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Dave Essler:
919 DET / 920 HOU OVER 9 (Triple Dime) - mine is 9.5 now.
If they're steaming that Boston total DOWN (they are) then Texas definitely has some value, at the very least on the RL which is basically free. We'll see, but in case I don't, now you know.
This was an easy call, as was the NYY over - in last nights' game the pens allowed five runs from the 7th inning on, and that's without Houston batting in the bottom of the ninth - so THEY are not in good form. The Tigers defense isn't either, three errors, which I've found to by cyclical and contagious. The Astros had 8 hits last night, 5 of them from the bottom two in the order, so when the top starts hitting this might be even easier than I thought. Morton looks like he's on the decline, at least for now. Two 100+ pitch games for him (not normal) an has only pitched past the sixth inning once, which leave him OR the Houston pen as options for the Tigers to get their half. Almost the same deal on the other side only better. Norris has a 1.72 WHIP this season and has given up four or more runs in four of his last six starts, and in six innings or less, so there's the Tigers' pen as a double-barreled chance for Houston to get THEIR half. TBH, both teams could get their without help. The roof should be open, since it's supposed to be in the low 80's with no rain, and the ball carries really well there without the closed roof we see all summer when it 100* degrees. We're able to get this # because the one pitfall here is Hoye, the HP umpire, who runs more unders than over. If we had everything it'd be a bigger bet - but, three of his last four games have had 13 or more runs, with two of those three being in far better pitchers' parks than this one.
It's clear that the market likes Berrios and the Twins. In a way I agree, but Tillman hasn't pitched enough this season to give me that auto-fade feeling, and I don't like the Twins' lineup one bit. So yes, it's probably Twins or nothing if I were to bet it, which I am not. Passing on thoughts is all.
I have no use for the JayÙs/Brewers game. I'd have wrong on Milwaukee last night, so clearly I don't have a read on them. Garza HAS been much better (so far) and Stroman IS hittable, so if I had to the Brewers - but I don't feel strongly one way or the other. It's been my experience that the home team wins these day/getaway games more often than not, too. The market seems to lean to the Brewers, so maybe.....
The over in the Oakland game is getting support. Maybe. Volquez has never been as good as advertised IMO and Gray if over looked after the great years. Yelich is questionable - and if he plays I can actually make a case for the Fish. I know, road team. That's why unless something changed I'll pass.
I don't like Randall Delgado. I didn't when he was with Atlanta and I don't now. It's just a thing with me as I know he's capable, but he's capable of just about anything.
I won't take Bauer at that inflated price. I could make a reasonable case for the Reds RL, but we've got tons of time.
Anyone on just today, I bet the Brewers - it's hard for me to leave the Twins off, but I'd rather be wrong and leave it off rather than follow the money for no good reason. If you want to bet it, beer money on Minnesota for boredom, perhaps.
922 MIL (+105) Pinnacle vs 921 TOR
Analysis: Now that I've see Toronto's lineup I can do this - Braun is resting, which is fine. He hadn't seen Stroman anyhow. Shaw is in, everyone else is in, he's a good stick to have a pinch hitter later - at plus money it's certainly a perception line, IMO. Toronto still gets "Toronto" love from last year and Garza gets "Garza hate" from, well. several years.
919 DET / 920 HOU OVER 9 (Triple Dime) - mine is 9.5 now.
If they're steaming that Boston total DOWN (they are) then Texas definitely has some value, at the very least on the RL which is basically free. We'll see, but in case I don't, now you know.
This was an easy call, as was the NYY over - in last nights' game the pens allowed five runs from the 7th inning on, and that's without Houston batting in the bottom of the ninth - so THEY are not in good form. The Tigers defense isn't either, three errors, which I've found to by cyclical and contagious. The Astros had 8 hits last night, 5 of them from the bottom two in the order, so when the top starts hitting this might be even easier than I thought. Morton looks like he's on the decline, at least for now. Two 100+ pitch games for him (not normal) an has only pitched past the sixth inning once, which leave him OR the Houston pen as options for the Tigers to get their half. Almost the same deal on the other side only better. Norris has a 1.72 WHIP this season and has given up four or more runs in four of his last six starts, and in six innings or less, so there's the Tigers' pen as a double-barreled chance for Houston to get THEIR half. TBH, both teams could get their without help. The roof should be open, since it's supposed to be in the low 80's with no rain, and the ball carries really well there without the closed roof we see all summer when it 100* degrees. We're able to get this # because the one pitfall here is Hoye, the HP umpire, who runs more unders than over. If we had everything it'd be a bigger bet - but, three of his last four games have had 13 or more runs, with two of those three being in far better pitchers' parks than this one.
It's clear that the market likes Berrios and the Twins. In a way I agree, but Tillman hasn't pitched enough this season to give me that auto-fade feeling, and I don't like the Twins' lineup one bit. So yes, it's probably Twins or nothing if I were to bet it, which I am not. Passing on thoughts is all.
I have no use for the JayÙs/Brewers game. I'd have wrong on Milwaukee last night, so clearly I don't have a read on them. Garza HAS been much better (so far) and Stroman IS hittable, so if I had to the Brewers - but I don't feel strongly one way or the other. It's been my experience that the home team wins these day/getaway games more often than not, too. The market seems to lean to the Brewers, so maybe.....
The over in the Oakland game is getting support. Maybe. Volquez has never been as good as advertised IMO and Gray if over looked after the great years. Yelich is questionable - and if he plays I can actually make a case for the Fish. I know, road team. That's why unless something changed I'll pass.
I don't like Randall Delgado. I didn't when he was with Atlanta and I don't now. It's just a thing with me as I know he's capable, but he's capable of just about anything.
I won't take Bauer at that inflated price. I could make a reasonable case for the Reds RL, but we've got tons of time.
Anyone on just today, I bet the Brewers - it's hard for me to leave the Twins off, but I'd rather be wrong and leave it off rather than follow the money for no good reason. If you want to bet it, beer money on Minnesota for boredom, perhaps.
922 MIL (+105) Pinnacle vs 921 TOR
Analysis: Now that I've see Toronto's lineup I can do this - Braun is resting, which is fine. He hadn't seen Stroman anyhow. Shaw is in, everyone else is in, he's a good stick to have a pinch hitter later - at plus money it's certainly a perception line, IMO. Toronto still gets "Toronto" love from last year and Garza gets "Garza hate" from, well. several years.
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