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Game of the Day: 49ers at Broncos
San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-7, 49)
Peyton Manning can shatter the NFL record for career touchdown passes when the Denver Broncos host the surging San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night. Manning needs three scoring strikes to surpass the all-time record of 508 held by Brett Favre, but the league's only five-time Most Valuable Player said his focus is on San Francisco. “We’re playing a tough schedule, we've got the 49ers at home and they've been one of the dominant teams of the past couple years," Manning said. "That’s all I’m thinking about.”
San Francisco has a short week to prepare for Manning and the Broncos after spotting St. Louis an early 14-point lead before roaring back for a 31-17 victory on Monday night, extending its winning streak to three games. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is coming off his finest performance of the season, throwing for 343 yards and three scoring passes to keep the 49ers a half-game behind first-place Arizona in the NFC West. San Francisco's defense offers a test for Manning, ranking second in both total yards (287.2) and passing yards (207.3).
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.
LINE HISTORY: The line initially opened at Denver -6.5 where it stayed for several fays before moving to -7. The total has been dropping sincer opening at 50.5, it is now sitting at 49.
INJURY REPORT: 49ers - WR Stevie Johnson (Prob-Hip), S Jimmie Ward (Ques-Quadricep), CB Chris Culliver (Ques-Shoulder) Broncos - RB Juwan Thompson (Prob-Knee)
WEATHER REPORT: It should be a nice night for football with clear skies, minimum winds and a temperature around 68°F.
WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Denver enters a rough stretch ahead with games against the 49ers, Chargers and Patriots. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-divisional home favorites of less than 17 points. Now playing on short rest and heading to Denver, the 49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games." - Matt Fargo
ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U): San Francisco could be shorthanded for the duel with Manning, with Pro Bowl linebacker Patrick Willis expected to miss the game and cornerback Jimmie Ward a question mark after suffering injuries against St. Louis, leaving the 49ers without three of their top linebackers. Defensive back Perrish Cox said the team has confidence in rookie Chris Borland, who replaced Willis on Monday night and register two tackles and a pair of pass breakups. "“We've all got trust in Chris Borland,” Cox said. "He’s got big shoes to fill. We’re going to miss Pat in this game, but we’ve all just got to step in.” San Francisco may lean on running back Frank Gore, who was limited to 38 yards last week but went over 100 yards in each of his previous two games.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Manning has one of the league's best weapons and a matchup nightmare in third-year tight end Julius Thomas, who hauled in two more scoring passes in last week's 31-17 win over the New York Jets to give him nine for the season - tying Calvin Johnson for the most in league history through five games. Wideout Demaryius Thomas shook off a slow start and has put up a pair of monster games since the bye week, hauling in 18 catches for 350 yards and three touchdowns while running back Ronnie Hillman rushed for 100 yards against the Jets in his first career start. Manning has thrown for at least three TDs in four of the five games and has 15 scoring passes versus three interceptions. Linebacker Von Miller has six sacks for Denver, which is allowing only 76.8 yards rushing per game.
TRENDS:
*49ers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games.
*Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 4-0 in 49ers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
*Over is 10-2 in Broncos last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
NFL | CLEVELAND at JACKSONVILLE
Play On - Home underdogs or pick (JACKSONVILLE) after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
118-64 since 1997. ( 64.8% | 47.6 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )
NFL | NEW ORLEANS at DETROIT
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (NEW ORLEANS) off a home win against opponent off an upset win by 10 or more as a road underdog
38-16 over the last 10 seasons. ( 70.4% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
NFL | KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO
Play On - Favorites of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (SAN DIEGO) off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite against opponent off a road loss
29-8 since 1997. ( 78.4% | 20.2 units )Comment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty hit with Ohio State (-22) on Saturday and likes the Packers on Sunday.
The deficit is 1002 sirignanos.Comment
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Hondo
Hondo back with his besties
Who’s your big daddy! The Spartans put a serious spanking on Indiana Saturday, which enabled Hondo to pare his accounts payable to 1,040 lipscombs.
Sunday: Mr. Aitch again will ride his BGBBs (Bettor’s Guide Best Bets) — 10 units apiece on the Colts, Seahawks and Chiefs.Comment
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Jeff Clement
Minnesota Vikings vs. Buffalo Bills
NFL Total 8 Unit Play!
Over 42.5 -105
The Over is 6-1 last 7 Buffalo games in October and the Over is 4-1 last 5 Buffalo home games vs. teams with losing road records. The Over is 5-2 last 7 Vikings games. I expect Teddy Bridgewater to put up big numbers for Minnesota and Buffalo should score against the Vikings horrible defense which allow 23.8 points per game. The OVER is a 8 Unit Play!Comment
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EZWINNERS
EZ's Plays For Sunday
Three plays on my card for Sunday. I will most likely add a play on the late game between the 49ers and the Broncos that won't be posted on the website. Check my Twitter feed or email me to get on my text message list to receive that added play. Best of luck.
-EZ
3* (455) Miami Dolphins +3
These two teams had very different results last week. Miami lost at home in the final seconds against the Packers while the Bears pulled off the road upset at Atlanta. It can be argued that Chicago is a much better team on the road than at home and at least for gamblers that has been the case as the Bears are just 1-10-1 against the spread in their last twelve home games. Chicago is beat up physically as they finished last weeks win with their top four linebackers all hurt. Miami is getting healthier and will try to pound the ball and control the clock against the beat up Chicago defense. The Dolphins are 12-3-1 against the spread as an underdog of five points or less. Take the points.
3* (461) Carolina Panthers +7
The Packers offense is starting to improve, but I don't believe they should be laying seven points against many teams at this point in the season. Aaron Rodgers has the passing game going, but the run game is not what is was last season. The Green Bay defense is last in the league against the run and their two starting cornerbacks are both beat up. Carolina's quarterback Cam Newton looked as good as he has all year in last week's tie at Cincinnati. Newton combined for 391 passing and rushing yards against the Bengals and Green Bay doesn't have the defense to contain him in this match up. Rookie receiver Kelvin Benjamin should play and he will be a nightmare matchup for Green Bay's backup corners. Take the points.
3* (471) New York Giants +6.5
The Cowboys are coming off of a huge win last week in Seattle while the Giants were crushed last Sunday night by the Eagles. Welcome to the NFL where things change drastically from week to week. The Cowboys have been a great play recently as an underdog, but they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as a home favorite. The Cowboy's defense is playing over their heads in my opinion as they were projected to be very bad this season. The Giants offense had been clicking up until last weeks disaster. I look for both of those units to get back closer to their norm in this game. New York has played well in Dallas winning four out of the last five meetings straight up. Take the points.Comment
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SPORTSWAGERS
NFL
WASHINGTON -5½ vs Tennessee
WASHINGTON -5½ -110 over Tennessee
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
With all due respect to the Raiders and Jags, Tennessee is by our estimation the worst team in football and it might not be close. The Titans have no defense, their offense can’t move five yards and is getting progressively worse and their two wins came virtue of nothing but pure luck. At home last week against Jacksonville, Tennessee was outgained by 89 yards, they lost the time of possession battle, they allowed over 300 yards in the air and had it not been for a turnover margin of +2 and a blocked FG on the final play, they would have lost again for the fifth straight week. The Titans have been blown out three times and in their last two road games they lost them both by 24 and 26 points respectively. There is nothing that suggests they won’t lose this one by a similar amount.
The Redskins are one tweak away from being a winning team. Turnovers. The Redskins have committed an incredible 31 turnovers in their last 14 games, 13 of which have been losses. They're minus-16 in the turnover differential during this stretch. Both the 31 turnovers and the ratio are the worst in the NFL over that span. Also, in four of their last nine games they've committed at least four turnovers. This is an area that Jay Gruden has to drill into their heads this week. It’s not rocket science. The ‘Skins have the personnel to be competitive and they certainly have the ability to defeat this pathetic visitor by more than a TD. Kirk Cousins can flat out play, as he went off for big yardage several times including a 427-yard game against the Eagles. Washington keeps shooting itself in the foot. They have played Seattle and Arizona the past two weeks and could have won both. The difference between this Titans outfit and Washington at home is more than a touchdown and we wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see it get out of hand. At some point, a team has to get sick of losing because of turnovers and it's not a difficult fix. This is that week.
Kansas City @ SAN DIEGO
Kansas City +4 -107 over SAN DIEGO
(Risking 2.14 units - To Win: 2.00)
The Chargers defense has quietly been formidable and the offense continually reinvents itself with new players. The Bolts have won five straight and while that narrow 3-point victory over the Raiders last week lowered their stock somewhat, they are still overvalued. Four of San Diego’s five wins occurred against Buffalo, Jacksonville, the Jets and Oakland. Combined that quartet is 4-20 and Buffalo has three of those wins. There is a price to pay for playing garbage opponents and that price could easily be paid this week. Furthermore, the Chargers have the Broncos on deck Thursday night in a prime time game and could get caught looking ahead to that big showdown.
Then there’s Andy Reid and the Chiefs. K.C. lost its opener to Tennessee and one has to wonder how the hell that happened. In any event, the Chiefs rebounded with a decent effort against Denver but fell short in a 7-point loss. Things got even better in the next two weeks when Kansas City overwhelmed both the Dolphins and Patriots, winning by 19 and 27 points respectively. Finally, two weeks ago, the Chiefs went into San Fran and lost by just five. In summarizing, the Chiefs have played Denver, Miami, New England and San Fran in succession and that difficult schedule should have them well-prepped for this one. The real kicker here is that Andy Reid has won 13 of his last 15 games when his team is coming off a bye. No coach in the NFL history has a better record coming off a bye than Reid. That’s significant and so is the fact that Reid’s offense has only committed nine penalties this entire season. Andy Reid is a well prepared coach that is in a favorable situation this week and that’s more than enough reason for us to step in. Chiefs outright but we’ll gladly take the points.
Arizona @ OAKLAND
OAKLAND +160 over Arizona
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.20)
The Arizona Cardinals have one of the best records in the NFL at 4-1. How can that be? We watch this team every week and what we see is a team that gets every bounce in their favor. None of their wins have been impressive. They somehow managed to rally late in the 4th quarter with 14 points against San Diego in their opener in a game that ended at 2:00 AM and that nobody witnessed. We did and they looked useless for 53½ minutes. In Week 2 at New York, the Giants looked useless but still had numerous opportunities to defeat Arizona before losing 25-14. In the Cardinals 23-14 win over San Fran in Week 3, they kept drives going with 7 penalties in their favor that resulted in a first down otherwise they would have punted several more times. That’s how they won that game. In Week 4, the Cardinals were buried by the Broncos and finally last week, Washington turned the ball over FOUR times in the fourth quarter, yet Arizona had just a three point lead with seconds left before Kirk Cousins threw a pick 6 to make the victory 10 points instead of three. The Cardinals really have nothing. They have no star QB, they have no running game and they don’t have a top-tier receiver either. Defense you say? We say uh-uh. The Cardinals defense is allowing 304 yards per game through the air, which ranks them dead last in the NFL. The Arizona Cardinals are this year’s biggest frauds and they are high on our radar as pure fade material. We rank them in the bottom tier in the league in terms of personnel and talent.
After a bye and the hiring of a new coach, the Raiders certainly looked to be much more competitive last week. One thing that is certain is that Tony Sparano is very much invested. He is all-in and is trying to take advantage of this opportunity. The Raiders rolled up 396 yards against the Chargers and David Carr threw for four touchdowns. If the Raiders continue to play improved and with the same fire, it could be interesting to watch this team develop the rest of the season. Having gone an incredible 42 straight games without defeating a team with a winning record, the Raiders will be all-in this week in an attempt to snap that futile streak. Sparano had two weeks to prepare for San Diego and did a good job. He has now had three weeks and a game film to work with and frankly, he couldn’t have handpicked a better team to get off the mattress against. Keep the points. We’re playing Oakland straight up.
Miami @ CHICAGO
Miami +3 +106 over CHICAGO
We’re going to wait until Sunday morning to pull the trigger on this one because there is a good chance of us getting another half point. For sure it’s not dropping. We’ll apply our buy-low/sell high theory to this game after the Dolphins blew a lead and dropped that heartbreaker to the Green Bay Packers in the final seconds last week, while the Bears went into Atlanta and defeated perhaps the worse coached team in football. The media will drill into your head (every NFL show you watch or listen to) that the loss that the Fins suffered last week was too emotionally draining for everyone involved to bounce back from but we’re not buying that. Coach Joe Philbin made it a point Tuesday to say this is one of the best practices the team had all season. Players also are beating the drum this week that everything is fine. Miami’s defense was able to get some pressure on Aaron Rodgers and the Dolphins’ defensive line was also terrific against the Packers. This is a Miami team on the rise that resides in perhaps the most underestimated division in the NFL and that is not going to let one play define their season.
The Bears’ three wins came at San Francisco, at Atlanta and at home against the Jets. In that win in San Fran, they were one play away from getting absolutely blown out. Chicago’s three losses occurred against Buffalo, Green Bay and Carolina. Chicago has been on the road in four of the past five weeks. That’s extremely exhausting and it takes a toll. Nobody is going to mistake Jay Cutler for Aaron Rodgers and Miami sacked Rodgers three times last week. Miami probably would have had double that amount if not for Rodgers’ scrambling ability and quick release. This is probably the one unit the Dolphins can count on to take its game on the road and play well at Soldier Field. Miami is legitimately seven or eight deep on the defensive line and they figure to force Cutler into making some bad decisions, as he always does when the heat gets turned up. The Bears have yet to blow out an opponent and while it won’t take a blowout to cover this number, anytime we can take points with a defensive front that should dominate the line of scrimmage, we’re glad to do so and make no exception here.
NOTE: No bets for now but we wil update this on Sunday, as we wait for a better number.Comment
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Today's NFL Picks
San Francisco at Denver
The 49ers head to Denver tonight to face the Broncos and come into the contest with a 10-3 ATS record in their last 13 road games. San Francisco is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Broncos favored by only 3. Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/16)Game 451-452: Cincinnati at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 136.294; Indianapolis 136.049
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); UnderGame 453-454: Tennessee at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 124.246; Washington 126.857
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Washington by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+6); UnderGame 455-456: Miami at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.918; Chicago 135.253
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 5 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); UnderGame 457-458: Cleveland at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 132.159; Jacksonville 121.114
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 11; 49
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 5; 45
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5); OverGame 459-460: Seattle at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 134.371; St. Louis 130.192
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 4; 35
Vegas Line: Seattle by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+7); UnderGame 461-462: Carolina at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.205; Green Bay 140.509
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); OverGame 463-464: Atlanta at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 133.312; Baltimore 137.287
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 45
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+7); UnderGame 465-466: Minnesota at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.134; Buffalo 131.276
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3; 50
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+5 1/2); OverGame 467-468: New Orleans at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 130.818; Detroit 135.891
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 5; 56
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-2 1/2); OverGame 469-470: Kansas City at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 134.141; San Diego 134.449
Dunkel Line: Even; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+4 1/2); OverGame 471-472: NY Giants at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 128.786; Dallas 142.717
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 6; 48
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-6); UnderGame 473-474: Arizona at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 133.182; Oakland 125.517
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 7 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Arizona by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-3 1/2); OverGame 475-476: San Francisco at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.990; Denver 140.907
Dunkel Line: Denver by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Denver by 6 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+6 1/2); UnderComment
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Today's CFL Picks
Edmonton at Saskatchewan
The Eskimos (10-5 SU) head to Saskatchewan today to face a Roughriders team that is 7-3-2 ATS in its last 12 games versus a team with a winning SU record. Saskatchewan is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19
Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/15)Game 497-498: Edmonton at Saskatchewan (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 110.172; Saskatchewan 115.571
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 5; 52
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 4; 48
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+4); OverComment
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Today's NHL Picks
St. Louis at Anaheim
The Blues head to Anaheim tonight where they are 4-17-1 in their last 22 meetings versus the Ducks. Anaheim is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Ducks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-140). Here are all of today's picks.
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 19
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. ESTGame 51-52: Minnesota at Los Angeles (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 13.206; Los Angeles 12.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); UnderGame 53-54: San Jose at NY Rangers (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 10.986; NY Rangers 12.352
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-115); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-115); OverGame 55-56: Calgary at Winnipeg (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 12.311; Winnipeg 11.489
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Winnipeg (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (+125); OverGame 57-58: St. Louis at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.429; Anaheim 12.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-140); 5
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (-140); UnderComment
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Raphael Esparza (VSI)
6-Unit Game of the Month
CowboysComment
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Mike Davis
7*
JaguarsComment
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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday
4* Best Bet = KANSAS CITY
3* = N.Y. GIANTS
3* = "OVER" on DENVER/SAN FRANCISCO
2* = Indianapolis
2* = Pittsburgh(Monday night)Comment
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king creole 3* for tonight? 3*** KANSAS CITY CHIEFS plus the points versus San Diego Chargers
4:05pm ET - 1:05pm PT / #470
Get your play in ASAP. The Chargers opened up as a favorite of -5.5 points for this AFC West Division game. The sharp money is on the underdog CHIEFS… as the line has moved down to +3.5 to +4. One can forgive the home fav Chargers for perhaps looking ahead to their next game… a BIG divisional showdown on Thursday night against the Denver Broncos. That ‘look ahead’ puts San Diego squarely in the sights of a couple of PLAY AGAINST situations:
(1) 0-6 ATS since 1998: All division home favorites of > 3 points (Chargers) BEFORE playing a Thursday night DIVISION road game.
(2) NFL teams have gone 13-33-2 ATS before playing the DENVER BRONCOS in their next game (Chargers). These teams have gone 5-19 ATS if they are a winning team (.500 >)… and 1-8 ATS in the last two seasons for all AFC Teams.
San Diego played Oakland last week. And they play Denver next week. They are in the stretch of 3 STRAIGHT division games in a row.
1-11 ATS since 2005: All FAVORITES… in the 2nd of 3 straight DIVISION games (Chargers)… when off an ATS loss in their last game (SD won but did NOT cover vs the Raiders). These teams have gone a PERFECT 0-8 ATS when favored by a field goal (-3) or more points.
We are well aware that San Diego is on a current FIVE-game winning streak. The database tells us it’s time to FADE these teams.
5-19 ATS since 2002: All GAME NINE or less teams off 5 or more SU wins in a row (Chargers). These teams have gone 2-14 ATS when favored by < 8 points… including 1-8 ATS in Game Eight or less.
During their current winning streak, the Chargers have scored 31 points… 31 points… and 33 points in their last three games.
5-17 ATS since 1988: All division home teams who scored 31 > points in EACH of their last three games (Chargers)… versus any < .50 opponent (CHIEFS). Since 2004, these teams have gone 1-8 ATS.
While San Diego is going through a stretch of a lot of injuries (particularly in the backfield AND offensive line), the Chiefs come in rested and relaxed off their Bye Week.
6-0 ATs since 2008: All division road teams with REST and off a SU loss in their last game (CHIEFS lost to Niners 22-17 on Oct. 5th)… versus any opponent off a SU win (Chargers).Comment
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