Sunday 9-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

CAPPERS CLUB

Falcons vs. Lions Over 50.5

This play just missed out on our premium card. The Falcons and the Lions face off on Sunday and with two explosive offenses, this game is going to be a shootout.

Both of these teams average over 28 points per game on this young season, and with two explosive quarterbacks this might be a race to the first team to 40 points.
Both of these defenses have looked decent so far this year, but the Lions especially haven't played a quarterback like Matt Ryan.

I think he will have no issues picking apart their defense. There will be very little defense played in this game.

Some trends to note. Over is 13-2-1 in Falcons last 16 vs. NFC. Over is 4-1 in Lions last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Back the Over.

[New York Knight]

RAY MONOHAN

Cleveland Browns -1.5

It's extremely rare for the Browns to be a road favorite. However, in this spot, they are worth a move.

Cleveland has looked much better through the first two games than they have in previous seasons. The defense is actually playing with some passion and drive as they've been able to keep Cleveland close in both games. Allowing just 22.5 points through the first two, this defense will see a Colts offense without Andrew Luck, a huge plus.
The Colts offense is averaging just 11.0 points and they haven't had any sort of consistency or success when it comes to throwing or running the ball. That is a huge red flag entering here, especially given how swarming this Cleveland defense has been.

Some trends to note. Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC.

While it's quite a different feeling to lay points with this Browns team, the Colts are simply bad without Luck in the backfield.
Back Cleveland.

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

[New York Knight]

Wunderdog

JETS +7

The Miami Dolphins escaped LA with a 19-17 win over the snake bit Chargers, who continue to lose close game after close game. This one was a missed field goal as time expired. The Jets will be home after a pair of road disasters, which have them at 0-2 to open the season. Miami is getting way to much respect here, with a backup QB, and on the road while the Jets are in the disrespect column for most bettors, but this is a contrarian league. The Dolphins resume against New York isn't exactly pretty as they own a 17-36-3 ATS mark in the last 56 meetings, and just 4-8 ATS here as a road favorite, which includes 0-3 ATS when the line is -6 or higher. This is a division game and way too many points, especially this early in the season. Miami has never played well in the role of a favorite at just 46-68 ATS in their last 114. I'm going to grab the points in this one play on the NY Jets.

[New York Knight]

JACK JONES

BROWNS -1.5

The Cleveland Browns are clearly improved this season despite their 0-2 start. They were competitive against two of the best teams in the NFL in the Steelers and Ravens. They were only outgained by four total yards in those two games combined, so statistically they hung right with them.

The problem with the Browns thus far has been turnovers and special teams mistakes. They committed five turnovers against the Ravens, yet still had numbers chances to cover the spread as 8-point dogs in a 14-point loss. They only lost by 3 to the Steelers, and the difference in that game was a punt block that was returned for a TD by the Steelers.

Now the Browns will be motivated for a rare victory here against arguably the worst team in the NFL in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts are 0-2 and haven't even been competitive despite playing weaker competition. They were outgained by 148 yards in their 9-46 loss to the Rams. Then they were outgained by a depleted Cardinals team by 123 yards last week in a game they did not deserve to go to overtime against. That games was a bigger blowout than the final score. The Rams and Cardinals aren't as good as the Steelers and Ravens, which is a key points here.

The Browns have the better defense, and it's not really even close. They are giving up just 313 yards per game and 5.3 per play thus far, while the Colts are allowing 381 yards per game and 6.1 per play. The Browns are averaging 311 yards per game and 5.3 per play on offense, so they have moved the ball fine. The Colts are only averaging 245 yards per game and 4.4 per play. So the Browns are basically dead even in yards per game and yards per play on the season, while the Colts are getting outgained by 136 yards per game and 1.7 yards per play.

Indianapolis is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 home games after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. Plays on road teams (CLEVELAND) - off a loss against a division rival, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 6 or more losses in last 8 games are 51-24 (68%) ATS since 1983. The Browns are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

[New York Knight]

DARRYL TUCHOLSKI

BROWNS -130

The Colts let the Cardinals linger last week, eventually costing themselves the game in overtime 16-13. Cleveland will be able to establish the run, meaning Crowell should carry this game, the Browns defense should have no issues limiting the Colts.

[New York Knight]

MIKE LUNDIN

BROWNS -125

The Cleveland Browns won just one game all of last season and they're heading into Week 3 of the current season still eyeing their first win. The Indianapolis Colts are in the same spot after back-to-back losses to the Rams and the Cardinals, but I think the Browns will be the team to come out of this contest with the W.

The Colts failed to hold onto a 13-3 fourth quarter lead in a tough 16-13 overtime home loss to the Cardinals last weekend. They'll once again be without QB Andrew Luck and his replacement Jacoby Brissett completed just 20-of-37 passes for 216 yards with no touchdowns and one interception against Arizona. They couldn't get their running game going either as the team amassed just a total of 76 yards on 29 carries Here they'll face a Cleveland D that has held two tough opponents in Pittsburgh and Baltimore to an average of 313.5 yards per game on the season.

The Browns actually outgained the Ravens 386-337 in last week's 24-10 defeat but gave away the ball way to easy and five turnovers ruined any chance of winning the game. Starting QB DeShone Kizer threw three picks before leaving the game with migraine, but I expect the rookie to be healthy for this game do much better.

Cleveland has not been favored on the road since giving five points at Jacksonville back in 2014. The books have made the Browns a favorite here for a reason, and I'm backing the Browns to win outright.

[New York Knight]

Tony Finn

Raiders -3

Oakland travels three time zones for a primetime event in Washington on FedEx Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET and the Sunday Night Football contest will be broadcast on NBC Sports.

Raiders quarterback Derek Carr and his Oakland teammates were Super Bowl contenders a season ago and with offseason upgrades and a 2-0 start to the 2017 campaign expectations are as optimistic if not higher than they were last year. And injury to Carr killed the Raiders chances of advancing beyond the Wild Cards game in Houston but with a healthy field general behind center the team is the best of the AFC West.

There have been a handful of talented young quarterbacks in this league that began their careers losing their first 10 starts or more but went on to successful NFL tenures. Carr is one of those. The Oakland signal caller is making his 50th NFL start on Sunday night in the nation's capital and does so with talented receivers, a ground and pound veteran running back and the AFC defensive player of the year.

Oakland is 2-0 with a eastern time zone win already in their pocket when they defeated the Tennessee Titans in Nashville in Week #1. They followed that victory with a Week #2 drubbing over the least of the AFC, the New York Jets, at the Coliseum.

Washington wasn't good in their season opening loss to divisional foe Philadelphia and escaped Los Angeles last Sunday with a fortunate victory over the Rams.

The addition of Marshawn Lynch to the Raiders offense makes them head and shoulders more balanced and better than they were in 2016. That is saying a lot considering Oakland ranked in the Top-10 in points per game and fourth in the AFC behind only New England, Indianapolis and the then San Diego Chargers in 2016.

Carr and Lynch combine with former No. 4 overall pick wide out Amari Cooper, as well, veteran WR Michael Crabtree and All-Everything defensive end Khalil Mack with the aim of having a deep postseason run in 2018.

The offseason drama in Washington was centered around quarterback Kirk Cousins. Would the organization trade him, tag him or negotiate a new deal for the signal caller that threw for nearly 5,000 yards a season ago? This past summer's roster transactions took a toll on the 'Skins offense. The team lost their two top receivers, via free agency, and are using former quarterback Terrelle Pryor alongside Jamison Crowder as the primary targets for Cousins.

While there are a handful of new offensive players learning HC Jay Gruden's playbook it is the team's injuries that are most alarming heading into the Week #3 Sunday Night event.

Talented tight end Jordan Reed and starting running back Rob Kelley are both questionable to assist Cousins and the offense against the potent Raiders. And defensively the Redskins could be missing All-Pro cornerback Josh Norman on Sunday night after injuring his shoulder in the victory over the Rams.

[New York Knight]

Teddy Covers

Jaguars +4

Joe Flacco missed all of preseason; one of many injured veterans for the Ravens in August. Baltimore lost nearly a dozen guys to IR in training camp, losing key bodies on both sides of the football. Flacco has looked rusty, with only 338 passing yards through two games. And he hasn’t been tested – the ravens have not yet trailed this season. The Ravens, as a team, have only one explosive play on offense through two games. They’ve rushed for under four yards per carry. And now the key to their offensive line, six time pro bowler Marshall Yanda, has been placed on injured reserve after breaking his ankle last week.

Yanda’s injury cannot be overstated. With him gone, this team is now without three of their five OL starters from last year, as well as their top two backups from a season ago. This would be a problem for any offense. It matters even more with a QB and skill position talent that don’t have much familiarity with one another after the barrage of August injuries.

And for all the success the Ravens have had with their 2-0 SU and ATS start, let’s not forget two things. First, Baltimore has generated 10 turnovers. No other team has more than five. Every team looks good and covers spreads when they are +7 in turnovers over a two game span.

Secondly, John Harbaugh is not a ‘let’s lay points with him’ kind of coach, especially on the highway. The Ravens have been feisty underdogs for years under Harbaugh. However, they’ve got a grand total of one pointspread cover in their last eight tries as favorites away from home dating back to 2014; failing repeatedly in this role. I’ve got Harbaugh as 3-10 ATS in his last 13 tries laying more than a field goal on any field, and all three of those covers have come against the same team – Cleveland.

The defense Baltimore is facing this week is no joke. Say what you want about Blake Bortles (yes, I know Bortles sucks, but I think the Jags can cover in spite of him), Jacksonville’s stop unit is the best one the Ravens have seen this year. Offseason acquisition Calais Campbell has been a pass rushing force, who’s veteran leadership has been “off the charts” according to head coach Doug Marrone. Free agent signee AJ Bouye gives them a stud cornerback duo with last year’s #1 pick Jalen Ramsey, on the other side. This defense finished #4 in the NFL in yards per play allowed last year. They dominated the game at Houston in Week 1. And they kept the Titans out of the end zone until the second half last week before finally wearing down late.

The Jags play in London every year. They won their London game in 2015. They won their London game last year, developing a following in the UK and at least some semblance of a home field edge at Wembley. This is the first ever game that the Ravens have played outside the continental US. Put it all together and the Jags catching more than a field goal are a clear choice for this bettor.

[New York Knight]

Strike Point Sports

New England -

New England isn't as good as people think. Tom Brady looks old and slow. This team isn't going to run through teams like they have in the past"… Ummm, yeah, lets slow that down. The Patriots, following their surprising loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, dropped 30 points in the first half on the New Orleans Saints. Yes, this Texans defense is significantly better than the Saints. But their offense won't stand a chance of keeping pace with the Patriots. New England is just too good on the offensive side of the football, and this is with their top WR Cooks not really doing anything as of yet. Once Cooks gets going this team is going to be even more dangerous than we all know they can be. New England is 26-10-2 ATS in their last 38 home games while Houston is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. Lay the big number on New England in this one as they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus the AFC.

[New York Knight]

Executive Sports

Cincinnati +

Play Against Home favorites (GREEN BAY) team with a poor scoring defense last season allowed 24 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (33-5, 87% since 1983.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
The last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
The last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (13-2).
The last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (21-4).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 14
David Schwab

The Saskatchewan Roughriders got back to their winning ways last Friday with 27-19 victory against Hamilton as three-point road favorites to kickoff action in Week 13 of the CFL season.

In the first of two games on Saturday, Toronto successfully defended its home turf as a four-point underdog in a 34-26 win over Edmonton. It was the Eskimos fifth straight-up loss in a row.

Calgary extended its current SU winning streak to eight games with Saturday’s 27-13 victory against British Columbia as a nine-point home favorite. The weekend’s betting action came to a close on Sunday with Ottawa hammering Montreal 29-11 in a game that closed as a PICK.

Sunday, Sept. 24

Calgary Stampeders (10-1-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

The Stampeders are once again the class of the CFL behind their current SU eight-game winning streak. They have been pretty good to bettors along for the ride at 6-1-1 ATS and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games behind a stifling defense that has not allowed more than 24 points in each of its last eight games. Bo Levi Mitchell is fourth in the league in passing yards (3,491) and Jerome Messam remains at the top of the list when it comes to rushing yards with 770.

If there is one team that might be able to challenge Calgary right now, it could be the Roughriders. They have won five of their last seven games both SU and ATS after falling to Calgary 27-10 on the road as 10-point underdogs on July 22. Brandon Bridge filled in for an injured Kevin Glenn last week and he looked pretty sharp completing 21 of his 31 passing attempts for 231 yards and three touchdown throws. Glenn could be back this week, but Bridge proved that he can run this offense.

Betting Trends

-- Calgary has won the last seven meetings SU while going 6-1 ATS. The total stayed UNDER 55 points in the first meeting this season and it has stayed UNDER in the last three games in this heated West Division clash.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Albuquerque

Albuquerque - Race 3

Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 10 Cent Superfecta


Claiming $6,250 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $13,100 • Post: 2:20P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOR HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED AT THE DOWNS AT ALBUQUERQUE IN 2017, AND HAVE NOT FINISHED BETTER THAN THIRD, HORSES LAST START MUST BE AT THE DOWNS OF ALBUQUERQUE IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PROUD ELIAS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PROUD ELIAS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Ho rse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SONG OF LAURA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
8
PROUD ELIAS
9/2

9/5
5
SONG OF LAURA
3/1

7/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #2 - 2:01 PM
The Ashley T. Cole Stakes
9.0 FURLONGS INNER TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $125,000.00 PURSE

#5 GET JETS
#7 CALL PROVISION
#2 CLOONTIA
#1 BECKER'S GALAXY

F.Y.I. folks ... The late Ashley T. Cole served as chairman of the New York State Racing Commission. He played a pivotal role in the formation of The New York Racing Association. Here in the 32nd renewal of The Cole, #5 GET JETS qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," is the overall speed and pace profile leader in this field racing at today's distance of 9.0 furlongs on the grass, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in five straight, including a trio of "POWER RUN WINS" embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. #7 CALL PROVISION, a 4-1 shot, has won three of his respective last five starts, including a pair of "POWER RUN WINS" found in his last start, as well as in his 4th race back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Churchill Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:14pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $51,000 Class Rating: 84

Rating: 4

#1 WAR TOM (ML=5/1)
#7 BURNSIDE (ML=3/1)


WAR TOM - This trainer does a good job stretching out any thoroughbred. Horses going a route for the first time almost always show an improvement. I like a runner that makes a good late run in a sprint race and comes back in a route. BURNSIDE - If you review the PP's for this thoroughbred, you'll see he has recorded the top Equibase speed figure at the distance and surface. A repeat performance today and this horse has a superb chance to win. Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the first try on Sep 8th. Should be acquainted with the horse even better in today's contest. Ran a fast time for the last quarter on September 8th at Arlington. Anything close in this event should get the job done. Have to make this colt a strong challenger; he comes off a good race on September 8th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NEPTHENE (ML=5/2), #4 KILLEEN (ML=5/1), #14 NETAS (ML=8/1),

NEPTHENE - August 14th is the last time we've seen this colt around. Have to be a little bit leery. Finished third in his most recent race with a substandard speed figure. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. KILLEEN - This colt most likely won't be close at the finish line. NETAS - Last raced on September 7th at Kentucky Downs, finishing eighth. Unlikely to perk up off of that outing in today's race. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to garner a much better rating than in the last race to vie in this turf route.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - BURNSIDE - Although finishing second with short odds, this colt figures to be tough against these horses.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #1 WAR TOM on top if we're getting at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $9570 Class Rating: 89

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 4 ODESEUS 5/2

# 1 BYE THE FIRE 5/1

# 2 BF CAPTAIN CAVEMAN 6/1

ODESEUS looks quite good to best this field. Is tough not to examine based on speed figs which have been formidable - 84 avg - of late. Had one of the top speed figures of this field in his last contest. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this entrant a solid contender. BYE THE FIRE - Has longshot possibilities and could prove victorious at big odds. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run as of late. BF CAPTAIN CAVEMAN - This gelding obviously likes the distance, going 3 for 12 in his races lately. Ran a solid last race.