Service Plays Thursday 7/16/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Jul 16 '20, 1:00 PM in 2h
Soccer | Sheffield United vs Leicester
Play on: Sheffield United 0½ -108 at pinnacle

SHEFFIELD UNITED @ LEICESTER FREE PICK
29-9 (76%) +$19,630 All Free Picks YTD!
One would expect Leicester to be at the top of their game now as they are battling Man U for the last Champions League spot, but the reality is that they've played with little urgency lately and took a 4-1 beating by Bournemouth last time out.
Here they'll face a red hot Sheffield United team that is undefeated through its last four games with impressive wins over Tottenham, Wolves and Chelsea. A win here would see Sheffield United move into a Europa League spot, which would be a huge accomplishment for them.
Sheffield United has lost only four of 17 away EPL games on the season and I fully expect them to leave King Power Stadium with at least one point.
Free pick on Sheffield United +0.5. ,
Do not even consider making a move on Thursday's soccer card without premium knowledge from. Mike Lundin. He has a multi-pick premium package posted which gives you THREE WINNERS at a cheap price. Package includes:
- LA LIGA BOOKIE BREAKER TOP PLAY
- INTER @ SPAL SERIE A NO BRAINER
- MAN UTD @ CRYSTAL PALACE PREMIER LEAGUE PUNISHER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jesse Schule

Jul 16 '20, 8:00 PM in 9h
Soccer | Toronto FC vs Montreal
Play on: OVER 2½ -140

This is a Free play on Over 2.5.
Toronto saw it's opening game postponed not once but twice, but once they got going against DC United they got off to a hot start. They scored a pair of first half goals, and with a 2-0 lead and DC United down to 10 men, the game appeared to be in hand. Somehow they managed to concede a pair of goals in the final 10 minutes, settling for a draw. Leads haven't been holding up here in this tournament in recent days, we saw Vancouver blow a 3-1 lead just yesterday. Toronto has gone over the total in four of their last five matches, and the way this tournament is going, high scores should continue to be the trend.
GL,
Jesse Schule

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)
Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 2:48P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (INDIANA BRED LIFETIME CONDITIONAL CLAIMING RACES FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * AGGRESSIVITY: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. NAUGHTY ALFRED: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. ONCEWEWEREBROTHERS: Horse ranks in the top three in average Eq uibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	AGGRESSIVITY	5/1	4/1
1	NAUGHTY ALFRED	12/1	6/1
7	ONCEWEWEREBROTHERS	2/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	PALVERA	5	3/1	Front-runner	89	90	86.4	69.8	62.3
7	ONCEWEWEREBROTHERS	7	2/1	Front-runner	94	99	86.0	77.4	69.9
6	SOUL SONG	6	6/1	Front-runner	79	82	80.9	49.2	38.7
2	ROAD GAME	2	15/1	Front-runner	85	87	80.7	73.0	65.0
1	NAUGHTY ALFRED	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	90	79.6	81.8	75.8
3	AGGRESSIVITY	3	5/1	Trailer	93	89	61.6	85.0	82.0
4	ALLGRIT	4	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	76	42.7	58.0	44.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 10:17
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CHRIS' CHEROKEEBOP is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CHRIS' CHEROKEEBOP: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. H orse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. WINDSOR CALLING: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top t hree in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GATTOSING: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
10	CHRIS' CHEROKEEBOP	8/1	3/1
6	WINDSOR CALLING	15/1	6/1
3	GATTOSING	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	CHRIS' CHEROKEEBOP	10	8/1	Front-runner	73	66	82.4	64.2	56.2
6	WINDSOR CALLING	6	15/1	Front-runner	73	67	76.0	51.8	41.8
5	ORIOLES MAGIC	5	15/1	Front-runner	65	64	72.6	54.6	37.6
9	FIREBIRD	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	64	61.2	62.4	54.9
3	GATTOSING	3	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	67	70	58.2	62.4	55.4
8	KULANI	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	70	59	52.0	62.8	56.8
2	SYNERGY UNBRIDLED	2	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	76	63	44.6	56.4	47.9
1	FIT BUT FAT	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	52	80.2	53.2	43.7
7	COCONUT MAN	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	56	37.6	38.2	22.2
4	SAMADI BLUE	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	55	27.1	51.8	33.8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Saratoga

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 9.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 CASTLE CASANOVA 7/2
# 7 JEROME AVENUE 5/2
# 2 GRIT AND GLORY 6/1

CASTLE CASANOVA has a solid shot to take this race. Posted a respectable speed figure last time out. JEROME AVENUE - With a quite good 89 Equibase speed fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this race. Has solid Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. GRIT AND GLORY - Should come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the lead recently. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Rice have shown very solid results lately.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #7 - Post: 8:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#7 GET DIRECTIONS (ML=5/1)
#1 LADY CARLOS (ML=2/1)


GET DIRECTIONS - After the event aboard this horse on June 11th, the jock is going to know the filly much better. Trying to break maiden moving from a turf race to the main track. I think Arndt will have her conditioned well for today's race. LADY CARLOS - This filly is in first-rate physical condition right now. Ended up second last time around the track and comes back rapidly. Jock jumped on this filly's back for the 1st attempt on Jun 19th. Should be in tune with the horse even better in today's contest. Earnings per start is something that I feel can be a most important factor. This animal is ranked number one in this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SUPER LEGS (ML=4/1), #2 MAW MAW'S SOPHIA (ML=5/1), #5 KORAT QUEEN (ML=6/1),

SUPER LEGS - This horse hasn't been hitting the board in either of her last couple of races. 4/1 is not worth the risk for any horse in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race of late. MAW MAW'S SOPHIA - Not probable that the speed figure she earned on June 19th will hold up in this race. KORAT QUEEN - In any event of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to support a contender that has been sharp in sprint races lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 GET DIRECTIONS is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 4:58pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,500 Class Rating: 62

Rating:

#5 ECHO LOCATION (ML=6/1)


ECHO LOCATION - You'll be generating money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jockey/trainer combination. Filly took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SHOWBIZ LADY (ML=2/1), #1 PIERIAN (ML=3/1), #4 WUK UP QUEEN (ML=4/1),

SHOWBIZ LADY - I usually try to beat these types of favorites off the extended vacation. This filly finished out of the money on June 28th and wasn't close to victory in the last race either. PIERIAN - Substandard speed rating last time around the track at Woodbine at 5 furlongs. Don't think this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event. WUK UP QUEEN - Tough to like the downward moving flow (79/62/39) of speed figures. The seventh place finish last time out coming after the very long layoff is surely not a positive indication.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ECHO LOCATION - Buntain has found an easier group for this filly today. Last event was nowhere near as tough as this one.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 ECHO LOCATION on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 56

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 BAYOU KUE 20/1
# 2 HEREZ THE BAR 6/1
# 8 A REAL WORLD 20/1

BAYOU KUE is the strongest wager in this race especially at such a decent 20/1. The offspring of this sire have historically shown very good dividends. His trainer has done soundly with entries going to the post for the first time. Tristan has shown excellent profits (+75 ROI ) at this distance/surface. HEREZ THE BAR - The progeny of Five Bar Cartel have the best profits in this group of horses in this race for first time starters. Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this colt has moved rapidly to the lead recently. Very strong jock with handler numbers make this horse a solid pick. A REAL WORLD - With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Watson ought to have this gelding in excellent position to win the race.

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

07/16/20, SAR, Race 9, 5.46 ET
07/16/20,SAR,9,1 1/8M [Dirt] 1:46:03 STAKES. Peter Pan Stakes. Grade 3. Purse $100,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. By subscription of $100 each which should accompany the nomination; $750 to pass the entry box and an additional $750 to start. For horses not originally nominated, a supplemental payment of $1,500 along with the entry and starting fees may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse to be divided 55% to the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth, 4% to fifth and 3% divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. The Peter Pan has been selected as one the races in the Kentucky Derby Championship Series. The winner of the Peter Pan will be awarded 50 points, the second place finisher 20 points, the third place finisher 10 points and the fourth place finisher 5 points. Weight 123 lbs. Non-winners of a graded sweepstake at a mile or over in 2020 allowed 3 lbs.; of a sweepstake other than state-bred at a mile or over or three races other than maiden, claiming, starter or state-bred allowance allowed 5 lbs. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. Closed Saturday, July 4, 2020 with 32 Nominations.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Country Grammer	7/2	Ortiz. Jr. I	Brown Chad C.	JTW	42.50	1.81/$1
098.3669	6	Mystic Guide	5/2	Ortiz J L	Stidham Michael	SFC	33.33	1.40/$1
098.1318	3	Modernist	7/2	Alvarado J	Mott William I.	E	33.33	1.40/$1
096.6495	5	Candy Tycoon	5-1	Velazquez J R	Pletcher Todd A.		33.33	1.40/$1
095.9076	1	Mo Hawk	20-1	Rosario J	Brisset Rodolphe		26.32	1.29/$1
095.4347	7	Caracaro	6-1	Castellano J	Delgado Gustavo	L	33.33	1.40/$1
095.2062	8	Chestertown(b+)	10-1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		33.33	1.40/$1
093.7076	9	Katzarelli	30-1	Davis D	Amoss Thomas M.		33.33	1.40/$1
093.6507	4	Celtic Striker	12-1	Franco M	Handal Raymond		33.33	1.40/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.55, ROI 1.00/$1

[golden contender]

Thursday play

Thursday comp play is on the Mighty Madrid at 3:00 eastern. Real Madrid are sure to win here in this fixture. They are on a 9 match win streak and have conceded a single goal in the past six matches. They had also scored two or more goals in six of the last nine clashes. They will want to wrap up the league here today with a win. They have dominated Villareal in the series garnering 24 of the last 28 wins in the series. Villareal have one win here in last 23 years. Madrid is tough At home, they are on a 6 winning run, and they have not conceded a single goal in the last four appearances here. They have scored 2 or more in 7 of the last 9 fixtures here. Backed by the stats, expect Real Madrid to deliver their 34th La Liga title this Thursday. Make it Madrid. RV- GC Sports.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE HORSE RACING WINNER 7/16/20
RACE #3 from EVANGELINE DOWNS
POST TIME: 7:44 PM EST
Free Pick: #4 Big Boy Dave Rex 5/1 Odds to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

1/ST BET Selections for Saratoga Opening Day

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July 16, 2020
Opening Day at Saratoga may not look exactly the same as summers past, but today’s 10-race, dual-stakes card rings some familiar tunes. The co-features bring something old (Schuylerville Stakes) and something new (Peter Pan Stakes) to the Spa – the latter transferred from the Belmont meet and as a springboard toward the Travers, which will be run earlier than usual on August 8.

The 1/ST BET app’s ability to process millions of data points over past races can be helpful when looking at a unique, boutique meet like Saratoga. 1/ST BET matches its 52 handicapping categories over similar past races and today’s field to create its AI selections. Here’s looking at today’s main events at the Spa through the eyes of the algorithms.

Best Bet: Race 4 Maiden Special Weight (2:54PM ET)

#5 Valletta 31%W, 49%P, 66%S
#4 Palace Duchess 15%W, 26%P, 34%S
#3 Dial Me Up 12%W, 30%P, 48%S
#7 Gran Chemin 12%W, 34%P, 55%S

Summary: #5 Valletta (5-2 ML) has a 16-point spread to the race’s second choice, widest on the card. In fact, of the top 6 factors that have produced the best results in these types of races historically, Valletta ranks first in this field in 4 of those. She could be the single in the opening day early pick five and pick four wagers.

Stakes Co-Features

Race 8 Schuylerville Stakes (5:14PM ET)

#4 Quinoa Tifah 30%W, 51%P, 63%S
#3 Beautiful Memories 18%W, 32%P, 43%S
#8 Hopeful Princess 12%W, 25%P, 38%S
#7 Dayoutoftheoffice 12%W, 26%, 39%S

Summary: Longshot #4 Quinoa Tifah (15-1 ML) checked all of the important boxes of the 1/ST BET factors as her debut win ranked on top in each of the 6 most-important factors in this type of race historically. Heavy favorite #3 Beautiful Memories (6-5 ML) did not score out as highly as anticipated, but clearly leads the rest.

Race 9 Peter Pan (5:46PM ET)

#3 Modernist 23%W, 37%P, 53%S
#7 Caracaro 22%W, 44%P, 62%S
#2 Country Grammer 16%W, 23%P, 36%S
#6 Mystic Guide 16%W, 40%P, 52%S

Summary: #3 Modernist (7-2 ML) ranks No. 1 in the field in the top 2 factors for similar races historically and 7 of the top 15 factors. He has a slight edge on #7 Caracaro (6-1 ML) overall, though that rival leads the way in 5 of the top 9 most-important factors for the Peter Pan Stakes. These two runners dominate as leaders in 12 of the 15 top factors.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Wagering Strategies - 7/16/20

July 16, 2020

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Thursday, July 16, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers: View Video


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RACE 1: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: X
Single/Pass: 6-Guy Caballero

Forecast: On pure form and given the projected paced scenario Guy Caballero should be a standout in the season’s opener, a $14,000 nine furlong main track claimer for older horses. But he shows an unhealthy pattern and probably won’t be worth the short price he’s sure to leave at. The veteran gelding was claimed for $35,000 three runs back, hit the board in his next two when trained by J. Navarro, and today shows up in the R. Rodriguez barn on a big class drop in his first outing since mid-February. While it’s likely he inherits the role as the controlling speed with soft fractions, the veteran Quality Road gelding shows a lifetime record of two wins from 28 starts and often has failed to deliver the goods when favored. If it’s not him, it could be anybody, so this is the type of race that probably is best left alone.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Leading West; 10-Scanno

Forecast: Leading West seems fairly logical is this $75,000 maiden-claiming middle distance turf affair after two recent runner-up efforts in straight maiden company at Gulfstream Park. The Distorted Humor colt adds blinkers for the first time, picks up I. Ortiz, Jr., and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip. He’s not particular fast on speed figures, but none of the others are, either. Scanno has finished in the frame in his last pair, most recently third at this level at Belmont Park last month. He’s a 10-race maiden and perhaps not one to be counted on but may be worth tossing in as a saver or a back-up.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Figure of Speech; 3-Palace Avenger; 5-Palomita

Forecast: This race drew just five runners, two of which reside in the C. Brown barn, so it’s probably a good race to stay away from. Palomita was seven clear of the rest when a strong runner-up with a good number when last seen at the Big A in early March and returns with a healthy work tab and cozy outside draw. Her non-coupled stablemate, Figure of Speech, broke her maiden at first asking easily and impressively over the Saratoga main track last year, but after finishing a distant third in the Spinaway S.-G1 was stopped on and turned out. A comeback race last month in Kentucky – a faltering sixth, beaten almost 11 lengths – provides no evidence that she’s made any progress between her two and three-year-old seasons, but a solid series of workouts since that race and the return of “win rider J. Castellano to the saddle gives hope that the daughter of Into Mischief can bounce back. Palace Avenger has an advantage in the speed figure department – that is, if you can believe her most recent number at Churchill Downs - and probably should be included somewhere on your ticket as well. The W. Ward-trained filly looks to be the quickest in the field and was more than two lengths clear of a next-out winner in her most recent outing. That said, she’s always been suspect under pressure in the final furlong.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Yes to Mischief

Forecast: Yes to Mischief was scratched at the gate in a maiden special weight turf sprint at Belmont Park July 4 and didn’t work back until five days later, so we assumed she banged herself pretty good. She impressed at the OBS March last year, breezing a furlong in :10 flat and then bringing $400,00 at auction, and looks like a very live item in this main track dash that came up softer than expected. J. Ortiz takes call for M. Casse – always a good trainer/jockey combo – so if she minds her manners the daughter of Into Mischief can win at first asking while offering value at or near her morning line of 9/2. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single. (Note: see Day Maker video analysis above).
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Dark Money; 8-The Caretaker

Forecast: Dark Money is strictly the one to beat in this $40,000 optional claiming sprint. This return to a seller may seem a bit suspicious following a nice first-level allowance score at Belmont Park last month, but the R. Rodriguez barn runs them where they can win and this relatively lightly-raced Central Banker gelding – victorious in six of 13 career starts - should settle into a comfortable stalking position and then have dead aim from the top of the lane to the wire. The Caretaker hits hard at this optional $40,000 level, is comfortably drawn outside, and is a two-time winner over the Saratoga main track. First or second in 16 of 31 career starts, the son of Speightstown always has been genuine and consistent and as usual will be doing his best work from well off the early fractions. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play; we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Dark Money.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Mr Everything; 7-Sir Chubby; 8-Spitball; 9-Propensity

Forecast: Here’s a tough affair, a maiden-claiming turf sprint that drew a full field. Best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. Propensity is winless in eight starts and surfaces for a tag for the first time after a dull effort when well-backed (3-1) vs. straight maiden foes at Belmont Park last month. This is a considerably easier group, and with a repeat of his best race the son of Twirling Candy should be capable of winning in this league. Spitball finished second in a similar affair at Belmont Park in what was just his second career start and not much more will be needed to earn a diploma today. Mr Everything seems likely to get plenty of play with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. The Mr Speaker gelding has had just four starts and may very well enjoy an abbreviated sprint such as this. Sir Chubby switches to J. Castellano and projects as a threat from off the pace. The son of Tiznow has never sprinted in his nine-race career but with patient handling and good racing luck he could make his presence felt late.
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RACE 7: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Astoria Kitten; 8-Pandamom; 9-Summer At the Spa

Forecast: Astoria Kitten has steadily rising speed figures, a good inside draw, and a projected pace flow that should favor her pressing/stalking style. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and in fact may find herself as the controlling speed. Given that trip she could get brave, just as she did in her maiden win last year. Pandamom seems to be a progressive sort and should make her presence felt. The daughter of Uncle Mo was handed a walking lead last month in a state-bred maiden affair and took full advantage of the situation; today she might find herself in a stalker’s role. A bullet training track workout since raced indicates she’s doing well and ready for another forward move. Summer At the Spa won her debut last November from far back in a sprint, was stopped on, and then returned in good style when once again rallying from the rear of the pack to be a willing runner-up in the same race Astoria Kitten exits. The Summer Front filly has every right to improve in her second start off the layoff but it must be noted that she was race-shape aided in that race and today’s pace scenario projects to be somewhat softer.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Beautiful Memories

Forecast: Beautiful Memories is 6/5 on the morning line by virtue of her fast, highly-rated and visually pleasing 10-length maiden debut win at Churchill Downs in late May. She’s been tearing up the track in the interim, most recently breezing five furlongs in Kentucky in :59 1/5, the fastest of 34 for the distance. Assuming the daughter of Hard Spun makes no mistakes, it’s hard to envision her getting beat in this year’s edition of the Schuylerville S.-G3, but of course she’ll be offering little to no wagering value other than as a short-price rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Mystic Guide

Forecast: Mystic Guide was very impressive breaking his maiden at Fair Grounds in March in just his second career start and then lost little in defeat while earning a career top speed figure in his runner-up effort behind Tap It to Win in a stakes-quality first-level allowance affair at Belmont Park last month. His style suggests he’ll be more comfortable in today’s two-turn, mile and one-eighth affair and with a strong healthy recent work tab at Fair Hill the M. Stidham-trained son of Ghostzapper should continue his rapid improvement. There should be sufficient early pace to compliment his late-running style, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make him a strong win play and rolling exotic single. (Note: see Day Maker video analysis above).

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RACE 10: Post 6:18 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Secure Connection; 2-Doll

Forecast: The finale is a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming turf sprint for older fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just the inside two runners, with Secure Connection getting the slight nod on top. Shug’s filly has sprinted on grass only once in her career – a solid runner-up effort in her second lifetime outing vs. maiden special weight foes at Laurel – and with this turn back in trip combined with a class drop into a seller for the first time and the switch to J. Ortiz, Jr. the daughter of Data Link should be capable of tagging the leaders close home. Doll, in the frame in eight of nine career starts was most recently second in a similar spot last month at Belmont Park when hitting the front late but getting tagged close home, She’s always been vulnerable in deep stretch but catches a field without an abundance of early speed and may take some catching if not pressured early.
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