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CKO
11* UCF over Lsu Late CKO score forecast: UCF 35 - Lsu 24 Fiesta Bowl at Glendale, AZ (Tuesday, January 1) Oddsmakers continue to undervalue chemistry-rich, speedy UCF riding a 25-game win skein. Hence, we’re fully content to take a full TD with CFP-dissed Knights, charged-up to finish with back-to-back perfect seasons for first time since Nebraska in 1993-1994 by upsetting an SEC opponent a 2nd straight year in bowls. UCF’s 1st-year HC Josh Heupel (former QB) has reportedly added a few wrinkles for tough, fast-learning 6-3, 230-lb. QB Darriel Mack Jr, who proved he can successfully replace injured star McKenzie Milton when he engineered a major comeback in the 56-41 win over Memphis, outscoring Tigers 35-3 after H. The LSU pass D misses the services of lock-down CB Greedy Williams, who’s sitting it out to prepare for the NFL Draft. Meanwhile, UCF D (19.5 ppg; 7th in TFL) can stack the box vs. Tigers’ power run-oriented O, since QB Joe Burrow (only 12 TDP; pass game ranked 80th) won’t be mistaken for Bayou Bengal legend Y.A. Tittle. UCF rises to 18-7-1 vs. spread last 26, as LSU falls to 2-6 vs. spread last 8 bowls.
10 *SEATTLE over Arizona Late CKO score forecast: *SEATTLE 27 - Arizona 9 (Sunday, December 30) The pressure is off at CenturyLink Field as Seattle is safely into the playoffs as an NFC wild card with one week to spare thanks to last week’s win over the Chiefs. But the obligatory rests for key players is not likely to be as much of a negative for the Seahawks as other teams because of HC Pete Carroll’s notorious rah-rah and the accompanying uplift. Those tactics have spurred Seattle to success in these sorts of spots before as well as in preseason, where Carroll’s teams have been a consistent overachiever in August. With several backups excited for their chance to play, Seattle’s intensity level should be high. And it could be a big day for backup QB Brett Hundley, who figures to fill in for a resting Russell Wilson. He likely faces his UCLA successor, Josh Rosen, struggling in his rookie campaign with the Big Red (1-5 vs. line last six) not making any noticeable progress in December.
10* OKLAHOMA STATE over Missouri Late CKO score forecast: OKLAHOMA STATE 41 - Missouri 38 Liberty Bowl at Memphis, TN (Monday, December 31)A curious mix, this Ok State side, which could only get to .500 this season but nonetheless owns three wins over teams ranked in the Top 25 and pushed Final Four Oklahoma to the limit in the November 10 “Bedlam” game at Norman, losing only 48-47. Having risen up big to knock off the likes of Boise State, Texas, and West Virginia (with Will Grier), plus that near-miss vs. the Sooners, all suggest the Cowboys can trade points with anybody. Especially as sr. QB Taylor Cornelius took advantage of his one shot as a starter, passing for 3642 yards and 28 TDs while running for another 10 TDs in another potent Mike Gundy attack that tallied a healthy 38 ppg. Outscoring potent NFLbound Mizzou QB Drew Lock will be a chore, but the Tigers have exhibited bully tendencies the past two years for HC Barry Odom, whose troops fell well short vs. another Big 12 entry, Texas, in the Texas Bowl LY.
10* NC STATE over Texas A&M Late CKO score forecast: NC STATE 34 - Texas A&M 24 Gator Bowl at Jacksonville, FL (Monday, December 31) CKO scouts urge us to take rising price (now a full 7) with NC State highly-motivated to reach DD wins, which would be the first time in Raleigh since 2002. Even with star WR Kelvin Harmon bypassing bowl to prepare for NFL Draft, the Wolfpack’s prolific, all-ACC 1st-team QB Ryan Finley (59 career TDP) owns enough big-time weapons (like Jakobi Meyers with 89 grabs) to burn a Texas A&M secondary, ranking 119th in pass D, allowing 271 ypg. And while Aggies own the more recognizable RB in Trayveon Williams, NC State is well-equipped to maintain sufficient run-pass balance behind suddenly-hot RB Reggie Gallaspy II, who’s motored for 349 yards & 7 TDs L2Gs. NC State’s shrewd 5th-year mentor Dave Doeren, gunning for his 3rd straight bowl win, covered 4 of 5 meetings vs. Aggies’ 1st-year HC Jimbo Fisher, when he was Florida State head man. A&M really hasn’t shown much KO power except vs. outmanned non-conference foes, which isn’t the case here. Note, in Aggies’ 38-24 win over Ole Miss, game was tied at 21 in the 4th Q.
10* OHIO STATE over Washington Late CKO score forecast: OHIO STATE 38 - Washington 21 Rose Bowl at Pasadena, CA (Tuesday, January 1) Ohio State should be ready to impose its will on Washington in the “Grandaddy of them All” Rose Bowl Tuesday. The Buckeyes have an arsenal of weapons on offense that should go over, under, around and through the Husky defense. Ohio State posted some impressive wins in rolling to a 12-1 mark, knifing through the Big 10 schedule that culminated in a 62-39 win against the then No. 1-ranked Michigan defense and an easy 45-24 victory over Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship. QB Haskins threw for 4580 yds. with a 47-8 (!) TD-int. ratio, completing 70% of his passes while utilizing a bevy of targets (7 different receivers caught 20 or more passes). Buckeye RBs J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber combined for 1887 yds. rushing and 14 TDs running behind an experienced OL featuring a pair of all-Big Ten future NFL draftees. Washington underachieved TY, as QB Browning and RB Gaskin both fell short of their 2017 production. The Pac 12 is a miserable 2-14 vs. the points in bowl games the last 2+ seasons!
NINE-RATED GAMES: NORTHWESTERN (+7) over Utah (Holiday Bowl)—Both have offensive injuries but give Wildcat replacements the edge of Pac-12 rep Utes...TEXAS (+13) over Georgia (Sugar Bowl)—Texas HC Tom Herman’s record as an underdog (12-2 in 4 years at Houston & Texas) and playmaking soph QB Ehlinger (25 TDP, 13 TDR) point to Longhorns.
TOTALS: UNDER (47½) in the NY Jets-New England game—With a first-round bye on the line, expect Belichick to to coax a playoff-level effort from his D; Pats 6-2 “under” L8 at Gillette...UNDER(41) in the Chicago-Minnesota game—These two both 4-1 “under” last 5. “Under” is 10-4 last 14 when these two meet (5-2 L7 played in Minneapolis).Comment
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Joe Gavazzi’s 2018 NFL Pointspread Prognosis
2018/2019 Playoff IssueCFB National Championship Game & NFL Playoffs
With the numbers in mind from “Keep on Trackin’” above, I am presenting this Playoff Chart to you with the TEAMS RANKED BY NET RUNNING YARDS.
Consistent with years gone by, any preferred team in a game will be UNDERLINED or in RED.
Monday, January 7th
CFB National Championship Game
Levi’s Stadium Santa Clara, CA
Clemson (+6) vs. Alabama 8:00 PM ET ESPN
A strange thing happened on my way to counting chickens of a 26-14 ATS Bowl Season with ratings on every game. Ohio State left the backdoor wide open for Washington to crawl in to get the cover in a game the Buckeyes controlled with a lead of 28-3 with 12 minutes remaining. That was one of few downers in the 15-3 ATS finish to the Bowl Season this past weekend. With the CFB thinking in fine form, I look to close out the season in style with this selection on the Cats as Dogs. It is well documented that this is the 4thconsecutive season these two will meet in the Playoffs. Saban holds a 2-1 SU, but 1-2 ATS in the meetings including last year’s Semifinal 24-6 victory. That was a rare post season failure for Dabo who had entered that contest with an 8-0 ATS Bowl and Playoff record since 2012. One of the major edges that Bama holds over many of its opponents is the fear factor presented by their persona. If familiarity breeds contempt, the revenge factor will have a major influence on the outcome of this game. Clearly, Swinney has no fear of the Big Stage and is quite possibly even more motivated (if possible) because he is an Alabama Alum. Nit picking from the superlative statistics across the board from each of these two would be a fruitless task. Plenty of respect for Tide QB Tua but unless Tigers Frosh QB Lawrence suddenly become infected with the deer in the headlights syndrome, Tua may not be the better signal caller on the field. This TD impost is the same as it would have been opening night. Some of that, both then and now, is the continuing over ration for the perception of Alabama’s excellence. In recent years, however, Clemson has proven they are the equal of the Tide. With a +107 AFP for the year to a +50 AFP for the Crimson Tide, there is further reason to believe this impost remains bloated. No surprise to this bureau if Clemson wins the game outright.
NFL Playoffs
Saturday, January 5th
Wildcard Playoffs
Houston Texans (-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts 4:35 PM ET ESPN
The Colts had “NO GOOD LUCK” in 2017 as their signal caller recuperated from injury. With his return and the addition of new HC Reich, (former Philly OC), the Colts transformed from an offense that averaged 16/285 to one that averaged 27/386. They punched the final Playoff ticket of the season last Sunday night with their 33-17 win at Tennessee in which they outrushed the Titans 158-93. It was a similar type of turnaround season for Houston who had drifted to an identical 4-12 SU record last year when injuries struck across the board. It looked like a potential repeat of that type of season when the Texans began the year 0-3 SU, ATS. Beginning with their Game #4 OT win at Indy, however, fortunes began to turn for Houston. With QB Watson returning to health at the controls, Houston reeled off a 9 game winning streak before the Colts got their revenge on this field on December 9th with a 24-21 victory. Key to the Houston turnaround was an improved defense that went from allowing 27 PPG last year to just 20 PPG this season. Hard to deny the 9-1 SU finish of the Colts (only loss a mysterious 6-0 shutout at Jax). But the superior Houston ground game, which runs an average of 30 times a game for a 126-83 overland edge, combined with a home field where Houston has lost to only Indy in the last 3 months, makes this the odds on spot for Houston to garner the victory.
Seattle Seahawks (+2) at Dallas Cowboys 8:15 PM ET FOX
This is the 1st of 2 Playoff games which features 9-7 SU squads from last year who were winning teams last year but did not make the Playoffs (Detroit was the only team who failed in that role this season). It is also a matchup of teams who enter off consecutive victories to finish the year with 10-6 SU records. When these teams met earlier this season in Seattle, the Seahawks used a +3 net TO margin to garner a 24-13 victory (despite being outrushed 113-66). Last week’s 27-24 squeaker vs. Arizona, closer than the stats would suggest, as Seattle outrushed Arizona 182-85. Dallas, meanwhile, with their own narrow victory vs. NYG was outrushed 143-51. That Seattle dominance at the point of attack has been consistent through the latter part of the season with running numbers in reverse order of 182, 210, 168, 214, 168, 173, 273, 154, 176, 155, 190 and 171 dating back to Week #3. Respect the own powerful ground game of the Cowboys which averages 123 RYPG. The Seahawks, however, appear unstoppable overland and with edges on the sideline in Carroll over Garrett and at the signal callers spot with Wilson over Prescott, I will call for the upset in Big D tonight.
Sunday, January 6th
Wildcard Playoffs
Baltimore Ravens (-2) vs. LA Chargers 1:05 PM ET CBS
In a major statistical anomaly, Baltimore survived the pressure of “win and in” last week with their 26-24 victory over Cleveland. That narrow margin came DESPITE THE FACT THEY HELD A 296-50 OVERLAND EDGE AND HAD A +2 NET TO MARGIN. That combination will consistently result in an over 90% chance for a pointspread victory. NOT FOR US LAST SUNDAY! When these two met earlier this season, Baltimore was dominant over the Chargers with a 159-51 overland edge. Respect is given to the fact the Chargers have been solid all season behind the leadership of QB Rivers and HC Lynn. Baltimore, however, has been a hungry Playoff team since the 1st week in August. They shifted it into another gear since the insertion of QB Jackson following their bye week. Since that time, they have gone 6-1 SU rushing in reverse order for 296, 159, 242, 198, 207, 242 and 265. Along with the West to East time change for the Chargers in a 1:00 PM ET start, it will be Baltimore all day long.
Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Chicago Bears 4:40 PM ET NBC
Last year, the Bears went 5-11 SU making it their 4th consecutive season with 6 or less wins. Enter new HC Nagy (former OC at KC) and the emergence of QB Trubisky. Along with a defense that allowed just 18/299 including only 80 RPG on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears stormed to a 9-1 SU, ATS finish. That included shutting the door on the season for the Division rival Vikings last week when they outrushed Minn 160-63 in a 24-10 win. Major question here is if the Bears will be caught in the Peter Principle of having reached their goal of the Playoffs after such a recent history of failure. Philly is clearly at the other end of the spectrum. A magical season all came together for the Eagles last year with a 16-3 SU record culminating in a 41-33 Super Bowl win against New England. Much like last season, QB Foles has stepped in for injured QB Wentz in leading the Eagles to a 5-1 SU stretch drive which climaxed with a “win and in” scenario last Sunday with a 24-0 whitewash of the Redskins. This year, it is clearly the Bears who are going through that magical season. At this price point, however, the Eagles will surely feel disrespected and thus motivated to continue their late season surge behind last year’s Super Bowl MVP. Do not expect the Defending Champs to go quietly.
Following a Holiday hiatus, Roger Larson returns to grace these pages with his NFL Playoff Teaser of the Week. As always, win or lose, we welcome his wit and charm to these pages.
BONGO'S 6-POINT TEASER FOR PLAYOFF WEEK ONE--
SEATTLE +8 1/2 AND PHILLY +12
If I win this one I will be back with one more pick. If I lose I will be out behind the barn trying to warm up over a winter fire and drinking Pabst Blue Ribbon with my neighbor Grover Stump. Grover doesn't have a TV and thinks football is stupid. He says, "You hurt your knee for life and how you gonna work the farm? Huh?" I don't argue with Grover, especially after we have been pounding PBR's for 3/4 hours.
Even though the line indicates that Sea/Dal are roughly equal in talent I believe the Seabags and their hysterical coach, Pistol Pete Carol, will prevail. Why do I believe this? I have no idea. I just like Seattle to win the game and I would take +3 in a heartbeat if it ever shows up. Am I making this pick because I dislike the car dealer owner of the Cowgirls? Maybe. What is there to like about him unless you are a Dallas' area plastic surgeon or maybe a part-time hooker/cheerleader?
The Eaglets had a disastrous season after their magic SB win but they sneaked in here (thanks to the hapless Viqueens) by winning 5 of their last 6 and getting in the playoffs with 7 losses! I am going to follow their momentum against this very strong Bears' outfit and look for a tight game. If I get crushed, I have been crushed before. (Usually by a woman.).
Thanks for doing business with us.
Sincerely,
Joe
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Joe Gavazzi’s 2018 NFL Pointspread Prognosis2018/2019 Playoff Issue 2CFB National Championship Game & NFL Playoffs“Keep on Trackin’ ”Regular Season Final Stats 2018
Play any team with ANY positive Net TO margin of 2 or more in a game
Last week, for the first time in my distant memory, road dogs were a perfect 4-0 ATS in Round #1. Remember when Round #2 home teams were like money in the bank. That has all changed as well. In the last 15 years, the Round #2 Playoff record for road dogs is 33-24 ATS. Buyer beware… if you are thinking of a Round #2 rebound by the “better rested home team”. On the OVER/UNDER front, the linemaker posted an average total of “43” for last week’s game (3 points below the league average for this season). He was right! The games went 3-1 UNDER. This week, undeterred by that low scoring effort, the 4 games have an average opening line of 49.5 PPG.ROAD TEAMS ON A ROLL
From a longer term perspective, I note that 5 of the 8 Playoff teams (KC, LA Rams, New England, Philly and New Orleans) are returning to the Playoffs from last year. That makes the newcomers to this round as Indy (4-12 SU LY), Dallas (9-7 SU LY), LAC (9-7 SU LY) as the 3 newcomers to this round. Note that, of this week’s Playoff teams, ONLY INDY HAD A LOSING RECORD FROM LAST YEAR. Considering the linemakers’ projections for the season, note that ALL 8 PLAYOFF TEAMS EQUALED OR SURPASSED THEIR PROJECTED WIN TOTAL OF THIS SEASON. Finally, all teams, EXCEPT last year’s Super Bowl participants, New England and Philly, had better records this season than last.
Consistent with years gone by, any preferred team in a game will be UNDERLINED.
Saturday, January 12th
Divisional Playoffs
Indianapolis Colts (+5-) at Kansas City Chiefs 4:35 PM ET
Typical season for an Andy Reid coached KC team. After a 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS season start, the Chiefs finished 2-4 SU, ATS. Reasons for the decline included bloated imposts, a “bigger book” on QB Mahomes (66%, 50 TDP), the worst Playoff defense at 26/406 while allowing 132/5.2 overland, and the suspension of RB Hunt. Looking for a bounce on what many consider to be a tough home field. Consider that the Chiefs are 0-6 SU at home in recent Playoff games. Combined with the fact that the Chiefs are now 1-11 SU in their last 11 Post Season forays and it makes a tough sell for the home chalk. Not necessarily eager to line up with a road team who was victorious last week as a Round #1 Playoff dog, a win which followed a 4-12 SU season. QB Luck, however, has made a strong case for the importance of a quality, veteran NFL signal caller. After a 1-5 SU beginning, Luck led the Chiefs to a 10-1 SU mark since October 14th, with the only loss a hard to explain 6-0 defeat to Jax on December 2nd. Last week, Indy played outstanding on defense holding Houston to just 322 yards, many in garbage time. Overland, an emerging Colt OL led the way to a 200-105 RY edge led by RB Mack with 148 RY. Maybe the Chiefs got back on track with their final game 35-30 win vs. Ok. But that may have been more about a +3 TO edge as opposed to a 409-292 yardage edge. Looks like another live Playoff road dog who is in the better current form, has the advantage of a veteran signal caller, against a Chiefs team whose Playoff history is clearly working against them. IF THE COLTS CASH TODAY, IT WILL RUN THE RECORD OF PLAYOFF DOGS TO 15-1 ATS.
Dallas Cowboys (+7) at LA Rams 8:15 PM ET
Riding one last road dog! Rams began the year on fire. With a 4-0 SU, ATS start in which they scored 33 or more points averaging 35 PPG, all that while holding their opponents to just 17 PPG, the offensive fireworks lit up the betting windows making them a 7 point favorite at Seattle when they next took the field. The result was what would become a typical 9-3 SU, 4-8 ATS finish for the Rams as they struggled to overcome imposts of 7 or more points in all but 3 of those final 12 games. Do final game blowouts against Arizona and San Francisco by a combined score of 79-41 signal a turnaround? Or is it more relevant that, in facing Playoff teams Seattle, New Orleans, Seattle, KC, Chicago and Philly since October 7th, they are 3-2 SU with no victory by more than 5 points. Dallas would certainly qualify as a team of that ilk. Last week they outrushed Seattle 164-73 holding the best rushing team (160 RYPG) well below their average. That clearly bodes well as they look to lock down the Rams run game averaging 139/4.9, the best of the remaining 8 Playoff teams. The 3 game winning streak appears to be a positive for Dallas owner Jerry Jones. He has bought a $250 million dollar yacht to celebrate the Cowboys 8-1 SU surge (following their 3-5 SU first half of the season). Only a 23-0 loss to Indy on December 16th has interfered with that Dallas run since November 5th. In that time, victories have included Philly (twice), New Orleans and Seattle last week. And the Rams do not appear to be any better than those teams, especially when facing quality opponents.
Sunday, January 13th
Divisional Playoffs
New England Patriots (-4) vs. LA Chargers 1:05 PM ET
Last week, the Chargers parlayed a +2 net TO margin and the shoddy play of rookie QB Jackson for a 23-17 win. That added to their outstanding road record which has seen them go 9-1 SU, ATS in road or neutral games this season. That includes recent road wins at Seattle, Pittsburgh, KC and Baltimore last week, as outright underdog wins against Playoff teams. This has clearly been the best season in recent memory for the 13-4 SU Chargers. Veteran QB Rivers is certainly an able signal caller aided by his vast experience. All, however, is not “peaches and cream” for the Chargers this afternoon. They got the benefit of a relatively mild weekend in Baltimore. TODAY, HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE MAKING BACK-TO-BACK 1:00 PM ET STARTS playing at Gillette Stadium where the weather is predicted to be in the teens to mid-20s. Home field advantage, and obvious experience edge of New England is a major advantage in this contest. New England has now qualified for a 1st Round bye for a 9th consecutive seasons. In addition, they have won 15 consecutive home games, with 7 of those 8 home victories by 7 or more points. Simply cannot buck that type of edge with the B&B combination.
New Orleans Saints (-8-) vs Philadelphia Eagles 4:40 PM ET
Nearly impossible to conceive that a team with a -8 net TO margin has advanced to the 2nd Round of the NFL Playoffs! Last week, in a closely fought game in Chicago, where they were both outrushed 65-42 and outpassed 291-58, the Eagles overcame a -2 net TO margin for a 16-15 “double doink” win vs. the Bears. Maybe it has been the pride of a Super Bowl winner that has led to the 4-0 SU streak to close the season (including LAR, Houston and Chicago). Maybe it is the coaching of HC Pedersen, or maybe it is the insertion of QB Foles, last year’s Super Bowl MVP, who has authored the 4-0 SU run and now has a 10-2 TRGS since late December of last season. Among the 7 losses for these Eagles was a 48-7 smack down on this field November 8th. In that contest, New Orleans parlayed a +3 net TO margin and a 173-58 overland edge along with a 546-196 total yardage edge for that 48-7 victory. Though the Eagles rush defense is solid in allowing foes a Playoff best 21 rush attempts and just 95 RYPG, their own rush defense is averaging that same amount. The Saints magical 13-3 SU season has been authored in part by QB Brees who completed 74% C with a 32/6 ratio. Not given enough credit is the coaching of veteran HC Payton. The run game that has the best margin of the remaining 8 teams at 127 to 80 RYPG or Saints defense allowing just 22/349 all add up to solid reasons why the Saints get this comfortable victory today and BREAK THE STRANGLEHOLD OF 14-1 ATS OF PLAYOFF DOGS ENTERING THIS WEEK.
BONGO'S 6-PT. PRO PLAYOFF TEASER OF THE WEEK--
CHIEFS +1 and the RAMS -1
This is based on the Monday afternoon lines. This is as obvious as it gets. Taking the rested hometown power teams versus the 1st round winners. Duh. My 7-year-old granddaughter who knows nothing about sports betting but is a good student could have figured this out. In fact, maybe I asked her!!!
Will I be surprised if one (or both) of these two visitors wins the game? No. But this is how I bet and that is how I must roll around here.
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