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THE RED SHEET
OCTOBER 5, 2024 VOLUME 56 - NUMBER 6
Louisiana-Lafayette 49 - SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI 20 - (7:00 EDT) -- Line opened at Louisiana-Lafayette minus 15?,
and is now minus 15. Hey any line movement in our direction, regardless of its size, is most welcome,
thus an appreciation for this slight nudge. Fact of the matter is that the Eagles of SouthernMiss are
rudderless, after losing both QBs (Edwards & Wiles) from a year ago, resulting in s 1-3 start SU, as
well as 0-3 ATS while ranking 119th, 123rd, & 122nd in total, scoring, & rushing offense. LaLa, by
comparison, has been superb, topping 32 pts in all 4 games, while ranking 36th & 44th in total offense.
RATING: LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE 89
Tulane 41 - UAB 14 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Tulane minus 14?, and is still minus 14?. We're still kicking ourselves for
not coming on more importantly than a Red Sheet Near Choice, last week, when these Blazers were
destroyed, 41-18, by the Middies of Navy, with the Middies' 22nd-ranked "O" running all over UAB's
116th-ranked "D". Hardly gets any easier here, as the Green Wave of Tulane are cooking, entering
off a pair of 40+ pt efforts (41 & 45 pts, to be exact), including last week's 45-10 whuppin' of SoFla,
with 30-12 FD, 198-26 RY, & 330-175 PY advantages. All the elements are meshing nicely. Greenies.
RATING: TULANE 89
Indiana 45- NORTHWESTERN 13 - (3:30) -- Line opened a Indiana minus 13, and is now minus 13?. What a super
turnaround that these Hoosiers are enjoying, as they came from a 14-24 SU slide, to their current run
of 7-2 ATS, with their misses coming by 6? & 1? pts. And this year, they've posted a 244-65 SU run,
while ranking 9th & 8th in total "O" & total "D", with QB Rourke a solid 11/2 for the year. The Wildcats
will have their hands full in attempting to penetrate Indy "D", as they are averaging only 17.3 ppg,
while entering at 123rd in total offense. Not in the cards to buck this unstoppable Indiana run.
RATING: INDIANA 88
OREGON STATE 45 - Colorado State 14 - (6:30) -- Line opened at Oregon St minus 14, and is now minus 10?.
Apparently the public wasn't all that impressed with the Beavers' 38-21 win over Purdue, with 25-13
FD, 341-263 RY, & 104-53 PY edges, as the spread has moved to a more accommodating figure.
Losing 16 starters, including 10-of-11 on defense has seen Beavs unable to compete fairly with
such power as Oregon (49-14 setback), but can't ignore success against the lesser lights, winning &
covering vs any team not spelled O-r-e-g-o-n . Rams not the best roadsters, while OSt 13-4 ATS host.
RATING: OREGON STATE 88
Southern California 41 - MINNESOTA 17 - (7:30) -- Line opened at Southern California minus 9?, and is now
Southern California by 8. A rarity when Red Sheet Plays are accompanied with friendly line changes,
but somehow that has occurred 3 times on this week's publication. The Gophers & Trojans are both in
off late game success, with Minny a 21-3 4th quarter pt edge over Michigan. Ditto with Troy, which has
made it its modus operandi. As we noted on Pointwise, the Gophers ran only on Nevada, with their only
wins coming vs the statures of Rhode Island & Nevada. Only USC loss was by 3 pts at Michigan.
RATING: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 88
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 27 - New York Jets 17 - (9:30 AM @ Tottenham) -- Line opened at Minnesota minus 2?, and
is still minus 2?. Welcome to London. The Vikings have been a perfect play since the onset of the
pre-season, winning & covering All Seven games, with their 4-0 regular season run, their first such
start since 2016. The Jets, on the other hand, had nearly the same opportunity, after a pair of solid
wins, but could muster just 9 pts & 64 RYs in upset loss to the Broncos. Until things change, there is
no getting off of this profitable horse. With the spot barely under a TD, Minnesota definitely the play.
RATING: MINNESOTA VIKINGS 88
NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Army, Western Mich, Boise St, Navy -- NFL: Cincinnati, Carolina, New OrleansComment
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NEWSLETTER TRACKING THROUGH 9/30
The records here will reflect the lines listed in the newsletters at the time the plays were published. This is for the rated plays, the high-ranking plays, and any type of play worth tracking.
Gridiron Gold Sheet (2nd week we've gotten this season)
NCAA (5-6-0)
NFL (4-4-0)
Bondi Bulletin
2* NCAA (2-1-1)
1* NCAA (5-6-0)
2* NFL (2-1-0)
1* NFL (2-4-0)
CKO
11* (0-0-0)
10* (0-0-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NCAA (Playbook 7-1-1 overall in plays tracked here this week)
5* (4-1-0)
4* (3-2-0)
3* (3-2-0)
Upset pick (1-4-0)
Betcha Didn't Know (1-3-1)
Awesome Angle (4-1-0)
Incredible Stat (1-2-0)
Marc Lawrence Playbook NFL
5* (3-1-0)
4* (2-2-0)
3* (1-3-0)
Pointwise NCAA (6-2 overall in NCAA this week)
1* (6-4-0)
2* (1-4-0)
3* (3-2-0)
4* (5-5-0)
5* (7-3-0)
Pointwise NFL
3* (1-3-0)
4* (2-5-1)
5* (1-7-0)
Power Sweep NCAA
4* (3-2-0)
3* (7-3-0)
2* (4-5-1)
Underdog Play of the Week (4-1-0)
Tech Play of the Week (2-1-0)
Revenge Play of the Week (4-0-0)
Situational Play of the Week (2-2-0)
Series Play of the Week (1-3-0)
Power Sweep NFL
4* (0-4-0)
3* (0-4-0)
2* (3-1-0)
4* Pro Angle (0-0-0)
3* o/u play (2-2-0)
Power Rating POW (1-2-0)
Power Plays
NCAA 4.5* (9-5-0)
NCAA 4* (18-11-2)
NFL 4* (1-3-0)
Red Sheet
90* (0-0-0)
89* (5-5-0)
88* (11-5-0)
NFL 88* (2-2-0)
Sports Reporter
NCAA Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NCAA Best Bets (7-6-0)
NFL Super Best Bets (0-0-0)
NFL Best Bets (2-5-1)
Winning Points (4-0 overall this week)
NCAA 4* (3-2-0)
NCAA 3* (4-1-0)
NFL 4* (1-3-0)
NFL 3* (2-1-1)
King’s Totals Tipsheet (0-5 overall this week)
3* (1-2-0)
2* (3-6-0)
Team Total of the Week
2* (0-2-0)
1* (2-4-0)
Gold Sheet (we've gotten this 3 times this season)
NCAA Key Releases (10-10-0)
NFL Key Releases (6-4-0)
Powers' Ratings NCAA
(can't really track his main plays this year)
Top Computer Play (2-3-0)
Powers' Ratings NFL
3* (0-0-0)
2* (0-0-0)
1* (0-0-0)
Inside the Press Box NCAA
Phil's Best Bets (14-7-0)
Computer Best Bets (11-8-0)
Inside the Press Box NFL
Phil’s Best Bets (3-7-0)
Computer Best Bets (0-0-0)Comment
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Playbook THU Games
Texas State over TROY by 20
These games are called “Fun Belt” but for the Troy Trojans there hasn’t been a lot of joy this season, sitting 1-4 after a terrible 0-3 start that saw them lose the stats battle in each game. But Mr. Brightside has this killer observation; Troy is 1-1 in its last two games and won the stats battle in both. However, bragging about beating North Texas as a road dog falls on deaf Bobcats ears, they’re 2-2 on the field and 4-0 In the Stats. The two-game losing streak is against strong teams in Arizona State and Sam Houston State and that proves the old German adage “Besser als en scheient” (better than it seems) is in play here for the Bobcats. If the language lesson isn’t enough, how about TSU going 6-2 ATS coming off consecutive losses including 3-0 ATS against sub .333 foes. You know how to throw those Euros around. Kind of like how Texas State may throw the Sun Belt around to join the Mountain West.
Sam Houston State over UTEP by 14
Sam Houston acted like a feral street cat last season in its FBS debut, nervous and afraid of everything. That led to a starved for victories 0-8 start before the wins trickled in near the end of ’23. Gradually, after a few feedings that Kat has become relaxed and happy, going 4-1 SUATS in matching their 4-1 overall start including last week’s dramatic buzzer beating FG win over Texas State. Dual threat QB Hunter Watson has completed fewer than 50% of his passes the last two games combined but he has rushed for 221 yards and two scores to make up for it. He faces a UTEP team that is winless and ranked by The Athletic 132nd out of 134 teams. The Miners may have found their QB of the future in Cade McConnell, but a long dusty dig remains for Texas-El Paso to be a winner. They, as of this week, have a future in the Mountain West, having announced they’re leaving Conference USA as reported by multiple outlets. How will C-USA survive the loss of a football heavyweight?
Tampa Bay over ATLANTA by 3
Now we know that Tampa Bay is the Eagles’ Boogeyman. They’ve beaten Philly in five of the last six meetings, including the playoffs last season, and enter tonight's matchup with the Falcons in Atlanta. The Dirty Birds are one of 13 NFL teams sitting at 2-2 after the opening month of the season, one game back of the division-leading Bucs, led by QB Baker Mayfield, who has thrown more TD passes in the league than any signal caller since last season. Tampa arrives at 6-1 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games while cashing in six of its last eight division roadies. Atlanta settles in at 1-5 ATS on Thursdays and 0-5 ATS before a division road game. With the MIDWEEK ALERT reminding us that the Bucs are a bonafide “BOD” (dog with the better offense and better defense), we’ll be on the take tonight.Comment
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