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Re: 12-14-08
Marc Lawrence's Playbook
NBA
Sunday, December 14
New Orleans over TORONTO by 14
Here’s a matchup of two teams driving down different roads this season.
After dominating during the NBA pre-season, the Hornets have picked up
right where they ended. Meanwhile, the Raptors spoiled a 3-0 start and have already made a coaching change. At press time they are a measly 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS at home this season and appear to be a team in disarray. To make matters worse, the Dinosaurs are 0-5 ATS at home on Sundays while the Hornets have bagged the cash in 7 of their last 8 visits north of the border. Back the better team here tonight.Comment
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Re: 12-14-08
Tom Stryker
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Tom's NFL System Play of the Week!
NFL Late Season Awesome Encore
Handicapping the last three weeks of the NFL regular season can be tricky. The linemaker has made adjustments for those teams still in the playoff hunt and the pointspreads on those battles carry little value.
Trying to determine the mindset of a team that has been eliminated is no easy task either. Will those not making it to the post season play the role of a spoiler or toss in the towel? Thankfully, my pro database has helped me determine what situations are significant and profitable at this time of the year.
The technical gem that I’m about to break down isn’t that flashy. The parameters that make it click are simplistic. However, this NFL Late-Season Awesome Encore really packs a pointspread punch. Take a look!
Since 1980, non-division regular season hosts from game 14 to game 16 are a respectable 66-44 ATS provided they enter off a straight up underdog win. Momentum continues to be an effective tool when it comes to handicapping the NFL and, off an upset win late in the season, teams tend to carry over that quality of play especially at home in a non-division situation. Fortunately for us, there are two squads locked into this “play on” set this weekend: Miami and Philadelphia.
There are a couple of parameters that really make this system pop. First, if our side checks in off a straight up underdog win over a division opponent, technical treat improves to an incredible 39-16 ATS! Miami enters off a win over Buffalo while Philadelphia checks in off a victory over New York which means the Fish and Green Birds apply to this tightener.
Finally, with our 39-16 ATS in hand, a 7-7 ATS record can be removed if we eliminate bad teams. If our host carries a won/loss percentage of .400 or better, this system explodes to a nifty 32-9 ATS! Guess what? Both the Dolphins and Eagles apply!
Good luck with Miami and Philadelphia (on Monday) and be sure to check back next week for the first of three powerful college bowl systems.Comment
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Re: 12-14-08
EXPERT: Lee Kostroski
TITLE: 10* NFL Total of the Month - 83% run!
REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 10* Under the total, Cleveland vs. Philadelphia, 8:30 PM EST
Cleveland’s offensive struggles are the main reason we are taking the UNDER on this game. With Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn both sidelined with injuries, the Browns will start Ken Dorsey at quarterback for the second straight week. Last week in a 9-28 loss to the Titans, Dorsey was a mere 22/43 for 150 yards and 1 interception. We don’t see his production improving this week vs. a stingy Eagles defense. Even before Dorsey was handed the starting job, the Browns were struggling to score points. They have totaled just 21 points in the past three weeks (just 7 points per game). Their total yardage numbers the last three games are 240, 192 and 178. The Cleveland offense has been horrendous and now they face off against the 4th ranked defense in the NFL. The Eagles stop unit has completely shutdown two of the best offenses in the NFL the last two weeks. They held Arizona to just 20 points and 260 total yards two weeks ago. Last Sunday they topped the Giants 20-14. New York put together only 211 yards of total offense against this red hot defense. Not only that, their 14 points were even a bit deceiving as they scored one TD on a 71-yard blocked field goal return and the other TD came with just 20 seconds remaining in the game.
Back to the Browns and their defense which has actually been playing fairly well. Before giving up 28 points last week to the Titans, the Browns held Houston to just 16 points and Indianapolis to just 10 in back to back weeks. Cleveland is actually 3rd in the entire NFL in defensive efficiency allowing just one point for every 17 yards gained by their opponent. They have allowed 17 points or less in six of their last ten games. This team is decent on defense and really bad on offense. That combination leads to low scoring games.
The Eagles were in shambles after their 29 point loss to the Ravens, but as we mentioned, they bounced back nicely with big wins against the Cardinals and the Giants the last two weeks. Philly has been riding on the back of Brian Westbrook for the last two weeks as he has totaled 240 yards rushing. Eagle coach Andy Reid has really decided to lean on the run down the stretch and that has amounted to 81 rushes in the last two games. Don’t expect him to change his philosophy which has led to two straight wins. With the Browns ability to stop the pass (Cleveland has allowed an average of 185 yards passing the past three weeks, allowing just 3 touchdowns and forcing 6 interceptions), we will get an over abundance of the Philly ground game here.
Philly doesn’t have the strongest receiving corps to begin with, and they will have to use Westbrook a lot to consistently move the ball in this game. Running the ball will speed the game up and keep the score low. Last week, the Titans ran the ball 43 times for 235 yards in their 28-9 win. Both teams are a combined 11-2 UNDER in their last 13 games in December and we see that trend continuing on Monday night. Look for Philly to grab a lead and just sit on it using their running game. Go with the UNDER.
Best of Luck, Lee.
Lee Kostroski 10* picks are usually pretty good ones.Comment
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Re: 12-14-08
Jeff Benton
Sunday's NFL winnners ...
25 Dime: COWBOYS (minus the points vs. Giants) ... NOTE: I highly doubt that this number will climb to 3 1/2, but if for some reason it does, buy the half-point with Dallas and only lay 3. Do NOT get beat on the hook in this game!
Forget about the latest saga involving Mr. Me, Terrell Owens, and the supposedly fractured Cowboys locker room. And forget about any lingering hangover from Dallas’ blown four-quarter lead at Pittsburgh last week. It means nothing. All that matters is this is THE biggest game of the year for the Cowboys, and I’m fully confident that they’ll be ready to play football tonight. And if they do indeed bring their A game, then we’ve got ourselves tremendous value with the home team.
First off, don’t forget that Dallas is 5-1 at home this season, with the last two victories – both with Romo back under center – being by a combined score of 69-31. Yes, the opponents were the 49ers and Seahawks, I get that. But have you seen what San Francisco has done the last two weeks, winning at Buffalo and knocking off the Jets last Sunday? And did you see Seattle, with its backup quarterback, take New England to the wire a week ago? No, I’m not suggesting that the 49ers or Seahawks – two teams that the Giants also crushed at home earlier this season – are in the same league as the defending champions. I am saying those were pretty thorough whippings by the Cowboys, who outgained the Niners and Seahawks by 229 total yards
And even though they gave away that game against the Steelers last week, we can all agree that Dallas outplayed a Super Bowl contender on the road in frigid conditions. And had they pulled out the win, the Cowboys would be riding a four-game winning streak right now and we’d probably be laying more than 5 points tonight. So indeed there is line value with Dallas tonight.
Meanwhile, hours before Dallas outplayed the Steelers last Sunday, the Giants got completely run over at home by the Eagles. Some are willing to chalk up the loss to the distractions caused by the Plaxico Burress incident. Not me. When you get outgained by 120 total yards (331-211), when you’re the league’s #1 rushing team and you get outrushed 144-88, when you managed just 14 first downs (and allow 24), and when your quarterback – playing his second game without his favorite, most reliable 6-foot-7 target – goes 13-for-27 for 123 yards, well, you can’t blame that all on distractions. And don’t be fooled by the 20-14 final score, either. The Giants got one touchdown on a blocked field goal return on the final play of the first half, then got a garbage TD with 20 seconds left to make the score more respectable.
Honestly, guys, I think the Giants got exposed a bit in that Eagles loss, especially offensively. With Brandon Jacobs hurt (and he’s been ruled out for this game), New York’s vaunted ground game did nothing. And with no Burress on the field, Philadelphia’s defense didn’t have to mask coverages with a double team, meaning Eli Manning had fewer open options in the passing game. Now, without Burress and without Jacobs – both of whom made big contributions in the Giants’ 35-14 win over Dallas five weeks ago when the Cowboys didn’t have Romo – New York must try and solve a Cowboys defense that has been outstanding recently. Since the Giants’ debacle, that D has given up 15.3 points per game, and that includes the Steelers’ INT return for a touchdown last week that obviously wasn’t the fault of the Dallas defense.
In the last three games alone, the Cowboys have given up just 288 total yards per game, including a scant 58.7 rushing yards per game. During that same span, the Dallas offense has produced 27.3 points and 381.3 yards per game, including 286.3 passing ypg from Romo. Meanwhile, the Giants defense has been torched by the pass the last three weeks, allowing an average of 254.3 ypg to Kurt Warner, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb. The point: I see Romo bouncing back from last week’s disaster at Pittsburgh, and I don’t care what WR or TE he’s throwing to.
Bottom line: While the Giants are playing for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that’s important, the Cowboys are playing to save their season. They’re at home, where all five of their wins have come by four points or more, while the Giants are playing their fourth road game in the last six weeks, with three of those being against divisional foes. If the Cowboys come ready to play from the start, I not only see them winning, I see them winning handily.Comment
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Re: 12-14-08
Jeff Benton
Sunday's NFL winnners ...
15 Dime: TEXANS (plus the points vs. Titans)
At this late point in the season, it’s important to identify the attitudes and motivations of teams as much as it is to break down the actual matchups. When it comes to teams that are out of the playoff hunt, like the Texans, it’s critical to determine which are still giving an honest effort on every play and which are going through the motions. Clearly, after three consecutive victories and four straight spread-covers (three of which came on the road), Houston falls into the category of a squad that’s still giving its all.
At the same time, Tennessee wrapped up a division title and a first-round bye last week and is a virtual lock for home-field advantage, making this a major flat spot for Jeff Fisher’s team. Frankly, I just can’t envision the Titans, who are hitting the road for the fourth time in the last six weeks, having that mental edge today. Simply put, it’s only natural in a grueling 16-week season for teams – even great ones like the Titans – to have an off week, and this would seem to be the perfect storm for such an occurrence: Fourth road game in six weeks, coming off clinching a division title for the first time in years, facing a gritty and improving divisional opponent and missing one Pro Bowl-caliber defensive lineman (Kyle Vanden Bosch is out for the Titans) and another who is banged up (Albert Haynesworth is questionable).
Also, when these squads met back in Week 3 in Nashville, the final score read Titans 31, Texans 12, but it was a misleading final for two reasons: 1) the Texans were playing their first game after dealing with the devastation of Hurricane Ike, not to mention coming off an unscheduled bye week filled with non-football-related distractions; and 2) the Texans marched inside the Tennessee 11-yard line five different times but only managed 13 points (1 TD, 2 FGs), while being stopped on downs twice and having an interception returned 99 yards for a score. In fact, from a yardage perspective, Houston was every bit as good as Tennessee that day, finishing with 317 yards (146 rushing, 5.2 yards per carry) and giving up 343 yards (154 rushing, 4.3 ypc).
This time around, the Titans are catching Houston fully focused and playing great football. With last week’s 24-21 win at Lambeau Field – they outgained the Packers by 162 yards! – Houston won for the third straight week and the sixth time in the last nine weeks. In those nine contests, the Texans’ offense has put up 24 points or more six times. More impressively, though, over the last three weeks, the defense has really stepped up, giving up just 44 total points – or 30 points if you take away two garbage-time touchdowns to Jacksonville two Mondays ago.
Texans QB Matt Schaub returned from injury last week and lit up the Packers for 414 passing yards, and his presence makes rookie RB Steve Slaton that much more dangerous (Slaton gashed a really good Titans defense for 116 yards on just 18 carries in the first meeting). Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a home underdog and 5-1 ATS in its last six games in December. Also, despite the Week 3 result, the ‘dog has dominated this rivalry of late, cashing in seven of the last 10 meetings, with five outright upsets.
Take the points, though I’ve got a strong feeling we’re not even going to need them, as I think the surging Texans (4-2 at home this year) will catch Tennessee napping.Comment
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