Saturday 9-30-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: Milwaukee Brewers (85-75) at St. Louis Cardinals (82-78)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, September 30 - 4:15 PM EST
WHERE: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, Missouri
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Preview: Brewers at Cardinals

Gracenote
Sep 30, 2017

The Milwaukee Brewers have no margin for error and also need a little bit of help as they enter Saturday's contest against the host St. Louis Cardinals. The Brewers stand two games behind Colorado for the National League's second wild-card spot with two contests left to play and will be eliminated by their next loss or the Rockies next victory.

Catcher Stephen Vogt homered and had three RBIs in Friday's 5-3 victory as Milwaukee remained alive in the postseason race while winning for the fourth time in the past six games. The Brewers, who last qualified for the postseason in 2011, are 10-7 against the Cardinals this season. While Milwaukee hopes for the Rockies to drop two games, the Cardinals were eliminated from contention on Wednesday and aren't part of the postseason for the second straight year following five consecutive appearances. St. Louis rookie shortstop Paul DeJong continued his strong campaign with his 25th homer in Friday's loss.

TV: 4:15 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Brewers RH Junior Guerra (1-4, 4.90 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Luke Weaver (7-2, 3.23)

Guerra makes his first start since July 29 as Milwaukee continues using different hurlers to plug the rotation gap caused by a season-ending injury to Jimmy Nelson. The 32-year-old has made 13 starts but isn't stretched out as he hasn't pitched more than one inning in a game in seven September appearances. "We certainly don’t expect a normal 90-100 pitches from him," Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters. “I think he’s capable of it but I don’t expect that to happen."

Weaver has pitched well in two victories against the Brewers, compiling a 3.00 ERA with 18 strikeouts in 12 innings. The 24-year-old won seven consecutive decisions before getting pounded by the Chicago Cubs for eight runs and seven hits over three innings in his last turn. Weaver has fanned 68 batters and walked just 13 in 55 2/3 innings.

WALK-OFFS

1. Brewers LF Ryan Braun is just 1-for-16 over the past four games and is homerless in his last 10 contests.

2. St. Louis Kolten Wong (back), who is in a 4-for-32 funk, sat out his fourth straight game and is likely done for the season.

3. Milwaukee C Manny Pina (thumb) will miss the final two games and last played on Sept. 21.

PREDICTION: Cardinals 5, Brewers 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Milwaukee at St. Louis

W/L Trends

Milwaukee

Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Brewers are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Brewers are 10-1 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Brewers are 8-2 in their last 10 road games. Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Brewers are 6-2 in their last 8 Saturday games. Brewers are 11-4 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 during game 2 of a series. Brewers are 38-81 in their last 119 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Brewers are 5-2 in Guerras last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record. Brewers are 2-5 in Guerras last 7 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Brewers are 1-4 in Guerras last 5 road starts. Brewers are 1-5 in Guerras last 6 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Brewers are 1-5 in Guerras last 6 starts. Brewers are 1-5 in Guerras last 6 starts on grass. Brewers are 0-4 in Guerras last 4 starts during game 2 of a series.

St. Louis

Cardinals are 19-7 in their last 26 during game 2 of a series. Cardinals are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a loss. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Cardinals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games. Cardinals are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 overall. Cardinals are 1-6 in their last 7 games on grass. Cardinals are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. Cardinals are 7-1 in Weavers last 8 starts. Cardinals are 7-1 in Weavers last 8 starts on grass. Cardinals are 6-1 in Weavers last 7 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Cardinals are 5-1 in Weavers last 6 starts vs. National League Central. Cardinals are 4-1 in Weavers last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. Cardinals are 2-5 in Weavers last 7 starts with 4 days of rest.

OU Trends

Milwaukee

Under is 7-1 in Brewers last 8 vs. National League Central. Under is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Under is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 during game 2 of a series. Under is 41-12-2 in Brewers last 55 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 20-6 in Brewers last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 16-5 in Brewers last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 9-3-1 in Brewers last 13 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 37-13-4 in Brewers last 54 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 28-10-1 in Brewers last 39 road games. Under is 47-18-3 in Brewers last 68 overall. Under is 23-9-2 in Brewers last 34 games following a win. Under is 10-4 in Brewers last 14 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 44-18-3 in Brewers last 65 on grass. Under is 37-17-1 in Brewers last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 9-0-1 in Guerras last 10 starts during game 2 of a series. Under is 9-1 in Guerras last 10 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Guerras last 5 starts vs. National League Central. Over is 4-1 in Guerras last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 12-4 in Guerras last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

St. Louis

Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 9-3 in Cardinals last 12 home games. Over is 8-3-1 in Cardinals last 12 during game 2 of a series. Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games following a loss. Under is 15-7-1 in Cardinals last 23 Saturday games. Over is 3-0-2 in Weavers last 5 starts during game 2 of a series. Under is 5-1-1 in Weavers last 7 home starts. Over is 4-1-1 in Weavers last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 3-1-1 in Weavers last 5 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Head to Head

Brewers are 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in St. Louis. Brewers are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.

Umpire Trends - Sam Holbrook

• Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Holbrook behind home plate.
• Under is 8-2-1 in Holbrooks last 11 Saturday games behind home plate.
• Under is 4-1 in Holbrooks last 5 games behind home plate vs. Milwaukee.
• Home team is 6-2 in Holbrooks last 8 games behind home plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: Baltimore Orioles (75-85) at Tampa Bay Rays (78-82)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, September 30 - 6:10 PM EST
WHERE: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Preview: Orioles at Rays

Gracenote
Sep 30, 2017

The Tampa Bay Rays attempt to lock up the season series when they host the stumbling Baltimore Orioles on Saturday night in the second of a three-game set that ends a disappointing campaign for both teams. Logan Morrison belted his 38th homer of the season Friday as the Rays routed the Orioles 7-0 for their ninth victory in 17 games against Baltimore, which is just 4-17 in its last 21 contests.

Tampa Bay assured itself of third place in the American League East with Friday’s triumph but is still 8-12 in the last 20 games while falling out of contention for the second wild-card spot. Chris Archer will try to earn his first victory this month and improve his numbers against the Orioles this season (1-2, 7.71 ERA) when he takes the mound Saturday against Miguel Castro. Baltimore dropped to 29-50 on the road with the setback and has been outscored 43-22 while losing five of its last six contests to fall into a tie for last place with Toronto in the AL East. Adam Jones, who is 8-for-20 in his last five games, missed Friday’s contest due to leg soreness, but rookie Trey Mancini went 1-for-3 in the loss to extend his career-high hitting streak to 17 games.

TV: 6:10 p.m. ET, MASN2 (Baltimore), FSN Sun (Tampa Bay)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Miguel Castro (3-2, 3.29 ERA) vs. Rays RH Chris Archer (9-12, 4.18)

Castro is scheduled to make his first major-league start after registering 75 career relief appearances, including 38 this season. The 22-year-old Dominican has given up at least a run in six consecutive outings, including last Friday when he surrendered one run on three hits over 2 1/3 innings. Morrison has gone deep against Castro, who owns a 2.00 ERA in five games against the Rays this season.

Archer looks to end a rough September on a high note after going 0-5 with a 9.72 ERA in five outings after giving up six runs over 3 2/3 innings at Baltimore on Sunday. The 29-year-old needs to complete four innings to reach 200 for the third straight season and is nine strikeouts shy of his career-high (252, 2015). Jonathan Schoop is 10-for-24 with three homers versus Archer, who is 4-8 lifetime against the Orioles.

WALK-OFFS

1. Baltimore SS Tim Beckham went 0-for-4 on Friday and aggravated a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the previous three games.

2. Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria also homered Friday to reach 20 for the ninth time in his first 10 seasons.

3. Schoop had a single and a walk Friday, improving to 19-for-62 with four homers and 11 RBIs against the Rays this year.

PREDICTION: Rays 5, Orioles 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Baltimore at Tampa Bay

W/L Trends

Baltimore

Orioles are 20-43 in their last 63 road games. Orioles are 16-37 in their last 53 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Orioles are 7-19 in their last 26 during game 2 of a series. Orioles are 7-20 in their last 27 overall. Orioles are 4-12 in their last 16 vs. American League East. Orioles are 4-12 in their last 16 games following a loss. Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Orioles are 5-16 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. Orioles are 3-10 in their last 13 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Orioles are 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Orioles are 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Orioles are 2-10 in their last 12 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 games on astroturf. Orioles are 1-5 in their last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Orioles are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Orioles are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games.

Tampa Bay

Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Rays are 11-5 in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Rays are 5-11 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series. Rays are 2-6 in their last 8 games following a win. Rays are 1-5 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 1-7 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 1-9 in their last 10 Saturday games. Rays are 7-3 in Archers last 10 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Rays are 7-19 in Archers last 26 starts vs. American League East. Rays are 7-22 in Archers last 29 starts with 5 days of rest. Rays are 1-4 in Archers last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Rays are 1-4 in Archers last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 1-6 in Archers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Rays are 0-5 in Archers last 5 starts.

OU Trends

Baltimore

Under is 5-0 in Orioles last 5 on astroturf. Under is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-1 in Orioles last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 15-3 in Orioles last 18 during game 2 of a series. Under is 21-6-2 in Orioles last 29 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 9-3 in Orioles last 12 vs. American League East. Over is 8-3 in Orioles last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 10-4 in Orioles last 14 overall. Over is 5-2 in Orioles last 7 road games. Under is 17-7 in Orioles last 24 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 19-9-2 in Orioles last 30 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Tampa Bay

Over is 5-1 in Rays last 6 Saturday games. Over is 12-3 in Rays last 15 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 on astroturf. Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 18-6 in Rays last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 5-2 in Rays last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Rays last 7 games following a win. Over is 15-6 in Rays last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 20-8 in Rays last 28 home games. Under is 11-5 in Rays last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 39-19-1 in Rays last 59 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 4-0 in Archers last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 4-0 in Archers last 4 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Archers last 6 Saturday starts. Under is 5-1 in Archers last 6 starts on astroturf. Over is 5-1 in Archers last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Archers last 6 home starts. Under is 4-1-1 in Archers last 6 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. Under is 4-1 in Archers last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Over is 12-4-5 in Archers last 21 starts during game 2 of a series. Over is 6-2 in Archers last 8 starts vs. American League East. Under is 8-3 in Archers last 11 starts with 5 days of rest. Over is 8-3 in Archers last 11 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Archers last 7 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

Head to Head

Over is 3-0-1 in Archers last 4 starts vs. Orioles. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay. Orioles are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings. Rays are 1-4 in Archers last 5 starts vs. Orioles.

Umpire Trends - Name unavailable

No trends available.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: Pittsburgh Pirates (73-87) at Washington Nationals (97-63)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, September 30 - 7:05 PM EST
WHERE: Nationals Park, Washington, District of Columbia
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Preview: Pirates at Nationals

Gracenote
Sep 30, 2017

Bryce Harper continues to be limited as he works his way back from an extended absence, but Ryan Zimmerman's ability to turn back the clock this season has the Washington Nationals on the brink of making history. Already boasting a career-high 36 homers after hitting two more Friday, the two-time All-Star first baseman takes aim at his personal-best RBI mark Saturday when the Nationals play the third of four games at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Washington manager Dusty Baker limited Harper to seven innings in Friday's 6-1 victory and the 2015 National League MVP, who has yet to play a full game since his return to action Tuesday, is showing the effects of his 41-game layoff while going 1-for-10 in three contests. While Harper will not start Saturday and likely won't do so before the playoffs according to Baker, Zimmerman is doing his best to carry the offense and did so Friday when he went 4-for-4 - all extra-base hits - and drove in four runs to bring his season total to 107 - three shy of his career high. The triumph also put the Nationals (97-63) within one win of matching the 2012 team for the best mark in club history. Starling Marte posted his fifth consecutive two-hit game for Pittsburgh, which has dropped seven in a row on the road to fall to 29-50 away from home.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, AT&T Sportsnet Pittsburgh, MASN (Washington)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Pirates RH Jameson Taillon (8-7, 4.62 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.55)

Taillon notched his first victory in seven tries since Aug. 11 in Sunday's win against St. Louis, yielding one run on a solo shot among the four hits he allowed over five innings. The second overall pick in the 2010 draft has failed to pitch more than five innings six times in his last seven outings, and he is 3-5 with a 6.47 ERA in 13 turns since the All-Star break. Taillon's only start versus the Nationals came as a rookie last year when he permitted three runs across five frames in a no-decision.

Scherzer won for the eighth time in his last nine decisions Sunday at the New York Mets, giving up only one run on a solo homer and three hits while fanning 10 over six innings. The five-time All-Star has struck out at least 10 in 15 of his 30 outings this season and ranks second in the majors with a NL-best 263. Marte is 4-for-12 and Andrew McCutchen is 4-for-23 with a homer and 12 strikeouts versus Scherzer, who is 4-2 with a 2.89 ERA in 10 games (nine starts) against the Pirates.

WALK-OFFS

1. Nationals 2B Daniel Murphy is 9-for-19 with four RBIs during a five-game hitting streak.

2. Marte is batting .472 during his 10-game hitting streak, one shy of SS Jordy Mercer for the longest such run by a Pirate this season.

3. Despite going 0-for-3 on Friday, Washington OF Michael Taylor is batting .329 with nine extra-base hits (five homers), 13 RBIs, four walks, five steals and eight runs scored over his last 20 games.

PREDICTION: Nationals 5, Pirates 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Pittsburgh at Washington

W/L Trends

Pittsburgh

Pirates are 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Pirates are 6-15 in their last 21 overall. Pirates are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pirates are 6-15 in their last 21 games on grass. Pirates are 9-24 in their last 33 vs. a team with a winning record. Pirates are 7-19 in their last 26 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pirates are 7-21 in their last 28 games following a loss. Pirates are 5-17 in their last 22 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Pirates are 6-23 in their last 29 road games. Pirates are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pirates are 4-0 in Taillons last 4 starts during game 3 of a series. Pirates are 5-0 in Taillons last 5 starts vs. National League East. Pirates are 4-1 in Taillons last 5 road starts. Pirates are 4-1 in Taillons last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Pirates are 14-6 in Taillons last 20 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Pirates are 1-4 in Taillons last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Washington

Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Nationals are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Nationals are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 overall. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass. Nationals are 12-5 in their last 17 vs. National League Central. Nationals are 14-6 in their last 20 during game 3 of a series. Nationals are 7-3 in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Nationals are 11-5 in their last 16 home games. Nationals are 49-23 in their last 72 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Nationals are 35-17 in their last 52 vs. a team with a losing record. Nationals are 5-0 in Scherzers last 5 starts vs. National League Central. Nationals are 7-1 in Scherzers last 8 home starts. Nationals are 6-1 in Scherzers last 7 Saturday starts. Nationals are 22-5 in Scherzers last 27 starts during game 3 of a series. Nationals are 4-1 in Scherzers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Nationals are 21-6 in Scherzers last 27 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Nationals are 21-6 in Scherzers last 27 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Nationals are 24-7 in Scherzers last 31 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Nationals are 25-9 in Scherzers last 34 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Nationals are 19-7 in Scherzers last 26 starts with 5 days of rest. Nationals are 26-10 in Scherzers last 36 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Nationals are 28-11 in Scherzers last 39 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Nationals are 39-16 in Scherzers last 55 starts. Nationals are 39-16 in Scherzers last 55 starts on grass.

OU Trends

Pittsburgh

Under is 5-0-2 in Pirates last 7 vs. National League East. Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 11-2 in Pirates last 13 Saturday games. Under is 4-1 in Pirates last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Under is 4-1-1 in Pirates last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 21-6-1 in Pirates last 28 road games. Under is 10-3 in Pirates last 13 games following a loss. Under is 10-3-1 in Pirates last 14 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 22-7-2 in Pirates last 31 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 25-8 in Pirates last 33 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 22-8-1 in Pirates last 31 on grass. Under is 18-7-1 in Pirates last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 5-2 in Pirates last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 5-2 in Pirates last 7 during game 3 of a series. Under is 41-17-2 in Pirates last 60 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 64-31-3 in Pirates last 98 overall. Under is 4-1 in Taillons last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. Under is 4-1 in Taillons last 5 starts on grass. Under is 4-1 in Taillons last 5 starts during game 3 of a series. Under is 4-1 in Taillons last 5 road starts. Under is 4-1 in Taillons last 5 starts overall. Under is 8-2-1 in Taillons last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 9-3-1 in Taillons last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Washington

Under is 4-0-2 in Nationals last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 3-0-1 in Nationals last 4 Saturday games. Under is 4-0-2 in Nationals last 6 vs. National League Central. Under is 5-1-1 in Nationals last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 12-3-3 in Nationals last 18 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 4-1-2 in Nationals last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-1-1 in Nationals last 6 home games. Under is 20-5-3 in Nationals last 28 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 18-6-2 in Nationals last 26 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 18-6-4 in Nationals last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 5-2-2 in Nationals last 9 during game 3 of a series. Under is 34-14-4 in Nationals last 52 games following a win. Under is 9-4-2 in Nationals last 15 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 30-14-7 in Nationals last 51 overall. Under is 30-14-7 in Nationals last 51 on grass. Under is 32-15-4 in Nationals last 51 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 34-16-2 in Nationals last 52 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 3-0-1 in Scherzers last 4 home starts. Over is 3-1-1 in Scherzers last 5 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 18-7-2 in Scherzers last 27 starts with 5 days of rest. Under is 5-2 in Scherzers last 7 Saturday starts. Over is 5-2-1 in Scherzers last 8 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Under is 5-2-1 in Scherzers last 8 starts during game 3 of a series. Over is 9-4-1 in Scherzers last 14 starts on grass. Over is 9-4-1 in Scherzers last 14 starts overall.

Head to Head

Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Washington. Pirates are 17-38 in the last 55 meetings in Washington. Pirates are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings.

Umpire Trends - Carlos Torres

• Under is 5-1 in Torres' last 6 Saturday games behind home plate.
• Over is 4-1-1 in Torres' last 6 games behind home plate vs. Washington.
• Under is 9-3 in Torres' last 12 games behind home plate.
• Road team is 7-3 in Torres' last 10 games behind home plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: New York Mets (69-91) at Philadelphia Phillies (65-95)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, September 30 - 7:05 PM EST
WHERE: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Preview: Mets at Phillies

Gracenote
Sep 30, 2017

The Philadelphia Phillies aim for their first four-game winning streak in two months when they continue a season-ending three-game series with the visiting New York Mets on Saturday. Home runs by three players and another solid outing by the bullpen helped the Phillies to a 6-2 win in Friday's series opener.

They've hit 101 home runs at home - their highest total since 2009 (108) - and are 22-16 at Citizens Bank Park since the All-Star break. The Mets had their own three-game winning streak snapped in the loss and need to win one of their final two games to avoid falling shy of 70 victories for the first time since 2003. Jacob deGrom was scheduled to take Saturday's start for New York, but a case of gastroenteritis has ended his season. Instead, Seth Lugo moves up a day to get the ball opposite Phillies right-hander Henderson Alvarez.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, WPIX (New York), CSN Philadelphia

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mets RH Seth Lugo (7-5, 4.72 ERA) vs. Phillies RH Henderson Alvarez (0-1, 3.60)

Lugo is coming off his best start of an otherwise difficult season, posting six scoreless innings and striking out seven to defeat Atlanta on Monday. It was the third time in the 27-year-old's last four starts that he has allowed one or zero runs. Lugo gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings at Philadelphia on Aug. 11 in a no-decision while striking out a career-high eight.

Alvarez allowed four runs in five innings in his first start with the Phillies on Sept. 17 but was much better last Saturday. The one-time All-Star did not factor in the decision despite blanking Atlanta over five innings, finishing with two strikeouts and three walks. Alvarez is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets.

WALK-OFFS

1. Philadelphia's bullpen boasts a 2.45 ERA over the last 31 games.

2. Mets 3B Asdrubal Cabrera is batting .349 in September.

3. Phillies C Jorge Alfaro had one of his team's three homers Saturday and owns three straight two-hit games.

PREDICTION: Phillies 6, Mets 4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - NY Mets at Philadelphia

W/L Trends

NY Mets

Mets are 5-2 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 Saturday games. Mets are 3-8 in their last 11 games following a loss. Mets are 5-17 in their last 22 road games. Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Mets are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Mets are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 12-2 in Lugos last 14 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 7-2 in Lugos last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Mets are 9-4 in Lugos last 13 starts vs. National League East. Mets are 1-5 in Lugos last 6 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Mets are 1-5 in Lugos last 6 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Mets are 1-5 in Lugos last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Mets are 1-5 in Lugos last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Mets are 0-4 in Lugos last 4 road starts.

Philadelphia

Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. National League East. Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 during game 2 of a series. Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 overall. Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass. Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Phillies are 6-2 in their last 8 home games. Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Phillies are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Phillies are 17-35 in their last 52 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Phillies are 32-67 in their last 99 games vs. a right-handed starter. Phillies are 5-11 in their last 16 Saturday games.

OU Trends

NY Mets

Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall. Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass. Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. National League East. Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 10-4 in Mets last 14 games following a loss. Over is 36-16-4 in Mets last 56 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 13-6 in Mets last 19 road games. Over is 37-18-2 in Mets last 57 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts during game 2 of a series. Over is 6-1 in Lugos last 7 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Over is 4-1-1 in Lugos last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-1 in Lugos last 5 starts on grass. Under is 4-1 in Lugos last 5 starts overall. Over is 7-2-1 in Lugos last 10 road starts. Over is 6-2 in Lugos last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 6-2 in Lugos last 8 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 8-3 in Lugos last 11 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 7-3 in Lugos last 10 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Philadelphia

Under is 4-0-2 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 7-0-2 in Phillies last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 4-0-2 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 5-0 in Phillies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 overall. Under is 6-1-1 in Phillies last 8 on grass. Under is 6-1-2 in Phillies last 9 vs. National League East. Under is 4-1-4 in Phillies last 9 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 3-1-3 in Phillies last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 home games. Under is 6-2-4 in Phillies last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 3-1-1 in Phillies last 5 during game 2 of a series. Under is 5-2-3 in Phillies last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 34-16-5 in Phillies last 55 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Head to Head

Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Philadelphia. Mets are 40-16 in the last 56 meetings in Philadelphia. Mets are 54-24 in the last 78 meetings. Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings.

Umpire Trends - Dan Bellino

• Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Bellino behind home plate.
• Road team is 16-5 in Bellinos last 21 Saturday games behind home plate.
• Under is 6-2-1 in Bellinos last 9 games behind home plate vs. New York.
• Under is 19-7-1 in Bellinos last 27 Saturday games behind home plate.
• Over is 8-3-1 in Bellinos last 12 games behind home plate vs. Philadelphia.
• Under is 18-7-4 in Bellinos last 29 games behind home plate.
• Phillies are 0-7 in their last 7 games with Bellino behind home plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: Atlanta Braves (71-89) at Miami Marlins (76-84)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, September 30 - 7:10 PM EST
WHERE: Marlins Park, Miami, Florida
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Preview: Braves at Marlins

Gracenote
Sep 30, 2017

Giancarlo Stanton has two games left to try and become the sixth player in major-league history to reach 60 homers in a season as his Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves on Saturday. Stanton, who blasted his 58th and 59th home runs in Thursday’s series opener, did not homer in Friday’s victory, setting the stage for a weekend where he will try to become the first player since 2001 to hit 60 in a season.

Stanton contributed two hits Friday, giving him 130 RBIs on the season, and entering Saturday is hitting .303 against the Braves this season with eight homers. Braves rookie second baseman Ozzie Albies homered to lead off Friday’s game and is batting .359 in his past nine games with five stolen bases. Catcher Kurt Suzuki finished 3-for-5 Friday and is batting .448 during his seven-game hitting streak. The Braves have lost five in a row, allowing 27 runs in that stretch.
TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, FSN South (Atlanta), FSN Florida (Miami)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Lucas Sims (3-5, 4.85 ERA) vs. Marlins RH Odrisamer Despaigne (1-3, 4.21)

Sims wraps up his rookie season by getting a third consecutive start after allowing three runs on eight hits in 11 2/3 combined innings while getting a no-decision against Washington on Sept. 20 and a victory over the New York Mets on Monday. The 23-year-old had made his previous four appearances in relief, posting a 4.26 ERA in 6 1/3 innings. Sims lost his first three big-league starts, including a defeat against Miami on Aug. 6, but has won three of his past six starting assignments.

Despaigne recorded his first major-league victory since 2015 in his last start on Monday, giving up two runs on seven hits across six innings in a 5-4 victory at Colorado. The 30-year-old makes his eighth start and 18th appearance of 2017, and has posted a 4.34 ERA in his starts with as many walks as strikeouts (17) in 37 1/3 innings. Despaigne allowed five runs on four hits against the Braves in a start Sept. 10 but bounced back with six innings of three-run ball against the Mets on Sept. 19.

WALK-OFFS

1. Atlanta CF Ender Inciarte, who began the weekend third in the majors with 201 hits, did not start Friday due to a sore left thumb.

2. Miami OF Ichiro Suzuki is one pinch hit away from tying the major-league record for most in a season (28 by John Vander Wal in 1995).

3. Braves RF Nick Markakis is one double shy of reaching 40 doubles for the fifth time in his career and first time since 2010.

PREDICTION: Braves 6, Marlins 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Atlanta at Miami

W/L Trends

Atlanta

Braves are 19-39 in their last 58 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Braves are 17-35 in their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 Saturday games. Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 during game 3 of a series. Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 road games. Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. National League East. Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a loss. Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 overall. Braves are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter. Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 games on grass. Braves are 0-5 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.

Miami

Marlins are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East. Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Marlins are 5-0 in their last 5 home games. Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games. Marlins are 7-2 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Marlins are 6-2 in their last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter. Marlins are 10-21 in their last 31 overall. Marlins are 10-21 in their last 31 games on grass. Marlins are 3-7 in their last 10 games following a win. Marlins are 5-12 in their last 17 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 5-13 in their last 18 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Marlins are 1-6 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series. Marlins are 1-4 in Despaignes last 5 starts vs. National League East.

OU Trends

Atlanta

Under is 6-0 in Braves last 6 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 5-0 in Braves last 5 during game 3 of a series. Over is 6-1-1 in Braves last 8 Saturday games. Under is 6-1 in Braves last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 5-1 in Braves last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 9-2 in Braves last 11 games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 8-2 in Braves last 10 overall. Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 road games. Under is 8-2 in Braves last 10 on grass. Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 8-2 in Braves last 10 vs. National League East. Under is 4-1 in Braves last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 35-14-2 in Braves last 51 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 7-3 in Braves last 10 games following a loss. Over is 18-8 in Braves last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Over is 4-1 in Sims' last 5 road starts. Over is 5-2 in Sims' last 7 starts on grass. Over is 5-2 in Sims' last 7 starts overall.

Miami

Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 Saturday games. Over is 5-1-2 in Marlins last 8 during game 3 of a series. Under is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Over is 7-2-2 in Marlins last 11 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 7-2-2 in Marlins last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 10-3-2 in Marlins last 15 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 6-2-2 in Marlins last 10 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 6-2-1 in Marlins last 9 home games. Over is 6-2-2 in Marlins last 10 vs. National League East. Over is 5-2 in Marlins last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 12-5-2 in Marlins last 19 overall. Over is 12-5-2 in Marlins last 19 on grass. Under is 4-0 in Despaignes last 4 home starts. Under is 5-1 in Despaignes last 6 starts on grass. Under is 5-1 in Despaignes last 6 starts overall.

Head to Head

Braves are 41-20 in the last 61 meetings in Miami.

Umpire Trends - Mark Ripperger

• Under is 9-2-1 in Rippergers last 12 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
• Over is 4-1 in Rippergers last 5 games behind home plate vs. Miami.
• Home team is 9-3 in Rippergers last 12 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
• Home team is 5-2 in Rippergers last 7 games behind home plate.
• Under is 7-3-1 in Rippergers last 11 games behind home plate.
• Home team is 11-5 in Rippergers last 16 Saturday games behind home plate.
• Under is 11-5 in Rippergers last 16 Saturday games behind home plate.
• Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Ripperger behind home plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAME: Detroit Tigers (63-97) at Minnesota Twins (84-76)
DATE/TIME: Saturday, September 30 - 7:10 PM EST
WHERE: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A
Preview: Tigers at Twins

Gracenote
Sep 30, 2017

The Minnesota Twins are the only playoff-bound American League team certain of its fate this weekend and will continue to tune up for Tuesday's wild card game. The Twins, who host the Detroit Tigers for the second of a three-game series on Saturday, will serve as the visitors in the one-game playoff at either the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.

The Twins began their tune up on Friday with a 6-3 victory and activated slugger Miguel Sano from the 10-day disabled list in time to place him on the postseason roster, though they have yet to decide if he will get a spot on that 25-man roster. "We have had a nice flow. Our offense has obviously been really good the last several weeks, minus Miguel," Minnesota manager Paul Molitor told reporters. "But you are also talking about a pretty rare bat that has a chance to help you. We are going to have to figure out if there is a fit there, and if it's going to make us better. I think everyone will understand, in that clubhouse, the potential of a healthy Miguel swinging the bat like he can. So you do, obviously, have to look at all angles." The Tigers are fumbling toward last place in the AL Central and are on pace to record their most losses since the 2003 squad dropped a record 119 games. Detroit will try to pull off the win on Saturday behind right-hander Buck Farmer while the Twins begin what will likely be a bullpen game with rookie Aaron Slegers.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, FSN Detroit, FSN North (Minnesota)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Tigers RH Buck Farmer (4-5, 7.33 ERA) vs. Twins RH Aaron Slegers (0-0, 7.36)

Farmer is making his second straight start against Minnesota and is hoping for a better result after serving up five runs on eight hits and three walks over five innings on Sunday. That loss was the third straight for the 26-year-old, who surrendered a total of 14 runs and 18 hits in 11 2/3 innings over those three outings. Farmer is trying to prove he belongs in the 2018 Detroit rotation but did not complete six innings in any of his last eight turns.

Slegers is getting the spot start in place of Jose Berrios, who will get extra rest in case he is needed in relief of Ervin Santana in the wild card game. Slegers is making his third career start and first appearance since Sept. 17 against Toronto, when he allowed two runs on two hits in two-thirds of an inning of relief. The 25-year-old was rocked for five runs on five hits - two homers - over four innings in his last major-league start on Sept. 6 at Tampa Bay.

WALK-OFFS

1. Twins 2B Brian Dozier recorded multiple hits in five of his last six games.

2. Tigers 3B/RF Nick Castellanos pushed his career high to 26 homers with a blast on Friday.

3. Detroit could use UTIL Andrew Romine at all nine positions in Sunday's season finale.

PREDICTION: Tigers 8, Twins 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Detroit at Minnesota



W/L Trends

Detroit

Tigers are 17-38 in their last 55 vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 17-39 in their last 56 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Tigers are 15-37 in their last 52 games vs. a right-handed starter. Tigers are 8-21 in their last 29 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tigers are 13-38 in their last 51 games on grass. Tigers are 12-40 in their last 52 overall. Tigers are 6-20 in their last 26 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tigers are 5-17 in their last 22 games following a loss. Tigers are 5-18 in their last 23 road games. Tigers are 5-21 in their last 26 vs. American League Central. Tigers are 1-5 in their last 6 during game 2 of a series. Tigers are 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 in their last 4 Saturday games. Tigers are 3-7 in Farmers last 10 road starts. Tigers are 2-5 in Farmers last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tigers are 2-6 in Farmers last 8 starts vs. American League Central. Tigers are 1-4 in Farmers last 5 starts. Tigers are 1-6 in Farmers last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Tigers are 0-8 in Farmers last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Tigers are 0-4 in Farmers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. Tigers are 0-4 in Farmers last 4 starts on grass.

Minnesota

Twins are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Twins are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win. Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Twins are 13-4 in their last 17 home games. Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. American League Central. Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 overall. Twins are 6-2 in their last 8 games on grass. Twins are 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

OU Trends

Detroit

Over is 4-0-1 in Tigers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 7-2 in Tigers last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 7-2-1 in Tigers last 10 vs. American League Central. Over is 9-3-1 in Tigers last 13 overall. Over is 9-3-1 in Tigers last 13 on grass. Over is 15-5-1 in Tigers last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 10-4-1 in Tigers last 15 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 11-5 in Tigers last 16 road games. Over is 11-5-1 in Tigers last 17 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 13-6-1 in Tigers last 20 games following a loss. Over is 4-0 in Farmers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest. Over is 7-1-1 in Farmers last 9 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 6-1 in Farmers last 7 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 6-1 in Farmers last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Farmers last 5 starts overall. Over is 11-4-1 in Farmers last 16 starts on grass. Over is 7-3 in Farmers last 10 road starts.

Minnesota

Under is 4-0-1 in Twins last 5 during game 2 of a series. Over is 4-1-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Under is 4-1 in Twins last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Over is 6-2-1 in Twins last 9 overall. Over is 6-2-1 in Twins last 9 on grass. Over is 3-1-1 in Twins last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 3-1-1 in Twins last 5 games following a win. Over is 6-2-1 in Twins last 9 vs. American League Central. Over is 5-2 in Twins last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 31-15-5 in Twins last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Head to Head

Over is 12-2-2 in the last 16 meetings. Tigers are 15-3 in the last 18 meetings in Minnesota. Over is 23-9-3 in the last 35 meetings in Minnesota. Tigers are 0-6 in the last 6 meetings.

Umpire Trends - James Hoye

Over is 4-0 in Hoyes last 4 Saturday games behind home plate vs. Minnesota. Over is 3-0-2 in Hoyes last 5 games behind home plate vs. Detroit. Twins are 4-1 in their last 5 Saturday games with Hoye behind home plate. Home team is 4-1 in Hoyes last 5 Saturday games behind home plate vs. Minnesota. Over is 4-1 in Hoyes last 5 games behind home plate vs. Minnesota. Over is 3-1-2 in Hoyes last 6 Saturday games behind home plate. Road team is 12-5 in Hoyes last 17 games behind home plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, September 30

National League
Reds @ Cubs
Stephens 1-0, 5.52 in three starts this season (under 2-1). This is his first road start. Reds’ first 5-inning record with him: 2-1

Lester is 4-1, 4.94 in his last five starts; over is 8-1 in his last nine. Cubs are 11-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-11-6

Reds lost nine of their last ten games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 games. Cubs won seven of last nine games (under 6-2-1).

Pirates @ Nationals
Taillon is 1-2, 5.52 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Pirates are 6-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-8-5

Scherzer is 2-0, 2.07 in his last two starts; over is 9-5 in his last 14. Washington is 10-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 19-7-4

Pirates won four of their last six games; under is 14-2 in their last 16 road games. Washington is 8-4 in its last 12 games; under is 12-5-2 in their last 19 games.

Mets @ Phillies
Lugo is 2-1, 4.05 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Mets are 5-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-5-4

Alvarez is 0-1, 3.60 in two starts this year (under 2-0). Phillies lost his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-0

Mets won three of their last four games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 road games. Phillies are 6-2 in last eight home games; under is 6-1 in their last seven games.

Braves @ Marlins
Sims is 1-0, 2.32 in his last two starts; his last three starts went over. Atlanta is 2-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-5

Despaigne is 1-1, 4.37 in his last four starts (under 5-2). Miami is 2-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-3

Braves lost six of last seven games; under is 7-2 in their last nine. Marlins won its last five home games; under is 4-2 in its last six games overall.

Dodgers @ Rockies
Kershaw is 2-1, 3.15 in his last three starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Dodgers are 9-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 21-3-3

Marquez is 1-1, 6.27 in his last four starts (over 3-1). Colorado is 9-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-7-4

Dodgers won four of their last five games; three of their last four went over. Colorado won four of last five games; under is 9-2 in their last 11. Rockies clinch playoff spot with win here or a loss by Milwaukee.

Brewers @ Cardinals
Guerra was Milwaukee’s Opening Day starter; his last start was July 29. He is 0-3, 8.63 in his last six starts (over 4-2). Milwaukee is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-6-2

Weaver is 3-2, 4.39 in five home starts (over 5-4). St Louis is 3-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-2-1

Milwaukee won six of last seven road games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games. St Louis lost six of last seven games; under is 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

Padres @ Giants
Chacin is 2-0, 3.63 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Padres are 6-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-16-4

Cain is 0-3, 7.50 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Giants are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-15-1. This is Cain’s last major league start; he is retiring after the season.

Padres lost their last five games, all of which went over. Giants lost four of last seven games; under is 6-1 in their last seven home games.

——————————–

American League
Blue Jays @ New York
Stroman is 2-0, 2.84 in his last two starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Toronto is 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-13-2

Garcia is 0-3, 6.03 in eight starts for New York (under 6-2). NY is 2-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-5-2

Toronto won three of its last five games; four of their last five road games went over. New York won 12 of last 16 games; under is 3-1 in their last four home games.

Orioles @ Rays
Castro is making his first MLB start after 75 relief stints; he is 3-2, 3.29 in 38 relief appearances this year (63 IP). His last pro start was in 2015, in the minor leagues.

Archer is 0-5, 10.91 in his last five starts; under is 6-4 in his last ten. Rays are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-11-5

Orioles lost five of last six games; under is 11-4 in their last 15 road games. Tampa Bay lost three of last five games; under is 20-9-1 in their last 30 home games.

White Sox @ Indians
Fulmer is 1-1, 5.27 in four starts this year (under 2-1-1). Chicago split his two road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-1-1

Kluber is 6-0, 1.37 in his last six starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Indians are 9-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-10-3

White Sox won six of last nine games; under is 6-4 in their last ten road games. Cleveland is 32-3 in its last 35 games; under is 10-4 in their last 14 home games.

Astros @ Red Sox
McCullers is 0-2, 8.89 in his last six starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Astros are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-8-4

Pomeranz is 2-1, 3.54 in his last four starts; over is 10-7-1 in his last 18 starts. Boston is 11-4 inches home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 17-12-2

Houston won 13 of its last 15 games; over is 5-1 in their last six. Boston won 10 of last 15 games; over is 6-2 in their last eight home games.

A’s @ Rangers
Gossett is 0-2, 10.05 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. A’s are 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-11-1

Cashner is 1-2, 10.29 in his last three starts; over is 6-1 in his last seven. Rangers are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-8-3

A’s won 9 of last 12 games; over is 9-7 in their last 16 road games. Texas lost seven of its last eight games; under is 9-4 in their last 13.

Tigers @ Twins
Farmer is 0-3, 10.80 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. Detroit is 3-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6

Slegers is 0-0, 6.10 in two starts this year (over 1-1). Twins win his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-0-1

Detroit lost 10 of its last 11 games; over is 9-5-1 in their last 15. Twins won six of last eight games; over is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.

Mariners @ Angels
Moore is 1-3, 0-4, 5.60 in his last five starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight starts. Seattle is 1-1 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-6-2

Nolasco is 0-3, 5.49 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Angels are 5-11 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-18-5

Seattle is 3-9 in its last 12 games; their last three games went over. Angels lost nine of last 12 games; over is 3-1 in their last four.

__________________________

Interleague

Diamondbacks @ Royals
Walker is 0-2, 7.98 in his last three starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten. Arizona is 8-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-6

Junis is 1-1, 5.02 in his last four starts (over 8-5-2). Royals are 5-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-6-2

Arizona won five of last eight games (over 5-3). Royals are 6-3 in last nine home games; under is 5-1 in their last six.

______________________________

Record with this pitcher starting:
National League
Cin-Chi: Stephens 1-2; Lester 18-13
Pitt-Wsh: Taillon 12-12; Scherzer 21-9
NY-Phil: Lugo 9-8; Alvarez 0-2
Atl-Mia: Sims 4-5; Despaigne 3-4
LA-Colo: Kershaw 22-4; Marquez 17-11
Mil-StL: Guerra 4-9; Weaver 7-2
SD-SF: Chacin 17-14; Cain 8-14

American League
Tor-NY: Stroman 19-13; Garcia 4-4
Balt-TB: Castro 0-0; Archer 15-18
Chi-Clev: Fulmer 2-2; Kluber 20-8
Hst-Bos: McCullers 13-8; Pomeranz 21-10
A’s-Tex: Gossett 6-11; Cashner 13-14
Det-Min: Farmer 4-6; Slegers 2-0
Sea-LA: Moore 2-7; Nolasco 10-22

Interleague
Az-KC: Walker 14-13; Junis 10-5

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning:
National League
Cin-Chi: Stephens 0-3; Lester 11-31
Pitt-Wsh: Taillon 6-24; Scherzer 7-30
NY-Phil: Lugo 4-17; Alvarez 0-2
Atl-Mia: Sims 3-9; Despaigne 2-7
LA-Colo: Kershaw 5-26; Marquez 8-28
Mil-StL: Guerra 2-13; Weaver 2-9
SD-SF: Chacin 11-31; Cain 9-22

American League
Tor-NY: Stroman 6-32; Garcia 6-8
Balt-TB: Castro 0-0; Archer 11-33
Chi-Clev: Fulmer 0-3; Kluber 5-28
Hst-Bos: McCullers 4-21; Pomeranz 9-31
A’s-Tex: Gossett 2-17; Cashner 6-27
Det-Min: Farmer 5-10; Slegers 1-2
Sea-LA: Moore 2-9; Nolasco 13-32

Interleague
Az-KC: Walker 7-27; Junis 4-15

_________________________

Umpires
National League
Cin-Chi: Over is 7-2-2 in last 11 Winters games.
Pitt-Wsh: Under is 8-3-1 in last 12 Torres games.
NY-Phil: Under is 16-6 in last 22 Bellino games.
Atl-Mia: Under is 7-3 in last ten Ripperger games.
LA-Colo: Under is 7-2 in last nine Eddings games.
Mil-StL: Under is 5-1-2 in last eight Wolf games.
SD-SF: Three of last four TBarrett games went over.

American League
Tor-NY: Over is 6-2 in last eight Tichenor games.
Balt-TB: Over is 8-1-1 in last ten BWelke games.
Chi-Clev: Under is 6-3 in last nine Hoberg games.
Hst-Bos: Favorites are 10-3 in last 13 Wendelstedt games.
A’s-Tex: Three of last four Randazzo games stayed under.
Det-Min: Three of last four Hoye games went over.
Sea-LA: Three of last four Conroy games stayed under.

Interleague
Az-KC: Three of last four Fairchild games stayed under.

Interleague play
NL @ AL– 85-57 AL, favorites -$420
AL @ NL– 75-72 NL, favorites +$396
Total: 157-131 AL, favorites -$24

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 71-69-4
AL @ NL: Over 75-65-8
Total: Over 146-134-12

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/19/17
Ariz 28-26-20……43-25–12……..71-51
Atl 27-35-10……26-42-8………..53-77
Cubs 33-31-8…….39-25-14………..72-56
Reds 23-43-9……..30-37-9…………53-80
Colo 38-31-7………40-29-5………..78-60
LA 38-24-13…….41-25-9…………79-49
Miami 32-36-10…….36-26-11………68-62
Milw 37-27-10…….38-29-10……….74-56
Mets 33-39-5……..30-37-7………….63-76
Philly 19-43-16……30-36-9………..49-79
Pitt 31-37-9…….28-33-13………..60-70
St. Louis 32-34-9……..39-25-10………..71-59
SD 21-46-8……..38-29–9…………59-75
SF 16-49-9……..30-33-13……….46-81
Wash 43-23-7……34-33-10………….77-56

Orioles 29-39-5……..31-39-8………..60-78
Boston 31-35-11………34-37-3……….65-72
White Sox 25-40-11………29-42–4…….54-82
Cleveland 45-23-8……..39-24-10……..84-47
Detroit 27-38-10…….30-36-11……..57-74
Astros 37-28-11……..47-24-5………84-52
KC 26-35-13……..30-31-13…….56-66
Angels 26-39-8………31-31-14……..57-70
Twins 38-24-13………38-33-8……..76-57
NYY 34-38-7……….40-28-5…..…74-66
A’s 29-39-10……..32-32-12……..61-71
Seattle 29-39-9……..39-25-11………68-64
TB 36-29-11……..40-24-9……..76-53
Texas 35-27-12……..38-28-9……..73-55
Toronto 30-40-5……..30-33-12……..60-73

%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/19/17)
Ariz 24-76……..27-74………..51
Atl 17-71……….19-79………36
Cubs 20-72……..26-78………..46
Reds 30-76……..27-76……….57
Colo 20-76……..25-74..……..45
LA 23-76……..26-74..…….49
Miami 32-78……..27-73……….59
Milw 24-74……29-78…..…..53
Mets 34-75……..26-75……….60
Philly 17-78……..24-74……….41
Pitt 22-77……..22-75……….44
StL 16-76……..23-73………..39
SD 23-75……….26-75……….49
SF 17-75……….22-77……….39
Wash 26-73……..30-77……….56

Orioles 17-76……..25-77……….42
Boston 21-77……..18-74……….39
White Sox 24-76……20-75……….44
Clev 22-77……..26-75………48
Detroit 18-74…….27-77………45
Astros 21-77……..29-74………50
KC 18-75……..16-76………..34
Angels 27-75……..22-77……….49
Twins 17-73……..20-77……….37
NYY 19-78……..21-73……….40
A’s 20-76……..27-76………47
Seattle 21-77…….25-77……….46
TB 22-74……..26-77………48
Texas 29-76……..30-74………59
Toronto 26-76……..21-78………47

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, September 30

Trend Report

1:05 PM
TORONTO vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games on the road
NY Yankees are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games at home
NY Yankees are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing at home against Toronto

1:05 PM
HOUSTON vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CHI CUBS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Chi Cubs's last 13 games

4:15 PM
MILWAUKEE vs. ST. LOUIS
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of St. Louis's last 12 games at home
St. Louis is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

6:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 10 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore's last 14 games
Tampa Bay is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore

7:05 PM
NY METS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Mets's last 14 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
NY Mets are 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games

7:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
Pittsburgh is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Pittsburgh's last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

7:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. CLEVELAND
Chi White Sox are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
Cleveland is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cleveland's last 14 games at home

7:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Miami
Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games

7:10 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Minnesota is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home

7:15 PM
ARIZONA vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Arizona's last 9 games on the road
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games

8:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Oakland

8:10 PM
LA DODGERS vs. COLORADO
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Dodgers's last 12 games when playing on the road against Colorado
Colorado is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

9:07 PM
SEATTLE vs. LA ANGELS
Seattle is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

Good value with the Gamecocks this Saturday night as they play in College Station against conference-rival Texas A&M.

A&M's double-overtime win last week in Arlington over Arkansas was "rousing", and it kept the heat off head coach Kevin Sumlin's ass for a week at least, but I do think the Aggies are going to have a hard time putting South Carolina in their rear-view mirror at home on Saturday night.

Texas A&M is just 6-13-1 against the spread as the home favorite their last 20 under Sumlin, while South Carolina has covered 3 straight on the road under Coach Muschamp, including an outright thrashing at Missouri a few weeks back.

True, South Carolina barely escaped at home last week against an underrated Louisiana Tech team, as the 'Cocks needed a closing seconds score to walk away with the 17-16 win.

Perhaps the Gamecocks were looking ahead a little to this game, which happens to be a "triple-revenge" spot for the visitors. Texas A&M has won the last 3 series meetings, but South Carolina has cashed the ticket in the last pair in the underdog role. I like them to cash again in the dog role, with the outright upset a definite possibility.

Take the points.