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N.Y. GIANTS +3.5
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:17 AM
If you can take 3.5 points or buy up, there is value. San Francisco lost too many big-time players last week to still be a favorite. QB Jimmy Garoppolo a 2.5-point drop to Nick Mullen and RB Raheem Mostert is a drop of 1.5 points. Last year, San Francisco averaged 1.5 less yards per play without Mostert. DE Nick Bosa is a 1.5-point player that dominates against the run and pressures the quarterback. Last season, the 49ers' defense allowed opponent passers to post a five-percent higher passing rating and running backs to gain almost a yard more per carry. It is time for Daniel "Dimes" Jones to pull out a win for the Giants.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
3-2 IN LAST 5 SF ATS PICKS | +67
DALLAS +4.5
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
10:13 AM
I have Dallas' defense rated higher than Seattle's, and so far this year, the Seahawks are allowing 6.6 yards per play to Dallas' 5.6. Russell Wilson has been great, but he has done so against the 21st- and 32nd-ranked defenses in the NFL. The Cowboys' offense will have a big day against Seattle's defense. Over the last five years, teams that start 0-2 ATS are 22-7 ATS in Week 3, and Dallas is 0-2 ATS.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
3-2 IN LAST 5 SEA ATS PICKS | +73
CAROLINA +6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
10:10 AM
Chargers coach Anthony Lynn had two solid seasons until last year's disappointing 5-11 campaign. Rookie QB Justin Herbert made his NFL debut last week and looked great against a Chiefs defense that I have rated as average. I was on the Chargers last week because I felt the Super Bowl champs could be looking past Los Angeles and toward their Monday Night matchup with Baltimore the following week. The Chargers' defense is now without three starters after losing DE Melvin Ingram (1.5 points) this week. The Panthers averaged 0.1 yards per play more than Tampa Bay in their loss last week.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
4-0 IN LAST 4 LAC ATS PICKS | +400
2-1 IN LAST 3 CAR ATS PICKS | +90
CHICAGO +3
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:05 AM
I love underdogs with better defense ratings. Yes, I know the Falcons' offense is better than Chicago's, but I think that both differences are a wash. Atlanta's defense is allowing a league-worst 7.1 points per play and an average of 39 per game. I expected that defense to actually make Mitchell Trubisky to look good. The Bears' pass defense is one of four allowing opposing QBs to complete less than 60 percent of their attempts with two interceptions and one touchdown pass. This game comes down to the wire.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
2-1 IN LAST 3 ATL ATS PICKS | +100
LAS VEGAS +6.5
LAS VEGAS @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
10:01 AM
This is not your uncle's New England Patriots. This team will get better as the year goes on, but it lost way too much talent and currently is below-average. Several important players left the team before the season started and the captain of the offensive line, David Andrews, was placed on IR on Saturday, dropping the Patriots' rating another 1 1/2 points. All of the tangible trends add up for New England, with the Patriots coming off a SU loss (69 percent ATS) and the Raiders a SU win (36 percent). Those trends will not matter with Las Vegas coming in three points better on paper than New England.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
2-1 IN LAST 3 LV ATS PICKS | +92
UNDER 42.5
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:12 PM
The 49ers have four key players out, and while I think their offense will struggle without Jimmy Garoppolo the defense will still be stellar without Nick Bosa. The Giants offensive line has been horrendous and cannot open holes for anyone, which is why they have rushed for only 52.0 yards per game (worst in the NFL). Take the Under.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS | +95
8-2 IN LAST 10 NYG O/U PICKS | +578
UNDER 42.5
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:06 PM
The Broncos have their five best players out for this one, but I think the defense will play well at home. And between QB Jeff Driskel and RB Melvin Gordon I think they can make a few drives and run some clock but settle for field goals. Denver has stayed Under in 12 of its last 16 home games. This Under bet is about the Broncos defense and the mile-high altitude.
2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL O/U PICKS | +95
5-2 IN LAST 7 TB O/U PICKS | +280
PITTSBURGH -4
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 6:48 PM
Houston hasn’t looked smooth in its first two games, but those games happened to be against the top two AFC teams (Chiefs and Ravens). The desperation of being 0-2 is the only thing that scares me a bit with the Texans. Pittsburgh has quietly jumped out to 2-0 with Ben Roethlisberger looking great in his return. The Steelers have more balance and should be able to attack the Houston run defense that allows 198.0 yards per game. I’m on the Steelers.
11-4-1 IN LAST 16 HOU ATS PICKS | +667
10-6 IN LAST 16 PIT ATS PICKS | +325
GREEN BAY +3
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS | 9/27 | 8:20 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
The Packers' offense has looked its best in the Aaron Rodgers era through two games, averaging 42 ppg with a balanced attack that begins with 208 rushing yards per game. The Saints, who will likely be without star wideout Michael Thomas again, have looked sloppy in both games and should have trouble keeping up. No fans in the stands will take away a big home edge. Packers get the cover Sunday.
WASHINGTON +7
WASHINGTON @ CLEVELAND | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
Last week the Bengals couldn't stop the potent ground game of the Browns. Washington has much better personnel along the defensive line and should not only be able to slow down the ground game but, most importantly, pressure Baker Mayfield. That is one area where the Bengals couldn't affect the game, which is one way the Washington Football Team can. The defense will keep this one very close.
6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
16-12 IN LAST 28 WAS ATS PICKS | +254
3-1 IN LAST 4 CLE ATS PICKS | +180
BALTIMORE -3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
This is a great matchup between the two best teams in the NFL. Where the Ravens have an advantage this year is along the line of scrimmage. The Chiefs' offensive line had its issues with the Chargers' pass rush, and the Ravens, with the addition of both Calais Campbell and Derek Wolfe, should be able to keep Patrick Mahomes and the passing game from gaining any traction. On the offensive front for Baltimore, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson already looks in midseason form.
6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
11-2 IN LAST 13 BAL ATS PICKS | +880
19-11 IN LAST 30 KC ATS PICKS | +708
TAMPA BAY -5.5
TAMPA BAY @ DENVER | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
The Broncos will start Jeff Driskel at quarterback over the injured Drew Lock. It will be unfortunate for Driskel that he can't throw to star WR Courtland Sutton, who also is lost for the year. We saw the Bucs offense start to find its rhythm against Carolina last week. Defensively, they've been much better than expected. Their defense will be the story after this week in Denver.
6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
7-4-1 IN LAST 12 TB ATS PICKS | +258
2-1 IN LAST 3 DEN ATS PICKS | +90
TENNESSEE -2.5
TENNESSEE @ MINNESOTA | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
Minnesota lost its star linebacker Anthony Barr for the season due to an injury and will be without two starting corners in Cameron Dantzler and Mike Hughes. Also, QB Kirk Cousins has been ineffective so far this season. So, facing a defense that'll struggle to stop the run and an offense that can't get out of its own way, the Titans should cover pretty easily.
6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
7-3 IN LAST 10 TEN ATS PICKS | +370
INDIANAPOLIS -11.5
N.Y. JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
The Jets enter this game banged up at receiver, running back and offensive line. The Colts have one of the better defensive units in the AFC and will look to take full advantage of a Jets offense that has been extremely ineffective the first two games of the season. Offensively for the Colts, expect another big day for rookie RB Jonathan Taylor.
6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
2-1 IN LAST 3 NYJ ATS PICKS | +96
L.A. RAMS +1
L.A. RAMS @ BUFFALO | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
FRI 9/25
This will be a great battle along the line of scrimmage. Right now the Rams are firing on all cylinders on offense, showing the versatility needed to thrive on a consistent basis. Where things can get tough for the Bills is that the Rams have two premier players on defense in DT Aaron Donald and CB Jalen Ramsey. Both can affect the game negatively for Josh Allen and the Bills offense.
6-3 IN LAST 9 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
17-10-2 IN LAST 29 LAR ATS PICKS | +588
Sunday, Sept 27th
4% New England (-5-) 1:00 PM ET
3% Buffalo (-2) 1:00 PM ET
3% Pittsburgh (-3-) 1:00 PM ET
3% Atlanta (-3) 1:00 PM ET
3% Arizona (-5-) 4:25 PM ET
NFL TOTALS:
Sunday, September 27th
4% OVER 47 Buffalo
3% OVER 45 Pittsburgh
3% OVER 44 Cleveland
3% OVER 43- LA Chargers
5% OVER 55 Arizona
4% OVER 55- Seattle
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