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NATIONAL SPORTS SERVICE
4* Florida A&M-5 NCAABB
3* Clemson/LSU UNDER 67.5 NCAAFB
PRIMETIME SPORTS PICKS
4 Unit --> Florida A&M -5 over Coppin St. (NCAAB)
3 Unit --> Clemson/L.S.U. UNDER 67.5 (NFL)
3 Unit --> Montana -6 over Portland St. (NCAAB)
Brad Powers | CFB Side - Monday, Jan 13 2020 8:00PM
283 Clemson 5.0(-110) William Hill vs 284 LSU single-dime bet
Analysis: 1-star (283) Clemson +5 over LSU. 8:00pm ET. If you only had to make one bet tonight. This would be it.
We just feel this is a classic overreaction to what the public just saw last. Before the semifinals one sports book at Clemson -1, one book had LSU -1. Our power ratings had the game at “Pick” (Clemson 103.5, LSU 101) after you give LSU 2.5-points of HFA for playing in the Super Dome. We downgraded Clemson 1-point for their performance against Ohio St even though they won and covered. On the other side, we upgraded LSU 2-points for crushing Oklahoma (our pure power ratings now have LSU -3). Even going through the position-by-position breakdown we can only get LSU to -3.5. Therefore we feel there is value on Clemson here. Remarkably, there’s been value on them all season as Clemson is two FG’s away from being 13-1 ATS! Remember, Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney in the post-season since 2012 is 9-2 SU (+12.1 ppg) and 10-1 ATS (+14.2 ppg) with Clemson being an underdog in 9 of those 11 games. While LSU QB Joe Burrow has deservedly gotten all the love from the media note that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has 22-0 TD-INT ratio since October 26th.The underdog has covered in 6 straight Championship games and this is the longest gap in between the semifinals and the championship game in the 6-year history of the CFB Playoff. Advantage Clemson in that they were in that war vs Ohio State.
Small Lean (283/284) Clemson/LSU UNDER 67.5. 8:00pm ET. Bigger, sharper money came in on UNDER today.
Props: (Bet these as leans):
Trevor Lawrence OVER 21.5 (-120) completions.
Will Clemson RB Travis Etienne score a TD? Yes -300...He's scored in 11 straight games. I think this line should be -500.
Longest TD of game: OVER 62.5 yards.
Longest completion by Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence OVER 50.5 Yards. Lawrence is 9-5 to the OVER at this number this season including 4 straight games with at least one 51-yard pass. This coincides with the prop above.
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