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5% Over 43.5 ATL/CAR
The reigning NFC champion Atlanta Falcons (4-3) play their second straight road game this week when they take a short trip to Charlotte to face off against conference foe Carolina Panthers (5-3).
The Falcons found a way to battle through a closely contested event in New York eventually working a 25-20 win against the Jets which snapped a three-game slide. The market value of the Falcons has dropped considerably since the start of the 2017-18 campaign. Not only have the public cooled on Matt Ryan and the Falcons but the oddsmakers have made their adjustments on the point-spreads and totals involving the team.
Ryan was 18 out of 29 passes for 254-yards and two touchdowns against the Jets at MetLife. What should be remembers is that the aforementioned numbers game in less than ideal conditions for both offenses.
The Panthers defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday and did so by finding ways to hinder Winston and the Bucs offense. Carolina secured a 17-3 victory ending a losing streak of their own, albeit a two game slide.
Panthers field general Cam Newton has been extremely inconsistent after starting the season with a shoulder injury that created little to no preseason reps with his offensive 'mates. Newton completed just 18-of-32 passes for 154-yards and one touchdown in Sunday's win over Tampa.
The Falcons and the Panthers were involved in two high scoring events a year ago, with both games being won by Atlanta by scores of 48-33 and 33-16. However the first game between these two squads last year was the only Over the Total result in three years. The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight games between these two sides. The adjustment the oddsmakers have made in this event is significant compared to the O/U closing numbers in recent history.
This is the weekend when the Falcons trio of Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman break-out and look more like the group OC Kyle Shanahan managed a season ago. There are a hundred-and-one reasons for the second half to be more offensive for the Birds than in the first half of the campaign.
Atlanta ranks in the top 5 in total offense with 374.4 yards gained per game but the team is middle in the pack in points scored per game at just 21.9. The result of their struggles in the red zone have been for two reasons. 1) The offense is under new leadership with SS running the show rather than Shanahan. 2) The level of competition in the first eight games of the season have come against capable defenses, especially units that have player personnel with success in defending the red zone.
FALCONS REGULAR SEASON RESULTS
@ BearsW 23-17
vs PackersW 34-23
@ LionsW 30-26
vs BillsL 23-17
vs DolphinsL 20-17
@ PatriotsL 23-7
@ JetsW 25-20
Four of the Falcons first seven games have come on the road. Played on slower surfaces, save Ford Field, against defenses that have been solid in the red zone this year.
The Dirty Birds scored touchdowns on 64 percent of their red zone chances in 2016. This season they’re finding success a mere 48 percent of the time when they get inside the 20 yard line.
While Carolina was defensively successful against the Bucs a week ago don't expect the same results this Sunday against the Falcons. In Sunday’s win against the Jets, Ryan was able to connect with seven different targets. And again, the Panthers haven't had the same success in the red zone against spread offenses with veteran quarterbacks.
PANTHERS REGULAR SEASON RESULTS
@ 49ersW 23-3
vs BillsW 9-3
vs SaintsL 34-13
@ PatriotsW 33-30
@ LionsW 27-24
vs EaglesL 28-23
@ BearsL 17-3
@ BuccaneersW 17-3
Newton has not executed with outside of the pocket this season. He has thrown eleven interceptions and he and his teammates have committed six turnovers in the last three games alone.
To the Panthers defense rookie hybrid Christian McCaffrey is beginning to form a relationship with the Newton offense and is becoming a balance threat. Ignore the total yards of McCaffrey in the clubs last three games (41 combined rushing/receiving yards). Considering that McCaffrey has a mere 378-yards and two touchdowns on the season the inconsistencies of Newton are directly related to the offense not using McCaffrey more. That changes in the second half of the season. has a direct relation to some of the Newton struggles this season..
However, this weekend you can count on the Panthers being a pass-happy scheme, and the same can be expected from the Falcons. McCaffrey, Newton and company won't test the strength of the Falcons interior, Grady Jarrett and Dontari Poe, but play action all afternoon from Cam keeps Deion Jones honoring the run and the Panthers easily exceed their offensive number of the last two games, a pair of road events, against two solid defensive units.
Despite coming into a hostile environment at Bank of America Stadium, I predict the Falcons will keep their feet on the gas pedal and will shift momentum in the NFC South with a key victory against the Panthers.
The Falcons have not scored less than 20 points the entire season and have a solid matchup through the air against the Panthers on Sunday
5% Over 43.5 ATL/CAR
The reigning NFC champion Atlanta Falcons (4-3) play their second straight road game this week when they take a short trip to Charlotte to face off against conference foe Carolina Panthers (5-3).
The Falcons found a way to battle through a closely contested event in New York eventually working a 25-20 win against the Jets which snapped a three-game slide. The market value of the Falcons has dropped considerably since the start of the 2017-18 campaign. Not only have the public cooled on Matt Ryan and the Falcons but the oddsmakers have made their adjustments on the point-spreads and totals involving the team.
Ryan was 18 out of 29 passes for 254-yards and two touchdowns against the Jets at MetLife. What should be remembers is that the aforementioned numbers game in less than ideal conditions for both offenses.
The Panthers defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this past Sunday and did so by finding ways to hinder Winston and the Bucs offense. Carolina secured a 17-3 victory ending a losing streak of their own, albeit a two game slide.
Panthers field general Cam Newton has been extremely inconsistent after starting the season with a shoulder injury that created little to no preseason reps with his offensive 'mates. Newton completed just 18-of-32 passes for 154-yards and one touchdown in Sunday's win over Tampa.
The Falcons and the Panthers were involved in two high scoring events a year ago, with both games being won by Atlanta by scores of 48-33 and 33-16. However the first game between these two squads last year was the only Over the Total result in three years. The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight games between these two sides. The adjustment the oddsmakers have made in this event is significant compared to the O/U closing numbers in recent history.
This is the weekend when the Falcons trio of Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman break-out and look more like the group OC Kyle Shanahan managed a season ago. There are a hundred-and-one reasons for the second half to be more offensive for the Birds than in the first half of the campaign.
Atlanta ranks in the top 5 in total offense with 374.4 yards gained per game but the team is middle in the pack in points scored per game at just 21.9. The result of their struggles in the red zone have been for two reasons. 1) The offense is under new leadership with SS running the show rather than Shanahan. 2) The level of competition in the first eight games of the season have come against capable defenses, especially units that have player personnel with success in defending the red zone.
FALCONS REGULAR SEASON RESULTS
@ BearsW 23-17
vs PackersW 34-23
@ LionsW 30-26
vs BillsL 23-17
vs DolphinsL 20-17
@ PatriotsL 23-7
@ JetsW 25-20
Four of the Falcons first seven games have come on the road. Played on slower surfaces, save Ford Field, against defenses that have been solid in the red zone this year.
The Dirty Birds scored touchdowns on 64 percent of their red zone chances in 2016. This season they’re finding success a mere 48 percent of the time when they get inside the 20 yard line.
While Carolina was defensively successful against the Bucs a week ago don't expect the same results this Sunday against the Falcons. In Sunday’s win against the Jets, Ryan was able to connect with seven different targets. And again, the Panthers haven't had the same success in the red zone against spread offenses with veteran quarterbacks.
PANTHERS REGULAR SEASON RESULTS
@ 49ersW 23-3
vs BillsW 9-3
vs SaintsL 34-13
@ PatriotsW 33-30
@ LionsW 27-24
vs EaglesL 28-23
@ BearsL 17-3
@ BuccaneersW 17-3
Newton has not executed with outside of the pocket this season. He has thrown eleven interceptions and he and his teammates have committed six turnovers in the last three games alone.
To the Panthers defense rookie hybrid Christian McCaffrey is beginning to form a relationship with the Newton offense and is becoming a balance threat. Ignore the total yards of McCaffrey in the clubs last three games (41 combined rushing/receiving yards). Considering that McCaffrey has a mere 378-yards and two touchdowns on the season the inconsistencies of Newton are directly related to the offense not using McCaffrey more. That changes in the second half of the season. has a direct relation to some of the Newton struggles this season..
However, this weekend you can count on the Panthers being a pass-happy scheme, and the same can be expected from the Falcons. McCaffrey, Newton and company won't test the strength of the Falcons interior, Grady Jarrett and Dontari Poe, but play action all afternoon from Cam keeps Deion Jones honoring the run and the Panthers easily exceed their offensive number of the last two games, a pair of road events, against two solid defensive units.
Despite coming into a hostile environment at Bank of America Stadium, I predict the Falcons will keep their feet on the gas pedal and will shift momentum in the NFC South with a key victory against the Panthers.
The Falcons have not scored less than 20 points the entire season and have a solid matchup through the air against the Panthers on Sunday
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