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Re: 1-17-09
Larry Ness Saturday
7* Daytime Dominator
No. 8 Syracuse lost for just the second time this year on Wednesday, falling 88-74 at Georgetown, when the Hoyas made 12-of-21 three-pointers. The team's only previous loss came at home to Cleveland St (Dec 15), on a desperation 60-foot shot at the buzzer. It's back to the drawing board for Jim Boeheim's crew this afternoon vs No. 12 Notre Dame, which lost Monday at Louisville, when it was outscored 16-2 in overtime. The Irish are led by Luke Harangody (24.8-12.7), the Big East's scoring leader, plus Kyle McAlarney (16.6-2.6-3.4), who is making 47.9 percent of his threes. ND beat Georgetown at home 73-67 back on Jan 5 and last year, McAlarney made 9-of-11 three-pointers in a 94-87 win by the Irish over the Orange in South Bend. Joining Harangody and McAlarney in the starting lineup are the 6-9 Hillesland (6.4-5.9), 6-7 swingman Ayers (11.3-3.6) and McAlarney's backcourt partner, Jackson (11.6-4.6-5.9). The 6-10 Zeller (6.0-4.0) is really the only other main contributor for the Irish. Syracuse is determined to break a two-year NCAA drought and there is little doubt that at 16-2, the Orange on well on their way to doing just that. The 6-11 Greene (17.7-7.2) left after his freshman year but fellow freshman, PG Flynn (16.3-5.7 APG), has returned for his sophomore season and leads the team in scoring. Devendorf (14.3) and Rautins (10.6-3.1-3.4) join him on the perimeter, although Rautins is questionable for this game (knee). Two 6-9 guys will battle Harangody inside, Onuaku (12.3-8.0) and Jackson (7.2-5.7)plus the 6-8 Ongenaet (1.9-3.9) will help some as well. The 6-5 Harris (13.8-8.5) is a very good player and may be too much for Notre Dame's Ayers. Both teams score well, with ND averaging 81.6 PPG and shooting 41.4 percent from behind the three-point line. However, Syracuse averages 80.9 PPG and shoots 50.5 percent from the floor as a team. Syracuse's poor defensive performance against Georgetown (or was it just "lights out" shooting by the Hoyas?) is not typical, as the Syracuse defense has limited opponents to 27.9 percent shooting on threes this year. Expect the Orange to bounce back here and hand Notre Dame its second straight loss.
Daytime Dominator on Syracuse
Larry's Las Vegas Insider (71.4% run)-Day
It was a "break out year" for the Buffalo football team (MAC title and a bowl bid) and the basketball team is hoping it can follow suit. That won't be easy, as the Bulls were 10-20 last year, including 3-13 in the MAC but Reggie Witherspoon's team has shown more than a few "signs of life" this year. The Bulls are 9-5 (1-1 in MAC play) and host Ohio U (9-6 / 2-0) on Saturday. Buffalo does not have an answer for the Bobcats' 6-6 Tillman (20.1-9.4), who may be this year's MAC p-o-y, but other than him, the matchups are good. Tillman's joined by fellow 6-6 senior Orr (10.9-3.3) in the frontcourt but Ohio has little size. The 6-7 Washington (5.3-4.3) has been OK but the 6-10 van Kempen continues to be a major bust. PG Allen (6.3-4.1) is solid and is joined in the backcourt by freshman Coleman (9.9-3.5-2.9) plus swingman Freeman (8.3). The key this year for the Bulls has been their depth. They have all five starters back from last year plus 10 players are averaging at least 10 MPG. Pierce averaged just 7.6 PPG last season but leads the team this year, averaging 15.6-3.9-2.2. The 6-3 Betts averages 12.0 PPG and a team-high 7.3 RPG. Swingman Gamble averages 9.6-5.5-3.6 and guard Andy Robinson 8.5 per. The 6-9 Fedetov missed most of LY with a knee injury but is back healthy averaging 4.4-2.3 plus 6-7 freshman Titus Robinson (3.5) and the 6-7 Boudreau (4.6-3.7) can both help out inside vs Tillman. Ohio's first-year head coach John Groce (former Ohio St assistant) is still tinkering with his starting lineup, while the Bulls are set. They lost both games to the Bobcats last year but should be well-prepared here for their conference home-opener. The good news is that they catch Ohio off back-to-back wins over Kent St (last Sunday) and at Miami-Ohio on Wednesday. The Bobcats are "ripe for the taking" in this one.
Las Vegas Insider on Buffalo
Oddsmaker's Error- NCAAB
Kansas St was very unhappy when Huggins left Manhattan to return to his alma mater (West Va) after just one season (23 wins and an NIT bid). The Wildcats promoted assistant coach Frank Martin, giving him his first-ever head coaching job. With a little help from spectacular freshman Michael Beasley (26.2-12.4) and a healthy Bill Walker (16.1-6.3), the Wildcats garnered an NCAA bid (beat USC in the 1st round) and finished with 21 wins. However, both Beasley and Walker left for the NBA. Martin has talent in Manhattan but questions still surround this team. Sophomore guards Pullen (14.2-3.7 APG) and Brown 910.1) have been joined by Miami-Fla transfer Clemente (12.3-3.1 APG) but I for one (I'm NOT alone), am not a big fan of the former Hurricane. There are no Beasleys or even Walkers up front but 6-8 redshirt freshman Samuels (9.7-4.9), the 6-8 Anderson (9.7-4.9), the 6-10 Kent (8.5-6.0) and swingman Sutton (8.3-4.9) are an untalented group. However, the Wildcats have not played very well in unfriendly surroundings. They lost a couple of two-point decisions in Las Vegas (Kentucky and Iowa) and then lost at Oregon, which has dropped SEVEN of nine games since. After an 11-3 non-conference mark, the Wildcats scored only 53 points at home to Oklahoma in an eight-point loss and then allowed 87 points at Kansas in a 16-point defeat, to open Big 12 paly 0-2. They'll have their work cut out for then here against Doc Sadler's 'Huskers. Nebraska is an odd team, which basically starts five guards. The 6-5 Dagunduro (11.0-3. and the 6-4 Anderson (5.1-4.4) are the team's best rebounders and six players average 23-plus minutes (McCray gets about 18 minutes, averaging 7.0-3.5), The 5-11 Harley (12.35-3.7-2.3) is the team's leading scorer, followed by Dagunduro, the 6-3 Henry (9.5-3.5-2.3) and the 6-2 Velander (8.9). Nebraska is 10-1 at home this year, with its lone loss coming right before Christmas (12/23), when Maryland-Balt Co. came to Lincoln and shot 57.1 percent in a two-point win. That game was just a fluke and let me point out that with Beasley and Walker leading the way, the Wildcats weren't able to beat the 'Huskers here in Lincoln last year (Nebraska won 71-64), so why would anyone think the Wildcats can win this year? They can't and the price makes this a bargain.
Oddsmaker's Error on Nebraska
Larry Ness' Conference 10*-CBB
Thad Matta can sure coach but he's finding out it's "tough sledding" when top players keep leaving early. Two years ago it was Oden and Conley 'jumping ship' after the team's Final 4 run (lost national championship game to Florida) and LY it was the 7-1 Koufos (14.4-6.7) bolting after a solid freshman season (Ohio St won the NIT). However, Koufos was hardly the only loss for Matta. He lost the terrific Butler (15.0-5.9 APG), a solid player in forward Hunter (9.9-6.5), a key role player in Terwilliger and even his top assistant, who left to take the head coaching job at Ohio U (John Groce). If all that wasn't bad enough, 6-5 swingman Lighty (9.7-5.7), who had been a part of the team's 59 wins the last two seasons, was lost to an injury after seven games this year (return unknown at this time). The 7-1 Mullens, who the Blue Ribbon CBB Yearbook touted as "Newcomer of the Year," has been far less than that, averaging 8.3 PPG and 4.1 RPG as a freshman. The 6-7 Turner (15.7-6.9) is the team's most talented player plus sophomore guard Diebler (11.3-3.5-2.7) and freshman swingman Buford (10.3-3.5) are both very good. As for Michigan, no one doubted that John Beilein wouldn't dwell too long on last year's 10-22 (5-13 in the Big 10) mark. Everyone was RIGHT. Michigan is ranked No. 25, although the Wolverines could fall out of the rankings (win or lose here), after getting beat Wednesday night at Illinois (led by one at the half but lost 66-51). However, Illinois is a very underrated team and Michigan shot a season-low 32.2 percent for the game (6-of-29 as a team in the second half) and was held 20 points below its season scoring average. Do not expect a repeat performance here in Crisler Arena, where the Wolverines are 10-1. The lone loss came back on 12/31 against Wisconsin, when the Badgers shot 59.7 percent and Michigan just 39.2. Michigan has two terrific players in 6-5 swingman Harris (18.7-7.6-4.7) and the best big man in this game, the 6-8 Sims (15.9-8.0). Now that Arizona transfer Lucas-Perry (11.4) is eligible, the perimeter is pretty solid, as he joins freshman guards Novak (6.8-3.1) and Douglass (4.4) plus sophomore Grady (5.6). The 6-10 Gibson (4.1-2.1) is still a "work in progress" but he does add bulk. This is just Ohio State's fourth true road game this year. The Buckeyes won at Miami-Florida on Dec 2 but have since lost 68-59 at Minnesota and 67-58 at Michigan State. Note the fact that OSU couldn't reach 60 points in either of those games and that Michigan owns a home win over Duke plus a win over UCLA (at MSG) already this year. Last year's "sad-sack" team beat Ohio State here in Ann Arbor 80-70, as Harris had 27 points and Sims 22, so there is little reason to think that this year's team can't do the same. John Beilein is going for his 500th career NCAA win and I expect it to come in impressive fashion.
10* Michigan.
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Re: 1-17-09
BIG AL's 93% NBA NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH!
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over Orlando. The Magic won last night at the Lakers, and have the league's best road record at 16-5, but will have a tough time winning tonight on the road vs. Denver. The Nuggets had Friday night off, so they are rested, and have won the last five meetings at home vs. Orlando, going 5-0 ATS in those games, with the last four wins being by double-digits. Also, after posting five straight wins and covers (and scoring 100+ points in those games), the Magic fall into a negative 27-54 ATS system of mine which fades certain teams off a string of high-scoring wins. Finally, over the last two seasons, Denver is 13-1, 93% ATS off a win, if the Nuggets are matched up against a non-conference foe. Take Denver as our NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's AFTERNOON COLLEGE BASKETBALL TV WINNER.
At 2 pm, on ESPN, our selection is on the Texas A&M Aggies plus the points over Oklahoma. Mark Turgeon's men catch Blake Griffin & Co. at the perfect time with Oklahoma in off an emotional revenge win vs. Texas. The 5th-ranked Sooners won that game by 15, and that snapped a long losing streak at the hands of the Longhorns (including a 28-point loss in last year's Big 12 Conference Tourney). But off that win, the Sooners will have a letdown today in College Station where Texas A&M is always difficult to beat. The Aggies are 11-0 at home in Reed Arena and defeated the 21st-ranked Baylor Bears 84-73 on Wednesday. That 11-point win triggered a momentum system of mine which is 58-36 ATS and plays on certain home dogs off a double digit win as a home dog. Oklahoma has covered just 18 of its last 55 away from home. Take Texas A&M. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month or my College Conference Game of the Year today.
BIG AL's NCAA CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR; 100% TY
At 8 pm, our Horizon League Game of the Year is on Youngstown State plus the points over Wisconsin-Green Bay, as the Penguins fall into a 114-44 ATS system of mine which plays on certain double-digit dogs off back-to-back double-digit losses. In its last two games, Youngstown lost 69-50 at Wisconsin-Milwaukee and 68-57 at home to Loyola-Illinois. But I look for Youngstown to rebound off those losses, and play Wisc-Green Bay close tonight as the Phoenix are coming off two straight emotional wins (77-75 at rival Wisc-Milwaukee, and an 80-65 upset win over Cleveland State). Wisconsin Green Bay is an awful 9-20 vs. conference foes, if Wisc-Green Bay is off two straight conference wins, and an even worse 7-26 ATS vs. conference foes if Wisc-Green Bay is off back to back pointspread wins. Horizon League Game of the Year on Youngstown State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
BIG AL's 100% ATS NCAA RIVALRY GAME OF THE MONTH!
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Stanford Cardinal minus the points over California. The storyline in this game is the return of Cal head coach Mike Montgomery to Maples Pavillion, where he led Stanford for 18 seasons. But now, after a brief stint in the NBA, Montgomery has moved across town to Berkeley and has the Bears ranked #22 in the country. In its last game, California won in triple overtime vs. Washington as a 5-point underdog, 88-85, even though it did not lead at any point (other than 1-0) before taking an 86-85 lead with seconds to go in the third overtime. That was Cal's ninth straight win, and third in a row as an underdog. But since 1990, college basketball teams off at least six wins, with the last three being upsets, are 0-9 ATS. Stanford comes into this game off two 1-point losses at Washington State and Washington, but covered the spread in each defeat, and is 10-3 ATS this season, including 8-1 vs. winning teams. Also, college basketball teams with strong home courts, off exactly two losses, are 50-29 ATS at home vs. opponents off an upset win. The Cardinal are 8-1 straight-up at home this season and will win this ballgame. Take Stanford minus the points.
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Re: 1-17-09
Dr Bob
4 Saturday Daytime Best Bets.
Rotation #560 Clemson (-2) 2-Stars at -2 or less.
Rotation #566 Michigan State (-7 1/2) 2-Stars at -8 or less.
Rotation #575 Boston College (+4) 2-Stars at +3 or more.
Rotation #591 Ball State (+3 1/2) 3-Stars at +2 or more, 2-Stars down to -1.Comment
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