Sunday 8/16/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:16 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

August 16, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has a big 16-race card set to go with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 13. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Saturday was Kyle Wilfong with 6 wins. No trainer on the 16-race card took more than one picture.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 13

2-Fox Valley Sierra (5/2)-Claimed in last from Terry Leonard and usually that's not a favorable angle for me. But versus this field, from this post, it's best to use.
4-Mocking Robin (4-1)-Wilfong chose the #2 instead, but Bates steers, drops from $8k claimers and is 2nd time Lasix so will respect chances. Has won 11 of 42 starts in Stickney.
6-Ok Jewel (3-1)-Another from the Herrera barn (2-6), drops and makes 3rd start for new barn. Back in at the same level of recent claim and Warren should put in play.

Race 14

1-He's Masterful (3-1)-Leonard is back tonight and that should help. Could get sucked around and use one brush down the lane to take a picture. This field is full of underperformers.
2-Gamblinforalivin (8/5)-Rolled home with a 56.3 back half to break maiden in the slop. Morning line chalk looks to be a player and it would be no surprise if wins right back.
4-Ringo Hotspur (10-1)-Had a breaking issue after the restart. Requalified and has had 2 flat lines but has raced from the back. Closed well in last and could be ready for a more aggressive steer at a price with Bates in the bike.

Race 15

1-Jazzie Babe (5/2)-Drops and was Franco's choice over the 6/7. Willis trainee should be in the mix if minds manners. Does like Haw, winning 5 of 15 starts.
4-Delightfully Wild (9-1)-This is a spot to shine, has done good work at this level. Could be a player at a nice price but will need the right trip.
5-Dee Rocks (4-1)-Was used hard into a .55 half and wasn't able to close in the stretch. Gets some post relief and that should make for a smoother journey. 5-year old has won 4 of 12 at Haw.

Race 16

1-Misscanfly (7/2)-This race appears to be one with a low-priced winner. If this Roberts trainee minds her manners she should be in the hunt at the wire. Stewart could work a ground saving trip from here.
3-Big Man Forever (5/2)-Has hit the board in 2 of 3 starts and has taken a picture after a dominant win on 8/9 with the trainer aboard. Leonard gets the assignment tonight and could be sitting on a big try.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,4,6/1,2,4/1,4,5/1,3
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:18 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk: My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Saratoga

August 16, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
We know the graded stakes races, like any others, can be a guessing game. Some races are underrated and some are given too much stock.
Sunday’s headliner at Saratoga is the $500,000 Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes, which is not graded, and will be contested at 1 3-16th miles, and several of the runners are coming out of graded events, including the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes.
However, going in to that 1 1-8th-mile event, it was apparent the runners were not what you’d expect for a Grade 2 in the Lake Placid. Speaktomeofsummer won the Lake Placid after running fourth in the Grade 3 Wonder Again. Enola Gay also comes off a Grade 2 win, this one in the Appalachian at Keeneland. It was her first and only two-turn attempt. Enola Gay’s win probably was better, but Speaktomeofsummer’s was over the Saratoga course, and that can be an advantage, but in this case it may not be. Others have come out of races that were probably as good as the Lake Placid. The lean is away from the Lake Placid in today’s suggested Late Pick 4 ticket ($72). The Oaks is the ninth on the card and the third leg of the sequence.
Here’s a look at the Late Pick 4 races:

Race 7 (4:40 p.m. ET, allowance)
PICASSO is a Tapit colt ready to make his first turf start. He was good in sprints and is a threat to carry his speed on out.
LA HARA was second in his initial start of 2020 after a nine-month layoff. Made a serious bid toward the yield, then hung late.
DURESS closed in all of his races and just didn’t hold it after he got the lead and was caught late. Looks ready to stretch out again.
MO GOTCHA battled out front and faltered to third last time in his first turf effort. Usually a pace factor and this distance effort on grass will give his connections a handle on what he prefers.

Race 8 (5:14 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
BERTRANDA outgamed a similar group going 6.5 furlongs and will not be hurt by turning back a half-furlong. Was very game in New York-bred races and will battle it out with these.
PLAYTONE was fifth in a stakes race in January and has been off since. Capable of mixing it up in this post, and that stakes appearance marked the only time in six starts she hadn’t been first of second.
BIG Q was clear second in stakes in her last two races and broke her maiden over this strip last year. She didn’t seriously threaten the winners of those stakes races, but carrying over those efforts to this race will make her a serious contender.

Race 9 (5:46 p.m. ET, Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes)
ENOLA GAY was impressive in her first distance encounter, and while she has raced only three times, she’ll likely get better with even more distance. She was fourth in a sprint stakes at Aqueduct, and the Appalachian was her first in eight months. It was particularly impressive as she kept close to fast fractions and ended the mile in 1:33 4-5. She has a sharp work over the Saratoga turf and is ready for a top effort.
ANTOINETTE moves over from the main track, where she was third in the Grade 1 Coaching Club of America Oaks. She broke her maiden on grass at Belmont last fall.
RICETTA invades from Great Britain, where she was most recently third in York’s Group 3 Musidora after wins at Newmarket in her first two races. Bill Mott takes over the training and gave the filly a moderate work on the Saratoga turf.

Race 10 (6:18 p.m. ET, claiming)
SOUTHERN BRIDGE drops to a claiming price for the first time and can get going early as she turned back in distance.
INK SPLOTZ tried some tough spots after a maiden-claiming win at Belmont. He’s a threat to shake loose, and rider Saez is strong on the front end.
DANGEROUS EDGE should get a favorable pace in front of him and has the late energy to take over if the speed falters.
BIG BOY MO faltered from early efforts and you never know what style you’ll see with him. He’s been on the front end but has also come from off the pace.

Saratoga Late Pick 4:
7) #3 Picasso, #6 La Hara, #9 Duress, #10 Mo Gotcha.
8) #6 Bertranda, #9 Playtone, #11 Big Q.
9) #2 Enola Gay, #3 Antoinette, #6 Ricetta.
10) #3 Southern Bridge, #6 Ink Splotz, #7 Dangerous Edge, #9 Big Boy Mo.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 3-6-9-10 with 6-9-11 with 2-3-6 with 3-6-7-9 ($72)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:19 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #6

#7 Striking Speed	Rice charge didn't fire on the turf but was a sharp 3rd on the main in his debut, against MSW foes, and on the drop, second-off the break, for a hot barn, this one seems primed; look out.
#4 Breithorn	Stalker took the blinkers off, returned to the main, and really woke up for Mott on the drop, and now goes down another level, so he hits hard, though he figures overbet too; second-best.
#2 Lost in Rome	Logical sort is another stalker who needs to be taken seriously off his last two, and he goes second-time blinkers as well, though you wonder if he'll get enough pace up front; mixed signals.
Race Summary	That 4-1 ML seems mighty inviting on the 7, who looks like he was pointed to this spot all along, for a barn picking its spots and having a strong meet, so play him in all the slots, while getting added value by using him to kick off the late Pk5 as well, as this is a deep field, with a few potentially vulnerable favorites, which means a win would knock out a lot of tickets right off the bat.

Saratoga - Race #8

#4 Prairie Fire	Stalker catches a field with plenty of early speed, has been running well (albeit without winning) of late, and will offer plenty of value too; upset special.
#6 Bertranda	Pace presser drew well to be outside the other gas, but there's plenty of it here, and this field is tougher than the one she just downed ; trying to beat.
#5 Letmetakethiscall	Pace player was a close 3rd against open foes last time and will be firing early, but with speed on both sides lasting late won't be easy; underneath only.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's plenty here to aid the 4, while potentially hurting both the 6 and 5, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she could fall through the wagering cracks, even though the race flow figures to suit her perfectly.

Saratoga - Race #0

#6 Ricetta	Dangerous invader was running well in Europe and now starts with Mott, has a ton of upside, and that 3rd in the GIII last time at York should set her up nicely here, at a trip you know she's likely going to appreciate more than most in here; expecting a huge run.
#2 Enola Gay	Underlaid ML favorite was all-out to win the GIII at Kee last time and meets a lot tougher here, while going farther too, and she was fortunate to win last time, so sure, she figures here, but that 2-1 price would make her a big play against; making her prove it on top.
#4 Stunning Sky	Stretch runner showed more tactical speed last time, which should help her here, and she was just a head behind the 1, so clearly she figures here, for Maker, who has been having a huge meet, and excels in these long-distance turf routes; contention runs deep.
Race Summary	You get ace connections on the 6, and the Euro races are largely better than the ones we're running here, so there's class in this corner too, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, as this is a solid group, but also one that doesn't overwhelm, which means this miss should be right at home, at what should be viewed as a class drop.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:20 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#6 Mountain Melodies	Rolled the local competition last time out, and there's little reason to think she won't handle the turf. This is an exceedingly reasonable spot to return to try winners, and the guess is she's the one.
#3 Sophie Rules	Has not shown much in a couple of turf tries, but like the top choice, she proved to be a really good fit with the local crew when posting that 18-length maiden win.
#2 Friday	Decent effort with better in that local run two starts back, but she's probably a bit overbet in this spot with what appears to be a somewhat limited ceiling.
Race Summary	Mountain Melodies has some pedigree for the turf, and she proved that she's good fit with the local company with that easy score last time out.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#7 Cee R Bee	Owns some back runs that might be good enough to give the heavy chalk a scare, as he has handled a route run in the past and took to the turf nicely last time out.
#5 Heart in Hand	Has rattled off three in a row and figures tough again at a short price. Decision here is whether to single this guy and move on, or try and beat him.
#3 Catauga County	Finisher has run a handful of decent route races in the past, but he might still be a bit better on the main track than on the turf.
Race Summary	Cee R Bee gets his first route test on the turf today, and that may lead to a decent kind of pressing trip from close range after that good finishing effort going short on the turf last out.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#8 I'm Ever Ready	Versatile type can flash pace or finish, and he has never run a truly bad race through six starts at two tracks with a long layoff in the middle. Dangerous.
#1 Flat Out Prize	Romped at Indiana Grand when dropping in last time out, and though something similar would probably do the trick, he seems likely overbet with these.
#5 Kitten's Man	Finishing type can sit a decent trip while watching the splits unfold, and his best stuff keeps him right in the mix with these at a fair price.
Race Summary	I'm Ever Ready draws well to flash some pace from the outside, and he can settle just a touch off the speed if necessary.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:21 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#8 Omaha City	Was third in his last two races since he went on turf and the experience should give him an edge.
#2 Murray's Bar	Set the pace and held third in his first start; Ward always brings fast 2-year-olds and this one probably will be the one to catch.
#6 King Buddha	Has had three bullet works in the past two months and the Kantharos colt should be able to scoot.
Race Summary	Omaha City can get a good stalking position in this one, and should benefit from being outside of horses; can make an impact late.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#1 Shoshone Brave	Makes his first start since November and ended the year by tiring in a pair of fast stakes races; has some good works to his credit and should be tough to catch at this level.
#11 Sovereign Warrior	Was fourth in the Turf Sprint Stakes two back and will be very tough if he runs back to that.
#3 Kyle	Was second in her last three turf attempts and can be close to the lead throughout this one.
Race Summary	Shoshone Brave is ultra rapid and often brings his best going five furlongs on grass; can get to the lead and his works indicate he'll run a big one in his first back from a vacation.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#7 Zulu	Was up in time and was claimed in his latest, which was in February; he has a stakes background and fits well under these starter conditions.
#5 Sharm El Sheikh	Just missed two back and then was fourth in a stakes race; has been in some good spots and runs well on turf.
#3 Morning Stride	Was an easy winner going longer last time and is a natural for this 1 3-16th-mile distance; faces tougher horses this time around.
Race Summary	Zulu is a strong veteran campaigner and like running long distances; has trained well for his return.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:26 AM

Mike Wynn

Free Pick: LA Dodgers w/May -160 over LA Angels

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:26 AM

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR SUNDAY:TEXAS/COLORADO UNDER 12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:26 AM

Totals4U

Sunday's Free Selection: Texas Rangers/Colorado Rockies over 12 1/2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:26 AM

Atlantic Sports

Sunday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Colorado Rockies - 150

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:26 AM

#1 Sports

Sunday's Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers - 155

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:27 AM

Platinum Plays

Your Free Pick: the Texas Rangers w/Allard +140 over Colorado

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:27 AM

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Sunday : SEATTLE/HOUSTON UNDER the total of 9½

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:27 AM

Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Sunday
NY Mets Porcello +131

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-16-2020, 08:27 AM

Hawkeye Sports

Sunday's Free Pick: Chicago White Sox - 150