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2-Unit Play. Take #544 Arkansas (-6.5) over South Carolina (7 p.m.)
We've been betting against the Razorbacks because they've been playing on the road. But now they are back home, where they are a very different team. The Gamecocks got run at Texas A&M over the weekend and now they have another difficult road trip here. USC doesn't take care of the ball very well. And if Arkansas can get easy baskets in transition or off turnovers then they will win this one going away. The Gamecocks have lost three straight and four of their last five. I don't see them hanging around here.
2-Unit Play. Take #519 Xavier (+3.5) over Butler (6:30 p.m.)
The X-Men have road wins at St. John's, Seton Hall and Marquette and I think that they can get this win here. Butler has won four in a row against most of the weaker teams in the league. But they have lost to just about any of the good teams they have played in league play and I still don't love this team's roster.
1-Unit Play. Take #523 Central Florida (+15) over Cincinnati (7 p.m.)
I think this is too many points for the Bearcats to lay out. Central Florida isn't the same team without Tacko Fall, but they aren't completely worthless. The Bearcats aren't playing in their home gym, instead playing in nearby Northern Kentucky. And even though they have been completely dominating at home they may be getting a little overvalued here.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #519 Xavier (+8.5) over Butler (6:30 p.m.) AND Take #526 Western Michigan (-2.5) over Miami, OH (7 p.m.)
7-Unit Play. Take #526 Western Michigan (-7.5) over Miami, OH (7 p.m.)
This line jumped out at me. About 70 percent of the public is on Miami, OH in this one. But this number, which already started out pretty high, has continues to climb and has even reached 8.0 at some books. WMU needed a crazy comeback to beat the Redhawks on the road and they haven't exactly been that impressive through MAC play. But yet here they are as a nearly double-digit home chalk. I think they are finally set up for that blowout that I have been waiting for them to deal out at home. This team has played the most difficult league schedule of any team in the MAC, while Miami, OH, which has surpassed its modest preseason expectations, has been able to go up against the No. 12 rated schedule in the league. Miami has won back-to-back games, but they have come against two of the league's worst. WMU is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. They played really well on the road against Buffalo, the league's best team, over the weekend. And maybe this team can finally turn a corner. Either way, the reverse line movement and the inverted betting pattern on this game jumped out at me and I think the Broncos can finally come through for me after a disappointing year so far.
3-Unit Play. Take #532 Northwestern (+2) over Michigan (7 p.m.)
I think that Michigan has been playing over its head for most of this system. John Beilein is a savant and he has a great system kicking. But should the Wolverines really be favored on the road here? Northwestern is definitely the more desperate team in this game. And they have a revenge motivation after losing at Michigan just over a week ago. The Wildcats are 4-2 AS in the last six in this series and the home team has dominated, winning eight straight outright. Michigan needed OT to beat hapless Minnesota over the weekend and they could be wobbling. Again, Northwestern absolutely needs this one and I expect them to max out here as a home dog.
4-Unit Play. Take #542 Kentucky (-1.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m.)
I really like this Tennessee team. I do. These guys are solid and they are legit. But they are going up against a very angry Kentucky team here in Lexington. The Wildcats have fallen out of one poll, and deservedly so because they aren't that good. But they are at home (so you know they will get all the calls) and they will have a strong home crowd at their backs. They also are desperate because they need to get this win to get things turned around and shore up their potential NCAA bid. Beyond that, they also have revenge against the Vols for a loss in Knoxville this season. Tennessee has played a cupcake SEC schedule to this point. So even though I like their long-term prospects I think they are in trouble tonight.
4-Unit Play. Take #546 Mississippi State (-3) over Alabama (7 p.m.)
I don't buy into this Mississippi State team at all. But they are definitely in a decent spot here. Alabama is in a big-time letdown spot after playing their best game of the year in an 18-point win over Florida. They shot nearly 60 percent from the field and played out of their minds. But now they have to go on the road and take on a hot Bulldogs team that A) has been really good at home and B) is playing with revenge for a loss earlier in the year. This Crimson Tide team is shaky as hell. They are really young so you can expect them to be up and down. And after such a big effort in Gainesville I think they will revert back to the team that we've seen fall on its face on the road all season.
2-Unit Play. Take #549 Boston College (+7) over Notre Dame (8 p.m.)
I think this number is a little strong for an Irish team that isn't any good. Matt Farrell still isn't 100 percent. And it is not like the Irish have a lot of confidence after dumping seven straight games. They are on an 0-5 ATS slide and even with Farrell they got blasted by 18 at North Carolina State over the weekend. This B.C. team is scrappy. And outside of blowout losses at Syracuse and UNC they have been a very tough out on the road. This is definitely a rivalry game and I think it means more to the Eagles. I'll take a stab with the dog here.
2-Unit Play. Take #547 Baylor (+2) over Oklahoma State (8 p.m.)
This is a killer letdown spot for Oklahoma State, which is coming off a wild upset win at Kansas. This team is erratic and has been up and down all year. But they haven't handled success well, going 0-3 in their last three games after a win. Baylor dominated the Cowboys in the first meeting, winning by 16, and I think that this Bears team is due. They have had a brutal schedule over the past two weeks. But if you look back, four of their last seven losses have come by three points or less. So this team is a bit better than its record suggest. I think they can pull the upset here.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #552 Providence (-2.5) over Georgetown (8:30 p.m.) AND Take #544 Arkansas (-2) over South Carolina (7 p.m.)
4-Unit Play. Take #552 Providence (-7.5) over Georgetown (8:30 p.m.)
I think the Hoyas are in a bit of a letdown spot here after a rough OT loss at Xavier over the weekend. These guys are young and shaky and they haven't been very good on the road. Providence is a team that is better than its record. They dominated Butler, Creighton and Xavier at home and after a tough three-game road stretch they are back home and ready to pick up another win. This is a bad matchup for the Hoyas.
2-Unit Play. Take #554 Minnesota (-3) over Nebraska (9 p.m.)
This is another spread that jumped out at me. Minnesota has been banged up, they have had off-court issues, and they have lost five straight (and eight of nine). Yet they are favored in this game? That's a red flag. Nebraska has been vulnerable on the road. And they haven't played in over a week so they could have to knock some rust off. The home team is 9-0 ATS in this series and the Golden Gophers should be the more desperate team in this one.
4-Unit Play. Take #565 Boise State (Pk) over New Mexico (10 p.m.)
Boise State won but couldn't come through for me on Saturday. I will try to buy back with them here. Boise State won by nearly 30 in the first meeting. And even though this team is 6-1 SU in their last seven games they are just 2-5 ATS, meaning I think they are due to beat a number. New Mexico is not a good team. They are in the early stages of their rebuild. And I think that they have been playing over their heads for about a month. They've managed to keep things rolling without leading scorer Sam Logwood, but over time that is going to catch up with them. Boise is one of the best teams in the league and they are good enough to claw out a road win here.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
2-Unit Play. Take #544 Arkansas (-6.5) over South Carolina (7 p.m.)
We've been betting against the Razorbacks because they've been playing on the road. But now they are back home, where they are a very different team. The Gamecocks got run at Texas A&M over the weekend and now they have another difficult road trip here. USC doesn't take care of the ball very well. And if Arkansas can get easy baskets in transition or off turnovers then they will win this one going away. The Gamecocks have lost three straight and four of their last five. I don't see them hanging around here.
2-Unit Play. Take #519 Xavier (+3.5) over Butler (6:30 p.m.)
The X-Men have road wins at St. John's, Seton Hall and Marquette and I think that they can get this win here. Butler has won four in a row against most of the weaker teams in the league. But they have lost to just about any of the good teams they have played in league play and I still don't love this team's roster.
1-Unit Play. Take #523 Central Florida (+15) over Cincinnati (7 p.m.)
I think this is too many points for the Bearcats to lay out. Central Florida isn't the same team without Tacko Fall, but they aren't completely worthless. The Bearcats aren't playing in their home gym, instead playing in nearby Northern Kentucky. And even though they have been completely dominating at home they may be getting a little overvalued here.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #519 Xavier (+8.5) over Butler (6:30 p.m.) AND Take #526 Western Michigan (-2.5) over Miami, OH (7 p.m.)
7-Unit Play. Take #526 Western Michigan (-7.5) over Miami, OH (7 p.m.)
This line jumped out at me. About 70 percent of the public is on Miami, OH in this one. But this number, which already started out pretty high, has continues to climb and has even reached 8.0 at some books. WMU needed a crazy comeback to beat the Redhawks on the road and they haven't exactly been that impressive through MAC play. But yet here they are as a nearly double-digit home chalk. I think they are finally set up for that blowout that I have been waiting for them to deal out at home. This team has played the most difficult league schedule of any team in the MAC, while Miami, OH, which has surpassed its modest preseason expectations, has been able to go up against the No. 12 rated schedule in the league. Miami has won back-to-back games, but they have come against two of the league's worst. WMU is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. They played really well on the road against Buffalo, the league's best team, over the weekend. And maybe this team can finally turn a corner. Either way, the reverse line movement and the inverted betting pattern on this game jumped out at me and I think the Broncos can finally come through for me after a disappointing year so far.
3-Unit Play. Take #532 Northwestern (+2) over Michigan (7 p.m.)
I think that Michigan has been playing over its head for most of this system. John Beilein is a savant and he has a great system kicking. But should the Wolverines really be favored on the road here? Northwestern is definitely the more desperate team in this game. And they have a revenge motivation after losing at Michigan just over a week ago. The Wildcats are 4-2 AS in the last six in this series and the home team has dominated, winning eight straight outright. Michigan needed OT to beat hapless Minnesota over the weekend and they could be wobbling. Again, Northwestern absolutely needs this one and I expect them to max out here as a home dog.
4-Unit Play. Take #542 Kentucky (-1.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m.)
I really like this Tennessee team. I do. These guys are solid and they are legit. But they are going up against a very angry Kentucky team here in Lexington. The Wildcats have fallen out of one poll, and deservedly so because they aren't that good. But they are at home (so you know they will get all the calls) and they will have a strong home crowd at their backs. They also are desperate because they need to get this win to get things turned around and shore up their potential NCAA bid. Beyond that, they also have revenge against the Vols for a loss in Knoxville this season. Tennessee has played a cupcake SEC schedule to this point. So even though I like their long-term prospects I think they are in trouble tonight.
4-Unit Play. Take #546 Mississippi State (-3) over Alabama (7 p.m.)
I don't buy into this Mississippi State team at all. But they are definitely in a decent spot here. Alabama is in a big-time letdown spot after playing their best game of the year in an 18-point win over Florida. They shot nearly 60 percent from the field and played out of their minds. But now they have to go on the road and take on a hot Bulldogs team that A) has been really good at home and B) is playing with revenge for a loss earlier in the year. This Crimson Tide team is shaky as hell. They are really young so you can expect them to be up and down. And after such a big effort in Gainesville I think they will revert back to the team that we've seen fall on its face on the road all season.
2-Unit Play. Take #549 Boston College (+7) over Notre Dame (8 p.m.)
I think this number is a little strong for an Irish team that isn't any good. Matt Farrell still isn't 100 percent. And it is not like the Irish have a lot of confidence after dumping seven straight games. They are on an 0-5 ATS slide and even with Farrell they got blasted by 18 at North Carolina State over the weekend. This B.C. team is scrappy. And outside of blowout losses at Syracuse and UNC they have been a very tough out on the road. This is definitely a rivalry game and I think it means more to the Eagles. I'll take a stab with the dog here.
2-Unit Play. Take #547 Baylor (+2) over Oklahoma State (8 p.m.)
This is a killer letdown spot for Oklahoma State, which is coming off a wild upset win at Kansas. This team is erratic and has been up and down all year. But they haven't handled success well, going 0-3 in their last three games after a win. Baylor dominated the Cowboys in the first meeting, winning by 16, and I think that this Bears team is due. They have had a brutal schedule over the past two weeks. But if you look back, four of their last seven losses have come by three points or less. So this team is a bit better than its record suggest. I think they can pull the upset here.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #552 Providence (-2.5) over Georgetown (8:30 p.m.) AND Take #544 Arkansas (-2) over South Carolina (7 p.m.)
4-Unit Play. Take #552 Providence (-7.5) over Georgetown (8:30 p.m.)
I think the Hoyas are in a bit of a letdown spot here after a rough OT loss at Xavier over the weekend. These guys are young and shaky and they haven't been very good on the road. Providence is a team that is better than its record. They dominated Butler, Creighton and Xavier at home and after a tough three-game road stretch they are back home and ready to pick up another win. This is a bad matchup for the Hoyas.
2-Unit Play. Take #554 Minnesota (-3) over Nebraska (9 p.m.)
This is another spread that jumped out at me. Minnesota has been banged up, they have had off-court issues, and they have lost five straight (and eight of nine). Yet they are favored in this game? That's a red flag. Nebraska has been vulnerable on the road. And they haven't played in over a week so they could have to knock some rust off. The home team is 9-0 ATS in this series and the Golden Gophers should be the more desperate team in this one.
4-Unit Play. Take #565 Boise State (Pk) over New Mexico (10 p.m.)
Boise State won but couldn't come through for me on Saturday. I will try to buy back with them here. Boise State won by nearly 30 in the first meeting. And even though this team is 6-1 SU in their last seven games they are just 2-5 ATS, meaning I think they are due to beat a number. New Mexico is not a good team. They are in the early stages of their rebuild. And I think that they have been playing over their heads for about a month. They've managed to keep things rolling without leading scorer Sam Logwood, but over time that is going to catch up with them. Boise is one of the best teams in the league and they are good enough to claw out a road win here.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
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