Sunday 9/27/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:40 AM

NFL odds Week 3: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will face a stern Monday night test at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The SuperBook installed Baltimore as a 3-point favorite.

NFL Week 2 is almost in the books, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups is a massive Monday nighter between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 3 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 3 odds

These are the current NFL Week 3 odds, as of September 20.

Dolphins at Jaguars odds

Opening line
Jaguars -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville is 1-1 SU, but cashed in in its first two games, losing to Tennessee 33-30 Sunday but covering as a 7-point road underdog. Miami is out of the gate 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, getting a last-minute touchdown Sunday to cover as a 5.5-point home 'dog in a 31-28 loss to the Bills.

So John Murray and his oddsmaking team at The SuperBook made the Jags modest 2-point favorites at home for the Thursday night tilt, and there was apparently a little early Jacksonville interest, as the line went to Jags -2.5.

Raiders at Patriots odds

Opening line
Patriots -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Patriots -6.5 and didn’t take much action on it before pulling it down when the Sunday night game kicked off," Murray said Sunday night. It's The SuperBook's standard practice to take a game down when a team is involved in the Sunday night conttest, as the Patriots were against the Seahawks.

"It's a short week for the Raiders and a tough traveling spot, with them going east in Week 1, then back here for the Monday Night Football game, and then back out to the East Coast for an early kickoff."

Rams at Bills odds

Opening line
Bills -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Bills are out of the gate 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS), but so are the Rams, who cashed in both games, including a 37-19 victory at Philadelphia on Sunday. Although the Rams are playing back east two consecutive weeks, the first move at The SuperBook was toward Los Angeles, from +3.5 to +3 Sunday night.

Texans at Steelers odds

Opening line
Steelers -6, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night, though Murray expressed some sympathy for Houston, with its tough early-season schedule. "I don’t know what the Texans did to deserve an opening three weeks of at Chiefs, home against Ravens and at Steelers."

49ers at Giants odds

Opening line
Giants +4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no move in this game Sunday night at The SuperBook, but Murray said setting the opening number was a little challenging, due to key injuries on both sides. There's concern that Giants running back Saquon Barkley may have torn an ACL in Sunday's loss to the Bears, so he could be lost for the season.

Likewise, 49ers star defensive end is also thought to have a torn ACL suffered in Sunday's win over the Jets. And San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a high ankle sprain, so his status for Week 3 is uncertain.

"Those guys (on the 49ers) are worth a couple points, and then Barkley is worth half-a-point to a point," Murray said, noting The SuperBook probably would've opened the Niners at -6 if not for the injury issues.

Titans at Vikings odds

Opening line
Vikings +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The SuperBook gave Tennessee the nod as short road chalk, but the first move was to the home 'dog Minnesota, as this line moved to Titans -2 Sunday night.

Washington at Browns odds

Opening line
Browns -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bengals at Eagles odds

Opening line
Eagles -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
With the opener of 5.5 a relatively dead number, it appears The SuperBook just wanted to see which way bettors would take it. And they took it toward the Eagles, as the line ticked up to -6 Sunday night.

Bears at Falcons odds

Opening line
Falcons -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This line saw no movement Sunday night, but many observers think the Atlanta sideline should see some movement this week – as in, coach Dan Quinn should be fired. The Falcons blew a 39-24 fourth-quarter lead at Dallas, including allowing an onside kick recovery that led to the Cowboys' game-winning field goal as time expired. That marked the only time Dallas led Sunday.

Jets at Colts odds

Opening line
Colts -9, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Indianapolis (1-1 SU and ATS) rolled over visiting Minnesota 28-11 laying 3.5 points Sunday, while New York fell to 0-2 SU and ATS in a 31-13 home loss to San Francisco. It seems like this number is high, but The SuperBook went a little higher still Sunday night, with the first move to Colts -9.5.

Panthers at Chargers odds

Opening line
Chargers -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
There was no line movement at The SuperBook on Sunday night, although Los Angeles was certainly impressive as it fell just short to Kansas City in overtime earlier in the day.

Lions at Cardinals odds

Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Another game that opens at 5.5 and quickly moves toward the favorite. Arizona is out to a 2-0 SU and ATS start, and early bettors were impressed enough to help move the line to -6.5 Sunday night.

Buccaneers at Broncos odds

Opening line
Broncos +5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
The Broncos could very well be without QB Drew Lock, who suffered a shoulder injury in Sunday's loss to Pittsburgh. So another game that opens 5.5 moved toward the favorite, in this case the visiting Buccaneers, who went to -6 Sunday night.

Cowboys at Seahawks odds

Opening line
Seahawks -4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Seahawks -4.5 and took some money on Dallas right away," Murray said, noting the game came off the board shortly thereafter, since the Seahawks were playing the Sunday nighter against the Patriots. "There should be good two-way action here. Gotta keep a close eye on the injury report for Dallas."

Packers at Saints odds

Opening line
Saints -3.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened Saints -3.5 and took some money both ways," Murray said of action on Sunday night. "The Packers look like they’re a lot better than we realized coming into the season, but we don’t want to overreact too much to their wins over the Vikings and Lions."

Chiefs at Ravens odds

Opening line
Ravens -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"These are pretty clearly the two best teams in the NFL, and this looks to be the game of the year, at least as far as the regular season is concerned," Murray said. "We have the Ravens as a slightly better team than the Chiefs and the home-field advantage bumps it to Baltimore as a 3-point favorite to open. There was no discussion on this line. Everyone in the room made it Baltimore -3. It looks like all the other books agreed."

And as of late Sunday night, there was no line movement, either.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:41 AM

Hot & Not Report - Week 3
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 3 Betting Angles

Two weeks of the season has already come and gone, and before you know it we will be at Halloween, eight weeks will have gone by and you'll still be doing preseason prep for the Pac-12.

Week 3 is one of my favorite weeks of the NFL season though because the first impressions and subsequent follow ups have already been seen, and perspectives on teams are starting to take some sort of shape. Two games worth of box scores begin to form more data, and yet every season the same things seem to hold true in Week 3 every year.

So it's into the archives for an updated version of a popular piece last year as there is no reason to change. It performed well once again. It's all about the spread record for Week 3 road teams and if they've got a goose egg in one column, you'll want to take it to crack.

Who's Hot

Week 3 road teams that are 0-2 ATS to start the year are 15-4 ATS in Week 3 the past four seasons, including 6-1 ATS a year ago

Brought this one up at the right time a season ago with a nice 6-1 ATS mark this week, and the 2020 season brings us another strong list of candidates. Some of these teams are even up against some perfect 2-0 ATS teams as well.

Who do you Follow?

Cowboys
Jets
Texans
Titans
Panthers
Lions

This means that plays on Dallas (+4.5) at Seattle, the NY Jets (+10.5) at Indianapolis, Houston (+4) at Pittsburgh, Tennessee (-2.5) at Minnesota, Carolina (+7.5) at LA Chargers, and Detroit (+5.5) at Arizona all should be considered for the card.

A couple of those lines still can have the look of ones that are a little too steeped in a two-week snap judgement and different weighing injuries can be. Carolina's going to be missing McCaffrey which is behind that number getting over a TD as part of the latter, and the Jets may not be as bad as they seem if you believe Buffalo's a contender this year and the catching an angry 49ers team who just happened to be 0-1 SU after losing the Super Bowl.

At the same time, as someone who has the Vikings to make the Super Bowl an 0-2 SU start in the fashion it's gone down for the Vikings has not gone over well, and I'm not quite ready to write them off yet either. Tennessee's managed to let two teams hang around when they probably shouldn't have too, and laying points on the road with a team you know has kicking issues never feels comfortable.

The cases for taking the points in five of those six games where it applies is something that won't take much work to have me on board, but there probably isn't much of a hurry to rush to grab these ugly dogs either. Carolina and the Jets are likely to get very little support overall, and I don't know how much market sentiment is left to make many want to back the Lions and Texans led by Matt Patricia and Bill O'Brien respectively.

Dallas is always going to be a public darling regardless, but up against Russell Wilson and his MVP chatter already making the rounds, that overwhelming Dallas money is probably going to be more balanced. That spread isn't likely to be moving too far either way.

But after seven games fit this role a season ago and it produced at that 85% clip, it was time to go right back to it and see how the six games that qualify this year end up treating the bankrolls.

Who's Not

Week 3 road teams that are 2-0 ATS are 4-9 ATS the past four years; 1-0 ATS in 2019

This is not going to have the large volume of plays that the other run does, as of the nine teams that are 2-0 ATS, the majority of them are at home in Week 3.

Who do you Fade?

Packers
Rams
Raiders

But this would imply that fading the Packers (+4.5) vs New Orleans and the Los Angeles Rams (+2.5/3) at Buffalo should be other options to be considered, as should looking to go against the Raiders (+6) at New England after they defeated the Saints on Monday Night Football.

Monday's impressive win by the Raiders over the Saints in their Las Vegas home opener could open up the flood gates for plenty of generic Green Bay love as a downgrade on the Saints more then anything, but I'm sure the Raiders may come off that +6 number as well.

The loss for the Saints likely still brings plenty of Packers love, but Patriots backers are probably going to want to look to get that play down sooner rather then later with New England looking just fine through two games of the Cam Newton era.

Finally, playing against the Rams means you are playing on a strong Bills team that's remained undefeated and kept the backdoor open too long for the Dolphins to get the late ATS cover on Sunday. There are worse options every week then having a ticket that's got the Bills at home on it though.

However, it would only be backing the two AFC East teams of these three games that I think I'd end up putting on the card, as even with Packers love expected, I'm still not sure the Saints aren't being valued much higher than they should be.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:41 AM

Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Sunday, Sept. 27

L.A. RAMS at BUFFALO (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Rams now 10-2 vs. spread their last 12 as visitor since late in 2018 campaign, and they have won and covered seven straight in early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone (or London).
Bills 4-6 last ten as Orchard Park chalk.

Tech edge: Rams, based on team trends.

LAS VEGAS at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Raiders have now covered last 3 and 6 of last 9 as visitor after opening win at Carolina.
Raiders had closed 2019 “under” 6 of last 7 before “overs” vs. Panthers and Saints.
Into last Sunday night at Seattle, Belichick “under” 21-12 last 33 reg.-season games, also 21-10 as Gillette Stadium reg.-season chalk since 2016.

Tech edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends.

HOUSTON at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Texans now no covers last 4 as dog after covering 8 of previous 11 in role.
Steel now on 14-5 and 16-6 “under” runs after opener vs. G-Men, and 9-6 vs. spread last 15 at Heinz Field (much of that minus Big Ben LY).

Tech edge: Steelers and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at N.Y. GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

G-Men now no covers last 7 as MetLife dog after opener vs. Steel.
Niners 7-2 vs. spread as visitor since 2019.

Tech edge: Niners, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Titans entered 2020 on 9-4 spread uptick but have failed to cover first two in 2020.
Vikes “over” 9-4 last 13 reg.-season games.

Tech edge: “Over” and Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Browns 0-2 vs. line for Stefanski after non-cover vs. Cincy, and Cleveland now 5-12-1 vs. line since 2019.

Tech edge: Football Team, based on Browns negatives.

CINCINNATI at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Cincy now 5-3 as visiting dog since LY (not counting Rams in London) for Taylor and also on 5-1 “over” run.
Birds 5-14 vs. line last 18 at Linc, 4-10 last 13 as home chalk.
Philly was “under” last 7 at home in 2019 before “over” vs. Rams.

Tech edge: Bengals, based on team trends.

CHICAGO at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

Bears rallied for win in opener but no cover vs. G-Men last week and now 5-14 last 19 on board.
Chicago 1-4 as dog in 2019 but got the W in role in opener vs. Lions.
Falcs closed 2019 on 6-2 SU and spread rush.
Falcs dropped first two SU in 2020 (though did cover at Dallas).

Tech edge: slight to Falcons, based on recent trends.

N.Y. JETS at INDIANAPOLIS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Jets only 3-7 vs. line last ten away (3-6 for Gase) after loss at Buffalo in opener.
NY did cover 5 of last 6 as dog in 2019 before loss vs. Bills, and also no cover as dog last week vs. Niners.
Philip Rivers 5-14 vs. line with Chargers and Colts since late 2018.

Tech edge: Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

CAROLINA at L.A. CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Bolts now in new stadium but were 1-8 vs. line their last nine at Carson from late 2018 thru 2019, all prior to cover vs. KC last week.
Bolts also “under” 6-1 last 7 as host since 2019, and were 2-8 LY as chalk, though did squeeze narrowest of covers in Cincy opener.
Panthers on 1-8-1 spread skid after opening losses vs. Raiders and Bucs, though also “over” 14-5 after first two in 2020.

Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Panthers, based on “totals” trends and extended Chargers home negatives.

DETROIT at ARIZONA (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Kingsbury now 12-5-1 vs. line with Cards after 2-0 start in 2020.
Note Cards only 0-1 as chalk in 2019, but handled role vs. Football team last week.
Lions on 6-12 spread skid since LY, and “over” 12-6 since 2019 after extended “under” run prior.

Tech edge: Cards and ”Over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

TAMPA BAY at DENVER (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Broncos 10-4 last 14 vs. points since early 2019 (covered first two in 2020 even though 0-2 SU), and now “under” 19-8 since mid-2018 (Fangio 10-8 “under” since LY).
If Denver a dog here note Fangio 7-2 last 9 in role. Bruce Arians only 6-11-1 vs. line with Bucs, and his teams “over” 29-12 last 41 with Cards & Bucs.

Tech edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

DALLAS at SEATTLE (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Dallas only 8-10 vs. line its last 18 as visitor, though Cowboys 6-1 last 7 as reg.-season dog.
Hawks entered 2020 just 2-7 vs. line last 9 as Seattle chalk.

Tech edge: Cowboys, based on team trends.

GREEN BAY at NEW ORLEANS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

Saints got money vs. Bucs in opener, though they were only 3-9 previous 12 as Superdome chalk.
Pack 3-0 as dog vs. teams other than 49ers last year.

Tech edge: Packers, based on team trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:41 AM

461LAS VEGAS -462 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 46-23 ATS (20.7 Units) after allowing >=30 pts. since 1992.

463LA RAMS -464 BUFFALO
LA RAMS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the last 2 seasons.

465HOUSTON -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 27-10 ATS (16 Units) in home games after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.

467SAN FRANCISCO -468 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games as a dog in the last 2 seasons.

469TENNESSEE -470 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (16.2 Units) at home when the total is 45.5-49 since 1992.

471WASHINGTON -472 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in home games after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.

473CINCINNATI -474 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after a loss in the last 3 seasons.

475CHICAGO -476 ATLANTA
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after playing a game at home in the last 2 seasons.

477NY JETS -478 INDIANAPOLIS
NY JETS are 15-30 ATS (-18 Units) in road games after allowing >=30 pts. since 1992.

479CAROLINA -480 LA CHARGERS
CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight overs in the last 3 seasons.

481DETROIT -482 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) at home when the total >=49.5 since 1992.

483TAMPA BAY -484 DENVER
TAMPA BAY is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

485DALLAS -486 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 3 seasons.

487GREEN BAY -488 NEW ORLEANS
GREEN BAY is 19-8 ATS (10.2 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:42 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Sunday, September 27

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LAS VEGAS (1 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 271-209 ATS (+41.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 271-209 ATS (+41.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 208-153 ATS (+39.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-154 ATS (+29.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-91 ATS (+30.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LA RAMS (2 - 0) at BUFFALO (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LA RAMS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (0 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 110-81 ATS (+20.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 1) at NY GIANTS (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (2 - 0) at MINNESOTA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-31 ATS (+20.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (1 - 1) at CLEVELAND (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 68-98 ATS (-39.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (0 - 2) at PHILADELPHIA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-28 ATS (-17.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (2 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 7-23 ATS (-18.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 54-82 ATS (-36.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (0 - 2) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 1) - 9/27/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS are 51-29 ATS (+19.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (0 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 26-45 ATS (-23.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 148-187 ATS (-57.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-21 ATS (-16.1 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
ARIZONA is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) at DENVER (0 - 2) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (1 - 1) at SEATTLE (2 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (2 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) - 9/27/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:43 AM

NFL

Week 3

Trend Report

Sunday, September 27

Tennessee @ Minnesota
Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tennessee

Las Vegas @ New England
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 8 games
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
New England is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home

Chicago @ Atlanta
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chicago's last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Chicago

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

San Francisco @ NY Giants
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco

Houston @ Pittsburgh
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games

Washington @ Cleveland
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

LA Rams @ Buffalo
LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing Buffalo
LA Rams is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams

Carolina @ LA Chargers
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games
Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games when playing Carolina

NY Jets @ Indianapolis
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 9 games when playing NY Jets

Detroit @ Arizona
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit's last 16 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
Arizona is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit
Arizona is 8-1-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Detroit

Dallas @ Seattle
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

Tampa Bay @ Denver
Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games
Denver
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Green Bay @ New Orleans
Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Green Bay

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:43 AM

NFL betting tips for Week 3: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Buffalo Bills' invigorated passing game is currently the top-ranked aerial attack in the NFL. Their Week 3 total against the Rams is at 46.5 — but it could keep climbing as the week goes on.

Week 3 is a dangerous week for NFL betting. You have just enough information to lure you into a false sense of security.

This year, the NFL Week 3 odds are even slipperier to wrangle thanks to no preseason to measure against as well as league-wide injuries befalling many teams and their key contributors this past Sunday. But in the face of all this, the ultimate NFL betting strategy remains: get the best number for your NFL picks.

We give the top NFL betting tips with our Week 3 lines to bet now and bet later.

Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5): Bet now

The Chargers opened -6 against the Panthers, coming off a tough overtime loss to Kansas City in Week 2. The Bolts played extremely well, considering rookie quarterback Justin Herbert was thrust into action due to Tyrod Taylor suffering pregame chest pains.

Los Angeles’ defense was excellent, holding the Chiefs to 23 points and forcing three long field goals from an offense that usually has zero trouble finding the end zone. Offensively, the Chargers had a great balance between run and pass and now take on a poor Panthers defense.

Carolina is crossing the country after allowing 31 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, on the heels of 34 points from the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1. And while the Panthers’ defense – or lack thereof – is enough to like L.A., the fact Carolina star RB Christian McCaffrey will miss time with an ankle injury is a cherry on top of the sundae for Chargers fans. Get the Bolts below the touchdown now.

Kansas City Chiefs (+3) vs Baltimore Ravens: Bet Later

Oh my gawd, this is going to awesome. The Chiefs and Ravens GET IT ON this coming Monday night and the early odds have the defending Super Bowl champs as field goal pups on the road in Week 3. While this spread hasn’t come off the key number, books are adjusting their juice on the Ravens -3 to -115 while discounting K.C. in an attempt to stir up some Chiefs action.

Kansas City barely escaped Week 2 with a win, needing some long-range field goal kicking to edge the Chargers in overtime. Now, Patrick Mahomes & Co. hit the road for a second straight game, this time taking on a Baltimore squad that looks scary good through two weeks.

If you’re not sold on the Chiefs here, I don’t blame you. The Ravens crushed Cleveland in Week 1 and broke Houston on its home turf, covering both spreads at -7 and -7.5 respectively. However, if you do like Kansas City, wait it out and see if the half-point hooks show its face. And when it does, get ready to pounce because it won’t be there long.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Denver Broncos (Under 43.5): Bet Now

As much as the media wants to pile the praise on Tom Brady for the Buccaneers’ Week 2 win over Carolina, it was the Tampa Bay running backs that did the damage. The Bucs blasted the Panthers defense for 122 yards and three scores on the ground.

Tampa Bay takes to the road in Week 3, traveling up the mountain to play the Denver Broncos. Denver will be without starting QB Drew Lock for the next few games, but it did see some life from backup Jeff Driskel against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I don’t buy into that continuing.

The Broncos are pretty beaten up on offense, with RB Phillip Lindsay out and WR Courtland Sutton ruled out for the season on Monday. Denver’s defense is a bit of a mess too, but it always seems to put up a fight at home, going 4-12 Over/Under in the team’s last 16 home games.

I expect another run-focused playbook from the Bucs, which should kill clock and keep scoring low. Tampa Bay’s dangerous defense will also feast on the broken Broncos. If you like the Under, you’ll want to move on this now before it starts dropping.

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills (Under 46.5): Bet Later

This total is on the rise, opening as low as 45 points and jumping to 46.5 as of Monday morning. And why not? The top-ranked passing game in the NFL is on the field.

That’s right. The Bills’ offseason addition of WR Stefon Diggs has been just what Josh Allen needed to flex his cannon arm, with Buffalo averaging 29 points through the opening two games of 2020 – fueled by the throw.

The Rams dragged their feet on offense in the Week 1 opener versus Dallas but found their footing in a 37-19 win at Philadelphia on Sunday. But let’s not discount the defenses on either side of this matchup — or the circumstances facing L.A.

Buffalo and Los Angeles have a surplus of playmakers on defense as well as potent pass rushes that can disrupt even the most high-powered attack. On top of that, the Rams are racking up the frequent-flyer miles, having to fly to Philly for Week 2, then fly back to L.A., and then fly to Buffalo on Saturday, due to COVID restrictions. If you’re eyeing the Under, wait it out and see if this total keeps climbing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:54 AM

NFL Week 3 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

The 49ers are more of an orthopedics clinic than a football team this week. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, among many others, is out, moving San Fran's spread from -6 to -4, and back to -4.5 Monday.

NFL Week 2 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes a flood of key injuries that will impact spreads and totals, particularly in the San Francisco 49ers-New York Giants clash.

This week’s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for all that information and more.

Week 2 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Star defensive end Nick Bosa tore an ACL and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s road win against the Jets. Bosa is done for the year, while Garoppolo might be able to play in Week 3 at the New York Giants. “Those guys are worth a couple of points,” said John Murray, executive director of The SuperBook at Westgate.

Murray said The SuperBook had the Niners -6 against the Giants before those two injuries, among others. Running back Raheem Mostert (knee) was already ruled out for Week 3, and wideout Tevin Coleman has a knee sprain. Oh, and defensive end Solomon Thomas also has a season-ending ACL tear.

“They’re very banged up,” Murray said, noting The SuperBook opened the 49ers -4 and moved to -4.5 Monday.

New York Giants: Saquon Barkley also suffered a torn ACL Sunday in a road loss to the Bears, so he’s done for the year. “Barkley is worth a half-point to a point,” Murray said. The Giants are 4.5-point underdogs to the visiting 49ers. It’s also worth noting the 49ers-Giants total opened at just 41.5, quickly dropped to 40.5, then went to 41 Monday afternoon.

Denver Broncos: QB Drew Lock separated his right (throwing) shoulder in a loss at Pittsburgh, and he’ll miss two to six weeks, while star wideout Courtland Sutton is done for the year with a torn ACL. On the look-ahead line last week, The SuperBook had the Broncos 3.5-point Week 3 home ‘dogs to Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. The line opened Sunday night with Denver as 5.5-point pups and stretched to +6.5, then went to +6.

Carolina Panthers: Stud running back Christian McCaffrey was another Week 2 victim of a high ankle sprain and could miss several weeks. So he’s certainly not playing Sunday as the Panthers make the cross-country trip to face a Los Angeles Chargers team that just took the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime. Carolina is a 7-point underdog at The SuperBook.

Los Angeles Chargers: QB Tyrod Taylor was a late scratch Sunday against the Chiefs with complications from a rib injury. Coach Anthony Lynn said Monday that Taylor would start this week if he’s 100 percent, but complicating matters a bit is that rookie Justin Herbert played reasonably well in a 23-20 overtime loss to Super Bowl champion Kansas City. But with the Panthers minus McCaffrey, the Chargers are still 7-point favorites this week.

Week 2 Weather

Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns: As of Monday, there’s a 50 percent chance of rain Sunday in Cleveland, with south/southwest winds of 10-20 mph. The SuperBook opened the total at 44.5 and ticked down to 44 Monday.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers: Pittsburgh is looking at a 50 percent chance of rain, as well. The total opened at 45 early Monday morning and over the next couple of hours went to 44.5, then back to 45.

Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles: The early forecast calls for morning rain in Philly, with intermittent showers in the afternoon Sunday. The total hasn’t moved off 46.5.

Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills: As of Monday, there’s a 60 percent chance of afternoon thundershowers, with south/southwest winds at 15-25 mph. But the total in this game is already up to 48, after opening 46.5 at The SuperBook.

San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants: The early forecast calls for occasional showers Sunday, with a 50 percent chance of rain. The total went from 41.5 to 40.5, then 41, but that likely has much more to do with both teams’ injuries, as noted above.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:55 AM

Close Calls - Week 2
Joe Nelson

Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games.

Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread and total in the fourth quarter in Week 2 of the NFL regular season.

Cleveland Browns (-5½) 35, Cincinnati Bengals 30 (44½)

A 24-point second quarter put the Thursday night game on a clear ‘over’ pace but the Browns were barely past the favorite spread with an eight-point edge at halftime.

Cincinnati seemed to a get huge swing of momentum stuffing the Browns on 4th-and-goal on the opening drive of the 2nd half but rookie QB Joe Burrow would fumble on a sack a few plays later, handing the Browns another red zone chance and this time Cleveland delivered.

Cincinnati would add a field goal to trail by 12 and the defense again delivered with an interception when it looked like Cleveland would add points. Burrow led a 14-play drive to put the Bengals within five with just under six minutes remaining. The underdog cover position was short-lived however as it took Cleveland just two minutes to answer, effectively putting the game away up by 12 at the 3:55 mark.

Burrow impressed on another long drive that included two 4th down conversions, eventually connecting for a touchdown inside the final minute on a 3rd-and-long play to take back the spread result for the underdog.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) 31, Carolina Panthers 17 (47)

The 0-2 Panthers are proving to have a lot of fourth quarter life losing in Week 1 in a back-and-forth final frame and also rallying vs. Tampa Bay after falling behind 21-0. Christian McCaffrey added two touchdowns before getting hurt to cut the score to 21-14 early in the fourth. The Panthers got the ball right back but Teddy Bridgewater had an interception across midfield.

Tampa Bay only added three points off the turnover however and Carolina cut the margin back to seven just after the two-minute warning with its own field goal, which was enough to sit within the underdog spread. The onside kick attempt failed and Leonard Fournette rushed for 46 yards and a score on 1st down, putting the Buccaneers up by 14 and clearing the closing total that opened as high as 48½ before sliding to 47.

Those laying the points with the Buccaneers didn’t have an easy viewing the rest of the way as Bridgewater had quick completions of 22 and 14 yards to cross midfield with still more than a minute to go. Carolina eventually reached the Tampa Bay 18 and the game’s final play didn’t quite get there with a 14-yard gain stopped around the 4-yard-line to keep the Panthers from stealing the cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-6½) 26, Denver Broncos 21 (40½)

The Steelers led 17-3 at halftime and Denver was down to Jeff Driskel at quarterback. The Broncos added 11 points in the third quarter and to stay in the game but the Steelers had a strong start to the fourth, completing a touchdown drive and getting a safety to lead by 12 with about 10 minutes to go. Getting the ball back after the safety, Pittsburgh fumbled on first down however and the Broncos delivered with a Melvin Gordon touchdown about halfway through the final quarter.

Down by five, Denver’s defense held for a quick punt and Driskel appeared poised to deliver a game-winning drive for the Broncos, getting a big completion to the Pittsburgh 23-yard-line that withstood a replay challenge. Facing 4th-and-2 Driskel was sacked to thwart the upset and those on the favorite had a fleeting opportunity for a late cover with James Conner breaking a 59-yard rush to the Denver 10.

Denver only had two timeouts remaining and the Steelers were able to run out the clock, eventually taking a knee at the 6-yard-line.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) 40, Atlanta Falcons 39 (53½)

The fourth quarter didn’t change the spread or total results in this NFC clash but it is worth reminding everyone that the same team that recently lost the Super Bowl with a 28-3 lead was leading 39-24 with five minutes to go in a NFL game and lost.

Those taking Atlanta plus the points watched in horror after the incredible onside kick recovery as the prospect of a Dallas win and cover was back in play as Dallas had a healthy 1:49 to work with down two. After the big 2nd down gain the Cowboys played for the field goal and successfully pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history.

Buffalo Bills (-5½) 31, Miami Dolphins 28 (42)

Buffalo jumped out to a 17-7 lead but Miami took control in the middle of the game, delivering 13 consecutive points on three scoring drives, each of fewer than 50 yards, to take a 20-17 lead with about 10 minutes remaining.

Over two drives surrounding a punt Josh Allen needed only 12 combined plays for two touchdown drives of more than 70 yards as the Bulls were up by 11 with just three minutes remaining.

Miami didn’t even face a 3rd down against a relaxed defense and connected in the final minute to spoil the spread result, getting the two-point conversion for good measure in the three-point final result.

Chicago Bears (-5) 17, New York Giants 13 (42½)

After needing a big comeback in Week 1 the Bears took a 17-0 lead over the Giants at halftime. Even with significant injuries for New York, the Bears weren’t able to coast for a win as four second half drives ended in a pair of interceptions, a punt, and a missed field goal.

New York was down 17-10 before Mitchell Trubisky’s second interception set the Giants up in decent field position. With about 10 minutes remaining Chicago almost put the game away with a pick-6 but it was called back for pass interference. The Giants would stall at the Chicago 19 and kicked a field goal with still more than seven minutes remaining to trail by four.

Chicago had a chance to push the margin back to seven points to go back in position to cover but Cairo Santos missed the field goal try. New York had a great opportunity to steal the win, converting two fourth downs along the way but eventually ended the game on the 10-yard-line as the Bears moved to 2-0 with a second straight narrow escape.

Tennessee Titans (-7½) 33, Jacksonville Jaguars 30 (44½)

The Jaguars trailed 30-17 through three quarters but completed a 75-yard drive early in the fourth and forced a quick three-and-out. Jacksonville went 86 yards to tie the game halfway through the final frame with another big performance from Gardner Minshew.

A pair of punts followed, and getting the ball back in good field position with just over three minutes to go the Titans were able to add three points to go in front, aided greatly with a big 3rd down conversion via penalty.

Minshew was intercepted on a short pass on a 2nd-and-1 play in the final minute as the Titans held on but Jacksonville did enough for a second straight underdog win to start the season.

Seattle Seahawks (-4) 35, New England Patriots 30 (45)

The Patriots opened the game with an early "Pick-6 Touchdown" but Russell Wilson rebounded nicely ultimately posting five touchdown passes even though the Seahawks only twice entered the red zone in the game.

Seattle pulled away in the third quarter with back-to-back scores around a Cam Newton interception to lead by 11 but the Patriots answered early in the fourth quarter.

Down five, New England went for two and came up short in a key play relative to the spread outcome. With just over four minutes remaining Seattle seemed to put the game away with a big 3rd down conversion and two plays later a touchdown to lead by 12.

The Patriots answered quickly however and were able to get the ball back after the Seahawks tried to throw deep on 3rd-and-1. The Patriots put together a great final drive but opted not to call their final timeout after a connection to the Seattle 13-yard-line, leaving only 12 seconds on the clock by the time they got the ball snapped.

After Julian Edelman couldn’t haul in a throw to the end zone, the Patriots reached the 1-yard-line on the next play and used the final timeout setting up the expected final play. Newton’s charge to the goal line was blown up as Seattle came away with the win and narrow cover in another entertaining edition between these teams and Hall of Fame coaches.

Las Vegas Raiders (+4) 34, New Orleans Saints 24 (48)

The line on the Monday night game shot downward Monday afternoon but the Saints opened up a 10-0 lead looking to move to 2-0 again considered by many a top NFC contender. Opening its new stadium in Las Vegas, the Raiders rallied for a tie score by halftime and took the lead early in the 3rd quarter.

The Saints punted on their first two possessions of the second half while the Raiders lost a fumble to keep the scoring at 41 well into the fourth quarter as the only drama that remained was on the total. The Saints would find the end zone with about four minutes remaining to trail by seven and the scoring hit 48, the closing total but with most sitting with tickets slightly above that with the number gradually sliding from an opening price of 50½.

A pass interference penalty converted a big 3rd down for the Raiders just ahead of the two-minute warning and the Raiders would face a decision up by seven with just over a minute to go on 4th-and-long. They opted for a risky 54-yard field goal attempt and Daniel Carlson delivered to seal the upset, as well as hitting ‘over’ too.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:55 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Sunday September 27

Washington @ Cleveland

Game 471-472
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
123.31
Cleveland
124.677
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1 1/2
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+7); Under

Las Vegas @ New England

Game 461-462
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
124.829
New England
139.182
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 14 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6); Over

Houston @ Pittsburgh

Game 465-466
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
131.460
Pittsburgh
130.610
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 4
45
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+4); Under

Tennessee @ Minnesota

Game 469-470
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
138.648
Minnesota
126.911
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 11 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Over

Chicago @ Atlanta

Game 475-476
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
130.642
Atlanta
131.285
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
48
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+4); Under

Cincinnati @ Philadelphia

Game 473-474
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
118.375
Philadelphia
129.336
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 11
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 5 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-5 1/2); Over

LA Rams @ Buffalo

Game 463-464
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
131.708
Buffalo
137.786
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Buffalo
by 2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(-2); Over

San Francisco @ NY Giants

Game 467-468
September 27, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
131.669
NY Giants
130.537
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Francisco
by 4
41
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+4); Under

NY Jets @ Indianapolis

Game 477-478
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
122.554
Indianapolis
135.372
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indianapolis
by 13
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 10 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(-10 1/2); Over

Carolina @ LA Chargers

Game 479-480
September 27, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
123.091
LA Chargers
124.456
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 1 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
44
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+7); Under

Tampa Bay @ Denver

Game 483-484
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
137.520
Denver
125.458
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 12
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 6
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-6); Over

Dallas @ Seattle

Game 485-486
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
134.739
Seattle
136.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 2
53
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 5
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Dallas
(+5); Under

Detroit @ Arizona

Game 481-482
September 27, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
122.855
Arizona
135.718
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 13
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 5 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-5 1/2): Over

Green Bay @ New Orleans

Game 487-488
September 27, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.388
New Orleans
133.858
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 3 1/2
61
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3
51 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-24-2020, 09:56 AM

NFL

Week 3

— Jaguars scored 57 points in splitting their first two games; they’re scored 7 TD’s on 17 drives.
— J’ville has converted 15-24 3rd down plays this season.
— Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-9 ATS as a home favorite.

— Jaguars are 5-4 in this series, winning last two meetings, 23-20/17-7.
— Dolphins won three of last four visits to Jacksonville.

Raiders (2-0) @ New England (1-1)
— Long travel, short week for Las Vegas, after their Monday night win.
— Raiders scored 34-34 points in winning their first two games; they scored exactly 17 points in all four halves this season.
— Last three years, Raiders are 9-14 ATS as a road underdog.

— Since 2013, Patriots are 16-8 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 4+ years, New England is 25-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
—Patriots converted 12 of first 22 third down plays.

— Patriots won last five series games, four of them by 10+ points.
— Raiders lost last three visits here, by 3-7-10 points.
— Silver/Black’s last win in Foxboro was in 1994.

Rams (2-0) @ Buffalo (2-0)
— Rams won first two games, running ball for 153-191 yards, converting 16-29 on 3rd down.
— LA is 6-2 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog.
— Rams have allowed four TD’s so far, but none in 2nd half; they outscored first two foes 23-6 after halftime.

— Bills won first two games, scoring 27-31 points, gaining 928 yards.
— Newly acquired WR Diggs caught 16 balls for 239 yards in the two games.
— Buffalo is 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Home side lost five of last six series games.
— Buffalo won six of last eight series games.
— Rams split their six visits to Orchard Park.

Texans (0-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-0)
— Texans lost their first two games, giving up 34-33 points.
—Houston converted only 7-19 3rd down plays so far.
— Texans are 7-5-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

— Steelers won their first two games, scoring 26-26 points.
— Pitt opponents have been in Steeler red zone 7 times, but scored only 22 points.
— Last 3+ years, Pittsburgh is 9-12 ATS as a home favorite.

— Steelers won four of six series games, with three wins by 20+ points.
— Houston lost two of three visits here; the lone win was in 2002.

49ers (1-1) @ NJ Giants (0-2)
— 49ers beat Jets 31-13 on this same field last week; they’re spending this week practicing in West Virginia.
— Last 5+ years, 49ers are 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— 49ers have had numerous injuries; QB Garoppolo i(ankle) is expected to play here.
— NFC West teams are 6-0 ATS outside their division this year.

— Giants lost their first two games, by 10-4 points.
— RB Barkley (knee) is out for year; Giants have been outrushed 276-104.
— Big Blue is 1-11 ATS in last dozen games as a home underdog.

— Teams split last four series games.
— 49ers lost three of last four road games in this series- they

Titans (2-0) @ Minnesota (0-2)
— Tennessee won its first two games, by total of five points.
— Titans have scored 44 points in seven trips to the red zone.
— Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 4-3 ATS as a road favorite.

— Vikings lost their first two games, allowing 43-28 points- they were outscored 37-13 in first half of those games.
— Minnesota lost field position by 14-15 yards; they’re minus-3 in turnovers.
— Last four years, Vikings are 4-1 ATS as a home underdog.

— Vikings won six of last seven series games.
— Titans are 1-6 in Minnesota, with lone win in 1992; they were outscored 92-34 in last three visits here.
— Tennessee’s lone win in the Twin Cities was in 1992.

Washington (1-1) @ Cleveland (1-1)
— Washington trailed 17-0/20-0 in their two games.
— Redskins converted only 9-30 third down plays.
— Last 4+ years, Washington is 15-11 ATS as a road underdog.

— Browns split their first two games, allowing 38-30 points (8 TD’s/19 drives).
— Cleveland has been outscored 31-14 in 2nd halves of games.
— Browns are 4-5-1 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.

— Redskins won last three series games, by 3-17-11 points.
— Teams split two games played here; last one was in 2012.

Bengals (0-2) @ Philadelphia (0-2)
— Bengals lost their first two games, by 3-5 points.
— Cincy allowed 370 rushing yards in their first two games.
— Last 3+ years, Bengals are 15-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Eagles lost their first two games, were outscored 36-3 in 2nd half.
— Philly turned ball over over three times in both games, is -5 in turnovers.
— Eagles are 4-10-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite.

— Bengals are 3-0-1 in last four series games, with all three wins by 18+ points.
— Cincy is 5-3 in its visits to Philadelphia.

Bears (2-0) @ Atlanta (0-2)
— Chicago won its first two games, by four points each.
— Bears ran ball for 149-135 yards in their first two games.
— Chicago is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 games as a home favorite.

— Falcons lost 40-39 in Dallas LW, blowing 29-10 halftime lead.
— Atlanta allowed 38-40 points in first two games (10 TD’s/23 drives).
— Falcons are 5-7 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

— Chicago is 5-3 in last eight series games; they won three of last five visits here.

Jets (0-2) @ Indianapolis (1-1)
— Jets lost their first two games, by 10-18 points- they trailed both games 21-3 at half.
— Gang Green was outgained by 232 yards in their first two games.
— Jets are 8-17-1 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog.

— Colts split their first two games, despite outgaining opponents 799-416.
— Indy has struggled in red zone, scoring 34 points in nine drives inside 20.
— Colts are 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Jets won four of last five series games, winning three of last four visits here.

Panthers (0-2) @ LA Chargers (1-1)
— Carolina lost its first two games, giving up 34-31 points.
— Panthers lost field position in first two games, by 7-11 yards.
— Carolina is 3-5 ATS in its last eight games as a road underdog.

— Unsure who starts at QB here for Chargers, Taylor/Herbert.
— LA split its first two games, losing in OT to rival Chiefs last week.
— Chargers are 3-9 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.

— Carolina won five of six series games, with lone loss in 2009.
— Panthers are 3-0 against the Chargers in California.

Lions (0-2) @ Arizona (2-0)
— Detroit lost its first two games, allowing 27-42 points.
— Lions have been outscored 46-17 in 2nd half of games.
— Detroit is 2-5 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog.

— Cardinals won their first two games, running ball for 180-160 yards.
— Arizona has 20 penalties for 204 yards in two games; that’s a lot.
— Last 5+ years, Cardinals are 8-14 ATS as a home favorite.

— Detroit is 2-0-1 in last three series games; they blew a big lead in LY’s 27-27 tie, when both teams kicked a FG in overtime.
— Lions are 1-8-1 in last ten visits to Arizona, 1-0-1 in last two.

Buccaneers (1-1) @ Denver (0-2)
— Tampa Bay split its first two games, scoring 23-31 points.
— Buccaneers are 6-3-3 ATS in last 12 gamest AFC teams.
— Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— Denver lost its first two games, by 2-5 points.
— QB Lock is out for two weeks; backup Driskel gets the start; he was 1-7 as a starter for the Bengals/Lions the last couple years.
— Denver is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.
— AFC West teams are 5-0-1 ATS outside their division.

— Denver won seven of last nine series games, winning last four.
— Bucs lost four of five visits here, with line win in 1993.

Cowboys (1-1) @ Seattle (2-0)
— Dallas split its first two games, which were decided by total of 4 points.
— Cowboys trailed 20-0 LW; they were -3 in turnovers, lost field position by 17 yards, but they won, recovering an onside kick when they looked like a lost cause.
— Last four years, Dallas is 7-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.

— Seahawks won their first two games, scoring 38-35 points (10 TD’s/20 drives).
— Seattle has run 118 plays; only 16 of them have been on third down.
— Seahawks are 7-12-1 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite.

— Seattle won three of last four series games, with loss 24-22 in ’18 playoffs.
— Cowboys lost four of last five visits to Seattle.

Packers (2-0) @ New Orleans (1-1)
— Green Bay won its first two games, scoring 43-42 points (9 TD’s/18 drives)
— Packers ran ball for 417 yards, threw for 593 so far- decent balance.
— Green Bay is 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Short week for Saints, who lost in Las Vegas Monday night.
— New Orleans converted 12-26 on 3rd down; both their games went over.
— Saints are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.

— Home side won six of last eight series games; Packers lost their last three road games against the Saints, by 15-22-21 points.
— Green Bay won Super Bowl XXXI here, in 1998; their last win against the Saints here was back in 1995.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2020, 06:28 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 9/27/20

September 27, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 6-Spanish Count; 7-Gregdar

Keys to the Race: (view video)

Forecast: Gregdar was nosed out in his only outing in 2019 – a productive maiden $25,000 sprint at Golden Gate Fields 11 months ago – and returns in a below standard maiden $50,000 sprint that should be within his capabilities. The work tab that includes a bullet half mile drill (:48 flat, fastest of 24) earlier this month for new trainer P. D’Amato should have him fit and ready, and the presence of U. Rispoli in the saddle indicates that the Greydar colt is well-meant off the layoff. At 5/2 on the morning line we like him on top but we’ll also include Spanish Count, shortening up to a sprint for the first time. The R. Baltas-trained gelding adds blinkers, retains A. Cedillo, and can be expected to produce a forward move in his second start off a layoff and just his third career start overall.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:01 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Flash Magic

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Flash Magic had the misfortune of hooking North America’s best 2-year-old filly, stable mate Princess Noor, in her debut at Del Mar last month but displayed extreme promise even in defeat when a game runner-up while almost five lengths clear of the rest in a fast, highly-rated affair. She returns with blinkers on while switching to L. Saez and looks every bit the 4/5 that she’s listed on the morning line. The daughter of Pioneerof the Nile won’t be offering any wagering value in this five runner affair but can be used as a short-price rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Conquest Cobra; 7-El Huerfano

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Old pro El Huerfano has been popular at the claim box of late and is back in M. Glatt’s barn after being haltered for $12,500 in early August at Del Mar. The eight-year-old gelding is double jumped in class in this main track miler in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence, and with five career wins over the local main track he appears perked up for a major effort following a bullet three furlong drill (:36 1/5, fastest of 21) earlier this month. F. Prat stays aboard and should have him in a comfortable pace-stalking position outside throughout. Conquest Cobra might be worth including on your ticket as well. Always most effective when on or near the lead, the V. Belvoir-trained gelding returns to dirt (his preferred surface) and should get the aggressive ride he needs from L. Saez. First or second in nine of 19 career starts over the Santa Anita dirt surface, he’s a fit on recent numbers and more than capable of winning at this level when he’s on his game.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Fighting Mad

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Fighting Mad is listed at 2/5 on the morning line in this four-runner edition of the Zenyatta S.-G2, a race that serves as the final West Coast prep to the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 at Keeneland next month. She’s the controlling speed from the rail, and anything close to her best race will be more than sufficient for this B. Baffert-trained daughter of New Year’s Day to maintain her winning form. She’s a logical, no-value, rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:39 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Cal Caliente; 5-Fly to Mars; 7-Three Ay Em

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Cali Caliente is a progressive gelding making just his sixth career start, and after dismantling a first-level state-bred allowance field with a career top speed figure at Del Mar earlier this month the son of Unusual Heat appears capable of continuing his winning ways today when facing open company. The E. Kruljac-trained 4-year-old employs an effective stalking style that can adjust to any type of race flow, and with J. J. Hernandez staying aboard we’re expecting a repeat score at or near his morning line of 7/2. Fly to Mars clearly is the proven class of the field – he’s a stakes winner and has placed in multiple graded events – but the P. Miller-trained gelding has had just one start in nearly two years and today shows up for a $40,000 tag in what has to be considered a somewhat unhealthy pattern. The son of Ministers Wild Cat had a run last month at Gulfstream Park in his first start since the fall of 2018 and was below form when fading to fifth but based on the possibility that he’ll move forward today you have to use him somewhere. Three Ay Em also should be included on your ticket. A winner of two of three over the local lawn and making his first start since being claimed for $25,000 out of a win at Del Mar three weeks ago, the E. Truman-trained colt can turn it on late and with some help up front should make his presence felt in the final furlong.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:10 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Appreciated; 5-Devil Made Me Doit; 7-Brickyard Ride

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Here’s a difficult entry-level allowance sprint that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three-deep but you should use as much coverage as your budget allows. Devil Made Me Doit was highly impressive in his debut win last December, scoring like a future star, but came out of the race with an issue and had to be stopped on. The son of Daredevil returned in challenging turf sprint at Del Mar last month and faded in the drive while perhaps needing the race (or maybe he just didn’t act on grass). We’ll find out more about him today when he returns to the track and distance of his maiden score, and with a solid five furlong workout (1:00 3/5, third fastest of 58) just eight days ago the D. O’Neill-trained colt should be set for his best. Brickyard Ride, a very quick colt, was fourth in the same race that our top selection finished ninth in and both were below form over a grass course that they may not have cared for. The C. Lewis-trained son of Clubhouse Ride is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and will try to be on the lead for as far as he can carry his speed. The weight break he receives due for being ridden by a bug boy won’t hurt. If the pace types go too fast (certainly a possibility), the late-running sprinter Appreciated could do some damage in the final furlong, though he’ll need some racing luck from his rail post. His win two races back earned a career top speed figure, one that’s good enough to beat this field, but the son of Acclamation is winless in four starts over the Santa Anita main track. He was 31-1 in a similar spot last time; today he’s listed at 3-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:41 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Le Tub; 9-Shes’a Perfectlady

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Shes’a Perfectlady received very little action (22-1) in her debut at Del Mar last month and was badly out-footed to the top of the lane while tenth and last with a quarter of a mile to go in that five furlong dash. However, she took hold after straightening in the lane and closed fastest of all to wind up fourth in traffic (subsequently moved up to third), beaten less than two lengths, and then galloped out far in from of the pack. Today she gets an extra half-furlong to work with, so if the daughter of Carpe Diem can get somewhat involved earlier today she could prove troublesome for new trainer J. Sadler, who takes over from C Gaines. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth a bit of a gamble. Le Tub finished first in that race but was dq’d and placed eighth, so she’s back in the same spot while making a significant rider switch to U. Rispoli. She’s the logical top pick and one to beat.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Flagstaff; 4-C Z Rocket

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: C Z Rocket and Flagstaff meet again, this time in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship after finishing one-two in the recent Pat O’Brien S.-G2 at Del Mar last month. They were tough to separate then (‘Rocket prevailed by a half-length) and they look evenly matched again. C Z Rocket is a perfect four-for-four since being claimed by P. Miller for $40,000 last spring and picks up L. Saez after F. Prat, who rode him last time, apparently opted for Collusion Illusion. In a race without much pace, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Saez aggressively ride the son of City Zip from the gate and perhaps try to make the lead, though the gelding’s preferred style always has been to stalk in the second flight and then produce a run. Falstaff used to show good gate quickness but now prefers to gather himself and build up steam. He’s a four-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and was third in this race last year behind Omaha Beach. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics – if you feel the need to toss in Collusion Illusion as well we certainly wouldn’t talk you of it – in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:43 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Althea Gibson; 5-Win Often

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Althea Gibson is improving with racing and looked fairly decent beating state-bred maidens sprinting on grass at Del Mar last month. This will be just her fourth career start, and with another forward move the daughter of Grazen should be capable of handling this raise in class. Win Often has been away since February, but she was a debut winner so we know she can fire fresh and her one prior outing over the local lawn produced a good runner-up effort under these conditions. The work tab isn’t flashy but should have her fit enough for a barn that can get them ready off the bench, so at 5-1 on the morning line she has to be used. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with a slight edge on top to Althea Gibson.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:14 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Cupid’s Claws; 2-Combatant

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Cupid’s Claws has never raced over a conventional dirt surface but he displays easy, efficient action when he trains on the main track so we suspect he’ll handle the surface switch just fine. The son of Kitten’s Joy won’t have any issue with the marathon 12-furlong trip in this year’s renewal of the Tokyo City Cup-G3, so in his first start since being claimed for $50,000 by C. Dollase out of a winning performance at Del Mar earlier this month, with the blinkers-off angle to consider, and with F. Prat staying aboard we’re going to put this veteran gelding on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 6-1. It’s hard to believe that Combatant won the ‘Big ‘Cap earlier this year – the son of Scat Daddy hasn’t gotten close in three subsequent outings – but his recent workouts indicate he may be perking up for J. Sadler, so with the switch to U. Rispoli we’re going to give him a chance to bounce back. He’s a grinder and thus should have no difficulty handling the marathon distance.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:45 PT Grade: B-
Use: 8-Constantia; 9-Viazar

Keys to the Race (view video)

Forecast: Eight of the 12 original entrants to this maiden turf miler for fillies and mares exit the same August 30 race at Del Mar. Viazar, second in that affair while well clear of the others, logically is the top pick today in what will be her fifth career start in a form cycle that shows steadily improving speed figures. M. Smith stays aboard and should have the daughter of Tapizar along in time. Constantia exits a series of high priced maiden claimers but is competitive at this supposedly tougher level based strictly on speed figures and is worth including on your ticket, at least as a back-up. She should be forwardly placed throughout in a race that probably will have modest early splits and be in the thick of the battle from the top of the lane to the wire.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2020, 06:30 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #3

#6 Cold Hearted Pearl	Pace presser catches a group with little early lick, drew perfectly, and will offer some value as well; call from close range.
#4 Stay Fond	Odds-on ML runner drops stiffly and will be a handful, but her lack of early speed may be her undoing; backwheel time.
#2 Cotton Candy Cutie	Tricky read was a strong 3rd the Spa and may be the speed, though she could also bounce off that run; mixed signals here.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 6, and that's because they will bet the 4 hard, but the pick has a big race flow edge, so play her to win and place, and get some added value by using her in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since budget players will be singling the 4, which means a win by the pick would knock out a lot of tickets from both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #4

#2 Lightfoot Miss	Closer was a close 5th on debut for Mott on debut, who never cranks them, and now she gets an extra furlong to work with; look out.
#4 Autostrada	Brown firster will be bet hard, and won't have to be a freak to win this, though she may want a bit more ground; tabbing for next time.
#3 Spa Ready	Brown's other firster is another with a long-distance pedigree, and the works look a bit slow too, so she may need this; underneath only.
Race Summary	That 3-1 ML on the pick seems fair, as she will have to run faster to win, but she should off that tightener, so play her to win and place, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is a race where the public will use more than a few, and a beating the two Brown's will knock a lot of tickets out of both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #7

#2 Hipsky	Atras firster goes for a sharp barn that is unknown with these types, but that wicked 9/13 bullet says this dude can run; thinking he's live.
#6 Highly Motivated	Stiff favorite will be bet hard for Brown off the fast debut 2nd, and if the firsters aren't ready, he's going to blast them; will be a real handful.
#8 Known Agenda	Pletcher firster starts with bullets in the holster for a 21% debut barn, though his pedigree says he'll want a bit more ground; may run out of room.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 2, as you want to see him live and taking money, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as he appears to have talent, and he may fall through the wagering cracks in both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-27-2020, 06:31 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Santa Anita

September 26, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Graded stakes races make up half of the challenging Late Pick 4 on Santa Anita’s card for Sunday.

The sequence kicks off in the eighth race with the Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship and includes the Grade 3 Tokyo Cup as the third leg and 10th race on the program.

The Sprint Championship brings out a short, but talented field of five for the six furlongs, and the Tokyo Cup, which will be raced at 1.5 miles, lured a field of seven.

The suggested Pick 4 this week totals $67.50. Here’s a look at the races in the sequence:

Race 8 (7 p.m. ET, Santa Anita Sprint Championship)

COLLUSION ILLUSION was eased in the American Pharoah last year. Not to worry, he’s the rest of his races. The 3-year-old has won five of six and was up in the final inch or two for a memorable Bing Crosby. Can adjust to any pace.

Still clearly on my mind is FLAGSTAFF’s remarkable second-place finish to Whitmore in the G3 Count Fleet. He closed with a rush, going from 11th to second. He barely lost the G2 Pat O’Brien to C Z Rocket and turns back from seven to six furlongs.

C Z ROCKET has won four straight since being claimed for $40,000. He carved out a perfect trip and was up in time in the Pat O’Brien and seems to have forgotten how to lose. He can give it his all when asked and he’s been as game as they come as he’s perfect in his four starts for trainer Peter Miller.

Race 9 (7:30 p.m. ET, optional claiming)

SOFI’S GOLD made her first turf start and got her first win. She set the pace and drew off, and while she takes a step up here, she can be in the mix from the word ‘go.’

NONE OF YOUR BIZ gave way in the CTBA Stakes last out and moves her speed over to the turf. She has a good pedigree for grass sprints.

SHYLOCK EDDIE has a lot of experience and made a nice move to second at the end of his latest. Fits well with the Cal-bred crowd.

WIN OFTEN has done well with two wins and two seconds in four starts and stays on the turf after a runner-up finish. Can stay in range throughout.

CONCISE ADVICE was up in time in her only start, which was 13 months ago at Del Mar. Has plenty of works and can make an impact in her return.

Race 10 (8 p.m. ET, Tokyo City Cup Stakes-Gr.3)

CUPID’S CLAWS was an even third in each in his last two races and was claimed in his last three – most recently by Craig Dollase. Steps up into a graded event but has good enough form to consider.

COMBATANT has only four wins and $1 million in earnings, which means he’s chased some lucrative purses. His last win came in the G1 Santa Anita Handicap and anything close to that gets him back to the winner’s circle. Consistency is something he hasn’t achieved and he’s in trouble if he doesn’t bring his best.

AZUL COAST was outrun in his last two but without a great deal of speed in here he should very close to the lead, if not right there. The 1 1-2 miles will be the big test, as it will with the others.

Race 11 (8:30 p.m. ET, maidens)

WIND AND HOPE comes off her best effort, can stay in range early and slight improvement here will put her in the mix late in the game.

DISAPPEARING ACT ran an even fifth and would be more effective in races with a quicker pace that she followed last time. She’s without his blinkers today and that could make a difference.

BRISTOL BAYOU ran on well last out and checked in at fourth. She’s had plenty of chances but it looks
like she has a good chance to be more effective on the turf in the long run.

Here’s the suggested ticket for Santa Anita’s Late Pick 4 on Sunday:
8) #1 Collusion Illusion, #3 Flagstaff, #4 C Z Rocket.
9) #1 Sofi’s Gold, #2 None of Your Biz, #3 Shylock Eddie, #6 Win Often, #7 Concise Advice.
10) #1 Cupid’s Claws, #2 Combatant, #7 Azul Coast.
11) #1 Wind and Hope, #2 Diasppearing Act, #10 Bristol Bayou.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 1-3-4 with 1-2-3-6-7 with 1-2-73-5-9 with 2-6-7 ($67.50).

Sunday 9/27/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 9/27/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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