Service Plays Saturday 8/10/19

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2019, 12:27 PM

NICK BORRMAN SOCCER PLAYS

Game: Manchester City at West Ham
Date/Time: Aug 10 2019 7:30 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Manchester City -1.75 (-115)

View Analysis

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England Premier League
(200005) Manchester City at (200006) West Ham

The Premier League returns to action and defending champions Manchester City look to pick-up right where they left off last year. City won the league by one point over Liverpool last season and strengthened their squad this summer, signing Rodri from Atletico Madrid in La Liga for close to $80M. He is a strong defensive midfielder and should make a decent impact for them right out of the gate. Otherwise we are looking at the same team as last year.

Head to Head, City has won nine straight over the Hammers conceding just four total goals, never more than one in any game, and have covered this number in seven of those nine games. The Hammers finished #10 in the table last year and I don’t see much change for them in the standings this year. They made two big offensive signings this summer to try and bolster their attack bringing in forward Sebastien Haller from Frankfurt for about $45M and Pablo Fornals from Villarreal for about $32M. But, they struggle way too much on the backline and because of that are going to fall in the same #8-12 finish again this season. Of course City is not the team you want to face as you try and start the season on a good note from a defensive standpoint. City looked strong in their win over Liverpool in the Community Shield this past weekend which was great for them to face some elite competition to start the year. The EPL is going to be decided between City and Liverpool again this year and I expect them to come out strong here in their first game as they make an early statement for a repeat.

I do also like the Under in this one as City is so strong defensively and were just 5-14 O-U on the road against this number last year, but I prefer City -1.75 as the play. City has the talent to go off and score 4 goals themselves and a 3-0 score line is very likely so that would only be a half-win on the total. If the Hammers do net one in that situation, the Under is dead, but City will still half-cover this number.
TAKE MANCHESTER CITY -1.75

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2019, 12:27 PM

+EV: UFC 4u: Chris Gutierrez +125 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)

+EV: UFC 6u: Gilbert Burns +130 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-09-2019, 09:49 PM

Originally posted by Can'tPickAWinner

+EV: UFC 4u: Chris Gutierrez +125 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)

+EV: UFC 6u: Gilbert Burns +130 (UFC on ESPN+ 14) (Saturday, August 10th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 974 Minnesota Twins -142 (A Plutko | J Odorizzi) (Saturday, August 10th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 966 Toronto Blue Jays +170 (M Tanaka | J Waguespack) (Saturday, August 10th)

+EV: MLB 4u: 967 Los Angeles Angels +145 (A Heaney | R Porcello) (Saturday, August 10th)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 06:43 AM

Matt Blunt (VegasInsider - XNFL) - Best Bet: Rams/Raiders Over 34.5 points

NFL Odds: Oakland (-4.5); Total set at 34.5

This line has already seen significant action going against the Rams throughout the week, as it's basically been nothing but Oakland money since the Raiders opened at -3. Obviously a lot of that has to do with word getting out that the Rams are taking a highly conservative approach in the preseason with their projected starters and how can you blame them. This team was a few plays away from winning a Super Bowl last year, and they want to start the year as healthy as possible to try and reach that goal this season.

Considering the Raiders get plenty of scorn and criticism for how they've chosen to do things in recent years, this may be one of the few times all year we get to say that early money has come in on Oakland. Obviously there might be a few games – especially early – where the perception of this team doesn't quite match up with the reality of what they've got on the field, but with WR Antonio Brown's recent frostbite incident in a cryo chamber, and what's already gone on during their time on 'Hard Knocks' this year, the Raiders are not going out of the way to avoid criticism in the least. All that matters to bettors though is how they perform on the field this week, and based on all the Raiders love early this week, many would prefer them to come out on top.

Even with this Rams organization being one that's not been particularly good during the first game of the preseason, it is hard to come in on the Raiders at such a bad number now. Getting the best of the number and being fully aware of key numbers in football still applies to preseason betting, and if you were considering Oakland and hadn't fired, it's probably best to let that ship continue to sail. However, with the Rams being the reigning Super Bowl losers – for lack of a better term – there are some good scenarios regarding the total for this game which I'll get to in a second. For those that may still be interested in backing Oakland, reigning Super Bowl losers like the Rams are 2-5 ATS the following year in their first preseason game.

But while that ATS run is another great piece of evidence for those already holding an Oakland ticket this week, it's the fact that the first preseason game for reigning Super Bowl losers is 4-1 O/U the past five years (4-0 O/U the last four) is what I want to focus on.

The lone 'under' that cashed in that stretch was by a mere half-point on 'under' 37.5 (37 is a key number in totals), but even with this week's action shifting heavily to the low side of the total – it opened at 37 – I can only look to the high side of things at the current number.

A 4-1 O/U run is always nice, but the fact that the total points scored in those games has averaged 41.2 points per game, and all but that 37-point outing five years ago have had at least 41 points scored, suggests to me that we should see some points scored in this game. We could land basically a full TD below that average of 41.2 and still cash the 'over' at 34.5, and when you start to look at things you expect to see on the field, the 'over' makes a lot of sense as well.

From the Raiders side of things, they've got to look for significant improvement offensively this year, and with Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman battling for the backup role behind Carr, some healthy competition should exist between those two guys all preseason long. Heck, if Peterman ends up throwing plenty of INT's like he's known for, that's not a bad thing either for an 'over' play.

On the other side of the field, we've got Blake Bortles starting the year as the backup to Goff, and on a personal level, Bortles has to use these next few weeks and any opportunities he gets during the season to prove to people across the league that he still belongs. He's only got things to gain from being aggressive in his time out on the field, and with many reports coming out of Rams camp suggesting that he's been a great addition to their depth chart, he's got to be comfortable and confident enough in his skills to find some success.

Put it all together with the history of reigning 'runners-up' in this league during this week, and I believe you've got to look at going above this total that's probably adjusted too much at this point.

Best Bet: Over 34.5 points

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 06:43 AM

Matt Blunt (VegasInsider - CFL) - Best Bet: B.C.Lions +10.5

CFL Odds: Hamilton (-10.5); Total set at 51

Early indications from the betting market suggest that there is no way they believe Hamilton is a trustworthy bunch laying big numbers with Dane Evans under center, as the opening line of -13.5 has been hit hard. That move is quite the jump this early in the week, and as much as I wanted to have some sort of interesting lead in to this preview, I can't. Without question that opener was absurd and it's good to see that's been the case from the early market sentiment.

Hamilton fans will always be quick to point out that Evans has only faced two quality defenses so far this year, and his trip to Saskatchewan was without CFL leading receiver Brandon Banks (among others), but what does that really matter when “dink-and-dunk Dane” doesn't throw the ball down the field.

Of all the CFL QB's with at least 60 pass attempts this year, Evans yards per attempt is the lowest at 6.6 yards. Through a full game-and-a-half of seeing every one of his snaps as the starter, I'm not sure I need both hands to count how many times he's thrown the ball 20+ yards, as all this talk about him sticking around in Hamilton to be the backup (and why they traded Manziel last year because they were happy with what they had in Evans) is simply just talk. It looks like he's got command of barely half the offense and/or the coaching staff has decided to put him out there in a game manager role and hope that their defense continues to play lights out. Hamilton could have the best receiving corps from top to bottom right now and I don't think Evans would be able to get the ball to them.

Any point spread in double digits is just too absurd here, even if it is the lowly BC Lions on the other side of the field. That's another point Hamilton backers will surely bring up as BC's looked awful themselves this year, but they are the ones who are coming off the bye week, have a highly talented QB in Mike Reilly under center and are more then capable of going into Hamilton and pulling off this upset.

West Division teams are a perfect 4-0 SU off the bye this year and as a 10-point underdog in this game, you don't even need to consider their ATS records (3-1 ATS) in this game. The week off had to help BC figure out themselves in terms of what should work and what won't, where their strengths and weaknesses lie and how to emphasize the former and hide the latter. Yes, Hamilton's defense is among the better units in the league, but when they don't have a QB that can sustain drives and put up points, that locker room becomes divided really quickly; just ask Jacksonville Jaguars fans about their recent years of watching a great defense get more and more frustrated with Blake Bortles at the helm.

Even with all of BC's issues on paper, their really isn't a much better spot then this all the way through for them. Reilly has been able to turn around teams from poor starts/stretches before during his time in this league, and with little to fear in terms of losing a potential shoot out against Evans, Reilly can go out and wing it and be the guy that is the spark for a potential season turnaround.

“Dink-and-dunk Dane” will prove to everyone this week that it's very fitting that his home games are played in a stadium that's affectionately known as “The Donut Box.” I'm not even concerned with not getting the best of the number here because I don't believe it will matter, any spread above 10 is at least a FG too much, and splashing a bit of cash on the Lions ML is always an option here as well.

Best Bet: B.C.Lions +10.5

**Player1** · 08-10-2019, 08:11 AM

Big Al McMordie has a 5* in the MLB today.
if anyone has it, could you please post it?
He says it’s his strongest play of the season so far.

Thank you very much for your help!

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 08:38 AM

Stephen Oh

OAKLAND -169

OAKLAND @ CHI. WHITE SOX | 8/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
2:36 AM
The A's hammered Chicago, 7-0, on Friday, continuing their hot streak. Since July 27, they have an OPS of .807, which ranks 11th in the majors, and are averaging 5.2 runs per game. They're 8-3 in those games. Meanwhile, the White Sox are 1-9 in their last 10 home games. My model says Oakland wins this game more than 70 percent of the time, which makes this line great value. Take the A's.

139-99 IN LAST 238 MLB ML PICKS | +3586
24-13 IN LAST 37 OAK ML PICKS | +1110

23-15 IN LAST 38 CHW ML PICKS | +740

WASHINGTON -107

WASHINGTON @ N.Y. METS | 8/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
2:21 AM
I realize the Mets have the magic working right now, but my model says the Nationals are winning 60 percent of simulations, so you're getting great value with Washington at this price. Nats lefty Patrick Corbin has started four times against New York this season, and three of those were quality starts. I think Washington rebounds from Friday night's stunner. Take the Nats.

139-99 IN LAST 238 MLB ML PICKS | +3586
37-24 IN LAST 61 NYM ML PICKS | +1749

17-13 IN LAST 30 WAS ML PICKS | +381

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 09:14 AM

BEN BURNS

3* LA/Oakland UNDER 37

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 09:15 AM

SPARTAN

3* Oakland -1.5(-110)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 09:15 AM

FEZZIK

2* Cincinnati -(-100)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 09:15 AM

STEPHEN NOVER

3* Chicago whitesox +158

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 09:17 AM

Paul Leiner

Three MLB Picks 8/10

100* Cardinals -145
100* Giants -105
100* Redsox -135

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 09:56 AM

BASEWINNER MLB BETTING PROJECTIONS (AUGUST 10)

The model has 6 sides and 1 total. There is 0 game with a side and total in the same game.
954 .33* MIA +203
956 .5* CIN -105
957 .5* WAS +102
959 .5* PIT +135
962 1* SDP -175
966 .5* NYY/TOR u11 -115
973 .5* CLE +132

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 08-10-2019, 10:05 AM

S.I.G

English Premier League ⚽️
Bournemouth (+103)

Service Plays Saturday 8/10/19

Service Plays Saturday 8/10/19

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