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NFL
Week 3
Sunday
Colts (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)— Philly gets Wentz back at QB here, for first time since game in LA last December- keep in mind he’s had zero game reps since then, so caution advised. Colts seem rejuvenated with Luck back at QB; they held Redskins without TD in 21-9 road win LW, have converted 20 of 33 third down plays. Since 2013, Indy is 14-12-1 as road underdogs- they’re 16-9 vs spread in last 25 games vs NFC squads. Under Pederson, Philly is 6-2-1 as home favorites, 6-2-1 vs spread vs the AFC. Iggles’ defense got lit up for 393 PY (11.2 yards/pass attempt) in Tampa LW, giving up two 75-yard TD passes. Eagles won last two series games, 26-24/30-27; Colts are 5-5 in visits to Philly.
Bengals (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1)— Cincy scored 30+ points in first two games for first time ever, winning both games 34-23; Bengals have five takeaways (+3) in two games, scored five TD’s and a FG on six red zone drives. Since 2011, Bengals are 21-12-4 as road underdogs, 16-9-3 vs NFC teams- they’re 9-4-2 vs spread in last 15 games on grass. Under Rivera, Carolina is 21-16-2 as home favorites, 15-11-2 vs AFC teams. Panthers gave up seven plays of 20+ yards in loss at Atlanta LW; over last 10 years, Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in game before their bye. Under is 10-7 in Panthers’ last 17 home games. Teams are 2-2-1 in this series; last meeting was 37-all tie in 2014. Bengals had three extra days to prep, having played last Thursday.
Titans (1-1) @ Jaguars (2-0)— Since 2014, Tennessee is 9-23-1 vs spread on road, 7-17 as road underdogs, 0-8 as an AFC South road dog. Titans won four of last five series games; they swept Jags 37-16/15-10 LY, despite Jax making run to AFC title game. Tennessee lost five of last seven visits here. Jaguars beat New England LW, avenging loss in AFC title game; do they let down here? Jags are 4-2 in last six games as home favorites; since ’09, Jaguars are 8-2 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games- they lost LT Robinson (ACL) for the year. Titans beat Houston LW with backup QB Gabbert playing; they had 66-yard TD pass on a fake punt, 2nd week in row they scored on special teams.
Saints (1-1) @ Falcons (1-1)— New Orleans lost six of its last seven road openers; over is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers. Last four years, Saints are 12-7-1 vs spread as road underdogs; 6-2 in NFC South games. Falcons are 6-3 vs spread in last nine home games; they ran ball for 170 yards in win over Carolina LW. Over is 11-6 in Atlanta’s last 17 home games. So far this season, home favorites are 3-5 vs spread, in divisional games. Atlanta is 5-3 in last eight games in this rivalry; Saints lost 38-32/20-17 in last two visits here. Last three years, under is 12-10-1 in NO road games. Reality is this; had Cleveland chosen the right kicker in camp, Saints would be 0-2 right now.
Broncos (2-0) @ Ravens (1-1)— Denver won its first two games (both at home) by total of four points; they won their road opener four of last five years, but since 2012, they’re 4-11 vs spread as road underdogs. Broncos outrushed first two foes 314-156; they rallied back from down 19-9 in 3rd quarter to beat Oakland LW. Ravens had three days extra prep time since Cincinnati loss LW; they’ve scored nine TD’s on 26 drives this year, scoring 62 points on nine red zone drives. Baltimore is 8-6 vs spread in last 14 games as home favorites; Broncos lost five of last six visits here, with one win six years ago. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.
Giants (0-2) @ Texans (0-2)— Under O’Brien, Houston is 14-7-1 as home favorites, but after an 0-2 start, Texan fans are calling for O’Brien’s head- big game here. Texans are just 7-22 on 3rd down thru two games- they gave up a 66-yard TD on a fake punt LW. Giants are 9-12-2 in last 23 games as road underdogs; Big Blue scored only two TD’s on 22 drives this year— they’ve been outsacked 8-1, averaging only 5.4/4.4 yards/pass attempt. Giants won last three series games, by 4-24-13 points; they split two visits here. Houston is 6-2 in its last eight home openers, 5-5 vs spread when favored in home openers- under is 9-4 in their last 13 HO’s. Under is 14-9 in Houston’s last 23 home games.
Raiders (0-2) @ Dolphins (2-0)— Oakland’s starters are oldest in NFL; they’ve been outscored 43-7 in second half of first two games, after leading both games at halftime. Raiders gave up 308 rushing yards in two games; since 2015, they’re 10-7-1 as road underdogs. Dolphins won their first two games, with three takeaways in each game (+2); over last decade, Miami is just 12-29-2 vs spread as home favorites. Over is 11-4 in Dolphins’ last 15 home games; under is 8-2 in Oakland’s last ten road tilts. Miami won 11 of last 14 series games, with last four wins all by 16+ points; Raiders won 27-24 here LY, just their 2nd win in last nine visits to South Beach.
Packers (1-0-1) @ Redskins (1-1)— Green Bay tied Vikings last week, but scored only one offensive TD, tried six FG’s; thru two games, Pack has scored only 26 points on seven red zone drives. Washington didn’t score TD in 21-9 home loss to Colts LW; they kicked FG’s on both their red zone drives. Under Gruden, Redskins are 7-8 as home underdogs- under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Packers won six of last eight series games; average total in last three meetings was 59. Pack split their last four meetings here. Green Bay lost four of its last six road openers; over is 10-2 in their last dozen. Since 2014, Packers are 10-8 as road favorites; over is 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Bills (0-2) @ Vikings (1-0-1)— Buffalo trailed first two games 26-0/28-6 at halftime; they’ve got rookie QB making his first road start here. Bills are 7-29 on third down- they’ve gone 3/out 15 times on 24 drives. Since 2014, Bills are 13-10 as road underdogs. Minnesota has new kicker (Bailey) after LW’s tie in Green Bay; under Zimmer, Vikings are 19-5 as home favorites, 2-0 when laying double digits. Buffalo won three of last four series games, with all three wins by 5 or fewer points, or in OT; they lost four of five visits here, with one win a 45-39 OT win in 2002. Last five years, Week 3 underdogs of 6+ points who lost their first two games are 7-6 vs spread, 2-2 if getting double digits.
49ers (1-1) @ Chiefs (2-0)— Mahomes has thrown 10 TD’s in first two games; this is his 4th NFL start, but his first home start. Chiefs have 10 TD’s, only one FGA in two games, averaging 9.1, 11.1 yards/pass attempt- four of their 10 TD’s came on plays of 25+ yards. KC is 2-9-1 vs spread in its last 12 home openers; under Reid, they’re 16-14 as home favorites. 49ers are 8-7 in last 15 games as road underdogs; they’re 8-24 on 3rd down so far this season. 49ers are 7-5 in series, with home side winning last nine series games; 49ers are 0-4 here, losing by 7-35-31-21 points. Under is 6-3 in 49ers’ last nine road games; last five years, under is 26-14 in Arrowhead games.
Chargers (1-1) @ Rams (2-0)— Over last decade, Chargers are 31-18-3 vs spread as underdogs on road; they scored seven TD’s on 20 drives in splitting first two games, but gave up three TD plays of 35+ yards in Week 1 loss to Chiefs. Rams allowed TD on Oakland’s first drive in Week 1; since then, they’ve allowed only two FGA’s on 18 drives. All six of Rams’ TD drives on offense have been less than 60 yards- they outscored first two opponents 38-0 in second half. These teams will be sharing a new domed stadium in two years; home side won last seven series games- three of last four meetings were decided by 4 or fewer points. Under McVay, Rams are 4-3 as home favorites; under is 24-17 in Chargers’ last 41 road games.
Bears (1-1) @ Cardinals (0-2)— Long travel, short week for Bear squad that outscored first two opponents 27-3 in first half; they beat Seattle at home Monday night, have 10 sacks in two games, scored defensive TD in both games, but young QB Trubisky scares the hell out of me- this is a huge trap game for Bears, since Arizona was so dismal in its 0-2 start. Cardinals were outscored 58-6 in their first two games, with nine 3/outs on 18 drives; if they keep starting Bradford, Arizona is unbettable, since Bradford looks scared of getting hit. Chicago won six of last nine series games; they won four of five visits to the desert. Bears are road favorite for only 2nd time in last five years; last time they were favored by this much on road was 2012.
Cowboys (1-1) @ Seahawks (0-2)— Seattle won its last nine home openers, and 14 of last 15; last two were 12-10/12-9. Under is 14-2-1 in their last 17 home openers. Short week for Seahawks after 24-17 loss in Chicago Monday; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as home favorites, 7-25 on 3rd down, have run for only 138 yards- their OL is awful. Dallas has only two plays of 20+ yards in its first two games; they’re 5-21 on 3rd down; Prescott misses departed playmakers, Witten, Bryant. Under Garrett, Cowboys are 22-14 as road underdogs. Home side lost last three series games, with Seattle winning last two, 13-12/21-12; Cowboys split eight visits here, with last one in ’14. Under is 17-7 in last 24 Dallas road games.
Patriots (1-1) @ Lions (0-2)— Matt Patricia was a Patriot assistant for 17 years; now he is 0-2 as Lions’ head coach, and faces his mentor here. Detroit allowed 78 points in losing its first two games, giving up seven TD’s, five FGA’s on 22 drives- they’re -4 in turnovers. Since 2011, Detroit is 3-11-1 as a home underdog. Over last decade, New England is 24-10 vs spread coming off a loss; they’re 11-5 in last 16 games as road favorites, 13-5 vs NFC teams. Will Josh Gordon play here? Patriots averaged only 6.5/5.9 yards/pass attempt in first two games- they’re 8-26 on third down- my guess is he plays. Last five years, Week 3 underdogs of 6+ points who lost their first two games are 7-6 vs spread.
Week 3
Sunday
Colts (1-1) @ Eagles (1-1)— Philly gets Wentz back at QB here, for first time since game in LA last December- keep in mind he’s had zero game reps since then, so caution advised. Colts seem rejuvenated with Luck back at QB; they held Redskins without TD in 21-9 road win LW, have converted 20 of 33 third down plays. Since 2013, Indy is 14-12-1 as road underdogs- they’re 16-9 vs spread in last 25 games vs NFC squads. Under Pederson, Philly is 6-2-1 as home favorites, 6-2-1 vs spread vs the AFC. Iggles’ defense got lit up for 393 PY (11.2 yards/pass attempt) in Tampa LW, giving up two 75-yard TD passes. Eagles won last two series games, 26-24/30-27; Colts are 5-5 in visits to Philly.
Bengals (2-0) @ Panthers (1-1)— Cincy scored 30+ points in first two games for first time ever, winning both games 34-23; Bengals have five takeaways (+3) in two games, scored five TD’s and a FG on six red zone drives. Since 2011, Bengals are 21-12-4 as road underdogs, 16-9-3 vs NFC teams- they’re 9-4-2 vs spread in last 15 games on grass. Under Rivera, Carolina is 21-16-2 as home favorites, 15-11-2 vs AFC teams. Panthers gave up seven plays of 20+ yards in loss at Atlanta LW; over last 10 years, Carolina is 3-7 vs spread in game before their bye. Under is 10-7 in Panthers’ last 17 home games. Teams are 2-2-1 in this series; last meeting was 37-all tie in 2014. Bengals had three extra days to prep, having played last Thursday.
Titans (1-1) @ Jaguars (2-0)— Since 2014, Tennessee is 9-23-1 vs spread on road, 7-17 as road underdogs, 0-8 as an AFC South road dog. Titans won four of last five series games; they swept Jags 37-16/15-10 LY, despite Jax making run to AFC title game. Tennessee lost five of last seven visits here. Jaguars beat New England LW, avenging loss in AFC title game; do they let down here? Jags are 4-2 in last six games as home favorites; since ’09, Jaguars are 8-2 vs spread as a home favorite in divisional games- they lost LT Robinson (ACL) for the year. Titans beat Houston LW with backup QB Gabbert playing; they had 66-yard TD pass on a fake punt, 2nd week in row they scored on special teams.
Saints (1-1) @ Falcons (1-1)— New Orleans lost six of its last seven road openers; over is 7-3 in their last 10 road openers. Last four years, Saints are 12-7-1 vs spread as road underdogs; 6-2 in NFC South games. Falcons are 6-3 vs spread in last nine home games; they ran ball for 170 yards in win over Carolina LW. Over is 11-6 in Atlanta’s last 17 home games. So far this season, home favorites are 3-5 vs spread, in divisional games. Atlanta is 5-3 in last eight games in this rivalry; Saints lost 38-32/20-17 in last two visits here. Last three years, under is 12-10-1 in NO road games. Reality is this; had Cleveland chosen the right kicker in camp, Saints would be 0-2 right now.
Broncos (2-0) @ Ravens (1-1)— Denver won its first two games (both at home) by total of four points; they won their road opener four of last five years, but since 2012, they’re 4-11 vs spread as road underdogs. Broncos outrushed first two foes 314-156; they rallied back from down 19-9 in 3rd quarter to beat Oakland LW. Ravens had three days extra prep time since Cincinnati loss LW; they’ve scored nine TD’s on 26 drives this year, scoring 62 points on nine red zone drives. Baltimore is 8-6 vs spread in last 14 games as home favorites; Broncos lost five of last six visits here, with one win six years ago. NFL-wide, home favorites are 4-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.
Giants (0-2) @ Texans (0-2)— Under O’Brien, Houston is 14-7-1 as home favorites, but after an 0-2 start, Texan fans are calling for O’Brien’s head- big game here. Texans are just 7-22 on 3rd down thru two games- they gave up a 66-yard TD on a fake punt LW. Giants are 9-12-2 in last 23 games as road underdogs; Big Blue scored only two TD’s on 22 drives this year— they’ve been outsacked 8-1, averaging only 5.4/4.4 yards/pass attempt. Giants won last three series games, by 4-24-13 points; they split two visits here. Houston is 6-2 in its last eight home openers, 5-5 vs spread when favored in home openers- under is 9-4 in their last 13 HO’s. Under is 14-9 in Houston’s last 23 home games.
Raiders (0-2) @ Dolphins (2-0)— Oakland’s starters are oldest in NFL; they’ve been outscored 43-7 in second half of first two games, after leading both games at halftime. Raiders gave up 308 rushing yards in two games; since 2015, they’re 10-7-1 as road underdogs. Dolphins won their first two games, with three takeaways in each game (+2); over last decade, Miami is just 12-29-2 vs spread as home favorites. Over is 11-4 in Dolphins’ last 15 home games; under is 8-2 in Oakland’s last ten road tilts. Miami won 11 of last 14 series games, with last four wins all by 16+ points; Raiders won 27-24 here LY, just their 2nd win in last nine visits to South Beach.
Packers (1-0-1) @ Redskins (1-1)— Green Bay tied Vikings last week, but scored only one offensive TD, tried six FG’s; thru two games, Pack has scored only 26 points on seven red zone drives. Washington didn’t score TD in 21-9 home loss to Colts LW; they kicked FG’s on both their red zone drives. Under Gruden, Redskins are 7-8 as home underdogs- under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games. Packers won six of last eight series games; average total in last three meetings was 59. Pack split their last four meetings here. Green Bay lost four of its last six road openers; over is 10-2 in their last dozen. Since 2014, Packers are 10-8 as road favorites; over is 13-3 in their last 16 road games.
Bills (0-2) @ Vikings (1-0-1)— Buffalo trailed first two games 26-0/28-6 at halftime; they’ve got rookie QB making his first road start here. Bills are 7-29 on third down- they’ve gone 3/out 15 times on 24 drives. Since 2014, Bills are 13-10 as road underdogs. Minnesota has new kicker (Bailey) after LW’s tie in Green Bay; under Zimmer, Vikings are 19-5 as home favorites, 2-0 when laying double digits. Buffalo won three of last four series games, with all three wins by 5 or fewer points, or in OT; they lost four of five visits here, with one win a 45-39 OT win in 2002. Last five years, Week 3 underdogs of 6+ points who lost their first two games are 7-6 vs spread, 2-2 if getting double digits.
49ers (1-1) @ Chiefs (2-0)— Mahomes has thrown 10 TD’s in first two games; this is his 4th NFL start, but his first home start. Chiefs have 10 TD’s, only one FGA in two games, averaging 9.1, 11.1 yards/pass attempt- four of their 10 TD’s came on plays of 25+ yards. KC is 2-9-1 vs spread in its last 12 home openers; under Reid, they’re 16-14 as home favorites. 49ers are 8-7 in last 15 games as road underdogs; they’re 8-24 on 3rd down so far this season. 49ers are 7-5 in series, with home side winning last nine series games; 49ers are 0-4 here, losing by 7-35-31-21 points. Under is 6-3 in 49ers’ last nine road games; last five years, under is 26-14 in Arrowhead games.
Chargers (1-1) @ Rams (2-0)— Over last decade, Chargers are 31-18-3 vs spread as underdogs on road; they scored seven TD’s on 20 drives in splitting first two games, but gave up three TD plays of 35+ yards in Week 1 loss to Chiefs. Rams allowed TD on Oakland’s first drive in Week 1; since then, they’ve allowed only two FGA’s on 18 drives. All six of Rams’ TD drives on offense have been less than 60 yards- they outscored first two opponents 38-0 in second half. These teams will be sharing a new domed stadium in two years; home side won last seven series games- three of last four meetings were decided by 4 or fewer points. Under McVay, Rams are 4-3 as home favorites; under is 24-17 in Chargers’ last 41 road games.
Bears (1-1) @ Cardinals (0-2)— Long travel, short week for Bear squad that outscored first two opponents 27-3 in first half; they beat Seattle at home Monday night, have 10 sacks in two games, scored defensive TD in both games, but young QB Trubisky scares the hell out of me- this is a huge trap game for Bears, since Arizona was so dismal in its 0-2 start. Cardinals were outscored 58-6 in their first two games, with nine 3/outs on 18 drives; if they keep starting Bradford, Arizona is unbettable, since Bradford looks scared of getting hit. Chicago won six of last nine series games; they won four of five visits to the desert. Bears are road favorite for only 2nd time in last five years; last time they were favored by this much on road was 2012.
Cowboys (1-1) @ Seahawks (0-2)— Seattle won its last nine home openers, and 14 of last 15; last two were 12-10/12-9. Under is 14-2-1 in their last 17 home openers. Short week for Seahawks after 24-17 loss in Chicago Monday; they’re 1-7 in last eight games as home favorites, 7-25 on 3rd down, have run for only 138 yards- their OL is awful. Dallas has only two plays of 20+ yards in its first two games; they’re 5-21 on 3rd down; Prescott misses departed playmakers, Witten, Bryant. Under Garrett, Cowboys are 22-14 as road underdogs. Home side lost last three series games, with Seattle winning last two, 13-12/21-12; Cowboys split eight visits here, with last one in ’14. Under is 17-7 in last 24 Dallas road games.
Patriots (1-1) @ Lions (0-2)— Matt Patricia was a Patriot assistant for 17 years; now he is 0-2 as Lions’ head coach, and faces his mentor here. Detroit allowed 78 points in losing its first two games, giving up seven TD’s, five FGA’s on 22 drives- they’re -4 in turnovers. Since 2011, Detroit is 3-11-1 as a home underdog. Over last decade, New England is 24-10 vs spread coming off a loss; they’re 11-5 in last 16 games as road favorites, 13-5 vs NFC teams. Will Josh Gordon play here? Patriots averaged only 6.5/5.9 yards/pass attempt in first two games- they’re 8-26 on third down- my guess is he plays. Last five years, Week 3 underdogs of 6+ points who lost their first two games are 7-6 vs spread.
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