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Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider (4-1 to open bowls!)-Tuesday
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Northern Illinois at 6:00 ET.
The inaugural Boca Raton Bowl features two conference champions; Northern Illinois from the Mid-American Conference facing off against Marshall, which is representing Conference-USA. “Outside of the New Year’s bowls, this is probably the best matchup in the country,” Huskies coach Rod Carey told reporters as his team prepares for the trip to Boca Raton, Fla. “I don’t think you have a ton of the champions (versus) champions, outside of the playoff four. Absolutely it adds juice.” Added Marshall athletic director Mike Hamrick: "You’re talking about two teams that won 23 football games this season. I’m not sure there are many bowls out there with two teams that have won 23 games.”
Marshall was unbeaten and in line for the one spot open from what’s called the “Group of Five” (the non-Power 5 conferences), for a spot in one of the “New Year’s Six” bowls. However, a wild 67-66 overtime loss to Western Kentucky on Nov 28 ended Marshall's bid for a perfect season and ultimately kept it from being the one team from the "Group of Five" mid-major conferences to make a College Football Playoff selection committee bowl. After the Herd (12-1) rallied to win 26-23 over Louisiana Tech in the C-USA championship game, the school felt its best option was to face Northern Illinois (11-2) in Florida, rather than explore a potential matchup with a lower-tier, power-conference team in another league-affiliated bowl. "We indicated to C-USA, which makes the ultimate decision, that we would like to play the best possible opponent and that is what we received in Northern Illinois," Marshall athletic director Mike Hamrick said. "NIU has been one of the elite 'Group of Five' schools this season."
As the old proverb says, “Be careful what you wish for!” Northern Illinois came into the 2014 season off years of 11, 11, 12 and 12 wins. With Jordan Lynch gone on offense plus just FIVE returning starters on the defensive side of the ball, head coach Rod Carey (in his second season) knew reaching the heights of the past four years would be a tough task. The Huskies opened the season with the nation's longest active home winning streak at 26 in a row plus also owned the nation's longest road winning streak at 15. First to fall was NIU’s road winning streak (at 17 in a row), when the Huskies lost 52-14 at Arkansas. The Huskies saw their home winning streak end at 28 straight on Oct 11 when Central Michigan won 34-17 in Dekalb. However, from that point on, the Huskies NEVER lost again.
NIU won SIX in a row following that loss to Central Michigan, giving them a 7-1 record (matching Toledo), earning the West title due to its win over Toledo. Northern Illinois then won the MAC championship with a convincing 51-17 triumph against Bowling Green, scoring more than 50 points for the third time this season and holding its opponent to 24 or less for the sixth straight game. The Huskies will enter this matchup having won SEVEN straight contests since that 34-17 loss to Central Michigan and have covered FOUR of their last five.
QB Dew Hare is no Jordan Lynch but in a modest 299 attempts, he has a splendid 17-2 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s the second-leading rusher (850 yards / 5.9 YPC / 8 TDS) for a team which averaged 252.9 YPG rushing. RB Stingily is the team’s leading rusher (but not by much at 895 yards), averaging 5.1 YPC with 13 TDs. NIU passed for a modest 189.5 YPG, which is just about 100 YPG less than Marshall averages (287.8 per). Marshall QB Cato threw for 3,622 yards with 37 TDs and just 13 INTs, while contributing 457 rushing yards (5.4 YPC and six TDs). That total ranked only 4th-best on a team which ran for 275.6 YPG on 6.9 YPC. Johnson gained 1,636 yards (8.6 YPC & 16 TDs), while Butler gained 781 yards on 7.7 YPC for seven TDs.
Only four teams in the nation scored more points per game than the Thundering Herd’s 45.1 PPG but despite allowing 67 points in that loss to Western Ky, Marshall’s defense gave up up 18 points or fewer in NINE of its 13 games. It’s hard to find too much fault with Marshall but laying double digits to Northern Illinois, the ONLY team in the country with at least 11 victories in each of the last FIVE seasons, seems like a “bridge too far.” In the post-Jordan Lynch, NIU has played with a chip on its shoulder (and with something to prove) since looking ‘dead in the water’ after that mid-October loss to Central Michigan. That MAC title game was I believe, a barometer.
It was the Huskies’ FIFTH straight championship game but NIU had gone just 2-2 SU and 0-4 (or 0-3-1) ATS. The Huskies’ 51-17 win was “all of that,” as they outgained Bowling Green 552 yards to 287 with 29 FDs to BG’s 13. Northern Illinois has built quite a program, as this makes the Huskies’ SEVENTH straight bowl appearance. However, they are 10-point dogs to a C-USA team (how’s that for a lack of respect?). I can’t imagine this quality program isn’t eager to atone for bowl losses the past last two seasons. One of those bowl losses came two seasons ago when the Huskies were stepping WAAY up in class to play Florida State in the Orange Bowl. Last season’s 21-14 loss to Utah State was much more competitive, but maybe more disappointing because the team wanted to win in Jordan Lynch’s final game and were playing a team they could beat.
This year, the Huskies just may get that win but either way, I sure want ALL those points! Oh by the way, NIU is a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS as a dog of 12 or less dating back to 2010! -
ALLEN EASTMAN (Bowl Games)
4-Unit Play. Take Under 67 – Northern Illinois vs Marshall
3-Unit Play. Take San Diego St.-2.5Comment
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VSI
Poinsettia Bowl
5* - San Diego St. -2.5
Boca Raton Bowl
2* - No. Illi.+10Comment
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Mike Davis
Poinsettia Bowl
6* - San Diego St. 2Comment
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Robert Ferringo
Poinsettia Bowl
1* - San Diego St. -3Comment
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Executive football
250% NavyComment
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DAVID GLISAN SPORTS
CFB:
(216) San Diego State -3 over NavyComment
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Gold Medal Club
NCAAB
730 Santa Clara -3.5Comment
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NCAA Football Game Picks
Navy vs. San Diego State
The Midshipmen head to the Poinsettia Bowl tonight to face a San Diego State team that is coming off a 38-7 win over San Jose State and is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing less than 20 points in the previous game. San Diego State is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Aztecs favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's NCAA Football picks.
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (12/22)Game 213-214: Marshall vs. Northern Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 99.184; Northern Illinois 79.269
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 20; 63
Vegas Line: Marshall by 9 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-9 1/2); UnderGame 215-216: Navy vs. San Diego State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 83.026; San Diego State 87.560
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 2 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-2 1/2); OverComment
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NCAA Basketball Picks
Detroit at Arizona State
The Titans head to Arizona State today to face a Sun Devils team that is coming off an 84-81 loss to Lehigh and is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 games following a SU defeat. Detroit is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun Devils favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8 1/2). Here are all of today's NCAA Basketball picks.
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. ESTGame 723-724: Massachusetts at BYU (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 57.785; BYU 69.942
Dunkel Line: BYU by 12
Vegas Line: BYU by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-9 1/2)Game 725-726: Detroit at Arizona State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 55.309; Arizona State 59.449
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 4
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+8 1/2)Game 727-728: LaSalle at Hofstra (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 58.264; Hofstra 58.246
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Hosfstra by 3
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (+3)Game 729-730: Cal Poly at Santa Clara (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 55.695; Santa Clara 56.777
Dunkel Line: Santa Clara by 1
Vegas Line: Santa Clara by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+3 1/2)Game 731-732: CS-Northridge at Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 49.331; Louisville 73.395
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 24
Vegas Line: Louisville by 26
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (+26)Game 733-734: George Mason at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 54.063; Wright State 62.417
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Wright State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-5 1/2)Game 735-736: Stanford at Texas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 62.905; Texas 76.811
Dunkel Line: Texas by 14
Vegas Line: Texas by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-10 1/2)Game 737-738: Louisiana Tech at NC State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 61.511; NC State 63.344
Dunkel Line: NC State by 2
Vegas Line: NC State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+5)Game 739-740: Georgia Tech at Dayton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 58.884; Dayton 68.106
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 9
Vegas Line: Dayton by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dayton (-5 1/2)Game 741-742: Arizona at UNLV (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 74.517; UNLV 63.953
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 13
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+13)Game 755-756: IUPUI at Richmond (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 41.775; Richmond 62.388
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 20 1/2
Vegas Line: Richmond by 18
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (-18)Game 757-758: Eastern Illinois at Cleveland State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 48.837; Cleveland State 58.794
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 10
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 12
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+12)Game 759-760: Cornell at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 48.154; Siena 52.629
Dunkel Line: Siena by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (+6 1/2)Game 761-762: Arkansas State at Niagara (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 50.553; Niagara 49.480
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 1
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 3
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+3)Game 763-764: Western Illinois at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 44.967; Memphis 68.022
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 23
Vegas Line: Memphis by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-17 1/2)Game 765-766: Wyoming at Montana State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 57.834; Montana State 49.111
Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 11
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+11)Game 767-768: South Dakota State at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 53.296; Utah 74.172
Dunkel Line: Utah by 21
Vegas Line: Utah by 18 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-18 1/2)Game 781-782: NJIT at Villanova (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NJIT 49.141; Villanova 73.324
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 24
Vegas Line: Villanova by 27
Dunkel Pick: NJIT (+27)Game 783-784: Sacred Heart at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacred Heart 49.620; Rutgers 53.407
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 4
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacred Heart (+7 1/2)Comment
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Today's NHL Picks
Arizona at Edmonton
The Coyotes head to Edmonton tonight to face an Oilers team that is 1-11 in its last 12 home games. Arizona is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Coyotes favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100). Here are all of today's NHL picks.
TUESDAY, DECEMBER 23
Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. ESTGame 1-2: Nashville at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 10.646; Boston 12.113
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1 1/2;
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/AGame 3-4: Carolina at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.446; New Jersey 10.512
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+145); OverGame 5-6: Toronto at Dallas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 9.984; Dallas 11.551
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-135); 6
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-135); UnderGame 7-8: Philadelphia at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.107; Minnesota 11.674
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-200); OverGame 9-10: Montreal at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.559; NY Islanders 11.409
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+120); UnderGame 11-12: Washington at NY Rangers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.609; NY Rangers 13.147
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-145); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-145); OverGame 13-14: Buffalo at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.877; Detroit 10.712
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-300): 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+250); OverGame 15-16: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.224; Tampa Bay 10.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/AGame 17-18: St. Louis at Colorado (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.472; Colorado 12.491
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+135); OverGame 19-20: Arizona at Edmonton (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 10.871; Edmonton 9.443
Dunkel Line & Total: Arizona by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); UnderGame 21-22: Winnipeg at Chicago (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 11.782; Chicago 13.411
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-255); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-255); OverComment
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StatFox Super Situations
NHL | WINNIPEG at CHICAGO
Play On - Any team against the money line (CHICAGO) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
93-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% | 54.7 units )
18-6 this year. ( 75.0% | 9.5 units )
NHL | WASHINGTON at NY RANGERS
Play On - Any team against the money line (NY RANGERS) off a home win where they shut out their opponent, with a winning record in the first half of the season
93-29 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% | 54.7 units )
18-6 this year. ( 75.0% | 9.5 units )
NHL | ARIZONA at EDMONTON
Play Against - Road Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (ARIZONA) after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=30%) in the first half of the season
30-9 since 1997. ( 76.9% | 25.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
NBA | MINNESOTA at CLEVELAND
Play Under - Any team after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
45-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.4% | 25.2 units )
2-4 this year. ( 33.3% | -2.4 units )
NBA | DALLAS at PHOENIX
Play On - Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
55-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 68.8% | 28.9 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.0 units )
NBA | PORTLAND at OKLAHOMA CITY
Play Against - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (PORTLAND) off 2 or more consecutive road wins, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )Comment
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Norm Hitzges
Tuesday, Dec. 23: San Diego State--Navy UNDER 54 (Poinsettia Bowl)Comment
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