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SPORTS WAGERS
CINCINNATI +100 over St. Louis
The Cardinals Wild Card hopes are hanging by a thread, which is more than enough motivation for the Reds to put this hated rival out of their misery. The Reds continue to be a serious threat at home (39-36) while the Cards are 35-40 on the road.
Jack Flaherty has made three starts since being called up in September and while the scouting reports were good, the results have not been. The scouting report said that the 21-year-old right-hander started the year at Double-A, had great success, and then pitched 85 innings at Triple-A Memphis in the tough Pacific Coast League. Didn't matter, as he pitched well there too with a decent strikeout rate while his walk rate only rose slightly. Flaherty stands 6'4" and weighs 205 pounds. The former first-rounder has a solid four-pitch mix and he throws strikes. So while none of his pitches are truly plus, and thus he is not likely to become an ace, he has a very good chance of reaching his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. He knows how to pitch, his mechanics are repeatable, and he has shown consistent success all the way up the minor league ladder. His fastball only reaches the low-90s mph, but he knows how to mix in his curve, slider and changeup to keep batters off balance. For his minor league career his oppBA is just .239 and that has shown in his low WHIPs. He knows how to throw strikes with four pitches, he rarely walks batters, and hitters have a hard time squaring up against him. Other than a slight flyball tilt that could lead to some home runs, this is the kind of package you look for in a No. 3 starter. In four minor league seasons, his ERA is 2.77 with a 1.18 WHIP in 400.1 IP.
That’s a nice scouting report but some guys never make the successful transition from the minors to the majors and thus far, Flaherty has been getting whacked. In 13 innings, Flaherty has been tagged for 16 hits and 11 runs with three of those hits leaving the park. He was taken yard in all three starts (at SD, at SF and at home) and will now pitch in a bandbox. That aforementioned fly-ball tilt has been a problem and so has his 1.65 WHIP after three starts. Furthermore. the Reds saw him in St. Louis, whacked him and will now see him for the second time in less than a week. Chances are that Flaherty gets hit hard again because his confidence can’t be high and batters are having no trouble at all picking up what he’s trying to do. This is a fragile rookie right now.
Another unknown by the name of Jackson Stephens will oppose Flaherty. Stephens has only made one career start, which came back in July where he struck out eight across five innings. He was called up in September where he has made three appearances out of the bullpen with a maximum of 32 pitches. It is hard to envision him going deep into this game but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. The Reds will use a bunch of relievers here if need be or maybe Stephens will be extended a bit. Either way, this bet is all about attacking Flaherty and getting behind these dangerous teams in the role of the spoiler.
PHILADELPHIA +156 over Los Angeles
As the final 12 to 13 games of the season wind down, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have the best record in the NL unless they lose a bunch and the Nationals win something like 10 of their last 13 games. The point is that the Dodgers can relax a bit after putting the Nationals away last weekend. With a comfortable lead and virtually nothing in doubt, now is the time to for the Dodgers to stay sharp, avoid extra inning games and set their rotation up the way they want it for the first playoff series. The Dodgers are absolutely vulnerable to losses, especially against such a good starter like Aaron Nola.
Nola faces a Dodgers offense that has has slowed way down in August and September where they are averaging just 3.0 runs per game with a .212 BA and .657 OPS. Eight of Nola's last nine home starts have resulted in dominant starts. In 12 home starts this season he owns a 3.01 ERA/3.21 xERA split and 1.03 WHIP. Nola has put up some of the best results of any starter in MLB when he pitches at home and those elite-level stats have been supported by excellent skills too with 10.4 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9 and a 51% groundball rate. Taking back a price like this at home with Nola is as good as it gets, especially against what appears to be a disinterested visitor.
Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has struggled since joining the Dodgers, as in seven starts he is just 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Of those seven starts, he has thrown a dominant start in two while throwing a disaster in three. Darvish’s 40%/23%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split increases his risk at this park. While Yu Darvish is very capable of throwing a gem here, it is Aaron Nola who is slaying lineups these days while Darvish has been hit and miss. A more motivated Phillies’ squad at home with the better starter at such a sweet price gets this call.
ATLANTA +186 over Washington
If we’re attacking the Dodgers due to complacency, we must apply that to the Nationals too, as they will easily win the NL East and easily finish second overall in the NL. it is now a waiting game for the playoffs to start but don’t tell that to Dusty Baker, who would rather win a meaningless game in September by working his best pitcher to the bone, then worry about having said pitcher fresh and ready to go in round one. We’ll see if Dusty has learned his lesson, as he pushed Max Scherzer to 116 pitches in his last start in under six innings against these same Braves, who tagged Scherzer for seven runs. Current Braves have seen Scherzer a ton and have had success against him because they put the ball in play. While both Scherzer and Baker are gamers, we can’t imagine this start is for the purpose of proving anything or getting Max a victory. Scherzer may be destined for another five or six innings but we can live with anything because the price is so good and Atlanta’s starter is a stud in the making.
Luiz Gohera will make his third major league start after getting whacked in his first start and dominating in his second. Pitchers making their debuts are extremely unpredictable because of nerves, anticipation, excitement and all the other things that go with making it to the big show. We never put much emphasis on a poor debut it paid off when we backed Gohera against these Nationals last time out. We'll come right back on him here.
This hard-throwing lefty has always had the ingredients to be a stud and we saw evidence of it in his last start. Gohara can reach the 96-98 mph range with his fastball from his three-quarter arm slot. It is a legitimate plus pitch and he’s done a nice job of throwing strikes with it. Adding to his effectiveness is his slider which is now considered a plus pitch as well. It misses bats due to its late break. Gohara is aided by a deceptive delivery which makes him even more dangerous. He has vaulted up prospect charts, as he’s starting to put everything together. In the minors at Triple A before the call-up, Gohara was whiffing 12.2 batters per nine innings while holding the opposition to a .219 average. He’s struck out 12 batter in 10 innings thus far and looked so much better in his second start than he did in his first. Knowing now that he can get MLB batters adds to his confidence and we’re more than thrilled to get him at home at this price against anyone.
Chicago +196 over HOUSTON
Situational betting is one part of our criteria but it doesn’t apply often to MLB because there are 162 games in a season and these players are trained not to get too high or too low. However, one cannot take the human element out of anything and in that regard, we cannot overstate the euphoria a team feels when they finally clinch a playoff spot after such a long and grueling schedule.
On Sunday, the Astronauts with Justin Verlander on the hill, clinched the AL West crown and there was a big celebration that probably lasted well into the night. When the Astros traded for Justin Verlander less than three weeks ago, they envisioned days just like that. Verlander struck out 10 over seven innings in his first home start for Houston in what the media is referring to a storybook clinching game. The Astros acquired Verlander from Detroit on Aug. 31, just minutes before the deadline for players to be eligible for postseason play. He had made two starts on the road before his Minute Maid Park debut. After a clinching win that was both emotional and celebratory, the Astronauts had a day off yesterday to digest it. They may need another day or two to get back into focus, as an emotional letdown is almost inevitable.
We also like the pitching matchup here, as Colin McHugh is average on his best day while Lucas Giolito is the South Side’s ace of the future and has not looked a bit out of place in his first five MLB starts (2.56 ERA). Giolito is the real and this is both a great spot and price to bet against the Astronauts. The White Sox have been hot with the bats recently, averaging 5.5 runs per game with a .821 OPS in September.
CINCINNATI +100 over St. Louis
The Cardinals Wild Card hopes are hanging by a thread, which is more than enough motivation for the Reds to put this hated rival out of their misery. The Reds continue to be a serious threat at home (39-36) while the Cards are 35-40 on the road.
Jack Flaherty has made three starts since being called up in September and while the scouting reports were good, the results have not been. The scouting report said that the 21-year-old right-hander started the year at Double-A, had great success, and then pitched 85 innings at Triple-A Memphis in the tough Pacific Coast League. Didn't matter, as he pitched well there too with a decent strikeout rate while his walk rate only rose slightly. Flaherty stands 6'4" and weighs 205 pounds. The former first-rounder has a solid four-pitch mix and he throws strikes. So while none of his pitches are truly plus, and thus he is not likely to become an ace, he has a very good chance of reaching his ceiling as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. He knows how to pitch, his mechanics are repeatable, and he has shown consistent success all the way up the minor league ladder. His fastball only reaches the low-90s mph, but he knows how to mix in his curve, slider and changeup to keep batters off balance. For his minor league career his oppBA is just .239 and that has shown in his low WHIPs. He knows how to throw strikes with four pitches, he rarely walks batters, and hitters have a hard time squaring up against him. Other than a slight flyball tilt that could lead to some home runs, this is the kind of package you look for in a No. 3 starter. In four minor league seasons, his ERA is 2.77 with a 1.18 WHIP in 400.1 IP.
That’s a nice scouting report but some guys never make the successful transition from the minors to the majors and thus far, Flaherty has been getting whacked. In 13 innings, Flaherty has been tagged for 16 hits and 11 runs with three of those hits leaving the park. He was taken yard in all three starts (at SD, at SF and at home) and will now pitch in a bandbox. That aforementioned fly-ball tilt has been a problem and so has his 1.65 WHIP after three starts. Furthermore. the Reds saw him in St. Louis, whacked him and will now see him for the second time in less than a week. Chances are that Flaherty gets hit hard again because his confidence can’t be high and batters are having no trouble at all picking up what he’s trying to do. This is a fragile rookie right now.
Another unknown by the name of Jackson Stephens will oppose Flaherty. Stephens has only made one career start, which came back in July where he struck out eight across five innings. He was called up in September where he has made three appearances out of the bullpen with a maximum of 32 pitches. It is hard to envision him going deep into this game but we’re not going to concern ourselves with that. The Reds will use a bunch of relievers here if need be or maybe Stephens will be extended a bit. Either way, this bet is all about attacking Flaherty and getting behind these dangerous teams in the role of the spoiler.
PHILADELPHIA +156 over Los Angeles
As the final 12 to 13 games of the season wind down, the Los Angeles Dodgers will have the best record in the NL unless they lose a bunch and the Nationals win something like 10 of their last 13 games. The point is that the Dodgers can relax a bit after putting the Nationals away last weekend. With a comfortable lead and virtually nothing in doubt, now is the time to for the Dodgers to stay sharp, avoid extra inning games and set their rotation up the way they want it for the first playoff series. The Dodgers are absolutely vulnerable to losses, especially against such a good starter like Aaron Nola.
Nola faces a Dodgers offense that has has slowed way down in August and September where they are averaging just 3.0 runs per game with a .212 BA and .657 OPS. Eight of Nola's last nine home starts have resulted in dominant starts. In 12 home starts this season he owns a 3.01 ERA/3.21 xERA split and 1.03 WHIP. Nola has put up some of the best results of any starter in MLB when he pitches at home and those elite-level stats have been supported by excellent skills too with 10.4 K’s/9, 2.4 BB’s/9 and a 51% groundball rate. Taking back a price like this at home with Nola is as good as it gets, especially against what appears to be a disinterested visitor.
Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has struggled since joining the Dodgers, as in seven starts he is just 3-3 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Of those seven starts, he has thrown a dominant start in two while throwing a disaster in three. Darvish’s 40%/23%/37% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split increases his risk at this park. While Yu Darvish is very capable of throwing a gem here, it is Aaron Nola who is slaying lineups these days while Darvish has been hit and miss. A more motivated Phillies’ squad at home with the better starter at such a sweet price gets this call.
ATLANTA +186 over Washington
If we’re attacking the Dodgers due to complacency, we must apply that to the Nationals too, as they will easily win the NL East and easily finish second overall in the NL. it is now a waiting game for the playoffs to start but don’t tell that to Dusty Baker, who would rather win a meaningless game in September by working his best pitcher to the bone, then worry about having said pitcher fresh and ready to go in round one. We’ll see if Dusty has learned his lesson, as he pushed Max Scherzer to 116 pitches in his last start in under six innings against these same Braves, who tagged Scherzer for seven runs. Current Braves have seen Scherzer a ton and have had success against him because they put the ball in play. While both Scherzer and Baker are gamers, we can’t imagine this start is for the purpose of proving anything or getting Max a victory. Scherzer may be destined for another five or six innings but we can live with anything because the price is so good and Atlanta’s starter is a stud in the making.
Luiz Gohera will make his third major league start after getting whacked in his first start and dominating in his second. Pitchers making their debuts are extremely unpredictable because of nerves, anticipation, excitement and all the other things that go with making it to the big show. We never put much emphasis on a poor debut it paid off when we backed Gohera against these Nationals last time out. We'll come right back on him here.
This hard-throwing lefty has always had the ingredients to be a stud and we saw evidence of it in his last start. Gohara can reach the 96-98 mph range with his fastball from his three-quarter arm slot. It is a legitimate plus pitch and he’s done a nice job of throwing strikes with it. Adding to his effectiveness is his slider which is now considered a plus pitch as well. It misses bats due to its late break. Gohara is aided by a deceptive delivery which makes him even more dangerous. He has vaulted up prospect charts, as he’s starting to put everything together. In the minors at Triple A before the call-up, Gohara was whiffing 12.2 batters per nine innings while holding the opposition to a .219 average. He’s struck out 12 batter in 10 innings thus far and looked so much better in his second start than he did in his first. Knowing now that he can get MLB batters adds to his confidence and we’re more than thrilled to get him at home at this price against anyone.
Chicago +196 over HOUSTON
Situational betting is one part of our criteria but it doesn’t apply often to MLB because there are 162 games in a season and these players are trained not to get too high or too low. However, one cannot take the human element out of anything and in that regard, we cannot overstate the euphoria a team feels when they finally clinch a playoff spot after such a long and grueling schedule.
On Sunday, the Astronauts with Justin Verlander on the hill, clinched the AL West crown and there was a big celebration that probably lasted well into the night. When the Astros traded for Justin Verlander less than three weeks ago, they envisioned days just like that. Verlander struck out 10 over seven innings in his first home start for Houston in what the media is referring to a storybook clinching game. The Astros acquired Verlander from Detroit on Aug. 31, just minutes before the deadline for players to be eligible for postseason play. He had made two starts on the road before his Minute Maid Park debut. After a clinching win that was both emotional and celebratory, the Astronauts had a day off yesterday to digest it. They may need another day or two to get back into focus, as an emotional letdown is almost inevitable.
We also like the pitching matchup here, as Colin McHugh is average on his best day while Lucas Giolito is the South Side’s ace of the future and has not looked a bit out of place in his first five MLB starts (2.56 ERA). Giolito is the real and this is both a great spot and price to bet against the Astronauts. The White Sox have been hot with the bats recently, averaging 5.5 runs per game with a .821 OPS in September.
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