Service Plays Saturday 10/12/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-08-2019, 08:46 AM

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2019 4:00PM
182 Nevada -3.0(-110) Pinnacle vs 181 San Jose St. triple-dime bet

Analysis: Just two weeks ago, we suffered one of the most embarrassing losses in my entire handicapping career. We gave out Nevada -2 vs Hawaii and they proceeded to lose 54-3. Now after that loss, we think we're buying Nevada stock low as they're off a bye, after head coach Jay Norvell had the following comments:
“It’s beyond disappointing and embarrassing to have that kind of performance,” said Norvell on Monday, less than 48 hours after a stunning 54-3 loss to the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in front of an ESPN2 nationwide audience and a dejected Homecoming crowd at Mackay Stadium.
“There’s a whole bunch of players and coaches over at Cashell Field House that got their eyes opened this morning,” Norvell said. “I guarantee you that.”
The Wolf Pack face what we feel is an overrated San Jose St team that benefited from +4 TO's vs Arkansas a few weeks ago, a very fortunate cover vs Air Force and +5 TO's vs New Mexico st

**Yellow** · 10-08-2019, 04:00 PM

Essler 3* GOY

Arizona St -2

**Born Tactician** · 10-08-2019, 10:09 PM

Ralph Michaels "Game of the Month" Nevada Wolfpack (-3)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 05:56 AM

+EV: CFB 4u: 157 Mississippi State Bulldogs -6.5 -105 (Saturday, October 12th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 149 Utah Utes -13.5 -112 (Saturday, October 12th)

+EV: CFB 4u: 140 Boise State Broncos -11.5 -105 (Saturday, October 12th)

+EV: CFB 3u: 119 Michigan Wolverines -21.5 -105 (Saturday, October 12th)

+EV: CFB 3u: 126 Oklahoma/Texas un75.5 -110 (Saturday, October 12th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 05:57 AM

Fezzik | CFL Total - Saturday, Oct 12 2019 4:00PM
693 MON / 694 WIN UNDER 48.0 Pinnacledouble-dime bet

Analysis: Weather Play UNDER here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 12:52 PM

NFAC

SATURDAY 10-12-19 =

UFC : LUIS PENA -165...($750) via Pinnacle

UFC : RYAN SPANN -140...($600) via 5Dimes

UFC : MAX GRIFFIN -145...($600) via BetOnline

UFC : GERALD MEERSCHAERT +140...($600) via 5Dimes

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-09-2019, 07:46 PM

+EV: CFB 4u: 187 UAB Blazers -11.5 -110 (Saturday, October 12th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-10-2019, 01:43 PM

'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 7 college football picks, bets, nuggets

College football season is in full swing, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica to continue their prognostications.
In this file, they break down Week 7 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 7 picks. The Bear is 9-0 the last two weeks. Enjoy Week 7.
The plays

Stanford Steve (2-3 last week, 17-11-2 overall)

The Bear (4-0 last week, 14-11-1 overall)

Charlotte 49ers at Florida International Panthers (-5.5, 61)
Stanford Steve: The 49ers are off a bye week and the Panthers are fresh off a win over UMass. Both teams are still looking for their first win in conference play. Charlotte is 0-4 vs. FIU, losing the last three by a total of nine points, which includes two one-point losses. The 49ers' new regime under Will Healy leads C-USA and ranks in the top 30 in FBS in scoring at 35.8 PPG and rushing yards per game at 219. They also have had great success when getting to the red zone, scoring 14 TDs on 17 trips. I think the 49ers can win the game, but we'll take the points.
Pick: Charlotte +5.5. Charlotte 31 FIU 29

North Texas Mean Green at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-3.5, 58.5)
Stanford Steve: Both teams start conference play off a bye after playing some good competition in nonconference play. Plenty of people thought the Mean Green would win their side of Conference USA, but they have plenty of doubters now after they got handled by the Houston Cougars. Houston started a new quarterback and gave it to North Texas, returning a punt and a kickoff for a touchdown and winning 46-25. You have to think head coach Seth Littrell, who was a hot commodity in the offseason, got his team grounded during the bye week and got their attention. They have plenty of talent, led by quarterback Mason Fine, who has already thrown for 1,200 yards and 11 touchdowns. I like the Mean Green to cover on the road.
Pick: North Texas +3.5. North Texas 28, Southern Miss 27

Ole Miss Rebels at Missouri Tigers (-12.5)
The Bear: The introduction of quarterback John Rhys Plumlee has added a dimension to the Rebels offense that Rich Rodriguez can utilize. Factor in the loss of linebacker Cale Garrett for the Tigers and Missouri's task is a bit tougher. Outside of the game against Alabama, Ole Miss' defense hasn't played too poorly, and I'd imagine they are probably kicking themselves for close losses to Memphis and Cal. I think the Rebels hang around here.
Pick: Ole Miss +12.5

USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11)
The Bear: The Trojans outgained Washington in Seattle two weeks ago but were done in by three Matt Fink interceptions and one 89-yard run by Salvon Ahmed (his other 16 carries netted 64 yards). Kedon Slovis is back for USC at quarterback, and he's got some weapons at wide receiver if injuries to Notre Dame's Shaun Crawford and Daelin Hayes affect the Irish defense against a much better offensive unit than they faced last week in Bowling Green. Will the return of Irish running back Jafar Armstrong boost a unit that managed just 322 total yards against Virginia and 321 at Georgia? If the Trojans can avoid the game-altering turnover they suffered at Washington -- and the ones Virginia did itself in with two weeks ago -- they can hang around here.
Pick: USC +11

Iowa State Cyclones (-10) at West Virginia Mountaineers
The Bear: According to our power rankings, Iowa State is a top-20 team. West Virginia is outside the top 70. The Cyclones haven't run it very well this year, but the Mountaineers haven't fared too well against the run, nor have they forced too many turnovers. Quarterback Brock Purdy could give them fits. Iowa State ate apart a much better West Virginia offense last year, and if the Mountaineers continue to throw interceptions, it will likely mean a second straight double-digit home loss.
Pick: Iowa State -10
Stay-away games

The Bear

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (-2, 43.5)
Last week Miami fell behind Virginia Tech 28-0 and turned the ball over four times in its first 13 plays. Last year in Charlottesville, N'Kosi Perry completed five of his six passes -- two were to Cavaliers. The Hurricanes' season appears to be spiraling downward. And yet the Canes are 2-point favorites? Run away. Run far away from this one.

Washington State Cougars at Arizona State Sun Devils (PK, 59)
The Cougars allowed 67 points to UCLA. Not much else needs to be said.

Colorado State Rams (-3, 66.5) at New Mexico Lobos
A true test of the adage, "If there's a game on a Friday night, you have to bet it." No, you don't.

Kent State Golden Flashes (-14.5, 57.5) at Akron Zips
Kent State spent two of the last three weeks getting beat up by Auburn and Wisconsin. Sure, in between the two it pummeled Bowling Green. But do you really want to lay more than TD? Or feel good about taking the Flashes with a punchless Akron team?
Stanford Steve

Washington State Cougars at Arizona State Sun Devils (-1, 58.5)
A 12:30 p.m. Pacific kickoff time in Tempe and the Sun Devils haven't played against any kind of offense... and on the other side you have a new defensive coordinator for Wazzu after an interesting resignation. Go have fun with that game.

UMass Minutemen at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-32, 62.5)
The worst 4-1 team in the country is giving 32 points to the worst team in college football, not named Akron. No thanks.
Stanford Steve's no-brainer over to take

Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon Ducks (-21, 58.5)
I like the situation here for the Ducks. I know they have hated rival Washington up next in Seattle, but last week had to leave a bad taste in the Ducks' mouth, as they beat Cal 17-7 despite three first-half turnovers. The offense is now as healthy as its been and you have to feel they want to get out to a good start vs. the undermanned Buffaloes, build up a lead and maybe coast to the end, leaving the back door open for plenty of points. The last time the Buffs played in Eugene, it was quarterback Steven Montez's first career start -- and Colorado won as a monster underdog, so he will not be fazed by the atmosphere, but I think his defense might be. For the record, the road team is 5-14 in Pac-12 conference road games on Friday night. I like the over.
Pick: Over 58.5. Oregon 42 Colorado 21 (over 58.5)
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

Eight-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 returns $67.41.
Oregon -1600
Indiana -5000
Toledo -3500
Michigan -2500
Georgia -2500
LSU -500
Alabama -800
Clemson -3500
The Bear's underdogs to play on the ML and/or in a parlay or round-robin

Louisville +195
Temple +185
Northern Illinois +210
Michigan State +330
Ole Miss +400
USC +320
Arizona +180
The Bear: If you had to play one or two, who ya got?

Connecticut +34 at Tulane or Massachusetts +32 at Louisiana Tech
Stanford Steve's weeknight teaser

UL Monroe +6.5
Oregon -10.5
Virginia +12
Bear Bytes

What is Florida up against?
Dating back to 2010, the last 12 ranked teams to pull a home upset and face another ranked team as an underdog the following week are 1-11 SU, 4-8 ATS. The only win came in 2014 with Ole Miss at A&M the week after the Rebels upset Alabama.
Aggies typically don't win these games
Texas A&M is 2-9 since 2000 at Kyle Field as a ranked team vs. a top-10 opponent. Among teams that have played at least four games meeting that criteria, only Tennessee (1-7) has a worse record in that span.
Dogging it
Texas has been an underdog each of the last six years vs. Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry Game and has covered all six games, winning three times outright. OU did cover in the Big 12 Championship Game last year.
Texas vs. Oklahoma in Red River Rivalry Game:
2018, Texas +7.5, Won by 3
2017, Texas +9.5, Lost by 5
2016, Texas +11, Lost by 5
2015, Texas +16.5, Won by 7
2014, Texas +15.5, Lost by 5
2013, Texas +13, Won by 16
Unchartered territory
The only time since 1978 that Florida State has been a 20-point dog was in Bobby Bowden's final regular-season game. The Seminoles were +25 at Florida in 2009. FSU lost that game 37-10 to the Gators.
Humbled Huskies?
Washington is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven Pac-12 road games as a favorite. That includes three outright losses as a a favorite of at least 12.5 points. The last time Washington went to Tucson, in 2016, the Huskies needed OT to win as a 14-point favorite against an Arizona team that finished 3-9.
Tidal wave
The only other time Tulane has been a 30-point favorite over an FBS team came in 1998 when the Green Wave were a 37-point favorite over UL Lafayette. Tulane is favored by 34 over Connecticut.
Devil of a time
In its last 10 games as a favorite, Duke is 0-10 ATS and lost nine of them straight-up. Going back further, in the Blue Devils' last game 17 games as a favorite, they are 2-15 ATS with 13 outright losses. That will be tested this week vs. Georgia Tech.
Golden era
Kent State is a 14.5-point favorite vs. Akron. It's the biggest favorite Kent State has been over an FBS team since 2013 when the Golden Flashes were an 18-point favorite over Miami (OH).
Give a hoot
Since 2015, Temple is 17-5 ATS with 11 outright wins as an underdog. Included in that is a 20-17 win over Maryland earlier this year as a 5.5-point underdog.
U got it?
Utah has lost four of its last six Pac-12 road games in which it was favored. Included in that is a 30-23 loss at USC in September.
Spartans usually bounce back after a loss
Excluding the 2016 3-9 outlier season for Michigan State, in the Spartans' last 11 games immediately following a double-digit loss they have 10 wins and one loss, by a field goal last year at Nebraska.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-10-2019, 01:43 PM

Best bets for Week 7 college football games

Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the seventh full week of the college football season:
Season ATS records:
Connelly: 12-6-1 (2-1 last week)
Kezirian: 22-17 (5-4 last week)
Johnson: 16-14-1 (3-2 last week)
Steele: 13-19 (4-1 last week)
Note: Picks from Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Thursday's game

ULM Warhawks (-3.5) at Texas State Bobcats

Johnson: I have seven sides that I really like this week, so I will keep these brief and offer up my personal projections on each game. I'm still a believer in this Texas State team, and coming off of a bye week following back-to-back wins isn't a time to shy away. I have this projected nearly a 50-50 game with the Bobcats +0.3, so getting the hook on a key number like three is automatic here.
ATS pick: Texas State +3.5
Friday's game

Virginia Cavaliers at Miami Hurricanes (-2)

Kezirian: Miami will not begin this game as flat as it did against Virginia Tech, where it dug itself a 28-0 hole. However, I am not convinced the Hurricanes have much offensive firepower. Aside from the brand name and a catchy "turnover chain," there is not much to like with this inconsistent team. The defense has been somewhat impressive, but it has really shut down only weak teams. They could not get a stop to seal a win over UNC, and clearly the defense was porous against the Hokies.
N'Kosi Perry will start at quarterback in place of Jarren Williams. He looked better than Williams but not enough for me to change my opinion. I just love the situational spot for the Cavaliers. Virginia squandered chances to upset Notre Dame but now enters this game off a bye and is still undefeated in ACC play. I think UVA wins, but the better option is a teaser, especially with such a low total of 44. I envision a one-score game, so I will play my first college teaser in about two years.
Pick: Teaser of Virginia (+8) and Minnesota (-1.5)
Saturday's games

Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-13.5)

Kezirian: Following Florida's impressive win over unbeaten Auburn, I was hoping this line would be closer to 10; unfortunately, no such luck. I still think this is a strong play, given the situation. The Tigers cruised to a home win over Utah State, and the Gators battled and grinded to beat Auburn. We have seen teams in these situations run out of gas the following week, and I think that happens here. Additionally, I just feel LSU is superior on both sides of the ball and it finally has an offense that can cover a big spread against a quality opponent.
The game might be close at halftime, but LSU should pull away and win by more than two touchdowns. It's just tough for me to envision Florida's backup quarterback playing that well in a night game at Death Valley.
ATS pick: LSU -13.5
Connelly: I guess if I'm going to write about how we've been underrating the Gators, I should put my Best Bets record where my mouth is. I'd obviously feel far more comfortable with this line at 14 points, but this is still another game in which the projection is far tighter than the line: SP+ projects LSU to win by 7.7, nearly six points lower.
Four of Florida's six results have come within a touchdown of the SP+ projection, and the two that didn't were examples of Gators overachievement -- they were projected to win by 18.6 against Tennessee and won by 31, and they were projected to win by 2.3 against Auburn and won by 11 (despite four turnovers).
It's easy to see how this pick goes awry, of course; LSU passes far better than anyone else Florida has played, and while the Tigers' tempo isn't exactly Josh Heupel-level, it's far faster than normal. If the Tigers find advantages, they could exploit them repeatedly. But Florida can score, too, and I'm going to keep thinking oddsmakers are underselling the Gators until they give me a reason not to.
ATS pick: Florida +13.5

South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs (-24.5)

Kezirian: This is a good spot to back South Carolina. The Gamecocks are off a bye and have a strong enough defense to prevent a complete blowout. Georgia is undoubtedly among the nation's best teams, but I have been fairly underwhelmed with the Bulldogs in certain areas. Their offensive line has struggled in some short-yardage situations against inferior opponents, and the offense seems to sputter more often than one would imagine. All of this is in relation to their lofty standards.
With a big number like this, Georgia's tendency to chew clock in the second half of one-sided games might allow a backdoor cover. They obviously have the talent to blow out the Gamecocks, but I think this is a good time to take the 'dog against the Dawgs.
ATS pick: South Carolina +24.5
Connelly: This pick is far more about South Carolina than Georgia -- the Dawgs are probably going to win pretty comfortably. But the Gamecocks were better than their score indicated the past two games.
I calculate an adjusted scoring margin for each game based on the key predictive indicators that go into SP+; the 20-point loss to Missouri should have been more like a seven-point loss, and the 17-point win over Kentucky was close to something far more dominant. And that was with freshman quarterback Ryan Hilinski dealing with an elbow injury. It was improving into Kentucky week, and the Gamecocks got a bye week after that.
South Carolina is a solid top-40 team, and SP+ projects Georgia with about a 19-point advantage. SP+ is hitting 60% against the spread in games in which it and the line are five or more points apart; they're at 5.6 in this one. If you're monitoring this in-game, pay attention to how well Georgia is running the ball. The Dawgs obviously have an awesome run game, and South Carolina's run front, though pretty efficient so far this year, is pretty banged up and thin. If D'Andre Swift is gaining seven or eight yards at will, this becomes far less of a best bet.
ATS pick: South Carolina +24.5

Oklahoma Sooners (-11) vs. Texas Longhorns (in Dallas)

Kezirian: Tom Herman is 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog, and he has covered in six straight Red River Rivalry games. As much as I love Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma has played soft defenses this year and been able to name the score. This Texas defense will show much more resistance, and I am not convinced Jalen Hurts is a polished passer. I trust his poise -- he played in huge games with Alabama -- but we will learn a lot about his passing ability Saturday. I also think the Longhorns might be a better team. I was thoroughly impressed with their performance in the loss to LSU, and I trust Herman and Sam Ehlinger to have enough to cover.
ATS pick: Texas +11

Penn State Nittany Lions (-3.5) at Iowa Hawkeyes

Steele: Kinnick Stadium at night can be a house of horrors for visiting teams. Iowa knocked off No. 2 Michigan in 2016 at night, and in 2017 beat No. 3 Ohio State 55-24. In its past eight home matchups against top-10 teams, Iowa is 4-4 straight up but has lost only one of those games by more than three points; they are getting 3.5 points here. Iowa was very uncharacteristic with a minus-3 turnover margin last week, but that was on the road and QB Nate Stanley had zero interceptions before last week. The Hawkeyes defense is giving up only 254 yards per game and held Michigan to 10 points last week. Iowa has taken on the tougher schedule, has the more veteran QB and pulls yet another upset in Kinnick.
ATS pick: Iowa +3.5
Score: Iowa 20, Penn State 17
Johnson: I project this game to be a pick 'em. Quarterback Nate Stanley mustered only three points for Iowa in Ann Arbor in their matchup against Michigan, but it was arguably the worst game of his career. The Hawkeyes' defense was in check (they've given up only 44 points through five games this season), and I think the best comparison to Iowa is a Pittsburgh team that Penn State struggled to put away at home earlier in the year. Iowa is better than Pittsburgh anyway, and the Hawkeyes are playing this one at Kinnick.
The current market number implies that the Nittany Lions are roughly 7-point favorites on a neutral field, and that just isn't the case at all, in my opinion. The Hawkeyes getting over a field goal is one of my biggest bets of the college football season.
ATS pick: Iowa +3.5

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-7.5)

Kezirian: I am not overreacting to last week's losing pick on Nebraska, as I suffered through the Huskers' failed cover against lowly Northwestern. I am just merely evaluating the data points, which portray a team that cannot string together four quality quarters. The Huskers are shaky on offense, and QB Adrian Martinez constantly looks skittish and lacks receivers who can get open. He is questionable for this game, but backup Noah Vedral is familiar with the offense, having transferred from UCF.
The defense has been respectable at times, but this team just is not good enough to face an undefeated Minnesota team on the road and keep this within one score. I realize the Gophers lack flash and have had some miraculous wins to remain undefeated, but they are still significantly more reliable and polished than Nebraska.
ATS pick: Minnesota -7.5
Steele: Martinez is questionable, but as Doug notes Vedral knows the offense well after spending time with Scott Frost at UCF. The Huskers could sneak in some reps for Luke McCaffrey (Christian's brother), who is one of the top athletes on the team. Vedral was thrust into action last week and led the winning drive against Northwestern. Nebraska has also taken on the much tougher schedule up to this point. Minnesota blew out Illinois last week and had 239 more yards; Nebraska beat Illinois by only four points despite outgaining the Illini 690-299.
Minnesota is 5-0 and No. 26 in the rankings and might start to feel a little pressure as the Gophers are beginning to earn national attention. Despite the soft schedule, only one of the Gophers' wins has been by more than seven points.
ATS pick: Nebraska +7.5
Score: Minnesota 31, Nebraska 30

Washington Huskies (-6.5) at Arizona Wildcats

Steele: Washington has a young defense, and through three Pac-12 games this year, they are giving up 387 yards per game (compared to the 305 they gave up last year). The Huskies are allowing 4.3 yards per carry, which is the highest of the Chris Petersen era. Quarterback Jacob Eason has been great in nonconference games, completing 78% of his passes with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. However, in three Pac-12 games he is completing 54% with just a 1-2 TD-INT ratio. Washington is 1-2 in conference play and traveling for a second straight week. Arizona is atop the Pac-12 South standings, and last week dynamic QB Khalil Tate returned and threw for 404 yards in the win over Colorado. The home team is 8-2 ATS in the previous 10 matchups, winning eight of the past nine outright.
ATS pick: Arizona +6.5
Score: Arizona 31, Washington 30

Maryland Terrapins (-3) at Purdue Boilermakers

Steele: Maryland has been somewhat predictable in the past two years. When matched up against an average to below-average rush defense, the Terrapins look unstoppable. Maryland has topped 165 yards rushing in nine games the previous two years and put up 50.8 PPG in those contests. But when facing a solid rush defense, the Terps struggle. Purdue lost its top two defenders this year and is allowing opponents to gain 56 yards per game above their season average.
My computer has Maryland topping 200 rushing yards in this game. Though QB Josh Jackson is out for Maryland, Tyrrell Pigrome started at Texas in 2017 and against Ohio State last year, and the Terps put up 51 points in each of those games. Purdue has a weak rushing attack, averaging just 51 yards per game on the ground and 1.9 yards per carry. The Boilermakers lost starting QB Elijah Sindelar against Minnesota, and unlike Maryland, there is a significant drop-off without him under center. The Boilermakers have totaled eight first downs in each of Jack Plummer's two starts, and averaged only 154 yards per game. Purdue is banged up on the offensive line and at receiver this week, to go along with its QB and defensive injuries.
ATS pick: Maryland -3
Score: Maryland 34, Purdue 17

North Texas Mean Green at Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (-4)

Connelly: We'll consider this North Texas' last stand as far as SP+ is concerned. It projected the Mean Green as one of the better teams in Conference USA, and they've oscillated between rewarding that faith (42-point win over UTSA, solid six-point loss at Cal) and making it seem totally unfounded (22-point loss to SMU, 21-point loss to D'Eriq King-less Houston). They've been as high as 54th and as low as 91st so far; SP+ favors UNT by 2.1 in this one, but it doesn't have a great read on the Mean Green just yet.
Southern Miss, however, has been a far more steady entity. The SP+ projection has been within nine points of the final margin in all five games so far, and if that were to continue, that suggests a range of outcomes from about USM by 7 to UNT by 9. Most of that range falls within covering North Texas.
ATS pick: North Texas +4

Ball State Cardinals at Eastern Michigan Eagles (PK)

Steele: Last week's results give up some solid line value here. Ball State is playing well this year and is coming off a big road upset over Northern Illinois but has to go back on the road this week. Last week, Ball State trailed the Huskies 17-3 at the half and was outgained 388-269 but came out on top. Eastern Michigan was coming off a bye week and looked sluggish in its 42-16 road loss to Central Michigan. On Sept. 14, the Eagles went on the road and beat Illinois 34-31 in a game they led 31-17. The next week at home, they struggled to beat an FCS team, as most teams suffer a letdown after a big upset.
The Eagles have won five of their past six MAC home games on the gray turf of Rynearson Stadium, while Ball State is 3-14 straight up on the road in MAC play the past five years. Eastern Michigan has wins over Ball State by 42 and 22 points, respectively, in the teams' past two meetings. The Eagles were the underdog earlier in the week, so they will feel like a home underdog and are in a must-win situation.
ATS pick: Eastern Michigan (PK)
Score: Eastern Michigan 34, Ball State 28

Toledo Rockets (-26) at Bowling Green Falcons

Johnson: I have been fortunate enough to stay away from this Bowling Green trainwreck to this point in the season (0-4 ATS against FBS opponents). It's one thing to lose 52-0 on the road to Kansas State and Notre Dame, but it's another to lose by 42 at Kent State. The Falcons are in a battle with UConn and UTEP for the right to be the third-worst team in college football this season. Considering I haven't shown any value in recent weeks to bet on Bowling Green despite its troubles, I have to trust my numbers here and take the 26 points.
I project the Falcons at +22.7 in the matchup, and that doesn't account for the fact that quarterback Grant Loy could be taking over for Darius Wade under center (he looked better against the Irish last Saturday, and clearly Wade wasn't effective in his five starts this season). Bowling Green has never been a home underdog of 26 points or more, and I think they'll keep it within the number.
ATS pick: Bowling Green +26

Memphis Tigers (-6) at Temple Owls

Johnson: I thought the opener on Sunday afternoon at Temple +3.5 was very close to fair. My projection is +3.3, so a move to +6 against the better defense playing at home with extra days to prepare coming off of a Thursday night game has me a little perplexed. Memphis was actually outgained by 40 yards last week against UL Monroe despite winning the game 52-33. The Tigers are the better team, but they shouldn't be laying a touchdown on the road in Philadelphia.
ATS pick: Temple +6

San Jose State Spartans at Nevada Wolf Pack (-2)

Johnson: This line implies that San Jose State is the better football team on a neutral field. I know the Spartans won outright as a massive underdog in Fayetteville, Arkansas, and they covered as a favorite against a lowly New Mexico team this past Saturday (but were plus-nine in turnovers in those two contests), but I still project the Wolf Pack as the superior team. Coming off of a 51-point home loss to Hawaii is no joke, and that's certainly playing a role in the market reaction to Nevada. My projection is Wolf Pack -6.4, and I'm willing to bet that after an extra week to prepare and sit on the Hawaii loss, we get their best effort.
ATS pick: Nevada -2

USC Trojans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11)

Johnson: With Kedon Slovis getting cleared to play against the Irish this Saturday, I think the Trojans are a buy at +11. He's definitely an upgrade over third-string quarterback Matt Fink, and my projection comes in at +8.7. I'm still not overly impressed with the Notre Dame results to this point, and I'm fine going back to the well betting against the Irish after splitting the two Virginia bets two weeks ago. The Cavaliers led the game outright at halftime, but two Bryce Perkins fumbles for Irish touchdowns and five turnovers in all swung that game Notre Dame's way. I expect the Trojans to keep the turnovers in check with Slovis under center and the game in single digits.
ATS pick: USC +11

Wyoming Cowboys at San Diego State Aztecs (-3.5)

Johnson: I didn't understand the Colorado State money coming in last Saturday against the Aztecs pushing the line from +7.5 down to +6.5. I jumped in to lay the short number and never really needed to sweat. I disagree with the market valuation of San Diego State here. I make this line -6.3, and I'm fine betting against a Wyoming football team getting outgained by 55.3 yards per game despite its 4-1 record.
ATS pick: San Diego State -3.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2019, 12:08 AM

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2019 7:00PM
197 Fresno St. 3.5(-110) Westgate vs 198 Air Force double-dime bet

Analysis: We like the road dog here who has extra time to prep for the option. The Bulldogs are on a 10-1-1 ATS run as an underdog and there only two losses this season came against USC in the opener by 8 and in OT to an unbeaten Minnesota team. Meanwhile, Air Force is off an emotional loss to Navy last week. Navy only had a 376-354 yard edge but did out-rush Air Force 214-108 and had a 6.5-5.0 yards per play advantage. Air Force QB Donald Hammond was 10 of 25 for 205 yards and ran for 77 yards. Navy did score on a fumble return TD on the final play of the game. Outright upset!

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2019 7:30PM
204 Iowa 3.5(-110) Westgate vs 203 Penn St. double-dime bet

Analysis: Last week Penn St had 24-8 first down and 460-104 yard edges including 196-(-19) on the ground in their 35-7 win over Purdue. The Nittany Lions had 10 sacks, one shy of the program’s single-game record. On the other side, Iowa QB Nate Stanley had his worst game of his career throwing 3 INT’s and the Hawkeyes lost 10-3 at Michigan. Remember, coming into that game Stanley had thrown 60 TD’s and only 16 INT’s in his career and we expect a bounce back here. Penn St has not played a team in the Top 40 of our power ratings so far this season and their toughest opponent (Pitt) nearly beat them outright. We have a pair of top 5 defenses here and Iowa is 14-6-2 ATS (70%) as a home dog since 2000.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2019 12:00PM
128 Temple 5.5(-110) Westgate vs 127 Memphis single-dime bet

Analysis: Temple has a couple extra days to prep after a Thursday Night win at East Carolina. Temple had 29-21 first down and 490-327 yard edges including 237-98 on the ground but ECU got a back-door cover TD with :29 left. Meanwhile, ULM (Memphis’ opponent) had 30-25 first down and 575-535 yard edges in a 52-33 loss to Memphis last week. Memphis did have a 8.9-6.5 yards per play advantage but only led 39-33 with around 6 minutes left. While Memphis’ D is much improved this year, Temple still has the better D and is getting a TD at home. This total of only 50.5 (Memphis lowest this season) says this game will be lower scoring and that is in Temple’s wheelhouse.

Brad Powers | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 12 2019 12:00PM
126 Texas 11.0(-110) Westgate vs 125 Oklahoma single-dime bet

Analysis: Last week OU looked sluggish in a win over Kansas. Meanwhile, West Virginia had a 463-427 yard edge over Texas, but the Mountaineers were -3 in TO’s. Texas did have a 216-96 rushing yard edge. Yes, OU is No. 1 in the country in Yards Per Play Differential (+4.5). However, Oklahoma has not played a team in the Top 50 of our power ratings so far. Texas is 6-1 ATS vs Oklahoma in their last 7 meetings (all as a dog) and have covered those games by an average of 11.4 ppg. Texas head coach Tom Herman is 13-3 ATS in the underdog role in his career winning 10 of those games outright. If you go back to his days as an O.C. at Iowa St, the last 27 times Herman’s been a part of a coaching staff and in the underdog role, the teams are incredibly 24-3 ATS!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2019, 12:09 AM

Colin Cowherd’s Marquee 3 (1-2 last week, 6-9 overall)

Notre Dame -10
Iowa +3.5
LSU -13 (says his biggest college game of the year so far)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2019, 12:09 AM

Dr chuck

Navy

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2019, 12:09 AM

+EV: CFB 4u: 145 New Mexico State Aggies +10.5 -113 (Buy Half Point to -115, otherwise play +10) (Saturday, October 12th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-11-2019, 12:20 AM

Doc Sports

college

7-arizona+6.5
4-nevada-2.5
3-army-4.5
3-cinn-7
2-florida+13.5

Service Plays Saturday 10/12/19

Service Plays Saturday 10/12/19

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