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Traditional powerhouse Tennessee travels to LA to welcome Rick Neuheisel back to college football. Neuheisel returns to his alma mater and brings offensive mastermind Norm Chow with him as offensive coordinator. The Bruins lost starting QB Ben Olson to a season-ending foot injury early in fall camp, and JC transfer Kevin Craft gets the opening start. UCLA's defense finished last season ranked 14th in the nation against the run, and they will have to have a good day against Volunteers RB Adrian Foster and a strong offensive line. The Vols defense was up-and-down last season, but they finished the year with two strong showings against top 25 teams.
The intrigue in this game comes from the public backing the away Volunteers and pushing the line in that direction. We like home dogs at Sports Insights, especially when when they're receiving more than a touchdown in the spread. Tennessee opened as -7 favorites at Pinnacle and other books, but are currently sitting at -7.5 at most books due to receiving over 75% of public bets. We're looking for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow to keep it close and maybe sneak out a win at home, so we're taking the Bruins +7.5.
UCLA +7.5
So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 1.
3-Unit Play. #211 Fresno State (+5) over Rutgers (4 p.m., Monday, Aug. 1)-107
Are you ready for some Monday afternoon football? The Bulldogs of Fresno State have a chance to be a BCS sleeper in the mold of Boise State and Hawaii over the last two years. Fresno returns 10 starters from an offense that finished No. 38 in the country last year. I think they can win this game outright and we’re getting good value on a team that started the season in the Top 25.
Dominic Brando's Inner Circle 2008-09 NFL/NCAA Football Records Grid:
NCAA Top 100 Unit Golden Star Underdog Game of the Week: #211 FRESNO STATE +5/-115 over Rutgers
NCAA Regular 50 Unit Black Diamond Best Bet: #211 FRESNO STATE ML +180 over Rutgers
3* Wyoming --loser
4* Mich St. ---loser
5* Louisville---loser
Upset Game of Week: New Mexico--loser
All from his newsletter. He will be back on track eventually.
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK
RUTGERS over Fresno St by 3
Our eyebrows raised when the preseason polls opened and the Bulldogs
landed a spot in the nation’s Top 25. No disrespect to Pat Hill but the
feeling here is they are not even the best team in their conference.
Hill has done a masterful job with this program, especially in games
outside the conference where he is 26-8-1 ATS. Despite the fact his
Bulldogs are 0-6 ATS in their last six games on weekdays, we respect his
ability to shine in non-conference clashes. While Rutgers may be down
a notch or two in ’08 the fact remains they are a well-coached squad
themselves with Greg Schiano on the sidelines. The Knights’ 6-1 ATS
mark as non-conference chalk, 6-1 ATS log in season openers and 5-1
ATS record in weekday games makes this a tough call.
Tennessee over UCLA by 4
The Volunteers may have lost 14 games the past three seasons but
they still own the best road record of all SEC teams (48-18) since
1992. QB Jonathon Crompton steps in for Erik Ainge knowing the
PAC 10 has had its way against Tennessee of late, going 5-1 ATS in
the last six showdowns. Adding fuel to the fi re is Vol head coach Phil
Fulmer’s decision to suspend starting defensive back Brett Vinson
and defensive tackle Donald Langley due to academic issues. On
the fl ip side, the Bruins have been college football’s BEST home dog
lately, going 8-0 ATS when taking points in Pasadena. They’re also 5-
0 ATS against the SEC and 8-1 ATS in lidlifters! However, before you
empty the vault, heed these words of caution: Rick Neuheisel’s newcoach
status makes him a SMART BOX liability and QB problems are
biting the Bruins (3rd-string Kevin Craft will be at the helm today).
Even so, the points look too good to pass up.
GOLD SHEET
** KEY RELEASE **
*UCLA 20 - Tennessee 17--With top two projected QBs unavailable and banged-up OL looking like a disaster area in preseason camp, Rick Neuheisel's debut at UCLA has already had to take some detours. But before dismissing Bruins, remember that quick-footed "D" should be ornery once more for respected d.c. Walker, and who better than sage, vet o.c. Norm Chow to smooth out the rough spots for juco QB Craft (who started five games at San Diego State in '06)? UT in adjustment phase, too, as 1st-year o.c. Dave Clawson (ex-Richmond HC) trying to get new QB Crompton comfy as Vols debut their own West Coast attack. Note Bruins have covered their last 10 as a dog, and "short" was very profitable role for Neuheisel in previous career stops at Colorado and Washington. CABLE TV--ESPN (DNP...SR: Tennessee 7-4-2)
REG -
Fresno State 31 - RUTGERS 30--Departure of record-setting RB Rice (along with increasing scrutiny from the financially-strapped state of New Jersey into money being spent on Scarlet Knights' football program) might signal an end to HC Schiano's honeymoon at resurgent Rutgers. On the other hand, pugnacious Pat Hill's Fresno squad appears ready to rise, with many TGS scouts pegging veteran Bulldogs as the team to beat in WAC. Sure, Knights' strong-armed sr. QB Teel will get his. But FSU sr. QB Brandstater has enough composure to burn Rutgers' constant blitzes for big plays. Upset alert. TV--ESPN
WINNING POINTS:
Rutgers* over Fresno State by 7 (Monday)
Bulldogs got some of their swagger back last year, but not the kind of physical
defense that we are accustomed to from Pat Hill – even in a nine-win season they
allowed 5.1 per rush and only had 14 takeaways. Without getting push up front,
the secondary faces challenges against playmakers Tiquan Underwood and Kenny
Britt. RUTGERS 27-20.
Tennessee over U.C.L.A.* by 10 (Monday)
In time the recruiting of Rick Neuheisel, and tactical acumen of Norm Chow and
DeWayne Walker, can have the Bruin program offering Southern Cal a serious
local challenge. But that is in time, for now the absence of a legit starting QB
means problems against this class of opponent. TENNESSEE 29-19
POINTWISE:
4-Fresno State (+5 1/2) over Rutgers 27-24
Key Selections are graded 1 to 4, with 1 being the highest rating. "5" rated games are considered "best of the rest"
Red Sheet week 1
88--Fresno State (+5 1/2) over Rutgers 27-24
88--UCLA (+7) over Tennessee 25-22
MLB Monday: Play Against MLB (AL) road teams with a team that averages <=4.2 runs per game against a starting pitcher whose ERA= 4.70 to 5.70, with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 on the season, 42-14 SU since 1997
PLAY: Texas Rangers -160
e-Report Top Angle:
MLB Monday: SAN DIEGO is 2-16 against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 this season
Rutgers opens the 2008 campaign at home in Piscataway, N.J., against the Bulldogs, who will make their longest road trip since 2000, when they got belted 43-10 at Ohio State.
The Scarlet Knights, under eighth-year coach Greg Schiano, followed their breakthrough 11-2 season in 2006 by going just 8-5 last year (6-6 ATS), but they did finish up with a 52-30 victory over Ball State in the International Bowl as an 11-point favorite. Prior to that easy spread-cover, Rutgers was on a 1-4 ATS slide.
Fresno State, with coach Pat Hill entering his 12th season, is coming off a solid 9-4 season (7-5 ATS) that included a 40-28 victory over Georgia Tech in the Humanitarian Bowl. After failing to cover in two of their first three games last year, the Bulldogs went 6-3 ATS the rest of the season, putting behind their nightmarish 1-10-1 ATS effort of 2006.
The Scarlet Knights have 15 starters back from last year, but they must find a way to replace running back Ray Rice, who racked up an eye-popping 2,012 rushing yards in 2007. QB Mike Teel (3,147 yards passing, 20 TDs, 13 INTs last year) returns for his third year as the starter, and Rutgers also has all of its top receivers returning. Rutgers averaged 32.8 ppg last year, while allowing 22.5.
The Bulldogs are favored to win the Western Athletic Conference in 2008 thanks to 17 returning starters returning, including running backs Lonyae Miller, Ryan Matthews and Anthony Harding, who combined for 1,924 rushing yards and 25 TDs last season. Also returning is QB Tom Brandstater, who threw for 15 TDs against just five INTs last year. However, Fresno State is looking for big improvement on defense after ranking 73rd in the nation last year, allowing more than 400 yards per game.
The Knights are on a 12-2 SU tear in their last 14 non-conference games, winning by an average of 28 points, but they are a mediocre 8-9 ATS in their last 17 starts as a home chalk (2-3 ATS last year in that role) and they?re 2-6 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2005. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, have been solid against the number as a non-conference ?dog, going 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in that role, and they cashed in four of their final five on the road in 2007.
The over for Rutgers is on runs of 11-5-1 overall and 7-3-1 at home, and the over for Fresno State is on streaks of 4-0 in non-conference play, 5-2 in roadies and 14-6 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FRESNO STATE and OVER
(18) Tennessee at UCLA
The Bruins open the Rick Neuheisel era with a tough non-conference clash against Tennessee at the Rose Bowl.
Neuheisel, a former UCLA quarterback who has had head-coaching stops at Colorado and Washington, inherits a squad that went a disappointing 6-7 last year (9-4 ATS). Despite a .500 record, the Bruins snuck into the Las Vegas Bowl, where they lost to BYU 17-16, though they covered as a six-point underdog even though coach Karl Dorrell was fired as coach after the regular season. In the spread-cover versus BYU, UCLA enters this season on a 4-0 ATS roll.
Phil Fulmer, who took over for Johnny Majors midway through the 1992 season, is entering his 17th year as head coach at Tennessee, which went 10-4 last year (9-4-1 ATS). The Vols hit their stride down the stretch, winning six of their last seven games (5-1-1 ATS), including a 21-17 New Year?s Day victory over Wisconsin as a 2?-point favorite in the Outback Bowl.
UCLA is already thin at QB, with Pat Cowan (knee) out for the season and Ben Olson (foot) likely out until midseason, leaving Neuheisel with junior college transfer Kevin Craft under center. The Bruins have just nine returning starters from a team that struggled to score last year, being held to 16 points or less six times, including four games in single digits. In fact, UCLA barely outscored its opponents last season, averaging 22.4 ppg while allowing of 22.3.
As with UCLA, Tennessee will have a first-year starter at QB in Jonathan Crompton, but 1,000-yard rusher Arian Foster and 1,000-yard receiver Lucas Taylor return, as do four of five offensive linemen. The Vols, playing in the perennially tough SEC, averaged 32.5 ppg last year while allowing just a few points less at 27.3.
The Bruins are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 games at the Rose Bowl, and they are on further positive pointspread runs of 6-0 as a home ?dog, 4-0 against the SEC, 13-2-1 overall as a pup since 2004 and 19-7-1 in September. The Volunteers are 14-2 SU in their last 16 season openers, but both losses came in West Coast road games, at UCLA in 1994 and at California last year. Tennessee sports ATS streaks of 4-0 in non-SEC play and 5-2 in September.
For UCLA, the under is on runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home and 6-2 in non-conference action. The total also stayed low in six of Tennessee?s final seven games in 2007.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA and UNDER
MLB
Houston (71-66) at Chicago Cubs (85-52)
The Cubs, with the second-best record in baseball behind Tampa Bay, send Jason Marquis (9-7, 4.52 ERA) to the hill at Wrigley Field to open a three-game series against the Astros and ace Roy Oswalt (12-9, 4.11).
Chicago has followed a seven-game winning streak with two straight home losses to Philadelphia, including Sunday?s 5-3 setback. But the Cubs are still on a bevy of positive runs, including 35-18 overall, 50-18 at home, 11-4 against winning teams and 21-8 when Marquis toes the rubber at Wrigley.
Houston shut out St. Louis 3-0 Sunday to post its fifth straight victory and seventh in the last nine games. The Astros are 6-1 in Oswalt?s last seven starts overall, but they are a paltry 4-10 in his last 14 road starts.
These two N.L. Central rivals have split 12 meetings this season, with Chicago taking two of three at home in their most recent series Aug. 4-6. The Cubs are 4-0 in Marquis? last four home starts against the Astros and 5-1 the last six times they?ve faced Oswalt.
The Cubs have won three of their last four behind Marquis, including a 2-0 victory at Pittsburgh on Wednesday. In that outing, Marquis allowed five hits in seven shutout innings.
Oswalt allowed one run on five hits in seven innings in Wednesday?s 4-1 home victory over Cincinnati, his fourth win in his last five starts. The right-hander has gone at least seven innings in all five of those outings.
Marquis is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA in 13 home starts this season, and he?s 9-5 with a 5.22 ERA in 25 career appearances (20 starts) against Houston. Oswalt is 4-6 with a 3.93 ERA in 12 road starts this year, and he?s an even 11-11 with a 4.09 ERA in 25 career appearances (24 starts) against Chicago.
The over for the Cubs is on runs of 10-5 against winning teams, 5-1 in series openers, 6-2 behind Marquis at home and 9-4 against Oswalt. On the flip side, the under is on a 5-1 overall tear for the Astros and is on additional runs of 10-4 on the road behind Oswalt and 37-17-1 in the last 55 meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
N.Y. Mets (76-61) at Milwaukee (80-56)
The N.L. East-leading Mets hand the ball to southpaw Johan Santana (12-7, 2.70 ERA) at Miller Park to open a three-game set against the Brewers, who will counter with right-hander Ben Sheets (12-7, 3.05).
New York beat Florida 6-2 on the road Sunday to take two of three from the Marlins. The Mets have won three of their last four games and are on further streaks of 5-0 behind Santana, 5-1 in series openers, 8-3 on the highway and 13-5 overall.
Milwaukee, which leads the N.L. wild-card race, pounded Pittsburgh 7-0 Sunday behind a one-hitter from CC Sabathia to complete a sweep of the three-game series. The Brew Crew has won 19 of 26 and eight of its last nine overall and sports additional runs of 4-0 at home, 23-7 against lefty starters and 8-1 with Sheets facing an N.L. East team.
This is just the second series of the season between these two teams, with Milwaukee having taken two of three at New York in April. The Mets are 9-4 in the last 13 clashes at Miller Park, but the Brewers are 4-1 in Sheets? last five outings against New York.
The Mets are 5-0 in Santana?s last five starts, including a come-from-behind 6-3 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday, in which Santana allowed three runs on five hits in six innings. Over his last eight starts, Santana has allowed just 12 earned runs in 59 1/3 innings, for a minuscule 1.82 ERA.
Sheets snapped a 1-4 slide over his previous five starts with a solid effort in a 12-0 rout Tuesday at St. Louis. He scattered five hits in six shutout innings.
Santana is 6-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 15 road starts this season, and he?s 3-2 with a 3.61 ERA in 10 career appearances (six starts) against Milwaukee. Sheets is 5-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 10 home starts this year, and he?s 4-2 in seven career starts against New York, despite an inflated 5.10 ERA.
For New York, the over is on streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 8-1-2 on Mondays and 18-8-2 against the N.L. Central, and the over is 12-4-1 in Milwaukee?s last 17 home games against lefties. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is on runs of 40-17-5 overall, 10-1-1 at Miller Park and 5-0 with Sheets starting against New York.
HOU vs. CHC
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs
The Play: Chicago Cubs -125.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
Happy Labor Day. Its now time to fly back into things starting with some MLB. We've been pretty off of our game for a good few weeks now, but this is the time of the year that lines start to tighten, and money starts being made. This holiday, Monday, brings a nice little card to us from some hardball action...
For our first play we're heading to Wrigley Field where the Cubs play host to the visiting Astros at 4:05PM EST. The Cubbies come in losing their last outing, but a division best at 85-51. The Stros come in pretty much out of all post season contention at 70-66.
Right hander Jason Marquis will toe the rubber for Chicago. Marquis is a good anchor in this Cub's rotation. He is 9-7 overall. Jason is 2-0 his last three times out with a WHIP of 1.12 and an ERA of right around 3.00. The Cubbies have been on an absolute heater their last ten games going 8-2 with a team batting average of nearly .300. These two teams have slugged it out a ton of times already this year, and there are no secrets to be held. Both of these skippers know their opponent so hard nosed baseball will be seen at its best.
On the other side, Roy Oswalt is the scheduled starter for Houston. Roy has been pretty inconsistent thus far this season. He is an OK 12-9 overall, with an ERA of 4.11. Roy hasn't had much help offensively when pitching and Houston has dropped ten of their last 14 when he starts. Houston is 5-5 in their last ten total games, and Chicago flat out needs this one more.
A mid day game at Wrigley is no joke. Its never easy to play in Chicago, and the Cubs coming off a loss have something for this city to finally get excited about...post season play. Chicago is the play here. Lay the small home chalk on the favorite because that's what we'll be doing for a 1* / 10 unit wager this afternoon.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Astros are 4-10 in Oswalt's last 14 road starts
- The Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 Monday games
- The Cubs are 50-17 in their last 67 home games
- The Cubs are 54-26 in their last 80 games on grass
SEA vs. TEX
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
The Play: Texas Rangers -155.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
Finally, we'll be on the Rangers for a nighttime affair on Monday. Texas plays host to the Seattle Mariners at 8:05PM EST. The Mariners are coming off a road win, Texas too. Post season play is clearly out the window for either team here tonight, but that doesn't mean some good, hardcore baseball isn't going to be played in Tejas.
Lefty Matt Harrison will start for the Rangers. Matt is 6-3 overall this season, 2-1 in his last three. His last three games he has looked very, very sharp. He has gone 18 total innings giving up just 15 hits along with a WHIP of 1.14 and an ERA of just 2.95. No secrets in this Texas line up as we all know. We've played these guys a few times, and they've really been a cash cow for us all season long. The league's number one offense may not be a contender, but they are competitors.
Ah, Seattle. Seattle, Seattle, Seattle. This is one of the worst baseball teams to walk the planet. It sounds bad, but its true. The Mariners stroll in at 52-83 overall on the season, 24-42 on the road. To make matters worse, they put their worst heaver in Carlos Silva on the mound against this dynamite offense of Texas. Silva is an atrocious 4-14 overall in 140 innings, giving up 191 hits with a WHIP of 1.51 and an ERA of 6.36. Eek. He is 0-2 his last three times out with a WHIP of 1.94 and an ERA of 9.56. No joke...9.56 in three games. Not a good spot to "turn things around" for Carlos here tonight. On top of the starter woes, Seattle has been worse than bad in the bullpen. The pen has accumulated an ERA of 7.22 in their last three games, and a WHIP of 1.77. There has got to be little or no confidence in this clubhouse, and the city all around when it comes to baseball. A pretty sad story.
Anyways, Texas minus the juice is the play here tonight. A 1* / 10 unit wager on the fellas at home over the league's worst...and it could get ugly.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The Mariners are 2-7 in their last 9 road games
- The Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 meetings with the Rangers
- The Mariners are 18-41 in their last 59 meetings with the Rangers
STL vs. AZ
Sport: Major League Baseball
Game: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The Play: Under 9.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
Next we're going across the country to Arizona. The Diamondbacks host the Cardinals at 4:10PM EST. You want to talk about a team that needs to win, Arizona is that team. These guys have looked like a little league team these past few days and they truthfully can't afford that with their current position. In any sense, we'll be on the total in this one.
The UNDER looks too good not to bite on here. Neither one of these teams can hit as of late, and why should things change right now. Nine runs just doesn't seem possible. Both of these squads have been stringing games together by playing defense and four and a half runs from each side is asking A LOT. Joel Pineiro and Randy Johnson are the scheduled starters for this afternoon's action. Both have winning records and both have very similar statistics all the way around. The Unit has kept games under the quoted figure 13 times already this season, Pineiro nine. Both bullpens do a fair job coming in relief...so it really comes down to offense here.
It just doesn't seem probable. There are no names in either line up here today that shout runs...or even hits for that matter. We've been keeping a close eye on this Diamondback team these past few weeks, and they have no chance to make any sort of noise at the rate their going. Defense may win championships, but no one has ever won a championship 0-0. With that being said, the UNDER is the no brainer here. A 1* / 10 unit wager on the total staying under nine runs.
TRENDS OF THE GAME:
- The UNDER is 6-2 in Johnson's last 8 Monday games
- The UNDER is 13-6-1 in Johnson's last 20 Monday games
FRES ST vs. RUTG
Sport: NCAA Football
Game: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
The Play: Fresno State Bulldogs +4.0
Play Description:
Star Value: 1* (10 Units)
Writeup:
One little NCAA football play for Monday, and its between the Fresno State Bulldogs and the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. This is a set up game for Rutgers, and Fresno State is going to come out firing on the road today.
The Bulldogs are one pretty, darn good team. They went into Georgia Tech last year and handed the Yellow Jacket's their own rear end, and then went to New Mexico State and pulled out a 30-23 win there too. They held their own with the explosive Hawaii Warriors, and went on to defeat Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho, Nevada and Louisiana Tech. It is in no way out of line to say that this Fresno team is capable of big, big things this season...including a WAC championship.
Rutgers is Rutgers. They are and always will have a legit to good football program, but they've lost A LOT this past season. Consistency is going to be a HUGE question mark with this squad, along with depth and maturity all the way around.
This short line by Vegas seems to beg for Scarlet Knight action. The value on the money line here is tremendous, but we're going to grab the points just to be safe. Opening at +5, the line has already been driving down to 4 in a lot of places, exposing smart money alerts world wide. We'll jump on the Fresno Bulldog wagon for this one. A 1* / 10 unit wager on the Bulldogs as they take care of business on the road, snatching up win number one.
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