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FINNs AFC WILDCARD PRIVATE PLAY Game: (141) Buffalo Bills at (142) Houston Texans Date/Time: Jan 4 2020 4:35 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Under 44.0 (-108)
Love getting points with the better defense. Buffalo's D allowed the second-fewest points per game, and ranks #3 in fewest yards allowed. Houston's D allowed the fourth-most passing yards this season, and allowed the fifth-most yards per game.
Houston actually has a negative point differential on the season (-7), while Buffalo is +55.
The Texans have the better QB in Deshaun Watson, but Buffalo's Josh Allen is more than capable of getting the job done against this Texans defense.
I also like Bills head coach Sean McDermott over Houston's Bill O'Brien.
Put a little on the money line, too.
PLAY BUFFALO.
Game: (143) Tennessee Titans at (144) New England Patriots Date/Time: Jan 4 2020 8:15 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Westgate Play Rating: 3% Play: New England Patriots -5.0 (-110)
The Patriots have not looked dominant in quite some time. The offense struggles much of the time. New England just lost at home to Miami as double-digit chalk last Sunday, while the Titans rolled the Texans in Houston. Tennessee has looked very tough since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB. Add it all up, and many bettors like the Titans. But last week's loss just adds fuel to the fire for a Patriots side that hasn't had to play on Wild Card weekend in ten years. The experience edge Belichick and Brady have over Vrabel and Tannehill is significant (this is Tannehill's first playoff start). The Patriots have been playoff home chalk of less than a TD three times since 2015. They are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in that role. Just when you're ready to count the Patriots out, they deliver (see our Patriots pick over Buffalo from two weeks ago).
FINNs SAT CBB ALL-ACCESS GAME I
Game: (701) Oregon at (702) Utah U
Date/Time: Jan 4 2020 5:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Utah U 6.0 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Utah Utes +6 (good to +4)
4% confidence rating
(701) Oregon at (702) Utah U
The quick turnaround, from Thursday night to Saturday afternoon is difficult for even flexable college athletes that have most everything paid for and help with their studies. Seeing that this game comes on the heels of a Thursday night event isn't as overwhelming than it will be in late January and February when school work is required. It is even more difficult considering this is the second game at altitude against a quality opponent in less than 48 hours.
More game analysis posted Saturday morning
UTAH +6 points
FINNs SAT CBB ALL-ACCESS GAME II
Game: (729) Iowa State at (730) TCU
Date/Time: Jan 4 2020 6:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: TCU -3.5 (-112)
View Analysis
PLAY: TCU Frogs -3.5 (play good tro -6)
4% confidence rating
(729) Iowa State at (730) TCU
The perimeter defense of the Horned Frogs is the best that this beyond the arc challenged ISU group has or will see in 2019-20. The four guard set of the Frogs assist in nearly 65% of all points scored.
More gameday analysis posted shortly.
TCU HORNED FROGS -3.5
FINNs SAT CBB ALL-ACCESS GAME III
Game: (719) Alabama at (720) Florida
Date/Time: Jan 4 2020 6:00 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Florida -6.5 (-108)
View Analysis
PLAY: Florida Gators -6.5 (good to -10)
4% confidence rating
(719) Alabama at (720) Florida
The Crimson Tide under a first-year head coach have yet to come together to the level that is neccessary to be competitive with the top half of the conference clubs, e.g. Florida Gators.
Bama is a guard-heavy offensive scheme that only on rare occasions do they find the Rocky Mountains to take the ball to the rim.
The matchup for the Tide versus a Gator perimeter defense that is argualby the best in the SEC is not a favorable matchup, especially being played in Floriday.
More game analysis shortly
FLORIDA GATORS -6.5 points
FINNs AFC WILDCARD PRIVATE PLAY Game: (141) Buffalo Bills at (142) Houston Texans Date/Time: Jan 4 2020 4:35 PM EST Betting Line Provider: Heritage Play Rating: 4% Play: Total Under 44.0 (-108)
PLAY: Under the Total of 44 (good to 43)
4% confidence rating
(141) Buffalo Bills at (142) Houston Texans
Game analysis upcoming UNDER the TOTAL of 44
FINNs AFC WILDCARD: PATS v TITANS
Game: (143) Tennessee Titans at (144) New England Patriots
Date/Time: Jan 4 2020 8:15 PM EST
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tennessee Titans 5.5 (-110)
View Analysis
PLAY: Tennessee Titans +5.5 (good to +4)
4% confidence rating
(143) Tennessee Titans at (144) New England Patriots
Game analysis posted shortly
TENNESSEE TITANS +5.5
Play: Tennessee Titans 5.5 (-110)
9:48 AM
TENNESSEE +4.5
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND | 1/04 | 8:15 PM EST
At the risk of opting against Tom Brady, a famously bad-weather QB, the rainy forecast favors Tennessee with indefatigable RB Derrick Henry. The Titans do not throw much anyway with QB Ryan Tannehill, who has proven efficient down the season’s stretch. This line is boosted by the Patriots’ incomparable playoff success, which cannot be discounted. But the visitors have been superior lately, as a 5-2 ATS record attests, while the Pats closed 1-4-1 ATS. New England went 3-3 straight-up this season against plus-.500 foes, and every winning margin was by one score. Take Tennessee.
58-31-5 IN LAST 94 NFL PICKS | +2391
12-5 IN LAST 17 NE ATS PICKS | +648
Kenny White learned the bookmaking business on his father's knee. By age 24 he was running a sportsbook and at 26 he was setting lines for Vegas' biggest casinos. A two-time winner of the prestigious Stardust Football Invitational, the originator of Player Power Ratings and the former head of the powerful Las Vegas Sports Consultants, Kenny arrived to SportsLine armed with new algorithms, ready to exploit mistakes in the betting line. One of his specialties is CBB over-unders: he's 58-44 all-time.
TENNESSEE +4.5
TENNESSEE @ NEW ENGLAND | 1/04 | 8:15 PM EST
10:07 AM
Since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starting quarterback for Tennessee, the Titans have won seven of 10 games. Tennessee played six teams with a winning record, and in those games the offense averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 9.4 yards per pass. Last week against Houston, Derrick Henry ran for 211 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile the Patriots lost two home games in December, including last week as a 17-point favorite with a bye on the line. The Patriots have been outgained in four of their last six games and are 1-4-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. Take the points.
16-9-1 IN LAST 26 NFL PICKS | +604
2-1 IN LAST 3 TEN ATS PICKS | +85
HOUSTON -2.5
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON | 1/04 | 4:35 PM EST
9:58 AM
Buffalo has played five games against teams with a winning record and has gone 1-4 while averaging just 14.2 points per game. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson rates out three points better than the average quarterback while Buffalo's Josh Allen, who will be playing his first playoff game, was one point below average. Defensive lineman J.J. Watt returns for Houston, which is a one-point upgrade for the Texans defense. I have Houston.
16-9-1 IN LAST 26 NFL PICKS | +604
2-1 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +90
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