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Saturday 9-30-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Saturday's Week 5 NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds
(17) South Florida Bulls at East Carolina Pirates (+21, 75)
* The Bulls have scored 30 or more points in 21 consecutive games, the fourth-longest streak all-time. USF & Alabama are the only two teams in Division I to rank in top 10 in rushing yards and rushing defense.
* The Pirates rank dead last in Division I in scoring defense (48 points per game), total defense (624.8 yards per game) and pass efficiency against (192.2). Redshirt senior Thomas Sirk ranks eighth among active QBs in rushing touchdowns (16).
LINE HISTORY: The Bulls opened this matchup as about a 24-point road favorite at most books, but despite a 4-0 SU record they haven't been a good bet this season and bettors have faded them down to -21. The total opened at a sky high 74 and bettors hammered the Over, moving the number as high as 80.5, before coming back down to the current number of 75.
TRENDS:
* USF is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* ECU is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games.
* Over is 9-2 in ECU's last 11 games in September.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Northwestern Wildcats at (10) Wisconsin Badgers (-14.5, 49)
* The Wildcats are 18-4 when RB Justin Jackson rushes for 100 or more yards. The Northwestern defense is allowing opponents to convert 47.2 percent of their third-down opportunities, the 18th-worst mark in Division I.
* The Badgers are allowing an average of 10 points per game - fourth-best in the nation - and have yet to surrender a point in the second half so far this season. Wisconsin is 26-7 against Big Ten foes over the past five seasons.
LINE HISTORY: This line has mostly held steady at the opening number of Badgers -14.5. It's the total that has seen more action. Since opening at 51, the number has been bet down to the current number of 49.
TRENDS:
* Wisconsin is 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games following a bye week.
* Northwestern is 1-4 ATS in its last five meetings in Wisconsin.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Wisconsin's last four conference games.
Vanderbilt Commodores at (20) Florida Gators (-9, 40.5)
* The Commodores average 87.5 rushing yards per game, ranking them 121st out of 129 Division I teams. But Vanderbilt's defense has held teams to seven red-zone scores in 11 trips - the 13th-best rate in the nation.
* Down nine players suspended prior to the season, the depleted Gators rank 89th in pass offense (200.7 yards per game), 101st in rushing (121.7) and 76th in points allowed (26.7). Florida also sits 97th in third-down conversion rate (34.1 percent).
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Gators as 9.5-point home favorites and were bet as high as -10, but have since come down to the current number of Florida -9. The total opened at 42 and has been bet down a point and a half to the current number of 40.5.
TRENDS:
* Florida is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games.
* Vanderbilt is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 meetings in Florida.
* Under is 13-3-1 in Vanderbilt's last 17 road games.
* Over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings.
(8) Georgia Bulldogs at Tennessee Volunteers (+7.5, 47)
* Injured Bulldogs QB Jacob Eason (knee) has been working with the second-team offense, but his status for the weekend hasn't yet been determined. Georgia has scored on all 13 trips to the red zone in 2017, with 10 of those drives ending in touchdowns.
* The Volunteers have given up scores on all but one of opponents' 11 red-zone visits so far this season, ranking them outside the top 100 nationally. DT Shy Tuttle is expected to start Saturday despite suffering an orbital bone injury last weekend.
LINE HISTORY: Georgia opened this SEC showdown favored by a converted touchdown on the road and have been bet up slightly to the current number of Georgia -7.5. The total has been bet down slightly, moving from 48 to 47.
TRENDS:
* Georgia is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in Georgia's last five conference games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
Indiana Hoosiers at (4) Penn State Nittany Lions (-18, 63)
* Hoosiers CB A’Shon Riggins, S Marcelino Ball and DT Nate Hoff are all considered questionable for Saturday after suffering injuries last week. Indiana is inside the top 50 in passing yards per game but its 11.1 yards per completion ranks 96th.
* The Nittany Lions come in with a plus-6 turnover differential on the season, tied for the fifth-best total in Division I. Penn State's 10.3 tackles for loss per game is the best rate in the nation, and it ranks tied for 18th in sacks per contest (3.0).
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Nittany Lions as big 17.5-point home favorites over the Hoosiers and that number has moved up just a bit to the current number of Penn State -18. The total has seen plenty of movement however. The number opened around 61 and climbed as high as 69.5 at some books, before dropping back down drastically to the current number of 63.
TRENDS:
* Indiana is 0-5 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Penn State is 7-0-2 ATS in its last nine home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Indiana's last seven road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Penn State's last six games following a ATS loss.
(25) Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+7.5, 47.5)
* Seminoles receiving leader Auden Tate is considered day-to-day with a shoulder injury suffered in the second half of last week's game against N.C. State. Florida State is averaging a paltry 2.7 YPC with zero rushing touchdowns through two games.
* The Demon Deacons offense has turned the ball over just once, tied with Miami, Virginia and LSU for the second-fewest turnovers in the nation. Wake Forest is holding foes to a 31.4 percent conversion rate on third downs, ranking 40th in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: The Seminoles hit the board at most books as 7.5-point road favorites and that's where the number currently sits. The total opened at 47 and has bounced back-and-forth between that and 48. It is currently at 47.5.
TRENDS:
* FSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a ATS loss.
* Wake Forest is 6-1 ATS in its last seven conference games.
* Under is 8-2 in FSU's last 10 road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wake Forest's last six home games.
(24) Mississippi State Bulldogs at (15) Auburn Tigers (-9, 51)
* The Bulldogs are one of only three Power 5 teams to surrender one sack or fewer so far this season, joining Minnesota and Iowa State. MSU also has yet to lose a fumble in 2017, the only team in the SEC to have that distinction.
* The Tigers are limiting opponents to 236.3 yards per game, the fourth-best average in Division I. RBs Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson are expected to play this week, marking the first time this season they'll appear in the same game."
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened this matchup with the Tigers as 9.5-point home favorites and they moved the number to Auburn -10, before coming down to the current number of -9. The total opened around 49 and reached as high as 53 before coming back down to the current number of 51.
TRENDS:
* Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in Mississippi State's last seven games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Troy Trojans at (22) Louisiana State Tigers (-20.5, 48.5)
* The Trojans have surrendered just two rushing touchdowns in 2017 while holding opponents to 95.5 yards per game on the ground, the 14th-best rate in the nation. QB Brandon Silvers has thrown for multiple TDs just once in his last nine games.
* Tigers RB Derrius Guice (knee) is considered questionable for this weekend; it's the same designation he had last week, when he played but finished just 14 yards on eight carries. LSU has allowed foes to score on nine of 10 red-zone trips.
LINE HISTORY: LSU hit the board at most books as 19.5-point favorites and rose as high as -21, before settling at the current number of -20.5. The total opened at 49 and is down slightly to 48.5.
TRENDS:
* Troy is 0-6 ATS in its last six games overall.
* LSU is 1-7-1 ATS in its last nine games in September.
* Over is 15-1 in Troy's last 16 vs. SEC opponents.
* Under is 6-1-2 in LSU's last nine games following a SU win.
(9) Ohio State Buckeyes at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (+29.5, 52)
* The Buckeyes rank first in the Big Ten and 13th in Division I with 319.2 passing yards per game. Head coach Urban Meyer says he will continue to roll with a six-man wide receiver rotation; Eight different wideouts have at least one touchdown catch.
* The Scarlet Knights rank last in the Big Ten in yards per play (4.8) and passing yards per game (163.5). Rutgers has held opponents to 19 conversions on 63 third-down opportunities; that 30.2-percent success rate ranks 28th in the nation.
LINE HISTORY: The Buckeyes opened as about hefty 29-point road chalk at most books and were briefly bet up to -30, before settling at the current number of Ohio State -29.5. The total opened around 51.5 and was bet up to 54m before coming back down to 52.5.
TRENDS:
* Ohio State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games overall.
* Rutgers is 5-1 ATS in their last six games in September.
* Over is 4-1 in Ohio State's last five conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Rutgers' last seven games overall.
(14) Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+10, 84,5)
* Cowboys QB Mason Rudolph has 300 or more passing yards and multiple touchdowns in five consecutive starts dating back to last season. Oklahoma State is outscoring opponents 66-6 in the first quarter.
* The Red Raiders rank second in the nation in passing yards per game (437.7) while completing nearly 75 percent of their attempts as a team. Texas Tech's plus-7 turnover margin is tied for fourth in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: The Pokes opened as about 11-point road faves for this Big 12 matchup and after last week's poor showing, bettors faded them down to -8. But they have since bounced back to Oklahoma State -10. The total hit the board at a massive 81 and bettors still didn't think that was enough, moving the number up to 84.5.
TRENDS:
* Oklahoma State is 5-0 ATS in its last five games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Over is 6-1 in Texas Tech's last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
(6) Washington Huskies at Oregon State Beavers (+26.5, 59.5)
* The Huskies rank tied for sixth in Division I in turnover margin (plus-6), 10th in scoring defense (11.8 points per game) and 11th in scoring (44.5 ppg). Washington runs just 59.3 plays per game, fewest in the Pac-12.
* Beavers RB Ryan Nall is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry at home compared to 7.8 YPC on the road. Oregon State has scored on all nine of its trips to the red zone, one of 17 Divison I teams with a perfect record there.
LINE HISTORY: The Huskies opened as 26.5-point road favorites and there has been very little movement off that number. The total hit the board at 63 and it's been all Under money since, with number coming down to 59.5.
TRENDS:
* Washington is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
* Oregon State is 0-4 ATS in its last four games overall.
* Over is 8-1 in Oregon State's last nine games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings in Oregon State.
Mississippi Rebels at (1) Alabama Crimson Tide (-27, 58)
* WR A.J. Brown and DE Victor Evans returned to practice and are expected to play, while C Sean Rawlings is also hopeful to return despite not practicing Wednesday. Ole Miss averages a paltry 2.8 yards per carry with just two rushing touchdowns to date.
* The Crimson Tide rank fifth in the nation in rushing yards (303.3). Alabama has surrendered just one rushing touchdown on the season while limiting opponents to 70.3 rushing yards per game, fifth-fewest in Division I.
LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the No. 1 team in the country as big 28-point home chalk for this SEC matchup and they have been bet down slightly to the current number of Alabama -27. The total opened at 59 and is down to 58.
TRENDS:
* Ole Miss is 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall.
* Alabama is 7-1 ATS in its last eight conference games.
* Over is 4-1 in Ole Miss' last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Alabama.
Northern Illinois Huskies at (21) San Diego State Aztecs (-10, 49)
* The Huskies average just over 26 minutes per game in time of possession, the 19th-lowest average in the nation. DE Sutton Smith leads Division I in tackles for loss (9.5) and also has three sacks and a fumble recovery.
* RB Rashaad Penny ranks second in the country in rushing yards per game (179), all-purpose yards per game (230) and total touchdowns (nine). San Diego State averages just 169.3 passing yards per contest, 110th nationally.
LINE HISTORY: The Aztecs hit the board as around 2.5-point home favorites at most books, but since then have moved down to the current number of San Diego State -10. The total opened at 44.5 and bettors love the over, moving the number all the way up to 49.
TRENDS:
* Northern Illinois is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.
* San Diego State is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a ATS win.
* Under is 7-1 in Northern Illinois last eight games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in San Diego State's last six games following a ATS win.
Saturday's NCAAF Game of the Day: Clemson at Virginia Tech
Clemson Tigers at Virginia Tech Hokies (+7, 50.5)
Defending national champion Clemson has passed a few early tests already but will face their biggest one yet on Saturday. The second-ranked Tigers put their school-record 11-game road winning streak on the line when they visit No. 12 Virginia Tech in an ACC showdown between unbeaten teams.
Virginia Tech coach Justin Fuente knows his team’s margin for error is next to nothing against the Tigers, who are explosive on offense and dominant on defense.
"It's like defusing a bomb,” Fuente told reporters. “Like one small snip of the wire that's incorrect and, 'Boom!' You blow your hands off. That's how talented and how good they are."
Clemson already has beaten two ranked opponents, holding off Auburn in a defensive struggle and routing Louisville on the road, and pulled away in the fourth quarter of a 34-7 win over Boston College last week. The Hokies survived a tough test in a 31-24 win over West Virginia to open the season but have coasted past inferior competition over the last three weeks.
TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, ABC.
LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the road team favored by 6.5 points and was bet all the way up to 8 but appears to be settling at the key number 7. The total opened at 51.5 but has been bet down to 50.5 at most shops.
INJURY REPORT:
Clemson - TE Garrett Williams (doubtful, knee), CB Marcus Edward (doubtful, foot), RB Adam Choice (probable, ankle), CB Mark Fields (probable, gluteus).
Virginia Tech - RB Steven Peoples (questionable, ankle), DB Divine Deablo (questionable, foot), CB Adonis Alexander (questionable, disciplinary)
ABOUT CLEMSON (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U): The Tigers boast one of the nation’s best defenses, ranking third nationally in total defense (227 yards per game) and scoring defense (9.2 points) despite a challenging early schedule. The offense has been remarkably consistent as well, considering all Clemson lost at the skill positions. Quarterback Kelly Bryant has been terrific, passing for 873 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions while rushing for 268 yards and seven scores, and freshman running back Travis Etienne (292 yards, four TDs) averages 12.7 yards per carry.
ABOUT VIRGINIA TECH (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-2-1 O/U): The Hokies have long been regarded for their stellar defense and special-teams work, but they’re putting up huge offensive numbers so far this season. Redshirt freshman quarterback Josh Jackson has been superb, completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,127 yards with 11 touchdowns and one interception, albeit against weak competition. Jackson has a tremendous weapon in receiver Cam Phillips, who has recorded 34 receptions for 523 yards and five touchdowns through four contests.
TRENDS:
*Clemson is 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.
*Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.
*The Over is 6-0 in Clemson's last six road games.
*The Under is 18-8 in Virginia Tech's last 26 conference games.
CONSENSUS: The road favorite Tigers are getting 56 percent of the action from users and the Over is the popular choice with a 52 percent pick rate.
Saturday's NCAAF Week 5 action report: Bettors riding with road faves, but action is light
Patrick Everson
September closes out with a college football Saturday, highlighted by a prime-time showdown in the Atlantic Coast Conference. We check in on the action with Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading for William Hill US, which operates more than 100 sportsbooks throughout Nevada.
No. 2 Clemson Tigers at No. 12 Virginia Tech Hokies – Open: +7.5; Move: +7; Move: +7.5
Defending national champion Clemson has won nine in a row SU (6-3 ATS) dating to last season. The Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) had a lot of trouble with Boston College in Week 4, in a game tied at 7 through three quarters, but Dabo Swinney’s troops racked up four fourth-quarter touchdowns to win 34-7 as a 33.5-point home favorite.
Virginia Tech is also out of the gate 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS, though this will mark its toughest game by far, having previously faced West Virginia, Delaware, East Carolina and Old Dominion. In Week 4 against ODU, the Hokies breezed to a 38-0 victory as a 28.5-point chalk.
“Virginia Tech, we’re getting three times more money on account, so the sharp money is on Virginia Tech,” Bernanke said of action on this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. “But over the counter, we’re seeing all public money on Clemson. This game’s gonna a be a big test for Virginia Tech, to see if they’re for real, and Clemson, they’ve become everyone’s darlings since winning the national championship. They’re one of our top five public teams now.”
The line opened Clemson -7.5 at CG Technology books, including The Cosmopolitan and the Venetian on the Vegas Strip. That sharp VaTech action forced a cup of coffee at 7 on Wednesday before the line quickly returned to 7.5.
“This line I anticipate gets to 8 the day of game,” Bernanke said of expectations for today at CG Technology books, including The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. “We’ll see an influx of public money on Clemson.”
William Hill opened the Tigers -7 and has been at 7.5 since Wednesday on lower-than-anticipated action.
“We’re a little high on Clemson money, but very disappointing handle on this game right now. It’s very light,” Bogdanovich said.
Georgia turned what was expected to be an early SEC showdown into a blowout victory last week. The Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) gave almost nothing to previously unbeaten upstart Mississippi State in a 31-3 victory as a 2.5-point home fave.
Tennessee (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) barely escaped what would have been a hugely embarrassing loss in Week 4. The Volunteers held on for an uninspired 17-13 win over Massachusetts as a heavy 28-point home chalk.
“Tennessee last week looked terrible,” said Bernanke, who then alluded to the line on this game when it was first put up months ago as one of CG’s Games of the Year. “The look-ahead line on this game was Tennessee -1, if you can believe it. Right now, we’re getting all Georgia money across the board. We can’t get a Tennessee ticket right now. Georgia’s dismantling of Mississippi State, everyone noticed that, and it’s certainly showing up at the betting windows.”
The Bulldogs and Vols kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders – Open: +8.5; Move: +9; Move: +10; Move: +9.5; Move: +10
Oklahoma State was another early season darling, particularly with public bettors, but the bottom fell out in Week 4. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) laid an egg at home against a top-20 Texas Christian unit, losing 44-31 giving 9 points.
Texas Tech (3-0 SU and ATS) is coming off an upset road victory. The Red Raiders topped Houston 27-24 as a 7-point underdog and will be an even larger pup for this Big 12 showdown.
“Again, very little betting so far,” Bogdanovich lamented of action for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff. “We’re just a little high on Oklahoma State. I think there’s a little sharp money there, but disappointing handle on this game, to say the least.”
CG opened the Pokes -8.5 and got as high as 11 before falling back to 10.5 on Friday.
“We’re seeing all sharp money and public money on Oklahoma State,” said Bernanke, who was more intrigued by the total of 84, the highest this year in college football. “Right now, all I’ve seen is over money.”
Last week, Auburn (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) won and cashed in the same game for the first time this season, and in quite convincing fashion. The Tigers boatraced Missouri 51-14 laying 18.5 points on the road.
Meanwhile, Mississippi State (3-1 SU and ATS) got the aforementioned reality check at Georgia, losing 31-3 as a 2.5-point ‘dog. Yet this line has been ticking down since topping out at Auburn -10 on Tuesday, with kickoff set for 6 p.m. ET.
“There’s been some sharp money for Mississippi State, but no great shakes,” Bogdanovich said. “It’s just very light handle all around this week. I don’t know why. I guess all the bettors got broke last week.”
Perhaps last Sunday’s NFL action played a part, as underdogs went 11-5 ATS and the sportsbooks had a field day.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans – Open: -3.5; Move: -3; Move: -4.5; Move: -4
Iowa had an outstanding chance to pull an upset over Penn State, scoring a touchdown inside the final two minutes to take a 19-15 lead at home last week. But the Hawkeyes (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) couldn’t make it hold up, losing on a touchdown on the last play of the game, 21-19 as a 13-point underdog.
Michigan State (2-1 SU and ATS) was dealt its first setback of the season in Week 4, tumbling to Notre Dame 38-18 catching 3 points at home.
“Pretty good two-way action so far, and I think it’ll continue to be pretty good two-way,” Bogdanovich said of activity for this 4 p.m. ET start. “Iowa played pretty good last week.”
Other games seeing notable movement/action:
• South Florida at East Carolina: ECU’s three losses came by a combined score of 154-51, and even in the Pirates’ lone win last week, they allowed 38 points to Connecticut in a 41-38 road win getting 5 points. Yet they’re seeing some money against No. 17 South Florida, moving the line from 24 to 21 for this noon ET start. “Just some sharp money for the ‘dog. So good luck with that,” Bogdanovich joked.
• Navy at Tulsa: The Midshipmen opened -4.5 and were bet up to 7.5 in a 3:30 p.m. ET contest. “That’s sharp money on Navy. Tulsa had a pitiful performance against New Mexico.” Indeed, the Golden Hurricane were 10-point home favorites and lost outright, 16-13.
• Colorado at UCLA: The Bruins have gone from -6.5 to -7.5. “Early money was probably sharp money. They laid the 6.5 and the 7.” It’s a late kickoff, at 10:30 p.m. ET.
• Central Michigan at Boston College: The Eagles are up to 10.5-point chalk, after opening at 7.5 at William Hill books for this 1 p.m. ET meeting. “That’s definitely sharp money for Boston College.”
• San Jose State at UNLV: The Rebels opened -12 at William Hill and now find themselves 14-point faves for this 10:30 p.m. matchup. “I’m assuming it’s sharp money. They laid 12 and 13. We’re high on the Rebels.”
A'lot of shifting late in this line and we have seen this thing move down pretty fast. UMass is 0-5 but they have been very tough in their last 2 games on the road giving Temple a run for their money then almost knocking off a very good Tennessee team that was looking to their big game against Georgia this week. Love the points and UMass at home today. Ohio is off a thriller 2 overtime win over a division rival and next week they play a much better CMU team. I think UMass pulls off the upset but I will take the points here for a 9 unit investment.
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach Free Pick CFB Game #135/136 Saturday OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Houston Cougars @ Noon ET - While it looks like the Cougars much have played good defense last weekend since they held the dangerous Red Raiders offense to just 27 points, the fact is that Texas Tech put up over 500 yards on the Houston defense. As you can see, it was a bit of a statistical anomaly that more points weren't scored in that game because the Cougars also were held to 24 points despite their offense totaling over 400 yards! This has created line value this week because Houston has seen the under go 3-0 in their games so far this season but I feel the breakout game is coming here. It is amazing that the Cougars have had all unders when you consider they're averaging 431.3 yards of offense per game. By the way, Temple has also been an "under team" this season as 3 of their 4 games have stayed under the total despite the fact that the Owls have allowed 468.5 yards per game on defense! I am going to step in and take advantage of the low total here. The Cougars are a long-term 3-1 to the over in road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. The Owls series with the Cougars has featured 3 straight unders but I look for that to change here as Temple's offense did move the ball quite well in their first 3 games before getting shutdown by South Florida. Couple that with the fact that the Owls defense has struggled badly this season and you have the recipe for an over here. Free Pick on OVER the total in Temple EARLY Saturday. Best of luck, Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach
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