Sunday 11-10-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 10 odds: Baltimore bettors in a bad situation
Jason Logan

The Ravens have shown a tendency to play down to opponents, going 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with a losing team, and are just 3-5 ATS on the year.

With nine weeks of NFL season on the tires, teams can be even more susceptible to situational spots – AKA spots bets – in the backend of the schedule. Football bettors will want to give the calendar a once-over while handicapping the NFL odds, circling the possible letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots that could hold value.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan does just that in NFL Week 10, giving his favorite spot bet opportunities and how they could impact this Sunday’s outcomes.

LETDOWN SPOT: BALTIMORE RAVENS AT CINCINNATI BENGALS (+10. 45.5)

There are few bigger highs than taking a win from the Patriots. That’s where we find the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10, playing the downtrodden Cincinnati Bengals a week removed from putting the boots to Brady & Co.

Baltimore not only has to deal with that change in intensity – from battling an undefeated Super Bowl champ to facing an 0-8 Bengals teams starting rookie QB Ryan Finley – but takes a sour smack of a situational sandwich, walking into a possible lookahead spot as well, with a huge home stand against Houston in Week 11 (which could have playoff seeding implications).

The Ravens have shown a tendency to play down to opponents, going 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings with a losing team, and are just 3-5 ATS on the year. Baltimore blew away Miami in Week 1, battled hard for a win in Seattle in Week 7, and upset New England at home last week. But the Ravens failed to cover versus the likes of Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and these very Bengals in Week 6.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-10.5, 44)

If any team was going to look past this week’s foe, the Colts have the best case. Indianapolis was biting its nails while waiting for word on QB Jacoby Brissett’s health after he suffered a knee injury last Sunday. Brissett looks like he avoided any serious damage but his status for Week 10’s home date versus Miami is still undetermined.

While he may be able to grit it out, the Colts might not need him to suit up to upend the Dolphins, and backup Brian Hoyer may get the nod. Even if Brissett does play, expect the team to protect any further injury as they plan for a big divisional matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11.

The Jaguars are coming off the bye week and making a move to the returning Nick Foles at QB, benching rookie passer and pop-culture phenomenon Gardner Minshew. Indianapolis will be playing it safe ahead of that divisional dance and brings a 0-5-1 ATS mark in its last six meetings with losing teams into a Week 10 game against one of the NFL's worst.


SCHEDULE SPOT: ARIZONA CARDINALS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-4.5, 51)

It’s a pirate’s life for the Buccaneers, who have been out to sea for nearly 50 days before making port at Raymond James Stadium in Week 10. Tampa Bay is coming off a grueling stretch of games away from home, starting at L.A. in Week 4 and spanning a trip to London, England in Week 6, a bye in Week 7, and back-to-back controversial losses at Tennessee and Seattle the past two outings.

This matchup with the Cardinals is just Tampa Bay’s third true road game of the season, having lost the other two to San Francisco and the New York Giants. There’s a lot of motivation to get the football-starved Florida faithful a victory this Sunday and the home-field edge could be just what the Buccaneers need to get over the hump after four of their six losses were decided by a touchdown or less.

The Bucs could easily be taking a two-game winning streak into this matchup with Arizona, if not for some botched calls by the officials in Weeks 8 and 9. We saw the Oakland Raiders in a similar schedule spot in Week 9, returning home for the first time after a 49-day period with a bang: winning and covering as 2-point chalk over Detroit last Sunday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


MVP PATH GOES THROUGH SAN FRAN

The San Francisco 49ers stand as the only undefeated team in the league having won against QBs Kyler Murray, Kyle Allen, Case Keenum, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph in the last month and a half.

Out of all those signal callers, the more mobile Murray was the one whose offense put up 357 yards (the most San Francico has allowed this year) and 19 first downs (the most allowed since Week 2). This Monday, the 49ers will start a tough schedule where they have to play three Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks in a month, starting with the league’s MVP frontrunner: Russell Wilson.

Wilson is coming into this matchup with a league-best passer rating of 118.2 and 22 touchdowns to one interception. The Seattle Seahawks QB will have to use his legs and elusiveness to breakdown the league’s best DVOA pass defense and aggressive pass rush.

Wilson will face a San Fran defense that plays zone more than nearly every other team in the league. Per Sharp Football, Wilson picks up 9.3 yards per attempt and has a 61-percent success versus zone defenses, compared to 6.7 YPA and 45 percent versus man coverage.

This is good news for the Seahawks receivers D.K. Metcalf, Jaron Brown and Josh Gordon, who average six-foot-three and nearly 220 pounds. Look for Wilson to use that size advantage versus the smaller San Francisco secondary while also allowing Tyler Lockett to do what he does: 19 catches for 252 yards and two scores in his last two games.

San Francisco's loss of linebacker Kwon Alexander is also a huge problem as he was ranked as the best coverage linebacker in the league per ProFootballFocus.

We like the Seahawks +6. They are also 3-1 ATS on the road this year with the only ATS loss being a 7-point win in Atlanta as 7.5-point chalk.


JONES EATS WITH THE LEAD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones started again last week and outperformed Peyton Barber for the second straight week.

In games where Jones receives at least 14 carries (three games), the RB is averaging 4.3 yards per carry with two TDs. The problem for Jones lies in the game flow. If Tampa Bay is playing from behind, then third-down back Dare Ogunbowale will get the majority of the snaps. With the 3-5-1 Arizona Cardinals on deck for Sunday, the Bucs will have a much better shot at playing with the lead as 4.5-point home favorites.

The Cardinals sit 23rd in rush attempts against at 28 and are allowing 4.5 yards per carry. However, stay away from the Jones anytime TD prop as Arizona is tied for third fewest rushing TDs allowed.

We like Jones’ total yards prop better than just rushing as he has been steadily chipping in one or two grabs a game and averaging 15.5 yards per reception. Take the Over on Jones’ total yards on any number below 82.


THURSDAY NIGHT AIR RAID

No team in the league has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Oakland Raiders. So far in 2019, Jon Gruden’s team is giving up 2.7 touchdowns through the air per game and is allowing a tasty 3.7 passing TDs a game over its last three.

This is great news for Los Angeles Chargers QB Philip Rivers, whose team is coming off a dominating performance versus Green Bay last week where Rivers tossed for 294 yards but no touchdown passes. Rivers has not been held to zero touchdowns in back-to-back games since December 2015 and has 45 TDs in 26 career games against the Raiders including three straight games of two or more versus his AFC West rivals.

We are jumping on the Rivers Over 1.5 TDs play for some Thursday Night Football action.


SOMEONE HAS TO WIN THIS GAME

Just when things were getting exciting for the Giants as the offense was finally getting healthy, Sterling Shepard re-entered concussion protocol before Monday night’s game and now Evan Engram is dealing with a foot injury.

Having lost five straight games while averaging a league-worst 2.4 giveaways, things are looking bleak ahead of their game against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium on Sunday.

Speaking of turnovers, this game could easily feature half a dozen as the Jets are just as bad at keeping the ball, turning it over 3.3 times over their last three games. Despite all the poor quarterback play from both teams, playing on a short week won’t help the Giants get healthier versus a Jets team that just lost to the lowly Dolphins – an added motivation.

We’re grabbing the home dogs at +3 as it looks as if that line will move under that key number, with some markets already showing +2.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL trends for Week 10:

— Buffalo covered seven of its last ten games.

— Carolina is 24-12 ATS in last 36 games as a road underdog.

— Chicago covered eight of its last nine NFC North games.

— Ravens are 9-4 ATS in last 13 AFC North road games.

— Arizona covered seven of its last ten games.

— Dallas is 8-3-1 ATS in last dozen home games.

— Titans are 8-16-2 ATS in last 26 games as a home underdog.

— Tampa Bay is 4-13 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

— Seattle covered its last five games as a divisional road dog.

— Vikings covered 12 of last 17 games as a road underdog.

— New Orleans won/covered its last six games.

— Green Bay covered 12 of its last 17 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Div Finals
David Schwab

The final weekend of CFL regular season games kicked things off with Montreal posting its 10th straight-up victory of the year by beating Ottawa 42-32 as a seven-point road favorite on Friday night.

In the first of three Saturday games, Saskatchewan clinched the West Division title with a 23-13 victory against Edmonton in a PUSH as a 10-point home favorite. Hamilton closed out its season with a tight 21-18 win at home against Toronto, but the Tiger-Cats came nowhere close to covering the 13 ½-point spread. Calgary closed as a 6 ½-point road favorite against British Columbia and the Stampeders failed to cover in a 21-16 decision.

Sunday, Nov. 10

Edmonton Eskimos (8-10 SU, 5-12-1 ATS) at Montreal Alouettes (10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -1 ½
Total: 50

Game Overview

Edmonton enters the playoffs as a crossover team from the West Division. The Eskimos split the season series against Montreal SU with the home team winning each meeting. They were 0-2 ATS with the total staying UNDER 54 points in a 20-10 loss to the Alouettes as 5 ½-point road favorites. Edmonton has just two straight-up wins over its last nine games with a 1-7-1 record against the spread. The total has stayed UNDER in three of its last five contests. It has gone 2-6-1 ATS on the road this season.

Logan Kilgore took the majority of the snaps at quarterback in the season finale. He completed 12-of-22 passes for 88 yards with two touchdown throws against one interception. Taking over for the injured Trevor Harris over final six games of the season, he has thrown for 1,199 yards while completing 65.5 percent of his 174 attempts. Kilgore has six touchdown passes against nine interceptions.

This will be Montreal’s first postseason appearance since the 2014 CFL season. The Alouettes followed a SU win with a SU loss in each of their past nine outings. They went 5-4 ATS during this same span with the total going OVER in three of their final four games. Montreal failed to cover the closing spread in five of its final seven home games.

Vernon Adams Jr. completed 13-of-16 passing attempts in limited action Friday night for 126 yards and two touchdowns before giving way to Matt Shiltz. Adams finished the regular season with 3,942 total passing yards while completing 65.7 percent of his 431 passing attempts. He tossed 24 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. William Stanback was the Alouettes’ leading rusher with 1,048 yards and five scores on 170 carries. He gained 45 yards on seven rushing attempts against Ottawa.

Betting Trends

-- With the SU season split, Edmonton has won 11 of its last 12 games against Montreal. It also has an 8-4 edge in these meetings ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games in this inter-division clash.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7 SU, 12-6 ATS) at Calgary Stampeders (12-6 SU, 5-12-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -6
Total: 49 ½

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers have the benefit of a Week 21 bye heading into their third game against Calgary over the past four weeks. This will be the fourth meeting between these West Division rivals this season with the home team winning each game SU. Winnipeg has the 2-1 edge ATS with the total going OVER in all three games. The Blue Bombers are 5-1 ATS this season when closing as underdogs and they have covered in three of their last five road games.

In the season-ending 29-28 home win against Calgary, Zach Collaros was under center at quarterback in his only start this season due to injury. He completed 22-of-28 passes for 221 yards and two scores. He was also picked off once. Andrew Harris gained another 64 yards running the ball on 15 carries. He ended the regular season as the CFL’s leading rusher with 1,380 yards and four scores on 225 carries.

The Week 20 loss to Winnipeg cost Calgary the West Division title after opening that home-and-home series with a 37-33 victory as a 6 ½-point favorite at home. The Stampeders were 7-2 SU in their last nine games with a costly 2-6-1 record ATS after failing to cover in their last five games. The total stayed UNDER 47 points in Saturday’s win against BC after going OVER in six of their previous 10 outings. Calgary is 2-7 ATS at home this season and a dismal 1-11-1 ATS closing as a favorite.

Bo Levi Mitchell ended the season with 3,464 passing yards and 19 touchdown throws in 11 starts. He completed 66 percent of his 415 passing attempts. He threw for a combined 687 yards and seven touchdowns in those final two games against Winnipeg. Reginald Begelton has been his top target with 102 receptions in 17 games. His 1,444 receiving yards is ranked third in the CFL and his 10 touchdown catches are also tied for the third most in the CFL.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has the slight 6-4 SU edge in the last 10 meetings between these two division foes. This includes a 22-14 SU win in last year’s playoffs as a 7 ½-point home favorite. The series is tied 5-5 ATS with the total going OVER in six of the 10 games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 22

Sunday, November 10

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EDMONTON (8 - 10) at MONTREAL (10 - 8) - 11/10/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all games this season.
EDMONTON is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in all lined games this season.
EDMONTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) off a division game this season.
EDMONTON is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf this season.
EDMONTON is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
EDMONTON is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
EDMONTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 9 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 5-1 straight up against MONTREAL over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WINNIPEG (11 - 7) at CALGARY (12 - 6) - 11/10/2019, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 36-21 ATS (+12.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) versus division opponents this season.
WINNIPEG is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a division game this season.
WINNIPEG is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) in games played on turf this season.
CALGARY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a favorite this season.
CALGARY is 5-12 ATS (-8.2 Units) in games played on turf this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 4-4 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 4-4 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 22

Trend Report

Sunday, November 10

Montreal Alouettes
Montreal is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games
Montreal is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Montreal is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Montreal is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 6 games at home
Montreal is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Edmonton
Montreal is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Edmonton
Montreal is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games when playing Edmonton
Montreal is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Montreal is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Montreal is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Montreal's last 7 games when playing at home against Edmonton
Edmonton Eskimos
Edmonton is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Edmonton is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
Edmonton is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Edmonton is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Edmonton's last 14 games on the road
Edmonton is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Montreal
Edmonton is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
Edmonton is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games when playing Montreal
Edmonton is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Edmonton is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Edmonton is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing on the road against Montreal
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Edmonton's last 7 games when playing on the road against Montreal

Calgary Stampeders
Calgary is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Calgary is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Calgary is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Calgary is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Calgary is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing Winnipeg
Calgary is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing at home against Winnipeg
Winnipeg Blue Bombers
Winnipeg is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games
Winnipeg is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games
Winnipeg is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games on the road
Winnipeg is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing Calgary
Winnipeg is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Winnipeg's last 6 games when playing on the road against Calgary

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Division Semifinals preview, odds, picks & predictions: Why Winnipeg is worth a wager
Rohit Ponnaiya

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are 6-point underdogs on the road against the Calgary Stampeders in the CFL Western Division semifinals on Sunday.

The CFL division semifinals take place on Sunday with the Edmonton Eskimos crossing over to play the Montreal Alouettes, while the Calgary Stampeders host the Winnipeg Blue Bombers as 6-point chalk.

We break down the odds (provided by 10bet.com) with analysis and predictions for both CFL playoff games this weekend.

Season Betting Trends

Favorites: 62-19 SU, 38-41-2 ATS
Home teams: 50-31 SU, 40-39-2 ATS
Over/Under: 37-43-1

Week 21 Picks: 3-1
Season to date: 39-36-2

EDMONTON ESKIMOS AT MONTREAL ALOUETTES (-1.5, 50)

This line is a testament to how much the Alouettes have flown under the radar all season. While the Eskimos will have star quarterback Trevor Harris, he's played just one game since September 8 and they had red-zone problems on offense even with Harris under center.

Alouettes QB Vernon Adams Jr might be the front-runner for Most Outstanding Player after accounting for 36 total touchdowns (24 passing and 12 running) in 16 games this season. While the Eskimos defense has been excellent against the pass they've been vulnerable to the run giving up 5.4 yards per carry. That's bad news against the mobile Adams and Montreal running back William Stanback who rushed for 1048 yards in 14 games with 6.2 YPA.

Edmonton has struggled on the road going 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS. Their three victories away from home came against the three-worst teams in the league in Ottawa, Toronto and B.C. The Als went 6-3 at home, including a 20-10 victory over the Esks in Week 6 - a game which Harris was healthy for. Take the home side to win and cover.

PICK: Montreal -1.5


WINNIPEG BLUE BOMBERS AT CALGARY STAMPEDERS (-6, 49.5)

If the regular-season matchups between these teams are any indication, this should be a close game. The Bombers went 2-1 in the series with a total score of 89-88 for Calgary. The biggest margin of victory was a 37-33 Calgary victory in Week 19 where Winnipeg had a fourth-quarter lead.

While Calgary could certainly repeat as Grey Cup champions this isn't the same juggernaut they've had in years past. The Stamps rank fourth in the league in offense and in defense (both in terms of yardage and scoring), which in a league of nine teams isn't exactly impressive.

The Bombers struggled towards the end of the season but with the recently acquired (and recently healthy) Zach Collaros looking sharp against the Stamps in their season finale, their passing struggles might be over. Winnipeg has the top running attack and the best run defense in the league and, at least on paper, a formidable pass defense that has piled up 48 sacks and 24 interceptions.

When it comes to special teams, Winnipeg has a clear edge. Returner Janarion Grant has two punt return TDs against Calgary this season and Winnipeg is plus-7 in big plays on special teams while Calgary is minus-6.

The Bombers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Western Conference opponents while the Stamps are 0-6-1 ATS in their previous seven games overall. Take Winnipeg and the points.

PICK: Winnipeg +6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 22


Sunday, November 10

Edmonton @ Montreal

Game 821-822
November 10, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Edmonton
110.395
Montreal
109.972
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 1
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Montreal
by 2
50
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(+2); Under

Winnipeg @ Calgary

Game 823-824
November 10, 2019 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
116.567
Calgary
117.533
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Calgary
by 1
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Calgary
by 6
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Winnipeg
(+6); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

by: Josh Inglis


HUNTING FOR CHUBB

Nick Chubb currently sits fourth in the league in rushing with 806 yards — behind Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette — thanks to his 5.2 yards per rush (sixth best). So of course, Cleveland Browns head coach Freddie Kitchens said he wants to scale back his attempts to make room for Kareem Hunt who had been suspended for the first eight games of the season. Kitchens sure has a good grasp on how to run a stereotypical Cleveland football team.

The Buffalo Bills have allowed the third-most rushing attempts over the last three weeks (31 per game) at a clip of 4.8 yards per attempt. This means there is still plenty of room for Chubb to get 17-20 rushes on Sunday as Hunt will most likely absorb a good piece of backup RB Dontrell Hilliard’s 40 percent snap share.

Chubb has eclipsed 85 yards rushing in five of his last six weeks against the fourth, 24th, 20th, 22nd and 13th DVOA rush defenses — Buffalo is ranked 30th. Take Chubbs’ Over 91.5 rushing total as the matchup might be Kitchens-proof.


ROAD DOGS LOST THEIR BITE

If you have been following the ATS trends of road and home teams this year, then you will know that the visitors have been dominating with road underdogs hitting at an even higher rate. Heading into last week, road teams were 73-47-2 ATS (60%) and road dogs were 52-29-2 (63%) ATS. However, Week 9 saw a serious regression to the mean as home teams went 11-3 ATS while road dogs went 1-6 ATS.

This week, we like home teams to continue their hot run and are throwing down a two-teamer to prove it. Yesterday, we wrote about backing the Jets as three-point home dogs, so we will exclude them from this list.

Rams at Steelers (+3.5): The Steelers are coming in hot having won four of their last five (with their only loss in overtime against the Ravens) and will look to move into a playoff position with a win over the well-rested Los Angeles Rams. L.A.’s strength of schedule may hurt them as their last three wins were against teams who are 3-21 combined this year.

The game could easily be won on the pass rush where the Steelers are second in the league in QB hits produced while their quarterback, Mason Rudolph, has been sacked more than once just two times in his six game.

Vikings at Cowboys (-3): The Vikes have lost three road games this year to Chicago, Green Bay and last week in Kansas City — all by at least three points. The offense will also be with Adam Thielen as Kirk Cousins and his 15-26-2 career road record and 1-6 record versus the Cowboys could struggle in primetime.


THE BEST ARE GETTING BETTER

The San Francisco 49ers run game is good — really good. They lead the NFC in rushing yards per game, rushes per game and rushing touchdowns per game. Things could possibly be getting better for Kyle Shanahan’s rushing attack as left tackle Joe Stanley plans to play in Week 10 against a Seattle Seahawks team that has allowed 367 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.

The 49ers have been less efficient running to the left tackle side as their 4.01 yards per carry is one full yard less than their yards per carry behind the right tackle. Matt Breida saw his snap count increase by 10 percent in Week 9 as he outgained fellow running back Tevin Coleman 78 to 23 but played 12 fewer offensive snaps. The Seahawks’ 22nd ranked DVOA rush defense may have no answers for the 49ers rushing game.

We are jumping on Breida’s rushing total of 56.5 yards and hitting the Over is what is shaping up to be an epic Monday night matchup.


RIDING THE ROOKIE WAVE

The Cincinnati Bengals have benched Andy Dalton for rookie Ryan Finley ahead of their Week 10 contest against the talk of the town Baltimore Ravens. The former Wolfpack was the sixth signal-caller taken in this year’s draft and finished the preseason with a 72.3 percent completion rate while only taking four sacks in 64 pass attempts.

We usually like fading rookies, but with how much praise Baltimore is getting after their win over the Patriots, the Ravens may be sleeping on the Bengals who could have the services of A.J. Green. Dalton averaged 281.5 yards a game while taking 3.6 sacks a game proving the offensive potential is there and that this isn't a Luke Falk situation.

Fellow rookie QBs Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones and Kyle Allen all threw for over 250 yards in their first taste of the NFL this year. Let’s ride the rookie wave and play the Over 250.5 passing yards on Finley and hopefully, he will be drowning in memes come Monday.


KICKERS ARE PEOPLE TOO

For this week’s kicking prop, we are going to stick with what’s working. We are 3-0 over the last three weeks fading the weather in the northeast. Checking out the Covers weather report we can see that poor kicking conditions are expected in Cleveland where the Buffalo Bills meet the Browns.

The weather looks below freezing with strong winds and a high chance of snow. That’s great news as Bills kicker Stephen Hauschka who has yet to make a kick from 50 or longer and hasn’t hit anything longer than 45 yards since Week 4. Cleveland Kicker Austin Seibert has yet to attempt a kick longer than 49.

Take the Under 46.5 yards on the longest field goal.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STEPHEN NOVER
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Ravens vs. Bengals
Bengals+10½

When it comes to the NFL, it's not who you play but when you play them. That's what we have in this matchup - a winless Bengals team against a Ravens squad that just knocked off previously unbeaten New England and who has seized control of the disappointing AFC North Division. The Bengals can't stop the run, nor can they run the ball. Now benched Andy Dalton has their only three rushing touchdowns. Is that a concern? Oh, yeah, a big one. But there are enough factors, history and intangibles that point to the Bengals covering as this big of a home 'dog. Let's start with the spot. It's great for Cincinnati, terrible for Baltimore. The Ravens are sitting on top of the NFL world after their best performance of the year, a 37-20 dismantling of the Patriots last Sunday. It's going to be difficult for them to reach that sky-high motivation and "A" game level a second straight week playing a winless team on the road even if that team is in their division. Baltimore has a terrible track record in these spots. Just twice during the past 13 times have the Ravens covered as favorites. They are 1-4 as chalk this season wtih the lone cover occurring opening week against the Dolphins. Teams who just played the Patriots are 1-7 ATS the following week. There is more: The Ravens are 1-7-1 in their last nine AFC North games. Baltimore is 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS during its last seven trips to Cincinnati. The Bengals have played three probable playoff teams close losing to the Seahawks, Bills and Ravens by a combined 11 points while covering each of those games. Cincinnati is off its bye. The Bengals won't have A.J. Green yet, but could get back their best offensive lineman, left tackle Cordy Glenn. There should be a lot of energy coming from the Bengals. Dalton finally is benched after eight years of maddening mediocrity. Ryan Finley could bring a spark. He has accuracy and poise. Zac Smith was hired to coach up the Bengals offense. Here is his chance. His job could be on the line already if the Bengals come out stale here. Cincinnati has decent wideouts even without Green and speedster John Ross. Joe Mixon led the AFC in rushing last season. He is way overdue for a big performance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chip Chirimbes

Carolina at Green Bay 4:25 ET

Panthers (+) over Packers

After fading the Packers as 'our' 'Highest-rated' 5*Megabucks winner San Diego last week I was reluctant to come back against them against fearing having gone to the well once to often. But, as the week progressed and information started to file in it became more apparent that I should take a closer look at the match-up. Carolina is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the home team 4-0 ATS in the last four. Stars on both side will shine with Rogers and McCaffrey doing their thing...Take PANTHERS!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BRANDON LEE
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Vikings vs. Cowboys

10* FREE NFL PICK (Cowboys -3)

I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying just a field goal at home against the Vikings. I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Cowboys. The Vikings had their 4-game skid snapped in a crushing OT loss at Kansas City last week. A game they have to feel like they should have won with the Chiefs playing without Mahomes.

That loss to KC continued an awful trend for Minnesota on the road against good teams. The Vikings have now failed to win 10 straight games away from home against a team with a winning record. Most of those coming with Kirk Cousins at QB. Speaking of Cousins, he's 1-6 in his career against the Cowboys, dating back to his days with the Redskins. Give me the Cowboys -3!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOHN MARTIN
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Giants vs. Jets

1 Unit FREE PLAY on New York Giants -2.5

The reports coming out of the Jets’ locker room are not good. There is a lot of in-fighting as this team is just 1-7 on the season and just got beat by the lowly Miami Dolphins, handing them their first win of the season. Now I expect the Giants to get a win against the Jets and keep kicking them while they’re down. The Jets are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall with a 33-point loss to New England, a 14-point loss to Jacksonville and an 8-point loss to Miami. The Giants have been victims of a tough schedule here of late with losses to Minnesota, New England, Dallas, Detroit and Arizona. They take a step down in class here finally and should pick up their third win of the season. The Jets have one of the worst injury reports in the NFL as they are banged up all over their defense and along their offensive line. They can’t protect Sam Darnold or make running lanes for Le’Veon Bell. It will be more of the same here. The Giants have the best unit on the field in their offense led by Daniel Jones. The Giants are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games against AFC East teams. The Giants are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. The Jets are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Jets are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Give me the Giants.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WILL ROGERS
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Bills vs. Browns
Bills+3

The set-up: At the start of the week I quickly look at both the NCAAF and NFL cards and this particular play jumped out at me right away. The Browns once hyped season is on life support, especially with Baltimore laying the smack down on the Patriots on Sunday night. The Bills on the other hand avoided a potential "trap" after a 31-13 loss to Philadelphia, by handling the Redskins 24-9 in front of the home town crowd.

The pick: Note though that Buffalo is 3-0 ATS on the road already this year and getting points here vs. this dejected home side that is struggling with consistency across the board seems like a gift to me. And with another very winnable game at Miami next weekend, this is an important stretch vs. "lesser" competition that the Bills can't afford to "look past." Additionally the Browns have the now red hot Steelers coming to town next weekend, so the potential for a "look ahead" is present for the home side as well. I definitely think the visitors are worth a second look in this particular matchup.

1* FREE PLAY on the Buffalo Bills.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE PRICE
NFL | Nov 10, 2019
Panthers vs. Packers

1* on Carolina Panthers +5.5

The Key: Kyle Allen is now 6-1 as a starter with his only loss coming to the unbeaten 49ers. He is taking care of the football and making enough plays in the passing game to compliment Carolina’s tremendous running game led by Christian McCaffrey. And the Panthers will be able to run this ball on this Green Bay defense, which gives up 128 rushing yards per game and 4.7 per carry. The Packers just gave up 159 rushing yards to a bad Chargers rushing offense last week. Their offense was held to 184 total yards and they gave up 442, getting out-yarded by 256 yards. This number is steep and I think the price is right to back the Panthers. Take Carolina.