lost its first two games, 35-14/35-32.
— Cardinal allowed 928 yards in those two games.
— Cardinal has 9 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Stanford has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cardinal has a junior QB with 8 career starts.
— Stanford is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.

— California lost its first two games, both on road.
— Golden Bears gave up 34-31 points, 449 rushing yards in those games.
— Golden Bears have 10 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Cal has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Golden Bears have a junior QB has started 21 games.
— Cal is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a home underdog.

— Cal upset Stanford 24-20 LY, snapping a 9-game series skid.
— Favorites covered six of last eight series games.
— Cardinal won/covered their last five visits to Berkeley.

Oregon (3-0) @ Oregon State (1-2)
— Oregon won its first three games, scoring 38.7 ppg.
— Ducks gained exactly 500 ypg in those games.
— Oregon has 4 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Ducks have 21 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Oregon has a soph QB with three starts.
— Ducks are 6-2 ATS in last 8 games as a road favorite.

— Oregon State lost two of first three games, giving up 30.7 ppg.
— Beavers have given up average of 206.7 rushing yards/game.
— OSU has 5 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Ducks have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Oregon State has a junior QB with four starts.
— Beavers are 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 games as a home underdog.

— Ducks won 11 of last 12 games with the Beavers.
— Oregon won/covered five of last six visits to Corvallis.

Iowa State (6-2) @ Texas (5-2)
— Iowa State won six of last seven games, scoring 45 ppg in last three.
— Cyclones won two of three road games, losing 24-21 at Oklahoma State.
— Cyclones have 5 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— ISU has 33 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 29 starts.
— ISU is 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.

— Longhorns won last three games, scoring 28.3 ppg.
— Three of last five Texas games went to overtime.
— Texas has 7 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Longhorns have 71 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Texas has a senior QB with 39 career starts.
— Longhorns are 7-12 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite.

— Texas won 13 of last 16 games vs Iowa State.
— Longhorns won 7 of last 8 visits to Ames (5-3 ATS).

Virginia (4-4) @ Florida State (2-6)
— Virginia won its last three games, after a 1-4 start.
— Cavaliers scored 43.3 ppg in their last three games.
— Virginia has 7 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Cavaliers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Virginia has a soph QB with eight starts.
— Cavaliers are 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.

— Florida State lost its last three games, giving up 43.3 ppg.
— Seminoles are 0-6 when they run ball for less than 241 yards.
— FSU has 7 starters back on offense, 10 starters back on defense.
— Seminoles have 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
— FSU has used four QB’s; they’ve settled on a soph.
— FSU is 3-5 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.

— Teams split their last six meetings.
— Virginia is 3-2 ATS in its last five visits to Tallahassee.
— Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games.

Northwestern (5-0) @ Michigan State (1-3)
— Northwestern won its first five games, allowing 12.6 ppg.
— Last four games, Wildcats gained only 286.3 ypg.
— Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Northwestern has 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Northwestern has a senior QB with 28 career starts.
— Wildcats are 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road favorite.

— Michigan State was outscored 73-7 in its last two games.
— Thru four games, Spartans are minus-9 in turnovers.
— Spartans have 7 starters back on offense, 3 starters back on defense.
— MSU has 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Michigan State’s junior QB has started seven games.
— Since 2017, MSU is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog.

— Northwestern won four of last six games with Michigan State.
— Wildcats covered their last eight visits to East Lansing.

Penn State (0-5) @ Michigan (2-3)
— Penn State lost its first five games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Nittany Lions have been minus in turnovers every game (-9).
— PSU has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Penn State has 85 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nittany Lions yanked their starting QB at Nebraska; the soph backup, this would be the backup’s 2nd college start.
— Since 2014, Penn State is 3-5 ATS as a road underdog.

— Michigan lost three of its last four games, giving up 36 ppg.
— Wolverines lost both their home games, 27-24/49-11.
— Last three games, Michigan is minus-4 in turnovers.
— Michigan has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Wolverines have only 17 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Michigan yanked their QB last game; the backup threw for 260 yards, four TD’s. This will be his first college start.
— Wolverines are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

— Home side won last four series games.
— Michigan won four of last six series tilts.
— Nittany Lions are covered once in last five visits to Ann Arbor.

San Jose State (4-0) @ Boise State (4-1)
— San Jose is 4-0 for the first time since 1955.
— Spartans won only road game, 28-17 at San Diego State.
— Spartans have 6 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— San Jose has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Spartans have a senior QB with 14 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
— Last 2+ years, San Jose is 9-3 ATS as a road underdog.

— Boise State scored 40+ points in all four of its wins.
— Broncos are minus-4 in turnovers in their last three games.
— Boise has 5 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Broncos have 37 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Boise has a soph QB with 11 career starts.
— Since 2010, Boise State is 14-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.

— Boise won its last 13 games with San Jose (5-2 ATS in last seven).
— Spartans are 2-4 ATS in last six games on the blue carpet.

LSU (3-3) @ Texas A&M (5-1)
— LSU split their first six games; they’re an underdog for first time this year.
— Tigers gave up 44-45-48 points in losses; 7-24-24 in wins.
— LSU has 3 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Tigers have 43 returning starts on the offensive line.
— LSU has a freshman QB with two career starts.
— Tigers covered last five games as a road underdog.

— This is Texas A&M’s first game in three weeks.
— Texas A&M won last four games, scoring 39.8 ppg.
— Aggies scored 42-48 points in their last two games.
— A&M has 8 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Aggies have 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
— A&M’s has a senior QB with 39 career starts.
— Under Fisher, Aggies are 9-5 ATS as a home favorite, 0-2 TY.

— LSU won eight of last nine series games; only loss was 74-72 in 7 OT’s in 2018.
— LSU covered all nine of those games (1-0 ATS as the underdog).
— Tigers won three of last four visits here, losing last one 74-72.

Mississippi State (2-5) @ Ole Miss (3-4)
— Miss State lost five of six games, scoring 14.7 ppg.
— Bulldogs lost last three road games, by 22-41-7 points.
— MSU has 6 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rebels have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
— MSU has switched to a freshman QB; he’s started four games.
— Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a road underdog. Leach is 19-10 ATS in his last 29 games as a road dog, 2-2 this season.

— Ole Miss is 3-4; they’ve allowed 33+ points in six of seven games.
— Rebels scored 42.5 ppg in first four home games, but they’re 1-3.
— Ole Miss has 8 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rebels have 48 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Ole Miss’s sophomore QB is making his 12th career start.
— Last 2+ years, Rebels are 6-3 ATS as a home favorite.

— Underdogs covered five of last seven Egg Bowls.
— State won three of last four series games.
— Bulldogs won last two visits to Oxford, by combined 90-23.

Utah (0-1) @ Arizona State (0-1)
— Utah lost its opener 33-17 to USC last week.
— Utes were outscored 9-0 in second half; they were -3 in turnovers.
— Utah has 4 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Utes have 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Utah’s new quarterback started 33 games at South Carolina.
— Utah is 11-2 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— ASU lost its opener 28-27 at USC, blowing a 13-point lead in last 2:52.
— Sun Devils haven’t played in three weeks.
— Sun Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— ASU has 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Sun Devils have a soph QB with 13 career starts.
— Under Edwards, ASU is 3-9 ATS as a favorite, 3-5 at home.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Utes lost three of last four visits to Tempe (2-2 ATS).

Tulsa (3-1) @ Houston (2-2)
— Tulsa won its last five games, after a 16-7 loss at Oklahoma State.
— Golden Hurricane scored 31.6 ppg in its five wins.
— Golden Hurricane has 9 starters back on offense, 4 starters back on defense.
— Tulsa has 65 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulsa’s senior QB has 28 career starts.
— Tulsa covered eight of its last nine road games.

— Houston split its first four games, giving up 43-44 points in its losses.
— Cougars gave up 402-328 passing yards in their two losses.
— Houston won its only road game, 37-21 at Navy.
— Cougars have 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Houston has 71 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 13 games.
— Since 2013, Cougars are 11-2-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Houston won five of last six series games.
— Tulsa lost last three visits here, but covered last five.
— Underdogs covered four of last five series games.

Nevada (5-0) @ Hawai’i (2-2)
— Nevada won its first five games, despite a -1 turnover ratio, and running for fewer than 100 yards in three of the five games.
— Wolf Pack won its two road games, 37-19 at UNLV, 27-20 at New Mexico.
— Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Wolf Pack has 72 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Nevada’s soph QB has 15 career starts.
— Wolf Pack covered eight of its last ten road games.

— Hawai’i lost its last two games; they gave up 35.7 ppg in last three.
— Rainbows allowed 279+ rushing yards in three of last four games.
— Hawai’i has 6 starters back on offense, 5 starters back on defense.
— Rainbows have 125 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Hawai’i’s soph QB has started nine games.
— Rainbows are 4-2 ATS as a home underdog.

— Underdogs won last four series games SU.
— Nevada won three of its last four visits to Hawai’i.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:11 AM

Tech Trends - Week 13
Bruce Marshall

GEORGIA SOUTHERN at GEORGIA STATE (ESPN3, Noon)
Georgia Southern has gone UNDER the point total in eight of its last 11 games.
The point total has gone UNDER in three straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: Georgia Southern and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

N.C. STATE at SYRACUSE (ACCN, Noon)
N.C. State has gone OVER in nine of its last 13 games.

Tech Edge: N.C. State and OVER based on team and point total trends.

MARYLAND at INDIANA (ESPN2, Noon)
Indiana has covered the spread in five straight games.
Indiana has covered the spread in 12 of its last 15 games.
The home team has covered the spread in four straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: Indiana based on recent trends.

KENTUCKY at FLORIDA (ESPN, Noon)
Mark Stoops has covered the spread in three straight games when facing Florida.
Mark Stoops has covered the spread in 11 of his last 16 games.
Florida has covered the spread in eight of its last nine home games.

Tech Edge: Florida based on team trends.

TULSA at HOUSTON (ESPNU, Noon)
Tulsa has won five of its last six games.
Dana Holgorsen has lost 11 of his last 18 games.
Houston has won five of its last six games when facing Tulsa.

Tech Edge: Tulsa based on recent trends.

TEXAS TECH at OKLAHOMA STATE (FOX, Noon)
Texas Tech has covered the spread in four straight games when facing Oklahoma State.
Texas Tech has failed to cover its first three road games this season.
Oklahoma State e has gone UNDER the point total in nine of its last 11 games.

Tech Edge: Texas Tech and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

SMU at EAST CAROLINA (ESPN+, Noon)
ECU has covered the spread in eight of its last 13 games as the underdog.
SMU has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven road games.
ECU has gone OVER the point total in 10 of its last 14 games.

Tech Edge: ECU and OVER based on team and point total trends.

OHIO STATE at ILLINOIS (FS1, Noon)
Ryan Day is 5-1 vs. the line in conference road games.
Lovie Smitth has gone UNDER the point total in 12 of his last 19 games.

Tech Edge: Ohio State and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

PENN STATE at MICHIGAN (ABC, Noon)
Penn State has lost five straight games.
Michigan has failed to cover the spread in four of its last five games.
Michigan has won four of its last five games when facing Penn State.

Tech Edge: Michigan based on recent series trends.

KENT STATE at BUFFALO (CBSSN, Noon)
Buffalo has covered the spread in two of its last three games when facing Kent State.
Kent State has covered the spread in six straight games as the underdog.
Buffalo has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last nine games.

Tech Edge: Kent State and OVER based on team and point total trends.

NORHTERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN (ESPN+, Noon)
Northern Illinois has lost 10 of its last 15 games.
The underdog has covered the spread in four straight games played between both schools.
Northern Illinois has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last 10 games.

Tech Edge: Western Michigan and OVER based on team and point total trends.

BALL STATE at TOLEDO (ESPN3, Noon)
Ball State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last six games.
Ball State has gone OVER the point total in six of its last seven games.
Toledo has gone OVER the point total in seven of its last nine games.

Tech Edge: OVER baed on point total trends.

MIAMI-OHIO at AKRON (ESPN3, 1 p.m.)
Akron has lost 15 straight games.
Miami-Ohio has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games.

Tech Edge: Miami-Ohio based on Akron woes.

UTEP at RICE (ESPN3, 1 p.m.)
The road team has won and covered the spread in three straight games played between both schools.
Rixce has lost five of its last six games as the favorite.

Tech Edge: UTEP based on team trends.

MINNESOTA at WISCONSIN (BTN, 2 p.m.)
The home team has failed to cover the spread in six straight games played between both schools.
P.J. Fleck has won seven of his last 11 games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: Minnesota based on series trends.

NORTH TEXAS at UTSA (3 p.m.)
North Texas has failed to cover the spread in 18 of its last 24 games.
The home team has covered the spread in six straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: UTSA based on team trends.

COASTAL CAROLINA at TEXAS STATE (ESPN+, 3 p.m.)
Coastal Carolina has covered the spread in 10 of its last 14 games.
Texas State has covered the spread in four straight home games as the underdog.
Texas State has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: Texas State based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA at ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN3, 3 p.m.)
South Alabama has gone UNDER in 16 of its last 21 games.
The home team has won and covered the spread in four straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: UNDER based on point total trends.

LOUISIANA at UL-MONROE (ESPN3, 3 p.m.)
The underdog has covered the spread in three straight games played between both schools.
UL-Monroe has failed to cover the spread in 19 of its last 29 games.
Louisiana has failed to cover the spread in five of its last eight games.

Tech Edge: UL-Monroe based on team trends.

AUBURN at ALABAMA (CBS, 3:30 p.m.)
The home team has won seven of the last eight games played between both schools.
Alabama has won and covered the spread in four straight home games when facing Auburn since getting beat by Cam Newton in 2010.
Alabama has covered the spread in four straight home games.

Tech Edge: Alabama based on series and team trends.

PITTSBURGH at CLEMSON (ESPN, 3:30 p.m.)
Clemson is 2-6 vs. the line this season.

Tech Edge: Pittsburgh based on team trends.

COLORADO at USC (ABC, 3:30 p.m.)
USC has won nine straight games when facing Colorado.
Colorado has covered the spread in three of its last five games when facing USC.

Tech Edge: Colorado based on recent trends.

NORTHWESTERN at MICHIGAN STATE (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.)
Northwestern has won five straight games.
Northwestern has gone UNDER the point total in six straight games.
Michigan State has failed to cover the spread in 15 of its last 21 games.
Northwestern has covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Michigan State.

Tech Edge: Iowa State based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MIDDLE TENNESSEE (CBSSN, 3:30 p.m.)
FAU is 13-7 vs. the line over last 20 games.
Middle Tennessee has won seven of its last 10 games as the underdog.
The home team has won and covered the spread in four straight games played betwen both schools.

Tech Edge: FAU based on recent trends.

SAN JOSE STATE at BOISE STATE (FOX, 4 p.m.)
San Jose State has covered the spread in 13 of its last 18 games.
San Jose State has covered the spread in 10 of its last 13 games when playing as the underdog.
Boise State has covered the spread in six of its last seven conference home games.

Tech Edge: San Jose State based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at BOSTON COLLEGE (ACCN, 4 p.m.)
Boston College has covered the spread in three straight games when facing Louisville.
Boston College has lost seven of its last nine games as the favorite.

Tech Edge: Louisville based on BC chalk trends.

RUTGERS at PURDUE (FS1, 4 p.m.)
Rutgers has lost four straight games.
Purdue has seen the underdog cover the spread in 12 of its last 13 games.
Purdue has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games.

Tech Edge: Purdue based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at MISSISSIPPI (SECN, 4 p.m.)
MIssissippi State has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games.
Mississippi State has won and covered the spread in three of its last four games when facing Ole Miss.
Lane Kiffin has covered the spread in 14 of his last 21 games.

Tech Edge: Ole Miss based on recent trends.

CINCINNATI at TEMPLE (ESPNU, 4 p.m.)
Cincinnati has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games.
Cincinnati has covered the spread in five of its last eight games as the favorite.
Cincinnati has gone UNDER the point total in 15 of its last 22 games.
Temple has covered the spread in five straight games when facing Cincinnati.
Temple has failed to cover the spread in three straight home games.

Tech Edge: Temple based on series trends.

DUKE at GEORGIA TECH (ESPN3, 7 p.m.)
Georgia Tech has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 19 games.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover the spread in six straight games when facing Duke.
Duke has won five of its last six games when facing Georgia Tech.
Georgia Tech has gone OVER the point total in 11 of its last 15 games.

Tech Edge: Duke and OVER based on team and point total trends.

KANSAS STATE at BAYLOR (ESPN2, 7 p.m.)
Kansas State has won nine of its last 13 games as the underdog.
The undnerdog has covered the spread in five straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: Kansas State based on team and series trends.

LSU at TEXAS A&M (ESPN, 7 p.m.)
LSU has covered the spread in eight straight games when facing Texas A&M.
LSU has won eight of its last 10 games as the underdog.
Texas A&M has failed to cover the spread in five of its last eight home games.

Tech Edge: LSU based on series trends.

OKLAHOMA at WEST VIRGINIA (ABC, 7:30 p.m.)
West Virginia has covered the spread in four of its last five home games.
West Virginia has covered the spread in six of its last nine games.

Tech Edge: West Virginia based on recent trends.

GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA (SECN, 7:30 p.m.)
Georgia has seen the home team go 5-1 vs. the line.
The road team has covered the spread in four straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: Georgia based on series trends.

VIRGINIA at FSU (ACCN, 8 p.m.)
FSU is 8-18 vs. the board in last 26 games.
Virginia has gone UNDER the point total in 11 of its lat 13 games.
Virginia has covered the spread in eight of its last 11 games.

Tech Edge: Virginia and UNDER based on team and point total trends.

TROY at APPALACHIAN STATE (ESPNU, 8 p.m.)
App State is 1-8 vs. the line over last nine games.
Troy has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 20 games.
Troy has failed to cover the spread in five of its last seven games as the underdog.

Tech Edge: App State based on recent series trends.

ARIZONA at UCLA (FOX, 8 p.m.)
Arizona has failed to cover the spread in 10 of its last 14 games.
The underdog has covered the spread in three straight games played between both schools.
UCLA has lost six of its last seven games as the favorite.

Tech Edge: Arizona based on series trends.

TCU at KANSAS (FS1, 8 p.m.)
Kansas has lost seven straight games.
The home team has covered four straight games played between both schools.

Tech Edge: TCU based on recent Kansas woes.

NEVADA at HAWAII (11 p.m.)
Nevada has won five straight games.
Nevada has won and covered the spread in three of its last four games when playing in Hawaii.
Hawaii has failed to cover the spread in 12 of its last 16 conference home games.

Tech Edge: Nevada based on team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:25 AM

Brandon Siefken

Event: Yalova Group Belediye vs Manisa BSB Spor
Sport/League: BSKT
Date/Time: November 28, 2020 7AM EST
Play: Home -160
The bookies are giving too much credit to the vistor Manisa in the TBL Turkish Basketball League. My numbers have Yalova as a 16 point favorite and at home for the money line odds it is a great value bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:25 AM

Gianni the Greek

Event: (191) Maryland at (192) Indiana
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 28, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Maryland +11.5 (-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:30 AM

Marco D'Angelo

Event: (165) SMU at (166) East Carolina
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 28, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Total Over 67.5 (-110)
FREE PLAY: SMU/E. CAROLINA OVER 67.5

SMU had their game cancelled last week but it was the other team that had the Covid issues so no practices were missed. Don’t be fooled by E. Carolina’s defensive performance last week as they held Temple to 3 points. Temple is dismal this year and E. Carolina will not be able to stop this SMU offense. In the 3 games prior to last week E. Carolina allowed 34,38 and 55 points. SMU only scored 24 points in their last game but that was at Tulsa who is the best team in the conference and actually plays good defense something you don’t see in this conference. In the two games before their last game SMU scored 51 and 47. SMU just misses as 200 Club team as they run for 188 YPG and pass for 318 yards per game. E. Carolina’s defense is #105 out of 131 teams allowing 6.4 YPP. SMU’s defense is no bargain either allowing 23 points or more in all but 2 games and one of those two was against Stephen F Austin.

PROJECTED POINTS 72 or more TAKE OVER 67.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 11-28-2020, 11:31 AM

Steve Merril

Event: (221) Texas Tech at (222) Oklahoma State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: November 28, 2020 12PM EST
Play: Oklahoma State -11.0 (-110)
-Texas Tech is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road with every loss coming by 10 points or more
-Oklahoma State comes in off a blowout loss; expect a big bounce back effort at home
-Cowboys give up 4.7 yards per play at home vs. offenses that average 5.7 yards per play
Play OKLAHOMA STATE (-).