Service Plays Saturday 4/4/20

**Benten** · 04-04-2020, 02:00 AM

Anyone have IC 3unit pick for Saturday?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:07 AM

Adam Silverstein

WrestleMania 36

WWE Championship -- Brock Lesnar (c) vs. Drew McIntyre: When WrestleMania was scheduled for Raymond James Stadium, I had McIntyre taking the title off Lesnar as a no-brainer. However, without a crowd in attendance, there is not nearly as much of a need to change the title here as McIntyre's "get over" moment will be relatively flat. As such, I think the odds here are too strong for value on McIntyre, and WWE could definitely press pause and hold off a title change. The value with Lesnar is solid as faces cannot win every match on the show, and I would lean in that direction, but this is a stay away match as there's not much to gain with McIntyre winning. No play, lean Lesnar +275

Universal Championship -- Goldberg (c) vs. Roman Reigns: This is the true no-brainer of WrestleMania 36, and the odds make it completely prohibitive from picking. Any result other than Reigns going over Goldberg for the title would be a mistake. For a company that has been so careful in rebuilding Reigns after his initial over-push was rejected by fans, it has to culminate with a title at WrestleMania -- especially at a location in which it does not have to worry about negative crowd reaction. No play, Reigns wins -2000

Raw Women's Championship -- Becky Lynch (c) vs. Shayna Baszler: Though Baszler is the clear favorite here as she has been injected into the title picture and already run through the entire Raw women's division in dominant fashion, a victory over Lynch here would be a rarity. Not only is Lynch the strongest-built woman in the company, it is not often that heels go over and take major titles off faces at WrestleMania (retaining them is another thing altogether). With this feud not succeeding to the level WWE expected and Lynch getting plus odds, I like the value with the champion retaining and extending her title run to new record heights. Play: Becky Lynch +120

Edge vs. Randy Orton (Last Man Standing): The fact that this is a stipulation match should give Orton's odds a boost because it provides the face an excuse for losing with the idea that you can stretch the storyline into the year and possibly until SummerSlam in four months. However, considering how long this angle has already gone and the fact that we don't know whether WWE will even be able to do shows after 'Mania, you have to go with Edge here. I don't like picking on such long odds, however, as they do not bring much value. No play, lean Edge -325

John Cena vs. "The Fiend" Bray Wyatt: The odds in this match are great if you believe Cena is going to go over as he always does in situations like this. Despite the fact that he has grown into a Hollywood star, Cena is not a full-time WWE performer these days, and fans already angry that The Fiend fought to a no contest with Seth Rollins (before winning the universal title) and then dropped the title to Goldberg would be infuriated if he lost this one. Similar to the aforementioned match, the value is not worth the bet. But if you have an opportunity to parlay this match with Edge-Orton, that could pay. No play, lean The Fiend -275

The Undertaker vs. AJ Styles (Boneyard Match): What is this match? What are the rules? I don't know, and I don't care. Ultimately, it is probably better that Taker-Styles has a stipulation and odd location than the other option. Taker has already lost to Lesnar and Reigns at WrestleMania; as great as Styles has been for WWE, he ain't taking down the Dead Man. Again, no pick due to the odds, but another parlay opportunity if available. No play, lean The Undertaker -600

SmackDown Women's Championship - Bayley (c) vs. Sasha Banks vs. Lacey Evans vs. Naomi vs. Tamina (Elimination Match): One of the most intriguing matches on the card (really!) there is no telling how this goes. This could be WWE's opportunity to put the title on Evans despite the fact that she's been horrid as both a heel and face. It might work out where Banks takes the title after helping eliminate Bayley early, setting up a long-term feud for SummerSlam. It could also work the other way with Bayley sacrificing Banks early in the match and ultimately retaining. Bayley retaining as a heel is how I lean out of those three options, kicking off a feud with Banks that she can ultimately win in her hometown of Boston at SummerSlam. Play: Bayley +130

NXT Women's Championship - Rhea Ripley (c) vs. Charlotte Flair: Ripley has been so well built as NXT champion that it would be a shame to see a change here, but there is reason to believe it can happen considering Flair's name value and the way she is often booked. Ultimately though, it would be a mistake for WWE to have given NXT such a large presence at Survivor Series and Royal Rumble only to turn around and have one of the brand's top titles taken by a WWE superstar. Unless there is a plan to rocket Ripley to the primary roster and have someone from NXT take the title from Flair in short order, this should be a retention. Play: Rhea Ripley -250

Seth Rollins vs. Kevin Owens: Some weeks, it seemed like this feud was never going to end, but here we are at 'Mania with Rollins and Owens finally going one-on-one after months of build. The problem is that, when this feud started, Owens was on fire. Now, Rollins is clearly doing the best work. Neither man will ultimately be hurt by a loss here, and Rollins' record at WrestleMania is sterling. Is he really going to go from beating Lesnar last year to losing a non-title match 12 months later? This is the toughest pick on the entire card, but I am again going to go against expectation here. Play: Seth Rollins +110

Raw Tag Team Championship -- Street Profits (c) vs. Andrade & Angel Garza: This should be an exciting match and has the potential to be a show stealer considering the talent and athleticism of all four men. Ultimately, the match was made with no storyline consideration because WWE seemingly was forced to pull its planned lucha libre fatal 4-way match for Andrade's U.S. championship. The Profits just won the titles, and a change would be nonsensical here. Play: The Street Profits-350

Aleister Black vs. Bobby Lashley: You do not build Black for seven months only to have him lose to Lashley, who no one in the world cares about due to WWE's shoddy booking. I repeat. You do not build Black for seven months to have him lose here. The odds are not valuable enough to take, but if you are in a pool or looking for a parlay, side with him. No play, lean Aleister Black -450

Elias vs. King Corbin: I promised to pick every match, but do I really have to? Elias still gets reaction, but no one has any good reason to care about him. Corbin has been built well as a despicable heel, but I think everyone could use a break after his never-ending feud with Reigns. With nothing else to go on, I would lean with Corbin here. However, because Rob Gronkowski is hosting WrestleMania and we already saw him get involved with Corbin on SmackDown, I would not be surprised if some shenanigans came into play here. Play: Elias -110

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:07 AM

Gjelstad and Norheim

8:30 AM ET

Moneyline Plays

Belarusian Premier League

Shakhtyor v. Neman (8:30 a.m. ET)

Money line: Shakhtyor -242

Against the spread: At +1.5, back Neman.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Shakhtyor 1, Neman 0

BATE Borisov v. Rukh Brest (10:30 a.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +425

Against the spread: At +1.5, back Rukh Brest.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: BATE Borisov 1, Rukh Brest 1

Dinamo Brest v. Slavia-Mozyr (12:30 p.m. ET)

Money line: Dinamo Brest -350

Against the spread: At +1.5, back Slavia-Mozyr.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Dinamo Brest 1, Slavia-Mozyr 0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:09 AM

Jeff Siegel's Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies - 4/04/20

April 4, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, April 4, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

*
*

RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Big Treasure; 8-Blessed Journey

Forecast: Blessed Journey isn’t one to entirely trust but the Gemologist gelding is plummeting in class to a realistic spot and may have found his friends in this $16,000 maiden claiming turf miler for older horses. Re-equipped with blinkers and switching to L. Saez, the R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding is a one-paced type without a true style, but on pure numbers he really should be able to out-grind this field. At 2-1 on the morning line, though, he doesn’t really offer much value. Big Treasure is cut from the same cloth. The Treasure Beach colt is dropping to his lowest level ever and has speed figures that make him a fit in this league, but he’s another that tends to run in the same spot, displaying no real tactical speed or much of a closing kick. But against this bunch he might get his confidence up and at 8-1 on the morning line he’s certainly worth including in rolling exotic play. Tread lightly here.
*
*

RACE 2: Post 1:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-So Long Chuck; 8-Transistor; 10-Peppi the Hunter

Forecast: Low-level claiming main track milers meet in the second race, an open scramble that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three deep – two of them are stable mates - and hope to survive and advance. Transistor nosedives in class after failing to make the course over a sloppy track in his last appearance seven weeks ago in what was his first start in 10 months. This S. Joseph, Jr. barn can be very aggressive with its claiming stock, so with the spotty pattern and the poor recent run it’s not surprising to see the son of Forty Tales show up cheap. With the switch to L. Saez we’re going to assume the three-time Gulfstream Park winner has at least one more good one left, so based mostly on price we’ll put him on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 6-1. This same barn also is represented by another class dropper, the 2-1 morning line favorite Peppi the Hunter, who was taken for $12,500 following a good runner-up effort over this track and distance in early February and today surfaces for $7,000, not typically a healthy sign but standard operating procedure for this outfit. The son of U S Ranger is dangerous when he makes the running, but there are other front-running types in the field that make his trip a bit problematic. On the positive side, a recent half mile bullet workout at Gulfstream Park West (:47 1/5, fastest of 36) catches the eye along with the switch to go-to rider T. Gaffalione (33% with this jockey/trainer combo). The fly in the ointment with regards to the projected pace flow of the race is So Long Chuck, a four-time winner over the local main track and dropping to his lowest level ever. The Adios Charlie gelding is reunited with “win rider” E. Jaramillo, stretches out from seven furlongs, and has the kind of early zip that could make things sticky for Peppi the Hunter. ‘Chuck also has the second-off-the-layoff angle for a barn that has superior stats (29%) with this maneuver.
*
*

RACE 3: Post 1:45 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Long Story Short; 8-Toonie Loonie; 9-So Dar; 11-Bella Gianna

Forecast: Today’s third race is a messy bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for older fillies and mares. We’ll go four deep while tossing in some big prices, but otherwise sit it out. So Dear is dropping all the way down from the maiden $50,000 level and actually did finish second in maiden special weight company in her debut last summer, so while her recent form looks suspect she’s never faced such weak company and could quickly find her confidence. She also has the route-to-sprint angle that we like and speed figures that look very competitive. Toonie Loonie, in the frame in her last pair and shortening up a half-furlong while switching to E. Jaramillo, probably is the one to fear most. She seems comfortable in her current role as a dirt sprinter and has numbers that are reasonable close to par for this level. You should also include a couple of long shots, Bella Giana (12-1) and Long Story Short (20-1). The former may be the quickest of the quick and with the return to the main track could get loose early and forget to stop, while the latter, in her third start off a layoff, has some back speed figures that make her competitive, gets off the rail, and could find herself within range if she leaves better today than she did last time out.
*
*

RACE 4: Post 2:15 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Mighty Fast; 5-W W Archie; 9-War Act

Forecast: W. W Archie failed to draw in yesterday in a maiden $12,500 affair but shows up here for $16,000 in an equally soft spot. The son of Archarcharch has an improving pattern (his speed figure rose considerably between his first and second start) and he was more than five lengths clear of the rest when a reasonable third over this track and distance three weeks ago. On pure numbers, he’s a bit better than Mighty Fast, who, like W. W. Archie, will be making his third career start and also appears to be progressing with experience. However, Fast’s connections (Saez, Delgado) inspire much more confidence than ‘Archie’s and at 6-1 on the morning line he’ll probably wind up being a better price, so while we’ll include both in our rolling exotics we’ll give slight preference on top to Mighty Fast. The most dangerous of the closing types may be War Act, and at this extended sprint trip he could produce the last run from his outside draw. While lacking tactical speed, his numbers have gradually risen with each of his five career starts, though the barn has yet to win a race this year. Toss him in on a ticket or two.
*
*

RACE 5: Post 2:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Little Bella; 4-Domineer; 9-Moon Eyes

Forecast: This grass grab bag has a number of possibilities and is yet another race that requires extended coverage in rolling exotic play. Little Bella makes a barn switch to J. Orseno, picks up J. Rosario, and draws the fence in this restricted (nw-2) $12,500 dash for fillies and mare. Fresh from a solid runner-up performance over this course and distance last month, the daughter of Paddy O’Prado should be capable of producing the last run, though her morning line of 2-1 is a bit problematic. Domineer will be equipped with blinkers for the first time and gets a major jockey change to E. Jaramillo, but both of her turf tries were below standard (albeit when facing much tougher) and the barn has had a slow year so far. You have to use her at 8-1 on the morning line. Moon Eyes was over-bet at 3/5 when fourth in the same race Little Bella exits – her second straight defeat at odds-on - and her lack of tactical speed in these abbreviated turf sprints has rendered her untrustworthy. However, she switches to L. Saez and will be running on late, so we suppose there’s a chance she could clunk up and win.
*
*

RACE 6: Post 3:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Bardot; 7-Running Girl; 8-Kozy Dreams

Forecast: Here’s another maiden claimer, a $25,000 main track extended sprint for restricted to 3-year-old fillies. The best of the experienced runners would seem to be Kozy Dreams, a first-off-the-claim play from a barn that doesn’t have great stats with this angle. However, she’s finished in the money in three of four career starts and most recently was second, nearly six lengths clear of the rest, at this level last month with career top speed figure. She looks like a play at or near her morning line of 6-1. The T. Pletcher first-time starter Bardot, likely to get plenty of play, doesn’t have a great pattern. The daughter of Candy Ride brought $97,000 as a weanling and shows up cheap, hardly a sign of confidence, and a video of a mid-February workout was something less than inspiring - view video. Yet, how good does she really have to be to act with group? Running Girl debuts for K. O’Connell, a very competent trainer with first-timers, and as a daughter of Run Away and Hide she has a right to at least have some early speed. Throw her in at 12-1 on the morning line.
*
*

RACE 7: Post 3:47 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Dark Ages; 7-Im the Captain Now; 10-Mystical Moon

Forecast: Dark Ages is intriguing at 6-1 on the morning line in this restricted (nw-3) $12,500 claiming turf miler. Exiting a pair of rapid turf sprints, breaking from the rail, and switching to J. Rosario, the son of J. P.’s Gusto could easily find himself as the controlling speed. The barn has superior stats with the sprint-to-route angle and sharp half mile breeze around dogs on turf last week should have him right on edge. Im the Captain Now, beaten a head in a recent restricted (nw-3) $20,000 middle distance turf affair last month, shows up for $12,500 today, his fourth straight class drop, hardly a healthy sign. The B. Tagg-trained gelding is winless in almost two year so perhaps the connections are simply getting realistic with the once-promising gelding, who had enough talent to win an allowance at Saratoga in the summer of 2018. In his good days, he was a deep closing mini-marathoner, so at this one mile trip the son of Trappe Shot may need some good fortune. Mystical Moon is drawn farther outside than we’d prefer but after winning a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller over this course and distance last month with a competitive number the B. Lynch-trained gelding, who was entered and scratched out of a tougher race yesterday, may have a bit of a look if he can negotiate a decent trip.
*
*

RACE 8: Post 4:18 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Ghostly Beauty; 8-Yolanda’s Pride

Forecast: Ghostly Beauty was a somewhat unlucky loser when worn down by Lookinlikeaqueen in a similar state-bred first-level allowance turf miler last month. She found herself pressing the pace 3-wide without cover every step of the way, and then, after striking the front in mid-stretch, couldn’t quite hold off the late-runner and had to settle for second, beaten less than a length. She’s all but assured of a ground-saving trip from her 2-hole post today, switches to L. Saez (who jumps off ‘Queen to ride her) and sports a bullet half mile main track breeze (:46 3/5, fastest of 39) since raced. In projecting the race flow, we envision ‘Beauty sitting just behind the likely pacesetter Yolanda’s Pride and then have every chance to exert her superiority from the quarter pole home. While the main push will go to Ghostly Beauty, ‘Pride should be included on a ticket or two as a saver. The lightly-raced 3-year-old filly was fairly convincing with a gate-to-wire score over this course and distance in a starter optional claimer last month and today picks up J. Rosario. Similar front-running tactics are sure to be employed, and if not respected the S. Klesaris-trained filly could take this field a long way.
*
*

RACE 9: Post 4:49 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Inter Miami; 6-Silverly Enough

Forecast: Silverly Enough shortens to his preferred trip, switches to L. Saez, and seems well-placed for a snap back performance after failing at 6/5 when pressing the pace and fading at one-turn mile against a similar starter optional claiming field last month. He shows two sprint races among the five in his chart that show speed figures good enough to beat this field, so we’ll put him on top but as a single. Inter Miami, overmatched and out of his element when last of 12 two-turning on grass in the Cutler Bay Stakes last week, is wheeled back quickly and realistically spotted. Low profile connections notwithstanding, the son of Big Drama has a look off his game state-bred win over this track and distance two runs back. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics and then press a bit with Silverly Enough on top.
*
*

RACE 10: Post 5:20 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-First Premio; 8-Class and Cash; 9-Penalty; 11-Halladay

Forecast: This is a race loaded with speed, so we’re looking at the stalkers/closers to have an edge in a highly-competitive three-other-than grass miler for older horses. Penalty is starting to get very good as he matures and is better than his morning line of 12-1 gives him credit for. The lightly-raced (just 10 starts) 5-year-old son of Blame was especially sharp wearing down next-out winner Largent in a fast, highly rated affair over this course and distance in late February and sports a strong, steady work tab since, including a recent bullet half mile drill (:49 2/5, fastest of nine) just a few days ago. E. Zayas stays aboard and will give this W. Mott-trained horse the patient ride he requires. First Premio, exiting a series of five stakes races, most recently when fifth beaten just a length in the Shadow Turf Mile-G1 last fall, has a history of firing fresh and is strictly the one to beat. That said, the M. Casse-trained 6-year-old has been less than impressive in his workouts leading up to this race - view video - however, that might be nothing more than par for the course for him. We’ll try to beat him but we have to use him. Tropical Park Derby winner Halladay, a self-caused troubled fourth in the Tampa Bay S.-G3 in early February, has form on his best day that puts him right there but T. Pletcher-trained son of War Front must leave from the far outside and will need luck to secure any kind of trip. We might use him as a saver on a ticket or two but nothing more. Class and Cash, victorious 13 races from 35 lifetime outings including four over the local lawn but winless since September of 2018, switches to J. Rosario and should settle in just behind the leaders and have dead aim entering the lane. He’s eight years old now and probably has a lost a step but given the connections he’s worth tossing in somewhere.
*
*

RACE 11: Post 5:52 ET. Grade:
Use: 3-I’ll Fight Dempsey; 4-Sonneman

Forecast: I’ll Fight Dempsey was quite impressive winning his debut sprinting from the rail with a big speed figure in late February and had the form franked when runner-up Candy Machine came back to break his maiden yesterday. Three successive bullet workouts since that race gives strong indication that the son of Into Mischief is prepared to step forward, and while there may be other speed in the field we’re expecting to see the T. Pletcher-trained colt employ similar gate-to-wire tactics right back. As a back-up, you should definitely consider the come-backing Sonneman, a maiden winner with a strong number last fall at Belmont Park and making his sophomore debut with a healthy series of workouts and a pedigree (Curlin) that should guarantee that he’ll be better as a 3-year-old than he was at two. Not a speed type and probably needing more ground than seven furlongs, the M. Hennig-trained colt picks up J. Rosario and could be dangerous if the pace flow turns up hot and contested.
*
*

RACE 12: Post 6:24 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Avenida Manana; 9-Trilby; 12-Paint the Corners

Forecast: The finale is a grass miler for $16,000 claiming fillies and mares. We’ll approach this race with caution. Avenida Manana probably doesn’t offer a whole lot of value at 9/5 on the morning line but she certainly can win in her first start off a claim for R. Hess, Jr. A winner of her last three by an aggregate margin of less than a length, the daughter of Street Boss gets extra points for knowing where the wire is and has the ideal stalking style that should produce a comfortable pace-stalking trip. The fact that she’s not being protected on the raise is of mild concern and it’s somewhat surprising that despite her record she’s only been claimed the one time out of the six races she’s competed for a tag. We suspect there’s a reason. Paint the Corners and Trilby, four-five finishers in a similar affair here last month, also have a right to run well, as both are four-time winners over the local turf course. Unlike Avenida Manana, Trilby has been extremely popular at the claim box, having changed hands in each of her last four starts, and has been fairly consistent, though her numbers are a bit soft. Paint the Corners, stuck way out in the 12-hole, switches to E. Jaramillo and may have enough tactical speed to get over and secure a decent spot, but it’s no slam dunk. At 10-1 on the morning line she’s worth using on a ticket or two.
*

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:11 AM

Saturday, April 4, 2020: Spot Plays & Previews

April 2, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian
The show goes on this weekend and, as of Thursday afternoon, Saturday’s docket is still scheduled to include racing from Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Tampa Bay, Remington and Los Alamitos. Additionally, international tracks in Australia, Hong Kong and Japan are still in action.

I guess that’s a small morsel of good news for those looking to get a bet in. Globally, these are trying and unprecedented times and I applaud the men and women working tirelessly to ensure the safety and wellbeing of our equine and human athletes, as well as track employees and industry stakeholders. While a small blip on the radar, hopefully horse racing is able to provide an ounce of normalcy and perhaps a bit of a distraction for you this weekend.

There are some nice races around the world for you to play on Saturday. Here’s a look at some horses that caught my eye.

GULFSTREAM PARK

A strong 12-race card kicks off at 12:45PM ET and for those jumping into the Rainbow 6, #7 IM THE CAPTAIN NOW (3/1) in the kickoff leg (Race 7) looks like a standout. He’s going to rely on a quick pace, so you may want to slightly adjust your plays if either of the speed players - #2 CROW MOON or #9 RODDICK – opt out.

Probably the best race on the card, from a betting perspective at least, is the 10th. This is essentially a stakes race masquerading as an allowance, with stakes winners like #3 FIRST PREMIO (7/2), #8 CLASS AND CASH (4/1) #11 HALLADAY (6/1) and #2 KROY (6/1) all entered. FIRST PREMIO is the horse to watch, but he’s coming off a five-month layoff and could be rusty. #9 PENALTY is worth a big look at 12/1 odds. He upset an allowance race on February 22 at odds of 29/1 against the highly-regarded Largent and is a fair-priced alternative to FIRST PREMIO.

Finally, in Race 11, I’ll put a small bet on #7 MASTERDAY at anything close to his 8/1 ML. I foresee a fast pace in here and I love getting MASTERDAY on the cut-back, coming off a 6th in the G2 Fountain of Youth. He ended up chasing a loose leader that day (Ete Indien) and consider that, while he was beaten 13-lengths for the win, he only missed second by 4 1/2-lengths.

OAKLAWN PARK

Oaklawn’s 10-race card gets underway at 2:05PM ET and they’re home to a very strong stakes race on Saturday – the $100,000 Purple Martin Stakes. I think #8 FRANK’S ROCKETTE (5/2) is a standout here. She won the ungraded Any Limit Stakes at Gulfstream on February 22 by 7-lengths and drew perfectly in here. With plenty of speed to her inside, Martin Garcia should be able to make the call to send or rate on the fly. #1 KIMARI returns to the dirt for the first time since her smashing 15-length Keeneland debut win last April and attracts Mike Smith to ride. I’ll let her take money and would be willing to let her beat me. She’ll either have to send hard from the inside or will be taking dirt to the face for the first time.

My other Oaklawn Spot Play is #6 BIGGS (6/1) in Race 2. This Arkansas-bred son of Midshipman has done nothing in three career starts but this is his third start off the layoff and I would expect Fernando De La Cruz to send from the start and play ‘catch me if you can.’ Brad Cox has been strong at the meet (25%) and 6/1 may be a bit of a dream. He was 4/5 in a sprint race at this level on February 20.

SHA TIN (HONG KONG)

Admittedly, the racing from Hong Kong gets underway late on Saturday night. First post is after midnight – 12:45AM ET – on the East Coast. But maybe consider placing a few bets before turning off the lights and hitting the pillow?

They’ve got two really nice stakes races at Sha Tin on Saturday – the G2 Chairman’s Trophy and the G2 Sprint Cup. The former pits #1 BEAUTY GENERATION (2017-18 Hong Kong Horse of the Year) against #2 WAIKUKU. The Sprint Cup features Hong Kong Sprint third-place finishers #8 AETHERO and some other crack racehorses.

That’s all I have for this weekend. Please stay at home, stay safe and trust Xpressbet and 1/ST BET to get your bets in. We’ve got you covered for betting, watching and handicapping the races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:13 AM

April 2, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
$100,000 PURPLE MARTIN STAKES AT OAKLAWN
Saturday, April 4, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The national racing schedule has contracted greatly in recent weeks, but quality cards at Gulfstream Park, Golden Gate Fields, Tampa Bay Downs and Oaklawn Park are on the docket for Saturday. In the stakes ranks, the offerings are even less in number. But Oaklawn's Purple Martin for 3-year-old filly sprinters has a quality about it that deserves attention no matter the week or schedule.

Field Depth:
Five of the 10 runners are listed stakes winners, while FRANK'S ROCKETTE is Grade 1-placed, LADY GLAMOUR is Grade 2-placed and KISS THE GIRL has placed at the Grade 3 level. FRANK'S ROCKETTE, KIMARI and LADY GLAMOUR have faced what appear the strongest competition in the field.

Pace:
No doubt a strong pace can be projected in this 6-furlong dash. EDGEWAY, BOOTYTAMA, FLAT OUT SPEED and RING LEADER all are drawn next to one another in the gate and want to be on or near the front. FRANK'S ROCKETTE also figures to be forward, and pace-versatile KIMARI may have to send from the rail post draw. She who can finish will decide this one.

Our Eyes:
KIMARI makes her 3-year-old return after a unique freshman year that saw her debut at Keeneland in the Spring, run second in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, win stakes at Saratoga and Keeneland, and finish a rallying fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint against the boys. She's back on the dirt for the first time since her April 25, 2019 Keeneland baby dash unveiling, which she won by a whopping 15 lengths. So we know she can 'dirt' and we know she can fire fresh. Sire Munnings has a superb record with his Oaklawn performers, so she's bred to handle this road trip as well as she has all her others. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is listed to ride for Wesley Ward. The rail draw could be tricky, but KIMARI's pace versatility may work in her favor, albeit her rallying scores came on turf with far less abrasive kick-back than dirt. That could be a new challenge.

FRANK'S ROCKETTE will vie for favoritism with KIMARI off her smashing 7-length win in the Any Limit overnight stakes at Gulfstream. The Into Mischief filly earned a powerful 104 BRIS late pace figure in that 6-furlong sprint that could come in handy in this spot with so much other pace. She was runner-up in the G1 Frizette, G1 Spinaway and G2 Adirondack last year on the NYRA circuit. She's won at Churchill and Gulfstream, so her game obviously travels for trainer Bill Mott. Martin Garcia has been riding well at OP in his initial local season and takes the call for the first time.

LADY GLAMOUR also ships in for her first Oaklawn appearance, now under the care of veteran trainer Kenny Smith. She has wintered in Kentucky for Larry Demeritte after finishing third in the G2 Golden Rod at Churchill in November. She started her career 2-for-3 sprinting, so the distance likely won't be too short for her. She's freshened, but has only 4 workouts on paper for this. The pace likely has to melt completely down for her to get all of it, but underneath in the exotics is not a wild forecast.

RING LEADER and WASABI GIRL come into the Purple Martin representing the Oaklawn stakes ranks. RING LEADER went 3-for-3 around 1 turn, including the Dixie Belle Stakes, before tiring in her route bid in the G3 Honeybee. That effort was no shame to her chances here and she's worked a bullet half-mile since then for Mac Robertson. WASABI GIRL was a distant third in the Dixie Belle behind RING LEADER and will try to improve in her second-off-the-layoff form cycle for Steve Asmussen. Even with a more difficult pace projection, my preference of this pair stays with RING LEADER.

EDGEWAY, LEXI ON THE MOVE and KISS THE GIRL are the Oaklawn meet class risers into the stakes ranks. EDGEWAY was as impressive as any maiden at the meet when she debuted Feb. 28. The filly by Competitive Edge rocketed 6 furlongs in 1:09 and drew off by 5 lengths, putting more than 14 lengths on the third-place finisher. John Sadler appears to have a good one here, and his barn has done much better at Oaklawn as the meet has progressed, going 5 for his last 21 after a 1-for-20 start, according to the Betmix database. LEXI ON THE MOVE (Robertino Diodoro) and KISS THE GIRL (Steve Asmussen) exit allowance wins for dominant local barns. But neither had the eye-catching performance of EDGEWAY, the preferred member of this trio.

FLAT OUT SPEED and BOOTYTAMA round out the field as the X-factors. Both are 3-for-3 and minor stakes winners on lesser circuits. FLAT OUT SPEED dominated Prairie Meadows last summer and makes her 3YO return. BOOTYTAMA obliterated everything in sight at Turf Paradise from last spring until her Feb. 26 allowance return win by 10 lengths. Both are very difficult reads against this level of competition. But as projected front-runners, the pace shape will challenge them beyond the class question.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: FRANK'S ROCKETTE has not missed an exacta in 5 starts over 4 different tracks.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: Don't see any massive longshots here, but EDGEWAY was so good in her debut that she could play with these right away.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $70 exacta FRANK'S ROCKETTE over EDGEWAY. $30 exacta EDGEWAY over FRANK'S ROCKETTE.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:14 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#7 Midnight Blue Note	The chalk just missed at the level last time, with a big figure, now meets a decidedly weaker crew, and should get enough speed to set him up as well; too tough for these.
#6 Notacatbutacard	Stalker was 3rd at the level last time, albeit in a much slower race than the chalk, but he's another who should like the expected aggressive race flow; logical EX partner.
#3 Philosophy	GP invader dueled and beat N3L foes, so he's the speed of the speed, but getting pressed, kicking clear, and holding off the top-2 on the rise seems dicey; comes unglued late.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 7 but that 5-2 ML seems like an overlay, as he's consistently running much better races than anyone else here, and the pace will aid him too, so make an aggressive win and place bet if you get 2-1 or better, though you can get some added value by singling him in the early Pk5/Pk4, as he looks primed to beat up on this modest group.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#1 Gravitas	Thomas firster (12%) was a pricey 290k son of 35k sire Blame as a 2yo-in-training, drew perfectly, has worked forwardly for this, doesn't appear to meet any world beaters, and note Centeno is 6-for-13 riding for this sharp barn; thinking he can run.
#3 U S Delta Force	Shug runner sped off then tired badly on debut sprinting at Belmont in September but hasn't been seen since, which is a worry, and the blinkers go on too, so he could be really amped up early, which could hurt him trying two turns; tread lightly.
#5 Accesible	Well-bred son of Tapit was 9th in his lone turf start, though it was a pretty solid race for the level, and the dirt run last time was a big improvement, so with just two starts, and the turf run behind him, he's eligible to be a player here; seems in the mix.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 1, as you'd like to see him live and taking money if he's ready, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, and especially to end the early Pk5/Pk4, along with the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since he won't ave to be a freak to win this on debut, for a barn that has done nothing but impress with limited stock over the past three years.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8

#9 Enduring Honor	Versatile sort got run off his feet a bit early last time behind a hot pace but rallied nicely to be 2nd with a big figure, should be closer early here, as the pace looks moderate, and he's really stepped up his game since getting back to the turf; look out.
#8 Quality Step	Dropper has been running well against better and has the tactical speed to sit the right kind of trip here, especially after being close to crazy splits last time yet still holding well, which says he may be able to blow this open off the turn; the one to beat.
#12 Honest to Goodness	Heavy hitter won for 16k two-back then was in too tough in the allowance ranks last time, so the drop to 10k will work, as will ll three of his last runs, but this wide draw did him no favors, especially if you're taking this 9-2 ML; using underneath only.
Race Summary	We end the late Pk5/Pk4 in a real scramble, where you could go several different ways, which means the 9 could really fall through the wagering cracks, even though his form of late stacks up nicely here, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to end both Pks, as he's got a big shot, and yet getting there first would add a ton of value to both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:14 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

#5 Vigilantes Way	Showed a bit of tracking pace before giving way in the debut, but she returns with Lasix and a forward set of drills.
#6 Estilo Talentoso	The clear one to beat, but she has taken a couple of really huge steps forward in her last two races. Obviously a repeat of her last wins this, but I'm not entirely sold she's running back to it.
#3 Red Venus	Has an even sort of style late in her races, but that might play well enough here to land her a spot in the gimmicks.
Race Summary	Vigilantes Way will need a major step forward, but she may be sitting on one in her 3yo debut, while the ML favorite drawn outside of her may be sitting on a step back.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#3 U S Delta Force	Faded late in the route debut on the grass, and perhaps he needed some time to mature into this 3yo season. Blinkers go on while expecting something better.
#1 Gravitas	Debuts for a team that is very capable with firsters in these types of situations, and he should be able to get a decent ground-saving trip from the fence.
#7 Dom Caetano	Bred to get this long turf trip, he'll go first out for a barn that occasionally has success with these types. Should be the right price.
Race Summary	U S Delta Force owns enough positional pace to get into a good spot in the early going, and the addition of blinkers may help the cause in this 3yo debut.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8

#8 Quality Step	Figures for a great trip while getting first run on the stretchout speed drawn on the rail, and this guy's recent races are all competitive here. Single?
#1 Red Hot Looks	Cheap speed or no, he's almost sure to find the front and has handled the turf in the past. Wouldn't be a shock to see him winging it up top and trying to stick around for a piece.
#4 Completely Bonkers	Tends to be a bit one-paced in the final stages, but he's still capable of something a bit better than he showed last time out.
Race Summary	Quality Step looks plenty interesting, and he'd be a big play for me at something like the 4/1 ML price. He's in line for a dreamy trip off a likely loose leader, and his running lines are among the best in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 08:15 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#3 So Long Chuck	Loves it out front, takes a class drop and stretches out; gets courageous when clear early and will have a huge chance to get that scenario today.
#5 Millionaire Runner	Has an eye-catching late move and would be the one to benefit most from a fast pace; the $1K yearling has won more than $150K and fits here.
#6 Dexter Road	Was on the board in his last two and has improve since moving over to the main track; chance for a piece of it at a good price.
Race Summary	So Long Chuck is extremely rapid, can cut out the fractions and shines when he's alone on the front end.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#1 Lady Panda	Was up in time for a maiden win last time when she came home in :46 and change for the last half-mile and is a legit threat to win right back.
#3 Lookinlikeaqueen	Won three of her last five, including her latest; make her 1st off the claim for Spatz stable.
#2 Ghostly Beauty	Was close-up throughout and just missed last time; will be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary	Lady Panda can stalk a quick pace and should be able to make a strong late run; might be overlooked.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#2 Uncaptured King	Was outrun in a stakes race last time but had solid winning performances in two leading up to that; one to hold off.
#1 Mobeatyabad	Romped last time out at Tampa and takes on tougher here; only dirt start was impressive.
#5 Inter Miami	Held on for a nose win the last time he was on the dirt; perfect in two tries at this 6F distance.
Race Summary	Uncaptured King will follow a rapid pace and the leaders will likely come back to him; might have some healthy odds.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 10:11 AM

Gjelstad and Norheim, founders of the Trademate Sports model

The model has revealed strong money line picks.

Nicaragua Primera Division

Saturday, April 4

Deportivo Ocotal v. Las Sabanas (6 p.m. ET)

Money line: Deportivo Ocotal -175

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Deportivo Ocotal.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Deportivo Ocotal 1, Las Sabanas 0

Real Madriz v. Managua (6 p.m. ET)

Money line: Managua -175

Against the spread: At -0.5, back Managua.

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Managua 1, Real Madriz 0

Juventus Managua v. Diriangen (8 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +225

Against the spread: At +0.5, back Diriangen.

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Juventus Managua 2, Diriangen 2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 10:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

Golden Gate Fields - Race 2	$1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double / $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) / $1 Rolling Super High Five
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 1:14P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. LEONILLA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LEONILLA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CARRIE'S SUCCESS: Today is a sprin t and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. IXTAPA'S FINEST: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fi gure at the distance/surface. SIERRA SUNRISE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	LEONILLA	12/1	3/1
4	CARRIE'S SUCCESS	9/5	8/1
5	IXTAPA'S FINEST	8/1	9/1
1	SIERRA SUNRISE	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	IXTAPA'S FINEST	5	8/1	Front-runner	83	82	64.6	76.2	70.2
7	LEONILLA	7	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	86	75.0	78.8	73.8
6	AWESOME AMANDA	6	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	82	78	59.0	71.2	59.2
1	SIERRA SUNRISE	1	5/2	Trailer	83	83	58.0	76.0	66.0
4	CARRIE'S SUCCESS	4	9/5	Trailer	85	80	57.2	75.0	69.0
3	ALL TEA ALL SHADE	3	6/1	Trailer	80	70	41.4	73.6	66.1
2	GIRLSINTHEOFFICE	2	10/1	Trailer	87	82	0.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 10:14 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

Gulfstream Park - Race 2	$1 Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Super Hi 5 / $.50 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 1:15P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * PEPPI THE HUNTER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has the h ighest TrackMaster Power Rating. DIFFERENTIAL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SO LONG CHUCK: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. TRANSISTOR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fig ure at the distance/surface.
10	PEPPI THE HUNTER	2/1	5/1
9	DIFFERENTIAL	12/1	6/1
3	SO LONG CHUCK	7/2	6/1
8	TRANSISTOR	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	SO LONG CHUCK	3	7/2	Front-runner	100	94	88.6	82.8	73.8
10	PEPPI THE HUNTER	10	2/1	Front-runner	97	90	87.2	91.0	86.0
9	DIFFERENTIAL	9	12/1	Front-runner	97	94	81.6	90.2	80.2
2	GEMOLOGISTER	2	20/1	Stalker	91	88	90.1	69.2	54.2
6	DEXTER ROAD	6	12/1	Stalker	94	82	63.4	79.0	74.5
1	TWO STEP SLEW	1	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	86	63.6	66.6	50.6
8	TRANSISTOR	8	6/1	Trailer	99	85	63.4	92.2	81.2
5	MILLIONAIRE RUNNER	5	9/2	Trailer	89	83	58.2	74.8	63.8
7	SUMMER MISCHIEF	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	90	87	79.8	61.0	49.0
4	HE'S SMOKIN HOT	4	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	79	60.6	74.6	59.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 10:14 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Oaklawn Park - Race #3 - Post: 2:05pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,200 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#4 PLATINUM NIGHTS (ML=8/1)
#3 FIREHORN (ML=10/1)
#10 GRAB THE MUNNY (ML=7/2)
#9 SWITHER'S SHORTCUT (ML=5/1)

PLATINUM NIGHTS - Looking at today's class rating, this racer is meeting an easier group than last time around the track at Oaklawn Park. Have to like the way Villafranco has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. FIREHORN - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the vacation and should be fit. This mount is a hot commodity. Claimed in his last two races. Outside the top 3 finish in the last race at Oaklawn Park was better than it looked on paper. He improved position in the homestretch and never gave up. GRAB THE MUNNY - After the event aboard this equine on Mar 15th, the jockey is going to be in tune with the gelding much better. This gelding is in nice physical condition, having run a strong race on March 15th, finishing second. SWITHER'S SHORTCUT - This equine didn't run well on the mud in his last race at Oaklawn Park. You should ignore that effort.

Vulnerable Contenders: #11 CALCULATING KING (ML=4/1), #2 ZEROED IN (ML=9/2), #13 BUCK DUANE (ML=6/1),

CALCULATING KING - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been sharp in short distance events recently. This less than sharp equine ran a quite unimpressive speed rating in the last race. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's event running that figure. ZEROED IN - Speed kills. Plenty of speed in this event compromises this animal's chances. BUCK DUANE - This gelding hasn't had any in the money efforts in sprint contests in the last sixty days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 PLATINUM NIGHTS to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-04-2020, 10:15 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 80

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 TAPITHA BONITA 4/1
# 4 COALINGA HILLS 1/1
# 5 ANA LISA 3/1

TAPITHA BONITA has a respectable shot to take this race. Has been travelling in the most competitive company of the group lately. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. This conditioner has the best return on investment in this field with entries travelling at this distance and surface. COALINGA HILLS - She has been travelling very well lately while recording strong speed figures. She has put up competitive figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well versus this field. ANA LISA - This entrant has been consistently racing well as of late. With a solid 71 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

Service Plays Saturday 4/4/20

Service Plays Saturday 4/4/20

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment