Dr. Bob
CLEVELAND 23 Indianapolis (-4.5) 22
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Colts are nothing more than a mediocre team that has averaged 5.4 yards per play, allowing 5.4 yppl and has worse than average special teams. Cleveland, however, is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with Derek Anderson back at quarterback and 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. One of my math model favors Cleveland by ½ a point while the other one favors the Colts by 2 points, so the line looks to be too high. Indy applies to a negative 35-87-4 ATS situation and a negative 126-196-16 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggest that the Colts don’t have the characteristics of a team that should be laying points on the road.
San Francisco vs. BUFFALO (-6.5)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
NY JETS (-7.5) 28 Denver 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
It’s just like the Broncos to win consecutive games as underdogs and then lose straight up as a double-digit favorite, which they did last week against Oakland. It is also just like Denver to bounce back this week against a Jets team coming off an upset win. Denver is actually 3-1 straight up as an underdog of pick this season and only 3-5 straight up as a favorite and the Broncos apply to a 103-38-6 ATS underdog bounce-back situation this week. My math model favors New York by 11 points and the other math model favors the Jets by 10, but the negative line value isn’t as significant as the good situation, so I’ll lean slightly with Denver at +7 ½ or more.
Baltimore (-7.0) 14 CINCINNATI 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bengals don’t have much of a chance offensively in this game with the league’s worst offense going up against one of the better defensive teams in the league, but Cincinnati has a pretty good young defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and Baltimore is lacking offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). I like the big home underdog in a low scoring game.
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) 30 Atlanta 21
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
My math model only favors San Diego by 3 points, but the Chargers apply to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator while Atlanta applies to a negative 28-76-3 ATS road letdown situation. San Diego generally plays better at home (23-5-1 ATS at home up to -11 points) and I'll side with the Chargers based on the technical analysis.
NEW ENGLAND (-1.0) 18 Pittsburgh 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
New England quarterback Matt Cassell has played well the last two weeks, but I doubt he’ll be able to continue that good play against the league’s best pass defense (Pittsburgh allowed just 4.4 yards per pass play) and the Patriots don’t figure to get much on the ground either (Pitt allowed only 3.0 ypr). My math model favors Pittsburgh by 2 points in this game, but the Patriots apply to a decent 169-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator so I’ll pass this game.
OAKLAND (-3.0) 24 Kansas City 21
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Raiders won for me last week at Denver, as their improved defense continued their good play since getting rid of over-paid and under-talented CB DeAngelo Hall. Hall was picked on constantly by opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 552 yards on 66 passes thrown to the man he was supposed to be covering, but new CB Chris Johnson has been great in Hall’s place the last 3 weeks and the Raiders have allowed just 5.1 yards per play in those 3 games against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. Kansas City, meanwhile, has improved their offense since going to the spread attack, which rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen ran in college. Thigpen was horrible early in the season running the pro-style attack, but he’s been great since the change to the spread was made in week 8, as the Chiefs have averaged 6.0 yppl in those 5 games against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kansas City’s improved offense and the Raiders’ improved defense are a wash, but the Raiders’ attack (0.7 yppl worse than average) has an advantage over a horrible Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 6.4 yppl and is 1.0 yppl worse than average after compensating for strength of opponent. The Raiders also have excellent special teams and my math model favors Oakland by 7 points in this game. Unfortunately, last week’s upset win at Denver has the Raiders in a negative 22-59-2 ATS letdown situation this week, so I’ll pass this game.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) 23 Chicago 16
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bears hit the road for the 3rd consecutive week, which is not a good situation to be in (Chicago applies to a negative 26-62-1 ATS 3rd consecutive road game angle) and Minnesota applies to a 164-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator. However, my math barely favors Minnesota to win this game, so I ‘ll just lean with the Vikings rather than make them a play.
HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-01 - Stats Matchup
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.
CLEVELAND 23 Indianapolis (-4.5) 22
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Colts are nothing more than a mediocre team that has averaged 5.4 yards per play, allowing 5.4 yppl and has worse than average special teams. Cleveland, however, is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with Derek Anderson back at quarterback and 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively. One of my math model favors Cleveland by ½ a point while the other one favors the Colts by 2 points, so the line looks to be too high. Indy applies to a negative 35-87-4 ATS situation and a negative 126-196-16 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggest that the Colts don’t have the characteristics of a team that should be laying points on the road.
San Francisco vs. BUFFALO (-6.5)
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
This game is part of Dr Bob's Best Bets package, which includes all of Dr. Bob's Best Bets, Strong Opinions and other withheld games. For the analysis of this game and all the Bets and Strong Opinions for this week click here
NY JETS (-7.5) 28 Denver 21
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
It’s just like the Broncos to win consecutive games as underdogs and then lose straight up as a double-digit favorite, which they did last week against Oakland. It is also just like Denver to bounce back this week against a Jets team coming off an upset win. Denver is actually 3-1 straight up as an underdog of pick this season and only 3-5 straight up as a favorite and the Broncos apply to a 103-38-6 ATS underdog bounce-back situation this week. My math model favors New York by 11 points and the other math model favors the Jets by 10, but the negative line value isn’t as significant as the good situation, so I’ll lean slightly with Denver at +7 ½ or more.
Baltimore (-7.0) 14 CINCINNATI 13
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bengals don’t have much of a chance offensively in this game with the league’s worst offense going up against one of the better defensive teams in the league, but Cincinnati has a pretty good young defense (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team) and Baltimore is lacking offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). I like the big home underdog in a low scoring game.
SAN DIEGO (-4.5) 30 Atlanta 21
01:05 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
My math model only favors San Diego by 3 points, but the Chargers apply to a 135-65-5 ATS contrary indicator while Atlanta applies to a negative 28-76-3 ATS road letdown situation. San Diego generally plays better at home (23-5-1 ATS at home up to -11 points) and I'll side with the Chargers based on the technical analysis.
NEW ENGLAND (-1.0) 18 Pittsburgh 17
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
New England quarterback Matt Cassell has played well the last two weeks, but I doubt he’ll be able to continue that good play against the league’s best pass defense (Pittsburgh allowed just 4.4 yards per pass play) and the Patriots don’t figure to get much on the ground either (Pitt allowed only 3.0 ypr). My math model favors Pittsburgh by 2 points in this game, but the Patriots apply to a decent 169-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator so I’ll pass this game.
OAKLAND (-3.0) 24 Kansas City 21
01:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Raiders won for me last week at Denver, as their improved defense continued their good play since getting rid of over-paid and under-talented CB DeAngelo Hall. Hall was picked on constantly by opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 552 yards on 66 passes thrown to the man he was supposed to be covering, but new CB Chris Johnson has been great in Hall’s place the last 3 weeks and the Raiders have allowed just 5.1 yards per play in those 3 games against teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. Kansas City, meanwhile, has improved their offense since going to the spread attack, which rookie quarterback Tyler Thigpen ran in college. Thigpen was horrible early in the season running the pro-style attack, but he’s been great since the change to the spread was made in week 8, as the Chiefs have averaged 6.0 yppl in those 5 games against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team. Kansas City’s improved offense and the Raiders’ improved defense are a wash, but the Raiders’ attack (0.7 yppl worse than average) has an advantage over a horrible Chiefs’ defense that has allowed 6.4 yppl and is 1.0 yppl worse than average after compensating for strength of opponent. The Raiders also have excellent special teams and my math model favors Oakland by 7 points in this game. Unfortunately, last week’s upset win at Denver has the Raiders in a negative 22-59-2 ATS letdown situation this week, so I’ll pass this game.
MINNESOTA (-3.5) 23 Chicago 16
05:15 PM Pacific Time Sunday, Nov-30 - Stats Matchup
The Bears hit the road for the 3rd consecutive week, which is not a good situation to be in (Chicago applies to a negative 26-62-1 ATS 3rd consecutive road game angle) and Minnesota applies to a 164-104-8 ATS statistical profile indicator. However, my math barely favors Minnesota to win this game, so I ‘ll just lean with the Vikings rather than make them a play.
HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
05:30 PM Pacific Time Monday, Dec-01 - Stats Matchup
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.
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