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DR. CHUCKBASEBALL PLAYS
- 926 Washington Nationals Team Total Over
Game: 926 Washington Nationals Team Total
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 3:00 AM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Over 5.5 Runs
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Sparkman v. Scherzer
Max is back for his regular start after having a baby and the team is off a home loss in extra innings TO THE ROYALS! We also have our first -400 or bigger favorite of the season...and it ain't only due to Max on the mound.
Glenn Sparkman has 8 starts this season and is going for his 3rd consecutive road start today...following 2 starts of 8 combined innings giving up the ghost of 13 runs and 6 HRs in the last 2 outings! The Nats have done a much better job on offense of late and will certainly be looking to chase Sparkman early on what will be a disgustingly hot humid day in DC. Outside of those 2 starts it hasn't been good for Sparkman so I am not worried about any turn around on the road in a regularly scheduled start...Soto and Rondon and Robles will wreak havoc on the poor Royals starter and I would think they may have the 6 required runs before he exits!
a - Game: (901) Milwaukee Brewers at (902) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Milwaukee Brewers -128
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Houser v. Agrazal
Playing Vegas game here... - Game: (903) Miami Marlins at (904) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Atlanta Braves -193
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Smith v. Fried
Big huge line...but an even bigger trend 25-3 SU last 28 occurrences and Caleb Smith back off the IL. Where I like the Braves even more...both teams' bats were silenced...but Yamamoto makes sense...Teheran is much less metrically sound and the shutout of Miami by him is much more on the hitters than vice versa. Caleb Smith is solid but is already not likely to go crazy deep and the trend plus being out and back against a team hitting this hot recently overall spells doom! - Game: (907) St. Louis Cardinals at (908) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: San Francisco Giants -121
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Mikolas v. Bumgarner
Pomeranz had been pitching well of late...but the Cards jumped all over him early and often with the wind blowing out at Oracle and despite Hudson finding some trouble as well...ended up not being all that close.
The cap today is basically the same...and while Vegas hung the Cards as a favorite only to be immediately bought to dog status...today with MadBum on the mound it's a different story. He is the favorite for both first 5 and full game...and correctly so. As we have mentioned in the recent past...only 1 team boasts 4 starters in the "top" 20 for HR/FB rate and it is the Cards with Waino, Hudson, Mikolas, and Flaherty ALL north of 20% rate...however many fly balls one is allowing, 1 of 4 or 1 of 5 of them leaving the park is grim and not helpful to the team attempting to back them for a win. Especially when they get a still very much auditioning Madison Bumgarner.
Mikolas has put together some solid outings...but overall his metrics are << Hudson and now the Giants throw an even better lefty at the struggling Cards offense...and while this feels like I am looking for vindication for last night...I agree it's not easy to get right back on the horse after being sent flying so far...if you had told me which game I'd like most IF they were to lose 9-4 it would be backing the Giants tonight!
The value at such an almost pickem range is immense! - Game: (923) Oakland Athletics at (924) Seattle Mariners
Date/Time: Jul 6 2019 10:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Oakland Athletics -131
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Bassitt v. Gonzalez
As stated in the title this matchup features a revenge spot for Chris Bassitt, who took on Marco head to head a few weeks back at home...and while he did not necessarily pitch well enough to win, the 9-2 final is deceiving as the.bullpen allowed 5 runs in the last couple innings.
I also said I have some trends backing this small line considering. Most notably taking into account the revenge nature it is an 11 of last 14 winner! (Including no losses sinc e 2017!) The profit on all the trends occasionally reaches the 30+% ROI mark and the value there is intense! In fact the trend expanded out is 24-7 and 20-11 RL for 30% and 37% ROI!
Gonzalez will face a lineup full of right handed hitters, limiting his advantage over lefties...with one exception, Matt Olson, who is a downright CRUSHER of LHP. Only Josh Reddick eclipses him in most any category. He Ks less than 10% of the time, and then it gets nuts:
.500 ISO
1.228 OPS
9 wRC
4.7 wRAA
.489 wOBA
213 wRC+
FLAT OUT absurdities! I am not making this play based upon one hitter as that would be equally absurd. But it all adds up together for an amazing spot for the A's....the revenge, 2 runs or less last night, against LHP, divisional foe, with Matt Olson being the sold "weak" spot in the lineup being the cherry on top of a crazy valuable less than -150 line!
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