Tweet
Paul Leiner
2500* BC -20.5
2500* BC -20.5
-
DR. CHUCK
Game: (103) NORTH CAROLINA at (104) WAKE FOREST
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 6:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 64.0 (-108)
View Analysis
Mack Brown showed up at Chapel Hill and immediately injected the program with the energy and winning it hadn't had in many years. Not only have they won both of the first 2 games of the season...they did it outright as dogs and against South Carolina and the Miami Hurricanes! Both games came with extreme questions of whether the Heels could even cover either game, with a program on rebuild and extremely young and green QB leading the charge. Those questions were answered quicky and now they find themselves playing what SHOULD be an even easier matchup than the 2 games they previously won outright. Despite this, they are dogs yet again and will make the short trip to play AT Wake Forest and face the high powered offense of Dave Clawson led by dual threat stud Jamie Newman.
Wake Forest is 5-2 to the Over at home with a total of 60 or more under Clawson's reign...including 3 for the last 3 when also being favored at home. UNC has looked better than advertised, but it is unlikely their route to winning is attempting to shut down Newman, but rather catch some breaks and keep up on their own offensive possessions! This is not an ideal number, as it was 62.5 at open, but we do have the benefit of some books earlier in the week popping this up north of 67 in spots.
I think this game starts fast and hard and keeps it up with quicker possessions for both teams and bendy type defenses that are not where they make their hay! If I had to pick a winner of this game I would certainly lean toward Wake Forest at all, and likely look toward the ML despite the -150ish price...as there are solid trends backing UNC in this spot as well...but I also think each should easily go over half the points needed to the total to fly Over. I like this game at 42-38 in a fun game tonight with a coin flip that Wake Forest ends UNC's impressive streak....but we don't have to sweat that action.
Game: (115) MARYLAND at (116) Temple
Date/Time: Sep 14 2019 12:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Over 31.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Maryland is setting records with the scoring through 2 weeks of football and Temple had the week off to attempt to scheme defensively...or take what they're given when they have the ball! The Terps ain't showing any signs of slowing down...as they are able to continue to prep for once B1G play starts and the big boys are attacking week after week!
Trends point to an Under here on both sides and Temple has a strong defense with a ton of returning starters...but I think the feel out part of this game features more points with both these offensive squads the real stars....and at a nice flat 31 it is wild VALUE!Comment
-
Dr. Chuck
Game: (969) Minnesota Twins at (970) Cleveland Indians
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 9.5 (-100)
View Analysis
Odorizzi v. Civale
-Wind is blowing out solidly in the double figures tonight at Progressive
-Odorizzi is a MONSTER fly ball pitcher...as we always like to fade in spots...this time advantageously to the Over with 9 solid hitters on the Cleveland lineup and a recent run of last 6 starts allowing 14 runs and with a near 50% fly ball rate but a ridiculous sub-10% FB/HR rate and a total that isn't all that terrible...just at a 10 run game with the road team favored leaning toward all 18 at bats and no pitchers hitting...seems a little funky and we fire on the laziness of the line!
-Civale had his last start against these Twins and while he "shut" them down...his excellent ERA came along with a 5.81 xFIP (actually identical in the CHW start just prior) with a WHOPPING 93% of contact either medium or hard hit balls. So, the lineup just faced the same starter, had numbers that belied the objective stats
Game: (955) Los Angeles Dodgers at (956) New York Mets
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 4.0 (-105)
View Analysis
Kershaw v. Syndergaard
Couple of stud pitchers heading to the mound in a very important cross country game tonight....Kershaw easy to back...Syndergaard easy to back...but even easier to back is ole Rob Drake behind the plate. This will be the 13th time he leads a staff for a National League game and not a single time has the total gone Over this entire season! Hit those corners with your nasty stuff guys...it will be a K and both starters have solid sample size PAs against the foe, with Kershaw in particular allowing a .219 BA to this Mets lineup in over 150 PAs against.
I had thought about hitting the full game Under and think there is still some value there, but I expect both pitchers to come out firing...hard to imagine the Dodger batting order is ready to pull RIGHT out of their funk facing Thor, and if you cannot get the full 8 runs on the full game I would not recommend pushing it too far honestly...the bullpens aren't always terrible, but they sure ain't reliable enough to back a 7.5 when first 5 innings should encompass our starters completely with no pen worries!Comment
-
Comment
-
Steve Budin?Comment
-
Executive 200% Washington St -9Comment
-
Exodus to Black
CFB 7-2
Wash St-8.5
Wash St under 74.5
Kansas+21 -125
MLB 121-76 +39.09 units
Rockies+110Comment
-
Seabass : 400 wake forest , 400 Houston game over ncaa , 400 Kansas game under , no limit rays game under , 600 rays , 400 reds , 400 Indians , 300 bravesComment
-
Bezobets
3* Kansas +20.5 -110
2* Wake Forest ML -135Comment
-
Worlds Worst Picker
His picks
Wake
Kansas
Take
Unc
BcComment
-
Big al mlb
GOW
Minnesota -115Comment
-
Vsi
7 unit St louis -125Comment
-
DR. CHUCK
Game: (971) Oakland Athletics at (972) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 8:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-120)
View Analysis
Bassitt v. Burke
Not a ton more difficult than one of the best hitting teams against LHP getting a game against a young lefty for a struggling team...all 9 at bats...and the last time they got this shot they pounded Miley into submission before he got barely a damned OUT!
BARGAIN BASEMENT MLB DURING FOOTBALL TYPE LINE!
Game: (963) Miami Marlins at (964) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Sep 13 2019 10:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 2%
Play: 1H Miami Marlins +143
View AnalysisComment
Comment