3-22-14

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Cajun Sports Wire




CBB 5* San Diego State -3 vs. North Dakota State 6:10PM EST




The College card for Saturday night has produced another solid Black Label Best Bet. North Dakota State off their upset victory over the Sooners has them now facing a very stingy defensive minded San Diego State team. North Dakota State defeated Oklahoma because the Sooners defense is inconsistent and average at best while the team they face tonight certainly believes in defending the basket. Just look at some of the teams they faced this season and what they allowed them to score. New Mexico scored 58 and 48, Marquette 59, UNLV 64, 52, 51, Boise State 66, 65 and Kansas 57 points. NDS has a decent presence in the paint but they are not nearly as athletic as SDS especially at the forward and guard positions as SDS has size and speed. Their ability to defend is evident in their holding opponents to 28 percent from behind the arc. Overall San Diego State allows 58 points per game and a meager 39 percent shooting from the floor. North Dakota State is coming off the biggest win in school history and now faces a team that was taken into overtime after having led by double-digits at the half. Not a recipe for success as this is a perfect flat spot for NDS and a perfect attention getting contest for SDS. We expect San Diego State to be completely focused on the task at hand which means grab a big lead and never look back. The BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.8 points. The BBMM projects a point differential of 6.84 points with a current line range of -3 to -5. The SIM Matrix projects a 73.5 percent against the spread advantage in tonight's contest. The Pace - Tempo Matrix has San Diego State with a Transitional number of 41.39 with a conversion rate range 45.2 to 48.95 percent. With solid situations favoring San Diego State along with a huge edge in all primary index averages we will lay the short price here as San Diego State gets the win and advances. Lay the points

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Sheeps moves
Dayton/Syracuse over 128 900
Villanova -3.5 900
Pacific -8 1000
Wisconsin -4 1000
Memphis -1 1000 NBA

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charlie sports
500
mich st over 136.5
texas +5.5
both must win

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Sports Betting Professor
3/22
513. Detroit Pistons +13

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Gavazzi


Saturday, March 22, 2014






CBKB


CIT


3% IPFW-2


3% Yale +5






NCAA Round 2


Dayton vs. Syracuse (-6-) 7:10 ET TBS Buffalo, NY


4% Syracuse (-6-)


Linemaker did not give Dayton much credit for their victory, which was balanced out by the return to form of the Orange. But Round of 32 handicapping is clear on the letdown factor for the Flyers. That’s even more likely to happen based on the fact it was Big Brother Ohio St. and by the nature of the win. The very intense Flyers now enter tonight’s game on runs of 11-2 SU and are 8-2 ATS as underdog this season. In a Top Play Winner with Syracuse on Thursday, I accurately predicted the return to form of a Syracuse team, who entered the Tourney on a slide of 2-5 SU, 1-5 ATS. But the week off seemed to rejuvenate Syracuse, who held a +20 edge on the boards and used their vaunted 2-3 zone to hold W. Michigan to 35% from the field. The Orange placed 4 in double figures, each of whom scored 14 or more points. Also, cannot ignore a site just 150 miles from the Carrier Dome home of Syracuse. This type of site advantage has translated into 60% winners in the last 3 decades. Hope that Boeheim does not sit on the lead with under 5 to go, as he is prone to do.






UConn vs. Villanova (-3-) 9:40 ET TBS Buffalo, NY


4% Villanova (-3-)


UConn was fortunate to get their Round 1 victory (89-81) in OT against St. Joes. They allowed the offensively potent Hawks to shoot 52% from the field. Credit the Huskies with knocking down 11/24 from the arc and a 13/9 Assist/TO ratio. But, the deciding factor came when Kanacevic fouled out in OT and UConn went on to convert 15 consecutive foul shots. That begs for reversal against a Villanova team, who cruised to a 20 point win against Wisc.-Mil with a big 2nd half. The Wildcats did so, despite just knocking down 4/23 from the arc. Their underrated defense and rebounding were the difference with a +9 margin on the boards and holding the Panthers to 39% from the field. Balanced scoring saw 5 Wildcats score in double figures. In a reprise of many classic Big East wars, must favor Villanova to use that underrated defense and rebounding, and better balanced scoring, along with the experience veteran coaching experience of Wright vs. Ollie to garner this victory.






Pittsburgh vs. Florida (-5) 12:15 ET CBS Orlando, FL


4% Florida (-5)


The improbable regular season-ending win at Clemson, (down 5 with 13 seconds to go) 83-78 in OT, has kick started a late season surge by the Panthers that has seen them go 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS. In those 4 victories, the offense has come to life, scoring 81 PPG. Yet, it is their lone loss in that timeframe (51-48) to Virginia, which saw them return to their struggling offensive ways. Such will be the case again today against the lock-down defense that is Florida. Respect is accorded to Pitt and HC Dixon for the 45-22 ATS record of dog to -1. Strongly emphasizing defense and rebounding, that record makes a lot of sense. But, it is Dixon’s priority on the fundamentals which makes his teams a standout in this role. Consider the stats from their 77-48 romp of Colorado. Not only did they outshoot the Buffs 51 to 36%, but Pitt had an 18/3 Assist/TO margin, while Colorado had a 5/17 ratio. Those numbers alone will win you a lot of basketball games. Today, however, they face the No. 1 team in the nation, a senior-dominated Florida team who vastly underperformed in Game 1. Despite the 67-55 win against outmanned Albany, HC Billy D. was clearly upset with his team after the game. Yet, it was Florida’s 27th consecutive win, lifting them to 33-2 SU for the season. The Gators again relied on their tough defense in that win, which allowed Albany just 39% from the field. Zanna will be hard-pressed to replicate his sterling numbers of late against the interior of Young, Yeguette, and Prather. Though PG Robinson has been a stabilizing force for the Panthers, he is clearly outclassed at that position by Scotty (Prince) Wilbekin. While Florida’s defense will make stopping Patterson of the Panthers a priority, Frazier has the potential to knock down multiple triples with Pitt being forced to focus on interior defense. Panthers are seldom blown out, but this could be an example. Playing at an Orlando based site, not far from the Gator’s home, continues to be a 60% pointspread advantage the last 3 decades. Note, only 5 of Florida’s victories, in their 27-game win streak, have been by less than 6 points.






St. Louis vs. Louisville (-9) 2:45 ET CBS Orlando, FL


3% St. Louis (+9)


The Louisville bandwagon has gotten very crowded. That was the final indicator that allowed this bureau to record a 10* Winner on Manhattan in the opening round. Though the Cards prevailed (71-64), they were outshot by the Jaspers 45 to 36%. Only the strong board work of the Cards, which showed them to be +14 in rebounding margin, along with making 27/35 from the stripe allowed them to get the victory. Harrell had a double, double at 12/13, while 4 Cards scored in double digits. Earlier in the evening, St. Louis showed why 5 senior starters are always dangerous in NCAA play. After winning 19 straight games, SLU limped into this event at 1-4 SU ATS, including a QF loss in the CCT. Trailing by 16 in the 2nd half, it looked like the Bills had tossed the towel. But, you are never out of it as long as Wolfpack HC Gottfried is on the other bench. He made enough coaching mistakes to allow St. Louis to force OT and his Wolfpack missed 15 foul shots. The Bills showed their poise with a 16/9 Assist/TO ratio and knocked down 9 triples at opportune times. If it weren’t for a 10/22 night from the stripe, the victory margin would have been larger. Even against the pressure of Louisville, this team will be tough to blow out. St. Louis lost 6 games this year by 6 to Wisconsin, 5 to Wichita St., 7 to Duquesne, 11 to VCU, 5 to Dayton and 3 to St. Bonnie. Five out of 6 of those will get us the money today. As long as the public continues to ride Louisville in this game, we have a good opportunity for a winner in St. Louis.






Oregon vs. Wisconsin (-5) 7:45 ET CBS Milwaukee, WI


5% Wisconsin (-5)


My major concern is the flocking of public money to a Badger side that blew out American (75-35) in Round 1at a very favorable site. First score I got saw American leading 20 to 13. That means the rest of the way it was everything Badger by a count of 62-15. In so doing, Wisky outshot the Eagles 50 to 30%, knocked down 10 triples, had a 13/7 Assist/TO ratio, while harassing American into an 8/17 Assist/TO ratio. As previously stated, this is HC Ryan’s most athletic offensive team with all 5 players being both capable of taking it to the hoop, as well as knocking down the triple. Later in the day, Oregon continued their magical run. The Ducks won (87-68) outshooting BYU 50 to 33%, while only knocking down 2/13 triples. But, they had an outstanding 21/8 Assist/TO margin and knocked down 31/38 from the stripe. Now, following their mid-season 2-8 SU, 3-7 ATS nosedive, the Ducks are on a run of 9-1 SU, 7-2 ATS. Before you unleash that rubber band from your bankroll, note that veteran 4th year Oregon HC Altman now has a record of 36-20 ATS as underdog, including 6-2 ATS this year. Though Oregon perimeter players Young, Moser, Calliste, Artis, and Dotson are an explosive group, in the end, the Oregon undoing will be that there continues to be no D in uck.






Texas vs. Michigan (-4-) 5:15 ET CBS Milwaukee, WI


4% Michigan (-4-)


It has been a fantastic turnaround season for a Texas team who was just 16-18 SU last year in an injury plagued, suspension ridden season. Must credit 16th year HC Barnes for authoring a turnaround with strong board work and explosive offense. But the Horns may have peaked a bit early. Witness their 4-5 SU, 2-6 ATS recent mark and Round 1 survival (87-85) against Arizona St. in a game that was just as evenly played in the stats as the final score. Far prefer the brilliant coaching of Belein, who remains on pace to return his Wolves to the Final Four. Loss of PG Burke and backcourt mate Hardaway, along with the injury to McGary, was expected to doom the fortunes of Michigan. But, all Belein has done is win the rugged Big 10 with a 15-3 SU mark before falling to his double avenging rival in the CCT. A nice bounce back in Round 1, 57-40 vs. Wofford, showed the coaching versatility of Belein. His Wolves controlled the boards with a +9 margin, held the Terriers to a single triple, and outshot them 48 to 34%. There is brilliant backcourt play from Stauskas, Levert, and Walton along with efficient interior work by committee. Must note the outstanding record of Belein, that finds him to be an amazing 59-36 ATS in neutral court games. That is no accident! Nor is the fact that Michigan commits just 9 TOs per game. With 76% FT shooting, it will be no surprise to see them extend any late game margin.






Harvard vs. Michigan St. (-7) 8:40 ET TNT Spokane, WA


3% Harvard (+7)


My bad for fading my meal ticket, the Harvard Crimson, against an impotent offense of Cincinnati, whose clueless coach Cronin continues to embarrass himself on the sidelines. Since the Bearcats could shoot just 37% from the field, with only 5 assists (tying Colorado for the worst mark of the day), Harvard survived, despite missing 11 shots from the stripe. They used their offensive patience and teamwork to put 5 players in the scoring column with 9 or more. In years gone by, the Crimson were satisfied with their invitation to The Dance. Having lost in this round last year, they will enter with positive hopes of a victory in this game. Chambers is a ball-handler supreme ably abetted at the point by Curry. Moundou-Missi and Casey man the interior, while Saunders and Rivard are outstanding wing players, who can stick the triple. With the Spartans holding on for a late game cover against the Blue Hens (decided at the foul stripe in the last 5 seconds), this Michigan St. bandwagon will get very crowded. With all players in full health, the track record of Izzo, and the 6-0 ATS run, be weary of hopping on board.






N. Dakota St. vs. San Diego St. (-4) 6:10 ET TNT Spokane, WA


4% San Diego St. (-4)


Technician’s Dream Game of the Day with the Bison pulling the upset and the Aztecs failing to cover in OT driving this line downward to a value price. N. Dakota St. has been on the radar of the linemaker the entire season. That is why, despite 10 consecutive victories and a 26-6 SU mark, that N. Dakota St. is just 12-15 ATS. Not that their victory Thursday night (80-75 in OT vs. Oklahoma) was undeserved. The Bison outshot the Sooners 53 to 35%, surviving 12 triples by Oklahoma (the most of the night, virtually guarantees a cover) by knocking down 20/22 from the stripe. Though 4 Bison scored 11+ points, the killer Bs of Braun and Bjorkland were held to a combined 24 points. Later in the evening, the Aztecs needed OT to fend off the surprising Aggies of the weak WAC. Major issue was Aztec shooting, which saw them make only 39% from the field. Good news is that interior force Davis had a double, double with 10/14 while expected top scorers Thames (23) and Polee (15) combined for 38 points. At a value price, and with the emotions working in our favor, let’s lineup with a San Diego St. team who is 30-4 SU for the season and clearly has the advantage on the pine with veteran HC Fisher against HC Phillips of the Bison. Note that only 4 of the Aztecs wins this season have been by fewer than 4 points.

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Las Vegas Pipeline

10* S.D. State

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Big Al elite Wisconsin badgers

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EXECUTIVE

300 s.d.st
300 wisconsin

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PSYCHIC
(1-5) 5 unit Indiana +2 (WISEGUY)

WIZARD
(1-10)
7 unit Connecticut +3

JT WALKER
(all units same one unit)1 unit Harvard +7

Totals 4 U
(1-100% ratings)Pass

Iceman
(1-3)1 unit Detroit over 5

Genius
(1-10)7 unit Oregon +5

Sports Advisors, Joe Wright
(1-10)7 unit Saint Louis +9.5

Michael Cash Money
(1-10)
8 unit Michigan -4.5

The Sports Report
(1-10)7 unit ND State +3
The Sports Chick
(1-20)Pass

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JdWarriors5
UCONN +3.5 (-102)


Ohio ML (-165)

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Vegas Runner


3* Memphis Grizzlies -135
3* Wisconsin -5 (bought 1/2 pt.)
2* Pacific -8.5

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Scotty Shiller

Saturday, March 22nd, 2014



College Basketball




Oregon @ Wisconsin ( 7:45 PM Eastern )
Play - Oregon +5.5 (-110)
Rating - (6*)


Harvard @ Michigan State ( 8:40 PM Eastern )
Play - Michigan State/Harvard under 136 (-110)
Rating - (5*)




MLB Spring Training


Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals ( 4:05 PM Eastern )
Play - Royals ML (-125)
Rating - (1*)