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DOC SPORTS
PRO FOOTBALL
2 Unit Play. #105/#391 Take San Diego Chargers +3 over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Chargers should be 2-0 on the season as they head east for the second straight week. Both of these teams are 1-1, and both of these teams lost to the Texans in games they likely should have won. The Chargers are averaging over 30 points per game, and QB Phillip Rivers is showing signs of his former self. San Diego is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS victory in their previous game.
4 Unit Play. #100/#394 Take Minnesota Vikings -6 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm CBS)
TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEKEND.
Both teams sit at 0-2 on the season. However, the Vikings have shown some signs that they are a much better team. Minnesota was in control last week at Chicago before they feel apart down the stretch. Cleveland, on the other hand, is a complete mess and just cannot score points (1 touchdown this season). Cleveland has lost five straight regular season games and is also 0-5 ATS during this span. Now they traded away running back Trent Richardson and are starting a new quarterback under center. Minnesota put up 30 points against a strong Bears defense, and if they do that today they should cover the spread without any issues. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 home games.
2 Unit Play. #102/#396 Take New England Patriots -7 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Talk about an easy schedule and you will find the New England Patriots at 2-0 ready to play their third straight creampuff to open up the 2013 NFL Regular season. Tom Brady looked terrible last Thursday night against the Jets, but things will get better this week against a team that does not like its coach whatsoever. That goes along with a quarterback that will likely be benched soon. New England is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. New England has too much talent to play this bad. Coming off extra rest, expect this team to win this game by double digits.
2 Unit Play. #95/#405 Take Green Bay Packers -3 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Bengals struggled to put away a terrible Pittsburgh team last Monday night, and now they face a potent offensive team in the Green Bay Packers. Let's see who you would rather have behind Center: Aaron Rogers over Andy Dalton? One quarterback can throw the football downfield, whereas the other one just dinks and dunks. Green Bay is 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Pack is back, and we collect with this short number.
3 Unit Play. #109/#409 Take Atlanta Falcons +3 over Miami Dolphins (4:05 pm FOX) The Dolphins sit at 2-0 on the season, with 2 road victories against so-so teams, but now they face their toughest test of the season playing the Atlanta Falcons. The underdog is 41-18 in the last 59 games that the Dolphins are involved in. Atlanta plays New England next week, and thus they know the importance of winning this game and getting above the .500 mark. Atlanta dominated last week against St. Louis before they took the pedal off of the gas. That will not happen today, and even if they do and only win by three points, we still collect since they are the underdog. Atlanta is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games on grass. Miami has not covered the spread in 4 straight Week 3 games. -
ROBERT FERRINGO
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
I am not a huge fan of this weekend's NFL card. So we will spread our action around rather than loading up on one or two plays, as we have the past two weeks. I still say we have gotten absolutely screwed the last two NFL weeks, with our top plays winning but not covering (which only happens about 20 percent of the time; 80 percent of the time the team that wins covers). So let's just keep doing our thing and eventually these things will even out for us.
2-Unit Play. Take #407 N.Y. Giants (+1) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
2-Unit Play. Take #400 Dallas (-3.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
2-Unit Play. Take #410 Miami (-2.5) over Atlanta (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #392 Tennessee (-3) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #394 Minnesota (-6.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #405 Green Bay (-2.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. Take #395 Tampa Bay (+7) over New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: 1-Unit Play. Take #412 San Francisco (-3) over Indianapolis (4 p.m.) AND Take #394 Minnesota (+0.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m.)
This Week's Totals
3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.5 Arizona at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.0 Tampa Bay at New England (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.5 Atlanta at Miami (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 47.0 St. Louis at Dallas (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 49.0 Detroit at Washington (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)Comment
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ALLEN EASTMAN
5-Unit Play. Take #397 Houston (-2.5) over Baltimore (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
This line jumped out at me. And the stats from my NFL 411 System backed it up. Baltimore is not used to being a home underdog. This is a very unfamiliar role for them. But Houston has been better the first two weeks of the season and is 2-0. The Ravens struggled with a bad Cleveland team and was blown out by Denver. This Baltimore team is not as strong as the one that won the championship last year. And Houston beat Baltimore 43-13 last year at home in a game that was a blowout from start to finish. The oddsmakers remember that game even if the public bettors don't. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and Houston has a big advantage on offense and defense. Joe Flacco is going to continue to struggle and the Ravens could be without Ray Rice in this game. I will go with the books with this one. Take Houston.
5-Unit Play. Take #405 Green Bay (-2.5) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
Both of these teams are coming off big wins. Green Bay blew out Washington in its home opener. Cincinnati beat Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. The Bengals are 0-1 against the NFC North teams this year after losing at Chicago to open the season. The Packers found their ground game last week with James Starks. If they get the running game going with Aaron Rodgers and the passing game this team will be tough to beat. Mike McCarthy is 32-24 in his career on the road. These Packers teams can win away from home. And I think that the Bengals will have a letdown after a big Monday Night Football win and cover. This line opened with the Bengals as a small favorite. But all the sharp money came in on the Packers and the line has moved. I smell something cooking. And my numbers back it up. Take the Packers here.
4-Unit Play. Take #407 New York Giants (+1) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This is a matchup of teams that are both 0-2. Both teams need this game. But I will back the Giants in this one. They have a proven coach and proven quarterback. There is too much uncertainty in the Carolina locker room. And the Panthers have lost two heartbreakers to start the season. I am not sure how they will bounce back. The Giants beat Carolina 36-7 last year when these two teams met in Charlotte. I think that they can do the same thing here. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in this series and I think that they will snap a 0-5 ATS fall this season. The Panthers are just 4-18 in games in the first half of the year in the past three seasons and their early season struggles continue. The Giants are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog and 6-1 ATS when they are an underdog off a loss. Take the Giants.
4-Unit Play. Take #411 Indianapolis (+10) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
The Colts made huge news with their trade for Trent Richardson. I think he will be a big help the Indianapolis running game. The Colts will be able to move the ball and score against San Francisco. And I think that they can get a road win here. San Francisco was blown out last week. They are struggling on offense and the 49ers could have a letdown after that big game in Seattle. San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS after a loss of two touchdowns or more and have not bounced back well after getting blown out. The Colts are 8-1 ATS after a loss and Andrew Luck has been very good as an underdog in his first two years. I think that this will be a very competitive game and I will gladly take the points.
2-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 40.5 Jacksonville at Seattle (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
The Jacksonville offense is the worst in the NFL. The Jaguars have only scored 11 total points in their first two games. They are really struggling at quarterback and star running back Maurice Jones Drew is hurt. The Jaguars only managed nine points against the Raiders and now have to face one of the best defenses in the NFL. Seattle is getting healthy and getting players back on that defense and they will shut down the Jaguars. They are No. 1 in points allowed with just five points per game allowed by the Seahawks. Jacksonville coach Gus Bradley used to be the defensive coordinator for Seattle. I think that this will help him plan for the Seattle offense. And the Seahawks offense has only averaged 20 points in its first two games. Seattle should win in a blowout and I could see a shutout. Both of these teams will just be running out the clock in the second half.Comment
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VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
NFL FOOTBALL PLAYS
2 Unit Play. #394 Take Minnesota -6 ½ over Cleveland (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 22)
What can I say about Cleveland Browns football! A big trade on Wednesday sends Trent Richardson to the Colts for draft picks and now the Browns get Willis McGahee from the unemployment line. The Vikings are no -6 ½ point favorite at home to nobody but with this Cleveland team I will bite. Oh yes the Brwons QB will be Brian Hoyer this Sunday! What a joke this team is. Minnesota is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games and the Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games.
3 Unit Play. #405 Take Green Bay -2 ½ over Cincinnati (1:00p.m., Sunday, Sept 22)
A short week for the Bengals as they are coming off a big home win Monday night against Pittsburgh. Too bad the Bengals can't face an offense like Pittsburgh this week because they face Aaron Rodgers and the Packers at home. The Packers defense will be happy to face a non-mobile QB this Sunday as Andy Dalton is not Kaepernick or RGIII. Packers defense will be the key for this rare NFL road victory and I see Green Bay holding the offense of Cincinnati to less then 3-TD's and the Packers QB Rodgers has a big game.
6 Unit Play. #412 Take San Francisco -10 over Indianapolis (4:25p.m., Sunday, Sept 22)
(Game of the Month)
Both team are coming off horrible losses in Week #2 and yes you can make a case of who had the worse week but I have to say SF did! The 49ers got embarrassed on National TV in Seattle last Sunday night and Seahawks beat them and beat them bad 29-3 and the 49ers offense was missing the whole game. The Colts come to the West Coast after losing at home to what I think is a mediocre Miami squad and the Colts lost another stud in left guard Donald Thomas. The Colts will get Trent Richardson in the backfield for Andrew Luck but I see the 49ers defense playing this game angry. Andrew Luck was sacked multiple times at home against the Dolphins and I see Luck running for his life again in San Fran and I actually feel bad for the Colts coming to San Francisco because the 49ers will be playing this game very pissed off. 49ers roll in this game and QB Colin Kaepernick has a big game with his legs and arm and the 49ers win this game by double-digits. Both teams will be looking for a better showing this Week #3 but with San Francisco being at home and losing badly against their arch rivals Seattle this game gets ugly fast, quick, and over by the 3rd quarter. San Francisco is 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 home games and the Colts are 1-4 ATS in the month of September.Comment
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STRIKE POINT SPORTS
NFL Plays
7-Unit Play. Take #398 Baltimore (+2.5) over Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
Note: This is our NFL Underdog of the Year
Is Houston a better team than the Ravens, maybe. Should they be favored in this contest, possibly. Have they looked good in their two wins thus far this season, nope. Baltimore is one of the most difficult places to play for opposing teams and the Ravens are ready to make a statement in front of their home crowd. The Ravens have not looked all that great thus far this season, but you have to take a few things into consideration. In their first game they had to travel to a Denver team that was ready for revenge, and forget the fact that this game should have been IN BALTIMORE. Then in Week 2 they didn't look very efficient, yet they came out on top on the scoreboard, versus a Cleveland team that has a better defense than most people think.
This week the Ravens will be ready. They know that Houston is 2-0 and one of the better teams in the AFC, and they also know that if they win they will be tied for first in their division despite their less-than-stellar play. The Baltimore Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their previous seven meetings with the Texans and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning record.
I know that the Ravens are dinged up, and I know that the Texans look better on paper. I know this isn't a typical Ravens defense, and I know the public is all over the Texans on this short, road line. I also know that I LOVE the Ravens in this spot. Baltimore is the type of team that can always win the big game in front of their home crowd. Each and every year this Ravens squad gets the job done when they need to.
Don't buy in to the Ed Reed returns to his former home hype. One of my favorite betting spots is going against the player that is coming back home. People always want to jump on the "this player or that player wants revenge versus their former team angle," and that just isn't smart. When dealing with a former coach returning to play his team there is some value in that, but not the player.
Take the home squad in this one as the Ravens send the Texans to their first loss of the season and they surprise a lot of people in doing so.
4-Unit Play. Take #392 Tennessee (-3) over San Diego (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 22)
This Titans squad has really surprised me this season with their improved defense. I like how the Titans have looked versus two teams that are know for their defensive prowess and yet Tennessee hasn't backed down. The Titans shoved the Steelers around all game long in Week 1, and they had the Texans right where they wanted them in Week 2, before losing on an overtime TD. San Diego, similar to Tennessee lost in a hard fought game to the Texans and stole a win from the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend. Many would say that the Chargers could be favored in this game and the only reason Tennessee is favored is due to their home turf. I am not one of those people. I just don't like how the Chargers match up with the Titans in this one and I see Philip Rivers struggling versus Tennessee's defense. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games versus the AFC and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. San Diego has had success versus Tennessee in the past but this Titans team is better than they have been. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
4-Unit Play. Take #415 Buffalo (+2.5) over New York Jets (4:30 p.m, Sunday, Sept. 22)
This Jets team has looked alright thus far this season, but in no way do I think they are a better team than the Bills. Buffalo should be 2-0 right now with wins over New England and Carolina. If it wasn't for a last 10-seconds field goal out of the Patriots the Bills would be the shocker of the season. I feel that the Bills are just "clicking" at the current time and that they will head into Jets/Giants Stadium and knock off the home squad. Buffalo has gotten outstanding play out of their new quarterback EJ Manuel and he should perform at a high level again versus the Jets. Yes, New York's defense has looked better than expected but now they pressure is on to perform in front of their home crowd, and to win a game in which they are favored. I just don't feel that the Jets should be favored in this one. Buffalo is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus the AFC East, while the Jets are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Take the road team in this one as they are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the two teams.Comment
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Sunday's NFL Week 3 betting cheat sheet: Early action
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)
Star receiver Andre Johnson suffered a concussion in the game against the Titans but is expected to be cleared to play. Johnson is tied for the NFL lead with 20 receptions and Houston appears to have found a sensational complement in first-round pick DeAndre Hopkins (12 receptions, 183 yards).
Baltimore has a key player ailing in running back Ray Rice, who injured his left hip flexor in the contest against Cleveland and hasn’t participated in practices. “He’s not going to need the practice to play in the game,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said.
LINE: Houston opened -2.5 and moved to -1.5. Total moved from 44.5 to 45.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (-5.0) - Baltimore (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens +1
WEATHER: Temperatures mid 70s, partly cloudy, winds NNW 11 mph.
TRENDS:
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1, 46.5)
New York's 10 turnovers - seven of which have been Eli Manning interceptions - are a major cause for concern and have put the defense in a tough spot. The offense has been effective at moving the ball, mostly through the air, and ranks fifth in the league in total yards, but the ground game has to come along and the Giants need to hang onto the ball.
The Panthers find themselves in an 0-2 hole after losing their first two games by a combined six points, including a 24-23 defeat against Buffalo last week. The Panthers have been balanced on offense but they've been far from explosive, ranking 27th in the league with 280.5 total yards per game.
LINE: Carolina opened -1 and moved to +1. Total moved from 45.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-1.0) + Carolina (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +1
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, 22 percent chance of early showers, winds 5 north 5 mph.
TRENDS:
* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick, 48.5)
Detroit is 2-0 against Washington under coach Jim Schwartz, with both victories coming at home. Calvin Johnson had 101 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-25 triumph over the Redskins in their last meeting on Oct. 31, 2010.
Facing a large deficit, the Redskins have been offensive juggernauts in the fourth quarter, outscoring Philadelphia and Green Bay by a combined 26-0 over the final 15 minutes.
LINE: Open pick bounced between -1 and +1. Total moved from 48 to 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (+1.0) - Washington (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins -1.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NNW 12 mph.
TRENDS:
* Under is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Washington.
San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 43.5)
Philip Rivers leads a rejuvenated offense that is averaging more than 30 points per game. The only problem: San Diego has allowed as many points as it has scored, thanks to a defense that has surrendered the most passing yards in the league through two weeks.
The Tennessee Titans' defense has helped compensate for a sluggish offense through the first two games of the season. Titans RB Chris Johnson comes into the week ranked sixth in rushing yards (166) but second in attempts (50), averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.
LINE: Opened Tennessee -1 and moved to -3. Total steady at 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+2.0) - Tennessee (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -2
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, clear skies, winds NNE 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Chargers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)
Carson Palmer has injected some life into Arizona's passing game, but the ground game hasn't been as effective and running back Rashard Mendenhall (toe) is questionable. Palmer should have tight end Rob Housler back in the lineup after missing the first two games with a sore ankle, and the Cardinals have eased receiver Larry Fitzgerald along in practice in hopes he can play through a hamstring injury.
While the Saints' offense has struggled to find the end zone, coordinator Rob Ryan's revamped defense has limited its first two opponents to 320 yards and 15.5 points per game. The overhauled defense did a solid job against Atlanta in Week 1 but was dominant in a 16-14 win versus Tampa Bay, allowing 273 total yards - the Saints' lowest total since Week 15 of the 2011 season.
LINE: Arizona opened -9.5 and moved to -7. Total moved from 48.5 to 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+3.5) + New Orleans (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -9.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last four meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (-8.5, 43.5)
Quarterback Josh Freeman is under siege after consecutive subpar outings - he was only 9-for-22 for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Saints - to spark speculation that he could lose his starting job to rookie Mike Glennon. The Buccaneers have dangerous weapons in second-year running back Doug Martin (209 yards rushing) and wideout Vincent Jackson (231 yards receiving), and the defense has been stout in allowing an average of 17 points.
With wideout Danny Amendola (groin) and running back Shane Vereen (wrist) set to miss a second straight game and tight end Rob Gronkowski still rehabbing from multiple offseason surgeries, Tom Brady has been forced to lean on Julian Edelman (20 receptions) and untested rookies in the receiving corps. Starting running back Steven Ridley has rushed for only 86 yards in two games while the defense has forced six turnovers to tie for second in the league.
LINE: Open New England -7 and moved to -8.5. Total moved from 45 to 43.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+4.0) + New England (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -11.5
WEATHER: Temps low 70s, 83 percent chance of rain, winds WSW 7 mph.
TRENDS:
* Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Patriots' last 10 home games.
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, 49)
While Aaron Rodgers' Week 2 performance was typical, the Packers got a surprising 132-yard effort on the ground from running back James Starks, who replaced Eddie Lacy after the rookie left the game with a concussion. The Packers were forced to juggle their secondary last week after three DBs suffered hamstring injuries. All are questionable for Sunday.
Cincinnati has won the past two meetings against Green Bay and sacked Rodgers six times in its most recent game (2009) but it will be without veteran defensive end Robert Geathers who joined three Bengal linebackers on injured reserve. While questions still abound on Andy Dalton's deep passing ability, he has thrown for 280 and 282 yards in his first two starts and unveiled a new weapon in athletic rookie tight end Tyler Eifert on Monday.
LINE: Cincinnati opened +1 and moved to +2.5. Total moved from 46.5 to 49.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.0) - Cincinnati (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals +1.5
WEATHER: Temps high 60s, clear skies, winds NNE 6 mph.
TRENDS:
* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 3.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)
St. Louis is attempting to start 2-1 for the first time since 2006. The Rams will look for more consistency out of high-priced free agent signing Jared Cook, who caught seven passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 but managed only one grab last weekend.
The last time the Cowboys faced the Rams, DeMarco Murray rushed for a franchise-record 253 yards on Oct. 23, 2011. However, Murray only managed 25 yards on 12 attempts in last week's loss to the Chiefs, a game in which Dallas was unable to force any turnovers after creating six miscues against the New York Giants in Week 1.
LINE: Dallas steady at -3.5. Total moved from 46.5 to 47.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+2.5) + Dallas (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -3
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 40.5)
Cleveland was already struggling to produce offense with just 16 points in two games and trading RB Trent Richardson, who recorded 950 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns as a rookie, gives an offense starting a third-string quarterback even fewer options. Brian Hoyer starts in place of Brandon Weeden, who injured his thumb in last week's loss to Baltimore.
Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder, who was 16-of-30 against Chicago, is reportedly on the hot seat and could lose snaps to backup Matt Cassel unless his play improves. Ponder is 88-for-127 passing with five touchdowns and two interceptions in his last four games against AFC opponents.
LINE: Minnesota opened -4 and moved to -6.5. Total moved from 41 to 40.5.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+5.0) - Minnesota (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Vikings -5.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:
* Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Browns last six road games.Comment
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Tale of the Tape: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers
Two of the NFL's most storied franchises do battle on Sunday Night Football, as the Marc Trestman-led Chicago Bears visit Heinz Field to face the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers. Chicago is coming off impressive victories over the Cincinnati Bengals and Minnesota Vikings, and enter hostile territory as a one-point favorite against the winless Steelers.
We break down this Week 3 matchup with our betting tale of the tape:
Offense
Trestman has quickly put his stamp on the Bears, building upon his reputation as a creative offensive mind by heavily involving running back Matt Forte in the passing game. Forte, who had just 44 receptions a season ago, already has 14 through the first two weeks - and on only 16 targets. Chicago finds itself near the middle of the pack in rushing and passing yards, but is in the top five in third-down conversions (13-for-26) and has made the most of its scoring chances, racking up five touchdowns in seven red zone trips.
The Steelers have been terrible on offense. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, clearly missing Miami-bound deep threat Mike Wallace and injured tight end Heath Miller, has thrown for a pedestrian 442 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Pittsburgh has been even worse on the ground, compiling just 75 rushing yards on 31 carries for a dreadful 2.4 yards-per-carry average. While Miller's return should bolster the passing game, the continued absence of rookie rusher Le'Veon Bell should mean more struggles in the rushing game.
Edge: Chicago
Defense
The Bears' defense is no longer the vaunted unit of days gone by, but has done just enough to prevail in each of the first two weeks. Chicago was gashed through the air in the opener against Cincinnati but held the Bengals to just 63 rushing yards en route to a 24-21 win. Minnesota doubled that total in Week 2, but was limited to 227 yards through the air as the Bears prevailed 31-30. One area of concern is the difficulty the Bears are having at getting to opposing quarterbacks; Chicago has just two sacks through two games, ahead of only Minnesota, Arizona and Pittsburgh.
Speaking of the Steelers, their defense has been mostly solid through two games. They're ninth in the league in passing yards allowed (198.5 per game) and, while they've allowed the ninth-most rushing yards, they've come on 76 carries - second only to Philadelphia, which has played one more game. In other words, teams are trying to run all over the Steelers - and it isn't really working, as opposing clubs are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. Pittsburgh has yet to yield a run longer than 14 yards.
Edge: Pittsburgh
Special Teams
Chicago has boasted one of the most potent kick-return units in the league through two games, returning seven kickoffs for 294 yards - good for an average of 42 per attempt. The punt-return game is a different story, as the Bears have managed just one return yard on two attempts. They have also been generous to opponents on kickoff attempts, surrendering Cordarelle Patterson's 105-yard return to open last weekend's narrow win over the Vikings. Chicago has punted just once this season.
The Steelers find themselves near the middle of the pack in kickoff return yardage, averaging 22 yards on six attempts. They've had a 40-yard punt return but their other two attempts have netted a total of minus-two yards. Pittsburgh has only had to defend two of its own kickoffs - and has done a marvelous job in doing so, allowing just 17 total yards. The Steelers have had to punt 10 times - tied with Baltimore for the second-most in the league - but has limited opponents to 85 return yards.
Edge: Chicago
Notable Quotables
"They're not playing their front to rush the passer and defend the run on the way to the quarterback. They're rushing the passer to stop the run - and they're doing it with internal blitzes and people coming from different levels, which makes it harder to one-on-one block."
-- Bears head coach Marc Trestman
"When you hand it off 14 times in the first half for a three-yard average, I don't care what you call it, it has to be better. Those guys know it, our guys up front know it, our receivers know it. To have an efficient run game, we need to do a better job across the board."
-- Steelers offensive coordinator Todd HaleyComment
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Sunday's MLB American League betting cheat sheets
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Sunday's American League games:
Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians (-230, 8.5)
Hot pitching stat: Indians right-hander Corey Kluber is 2-0 over his last four starts while surrendering just seven earned runs in 22 innings over that stretch.
Cold batting stat: Cleveland OF Nick Swisher is just 4-for-17 with six strikeouts in his career against Houston left-hander Erik Bedard.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: Cleveland is 10-2 in its last 12 Sunday games.
Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers (-290, 8)
Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Anibal Sanchez has been sensational at home, going 8-2 with a 2.45 ERA in 13 starts.
Cold batting stat: White Sox 1B/DH Adam Dunn is a .233 career hitter with zero home runs and 14 strikeouts in 30 at-bats against Sanchez.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 3-0-3 in Sanchez's last six starts against teams with losing records.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox (-158, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Red Sox left-hander Felix Doubront has surrendered 10 runs on 10 hits with seven walks over his last two starts, a span of 7 1/3 innings.
Hot batting stat: Boston 3B WIll Middlebrooks has two home runs and a double in three career at-bats against Toronto knuckleballer R.A. Dickey.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 90 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow out to right field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: Boston is 8-1 in Doubront's last nine Sunday starts.
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays (OFF, OFF)
Hot pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Scott Feldman has surrendered just seven home runs in 82 innings since joining Baltimore from the Chicago Cubs.
Hot batting stat: Rays OF David DeJesus is a scorching 6-for-11 with a homer, three RBIs and six walks lifetime versus Feldman.
Weather: Dome.
Key betting note: The over is 8-2 in umpire Tim Welke's last 10 Orioles games behind home plate.
Texas Rangers at Kansas City Royals (-128, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Royals right-hander James Shields has fared well against Texas in his career, going 7-3 with a 2.66 ERA in 12 starts.
Cold batting stat: Kansas City DH Billy Butler and OF Alex Gordon are a combined 2-for-20 against Rangers starter Alexi Ogando.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to left field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Texas is 6-1 in Ogando's last seven road starts.
Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels (-127, 7)
Cold pitching stat: Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is just 8-13 with a 3.95 ERA - well above his career mark of 3.19 - in 34 career starts against the Angels.
Hot batting stat: Angels OF Mike Trout is a .405 lifetime hitter with a home run and nine RBIs in 39 at-bats versus Fernandez.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 6 mph.
Key betting note: Los Angeles is 6-0 in lefty C.J. Wilson's previous six starts against the Mariners.
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics (-230, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Athletics right-hander Sonny Gray is 2-1 with a 1.75 ERA and 26 strikeouts over his last four starts.
Cold batting stat: Members of the Minnesota roster are a collective 4-for-18 with seven strikeouts against Gray.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The road team is 4-1 in umpire Tim McClelland's last five games behind home plate.
Interleague
San Francisco Giants at New York Yankees (-145, 8.5)
Cold pitching stat: Yankees left-hander Andy Pettitte is 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts against San Francisco.
Cold batting stat: Giants 2B Marco Scutaro is 5-for-25 in his career against Pettitte; no other San Francisco player has faced him more than eight times.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 11 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 7-1-1 in Pettitte's last nine home starts.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:48 p.m. ET Saturday.Comment
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Sunday's MLB National League betting cheat sheets
Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Sunday's National League games:
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates (-105, 7.5)
Hot pitching stat: Pirates left-hander Jeff Locke has dominated Cincinnati in his career, going 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA in four starts against them.
Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh OF Andrew McCutchen has just one hit - a home run - in 23 career at-bats against Reds starter Bronson Arroyo.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 10-2 in the Pirates' last 12 Sunday games.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies (-200, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Phillies left-hander Cliff Lee has won three consecutive starts, allowing just five runs while racking up 33 strikeouts over that stretch.
Cold batting stat: Members of the Mets' roster are hitting .244 with 42 strikeouts in 156 at-bats versus Lee.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 12 mph.
Key betting note: New York is 2-12 in its last 14 games against a left-handed starter.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-225, 7.5)
Cold pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Dan Haren is 5-5 with a 5.61 ERA and 11 home runs surrendered in 13 home starts.
Hot batting stat: Marlins 3B Placido Polanco is a career .385 hitter with five RBIs in 26 at-bats against Haren.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 9 mph.
Key betting note: The over is 8-2-1 in Haren's previous 11 home starts.
Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs (OFF, OFF)
Cold pitching stat: Braves right-hander Julio Teheran was lit up in his only previous encounter with the Cubs, surrendering five runs on eight hits - including a pair of homers - over five innings.
Cold batting stat: Atlanta 2B Dan Uggla is 1-for-15 with six strikeouts in his career against Cubs right-hander Edwin Jackson.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: The under is 13-3 in Teheran's last 16 starts against teams with losing records.
Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres (+112, 7)
Hot pitching stat: Padres righty Andrew Cashner is coming off back-to-back road wins over Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, surrendering just two runs on five hits over 16 2/3 innings in those starts.
Cold batting stat: San Diego OF Will Venable has just one hit while striking out six times in 11 at-bats lifetime versus Dodgers starter Zack Greinke.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 7 mph.
Key betting note: Los Angeles is 11-1 in Greinke's last 12 starts against teams with losing records.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (+100, 9.5)
Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks starter Patrick Corbin was sensational in his last start against Colorado, allowing one run over eight innings while striking out 10 en route to a 6-1 win.
Hot batting stat: Rockies 1B Jordan Pacheco has seven hits, including a pair of doubles, in 15 career at-bats against Corbin.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 25 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to center field at 8 mph.
Key betting note: Colorado is 1-8 in Nicasio's last nine starts on four days' rest.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (OFF, OFF)
Hot pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Joe Kelly is 5-0 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts and 12 relief appearances away from Busch Stadium in 2013.
Hot batting stat: Members of the St. Louis roster are hitting .364 with a pair of homers in 64 combined at-bats versus Milwaukee starter Wily Peralta.
Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 5 mph.
Key betting note: St. Louis is 8-1 in Kelly's last nine starts against the National League Central.
** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable pitchers as of 8:49 p.m. ET Saturday.Comment
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Sunday Night Baseball: Cardinals at Brewers
by Steve Merril
Sunday Night Baseball takes us to the NL Central where the Brewers are hosting the surging Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (+155, 8.5)
KELLY KEEPS IT GOING FOR ST. LOUIS
Joe Kelly is 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA for St. Louis this season. Kelly has been dealing with a strained calf and he is questionable for this start. The righty has allowed one earned run or less in five of his last seven starts. The Cardinals’ starter does not go deep into games as he has not pitched more than six innings in his last ten outings. Kelly just saw the Brewers at home on September 12th in a game he lost 5-3. He allowed four runs and seven hits in just five innings with four strikeouts and one walk.
WILD WILY PERALTA
Wily Peralta is 10-15 with a 4.34 ERA for Milwaukee. He has been a roller coaster of a starter this season. Peralta has allowed three runs or more in four of his last six starts. The Brewers’ pitcher lost to the Cardinals back on September 10th after giving up three runs and two hits in just over six innings. He faced St. Louis twice in May and gave up 13 runs and 22 hits in those two games. He has electric stuff striking out six or more in four straight games, but he is also prone to bouts of wildness.
INJURY REPORT
St. Louis has a few key players on the injured list. Allen Craig has a sprained left foot and he is out indefinitely. Jaime Garcia, Chris Carpenter, and Jason Motte are all done for the season due to shoulder and elbow ailments. Rafael Furcal is done for the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Milwaukee’s biggest absence isn’t an injury, but a suspension as Ryan Braun is suspended for 65 games for his involvement in the Biogenesis clinic. The Brewers are also without Rickie Weeks (hamstring) and Corey Hart (knee).
TRENDS
Cardinals are 9-1 in Kelly’s last 10 starts
Cardinals are 5-2 Over in their last 7 Sunday games
Brewers are 2-5 in Peralta’s last 7 starts
Brewers are 7-1 Under in Peralta’s last 8 Sunday starts
HITTERS TO WATCH
Matt Carpenter 4-for-8 vs. Peralta
Jon Jay 3-for-9 vs. Peralta
Norichika Aoki 5-for-11 vs. Kelly
Aramis Ramirez 2-for-10 vs. KellyComment
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Sports Cash System
free picks:
Atlanta Falcons +1 over the Miami Dolphins (NFL Football)
Cleveland Browns +6.5 (buy half point to +7) over the Minnesota Vikings (NFL Football)
Buffalo Bills +1 over the New York Jets (NFL Football)Comment
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NFL odds: Week 3 opening line report
Oddsmakers are spreading it on thick in Week 3 of the NFL season, thanks to some lopsided matchups on schedule.
The NFL’s top two teams – Denver and Seattle – take on two of its worst – Oakland and Jacksonville – forcing oddsmakers to pile on the points. The Broncos opened as high as -16.5 hosting the Raiders Monday night while the Seahawks are as high as -20 welcoming the Jaguars to CenturyLink Field Sunday.
“These numbers are made to keep the games equal,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “You treat them just like any other game on the schedule. They just are what they are.”
Double-digit spreads are rare in the parity of the NFL, and two-touchdown chalk is like finding two prizes inside a box of cereal. But getting an NFL spread in the 20-point range is like seeing Big Foot riding a Unicorn through the Lost City of Atlantis. It’s pretty rare.
The 2011 Indianapolis Colts were 20.5-point underdogs visiting the New England Patriots in Week 13 of that season. The Manning-less Colts put up a good fight, losing 31-24 with QB Dan Orlovsky at the helm.
“At this level of points, it will reduce some of the money on this game because people won’t want to get involved,” says Korner, who originally sent out Jacksonville as a suggested 16-point underdog. “I think people will take Jacksonville on a flyer and hope they get a touchdown or two.”
As for the Oakland-Denver matchup, early action has actually taken this spread down a bit, dropping the line from Broncos -16.5 to -14 as of Monday morning. Denver has been impressive in its first two wins, blowing out the Ravens and Giants, while Oakland narrowly lost to the Colts in Week 1 and defeated the Jaguars this past Sunday.
“We’re sending this out trying to overcompensate for the favorite,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested line of Denver 16. “What has Denver done to make us think they won’t play Oakland any different? They’ve done everything right and have clobbered their first two opponents. What’s not to like about Denver.”
“I don’t know how this made it to a Monday Night Football game,” he says. “An old rivalry like this isn’t going to attract people with the way things are going. But having a pointspread on a game like this will attract people. Even if it is this big.”
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 50)
The return of the Walrus - goo goo g'joob - headlines the Thursday nighter, with new Chiefs coach Andy Reid coming back to Philadelphia.
Korner says that while the Eagles are running a different offense and defense, Reid still knows their players better than any coach in the league. He had his oddsmakers suggesting this spread as low as Philadelphia -1.5 before sending out Eagles -3.
“You have to figure Kansas City has the edge,” he says. “There is an incentive for Kansas City’s players to play for their coach. That’s worth more than the Eagles playing against one man. The Chiefs look strong and have a great shot of winning this game. They're something new and more of a mystery to Philadelphia. I don’t see it going to -3.5.”
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1, 44)
Oddsmakers are buying into Miami’s 2-0 start to the season, making them home favorites against the Falcons Sunday. The Dolphins knocked off Indianapolis on the road in Week 2 and Korner admits he wasn’t giving Miami much credit to start the season.
“We had it around -2.5 for Miami,” he says. “Atlanta is a capable team but they match up well against each other. You’re basically looking at home-field advantage with this one. (The Dolphins) kind of snuck up on me. My thoughts are much different now."Comment
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NFL line watch: Washington bettors shouldn't waste time
Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.
Spread to bet now
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick)
If you're a Washington fan, you may want to consider jumping on your team as fast as possible. This line opened at a pick’em (still available at some books), but is already starting to climb.
After holding on for a 34-24 win at home versus Minnesota in their opener, the Lions took to the road for a game in Arizona and lost 25-21 as 1-point favorites in Week 2. With a second straight road contest, games versus the Bears and the Packers looming, and facing a desperate Redskins team this week, the public is going to start jumping on the home side in this situation.
Washington has started the year 0-2 after finishing 10-6 and clinching the NFC East in 2012. It looked flat-footed in the opener versus the Eagles and shell shocked in a 38-20 loss as a 9-point dog in Green Bay last week. It's hard to believe that there are now questions regarding whether or not RG III should make way for backup Kirk Cousins (don't worry Skins fans, coach Mike Shanahan has quashed that line of thinking: "We have a lot of confidence in Robert.").
Lions bettors are keeping an eye on RB Reggie Bush. News early in the week says his knee injury is not as bad as initially thought and that the dynamic back could be in the lineup Sunday. If he's not, expect this line to climb even higher.
Spread to wait on
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
If you're a fan of the 49ers, consider waiting until closer to kickoff before jumping on your team. This line opened at -11.5 and is already dropping.
Teams that make it all the way to the Super Bowl and lose, more often than not, struggle the following season. San Francisco was looking to buck that trend in Week 1 and wiped the floor with the Packers. Last week's divisional battle in Seattle was primed to be a classic as well, but that wasn't the case as the Seahawks handled the visitors 29-3.
Andrew Luck and the 1-1 Colts are quickly garnering interest from the general betting public. Luck returns to the West Coast after stumbling in a 24-20 setback to the Dolphins last week. But with a "cream puff" in Jacksonville on deck, there will be no looking ahead for Indianapolis - perhaps another big reason this line continues to fall.
Total to watch
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (49)
If you're a fan of Overs, you may want to consider jumping on this one right away. This line initially opened at 48.5, but it's already starting to climb. There are still a lot of 49s out there, but a few 49.5s are starting to hit the board.
Peyton Manning already has nine TD passes after the first two games (Denver has a combined 90 points in that span), which has this spread on the rise.
It's hard to get a true read on the Raiders quite yet. They lost 21-17 in Indianapolis in Week 1 - a game which they actually controlled for the most part - and then beat the toothless Jaguars 19-9 in Week 2.
Until someone can actually prove that they can stop Denver's offensive assault, expect the public to keep hammering the Over.Comment
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Big NFL favorites are anything but a sure bet
The Seattle Seahawks opened as 20-point home favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, which is about as rare as a vampire's steak.
There have been only nine other NFL teams favored by 20 points or more since 1985, with those teams going just 1-8 ATS in that time frame. The most recent line of that magnitude was the New England Patriots, who were 20.5-point faves hosting the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2011 season. The Manning-less Colts lost but covered in a 31-24 loss.
Some books have taken money on the Jaguars, dropping that monstrous line to Seattle -19.5, which is even more rare than 20-plus point spreads. There have been only three NFL games with a closing spread of 19.5 points since 1985, with those favorites posting a collective 2-1 ATS mark.
The biggest spread in the past 28 years is 24 points, which has actually shown up twice since 1985. The San Francisco 49ers were 24-point home favorites hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 1993 season. They won but failed to cover in a 21-8 victory. New England was the other 24-point chalk, hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2007 schedule. The Patriots won but fell way short of the spread, edging the Eagles 31-28.
The lone 20-plus point favorite to cover that thick line were the 1991 Buffalo Bills, who beat the Colts 42-6 as a 20-point chalk in Week 7.
The Seahawks aren’t the only NFL team giving a wheelbarrow of points in Week 3. The Denver Broncos host the Oakland Raiders as 14.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football and were as big as -16.5 earlier in the week. Since 1985, favorites between 14 and 15 points are just 38-53-3 ATS (42 percent).
Overall, favorites of two touchdowns (-14) or more are 87-111-6 ATS (187-17 SU) since 1985, covering those massive piles of chalk at just a 44 percent rate.
The biggest underdog to ever win outright during that span were the 1995 Washington Redskins, who stunned the Dallas Cowboys, 24-17, as 17.5-point underdogs in Week 14.
Note: The most profitable big favorites are teams set between -15 and -16, going 21-15 ATS over the last 28 seasons.Comment
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