Saturday 10-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

JOSEPH D'AMICO

Saturday's FREE NCAAF Winner: Texas

After LW's,38-31 shocking loss to Iowa State, it isn't Oklahoma atop the BIG 12 standings, but Texas along with TCU at 2-0 in Conference play. The Longhorns covered the L4 in this series and come into Saturday's matchup riding a 4-game cover streak, while the Sooners have failed to get bettors paid their L2 outings. The OU defense has been a doormat, allowing Baylor and ISU to put up a combined, 72 points the last few contests. Texas QB, Sam Ehlinger can and will pick apart an Oklahoma secondary ranking 98th vs. the pass. No way should the Sooners be a DD favorite as they are 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games played in Texas and 1-6 ATS their L7 games played on neutral sites. The Longhorns are 5-1-1 ATS their L7 games played vs. teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS their L5 neutral site games. Take the points with Texas. Thank you.

[New York Knight]

BOBBY WING

1 Unit Free Pick: New Mexico State vs Georgia Southern over 57½ -110

[New York Knight]

CAPPERS ACCESS

CFB

Indiana
Auburn
Texas A&M
Minnesota

[New York Knight]

Randy Chambers

STANFORD

[New York Knight]

Andrew Jett

WASH HUSKIES

[New York Knight]

Chris Ruffolo

SAN DIEGO ST

[New York Knight]

Mark Roberts

NEW MEXICO/FRESNO OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #9 - BELMONT PARK - 5:19 PM EASTERN POST
The Pebbles Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#3 THAIS
#2 RUBILINDA
#4 PARTY BOAT
#1 ADORABLE MISS

For your information folks ... The Pebbles is named after Sheikh Mohammed Al Maktoum's champion grass mare Pebbles. This chestnut mare won the 1985 Breeders' Cup Turf at Aqueduct as a 4-year-old. Also at the age of 4, she was voted the Champion Grass Mare in the United States, and Champion Older Mare and Champion Miler in England. Here in the 25th renewal of this stakes test, #3 THAIS, a French-bred entry, is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field racing at the mile on the turf, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in five straight, hitting the board in four of those outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 2nd race back. #2 RUBILINDA, the morning line favorite, has hit the board in each of her three career starts to date, winning twice, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - SO - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $14300 Class Rating: 93

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2016 - 2017 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 FINANCIAL FREEDOM 8/5

# 1 MASTERKEY 9/5

# 3 TRUMPET MAN 7/2

My pick in this competition is FINANCIAL FREEDOM. Is hard not to examine based on speed figures which have been respectable - 87 avg - of late. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Loaiza running at this distance are the best in this field. Has been running soundly lately and will almost certainly be up near the lead early on. MASTERKEY - This gelding must be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt route races alone. Should keep the strong string of finishes intact this time around. TRUMPET MAN - I can't pass on this gelding given one of the most favorable jock and trainer combos on the grounds. He has garnered respectable numbers under today's conditions and will most likely fare well versus this field.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 3:38pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 80

Rating: 3

#5 SHADOW VALLEY (ML=4/1)
#3 SEATTLE TRAIN (ML=5/1)
#6 CHOSEN FACTS (ML=9/2)


SHADOW VALLEY - The jock and trainer combination have a beneficial return on investment when they combine forces. As the only front running sort in the race, I expect this mare to be long gone. SEATTLE TRAIN - She has the uppermost earnings per race. Check out this animal. Looking like an overlay right here at morning line odds of 5/1. Finished fifth in last race at Arlington but was close at the finish line. Recent speed figs show solid pattern of improvement. Should do well today. Weight shift of -8 from September 4th race at Arlington. CHOSEN FACTS - Coming off a seventh place finish at Arlington, some may pass on this horse. I'm not. She just missed hitting the show spot, and has decent morning line odds today. The Brain taught me this angle. Watch for horses that show good speed, drop back, then run evenly with a stretch run. Faced tougher last race out at Arlington. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this one on my list of probable winners in this race. This mare's last speed rating earned on September 16th is at the top in last race Equibase speed figures.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SPERLING (ML=7/5), #7 LET'S SKIP FIJI (ML=8/1),

SPERLING - Pace makes the race and the lack of pace means this closer will have to rally without any help. I'd like to see more preferred recent efforts with morning line odds of 7/5. LET'S SKIP FIJI - This mare probably needs a better pace configuration to make her closing move. Earned a run-of-the-mill speed figure last time around the track in a $5,000 Claiming race on September 14th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 SHADOW VALLEY to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Meadowlands

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $16500 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $10,500 1 LB.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 12 KEEPINGITQUIET 9/2

# 7 WESTERN EXCHANGE 6/1

# 11 GIRINE 4/1

I think about KEEPINGITQUIET here. He has respectable class ratings, averaging 93, and has to be carefully examined in here. He has earned formidable figs under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group. This colt has a very good winning percentage in turf route races. WESTERN EXCHANGE - He must be considered given the very strong speed figs. Conditioner boasts solid win figs at this distance and surface. GIRINE - Has to be considered here if only for the decent speed figure earned in the last race.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Retama Park

Retama Park - Race 2

Exacta / Trifecta (.10 Cent Minimum) / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Double (Races 2-3)(12% Takeout) Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)(12% Takeout)(.50 Cent Minimum)


Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $5,000 • Post: 7:12P
(PLUS UP TO $650 OPEN ATB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE AUGUST 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). TEXAS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. PAZMEIFUCAN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PAZMEIFUCAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MONEYMAN JOHN: Today is a spri nt and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DUCA'S BLING: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating.
4
PAZMEIFUCAN
2/1

5/2
5
MONEYMAN JOHN
3/1

6/1
1
DUCA'S BLING
12/1

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 2:10pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 56

Rating: 4

#2 A PRETTY HANSEN (ML=3/1)


A PRETTY HANSEN - Dropping in Equibase class figure points from her September 9th race at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbre. Based on that element, I will give this animal the edge. The recent bullet 102.4 work should put this filly on track for today's race. Expect better today as this filly gets Lasix for the 2nd time. She has the topmost EPS (earnings per start). Check out this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 THUNDERTAP (ML=7/2), #5 MAYBE NICELY (ML=9/2), #1 DANGEROUS WEAPON (ML=6/1),

THUNDERTAP - A strong thoroughbred that's been running well, but she's been off the track in the mornings of late. No success for this pony in a short distance contest over the last 60 days tells me that this filly is in a tough spot MAYBE NICELY - Looked like she was in good form on September 21st. Hasn't been near the track since then though. Not a positive sign. DANGEROUS WEAPON - Improbable that the speed rating she registered on September 27th will hold up in this event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - A PRETTY HANSEN - This filly has the top speed figure last race with a very good 67. She is the top gamble here.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 A PRETTY HANSEN to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
2 with [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 12

Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Second Half of Late Double


Maiden • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 77 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 4:35P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST THREE STARTS ARE LEAST PREFERRED.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JESS ZOOMN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed R ating. VALIANT MOJO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JESSTELL CARTEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top th ree in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY COUNTRY WAGON: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/sur face.
2
JESS ZOOMN
6/1

5/1
7
VALIANT MOJO
7/2

5/1
4
JESSTELL CARTEL
6/1

7/1
1
MY COUNTRY WAGON
5/1

9/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: New York Yankees (95-74) at Houston Astros (105-62)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, October 14 - 4:00 PM EST
WHERE: Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A

Playoff Series:

League Championship; Houston leads 1-0

Preview: Yankees at Astros

Gracenote
Oct 14, 2017

The Houston Astros won a pitchers' duel to open the American League Championship Series and will turn to their hottest arm in Game 2 of the best-of-seven set against the visiting New York Yankees on Saturday. Dallas Keuchel continued his career-long dominance of the Yankees with 10 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings in Friday's 2-1 victory in Game 1.

Jose Altuve recorded three hits, stole a base and scored a run as he improved to 11-for-19 with four walks this postseason. Including the playoffs, Justin Verlander is 7-0 with a 1.48 ERA in seven games (six starts) since being acquired from Detroit and is 4-0 with a 2.82 mark in his career at Minute Maid Park as he enters his Game 2 start. Verlander never has faced young sluggers Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Greg Bird, whose solo blast with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning accounted for all of New York's offense on Friday. The Yankees will turn to ace Luis Severino, who bounced back from a brutal start in the wild-card game to stymie Cleveland over seven frames on Monday in the AL Division Series.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, FOX

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Luis Severino (1-0, 7.36 ERA) vs. Astros RH Justin Verlander (2-0, 3.12)

Severino allowed three runs and four hits - two homers - while striking out nine Indians in his Game 3 victory, which helped turn the tide in that series. He was hit hard in two regular-season meetings with the Astros, allowing nine runs and 15 hits in 11 2/3 frames, and has had his issues with Carlos Correa (3-for-4, two doubles and two walks), Yuli Gurriel (4-for-5, one double) and Marwin Gonzalez (2-for-5, one home run). The 23-year-old posted a 0.89 ERA over his last six road starts during the regular season and finished 6-1 with a 2.24 ERA away from home.

Verlander has won each of his two outings this postseason, including 2 2/3-inning relief appearance in the decisive Game 4 win over Boston in the ALDS. The 34-year-old has posted a 3.55 ERA in five career starts in the ALCS, including an eight-inning outing in which he allowed one run and struck out 10 in his last such outing against the Red Sox in 2013. Verlander will be wary of Todd Frazier (5-for-17, two homers) and Didi Gregorius (2-for-6, one homer, one double), but he should go right after Aaron Hicks (0-for-9, four strikeouts).

WALK-OFFS

1. Bird has belted three home runs in a five-game stretch.

2. Correa has hit safely in his last four contests while producing seven RBIs and scoring three runs.

3. The Yankees have struck out 79 times in their last six games.

PREDICTION: Astros 3, Yankees 2