Saturday 10-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Marc Lawrence


Texas AM

[New York Knight]

SCOTT SPREITZER

Northwestern -3

I'm laying the points with Northwestern over Maryland on Saturday afternoon. Cluster injuries are bad no matter where they take place on a football team, but when it happens to the QB position, there's simply no way of making up ground and picking up the slack. Maryland was already down their top two QBs and now may have lost their third. Young Max Bortenschlager was forced into action the last few games due to injuries to those in front of him, but he's now banged-up after suffering a head injury. Bortenschlager is listed as questionable for this contest. If he can't go, the Terps will be down to their 4th string QB, a transfer from North Carolina. If he plays, we're fine with laying the points as the young signal caller has not intimidated any defensive backfields. Maryland was already ranked 122nd through the air and 108th in total yards gained per game. The Maryland pass defense isn't much better, allowing over 36 ppg. I expect the Terps to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Northwestern to climb back to .500 and claim their first conference win of the season. The Wildcats have covered 11 of their last 15 road games and we'll back them here. I'm backing Northwestern minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[New York Knight]

Doc’s Sports

#191 Take Missouri Tigers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday, 7:30 pm SEC Network)

The Tigers offense finally came to life last week putting up 568 yards and 34 points in a losing effort against Kentucky. Georgia is for real this season but they are a more defensive team and does not have an explosive offense that can put up a ton of points week in week out. If Missouri does not allow the Bulldogs to score points on defense or special teams they should be able to cover this huge number. We used Oregon State last week as a free pick and this fits into the same category. Just do not see Georgia getting all that excited to blowout Missouri at home.

[New York Knight]

DENNIS MACKLIN

DMacks Free Play for NCAAF action Saturday, October 14, 2017, is on the Virginia Cavaliers

Props to former BYU ringmaster Bronco Mendenhall who has done a great job turning this downtrodden Wahoo program around. Virginia is 4-1 and comes off a nice win over a pretty good Duke team. UVa QB Benkert is a fiery fearless type and can throw the ball around (12 TDs) with anyone. North Carolina is in a 1-5 SU and ATS freefall that doesn't figure to get much better with Miami and V Tech on deck. Frosh QB Surrat is going to be good but is not getting much help as the Heels are finding life without Mitch Trubisky is not all that it's cracked up to be. Take Virginia.

[New York Knight]

CHASE DIAMOND

NCAA-F | Oct 14, 2017
Northwestern vs. Maryland

Maryland +3½

This game features the 2-3 Northwestern at the 3-2 Maryland. Watching most of Northwestern last week I really saw how bad this team is especially on offense. Maryland is home after getting blown out by OSU and won't be in a good mood when they take on Northwestern. Wild Cats are 0-2 on the road and I know Maryland is down to it's 4th QB but I think they have easily enough to keep it within 3. Maryland is 4-1 80% ATS versus teams with a losing record. Take Maryland for a 15* winner.

[New York Knight]

Teddy Davis

Kansas State +7

Last week was a chance for TCU to prove they were one of those team to be considered in the top 10. I wasn't very impressed as they were 2 touchdown favorites over West Virginia. They did win the game by 7 but were also out gained by over 100 yards.

Kansas St I was against and did get a lucky win on Texas but came away very impressed with the Wildcats. So the line is going up here because Ertz the Kansas St QB is out. If you watched the game vs Texas last week he was banged up then and the back up got some quality minutes and I liked what I saw from him handling that situation.

Let's no over react here and just take the points with a live home underdog. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas St come away with a win

[New York Knight]

Mark Franco

San Diego State - 7

Off to its best start since 1975 and armed with its highest ranking since 1978, unbeaten San Diego State has its sights set on a New Year's Six bowl. The 18th-ranked Aztecs face perhaps their biggest obstacle in that regard when they host Boise State in Mountain West play on Saturday night.

The Aztecs, led by Heisman Trophy contender Rashaad Penny, have won back-to-back Mountain West championships, but head coach Rocky Long says most people east of the Rocky Mountains "know who Boise State is and they don't know who the rest of us are. ... Those people associate our league with Boise because of history." Never mind, as Long is quick to point out, that the Broncos, also known for their home blue "Smurf Turf", have reached the Mountain West title game just once in the past four years and have lost five league games over the last two years.

Broncos are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

[New York Knight]

Andrew Gold

Nebraska +24½

I know this will be a tough pill to swallow here taking Nebraska after what we have seen so far. I think people are forgetting the fact that Nebraska was tied with Wisconsin last week 17-17 in the 3rd quarter. They haven't completely thrown in the towel for the season and we are seeing a massive inflated line.

So yes Ohio St has got their offense up and running big time but they played Rutgers and Maryland the last two weeks. So the fact their offense looks good shouldn't surprise anyone. Remember game 1 this year they were favored by 20.5 @ Indiana. So now since Nebraska has looked poor they are worse than Indiana? I'm not buying it.

I think we see a big effort here as this is the biggest home underdog they have ever been.

[New York Knight]

Eric Schroeder

I had a chance to speak with a national reporter from Southern California, and he knows all about both USC and UCLA. He said he was planned on attending the Utah-Southern Cal game Saturday, because, in his words: "it's always a good game."

Then I looked at the number.

I'll take the double-digit road underdog.

I hate to say it, but I think the Trojans are falling off a bit, and appear to be less in sync than we saw at the beginning of the season. I'm not sure what has happened with quarterback Sam Darnold, but he's been sloppy of late, and that won't bode well against a feisty Utah defense.

Keep in mind Darnold made his first career start against Utah last season. He lost. And now, while he has passed for 1,705 yards with 12 touchdowns, he's also fired nine interceptions and has coughed up a handful of key fumbles.

Utah will be looking to avenge its first loss of the season, falling 23-20 to Stanford. And with this game being a prime-time contest on ABC, I think the Utes will be looking to prove themselves as a continued growing power from the Pac 12.

Also, with a win, Utah could return to the Top 25 rankings, and that will begin stirring the coffee of bowl committees.

Take the road pup here, as the Utes keep things under double digits.

2* UTAH

[New York Knight]

ASA

Mississippi State -23.5

We love this spot for the Bulldogs. They are rested coming off a bye and will be fully focused on this game for a few different reasons. First of all, going into the bye MSU lost @ Georgia and @ Auburn. Two straight losses should have them extra hungry here. Also nothing terrible about those losses as we are seeing UGA is probably a top 5 team and Auburn a top 10 team. Secondly, the Dogs lost @ BYU last year 28-21 in overtime. It was a game in which MSU had more first downs and more total yardage but lost. Their QB Fitzgerald, who is the starter again this year, had a poor game completing under 50% of his passes with 2 interceptions. You can bet he’s been waiting for this game. Before their two losses to Georgia and Auburn, the Bulldogs outscored their first 3 opponents 143-28. That included a 37-7 home win over LSU. No fluke in that game as they outgained the Tigers by nearly 200 yards. Speaking of the LSU Tigers, BYU just happened to play them as well this year. That was a 27-0 BYU loss and the Cougs were outgained by almost 400 yards. Put those numbers side by side of their one comparable opponent and there is no comparison. BYU’s offense is bad. They have been held to 13 points or less in 4 of their 5 games and they rank 2nd to last in college football in total offense (231 YPG). Their starting QB Tanner Mangum is not at 100% with a bad ankle. He was noticeably favoring his leg in their most recent 24-7 home loss to Boise State. If he isn’t effective or can’t go, BYU will call on freshman Critchlow who had his redshirt pulled last week and threw 4 passes vs Boise. Against a solid SEC defense, this BYU offense will do very little again this week. An early 12 PM ET start for a west coast team isn’t conducive either. This has the makings of a blowout.

[New York Knight]

BIG AL

Oklahoma -7.5

Last week, the Sooners lost by 7 points, as a 31-point favorite, at home, to Iowa State. So, they failed to cover the pointspread by a whopping 38 points. But that exceptionally poor performance sets up our play on this Saturday And one of the things I like to do is play on College Football teams off an upset loss, in which they failed to cover the spread by 35 or more points. And if our team is playing an opponent off a straight-up and against-the-spread win, then our system has gone 63% ATS since 1980. That’s one reason I really like the Sooners to bounce back. Another is that Oklahoma has quietly dominated away from home in the regular season when it plays winning teams. It’s 22-5 straight up and 21-6 ATS in this situation, including a perfect 10-0 SU/ATS when priced from -3.5 to -10 points.

[New York Knight]

Mike Anthony

Duke +7

5.87 YPC senior RB, Shaun Wilson- can absolutely move the ball and create big plays on the field for Duke to get into great position on the field. If the Blue Devils pick up the important 1st downs and Wilson picks up his typical tough yards - there is just no possible way Florida State can beat this Duke team. Ball control and on the field leadership has been key for Duke and their running game. Just not 100% sure the sad offense of FSU is the most efficient way to try to scare Duke and their struggle to get points on the board has been proven. Defensive Coordinator, Charles Kelly will be forced into getting more out of their mediocre defenders to put more work into their defense than Kelly will feel comfortable doing trying to stop the backs of Duke. The Seminoles only have 1 win over the season - and it was a against a poor running Wake Forest. Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Duke pulls the upset here at home.

[New York Knight]

DAVE COKIN

SOUTH CAROLINA +3

No reason not to come right back with South Carolina after winning last week with the Gamecocks. That also means continuing to go against Tennessee.

The main conversation in Vols country right now is not whether Butch Jones will be back, but rather who will be replacing him. The media has basically already fired Jones.

Normally, I might expect a big effort from a team off a 41-0 home loss and a subsequent bye week to get things right. But the program is a mess, and I wonder if the time off might actually be an additional negative.

There appears to be no enthusiasm right now, and if Tennessee gets off to another bad start on Saturday, that massive crowd is going to turn on them in a big way.

South Carolina did everything right last week against Arkansas and I have to figure their mental state is vastly superior here. I’ll take the FG with the Gamecocks.

[New York Knight]

Doc's Sports

NHL Chicago -150

Great situational spot to play the Blackhawks on Saturday as they host the Predators - the team that swept them in the first round of the playoffs last season. The Hawks were left with a terrible taste in their mouths after that series, and today's game was surely circled on the calendar. The Hawks retooled their roster in the off-season, and I really like the fact that they brought back Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp. Those two guys fit perfectly with this team, and they never should have let them go in the first place. The Predators had some key losses over the summer, including the retirement of Mike Fisher. And people forget, while the Preds did make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, they barely made it into the postseason in the first place. As a result, I think they are a bit overrated heading into this season.

[New York Knight]

Robert Ferringo

Kansas +21

This Big 12 game looks to be a quintessential letdown spot for the Cyclones. They pulled a stunning upset last week over the Sooners, winning on the road as a 31-point underdog. Now they have to turn around and dress up as a three-touchdown favorite against a pathetic Kansas squad. Iowa State only beat the Jayhawks by a touchdown last year, and the underdog has been solid in this series, going 6-3 ATS the last nine times they faced off. Iowa State is on a 4-1 ATS run and Kansas on a 1-4 ATS slide, so it is easy to see which side the public is going to back. But this spread has slowly crept down since its open. I do think that Iowa State is going to rack up another win here and keep building momentum. But I think that Kansas will be able to do enough in garbage time to sneak in the back door.