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Re: 11-29-08
Scotty Spreitzer
tko oklahoma state
tko kentucky
ko utah state
5* Vandy
Scotty Spreitzer
tko oklahoma state
tko kentucky
ko utah state
5* Vandy
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Re: 11-29-08
Larry's Oddsmaker's Error-CBB:5-1 TY in BKB
Part of Larry's 3-0 CBB sweep on Friday was an Oddsmaker's Error winner on Rhode Island. He's now 5-1 (83.3% ATS) with his Oddsmaker's Error plays TY in BKB. Larry's on a superb 15-4-1 (78.9% ATS) run with his last 20 CBB releases, so "sitting on the sidelines" for his latest Oddsmaker's Error play, is "not an option!"
VCU RamsComment
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Re: 11-29-08
Dr.Bob
2 Star Selection
**GEORGE MASON (-5 ½) over Ohio
01:00 PM Pacific - Rotation 540
Ohio is 2-0 with impressive wins of 74-55 over William & Mary and 79-68 at Austin Peay, but a look at the boxscores of those games reveals an abundance of positive random variance that the Bobcats are not likely to be blessed with going forward. Ohio made a ridiculous 16 of 29 3-point shots (55%) in those two victories while their opponents made just 9 of 38 shots (23.7%) from beyond the arc. Ohio made just 34.6% of their 3-pointers last year and calculating the expected number of 3-pointers made for each player based on his 3-point percentage since last season would predict 39.4% 3-pointers made, which would be an expected 11.4 made 3-pointers out of 29 attempts rather than 16 made 3-pointers. Ohio’s opponent’s combine to average 36.7% 3-pointers made this season, but those teams made just 23.7% against Ohio. Part of that should be attributed to Ohio’s defense, but the teams that lead the nation in 3-point percentage defense each season allow about 5% less than their opponents would normally make, so I’ll assume that anything under 31% 3-pointers allowed is purely random good luck. At 31% success their opponents would have made 11.8 of their 38 3-point attempts instead of 9. So, Ohio randomly made 4.6 more 3-pointers than could be reasonably expected while their opponents made at least 2.8 fewer 3-pointers than they should have made. That’s 7.4 net 3-pointers on random good luck for Ohio, which translates into 20 points (every extra 3-pointer is 2.7 additional points instead of 3 points since some of the missed 3-pointers would be rebounded by the offense and converted into points) – or 10 points per game. Even with those random 10 points per game for Ohio, George Mason has still performed 0.4 points better this season based on point differentials and strength of schedule. But, instead of being favored by 4 ½ points at home based on this season’s performance, I would favor George Mason by 9 points based on my ratings and even more if I use this year’s game only while taking out random variance in the stats. George Mason has made 31.9% of their 3-pointers while allowed 32.5%, so there is no randomness in their good early season play, as the Patriots have 4 experienced starters and a talented group of young players coming off the bench. A better indication of how a team is playing is 2-point field goal percentage and Ohio has made just 44.6% of their 2-pointers while allowing a horrible 51.4% on shots inside the arc. George Mason, meanwhile, has made 52.4% of their 2-pointers while allowing 48.4% on 2-pointers and they’ve played a tougher schedule than Ohio has. George Mason will dominate this game inside the paint and should win comfortably as long as Ohio doesn’t continue to make over half of their 3-point shots, which is unlikely. In addition to the line value, George Mason applies to a solid 209-122-10 ATS home momentum situation and the Patriots are 56-33-3 ATS as a home favorite of 4 points or more under coach Jim Larranaga (41-19-2 ATS as a favorite from 4 points to 12 points). I’ll take George Mason in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and for 3-Stars at -5 or less.Comment
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