12-24-13

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NCAA Football Game Pick

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 24
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (12/16) Game 211-212: Boise State vs. Oregon State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 91.258; Oregon State 96.110
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 5; 70
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 2 1/2; 65
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-2 1/2); Over

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Hawaii Bowl betting: What bettors need to know

Boise State Broncos vs. Oregon State Beavers (-3, 63.5)

SHERATON HAWAII BOWL STORYLINES:

1. After turning Boise State into a BCS buster, Chris Petersen left to become the new coach in Washington. Although the school announced the hiring of former Broncos assistant and Arkansas State coach Bryan Harsin to replace Petersen next season, linebackers coach Bob Gregory will lead the team in Honolulu on Dec. 24 against Oregon State in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. Boise State went 92-12 and won a pair of BCS bowl games in eight seasons under Peterson.

2. Sean Mannion (4,403 passing yards, 2nd nationally) and Brandin Cooks (Pac-12 record 120 receptions for an FBS-high 1,670 receiving yards) make the Beavers exciting to watch. Oregon State averaged 43.8 points during a six-game win streak, but has seen that mark fall to 21 per game during its five-game skid.

3. Boise State has won four straight bowl games, but failed to reach the 10-win mark for the first time since 2005 – the year before Petersen took over. Oregon State is 5-2 in the postseason under coach Mike Riley, but has dropped two straight since defeating Pittsburgh in the 2008 Sun Bowl.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The line opened with Oregon State as 2.5-point faves and they have been bet to -3. The total has dropped from 65 to 63.5.

WEATHER: There is a 45 percent chance of rain with an 18 mph wind blowing towards the South end zone.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (8-4, 6-6 ATS): Quarterback Joe Southwick, who missed four games with a broken ankle, returned to start in the regular-season finale but was pulled after throwing for a touchdown on the opening drive. Grant Hedrick, who stepped up with 15 TD passes and five interceptions in Southwick’s absence, went the rest of the way for Boise State – leaving the identity of the starting quarterback in some doubt. The Broncos rank 93rd in pass defense, making the Beavers a less-than-ideal matchup.

ABOUT OREGON STATE (6-6, 6-6 ATS): Mannion averaged 427.4 yards passing and 4.1 touchdowns during the Beavers’ 6-1 start, but has seen those numbers drop to 282.2 and 1.4 during the losing streak. One positive to come out of the team’s Nov. 29 setback against Oregon was the success of the FBS’ 120th-ranked rushing attack, which generated 231 yards – nearly double the team’s previous season high. “It’s a picture of who we want to be and what we’re going to shoot for, both in a bowl game and next year,” Riley said about his team’s balanced 545-yard effort.

TRENDS:

* Boise State is 4-1 ATS in its past five bowl games.
* Oregon State is 1-4 ATS in its last five versus the MWC.
* Over is 4-1 in Boise State's last five neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Oregon State's last five non-conference games.

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GoodFella

2* Oregon St. Pick (ML)

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Prediction Machine

Bowl Side
212 ORE ST. vs BOISE -2.5 8.2 57.9% $58
Straight-Up Picks
212 ORE ST. vs BOISE 34.5 26.3 61.3%
Over/Under Picks
212 BOISE vs. ORE ST. 63 60.8 - Under 52.6 $2

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Cooper Wins

Game #1: Boise State Broncos @ Oregon State Beavers
Over 64

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Insider Angles
NCAA Football 2013-14 Bowl Previews
Hawaii Bowl - Boise State vs. Oregon State (-2½) - Tuesday, December 24, 8:00 ET
Few bowl teams struggled down the stretch as badly as Oregon State did, as the Beavers backed
into this game despite losing their last five games in a row following a 6-1 start. Yes, they have
one of the best quarterbacks in the nation in Sean Mannion, but they were very one-dimensional
averaging 382.1 passing yards per game but just 86.0 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per carry. Boise
State may have lost long-time coach Chris Peterson to the Washington Huskies, but they are the
antithesis of Oregon State with a balanced offense ranked 32nd in the country in rushing and 31st
in passing. Bowl underdogs coming off of a home game (Boise State) are 123-87-4, 58.6 percent
ATS since 2000

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From the COLLEGE BOWL GUIDE
STATFOX FORECASTER

HAWAII BOWL:
OREGON STATE (211) AT BOISE STATE (212)
Latest Line: Boise State +3.0; Total: 64.0

Boise State attempts to win its fifth bowl game in as many years when it faces an Oregon State team that hasn't won since mid-October, losing five straight times. The Broncos have won four bowls in a row by an average of 16.0 PPG, but head coach Chris Petersen left for Washington. Interim coach Bob Gregory is tasked with slowing down the Beavers' passing attack which ranks third in the nation (382 YPG). Oregon State QB Sean Mannion (36 TD passes) and Boise QB Grant Hedrick (13 TD in past four games) should both put up big numbers against defenses allowing more than 400 YPG.
FORECASTER: Oregon State 34, Boise State 30

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Boise St, Oregon St tangle in Tuesday's Hawaii Bowl
by Freddy Wander

Hawaii Bowl
Aloha Stadium – Honolulu, HI
Kickoff: Tuesday, Dec. 24, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Oregon State -3, Total: 64

Boise State attempts to win its fifth straight bowl game in as many years when it challenges Oregon State in the Hawaii Bowl on Christmas Eve.

After dropping their first game to FCS school Eastern Washington, the Beavers caught fire with 43.8 PPG during six straight wins, including a 4-0 start in the Pac-12. It has been all downhill from there though, as their schedule got harder and they scored just 21.0 PPG in losing each of their final five games of the season (2-3 ATS). They put up a great effort in their last contest against cross-state rival -- and 24-point favorite -- Oregon, but eventually lost 36-35. This game will be the Beavers' 11th bowl game since 1999, and they are 6-4 SU in their previous 10 contests. Boise State had its first season with fewer than 10 wins since 2005, and was not first or tied for first in the Mountain West Conference for only the fourth time since joining the league in 2001. The Broncos dominated in their eight wins this season, prevailing by double-digits each time, and two of their four losses were also very close as they lost to Fresno State in the final minutes of a 41-40 game, and fell 34-31 in overtime to San Diego State. Since 1999, BSU has been in a bowl game every season besides 2001, and holds a 9-4 SU record in those games including winning their last four by an average of 16.0 PPG. But the Broncos are no longer run by Chris Petersen, who has taken the head coaching job at Washington, and was replaced by interim head coach Bob Gregory for Tuesday's game. Boise State is 3-2 SU (3-1-1 ATS) when facing the Beavers since 2003, but the two teams have not played each other since 2010. Oregon State is 24-7 ATS (77%) since 1992 when coming off two or more consecutive Overs, but the Broncos are 27-8 ATS (77%) after two ATS losses in their previous three games during this same timeframe. The Beavers will not likely have junior LB D.J. Alexander (31 tackles in past three games) because of a neck injury, while Boise State’s second leading wide receiver, Shane Williams-Rhodes (702 rec. yards, 6 TD), is questionable for this game with an ankle injury.

The Beavers were a one-dimensional offense this season, ranking third in the nation in passing yards (382.1 YPG), but were 118th among FBS schools with a putrid 86.0 rushing YPG. Leading the high-octane passing attack is QB Sean Mannion, who is second in the nation with 4,403 passing yards and is tied for third with 36 touchdowns through the air. He has had his troubles with turnovers over the past four games though and has 11 of his 14 interceptions in those games with only 6 TD passes in these 179 pass attempts. Over the team’s six-game winning streak, Mannion had at least 365 yards passing and 3 TD in each game. His favorite target on the season has been junior WR Brandin Cooks, who leads the nation with 1,670 receiving yards on 120 catches (2nd in FBS) and has added 15 touchdowns (T-2nd in nation). He has had 6+ receptions and 80+ receiving yards in each game this season, and has also added 188 rushing yards on 28 carries (6.7 YPC) with two touchdowns. With only 467 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) this season, HB Terron Ward leads the team in that category and has added seven touchdowns as well (4 rushing, 3 receiving). DE Scott Crichton (43 tackles, 6.5 sacks) is considered one of the top pass rushers in the nation, but has had little help around him as the team is giving up 32.1 PPG (96th in nation) and recently allowed a season-high 69 points to Washington on Nov. 23. The Beavers have been especially terrible in defending the run, allowing 193 rushing YPG on 5.2 YPC this season.

The Broncos are good, but not great, in both the passing game (269 YPG, 31st in nation) and rushing attack (201.8 YPG, 32nd in FBS) while averaging an impressive 38.8 PPG (17th in nation). Senior QB Joe Southwick (1,654 pass yards, 8.0 YPA, 12 TD, 5 INT) broke his ankle on Oct. 19, but was able to return to action in the last game when he completed 2-of-2 passes for 65 yards and a touchdown. He is expected to be fully healed and ready to go for this game, but in the off-chance he cannot play; dual-threat QB Grant Hedrick (1,443 pass yards, 7.3 YPA, 15 TD, 5 INT) would get the start. He was 4-2 as a starter in place of Southwick, and added his running ability to the offense with 257 rushing yards (4.5 YPC) and six touchdowns, both which ranked second on the team. HB Jay Ajayi has been spectacular this season as the team's leading ground gainer, rushing the ball for 1,328 yards on 5.9 YPC, and finding the end zone 18 times (17 rushing). He had 147 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and added a season-high 104 receiving yards with two total touchdowns in the team’s most recent game. WRs Matt Miller (934 rec. yards, 11 TD) and Shane Williams-Rhodes (702 rec. yards, 6 TD) have been the top ball-catchers for the Broncos this season, but Williams-Rhodes may miss this game as he recovers from an ankle injury. The 303-pound DT Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe (50 tackles) and the Boise State defense has allowed only 23.8 PPG to their opponents this year (37th in FBS), and has compiled 12 takeaways over the past four contests. However, opposing quarterbacks are completing 64.1% of their passes for 248 YPG (7.1 YPA) against the Broncos, which could mean huge numbers for Sean Mannion and the Beavers' passing attack.

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Norm Hitzges

Hawaii Bowl
Oregon St. -3 Boise St.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with East Carolina (-14) on Monday and likes Oregon St. on Tuesday.

The deficit is 1300 sirignanos.

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ALLEN EASTMAN

3-Unit Play. Take #212 Boise State (+3) over Oregon State (8 p.m., Tuesday, Dec. 24)
Hawaii Bowl
I like Boise State in the underdog role. I know that they lost their coach Chris Peterson. But he left behind a very strong and experienced roster. The Broncos seniors want to go out and win one last game and they want to show that they are fine without their coach. Oregon State was another team that was just lucky to get a bowl bid. This team comes into the bowl game on a five-game losing streak. They have no momentum. This same team lost to FCS team Eastern Washington to open the season. Their wins came against bad teams. This Oregon State team should not be in a bowl game and they should not be favored over the far superior team. I think Boise State has something to prove. And I think that they will win this one going away.

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NCAAF

Hawai'i Bowl 12/24
Boise State suspended two QBs during week; reinstated backup but sent former starter Southwick home, bad news for team with an interim coach after Peterson left for Washington. Broncos won six of last eight games after a 2-2 start- they allowed 34+ points in all four losses. Oregon State lost last five games, allowing 37.2 ppg; not sure how they got to a bowl- plus they lost season opener 49-46 to I-AA team. Beavers allowed 30+ points in seven of 12 games, but won 34-30 (-8) at San Diego State, its only game vs Mountain West team this year. Boise lost 38-6 in opener at Washington, its only Pac-12 foe. Underdogs covered four in row and seven of last ten Hawai'i Bowls, with winning side scoring 41+ points in nine of those ten; underdog won SU four of last six years. Boise won last four bowls, beating Pac-12 schools in last two. Oregon State lost its last two bowls, despite being favored in both- their last bowl win was in '08.

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Phil Steele Inside the Pressbox Prediction for Hawaii Bowl:

OREGON ST 34 BOISE ST 27

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Football Crusher
Oregon State -150 over Boise St
(System Record: 47-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 47-45-1