Sunday 10-6-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 08:41 PM

Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

National Football League Week 4 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 6-8
Against the Spread 3-11

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 3-11
Against the Spread 5-9

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 6-8

National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 37-24-1
Against the Spread 24-37-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 26-35-1
Against the Spread 20-41-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 28-34

The largest underdogs to win straight up
Buccaneers (+9.5, ML +375) at Rams, 55-40
Browns (+7, ML +280) at Ravens, 40-25
Panthers (+5.5, ML +210) at Texans, 16-10
Raiders (+5.5, ML +210) at Colts, 31-24
Eagles (+3.5, ML +170) at Packers, 34-27
Titans (+3.5, ML +160) at Falcons, 24-10

The largest favorite to cover
Chargers (-14.5) at Dolphins, 30-10
Seahawks (-5.5) at Cardinals, 27-10
Giants (-3) vs. Redskins, 24-3

Living Up To The Hype

-- The Cleveland Browns (+7, ML +280) hit the road for a key AFC North battle against the Baltimore Ravens, and their struggling offense finally hit its stride. The Browns entered the day with 49 points scored through three games, or 16.3 PPG, but they erupted for 40 in this one to help the books immensely. The Browns are now 0-2 SU/ATS in two games at home and 2-0 SU/ATS in two games on the road.

Cleveland posted 193 rushing yards, 337 passing yards and 22 first downs with no fumbles lost and just one interception. The lack of turnovers was key in their road win, and they at least cut their penalties down to a manageable six for 41 yards. Cleveland's red-zone efficiency was a solid 4-for-5, something they could have used more help with against the Rams last Sunday night.

Ram It

-- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled up a franchise-record 55 points in their win on the road against the Los Angeles Rams, winning outright as 9.5-point underdogs (ML +375). The Bucs offense has improved every week, scoring 17 points in Week 1, 20 points in Week 2, 31 points in Week 3 and 55 points in Week 4. Unfortunately for the Bucs, they'll need to figure out their defensive problems if they wish to continue winning. They're allowing 29.3 PPG through four outings, including at least 31 points in three of the four contests.

Total Recall

-- The 'under' will outperform the 'over' in Week 4, regardless of what happens in the Monday Night Football contest.

The highest total on the board was the Kansas City Chiefs-Detroit Lions (54.5) lived up to the hype, as the Chiefs outlasted the Lions 34-30 at Ford Field, as the Chiefs dealt the Lions their first straight-up loss of the season. It was amazing that the 'over' connected considering that QB Patrick Mahomes failed to throw or run for a touchdown in the game. The second-highest total on the board, the Seattle Seahawks-Arizona Cardinals (49) saw a scoreless third quarter keep the lid on the scoring, ending up going under by 12 points. The two games at 48 or 48.5, the Bucs-Rams (48.5) and Washington Redskins-New York Giants (48) were completely different results. The 'Skins mustered just three points in a 24-3 loss, while the Bucs-Rams saw 95 total points, easily the highest scoring game of the 2019 season. It was the highest-scoring game in the NFL since 105 points were put up in the Chiefs-Rams game on Nov. 19, 2018.

-- On the flip side, the lowest total on the board was the Jacksonville Jaguars-Denver Broncos (37) game, which was a very entertaining affair. QB Gardner Minshew led the Jags to a 26-24 comeback win, including 20 points in the second half. The other game with a total in the 30's, the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (38) game, ended up with a just 22 points, and the Bears nearly pitched the shutout until the Vikings scored in the final few minutes to make it 16-6.

-- The 'over/under' went 1-1 in the first two primetime games of Week 4, with the Monday Night Football contest between the Cincinnati Bengals-Pittsburgh Steelers (44.5) still pending. The 'over' is 3-9 (25.0%) during the early 2019 primetime schedule, a stark change from previous seasons when the games under the lights were high-scoring affairs. The 'under' is a perfect 5-0 for Sunday Night Football this season.

Officially, the 'over' finished 26-25 (51.0%) in 51 games under the lights.

In 2017, the 'over' finished 25-23-1 (52.1%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2016, the 'over' in night games went (52.9%) through 51 games.

In 2015, the 'over' finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games.

In 2014, the 'over' went 33-17 (66.0%) in primetime games, and the 'over' was 28-22 (56.0%) in 2013.

Injury Report

-- Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) suffered a left shoulder injury early in the game vs. the Vikings, so it was the QB Chase Daniel show to close out the win.

-- Bills QB Josh Allen (concussion) was knocked out of the loss against the Patriots, and the Bills suffered their first setback of the season as a result.

-- Lions TE T.J. Hockenson (head) attempted to hurdle a defender, had his legs taken out, and he banged his head on the turf. Perhaps that will be the end of that move. Maybe not.

Looking Ahead

-- The Rams and Seahawks will square off on Thursday Night Football in Seattle. The Rams have posted a 4-0 ATS mark in their past four road outings, and they're 7-3 ATS in the past 10 inside the division. However, they're also just 1-5 ATS in the past six appearances on TNF. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have posted an impressive 7-0-2 ATS mark in their past nine showings on Thursday, and they're 4-0 ATS in the past four against winning sides. Seattle looks even more impressive when you consider they're 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 battles in the Pacific Northwest.

-- The Buccaneers and Saints will lock horns in the Big Easy on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET. The Bucs won outright and covered in their first road game Sunday in L.A., and they're now 4-0-1 ATS in the past five on the road. The Saints edged the Cowboys 12-10 on Sunday night in a low-scoring affair, but they still got it done and are 2-0 SU/ATS in two games since QB Drew Brees (thumb) went down. QB Teddy Bridgewater is doing enough to get it done. The 'under' has hit in 15 of the past 21 meetings in this series, so perhaps the Saints D, which cooled off the Cowboys, can hold down the Bucs.

-- The Ravens and Steelers will tangle in the Steel City. After Baltimore's straight-up loss at home to the Browns, they're now 0-5 ATS in the past five inside the division. They look to snap that in Pittsburgh, as they're 4-0-1 ATS in the past five trips to Heinz Field, and they're 6-2-1 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series. The 'over' is 13-6-2 ATS in the past 21 meetings in Pittsburgh, too.

-- The Broncos and Chargers will square off in L.A., as Denver finally looks to get it right. They're 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS, including a pair of narrow losses at home on last-second field goals. The Broncos vaunted D hasn't shown up, allowing 23.4 PPG through four outings so far. The Chargers have hit the 'under' in each of their past three outings, too. The under is also 6-0 in the past six battles in Southern California in this series, and 9-4 in the past 13 meetings overall.

-- The Browns won their first appearance on Monday night against the Jets back in Week 2, now they get another shot under the lights in San Francisco. The 49ers are coming off a bye, so they'll be fairly healthy and well-rested, and they get an extra day with the MNF game. That's the first-place 49ers against the first-place Browns. Is this an alternate universe? The Browns are 4-0 ATS in the past four on the road, while the 49ers are 26-7 ATS in the past 33 on MNF. Something's gotta give. Well, the Niners are also 0-6 ATS in the past six following a bye.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 08:42 PM

NFL TRENDS

Sunday, October 6

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 81-55 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (+24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 72-43 ATS (+24.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (3 - 1) vs. OAKLAND (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 147-184 ATS (-55.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ARIZONA (0 - 3 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 3) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 40-61 ATS (-27.1 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (2 - 2) at CAROLINA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (2 - 2) at NY GIANTS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at WASHINGTON (0 - 4) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 264-202 ATS (+41.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 195-148 ATS (+32.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 104-72 ATS (+24.8 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 72-47 ATS (+20.3 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 69-47 ATS (+17.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-94 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 91-122 ATS (-43.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (0 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 2) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 35-54 ATS (-24.4 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (3 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 118-155 ATS (-52.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (0 - 4) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2019, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (3 - 1) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2019, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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INDIANAPOLIS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) - 10/6/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 08:42 PM

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Sunday, October 6

Houston Texans
Houston is 3-4-2 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Atlanta is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
New Orleans is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Orleans's last 13 games
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games at home
New Orleans is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of New Orleans's last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Tampa Bay's last 19 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Tampa Bay's last 21 games when playing New Orleans
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Tennessee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Buffalo
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games
Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tennessee

Carolina Panthers
Carolina is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
Carolina is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Carolina is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games at home
Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 5-9-2 ATS in its last 16 games
Jacksonville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
Jacksonville is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Carolina

Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati

New York Giants
NY Giants is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games
NY Giants is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home
NY Giants is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of NY Giants's last 22 games at home
NY Giants is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Minnesota's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Jets
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing NY Jets
New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 6-11-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh's last 16 games at home
Pittsburgh is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

Washington Redskins
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games at home
Washington is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England
New England Patriots
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Washington

Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 6-18 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games at home
Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
Chicago is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games
Chicago is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oakland
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Chargers is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games
LA Chargers is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
LA Chargers is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 8 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of LA Chargers's last 13 games when playing Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
LA Chargers is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Denver Broncos
Denver is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Denver is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Denver's last 13 games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games on the road
Denver is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 13 games when playing LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers

Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
Dallas is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Dallas's last 10 games at home
Dallas is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Dallas's last 21 games when playing Green Bay
Dallas is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games on the road
Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Green Bay's last 21 games when playing Dallas
Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Green Bay is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Kansas City's last 16 games at home
Kansas City is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Kansas City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road
Indianapolis is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Indianapolis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Kansas City

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 08:42 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Sunday, October 6

Arizona @ Cincinnati

Game 455-456
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
121.000
Cincinnati
122.566
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 4 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(+4 1/2); Over

Atlanta @ Houston

Game 467-468
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
130.329
Houston
132.480
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 5
49
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+5); Over

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans

Game 465-466
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
134.839
New Orleans
135.097
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
Even
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(+3 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ NY Giants

Game 459-460
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
134.320
NY Giants
127.442
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 7
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-4 1/2); Over

Jacksonville @ Carolina

Game 457-458
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
129.588
Carolina
136.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 6 1/2
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 3
41
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-3); Over

Chicago @ Oakland

Game 453-454
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
134.054
Oakland
131.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 2 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 5
40 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+5); Over

New England @ Washington

Game 461-462
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
144.763
Washington
119.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 25 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 15 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-15 1/2); Under

Buffalo @ Tennessee

Game 469-470
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.290
Tennessee
136.988
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
35
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-2 1/2); Under

NY Jets @ Philadelphia

Game 463-464
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
119.201
Philadelphia
136.288
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 17
40
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 13 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-13 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Game 451-452
October 6, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
131.724
Pittsburgh
134.665
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
43
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(+4); Under

Denver @ LA Chargers

Game 471-472
October 6, 2019 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
124.822
LA Chargers
133.249
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 8 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 6
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-6); Under

Green Bay @ Dallas

Game 473-474
October 6, 2019 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
132.199
Dallas
133.772
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(+3 1/2); Over

Indianapolis @ Kansas City

Game 475-476
October 6, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
132.496
Kansas City
139.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 7
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 11
57
Dunkel Pick:
Indianapolis
(+11); Over

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 08:43 PM

Hot & Not Report - Week 5
Matt Blunt

There were some interesting results from the two games covered in last week's piece, as the Chiefs/Lions game was the first to buck that 'under' trend of 2019 with a non-conference home underdog. Even still, that game needed a TD late in the contest by Detroit to sail 'over' the number (before KC scored again).

But it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55-40 wild win out at the Los Angeles Rams that was one that shocked many, but not if you caught the “Who's Not” part last week.

That topic touched on just how bad home favorites have been early in the year prior to a road game on TNF, and the Rams SU and ATS loss pushed home favorites in that pre-TNF road role to 2-10 ATS and 2-10 SU during the first five weeks of the year over the past three seasons. I discussed how there had been some big upset winners in there before, and as a 9-10 point underdog on Sunday, Tampa Bay added themselves to that list of big paydays for those that were ballsy enough to ride that trend.

No rest for the wicked though, as it's on to Week 5's potential spots. And while I did mention that I wasn't intentionally picking on L.A. Rams fans, just that their team kept finding themselves in these situational angles, Rams fans will find their team involved in this week's piece as well.

Staying away from Rams angles is going to have to wait at least another week!

Who's Hot

Playing on 'Unders' after a team scores 40 or more points

1-8 Over/Under since Week 15 of 2018

5-12 O/U since start of 2018 season when it's divisional rivals squaring off

In 2019 alone, this trend is 1-4 O/U overall, as we actually had nobody live in it this past Sunday. Interestingly enough too, is the lone 'over' (New England/New York Jets in Week 3) came after a team (New England) put up their 40+ points and didn't cash an 'over' ticket in the process. That came in their 43-0 win over Miami in Week 2, as that's a rare scenario in of itself.

But generally speaking, getting one side to put up 40 points typically cashes an 'over' ticket along with it, and we've got three different teams fitting this role for Week 5.

I'll begin with the Rams and Buccaneers, who each put up 40 or more points in that wild Sunday afternoon game yesterday. They are somewhat grouped together this week as well, as they are both out on the road, and both squaring off against division foes. Remember, since the start of last year, divisional games that fit this 40+ scenario have hit the 'under' at a 70% clip.

The Rams have that short week ahead of them as we already know, travelling north to Seattle for a big game with the Seahawks. A total of 49 is no slouch of a number for guys on a short week, and considering how many yards quarterback Jared Goff threw for on Sunday (517), and how many points the Rams scored (40) and allowed (55), it's easy to assume there will be plenty of love for the high side of this total as Thursday draws near.

Chances are we could see this number even climb a bit, but it won't be because of support from me if that's the case.

Goff's big day statistically was great, but first and foremost, LA's defense has to tighten things up to avoid putting Goff and the offense in that spot needing so many points. Granted, the three interceptions that Goff threw didn't help things, but getting the defense to turn around things on a short week isn't unfeasible. Can't imagine they took Tampa Bay too seriously given how that game played out, and that just won't be the case with a road divisional game against Seattle this week.

NFL prime time games have still been 'under' machines in 2019 despite a 2-1 O/U record the last three, and with how sloppy these short-week, TNF games can be, I do think going low on this total makes a lot of sense in general. Add in this great 'under' role, and I hope this number climbs.

Tampa Bay's the other team visiting a divisional rival in Week 5, as they take a trip to the Big Easy to face a New Orleans team off a big SNF win. The Saints defense completely wrapped up the Cowboys in that one, and there shouldn't be any worry about them taking Tampa lightly as a divisional foe, and after the offensive performance they put up in LA.

The Bucs total is a little lower at 47.5, and with the way the Saints are trying to win games now with Teddy Bridgewater as a “game manager” QB and the defense doing plenty of the heavy lifting, the 'under' generally makes sense here as well. There is more time to dig into a game like this to either confirm or pass on the low side of this total, but given the history of these 40+ point teams the following week, it's hard not to like going low.

The final team that fits this role in Week 5 of coming off a game where they scored 40+ are the Cleveland Browns. The Browns get the national spotlight treatment once again as they head to San Francisco for MNF, with the 49ers coming off a bye.

The bye week for the 49ers makes things a bit more tricky here as they've had two full weeks to prepare to attack this Browns defense, although the last three times it's been AFC vs NFC in this situational angle with one side coming off a 40+ effort, the 'under' is a perfect 3-0. That includes an 0-2 O/U record this year, with one of those games including the 49ers themselves in their 24-20 win over Pittsburgh last time out.

Who's Not

Backing teams ATS after scoring 40 or more points in their last outing

4-8 ATS (33%) since Week 14 of 2018 and 1-4 ATS (20%) in 2019

Sorry Rams fans, I know the first half of this piece could be taken as positive in terms of your defense turning things around in a few days, and they probably will. But recent history suggests that it probably doesn't turn out to be a SU victory for your team given what the point spread is (+1) and the ATS history the following week for these 40+ point scoring teams.

That being said, the ATS record might be 1-4 ATS this season the following week for these squads, but the SU record is 4-1 SU. All four of those outright winners off a 40+-point day were laying at least -6 in all of those wins though, and only the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 2 win over Oakland was able to bring home the ATS cash. The virtual pick'em point spread here for the Rams/Seahawks game on TNF is a different situation in that regard, so we will just have to see how it plays out.

We already know that Tampa and Cleveland are the other two teams in this spot for Week 5, as both teams are catching a little more than a FG (Tampa +4.5, Cleveland +3.5) for their respective games. Given that the situation does look tougher for Cleveland on paper as it is – an undefeated opponent coming off a bye week and not playing a backup QB – this history does the Browns no favors as well, so we might see another prime time stinker from Cleveland this time next week.

The last five times this scenario has applied to a non-conference game, the team coming into that contest off a 40-point effort is just 1-4 ATS, a run that includes a 0-2 ATS record this season. The 49ers themselves couldn't get it done when they hosted Pittsburgh last time out, and neither could the Ravens in Week 2 when they hosted Arizona.

So Cleveland fans, don't get too over-hyped this week after a great win in Baltimore over the weekend, because we saw the impact a completely full bandwagon for your team can do in their Week 1 blowout loss.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 10:17 PM

NFL Week 5 odds: Book braces for public to come back strong on Chiefs at home vs Colts
Patrick Everson

Patrick Mahomes guided Kansas City to a last-minute TD and win at Detroit on Sunday. The Chiefs, now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, opened as 9.5-point home favorites for their Week 5 tilt against the Colts.

Week 5 of the NFL season has some intriguing matchups that are already seeing some line movement. Covers checks in on the opening odds and early action for a quartet of contests, with insights from John Murray, director of The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)

Kansas City is among just three remaining unbeaten teams, though just barely after Week 4. The Chiefs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) overcame an early 10-0 deficit at Detroit, then got a last-minute touchdown to win a shootout 34-30 as 7.5-point favorites Sunday.

Indianapolis looked surprisingly good the first three weeks of the season, following the stunning retirement of quarterback Andrew Luck. But in Week 4, the Colts (2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) trailed Oakland 14-0 early and never got closer than a touchdown in a 31-24 home loss as 5.5-point faves.

This matchup is in prime time Sunday night, and The SuperBook is bracing for public play on K.C.

“Kansas City was lucky to escape on the road in Detroit,” Murray said. “The Chiefs come home to face a Colts team off a very bad performance of their own in a home loss to the Raiders. Every parlay and teaser will close with K.C. next Sunday night.”

The Chiefs ticked up to -10 in the hour after this line went up, then shortly thereafter went back to -9.5.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Green Bay was in a good spot to remain unbeaten in Week 4, playing at home in the Thursday nighter. But in a back-and-forth battle, the Packers (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t outlast Philadelphia, losing 34-27 as 3.5-point home favorites.

Dallas was also in prime time and aiming to remain perfect in Week 4, playing under the Sunday night spotlight at New Orleans. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) couldn’t find points, though, losing a defensive slog 12-10 laying 2.5 points.

“This game is off the board as the Cowboys play the Saints,” Murray said early Sunday evening, noting that prior to the Cowboys-Saints kickoff, The SuperBook posted Dallas -4.5 against Green Bay. “Both teams were probably a little overvalued off their 3-0 starts. We will learn a lot about the Packers in this game.”

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)

Baltimore could have gained an early foothold on the AFC North, going off as 7.5-point home chalk against Cleveland on Sunday. However, the Ravens (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) gave up 30 second-half points in a 40-25 setback.

Pittsburgh lost QB Ben Roethlisberger to an elbow injury in Week 2 and is still seeking its first victory of the season. The Steelers (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) still have Week 4 work to do, as they host Cincinnati on Monday night. In Week 3 behind backup Mason Rudolph, Pittsburgh nearly pulled a road upset of San Francisco, falling 24-20 as 6-point pups.

“If the Steelers lose to the Bengals on ‘Monday Night Football,’ the line will go up and the public will come in very hard on the Ravens here,” Murray said. “Either way, we will need the ‘dog pretty big.”

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 10:17 PM

Trends - Week 5

Sunday, Oct. 6

BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Road team has covered last five in series, Raves 3-0-1 vs. line last four at Heinz Field. If getting points note Steel has covered last six as dog.
Ravens, based on series trends.

CHICAGO vs. OAKLAND at Tottenham Stadium, London (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Raiders 3-13-1 last 16 as dog away from Coliseum. Oakland also “under” 5-2-1 last eight since late 2018. Bears on 10-1 “under” run. Chicago also 5-2 vs. spread last seven away from home.
“Under” and Bears, based on “totals” and team trends.

ARIZONA at CINCINNATI (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cards 6-3-1 last ten as road dog since late 2017 (1-0 TY). Cincy 4-8 last 12 as home chalk. Bengals on 6-1-2 “under” run after Monday.
Cards and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

JACKSONVILLE at CAROLINA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Minshew now 3-0 vs. line as starter for Jags. Panthers 1-4 vs. spread last five at home, no covers last four as chalk. Jags on 6-3 “under” run.
Jags and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

MINNESOTA at NY GIANTS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Vikes 1-5 vs. spread last six on road. Also “under” 16-6-1 last 23 since late 2017. G-Men 1-6 last seven as MetLife dog but those are Eli numbers; NY 2-0 SU and vs. spread with D Jones in lineup.
Slight to Giants and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

NEW ENGLAND at WASHINGTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Belichick on 6-2 spread run since late 2018, also 11-2 “under” last 12 in reg season. Jay Gruden 3-7 vs. line since late 2018, and “over” 3-1 in 2019.
Patriots and "under,", based on team trends.

NY JETS at PHILADELPHIA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds 1-8 vs. spread last nine at Linc. Philly also “over” 6-2 last 8 since late 2018. Jets on 3-9-1 skid vs. line since mid 2018.
Slight to Jets, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bucs on 7-3 “under” run since late 2018. Teams have split last 8 vs. spread. Saints only one cover last six at Superdome.
Slight to “under” and Bucs, based on “totals” and team trends.

ATLANTA at HOUSTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcs now on 4-14 reg season spread run on road since 2017. Texans on 9-4-1 spread run reg season since mid 2018 though have failed to cover in first 2 at home this term. Houston also “under” last five at NRG.
Texans and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BUFFALO at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bills 4-0-1 vs. spread last five on road. Buff interestingly 5-1 vs. spread last six after facing Pats. Bills also on 6-1 “under” run since late 2018 as well. Titans 4-7 last 11 vs. line since mid 2018, 1-3 last four as home chalk.
Bills and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

DENVER at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Denver on 5-15 spread skid as visitor since late 2016. Broncos also on 11-2 “under” run. Last three “under” in series. Bolts just 2-8 last 10 as Carson chalk since LY.
“Under,” based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Dak has won and covered 4 of last 5 reg season games, 9-2-1 last 12 vs. line in reg season. Pack 10-19-1 as dog since 2013 but Rodgers absent for part of that stretch.
Slight to Cowboys, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at KANSAS CITY (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Chiefs 12-2 vs. spread in first five of games of seasons. Indy 3-1 vs. line TY and 6-2 last 8 reg season. Chiefs on 8-2 “over” run in reg season. Playoff rematch!
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 10:17 PM

IMPACT INJURIES AND NFL ODDS: WHO'S IN AND OUT IN WEEK 5
PATRICK EVERSON

Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) was a full participant in Friday's practice, but he's still questionable at Tennessee. The Bills are +3, but could adjust to +2.5 if Allen starts and +3.5 if he sits.

As the NFL heads toward its 13-game Sunday slate, Friday’s injury report shed some light on the status of several key players. We go behind the counter to see how that information impacted the odds, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Bills: Quarterback Josh Allen (concussion) practiced Friday, but he’s still questionable at Tennessee. Buffalo is currently +3, with a total of 38.5. The SuperBook expects to move to +2.5 if Allen plays and to +3.5 if he sits. “It’s more of a significant move because of the key number,” Osterman said.

Packers: Wideout Davante Adams is out against the Cowboys with a toe injury, and running back Jamaal Williams will sit while in concussion protocol. The SuperBook made no moves off the Adams news and figured Williams would be out, so that was built into the opening line of Packers +4.5. Currently, Green Bay is +3.5, with a total of 47.

Cowboys: The offensive line will be without Tyron Smith (ankle), and fellow tackle La’el Collins (back) is questionable. Those concerns led only to an adjustment on the juice, with the Cowboys currently -3.5 (even) rather than the flat -110.

Colts: Indianapolis’ skill positions are dinged heading into the Sunday night game at Kansas City. Wideout T.Y. Hilton (quad) and running back Marlon Mack (ankle) are both questionable. The SuperBook expects both to play, but noted the line could adjust a half-point if Hilton sits out. Indy is +11, and the total is 56.

Chiefs: Tyreek Hill (shoulder) is out this week, and fellow wideout Sammy Watkins (shoulder/hamstring) is questionable. If Watkins sits, too, The SuperBook would tighten the line a half-point. The Chiefs are currently -11.

Bears: With Mitch Trubisky out after dislocating his left shoulder last week, Chase Daniel starts in London against the Raiders. But since Trubisky wasn’t playing particularly well, The SuperBook had no adjustment due to his absence. The Bears are -5.5, with the total at 40.5.

Patriots: Wideout Julian Edelman (chest) and running back Rex Burkhead (foot) are questionable but hardly a concern for The SuperBook, as New England faces winless Washington. “No effect. The Patriots have the weapons to fill in.” The Pats are laying 15, with a total of 42.

Giants: There was hope that running back Saquon Barkley would return this week, after sitting out the Week 4 win over Washington. But Barkley’s high ankle sprain will require at least another week to heal, and The SuperBook assumed he’d be out with its opening line of Giants +4.5. New York is now +5, with a total of 43.5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 10:17 PM

NFL

Week 5

Rams (3-1) @ Seattle (3-1)— Rams turned ball over seven times (-5) in their last two games; they got shredded for 55 points in home loss to Bucs LW- Tampa Bay converted 8-13 3rd down plays. Under McVay, LA is 4-3 ATS coming off a loss, 3-1 as road underdogs, 4-2 in NFC West road games. Seahawks are off to 3-1 start, despite trailing three of the four games at halftime; their foes converted only 9 of last 31 third down plays. Seattle is 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite; their last three games were all against rookie or backup QB’s. Rams won last three series games, scoring 42-33-36 points; they won three of last four visits to Seattle.

Ravens (2-2) @ Steelers (1-3)— Baltimore allowed 1,033 yards, 73 points in losing its last two games; in their last three games, Ravens allowed 7.7/7.9/10.5 yards/pass attempt- they’re 5-10-1 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog. Baltimore has run ball for 205.8 ypg; three of their four games went over. Pittsburgh had little resistance in its win Monday night; Steelers are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite. Pitt still hasn’t run the ball for more than 81 yards in a game this year; they’ve converted only 12-44 third down plays, but haven’t allowed a first half TD in their last two games. Steelers won four of last five series games, but Ravens are 3-2 in last five visits to Steel City.

Bears (3-1) vs Raiders (2-2) (@ London)— Oakland traded LB Kahlil Mack to the Bears last summer; this is their first meeting since. Bears’ backup QB Daniel has been in NFL for 10 years, but this will be only his 5th NFL start (2-2)- he started two games LY. Chicago won its last three games, outscoring foes 44-6 in first half; they’re +7 in turnovers in those games. Under is 3-1 in Chicago games. Oakland split its first four games, scoring 10-14 in losses, 24-31 in wins- Raiders allowed 28-34-24 points in last three games. This is Oakland’s third straight road game, albeit a neutral site; Raiders are 9-17-2 ATS in last 28 games as a dog. Teams split 14 meetings overall.

Cardinals (0-3-1) @ Bengals (0-4)— How are the Bengals favored over anyone located south of Saskatchewan? Cincy is 0-4, scoring six TD’s on 45 drives, with 16 sacks allowed, 19 3/outs, and a -5 turnover ratio- they were outscored 48-13 in first half of their last three games. Brngals are 4-8 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite. Cardinals lost their last three games, and were down 24-6 in the game they tied; Redbirds are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog. Murray has been sacked 20 times in his first four games. Arizona won three of last four series games, but lost six of seven visits here, wth last one in ’11- their last win in Cincy was in ‘07.

Jaguars (2-2) @ Panthers (2-2)— Battle of backup QB’s here. Jaguars split their two road games, which were decided by total of 3 points- they’re 10-8-1 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog. Jax ran ball for 269 yards in Denver LW; they’ve converted only 9 of last 38 third down plays, but are 3-0 ATS in Minshew’s starts. Carolina is 2-0 SU with Allen at QB; they’re 8-11 ATS in last 19 games as a home favorite. Road team won all four Carolina games; they’ve turned ball over eight times in four games (-1). Teams split six meetings, with home side 4-2 in those games; Jaguars lost two of three visits here, with all three games decided by six or fewer points.

Vikings (2-2) @ Giants (2-2)— Vikings are 0-2 on road, scoring 16-6 points, turning ball over six times (-4); they ran ball for 193.7 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, but were held to 40 YR in Chicago LW. Minnesota is 10-6 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite. Giants are 2-0 with rookie QB Jones starting, scoring 32-24 points; they covered once in their last seven games as a home underdog. Big Blue was 5-23 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2; they’re 14-26 in Jones’ two starts. Minnesota won six of last eight series games, last five of which were decided by 16+ points. Vikings won four of last six visits here; last one was in 2013.

Patriots (4-0) @ Redskins (0-4)— Over last 20 years. favorites are 5-2 ATS in Week 5 games if an unbeaten team plays a winless team. Patriots won last three series games by 45-7-17 points; they won 34-27 in last visit here, back in 2011. New England has been awesome so far, allowing one TD on 48 drives; three of their four wins are by 16+ points. NE has eight takeaways in two road wins (+6); they’re 4-6 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite. Redskins are overmatched here; their QB’s are awful- Skins scored 3 points LW vs a Giant defense that allowed 31.3 ppg in Weeks 1-3. Washington was outscored 45-6 in first half of its last two games.

Jets (0-3) @ Eagles (2-2)— Darnold (mono) is a ??? here; his conditioning can’t be good. Jets lost eight of last ten post-bye games (3-7 ATS); they started three different QB’s in their losses this year- Falk likely gets his 2nd NFL start here. Jets are 7-12-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road dog, 1-0 this year. Eagles split their first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; they’re 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite. Three of their four games went over the total. Eagles have converted 32-57 third down plays this year. Philly won last 10 series games by average score of 27-17; Jets lost last five trips here, with last one in 2011.

Buccaneers (2-2) @ Saints (3-1)— Tampa Bay had 28 points at halftime in each of its last two games; they gained 499-464 TY the last two weeks, averaging 8.7 yards/pass attempt in both games, but Bucs have also allowed 31+ points in three games this year. TB was outscored 75-50 in 2nd half of games so far, but Arians is helping Winston thrive at QB. Saints are 2-0 in Bridgewater’s starts, they held Dallas to 45 YR LW after Cowboys had run for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3. Since 2014, NO is 12-21-1 ATS as a home favorite. Teams split last eight series games, splitting last four games in each stadium.

Falcons (1-3) @ Texans (2-2)— Atlanta lost its first two road tilts by 16-3 points; they’re 1-8 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 0-12 ATS in last dozen games vs AFC opponents. Falcons are averaging only 70.3 rushing yards/game; they were outscored 44-10 in first half of last two games. Houston split its first four games, all decided by 7 or fewer points; road team covered all four of their games- they scored only two TD’s on 20 drives in their home games. Texans are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as home favorites. Home side won last four Falcon-Texan games, with Atlanta losing 17-13/17-10 in last two visits here.

Bills (3-1) @ Titans (2-2)— Tennessee gets star LT Lewan back from suspension here, which is a big help for their OL; Titans converted 14-30 3rd down plays in last two games, after being 3-20 on 3rd down in Weeks 1-2. Under Vrabel, Tennessee is 1-3 as a home favorite. Buffalo lost tough 16-10 home game to New England LW; QB Allen is banged up, Barkley (2-5 as NFL starter) gets nod if Allen can’t go. Under McDermott, Buffalo is 8-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, 6-4-1 in games wth spread of 3 or fewer points. Last three series games were decided by one point each, with Buffalo winning last two; Bills lost four of last five visits to Nashville.

Broncos (0-4) @ Chargers (2-2)— Denver lost its first four games, losing road games by 8-11 points; they lost their two home games on last-second FG’s. Broncos blew 17-6 halftime lead LW; they’re 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog. Banged-up Chargers led all four games at halftime; they’re 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year. Bolts are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 AFC West home games. Melvin Gordon figures to get some action at RB for Chargers, after he ended his holdout. Teams split last six series games; Denver scored 13-0-9 points in last three series losses. Teams split last four series games in SD/Carson.

Packers (2-2) @ Cowboys (3-1)— Green Bay won seven of last eight series games (2-0 in playoff games), winning last three visits here, 37-36/34-31/35-31. Packers split their first four games, winning only road game 10-3 (+3) in Chicago; they’ve scored 65 first half points, only 20 second half points this year. GB is 8-14-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road underdog, 3-6-1 in last ten games on artificial turf. Cowboys scored 35-31 points in winning their two home games; they ran ball for 179 yards/game in Weeks 1-3, were held to 45 in Superdome LW. Dallas is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.

Colts (2-2) @ Chiefs (4-0)— Chiefs whacked Colts 31-13 in playoffs LY; Indy’s first TD scored on a blocked punt. KC won last two series games 30-14/31-13 after losing six of the previous seven meetings- Colts won seven of last nine visits to Arrowhead. Indy split its first four games, with all four games decided by 7 or fewer points; under Reich, Indy is 5-2 ATS as a road dog- three of their four games went over. Chiefs scored 15 TD’s on 38 drives in their 4-0 start; in their last two games, only 18 of their 131 plays came on third down. Mahomes has averaged 7.5+ yards/pass attempt in all four games, but he was 0-11 LW on passes that went 30+ yards downfield.

Browns (2-2) @ 49ers (3-0)— Cleveland has had wildly divergent results, splitting its first four games; only one of their four games was decided by less than 15 points. Browns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games as a road underdog; they were outscored 48-14 in 2nd half of their two losses. 49ers scored 32 ppg in their 3-0 start; they ran ball for 427 yards in last two games. Under Shanahan, SF is 2-4 ATS when laying points at home. Niners lost last six post-bye games (0-6 ATS), with last four losses by 11+ points. Browns won three of last four games with the 49ers, with average total of 29; teams split pair of meetings here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-05-2019, 10:18 PM

301LA RAMS -302 SEATTLE
LA RAMS are 7-24 ATS (-19.4 Units) after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse since 1992.

451BALTIMORE -452 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 64-36 ATS (24.4 Units) in October games since 1992.

453CHICAGO -454 OAKLAND
OAKLAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread in the last 3 seasons.

455ARIZONA -456 CINCINNATI
ARIZONA is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last 3 seasons.

457JACKSONVILLE -458 CAROLINA
JACKSONVILLE is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game in the last 3 seasons.

459MINNESOTA -460 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in the 1rst half of the season in the last 3 seasons.

461NEW ENGLAND -462 WASHINGTON
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

463NY JETS -464 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 55-30 ATS (22 Units) after 2 straight overs since 1992.

465TAMPA BAY -466 NEW ORLEANS
TAMPA BAY is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after 2 straight overs in the last 3 seasons.

467ATLANTA -468 HOUSTON
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game in the last 2 seasons.

469BUFFALO -470 TENNESSEE
BUFFALO is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in road games after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.

471DENVER -472 LA CHARGERS
DENVER is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) against teams who force 1 or less turnovers/game on the season in the last 3 seasons.

473GREEN BAY -474 DALLAS
DALLAS are 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. since 1992.

475INDIANAPOLIS -476 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

477CLEVELAND -478 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 32-11 ATS (19.9 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2019, 11:14 AM

THE GOLD SHEET

Event: (467) Atlanta Falcons at (468) Houston Texans
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 6, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: Houston Texans -5.0 (-115)

Since slow-starting Atlanta (outscored 71-20 in 1st H) clearly looks like the worst team in the NFC South and whose HC Dan Quinn could be living on borrowed time, prefer to lay fair price with Houston, which has played all quality defenses in the first month of the season. Since the hurting Atlanta D doesn’t fall into that category, look for Texans’ strong-armed QB Deshaun Watson to light scoreboard vs. the Falcon stop unit, which lacks a pass rush and misses key disruptor S Keanu Neal for the season once again. Similar to what Tennessee D did a week ago, look for the Texans to possibly “double” Julio Jones, since mistake-prone QB Matt Ryan (NFL-worst 6 ints.) failed to threw a TD pass for the fist time in 18 games last week vs. Titans. Moreover, Atlanta now 4-14 vs. spread as a visitor since 2017, while Houston 9- 4-1 vs. line in reg.-season since late 2018. Falcons, who blew the biggest lead (led 28-3 in 3rd Q) ever in Super Bowl history in 34-28 OT loss to New England on this field in SB LI in 2016 campaign, won’t exorcise any demons in their return.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2019, 11:14 AM

TEDDY COVERS

Event: (463) New York Jets at (464) Philadelphia Eagles
Sport/League: NFL
Date/Time: October 6, 2019 1PM EDT
Play: New York Jets 14.0 (-107)

3% Take the New York Jets (#463)

This is not a week where we can expect the Eagles ‘A’ game. Philly is in a Green Bay – Minnesota sandwich – coming off a much bigger game than this one, with another big game on deck. They’re dealing with cluster injuries in their secondary – without Avonte Maddox, Ronald Darby and potentially Sidney Jones all well. Deep threat DeSean Jackson is out too, and this is not a healthy offensive line either. Philly hasn’t won a game by more than a TD this year, and they haven’t covered a double digit spread since November, 2017.

Sure, the Jets only have one offensive touchdown on 39 possessions this season. That said, they’ve faced three truly top notch defenses in Buffalo, New England and Cleveland. Backup QB Luke Falk is actually taking a step down in defensive class here, and he’ll benefit with the extra week of prep during the bye. It’s surely worth noting that Adam Gase’s Dolphins team last year came out of the bye and nearly won SU at Indy as underdogs; 3-0 ATS off a bye with Miami. Look for this game to be significantly closer than expected. Take the Jets.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2019, 11:17 AM

BIG AL

Our complimentary selection for Sunday, October 6 is:

Washington Redskins +16 over New England Patriots

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-06-2019, 11:17 AM

CAPPERS ACCESS

(NFL)Bears
(NFL)Bills
(NFL) Cowboys
(NFL) Chiefs
(MLB) Cardinals

Sunday 10-6-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Sunday 10-6-19 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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