Monday 11/16/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook ran roughshod over the Lions in Week 9, rolling up his first 200-yard game in the NFL. It helped Minnesota win in back-to-back game for the first time this season, and they improved to 5-1 ATS across the past six. The 'over' is also 3-0 in a season high three in a row, while going 5-1 in the past six overall. The Bears offense was flat again, falling 24-17 in Nashville against the Titans. After opening the season 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS, the Bears have dropped three in a row while going just 1-2 ATS. They're averaging a dismal 16.7 PPG in the three games, too, while allowing 24.7 PPG. The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for Chicago, too. We'll see if QB Kirk Cousins can finally get over the hump on Monday Night Football. He enters this one with an 0-9 record on Mondays posting 11 touchdowns and six interceptions in those games.

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Vikings at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Three weeks ago, Chicago was 5-1 SU and seemingly in good form. Now the Bears are 5-4 SU and on a three-game skid, while Minnesota won its last two, a road upset of Green Bay and Sunday's 34-20 home win over Detroit. So even though Minnesota is just 3-5 SU and Chicago is at home, the Bears are catching 2.5 points at The SuperBook for the Week 10 Monday night tilt.

"We just looked at who we think people will be looking to bet, after what they've seen the last two weeks," Murray said. There was no disagreement with the line Sunday night, as it did not move.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10


Monday, November 16

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MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 4) - 11/16/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-85 ATS (-36.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago (5-4)
— Vikings are 2-0 since their bye, running ball for 173-275 yards.
— Minnesota covered five of its last six games.
— Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20 in wins.
— Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+5).
— Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
— Minnesota split its four road games SU this season.

— Bears lost their last three games, after a 5-1 start.
— Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
— Bears are 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog, 2-1 TY.
— Chicago split its four home games SU this season.
— Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

— Bears won last four series games.
— Vikings lost 25-20/16-6 in their last two visits to Chicago.
— Minnesota scored 11.7 ppg in last three series games.

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NFL

Week 10

Trend Report

Monday, November 16

Minnesota @ Chicago
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago
Chicago is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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Tech Trends - Week 10
Bruce Marshall

Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Nov. 12 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Monday, Nov. 16

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO
Vikings have covered 5 of last 6 this season despite 3-5 SU mark.
Minnesota has covered last four games as a underdog.
Bears have lost last three games, all non-divisional matchups.

Tech Edge: Vikings and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

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Vikings vs. Bears Week 10 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

As someone who does own a Vikings future for the conference, it's nice to see a bit of life injected back into that ticket, but how much life is up for debate.

Minnesota had no problem opening up as a short road favorite in Chicago this week, so it's pretty clear I'm not the only one out there that's hoping those past futures may not be done yet.

Chicago just can't score the football on anyone right now, so even on an off-day for the Vikings, can the Bears really be trusted? The spot is decent for Chicago as short home dogs, and they've had success against Minnesota in past years.

But this year's Bears team really struggles to move the ball, and the Vikings defense has been getting better.

An interesting dilemma to firmly stand on a side to say the least.

Betting Resources

Week 10 Matchup: NFC North
Venue: Soldier Field
Location: Chicago, Illinois
Date: Monday, Nov. 16, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Dalvin Cook leads the NFL with 12 rushing touchdowns as the Vikings battle the Bears. (AP)

Vikings-Bears Betting Odds

Spread: Minnesota -3
Money-Line: Minnesota -160, Chicago +140
Total: 43

2020 Betting Stats

Minnesota

Overall: 3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS, 6-2 O/U
Road: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 27.1 (Rank 12)
Defense PPG: 29.3 (Rank 25)
Offense YPG: 382.0 (Rank 11)
Defense YPG: 412.9 (Rank 29)

Chicago

Overall: 5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS, 3-6 O/U
Home: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Offense PPG: 19.8 (Rank 29)
Defense PPG: 21.1 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 317.8 (Rank 29)
Defense YPG: 335.1 (Rank 9)

Handicapping the Total

The first thought here is that if you are landing on the Bears side or at least leaning there quite a bit, then liking the 'under' just as much should be the likely way to attack this game on the total.

More games that end with a positive result for Chicago are going to be those 20-17 type games that saw Chicago sweep the season series last year and win four in a row overall.

The scores last year were 16-6 Bears and 21-19 Bears, so if you are leaning Bears and still have issues trusting their offense, it might be worth the time to shift focus to an 'under' look.

But if you like the Vikings here the total does become much tougher. The defense has gotten loose in garbage time the last two weeks when they thankfully could afford it, but it's also helped two likely 'unders' flip late to those 'over' bettors.

Based on how last year's meetings went, Minnesota may prefer to play a faster pace to try and get the score up in the unreachable range for Chicago. But it is strength on strength when it's Cook running against Chicago's defense and a 20-17 Vikings win is always possible too.

Only one of the past eight meetings between these two had more than 45 total points scored, and six of the eight were capped at 40 points. It's much easier to pass then really sweat out an 'under' play as the better look I believe.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 29, 2019 - Chicago 21 at Minnesota 19, Vikings +5, Over 36.5
Sep. 29, 2019 - Chicago 16 vs. Minnesota 6, Bears +1, Under 38
Dec. 30, 2018 - Chicago 24 at Minnesota 10, Bears +6, Under 40.5
Nov. 18, 2018 - Chicago 25 vs. Minnesota 20, Bears -2.5, Over 44

Handicapping the Side

Passing on the total without too much of a fight does suggest I like the Vikings here and I do believe that Minnesota is the play. Some of that is seasoned in preseason beliefs of Minnesota being a far better team ten they've shown so far, as now that they've started to play well there isn't much of a reason to abandon the ship now.

But this is also about a Bears offense that has absolutely nothing that resembles any sort of identity other than one who knows how to get off the field in a hurry. Even in a game where the Vikings may not have their best stuff and/or Chicago's defense can eliminate Cook, I don't know how you can trust this Bears side to stay close enough. Minnesota has given up a garbage time TD in each of their last two wins to make those scores look closer than they were, and the Vikings would love to make it a clean run through the division.

Minnesota may have started off rough, but a win here would make it three straight division wins with Dallas, Carolina and Jacksonville all up next, and all at home for the Vikings. My Minnesota futures will have more than just a breath at that point.

The Bears are 2nd worst in the league in converting 3rd downs (32.26%), and that's just marginally better than the Jets. Against a team that's on the come up and seeing a lot of green grass ahead in ease of their schedule, the Bears likely continue to get exposed here.

In a close game I'm going to go down with Cousins, his decisions, and the talent around him over anything I can expect to confidently get from Chicago's offense. It might actually be that simple for me.

Key Injuries

Minnesota

CB Cameron Dantzler: Concussion - Questionable
TE Irv Smith Jr.: Groin - Out

Chicago

NT John Jenkins: Ankle - Out
TE Cole Kmet: Groin - Questionable
S Sherrick McManis: Hand - Out
LB Barkevious Mingo: Shoulder - Questionable
RB David Montgomery: Concussion - Out
C Sam Mustipher: Knee - Doubtful
WR Allen Robinson II: Knee - Questionable
OT Jason Spriggs: Knee - Questionable
QB Mitchell Trubisky: Shoulder - Out

Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
Over-Under: 4-6

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Bobby Conn

Nov 16 '20, 8:15 PM in 6h
NFL | Vikings vs Bears
Play on: Vikings -3 +100 at William Hill

1* Free Play on Vikings -3 +100

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Mike Williams

Nov 16 '20, 8:15 PM in 6h
NFL | Vikings vs Bears
Play on: Vikings -3 +100 at William Hill

1* on Vikings -3 +100

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Dustin Hawkins

Nov 16 '20, 8:15 PM in 6h
NFL | Vikings vs Bears
Play on: Vikings -3 +100 at William Hill

1 Dimer on Vikings -3 +100

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Will Rogers

Nov 16 '20, 8:15 PM in 6h
NFL | Vikings vs Bears
Play on: OVER 43 -106

The set-up: This should be a competitive game. Note that Minnesota has not gone below 50 in any of its last six games. The Bears' strength is their defense, but after putting up 17 points against Tennessee in a loss last time out, the home side will have plenty of opportunties against a defense which has conceded 65 points over its last three games as well.
The picks: The Bears have also seen the total go "over" the number in ten of their last 15 after three or more SU setbacks. In this important divisional contest, I believe these teams will combine for just enough points to push this total "over" once it's all said and done.
This is a 1* FREE PLAY on the OVER Vikes/Bears.

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Tys Terrific Tips

NFL CHICAGO BEARS +3.5

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Joe Wiz

NFL Chicago under 44

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Cappers Access

(Mon) NFL Vikings