Service Plays Saturday 6/27/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 09:01 AM

Race of the Week: Ohio Derby from Thistledown

June 25, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 3 $500,000 OHIO DERBY AT THISTLEDOWN
Saturday, June 27, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Parlay your Belmont Stakes excitement with Derby Day in greater Cleveland. Thistledown's Ohio Derby program is a 9-race offering with the $500,000 main event slated for Race 8 and a 4:22 pm ET post. A capacity field of 14 could contest the 1-1/8 miles event, whose history dates back to 1876 and has been won by the likes of 1924 Kentucky Derby winner Black Gold, as well as more contemporary stars like Lost Code and Skip Away.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner STORM THE COURT has this field's signature victory. Listed stakes winners ROWDY YATES, LEBDA and SOUTH BEND all are Grade 3-placed. SOROS also is a listed stakes winner. STORM THE COURT has a decided class edge on strength of schedules.

Pace:
The inside 5 runners all have some interest in being near the lead, as does BEAR ALLEY, ESTABLISHED and widest-drawn CELTIC STRIKER. This appears to be a hot pace, and the removal of blinkers and wide draw for STORM THE COURT likely will have him a bit farther off the pace than his past running lines suggest. That might be a good thing in this scenario.

Our Eyes:
STORM THE COURT brings regular pilot and recently crowned Santa Anita champ Flavien Prat with him to Ohio. The question of travel remains with last year's 2-year-old champion. His only roadie was his worst career performance, a tired 6th by 12 lengths in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. There are no Nadal-level runners in Saturday's lineup, to be sure, but there is some concern how STORM THE COURT will fair away from home. Trainer Peter Eurton brought Core Beliefs here in 2018 from California to win this race. His workouts seen at XBTV.com since the Arkansas Derby have been decidedly stronger than he was earlier in the year. STORM THE COURT spots the field 4-6 pounds over an extended distance and has to overcome a wide post draw. He's the horse to beat, but you're not out of line for exploring.

ROWDY YATES and CODE RUNNER compete uncoupled for Steve Asmussen, who has had runners finish third, fourth and third in the Ohio Derby over the past 3 editions. ROWDY YATES takes his track with him, from the last year's Ellis Park Derby to the Oklahoma Classics to this year's Riley Allison Derby in New Mexico and the Saudi Cup Derby in the Middle East. His sire Morning Line has had strong success with his offspring at Thistledown (25% wins, 55% in exacta), according to 1/ST BET stats. But the 1-1/8 miles distance is the biggest question for a colt whose been best around a mile and his pedigree screams miler. CODE RUNNER should be the longer price of the pair and may be the lean at 9 furlongs. He's bred top and bottom for distance, and finished very strong in his June 8 allowance win at Lone Star Park.

LEBDA is second choice on the morning line at 7-2 for high percentage Maryland trainer Claudio Gonzalez. LEBDA is 3-for-4 at Laurel Park and 1-for-4 on the road. He caught a soft cast of 3-year-olds this winter at Laurel compared to the past few years. His pedigree leans more toward a miler, but was able to stretch 1-1/16 miles in the Private Terms as the 6-5 favorite. This is a much tougher test and the early pace figures to be competitive. The barn did bring Sneaky Betty to Thistledown to finish second in stakes company in 2018, but rarely ventures outside the Mid-Atlantic (if not for Aqueduct). Among the lower prices, I'm standing against him.

SOROS travels north from Florida where he was most recently 7 lengths behind Dr Post in the Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park. That performance doesn't look nearly as bad after Dr Post returned to run a clear-cut, second-best in last week's Belmont Stakes. Top local pilot Luan Machado gets the mount, and I like to see when seasoned local riders pick up talented ship-in mounts. Familiarity with the course can be a boost.

Fellow Floridian UNRIGHTEOUS has a strong jockey-trainer combo of Deshawn Parker and Todd Pletcher, not that they've done so together. Parker has ridden more than 5,700 winners, ranking between Jerry Bailey and Mike Smith at No. 22 on the all-time victories list. Pletcher makes his first Ohio Derby appearance since 2016 and looks to add this race's trophy to his expansive mantel. UNRIGHTEOUS didn't fire in the Tampa Bay Derby while a maiden, but has since delivered a clear-cut victory at Gulfstream Park around 2 turns. He's from a female family that includes several 3YO second-tier route stakes winners of races like the El Camino Real Derby, Spiral and Super Derby. Sire Violence gets a rousing 31% winners at Thistledown, according to 1/ST BET stats. Post 14 does him no favors, however.

SOUTH BEND opened his career 3-for-3 on dirt before his connections tried to make a turf horse out of him. He's lost his speed of late, and the removal of blinkers may not be a recipe to find it for most, but might work for him. He showed more early interest at the outset of his career without the shades. Veteran pilot Rafael Bejarano is a cool hand in the saddle in a $500,000 race. SOUTH BEND could wake up Saturday despite 7 straight losses.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: SOUTH BEND is 4-for-4 in the superfecta on fast dirt (3 wins) and has the right, closing running style for this race shape. He's held classier company lines than most of these.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: SPRAWL is 15-1 in the morning line and notably unbeaten around 2 turns on dirt. He scored a Keeneland maiden victory last fall and a May 28 Churchill allowance in his only chances to stretch his legs. In-between there have been 6 losses in 1-turn affairs to cloud his form. The damsire Awesome Again projects this one better over the trip for renowned trainer Bill Mott.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 win SPRAWL. $5 exacta key-box SPRAWL with SOUTH BEND, STORM THE COURT, SOROS, UNRIGHTEOUS and CODE RUNNER ($50).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 09:03 AM

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in a bet for Hamlin at 10-1 for his win at Miami. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns!

Make sure you're following Mike on Twitter @Mike5754 for last minute updates and questions.

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1 Kyle Busch 5-1
2 Kevin Harvick 5-1
3 Denny Hamlin 7-1
4 Martin Truex Jr 7-1
5 Chase Elliott 15-2
6 Brad Keselowski 8-1
7 Joey Logano 10-1
8 Ryan Blaney 12-1
9 Kurt Busch 22-1
10 Clint Bowyer 28-1

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Tyler Reddick
12 Alex Bowman
13 Jimmie Johnson
14 Erik Jones
15 William Byron
16 Aric Almirola
17 Matt DiBenedetto
18 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
19 Ryan Newman
20 Cole Custer
21 Matt Kenseth
22 Christopher Bell
23 Bubba Wallace
24 Austin Dillon
25 Chris Buescher
26 Daniel Suarez
27 Ty Dillon
28 Michael McDowell
29 Corey Lajoie
30 Ryan Preece
31 John H. Nemechek
32 Timmy Hill
33 Brennan Poole
34 Garrett Smithley
35 Joey Gase
36 JJ Yeley
37 Quin Houff
38 BJ McLeod
39 Gray Gaulding

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 09:03 AM

Saturday, June 27: Stars Shine in Churchill All-Stakes Late Pick

June 24, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian
Talk about a weekend for watching horse racing’s shining stars.

On Saturday at Churchill, horses like Midnight Bisou, Tom’s d’Etat, By My Standards, Serengeti Empress and Owendale are among the entries. And Saturday’s Belmont slate includes Uni, Newspaperofrecord, Promises Fulfilled and Come Dancing.

And for the cherry on top, on Saturday just outside of Cleveland, Ohio the reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ, Storm the Court, takes on a full field in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby. Not a bad day to play the races, huh?

The Churchill All-Stakes Late Pick 4 jumped out to our team, so we have made it a 1 Million XB Rewards Point bet. What does that mean? Well, it’s simple. Hit that bet with your Xpressbet account and you’ll win a Split of XB Rewards Points. Rewards Points are a currency around here – think of them like airline miles – but instead of redeeming for magazine subscriptions, you can redeem for betting vouchers and past performances. The fewer people that hit the All-Stakes Pick 4, the most Points each winner receives.

The All-Stakes Pick 4 at Churchill covers Races 8 – 11 and gets underway at 4:43PM ET. Here’s my take on the sequence. Spoiler alert – if it’s ‘bombs away’ in any of the races, I won’t be a winner.

Race 8 (4:43PM ET) – Bashford Manor Stakes (G3, $100K)

On paper, this race is more of a coronation of Steve Asmussen’s #6 CAZADERO than it is a horse race. After all, the 81 Beyer Speed Figure he earned on debut at Churchill on May 29 is 20+ points higher than any other horse in the field has received (although, worth noting that Beyers are not assigned for the debuts of three of these horses). I’ll use him alongside #5 HERD IMMUNITY, who was, let’s say ‘professional’ on debut for Peter Miller at Santa Anita on June 6. Miller does extremely well with 2YO’s and he should move forward from that first race.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #5 HERD IMMUNITY (9/2), #6 CAZADERO (8/5)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: #3 GATSBY (4/1), #5 HYPERFOCUS (4/1), #7 COUNTY FINAL (6/1)

Race 9 (5:15PM ET) – Fleur de Lis Stakes (G2, $200K)

Many handicappers will check the box next to #5 MIDNIGHT BISOU and go on to the next one. And it’s hard to blame them. She’s 12-for-20 in her career and is coming off a 3/4-length defeat behind Maximum Security in the Saudi Cup on February 29. I’m going to double my ticket cost and add in #4 SERENGETI EMPRESS as I think she has a legitimate shot to steal this race. She loves Churchill and there isn’t a lot of speed in here, which should pave her path to the front. And after her debacle in the G1 Apple Blossom (never made the lead and tired to 11th) you have to assume that Joe Talamo will push her hard out of the gate to establish the lead. Can Midnight Bisou reel her in? In her first start since February and her second in nearly eight months, it’s not impossible to believe she could need one.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #4 SERENGETI EMPRESS (2/1), #5 MIDNIGHT BISOU (3/5)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: None

Race 10 (5:47PM ET) – Stephen Foster Handicap (G2, $500K)

Let’s treat this as a two horse race as well, using #5 TOM’S D’ETAT and #6 BY MY STANDARDS. TOM’S D’ETAT is the class of the bunch, having won 10-of-17 and three straight, including the Oaklawn Mile last out over Improbable. But if there’s one hitch in his giddyup, it’s that regular rider, Joel Rosario, isn’t in town to ride and he’s going to be chasing BY MY STANDARDS, who is certainly no slouch. He has won three straight races (and five of his last six) with the lone defeat since January 2019 coming in the ’19 KY Derby. He’s going to sit a phenomenal trip just off #2 PIRATE’S PUNCH and they’ll need to bring their running shoes to catch him.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #5 TOM’S D’ETAT (1/1), #6 BY MY STANDARDS (5/2)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: #8 OWENDALE (4/1)

Race 11 (6:20PM ET) – Regret Stakes (G3, $100K)

With most of the horses in here coming out of Tepin Stakes (the race that produced Royal Ascot runner-up, Sharing) we have to ask – do you use all of them or look elsewhere? I lean toward the latter approach. I thought #5 CRYSTAL CLIFFS ran a great race in her US debut for Graham Motion on May 31 and she should jump forward off that performance. The only other horses I think I need are #6 MICHELINE, who ran huge at Gulfstream in the Honey Ryder Stakes on May 2, and #13 HENDY WOODS is stuck with a terrible post but has tactical speed and this is a field where she could work out a trip.

Pick 4 Use Horses: #5 CRYSTAL CLIFFS (3/1), #6 MICHELINE (8/1)
Pick 4 ‘Bigger Budget’ Horses: #1 DOMINGA (5/1), #4 IN GOOD SPIRITS (8/1), #9 EVE OF WAR (12/1), #13 HENDY WOODS (15/1)

My Ticket

Race 8: 5,6
Race 9: 4,5
Race 10: 5,6
Race 11: 5,6

Ticket Cost: $16 for $1.00 Base

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 06:49 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

June 27, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a 13-race card scheduled with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout. If the weather forecast is correct the track will probably not be fast.

Race 6

1-Southwind Avenger (5-1)-Tuned-up at YR with a sharp effort from the 8-hole and was parked so maybe Lasix is making a difference. McCarthy takes a spin and is 2-2 on a wet track.
3-Don't Let'em (3-1)-This is a fast horse who is a risky play in almost every start but is hard to leave out. Hasn't won on an off-track and hopefully will offer a decent price.
4-Reign Of Honor (7/2)-Came 3rd at TgDn versus tough company after taking a picture here. Merlander barn is hot and it's best to not overlook.

Race 7

1-Tall Dark Stranger (5/2)-Not going to single but was worthy of that type of respect. Last qualifier was razor sharp and even though 3-year-old faces older this is a world class horse. Could win and tune-up for the upcoming Pace Elims.
2-Western Joe (5-1)-#1 hasn't raced on an off-track and there is a good chance of rainy weather so will use Joe just in case. Does step-up off a win but fits with this group and should be on the engine or in the pocket.

Race 8

1-Ideal Feeling (5-1)-Won in 148.4 last week, likes the Big M and has won 2 of 4 on an off-track. Does meet tougher company but Tetrick should keep in play throughout.
3-Franco Totem N (7/2)-Liked this guy last week and he came 2nd but raced well. Could be better tonight and comes off a quick mile and raced near the lead. Best to respect, especially with this post draw and Dunn sticks.
10-Flaming Flutter N (3-1)-Takes a big bump up after being rimmed the mile and winning in 149.1 with a 26.1 last quarter. Oh, and not to forget that was the US debut. 2nd time Lasix and does not show a start on an off-track.

Race 9

2-Filibuster Hanover (9/2)-No chance in a needed start at TgDn but can be a factor here. Should be fine on a wet track and has banked >$330 in East Rutherford facing tough foes. Only 1 picture in last 19 tries but that could change tonight.
3-Trojan Banner N (8-1)-Will swing for a price, loses Tetrick to #7 but D. Miller should be up to the task and barn has been hot. Needs a big effort but did race a 148.4 mile last week with a 26.2 last quarter and the trip wasn't great.
4-Sintra (5/2)-Raced well in 1st start off the bench at this class. Has won 6 of 9 on an off-track and has 2 wins in 5 Big M starts. Looks to be a major player and Gingras will have in play.
7-Donttellmegain (5-1)-Looking for 1st win on an off-track but did hit the board in all 4 starts and has won 4 of 8 Big M races. Six-year-old has a 147.2 mark here, the question is how fast he will go in 2nd race after the re-start.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,3,4/1,2/1,3,10/2,3,4,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 06:50 AM

Jeff Siegel's Day Makers/Best Plays - 6/27/20

June 27, 2020
JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS/BEST PLAYS FOR FRIDAY, JUNE 26, 2020
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Jeff Siegel’s Day Makers and Best Plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value while Best Plays isolate likely winners and logical rolling exotic singles. Each selection also should be given strong consideration as a key in vertical plays such as exactas and trifectas. NOTE: Selections are listed chronologically according to listed post time.
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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 5TH RACE. POST TIME: 3:10 ET
2 – PIT BOSS (5-1) – Day Maker

Talented maiden is improving with racing – according to his speed figures – and with another forward move today the son of Union Rags could be set to spring a mild surprise while stretching out to 9.5 furlongs on the main track and catching a field without much speed. Exits a pair of stronger-than-par maiden races and today catches a field that looks average at best. With a healthy work tab since raced and with the switch to good speed rider M. Garcia, the W. Catalano-trained colt may find himself as the controlling speed, though his deep-closing rally when second in his debut indicates he can be effective with patient tactics as well. There’s value here to be found at or near his morning line of 5-1.

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BELMONT PARK – 5TH RACE. POST TIME: 3:37 ET
5 – FLYING FINISH (7/2) – Best Play

Walked out of the gate and gave himself an impossible task when closing well but too late in a fifth place finish in his debut at Gulfstream Park in early May vs. open maiden-special-weight foes and then was impressive on the gallop-out (he was in front of the pack at the clubhouse turn), so we know the natural talent is there. Hopefully, the son of Pioneerof the Nile leaves with his field today, and at this extended sprint trip the A. Margotta, Jr.-trained colt may be able to produce the last run. I. Ortiz got to know him in Florida, stays aboard, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’ll have a gamble both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 6TH RACE. POST TIME: 3:41 ET
6 – PARIS LIGHTS (2-1) – Best Play

Won like a future star when breaking her maiden by nearly seven lengths in her first try around two-turns over this track and distance last month and seems well-spotted to repeat on the raise in this entry-level allowance affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Curlin has a good stalking style that should keep her clear of trouble, and in a race that projects to have a better-than-average early pace she should be able to settle in mid-pack and then produce a winning kick when called up. At 2-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play at or near that price and also a rolling exotic single.

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WOODBINE – 8TH RACE. POST TIME 4:42 ET
5-ELIZABETH WAY-IRE (4-1) – Day Maker

Irish-bred mare shows up north of the border for Nassau S.-G2, a one-turn grass miler for fillies and mares that fits her like a glove. Though primarily a marathoner in her nine-race career, the daughter of Frankel appears to be most comfortable at a middle distance, and after recording two solid recent workouts for her Canadian-based trainer she should be primed for a breakout performance at what we expect will be close to her 4-1 morning line. She can be dangerous on the lead or from off the pace, so E. J. Wilson can assess the early pace flow and then pick the proper early position.

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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 8TH RACE. POST TIME: 4:43 ET
6 – CAZADERO (8/5) – Best Play

Seems certain to go lower than his morning line of 8/5 and therefore will be too short to play straight but the son of Street Sense, a visually impressive maiden debut winner over the local main track last month, looks very difficult to deny right back in this year’s edition of the Bashford Manner S.-G3 for 2-year-olds. On pure speed figures he’s a standout, and the way the S. Asmussen-trained colt lengthened out with power in the final stages in his nearly nine length romp over five furlongs makes him likely to be even more dominant at today’s six panel trip. We’ll make him a short-priced rolling exotic single.

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LOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE – 3RD RACE. POST TIME 1:58 PT
5 – DISCO BALL (9/5) – Best Play

Been away almost a year but we’re expecting this talented 3-year-old to return better than he left in this six furlong maiden sprint. In his only start last year at Del Mar, the son of Orb was forced to race under severe pressure throughout while being mired down in the extremely deep inside lane yet continued to battle back bravely in the final stages and was beaten only a half-length by subsequent stakes winner Collusion Illusion. Sharp recent drills – including a bullet :47 3/5 half mile move (fastest of 57) just six days ago – indicate this B. Koriner-trained colt is ready to roll. At his morning line of 9/5 he’s a strong win play, but if he goes lower we can still him with confidence as a rolling exotic single.

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BELMONT PARK – 8TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:04 ET
7-MEAN MARY (7/2) – Best Play

Though she doesn’t need the lead to win, this daughter of Scat Daddy seems certain to accept the role as the controlling speed in the 10-furlong turf New York S.-G2 for fillies and mares, and given that kind of trip she has an excellent opportunity to take this field gate-to-wire. The lightly-raced 4-year-old filly, a two-time graded stakes winner at Gulfstream Park this past winter, tackles tougher foes today but based on the projected race flow and speed figures that shows she’s improving with every start the G. Motion-trained filly should have every chance to extend her winning streak to four. There’s good gambling value at or near her morning line of 7/2, so let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single.

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GULFSTREAM PARK – 11TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:18 ET
3 – QUEEN NEKIA (4-1) – Day Maker

Dangerous at any distance but appearing most comfortable in one-turn races, this veteran mare should fire her best shot in the listed Added Elegance S. for older distaffers at this one mile trip. Never off the board in five career starts over the local main track and in the frame in 20 of 25 career outings, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained daughter of Harlington is as thoroughly genuine and consistent as they come, and her speed figures indicate that she’s more than good enough to regain her winning form after competing in graded stakes races in her last pair. With the switch to one of this barn’s go-to riders, S. Camacho, she should be along in time while offering good value at or near her morning line of 4-1.

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CHURCHILL DOWNS – 10TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:47 ET
6 – BY MY STANDARDS (5/2) – Best Play

Gets the acid test in this year’s renewal of the Stephen Foster S.-G2 and most likely will need a career top effort to upset Tom’s d’Etat but the son of Goldencents continues to improve with each outing and just might be able to pull it off. A winner of five of his last six starts (the defeat being his 12th place finish in the rodeo that was the Kentucky Derby), the son of Goldecents owns a superior pace-prompting style that always seems to ensure an easy, clean trip. That’s what we’re expecting today, as the B. Calhoun-trained colt is comfortably drawn outside the projected leader, Pirate’s Punch, and should be able to use that long shot as a target before being set down. If you can get close to his morning line of 5/2, he’ll be worth a gamble against the heavily-backed favorite.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 06:55 AM

June 27: Cross Country P5 Features Belmont & Churchill

June 25, 2020
ELMONT, N.Y. - The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) will partner with Churchill Downs and Thistledown to host a Cross Country Pick 5 on Saturday, June 27.

The wager, featuring all graded stakes races across the three tracks, will have live coverage of all the races in the sequence available with America's Day at the Races on Fox Sports and MSG+.

Thistledown, located in North Randall, Ohio, will kick off the sequence with the Grade 3, $500,000 Ohio Derby. The Buckeye State's premier race will be a Kentucky Derby prep race for the first time with the "Run for the Roses" being moved to September due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Carded as Race 8 at 4:22 p.m. Eastern, the Ohio Derby will award 20-8-4-2 qualifying points to the top-four finishers. Among the contenders is Storm the Court, the winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November who is winless in three starts this year, though he did finish third in the Grade 2 San Felipe in March at Santa Anita. Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen will enter a pair of contenders in Rowdy Yates and Code Runner, who ran eighth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby before defeating allowance company earlier this month at Lone Star.

Action will shift to Belmont Park for the second leg, with the Grade 2, $150,000 True North for 4-year-olds and up in Race 9 at 5:36 p.m. Grade 1-winner Promises Fulfilled returns off a more than eight month layoff as part of an eight-horse field that also includes Yorkton, a multiple graded-stakes winner on synthetic, who is seeking his first win on the main track.

For the Pick 5's third race, Churchill will take its star turn with the Grade 2, $500,000 Stephen Foster in Race 10 at 5:47 p.m. A "Win and You're In" qualifier for the Breeders' Cup Classic in November at Keeneland, the Stephen Foster, for 4-year-olds and up contesting at 1 1/8 miles, will see Tom's d'Etat, a winner of three straight, including the Grade 1 Clark in November over the same track, breaking from post 5 for trainer Al Stall, Jr. Other contenders include By My Standards, the winner of the Grade 2 New Orleans Classic and the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, and Owendale, the winner of the Blame at Churchill on May 23.

Belmont will host the fourth leg with the Grade 1, $250,000 Just a Game for fillies and mares 4-years-old and up going one mile on the Widener turf in Race 10 at 6:08 p.m. Trainer Chad Brown, seeking his fourth straight win in the race, will saddle three of the seven contenders, including the top-two morning line selections in 7-5 Uni and 8-5 Newspaperofrecord, along with Regal Glory [10-1].

Defending Champion Turf Mare Uni will make her 2020 debut in the Just a Game, having not raced since taking last year's Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita, where she became the sixth female to score a win in the race.

Newspaperofrecord arrives off a win Grade 3 Intercontinental on June 6 over the Widener turf. Other contenders include Got Stormy, Beau Recall, Valedictorian and Zofelle.

Closing out the sequence will be the Grade 3, $100,000 Regret at Churchill in Race 11 at 6:20 p.m. Two-time stakes-winning filly Micheline will be in search of her first graded stakes victory as part of a 13-horse field. Harvey's Lil Goil, winner of the Busanda in February at Aqueduct Racetrack, drew post 10.

The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents. Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is also available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country. Every week will feature a mandatory payout of the net pool.

Cross Country Pick 5 - Saturday, June 27:

Leg 1 - Thistledown, Race 8: Grade 3 Ohio Derby (4:22 p.m.)
Leg 2 - Belmont, Race 9: Grade 2 True North (5:36 p.m.)
Leg 3 - Churchill, Race 10: Grade 2 Stephen Foster (5:47 p.m.)
Leg 4 - Belmont, Race 10: Grade 1 Just a Game (6:08 p.m.)
Leg 5 - Churchill, Race 11: Grade 3 Regret (6:20 p.m.)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 07:43 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #7

#1 Royal Charlotte	Stalker for Brown got caught on the hard chase in the mud to a Lone F winner last time off the break and held well to be 2nd, should get a kinder pace scenario today, has every right to improve second-off the long break, and catches a tough to trust favorite; look out.
#5 Come Dancing	Aforementioned chalk wins this by 5 with her best, but we also haven't seen that since September, and while you can make excuses for her two (both were out of town, the last at two turns), she also didn't run an inch, and could be a bit long in the tooth; making her prove it.
#3 Chalon	Tricky read was scratched out of Royal Charlotte's race last time and will run now as a newly minted 6yo, so not only did she miss her prep, but we've seen the favorite come up a bit wanting at 6 too, so sure, on her day she's right there, but what you get here is a guess; tabbing.
Race Summary	You'll get fair value on the 1, and that's because they will bet the 5 hard and the 3 will take money too, but the pick has more upside than those two gals combined, and gives the impression she's sitting on a lifetime best run, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by singling her to kick off the late Pk5, since this could be the last time you could get her a price if she delivers like expected.

Belmont Park - Race #8

#7 Mean Mary	Streaking miss wired a pair of GP GIII's going longer and is still improving after just six starts, is in expert hands for Motion, and will either be loose on the lead or just off from the outside of what figures to be a modest pace, and yet she won't be favored either; onward and upward.
#1 Call Me Love	Deserving favorite was a huge 2nd in her US debut for a loose millionaire and multiple GI winner Rushing Fall going shorter last time, and now she stretches out to 1 1/4 miles, where's 5-for-6 in Europe, but the pick has a big tactical edge, and the Euro-bounce is in play here; second-best.
#6 Mrs Sippy	The more fancied (on the ML) of the two Motion gals hasn't been out since a poor run in the BC, though the close 2nd to Sistercharlie in the GI Flower Bowl over the course/distance was heady stuff, though her lack of speed, and this long break, won't help; runs out of room in the lane.
Race Summary	The price and the pace will both be right on the 7, who has a lot of positives in her corner, not to mention she's got every right to improve once again, as opposed to the 1 who could come back to the pack a bit, so play her to win and place, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since she looks primed to win her fourth straight, tougher competition and all.

Belmont Park - Race #9

#4 Wait For It	Longshot was a decent 4th going long in his only graded stakes try and now steps way up, while cutting back to one-turn for just the second time on his page, but he catches a group loaded with early speed, has a few figures that put him in the mix here, and, aside from the heavy chalk, there's no one else here he's supposed to be scared of; bombs away in the lane.
#7 Promises Fulfilled	Aforementioned heavy favorite is a GI winner and will be tough here, especially if he delivers even his B+ game, let alone his A one, but he hasn't run since a no-show in October, which came after a real dud in August, is now 5, and has speed on both sides, while going a tricky 6 1/2 Fs too, all at a very short price, which makes him very tough to trust; backwheel time.
#3 Wicked Trick	Veteran saw a six-race winning streak snapped when he stepped up and ran 5th as the favorite in a listed stakes last time, so he's out of his element on the class scale here, but he's another who will like the expected hot and contested pace, so while a win seems out of reach, he should be rally in the lane for what could be a nice share; eligible to spice up your exotics.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's plenty of it here, and the favorites (including the unmentioned #8 Firenze Fire) have plenty of it, and there's no guarantee the 7 fires off the long break, and sure, the pick is a real reach, but the flow suits him, and the risk-reward is there in spades too, so give him a look in all the slots, and the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's not the worst stab in the world, and a win would absolutely blow up both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 07:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#7 Amani's Eagle	Asmussen barn has done good work in these longer-distance main track maiden races over the years, and this guy might appreciate getting back on a fast main track.
#3 Ashiham	Beaten at 9-5 and 6-5 in his last two, the price might be a touch better this time around. Still, he looked really tough on paper last out and was pretty flat in the lane.
#1 Tonaltalitarian	Lack of early speed has been an issue for him, so perhaps the addition of blinkers will get him in the race a bit sooner this time around.
Race Summary	Amani's Eagle can bounce back off the modest run last time out, and something like the two-back run would probably do the trick with these.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#6 By My Standards	Has been awesome so far in his 2020 campaign, and he handled a good bunch with ease last out at Oaklawn. Tom's d'Etat will be a tougher test for him today, but he might be up to it.
#5 Tom's d'Etat	Short price is the clear one to beat with a long string of sharp races that would probably get the job done with these. He gives away a slight tactical advantage, but he always comes with a big run.
#8 Owendale	Ran much better than I thought he would going one turn last time out, and his best game is running around two turns. He's got the right kind of upside at the right time for this spot. Not impossible.
Race Summary	By My Standards has been getting better and better this season, and he made himself another perfect trip in the Oaklawn win last out. With a clean break, he'll be right behind the splits again here and can get the jump on the chalk.

Churchill Downs - Race #11

#13 Hendy Woods	Price player has done nothing wrong in a pair of wins so far, and she's probably quick enough to find a decent spot into the turn from this high draw.
#5 Crystal Cliffs	She's one of the ones in here off the very nice stateside debut for Motion last time out, and her tactical pace should keep her in great spot.
#4 In Good Spirits	Outran the 58-1 price last time out when settling for a good fourth behind a Breeders' Cup winner, and she figures to find the front end again today.
Race Summary	Hendy Woods gets tested for class today, but she fits well enough off the nice allowance win at Fair Grounds to think she can make an impact with these at a solid price.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 07:43 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#2 SUNDOWN KID	Good form cycle, proven in sire stakes, offers fair value.
#3 THE WILD CARD	Second to promising rival, will be underlay as a result.
#9 PRIVATE SCOTT	Strong rallies for a win and a second at 5/8-mile oval.
Race Summary	Sundown Kid improved in his second start back, rallying mildly into a fast pace. He hit peak form in sire stakes action last fall and could be rounding to a top effort. Play 2-3 and 2-9 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #1

#8 LETSCHASETHEDREAM N	Took the money and ran to 23rd lifetime win, take right back.
#4 SWEET ROCK	Classy 9yo was in range through a 1:22.3 third-quarter split in comeback.
#1 AINTNOBETTOR A	Third in blanket finish from post 9, gets second-time Lasix.
Race Summary	Late money poured in on Letschasethedream N and the 8-year-old poured it on with a sharp, front-end victory in 1:50.2. He has plenty of back class to handle the step up in competition. Play 8-1 and 8-4 exactas.

Hawthorne - Race #1

#2 VEGAS HIGHROLLER	Right set-up, right price in weak field, key in exotics.
#6 HARD HEADED WOMEN	Used up against odds-on repeater, goes long way in here.
#1 CENTRAL FIRECRACKER	Useful comeback, has speed and rail, barn is winless this year.
Race Summary	Vegas Highroller is 30/5-7-5 but ‘needed race’ against better on the comeback trail. She projects a good stalking trip against suspect front runners, so play 2-1 and 2-6 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 07:43 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#7 Starship Apollo	A real pro with 14 wins to his credit; takes a step down in class and can get back to winning ways.
#5 Dr Harlan	Has been in some decent sprints and could be much closer to the pace in this one; look for an improved effort.
#3 Venezuelan Warrior	Drops out a longer race at Tampa and was claimed off a win in his 1st of the year; Arriagada has him well placed today.
Race Summary	Starship Apollo has been claimed many times in his career, and the Sancat barn won win him earlier in the year. Has enough speed to be a strong factor at once and has the class to put them away.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#1 Gran Saman	Has dropped back early in some extremely fast races lately and should be able to stay within range today; has a good late move and can show up today.
#9 Go Gone Gone	Is a main track only entrant and was claimed in his last; won and was 2nd in his last two, which both came off the turf. Will be tough if rain forces a move.
#4 Sturgeon	Won an allowance race in February and takes a big drop after poor finishes in his last two; could wake up here.
Race Summary	Gran Saman can secure a good inside trip today and should find that these will come back to him in the closing yards.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#2 My Friend Flavin	Has run some good races over this strip and was 3rd last time in his 1st one here this year; can advance off that effort and is likely to improve.
#4 Combination	Steps up from $12,500, where his last three and six of his last seven; Maker barn does well off claims.
#5 Cajun Firecracker	Local stakes winner was claimed two back by Maker, dropped in class and finished 3rd; takes another drop -- not necessarily a great sign.
Race Summary	My Friend Flavin has won three over the GP strip and was 3rd off a layoff last time. He's the most likely to improve here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 07:46 AM

Cappers Access

UFC (Sat) Dan Hooker +
UFC (Sat) Brendan Allen -315
UFC (Sat) Muarice Greene -220
UFC (Sat) Phillepe Lins -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 08:55 AM

Mike McClure

GOLF

The model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.

The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright. Those who followed that advice saw a whopping +3000 return

The SportsLine Projection Model simulated the final two rounds of Travelers Championship.

The 2020 Travelers Championship projected leaderboard, according to SportsLine's model (posted 6/26/20). Odds courtesy William Hill:

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Rory McIlroy (9-2) - (15.8% sim win)
2. Xander Schauffele (9-1) - (10.4%)
3. Bryson DeChambeau (8-1) - (9.8%)
4. Phil Mickelson (9-2) - (8.2%)
5. Patrick Cantlay (28-1) - (6.7%)
6. Marc Leishman (14-1) - (5.5%)
7. Viktor Hovland (20-1) - (5.1%)
8. Jon Rahm (28-1) - (4.4%)
9. Abraham Ancer (16-1) - (4.2%)
10. Mackenzie Hughes (14-1) - (3.9%)

The rest of the field's projected finish, according to the model:

11 Will Gordon
12 Dustin Johnson
13 Brendon Todd
14 Kevin Na
15 Sergio Garcia
16 Brendan Steele
17 Kevin Streelman
18 Paul Casey
19 Zach Johnson
20 Joaquin Niemann
21 Sungjae Im
22 Patrick Reed
23 Jim Furyk
24 Louis Oosthuizen
25 Sung Kang
26 Lanto Griffin
27 Emiliano Grillo
28 Doc Redman
29 Brian Stuard
30 Troy Merritt
31 Ian Poulter
32 Shane Lowry
33 Michael Thompson
34 Kyle Stanley
35 Joel Dahmen
36 Jason Day
37 Rafa Cabrera Bello
38 Brandt Snedeker
39 Joseph Bramlett
40 Mark Hubbard
41 Tyler Duncan
42 Russell Henley
43 Jhonattan Vegas
44 Byeong Hun An
45 Lucas Glover
46 Charley Hoffman
47 Chez Reavie
48 Jordan Spieth
49 Harold Varner III
50 Scott Stallings
51 Tom Hoge
52 Si Woo Kim
53 Seung-Yul Noh
54 Ryan Armour
55 Patton Kizzire
56 Luke Donald
57 Richy Werenski
58 Wesley Bryan
59 Austin Cook
60 Aaron Wise
61 Adam Long
62 Sam Burns
63 Henrik Norlander
64 Kevin Chappell
65 Roger Sloan
66 Scott Brown
67 Hank Lebioda
68 Greg Chalmers

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 09:41 AM

Kyle Marley

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 16 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $21,000. Marley has hit 11 consecutive UFC main-event picks.

Dustin Poirier (-200) vs. Dan Hooker (+175): Poirier via TKO

Both guys fight at a pretty high pace and there is no such thing as a boring Poirier fight. I give the edge to Poirier because I think he will be the one pushing the pace, throwing more volume, and landing the harder shots. I think the early rounds could be close while Hooker is fresh, and I don't think you could favor Poirier at this price if it were a three-round fight. However, Hooker slowed down in his five-round fight against Paul Felder and, if he does that against Poirier, I think he could be in trouble. Poirier will push the pace for a hard five rounds and I favor him in the championship rounds heavily. I think Poirier would be good for at least a 48-47 decision if it hits the scorecards, but I am going to take him to get a late finish.

Mike Perry (-300) vs. Mickey Gall (+250): Gall via submission

This is going to be a striker vs. grappler matchup. I don't see Gall having any chance on the feet and, if he is stuck standing, he probably gets knocked out. I don't think Perry wants anything to do with the ground game against Gall and, if Gall gets just one takedown, that could be all he needs to lock up a submission. I think at these odds, it is a dog-or-pass fight for me and I would give Gall more than a 30 percent chance of winning that the odds suggest. I don't think Perry is the sharpest guy and it could only take one mistake for Gall to capitalize and get a finish.

Brendan Allen (-275) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+235): Allen via submission

Allen is the better wrestler and he has more power as well, He also possesses solid grappling. Daukaus might be the better striker, he just doesn't pack a lot of power. Daukaus is also a dangerous submission artist but he doesn't have great wrestling. Allen doesn't have the best top control and I could see Daukaus getting a reversal and possibly a submission. I don't know how this fight goes down, but I think it should be a lot closer to even. I will side with Allen as my pick.

Maurice Greene (-215) vs. Gian Villante (+185): Greene via decision

I think Greene is the rightful favorite and I think his size advantage is going to help him because this is Villante's first trip to heavyweight. Neither guy is great, and they don't fight at a very high pace, but this should be a back-and-forth striking battle. I think Greene will be the one landing more and probably landing harder as well. Villante is tough, so I think he survives, but I'll take Greene on the scorecards.

Luis Pena (-270) vs. Khama Worthy (+230): Pena via unanimous decision

I think Pena is probably the better fighter everywhere, but I think the ground game will be his big edge. Worthy is the more powerful striker and he is decent on the feet, so he is going to look to keep this standing and land bombs. He could possibly land more volume on the feet, but he needs this standing to win. Pena can win this fight anywhere, so I do have to pick him to get his hand raised here and it should be through the ground game if he wants to play this safe.

Philipe Lins (-115) vs. Tanner Boser (-105): Boser via decision

This is likely going to be a slow-paced striking fight. They are heavyweights, so they could land the big bomb and I would say Lins is more likely to do that. But I think we see a boring decision and it's hard to be confident in either of these guys. There is no chance I would lay juice on either of these fighters, so it's dog-or-pass no matter who that is. I am going to lean with Boser because he has more experience, and I think he will be the one with more output. This could be all it takes to win this fight.

Sean Woodson (-500) vs. Julian Erosa (+350): Woodson via TKO

Woodson looked good in his UFC debut and I think this is another solid match for him. Erosa is taking this fight on short notice and he is known for having a weak chin. I don't think Woodson has any crazy one-shot power, but I think he can put Erosa away. I think he can style on Erosa for three rounds and I don't see Erosa having a shot of winning a striking fight. Erosa needs to look to get this fight to the ground to have a shot. I have to side with Woodson and I think he could get a late stoppage.

Kay Hanson (-150) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (+130): Hanson via decision

Hanson is 15 years younger and she is the one that should be improving in between each fight. With Frey, we more so know what we are going to get at 35 years old and she is more likely to decline at this point in her career. Frey is the more experienced fighter and she is the better striker, but she is a 105-pounder and this will be her first fight at 115. Hanson is the better wrestler-grappler and I think she will be the bigger, stronger fighter so that should help her with takedowns. I think she will be able to wrestle enough to win at least two rounds.

Jordan Griffin (-120) vs. Youssef Zalal (+100): Zalal via decision

I think Zalal is the better wrestler and grappler and he impressed me in his UFC debut. He looked good on the feet as well, but I think he should and will look to mix in takedowns. Griffin is a dangerous submission artist as well and could get a sub of his own, but I think Zalal gets the better of most scrambles and grappling exchanges. I think this will be close on the feet and the smaller cage could help Griffin, but I don't think Griffin knocks him out and he isn't a volume striker.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2020, 09:50 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 6	Exacta / Quiniela / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double 6-7
Claiming $4,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 5:00P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 15 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. WOODBURN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BEGGINER: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. WOODBURN: Today is a sprint a nd the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BEBO LUCKY ROAD: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ra cing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
3	BEGGINER	10/1	7/2
2	WOODBURN	7/2	4/1
8	BEBO LUCKY ROAD	3/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	OBSIDIAN SPLENDOR	4	9/5	Front-runner	78	75	54.1	72.8	64.8
2	WOODBURN	2	7/2	Stalker	84	79	72.6	76.0	70.5
3	BEGGINER	3	10/1	Stalker	85	90	69.4	75.8	72.8
8	BEBO LUCKY ROAD	8	3/1	Stalker	92	78	66.6	70.6	64.6
6	SECRET WAGER	6	10/1	Stalker	75	63	46.8	58.6	47.1
1	STRONG COMPOSITION	1	2/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	72	33.8	65.0	57.0
5	JAPHIR	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	59	22.0	47.8	32.8
7	SEQUANA	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	6.2	38.8	24.8

Service Plays Saturday 6/27/20

Service Plays Saturday 6/27/20

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