Big Al 5* GOM
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over New England. Although the Patriots are in a 'must-win' situation, it doesn't follow that they will automatically cover the spread. Indeed, the oddsmakers have over-compensated for New England's desperate strait, as this line is about 10 points different than what it would have been six weeks ago. Buffalo and New England played in early November, and the Patriots won 20-10 as a 3.5-point favorite, yet have now been installed as a ROAD favorite of a touchdown. Perhaps this would be understandable if Buffalo had thrown in the towel after being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn't happened. The Bills have been extremely competitive the past two weeks: Buffalo lost 31-27 to the Jets on December 14 as an 8-point underdog, and upset Denver last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Granted, New England has looked great the past two weeks, but its competition was the Raiders (one of the NFL's worst teams) and the Cardinals, who didn't play with their best players after clinching their division earlier in the month. Three weeks ago, New England struggled mightily to defeat a poor Seattle club, 24-21, as a 7-point favorite. This season, NFL teams are 23-16 when playing with same-season revenge, including 14-7 ATS as an underdog. Also, since December 2005, NFL teams are an awful 0-17 ATS on the road off a 23-point win, if they're NOT getting 3+ points, and are matched up against an opponent that's also off a win. With New England in off a 47-7 win over Arizona, the Patriots fall squarely within our 0-17 ATS angle. Buffalo also falls into 92-37 and 34-9 systems of mine which play on certain home dogs off road wins, and a 33-7 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine. 5* NFL Game of the Month on the Bills. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Buffalo Bills + the points over New England. Although the Patriots are in a 'must-win' situation, it doesn't follow that they will automatically cover the spread. Indeed, the oddsmakers have over-compensated for New England's desperate strait, as this line is about 10 points different than what it would have been six weeks ago. Buffalo and New England played in early November, and the Patriots won 20-10 as a 3.5-point favorite, yet have now been installed as a ROAD favorite of a touchdown. Perhaps this would be understandable if Buffalo had thrown in the towel after being eliminated from the playoffs, but that hasn't happened. The Bills have been extremely competitive the past two weeks: Buffalo lost 31-27 to the Jets on December 14 as an 8-point underdog, and upset Denver last week as a 6.5-point underdog. Granted, New England has looked great the past two weeks, but its competition was the Raiders (one of the NFL's worst teams) and the Cardinals, who didn't play with their best players after clinching their division earlier in the month. Three weeks ago, New England struggled mightily to defeat a poor Seattle club, 24-21, as a 7-point favorite. This season, NFL teams are 23-16 when playing with same-season revenge, including 14-7 ATS as an underdog. Also, since December 2005, NFL teams are an awful 0-17 ATS on the road off a 23-point win, if they're NOT getting 3+ points, and are matched up against an opponent that's also off a win. With New England in off a 47-7 win over Arizona, the Patriots fall squarely within our 0-17 ATS angle. Buffalo also falls into 92-37 and 34-9 systems of mine which play on certain home dogs off road wins, and a 33-7 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine. 5* NFL Game of the Month on the Bills. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.
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