9-6-14

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Phil Steele

Best bets:
Tenn. 38 ark st. 14
Army 34 buffalo 24
Maryland 37 USF 17
Auburn 52 SJ 13
Upset of week: Toledo 31 Missouri 30
High scoring game of week: navy 35 temple 34

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Vegas Runner

#341 Akron +15.5 NFAC (400.00)
#339 USC +3 (-120) NFAC (400.00)
#358 ULL -13.5 NFAC (400.00)

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PURE LOCK

Purdue -3 +100

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Greg Shaker

Triple Dime

Memphis / UCLA over 53

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Upset alert: Five potential college football Week 2 shockers
By KEVIN CAUSEY

College football Week 2 is packed with upset potential. We breakdown five matchups and ring the outright upset alarm, rankings just how probable these stunners could be Saturday.

Old Dominion Monarchs at North Carolina State Wolfpack (-17)

Moneyline odds: Old Dominion +875/NC State -850

North Carolina State struggled mightily against Georgia Southern in Week 1 but did rally in the fourth quarter for the win. With senior Taylor Heinicke at quarterback, the Monarchs can flat out score points and that's an area that the Wolfpack struggled in with new quarterback Jacoby Brissett.

Likelihood of upset: Small

Gardner-Webb Bulldogs at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-22)

Moneyline odds: Gardner-Webb +975/Wake Forest -1,975

The Demon Deacons gained just 94 yards in their season opener and scored 10 points against UL Monroe. Now they’re a 24.5-point favorite in Week 2. Gardner-Webb lost by 10 to Furman. Keep in mind that Wake's biggest victory from 2013 was 24 points (over Presbyterian and Maryland) and that they only scored more than 24 points four times in 2013. This feeling is less about confidence in Gardner-Webb and more about a lack of confidence in Wake's offense.

Likelihood of upset: Medium

Northern Illinois Huskies at Northwestern Wildcats (-7)

Moneyline odds: Northern Illinois +243/Northwestern -285

In Week 1, NIU won by 52 over Presbyterian while Northwestern lost to Cal by seven. Northern Illinois may not have Jordan Lynch anymore but it has a fantastic running attack and Northwestern will struggle to stop it. All of the offseason hoopla about Northwestern unionizing may have divided the team and interrupted its focus. We will likely find that out after this game.

Likelihood of upset: Large

Colorado State Rams at Boise State Broncos (-10.5)

Moneyline odds: Colorado State +330/Boise State -410

The Broncos fell flat against Ole Miss in Week 1. They hung in for three quarters and then got blown out in the fourth. Colorado State beat in-state rival Colorado behind an aggressive running game that featured former Alabama RB Dee Hart and Treyous Jarrells (both ran for over 100 yards).

Likelihood of upset: XL

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Illinois Fighting Illini (-6)

Moneyline odds: Western Kentucky +195/Illinois -235

No Bobby Petrino, no problem for WKU in Week 1 as the Hilltoppers led the FBS in passing yards with 569 in a 59-31 rout of Bowling Green (the 2013 MAC Champions). Illinois struggled to get past Youngstown State, needing 21 points in the fourth quarter to win by 11. A lot of pressure is on new Illini quarterback Wes Lunt to put the team on his back.

Likelihood of upset: Jumbo

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Six NCAAF teams that impressed the oddsmakers the most
By KEVIN CAUSEY

You never get a second chance to make a first impression - and boy did these programs turn some heads in their Week 1 debuts. So much so, oddsmakers were forced to recognize those opening efforts and seriously adjust their odds to win the college football national championship.

Here are six of the most impressive squads from Week 1 and how they look going into their next meeting:

Georgia Bulldogs (18/1 to 10/1 to win national title)

After playing Clemson to a tie in the first half, Georgia made some halftime adjustments, the defense played lights out and the running game systematically took apart the Clemson defense.

Up next: -3 at South Carolina (Sept. 13)

This game is in Columbia and the Gamecocks have won the last two tilts at Williams-Brice Stadium. I expect Steve Spurrier to have his squad ready to go but keep an eye on the health of RB Mike Davis, as he could be the difference in this game.

Louisville Cardinals (300/1 to 100/1)

Louisville's debut in the ACC was very successful, beating Miami by 18 points (- 5.5). New quarterback Will Gardner played very well (20 for 28 for 206 with two TDs) as did RB Dominique Brown (33 carries for 143 yards and one TD).

Up next: -36.5 vs. Murray State

FCS Murray State is the next opponent on a short week for Louisville but keep an eye on the Week 3 game at Virginia. The Cavs played very well against UCLA and could be a tougher matchup than bettors thought before the season started.

LSU Tigers (20/1 to 15/1)

The Tigers didn't look particularly great against Wisconsin but they showed a lot of heart by coming back from a large deficit. Louisiana State is very young and should get better each week.

Up next: -34 vs. Sam Houston State

Another FCS matchup on the board and then the Tigers have a date with Louisiana-Monroe, who knocked off Wake Forest in Week 1. That one has the ability to be closer than anticipated.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (100/1 to 60/1)

Everett Golson is back and looks like the type of player that could put the Irish on his back. He threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns while adding three rushing touchdowns versus Rice. With Golson, they are a completely different team.

Up next: -3.5 vs. Michigan

The line has actually moved down from at 5.5 the past week. The last time these two teams played in South Bend, the Irish won 13-6. A lot of action seems to be going the way of Michigan right now. But loyal Golden Domers will come in strong Saturday morning.

Texas A&M Aggies (100/1 to 20/1)

Johnny Who? Kenny Hill had a breakout game for Texas A&M and Kevin Sumlin, as the Aggies shocked South Carolina in Week 1.

Up next: -49 vs. Lamar

The Aggies schedule sets up very nicely for them as they play Rice and SMU after they dispatch of Lamar and then ease into the SEC West schedule with Arkansas. With the amount of talent the Aggies have on offense they will face some lofty spreads the next three weeks.

USC Trojans (30/1 to 20/1)

Despite the distractions prior to the game, the Trojans came out and ran roughshod over Fresno State.

Up next: +2.5 at Stanford

Since last week the line has moved in favor of USC. Bettors may want to pump the breaks on USC a little bit in this game. The Trojans haven't been Stanford on the road since 2008 and are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine clashes with the Cardinal.

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StatFox Super Situations

CFB | NEW MEXICO ST at GEORGIA ST
Play On - A road team (NEW MEXICO ST) poor defense from last season - allowed 400 or more total yards/game, with 5 defensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

CFB | E CAROLINA at S CAROLINA
Play On - A road team vs. the money line (E CAROLINA) after gaining 575 or more total yards in their previous game against opponent after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game
31-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.8% | 0.0 units )

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GOLD MEDAL CLUB
Saturday CFB Selections

5* 322- toledo +5
368 tulane +10.5
371-michigan +4.5

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Doc's Sports


4 Unit Play. Take Purdue Boilermakers -3 over Central Michigan Chippewas (12 pm ESPNEWS) We will go back to the well again with Purdue as their defense let us down last week in a game that fell very close to the number. But I expect a better performance out of them this week against Central Michigan, a team on paper that many believe has better talent than Western Michigan did. But I am not one of those people, as the Broncos had numerous young studs that CMU just does not present. This number is much more manageable as well, and Purdue can double their win total from last year with a victory on Saturday. CMU struggled to put away Chattanooga last week, and playing on the road is a whole different animal. CMU is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games played during the month of September.


4 Unit Play. Take Utah Utes -11 over Fresno State Bulldogs (Saturday 3 pm PAC-12 Network) The Bulldogs got run over by a so-so USC team for the second straight game, and I just do not see things getting better against Utah this week for their second straight road game. Fresno State lost a lot of their offensive firepower, including David Carr to the Raiders. Fresno State returns 8 starters on defense from last year, but they gave up over 700 yards to USC and were pretty poor last year as well giving up over 30 points per game. Throw in the fact the Utah's new coordinator was the former Wyoming coach, Dave Christensen, who knows how to attack this Fresno State team. Utah is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against MWC teams. Fresno State is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against PAC-12 teams.


4 Unit Play. Take Kentucky Wildcats -12.5 over Ohio Bobcats (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN U) The Wildcats should be a better team in year two under Mark Stoops. They blew out an FCS team, which is not impressive, but then again any win by Kentucky over the last couple of years is a good thing. They now host a pesky Ohio team that is always near the top of the MAC standings but never wins the MAC. Kentucky usually plays well in nonconference home games, with the exception of Louisville (12-1 straight-up the last three games). This includes going a perfect 6-0 against MAC teams. The last four games have come by a 30 point average margin of victory. Ohio has lost 4 straight games against the spread following a victory in their previous game.


4 Unit Play. Take New Mexico Lobos +25 over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 7 pm CBS Sports Network) No Top 25 team lost as many starters as Arizona State did from 2013. Therefore, I do not believe they will be able to run over teams, especially on the road. New Mexico is not very good, but like Georgia Southern last week, they have a run-based offense that can shorten the game, especially if they can stay close early. New Mexico's starting quarterback will not play in this game; however, this is a triple option team and the backup should not miss a beat. This type of team is very hard to prepare for and I really believe Arizona State is focused on their UCLA game in a couple of week. Arizona State has dropped six straight road openers, and this is just too many points for them to cover on the road. New Mexico always has a strong fan base, and this should be a good crowd for both teams. Arizona State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. QB Taylor Kelly is good, but I just do not believe he can cover this spread by himself.

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Game of the Day: Michigan State at Oregon

(6) Michigan State Spartans at (4) Oregon Ducks (-12, 55.5)

The calendar just flipped to September but postseason implications will be the focus when No. 4 Oregon hosts No. 6 Michigan State in a non-conference game Saturday afternoon. Both sides have their sights set on qualifying for the inaugural four-team College Football Playoff and the winner of this game could have solid bragging rights come late November. Oregon was among the national leaders in offensive production last season while the Spartans sported one of the top defenses, and both appear to have carried those same strengths into this season.

Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota picked up where he left off last season, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for another score in a win over South Dakota. The three-year starter and early Heisman Trophy candidate will have his work cut out against a defense that likes to press receivers with its cornerbacks and blitz its linebackers early and often. Connor Cook also continues to improve at quarterback for the Spartans and was in fine form in the season-opening blowout win against Jacksonville State, completing 12-of-13 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Oregon -12.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw Oregon -12 then briefly jumping up to -13 before settling at -12 again. The opening total was originally 58 before quickly falling to 55.5.

INJURY REPORT: Michigan State: QB Connor Cook (Ques-Knee), RB Jeremy Langford (Prob-Leg), WR Macgarrett Kings Jr. (Ques-Leg), OT Travis Jackson (Ques-Back) Oregon: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Prob-Ankle)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Ducks did not disappoint in Week 1, steamrolling an inferior opponent. Marcus Mariota had four TDs (all in the first half). Connor Cook completed 12-of-13 passes for 285 yards and three TDs in Week 1. The Spartans still look like the team to beat in the Big 10." Covers Expert Jesse Schule

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Sharps are liking the dog in this one, as the Ducks have gone from +13 to +11.5 here. 71 percent of cash and 69 percent of all bets are on the Spartans plus the points." - Mike Perry ofSportsbook.ag

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (1-0): Spartans running back Jeremy Langford twice hobbled off the field after tweaking his ankle Friday but downplayed the injury earlier this week and appears set to play against the Ducks. Michigan State is also expected to have starting left guard Travis Jackson (back spasms) and punt return specialist Macgarrett Kings (left ankle) in the lineup after they departed early during the Jacksonville State game. Jackson’s return is especially key because the Spartans already lost a starter up front when right guard Connor Kruse went down with a leg injury in the middle of last month.

ABOUT OREGON (1-0): Byron Marshall will have a tough time topping his performance against South Dakota, as he led the Ducks in both rushing and receiving coming out of the slot position. About the only thing he dropped was the football just before he crossed the goal line at the end of what would have been a 54-yard touchdown run. Marshall’s threat, whether on a pass pattern or a handoff, should open things up even more for freshman running back Royce Freeman.

TRENDS:

*Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Spartans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
*Over is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Under is 5-1-1 in Spartans last 7 games in September.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 60.36 percent of Covers users are taking Michigan State +6 with 64.8 percent taking over 55.5.

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Joe Gavazzi

STEAMROLLER GAME OF THE WEEK
Buffalo at Army (-3-) Noon ET CBSC

Buffalo was anything but impressive in their 38-28 victory over the glorified high school football team, known as Duquesne University. They allowed the Dukes 373 yards and those 28 points. After leading 21-0, the Bulls actually trailed the Dukes 28-24 in the 4th quarter. That effort is hardly an endorsement when forced to face the Army option attack against which they will have little clue! There are only 4 RS that made just 44% of the tackles last season for the Bulls. True enough that this is the first game of the season for Army. But with no film of the Cadets’ opener, it will be a tough read for the Buffalo defense.

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bookiemonsters

POD BOS -130

MIN -109
STL -105
ATL -110

VANDY +20

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Just Cover Baby

5 Stanford -3
4 Missouri -3 (if -3½ buy the hook to 3)
4 Michigan +3½
3 Navy -3
3 Virginia Tech +12

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playbook data play

michigan

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RAINMAN

10* USC

5* Missouri
5* Tennessee
3* Wyoming
1* Texas
1* South Carolina