12-7-14

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Insider Sports Report


4* Arizona +1 over Kansas City (NFL)
Range: +2.5 to -2


3* Cincinnati -3 over Pittsburgh (NFL)
Range: -1.5 to -5


3* New England -3.5 over San Diego (NFL)
Range: -2 to -6

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VegasButcher (NFL)

#1: NY Jets +4

This one opened at -6 and is now down to -3.5. A lot of value has been lost, but is this line still playable? Clearly the sharps favor NY in this matchup. I do to. Harvin is making his return to Minnesota, so you know he’ll be involved in the gameplan. More importantly, we can expect a similar gameplan as the Jets featured last week. They are going to run the ball in this one. NY comes in ranked 6th in runO while the Vikings are 27th in defending the run. That’s a big mismatch, especially since Minnesota’s 9th overall pick Anthony Barr will miss this game. Similar to the Jets, Vikings also are very efficient at running the ball, ranking 5th on the season. But unlike Minnesota’s runD, Jets rank 9th in stopping in the run. In addition, MIN will be without McKinnon (out for the year), and will rely on Asiata as their primary ball carrier. McKinnon has averaged 4.8 RY/A with 4 20+ yard runs, while Asiata is averaging a pathetic 3.3 RY/A (Trent Richardson numbers!) with 0 big runs. Based on ‘efficiency’ metrics, McKinnon was the 5th most efficient runner in the league this year compared to 26th rank for Asiata. Big difference between the two. Neither passing O is any good but the Jets clearly will have an advantage in the run game.

#2: Miami Dolphins -3

Two 7-5 teams here, both fighting for that Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Clearly, this is pretty much a ‘playoff’ game for both. So who do you trust? A team that has won a Championship recently, and is led by Harbaugh and Flacco, HC and QB who took them there, OR a younger team that hasn’t been to the post-season in 5 years? The Bookmakers are NOT making it easy on us, as the spread of -2.5 is very sharp, indicating that you must choose a winner here instead of backing let’s say the Ravens blindly had the number been set at -3. So who has an advantage? The Ravens continue to be torched through the air, allowing 376 passing yards and 8.5 PY/A to SD last week and 399 passing yards and 9.3 PY/A to NO the week before. They are hoping to get Asa Jackson back this week as he began practicing, but of course the loss of Jimmy Smith 5 games ago is the real reason this passD has been horrible since. Smith was a shut-down corner, capable of taking the whole side of the field away and without him, this Ravens passD has produced an average DVOA of +26% in the last 4 weeks of the season, which would rank as the 2nd worst in the league for a full year, just behind Washington’s +27.8% mark. Miami’s 7th ranked offense should be able to exploit that. To make matters even tougher for the Ravens, their stout 7th ranked runD will be without a key player as Haloti Ngata is suspended for 4 games starting with this one. Unlike Ravens’ passD, their runD has been exceptional the last 4 weeks since Jimmy Smith went down with an injury, as their average DVOA mark of -35% in that time, would rank #1 in the NFL, just ahead of Detroit’s -34% season-long number. Ngata is a true difference-maker for the Ravens in the run-game and one of the best run-stopping DT’s in the game. This is a huge loss. Miami has now registered positive DVOA marks in the run game in 3 straight games – +17% vs BUF (#4 runD), +54% vs DEN (#1 runD), +33% vs NYJ (#9 runD) – all against top-10 run defenses. Don’t forget, they’re doing it without Branden Albert, their best offensive tackle, who was lost to the season early in November. Miami’s #2 most efficient runO should have an easier matchup against the Ravens without Ngata in there. Of course while the Dolphins should have success attacking Baltimore offensively, the Ravens could as well. Miami has allowed 277 rushing yards on 5.7 RY/A to the Jets on Monday and 201 rushing yards on 5.7 RY/A to the Broncos two weeks ago. The Ravens do have Justin Forsett, NFL leader in average at 5.6 RY/A. They also have a much more competent passing game than what the Jets featured on Monday Night. Keep in mind that Miami ranks 14th in runD, and though they’ve been torched the last two weeks, they aren’t that bad in that area. So when we put all this together what do we have? After losing to BUF and KC, two very good teams, Miami has gone 6-3 with their losses coming to Green Bay in the final seconds, @ DET in the final seconds, and @ DEN in the final minutes. They lost by a total of 10 points to these three opponents who have a 72% win-rate combined. By comparison, the Ravens have dominated mediocre opponents (CAR, ATL, TB, TEN, and NO) but have struggled against Cincy (twice), Pittsburgh, Colts, and the Chargers. These teams are good but only the Colts are on the level of the Lions, and none of these teams are on the level of DEN or GB. The Dolphins have played a much tougher schedule than the Ravens, yet they have the same record as them. I think Miami is a ‘better’ team right now, especially when you consider that Ngata is out and this Ravens passD is just helpless out there. Throw in the fact that Miami ranks 2nd defensively at home and only allow 4.5 YPP on their home turf, and I believe Ravens could really struggle in this one.

#3: Indianapolis Colts -3

The Colts have been listed as a road-favorite 4 times this year, going 3-1 ATS in the process. Their 4 losses this year came to DEN, PHI, PIT, and NE, teams that rank 2nd, 15th , 4th and 3rd offensively. Philly hasn’t been as ‘efficient’ this year but they are still regarded as one of the best offensive teams in the league. Cleveland ranks 19th on offense, 12th passing and 27th rushing. Of course it’s important to note that this team started out the year very efficiently, ranking in the top-10, but have really struggled once their stud center Alex Mack went down in week 6. Since then, their offensive DVOA has been -22%, which would rank as 4th worst for the full season, only better than OAK, TB, and JAX. Heck even the Jets’ -15% offensive DVOA has been better. Even with Josh Gordon returning to the lineup, their DVOA the last two games is at -19%. Big issue is Hoyer who is abysmal. He ranks 20th in QB-Efficiency, 32nd in QBR, and has a terrible 57% completion rate. Since Mack’s injury he’s completed only 54% of his passes with 5 TD’s and 9 INT’s. I know Hoyer is claiming that he should be the starter because he has a winning record with the Browns this year, but it’s hard not to when you are facing teams like JAX, OAK, TB, HOU, and ATL. Now he’ll go up against a real team in Indy (a top-10 team in the league) and will be opposed by an elite QB in Luck. The Browns do have the 6th ranked passD, but maybe this is a game where Trent Richardson actually tries to run hard. Remember, he was traded by CLE last year and still feels disrespected for that decision. Maybe, just maybe, we’ll see a better effort out of him, though I doubt it will amount to anything as he’s just not a talented back. One key factor in Cleveland’s favor is the absence of Vontae Davis from this game. He’s Indy’s best CB and Josh Gordon should he much more effective in this game due to Davis’ absence. Still, even if this one is a shoot-out, that will greatly favor the Colts. They have an elite QB and elite weapons around him (plus Allen is due back), and of course Colts are just overall a better team.

#4: St Louis Rams -2.5

Who would have ever thought that the Rams would be a road favorite this year? Well, that’s what happens when you beat SF, SEA, and DEN, while obliterating an inferior team like Oakland last week. Well, the Redskins are just as bad as the Raiders. In the last 5 weeks of the year, this Rams D has an average DVOA of -22%, which would rank as the #1 D over the course of a full season (DET is at -19% for the full year). Over the same time-span, Washington’s offense has a -19% DVOA mark, which would be the 4th worst offense over a course of a full season. Their defensive DVOA of +15%, would be tied for the WORST in the league with ATL. One team is trending up while the other one is nose-diving. Colt McCoy will start for Washington, and it has to be a concern for them that he had 4 fumbles against the Colts last week. He only lost 1 of course, but against a lot of pressure from the Rams’ D today, fumbling the ball could be disastrous. In addition, he’ll be without his vertical threat as Desean Jackson is out. Without anyone stretching the field vertically, expect the Rams to converge on the intermediate routes, move safeties in, and unleash their devastating pass-rushers. In the last 5 games, St Louis has registered 22 sacks – McCoy got sacked 6 times last week. I think it’s going to be a long day for McCoy and this Washington team.

#5: Pittsburgh Steelers +3

A crucial game between two divisional rivals here. Cincy is on a 3-game win streak but they beat a 5-7 NO team, a 6-6 Houston team, and a 2-10 Tampa squad…barely. They are 2-3 ATS against teams with a winning record, with both wins coming against the Ravens. I know Pittsburgh looked a bit flat last week coming off a BYE, but I would expect a bounce back in week 14. This is a ‘make it or break it’ game for them, while Cincy has a little more of a cushion. They are expected to get both Shazier and Jarvis Jones, who will shore up their LB’s. That’s important because Cincy has struggled running the ball efficiently in the last 4 games or so (4 or less RY/A in 3 of the last 4 games). Steelers rank 14th against the run and with both of their young LB’s back, expect them to be even better in this one. If Pittsburgh can take away the run game, inefficient Dalton will be relied upon to win the game. Dalton ranks 27th in QB-Eff and 24th in QBR. Pittsburgh is very vulnerable versus the pass (29th PassD) but it’s not like Cincy has an efficient passing offense. I think the biggest mismatch in this game is between Pittsburgh’s 10th most efficient runO and Cincy’s 32nd ranked runD. Cincy faced Doug Martin and Alfred Blue in the last few weeks, so of course their runD will look ‘good’ against those two mediocre players, but against Le’Veon Bell, I believe they’ll struggle. The DLine ranks 30th in the league in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) while Pittsburgh’s O-line is 5th in that metric. I expect a run heavy game plan from the Steelers, as they’ll look to control the game in this one. Bottom line is that we have two divisional opponents that know each other very well. Bengals are in control of the division right now and coming off 3 straight road wins, while the Steelers are off a home loss in this one. The underdog has value in this one from my standpoint.

#6: NY Giants -2.5

Oh the Giants, what the hell are you guys doing? I’m sure Coughlin is asking the same question. Seemingly in total control last week against the Jaguars, Eli Manning has one of his typically boneheaded fumbles, which Jags recover for a TD, and then a few possessions later, NY’s TE does the same thing, which the Jags scored on again. A 21-0 Giants lead turned into a 25-24 defeat. It’s one thing to lose to PHI, DAL, IND, SEA, SF, and then DAL again…all teams competing for the playoffs. It’s another to give a game away to the hapless Jaguars. How will this team react? Of course it’s important to note that they’ve lost Geoff Schwartz for the season, who is probably their best O-lineman. They also lost Kiwanuka and Ayers, who were some of their better defenders left. They will get Pugh back which will help the D line and looks like Jennings will play as well. The Titans will be without Hunter and Wright, as Zach Metternberger’s offensive options are greatly reduced. He’s also dealing with a shoulder injury though he’ll play. Titans could be without Wimbley, one of their better defensive players, and without their LT Lewan who has a high ankle sprain. Titans are already without Roos and Schwenke, two starters, so their O-line is pretty much in shambles at this point. If your best remaining O-lineman is Michael Oher, of the “Blind Side” fame, then you are in real trouble. The good thing for the Giants is that their D limited Bortles to 5.5 PY/A average last week and held the Jags to 4.0 YPP and only 10 points. They’re taking on another rookie QB this week who is leading one of the worst offenses in the league. The Titans have allowed 43 and 45 points in two consecutive weeks, and as long as Manning doesn’t turn the ball over, NY has a chance to score some points here. Even though most people probably won’t even touch this game, I believe there’s value in the Giants at a short number.

#7: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

This one was ARZ -1 / -1.5 earlier this week, but has now moved a full 3+ points. Big news is of course that Ellington is out. He is Arizona’s most dangerous weapon and without him, this offense could really struggle. In Stanton’s last 3 starts, this offense has a -15% DVOA, which would rank as the 4th worst in the league over the full season. He was especially awful in his last start, throwing 2 INT’s but it could have been even more as Atlanta’s secondary dropped at least 2 other ones. One supposed advantage for Arizona is their 5th ranked D in this game. Well, Arizona’s D relies on pressure with lots of blitzing. KC though has a pretty conservative offense, relying on their run-game and for Alex Smith to be a game manager. I doubt Arizona’s blitz-oriented D will be as effective in this particular matchup. Expect the Chiefs to play conservatively, rely on their run-game and their short-passing attack, while enabling their D to tee off on Stanton. A conservative approach will be the right gameplan in this matchup, and I would expect the better team to come out on top.

#8: Seattle Seahawks -1

In ButtFumble Sanchez’ 5 starts with the Eagles, he’s faced the following opponents and their pass and run D ratings:



HOU: 17 vs the pass / 18th vs the run

CAR: 20 and 22

GB:14 and 23

TEN: 25 and 30

DAL: 22 and 24



Only Green Bay is even an ‘average’ passD out of those opponents, and none of them are any good at stopping the run. Well, now he’ll take on Seattle’s 6th ranked D, which is playing even better than that over the last few weeks. Seattle is also 5th in stopping the run, which could be a major problem for Sanchez and the rest of this offense. I think this is a really bad matchup for Philly’s offense and I expect another dominant game from Seattle here. They had 10-days to prepare, and though they are playing on the East Coast, this is a 4:25 start instead of 1:00, which should be easier on a West Coast team like the Seahawks.


#9: New England Patriots -3.5

One thing I’ve learned is never to fade NE off a loss. More often than not, the Pats bounce back in a big way. San Diego is on a 3-game winning streak but all 3 have been very tough wins – 7 point win against OAK, 3 point win against STL, and a huge comeback and a 1 point win @ BAL last week. Rivers got hurried a ton in that game and took a lot of hits but San Diego was able to pull it out late. I wonder if we’ll see a bit of a letdown tonight. The Pats won’t be stopped in this game as San Diego is terrible defensively, but I trust that Belichik will do enough to make a few key stops against Rivers and the Chargers’ O.

#10: San Francisco 49ers -8

Coming off a loss to SEA, where they got absolutely dominated in every aspect of the game, I’d expect a bounce back from the Niners today. They have the #1 ranked passD and Aldon Smith is providing an actual pass-rush for the team now. Derek Carr has been horrible lately, averaging below 6 PY/A in 5 straight games! He has 1 TD and 2 INT’s over the last 3 games and his QBR rating has been below 30 in 4 of the last 5. Facing this San Fran D on a bounce-back isn’t an ideal spot. San Fran has ranked as the 8th best offense on the road this year, which is a big difference from their overall 18th mark. With 10-days to prepare, I’d expect a better effort and a better game plan out of them. San Fran should roll here.

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Elite Sports Picks


St. Louis -3 over Washington (NFL)

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Diamond Dog Sports
#160: Titans: +1.5 (-105) (3*)


#161: Panthers: +10.0 (-115) (0.5*)


#174: Raiders: +8.5 (-105) (1.5*)

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EXECUTIVE FOOTBALL

650% GOY cincinatti
300% miami
150% minnesota
100% cleveland
100% st louis

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LENNY STEVENS
20
PITT
MIAMI
10
philly, colts

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Paul Leiner:
2000* NFL Seahawks +1
100* CBB Over 125 Cal/Nevada
100* NFL Over 44 Rams/Redskins
100* NFL Texans -5.5

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Touchdown club
lock (1-9 ats)
giants

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Sports authority
lock
cincinnati

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Millionaires club
strong
cleveland
san diego

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POWER PLAY WINS

Power Play Of The Day

NFL: Kansas City Chiefs -1

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RAS

James Madison + 6.5

Montana -4.5

Washington +2

Arkansas / Clemson Under 143

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Rooster:


154 Pittsburgh over 47.
854 Manhattan-14.5.
855 n. Colorado+13.5.
835 California-6.5 (4%).
831 Arkansas-3.

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Chris James

Browns
Buccaneers
Saints
49ers
Patriots

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Vegas Line Reader

8-1 last 9 picks

12/7 steelers/bengals over 47.5