9-21-13

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Dr. Bob

3* Georgia Tech

2* Penn State

2* Maryland

Strong Opinions
Georgia
Washington State

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Winning Points:
NCAA BEST: San Jose St, Syracuse (said 14-3 college picks)
Preferred: Wyoming, Toledo, San Diego St., LSU

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Spartan
Triple Star on Missouri -3

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Bryan Leonard | CFB SideSat, 09/21/13 - 12:20 PM *†
double-dime bet
307 North Texas 33.0 (-110) Hilton vs 308 GeorgiaAnalysis: 307 North Texas at GeorgiaInspiring come from behind victory last week for the Mean Green who used the southern heat to their advantage in the second half against Ball state. Now sitting at 2-1 on the season without being beat up by superior competition, this Dan McCarney squad could be a surprise money maker for backers the rest of the way. Since McCarney took over the program in 2011 the Mean Green have been road underdogs at BCS programs three times, cashing each game. As a 27 1/2 point dog to #15 ranked Kansas State they easily covered 35-21. As a 44 point underdog at #3 LSU North Texas lost 41-14, another easy spread cover. In 2011 they played at #2 Alabama and easily covered the spread without scoring a point in a 41-0 defeat. That's three covers against ranked opposition by pointspread margins of 13 1/2, 17 and 6. North Texas won't fall victim to the Georgia heat here and with a bye on deck the Bulldogs get their full attention.
Georgia is coming off a bye but with this game sandwiched between Clemson, South Carolina and LSU we can see the Bulldogs using that extra prep time for the Tigers next week. Last year Georgia was a home favorite of 30 or more three times, failing to cover the number in each game by margins of 4 1/2, 5 1/2 and 15 points. Mark Richt hasn't distinguished himself in the home favorite role overall or hosting non-conference opposition. Georgia has permitted 34 ppg against Clemson and South Carolina along with allowing 5.2 yards per carry on the ground, North Texas has the ability to move the football here. With only LSU and Florida left on the schedule to boost the Bulldogs in the polls, we fully expect Georgia to overlook the Mean Green.
PLAY NORTH TEXAS

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Factsman Saturday:
Wake Forest / Army Over 48

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Doc's

4 Unit Play. #26/#314 Take UMASS Minutemen +32.5 over Vanderbilt Commodores (Saturday 12 pm ESPNNEWS) We used the Minutemen last week on the road in a hostile environment in Manhattan and will ride them again this week at home against Vanderbilt. UMASS has a decent defense, relatively speaking, and playing at home will allow their offense to move the football a little bit and enough to keep this game under a 30-point deficit. The Commodes are coming off a hard loss to South Carolina last Saturday. In this game they were down big early but made it only a 10-point game in the second half. I do not expect them to be pumped for this game, and thus they will just go through the motions and win this game by 21-25 points. Vanderbilt allowed 284 yards passing and three touchdowns to a so-so South Carolina passing attack, and I believe that UMASS will put up the highest point total of the season thus far. The SEC is overrated, and we will go against the conference again in this nonconference game.

4 Unit Play. #78/#322 Take Connecticut Huskies +18 over Michigan Wolverines (Saturday 8 pm ABC) Yes Michigan had their look ahead performance last Saturday against Akron coming off a big victory over Notre Dame the previous week. But that being said, I just do not believe that Michigan is good enough to be laying this many points on the road to a BCS Conference team (Yes the AAC is a BCS Conference). UCONN is terrible on offense, but they do have a decent defense and thus I see Michigan winning this game by 10-14 points. Michigan has holes and UCONN will find a few of them to keep this game somewhat respectable.

4 Unit Play. #16/#336 Take Maryland Terrapins -4.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN U) We used Maryland as our big play last week and won the game despite a terrible performance on offense. Even though Maryland moved the football at will against a strong UCONN defense, they were just bitten by the turnover bug. This team put up over 500 yards of offense but had 3 turnovers and was just 4 for 15 on third-down conversions and 0-2 on fourth-down conversions. If they can clean up these things, they will pound West Virginia, a team that is in complete rebuilding mode. Maryland players are sky high at the moment as they are 3-0, and this is a must win game for them to keep their magical ride going. West Virginia is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against ACC teams. Maryland is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Maryland wins this game by double digits in Baltimore.

5 Unit Play. #31/#343 Take Wyoming Cowboys -5 over Air Force Falcons (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN U) Top College Play of the Weekend. Much like our top play last week, revenge will be served on the field as we side with the more balanced team on Saturday night in Colorado Springs, CO. Coach Christensen was upset at how the game ended last year, a 28-27 victory for Air Force, and you can be sure his team will be ready to make a statement on Saturday night. But this play just comes down to Air Force not being able to stop the passing attack. They have no pass rush whatsoever, having accumulated just 1 sack on the season. Boise State and Utah State just picked this team apart, with QB Southwick going 27 for 29 and Chuckie Keaton going 32 for 40 with 5 touchdowns. Bad weather kept the Falcons closer to the Broncos last week, but we have a short number to work with backing the road favorite tonight. Wyoming is completing 63% of their passes and throwing for over 316 yards in just three games, and one of them came against Nebraska, a team expected to challenge for the Big Ten title. Wyoming is up-and-coming team that will be bowl eligible this season. They have covered 4 straight against the Falcons and will win this game by double digits. Wyoming is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games. Air Force really fell apart last year toward the end of the season, and they are just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Air Force goes down tonight in Colorado Springs.

4 Unit Play. #44/#356 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish -4.5 over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday 3:30 pm NBC) Michigan State has been the side to play in this series over the years. However, the Irish have pounded the Spartans the last two years. That includes a 20-3 victory in East Lansing last year despite Notre Dame being a 6-point underdog. Michigan State did not have an offense last year but did have a really good defense. I just do not see the Spartans being that improved on offense this year to threaten the suspect Irish defense. Notre Dame can score points, and I just do not believe that Michigan State will be able to keep pace with them. Michigan State is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games on grass. The Irish shut down the Spartans offense, take care of the football, and win this game comfortably.

4 Unit Play. #64/#374 Take Florida Atlantic Owls +3.5 over Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (Saturday 12 pm) This is a battle of two teams not expected to challenge in Conference USA, and thus we will side with the home underdog. This will be FAU's only home game in their first six games this season, and thus expect the home crowd to be behind them in a big way. They picked up a surprising victory against USF last week, and they have a strong defense that returns most of their talent from 2012. They have not been giving up big numbers on the road, with opposing teams scoring just 25 points per game. Expect that number to go down since they are at home this week. MTSU has not looked that impressive thus far in 2013 despite a strong offense as they got pounded by North Carolina and struggled to beat a terrible Memphis team at home last Saturday. MTSU is 3-7 ATS in their 10 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. FAU is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

4 Unit Play. #18/#376 Take Syracuse Orange -16 over Tulane Green Wave (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) The Orange are ready to pound another mid-major, a team that has a familiar name at quarterback in Nick Montana (son on Joe Montana). Syracuse appears to have a much more potent offense since they made a quarterback change to Terrel Hunt as he threw three touchdowns against Wagner last week. Tulane is better than in year's past, but they are still a bottom-feeder team in a bad conference. Syracuse showed signs against both Penn State and Northwestern and dominated last week against a lesser opponent. Tulane has lost 11 of their last 12 road games. Tulane is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a victory in their previous game. Syracuse is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 nonconference games.

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Chicago Syndicate

Early Top CFB Release

Marshall +9.5

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Allen Eastman

3* Under Arkansas State
3* Memphis
3* Wyoming

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Northcoast

Early Bird - Cincinnati -21

Underdog POW - Duke +4

4'* Power Play - Hawaii +11.5

Economy Club - Penn St. -20.5

Big Dog - San Diego St. +11 +365 ML

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CHASE DIAMOND

9* CFB Customer Special
Southern Methodist vs. Texas A&M
Point Spread: +29/-110 Southern Methodist

9* CFB Customer Special
Texas State vs. Texas Tech
Point Spread: +27½/-110 Texas State

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Phil Steele ESPN Insider

Each week during the 2013 college football season, I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups.

Week 3 is in the books and my picks went 7-2, giving me an overall record of 19-8.

While this week's slate of games looks like a bit of a letdown after last week's Alabama-Texas A&M thriller, there are some intriguing conference matchups along with some longtime nonconference rivals squaring off. I tried to find games that could offer a lot of split opinions.

No. 23 Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 5 Stanford Cardinal
Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
This week's only game involving two ranked teams takes place in the Pac-12 as the Sun Devils, fresh off a controversial 32-30 win over then-No. 20 Wisconsin, travel to take on the defending Pac-12 champion Cardinal, who are off to a 2-0 start after last week's 34-20 win over Army.

These two conference foes have not met since 2010, but Stanford is going for three straight wins in the series for only the second time (1999-2001).

Insider PickCenter
PickCenter Wondering which side to take? Check out PickCenter and do your research before making that critical decision.
PickCenter

After two wins over overmatched foes in San Jose State and Army, this will be the first legitimate test for the Cardinal. Last week's relatively close game can be excused when you consider the Cardinal were traveling across the country, playing at 9 a.m. PT time. Plus, Stanford had to face Army's option offense.


Quarterback Kevin Hogan is now a perfect 7-0 as a starter, and last year had four wins over ranked teams. On the other side, prior to last week's win over the Badgers, the Sun Devils' only win in the Todd Graham era over a team with a winning record came in last year's bowl game over Navy.

This will be the best defense that the Sun Devils have faced in two years. On the other side, I look for the Cardinal's excellent offensive line to wear down a relatively undersized Arizona State front seven that allowed 231 rush yards last week.

Pick: Stanford 31, Arizona State 20

Michigan State Spartans at No. 22 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
After going just 3-9 against the Spartans from 1997-2008, the Fighting Irish have now won three of the past four games over MSU, including two straight for the first time since 1993-1994. Last year's 20-3 win also ended Michigan State's 15-game home winning streak.

Last week, the Irish were in a flat spot against Purdue and found themselves down 17-10 into the fourth quarter before they scored three touchdowns in a span of 3:30 to make it 31-17. Quarterback Tommy Rees has thrown for more than 300 yards in all three games this year, but the Irish's ground game has averaged just 94 yards per game (YPG) the past two weeks. It will not get any easier for the Irish this week as they go up against a Spartans D that ranks No. 1 in the country in total defense, allowing just 177 YPG, albeit against poor competition.

On the other side, the Notre Dame defense has been a disappointment but will face a Michigan State offense that had struggled mightily prior to last week's 55-17 win over Youngstown State. After throwing four touchdown passes in Week 3, MSU quarterback Connor Cook will be making his first career road start in South Bend, where the Irish have won nine straight home games, their longest streak since 1997-1999.

Nine of the past 13 meetings between these teams have been decided by single digits, and I expect more of the same Saturday with the Irish winning their third straight.

Pick: Notre Dame 23, Michigan State 17

Auburn Tigers at No. 6 LSU Tigers
Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
Both teams come in a perfect 3-0. Last week Auburn capped off an 88-yard drive with a touchdown pass with 10 seconds left to beat Mississippi State 24-20. Quarterback Nick Marshall continues to improve each week and connected on 6 of 8 passes on the game-winning drive. However, he will be making his first career road start in one of college football's toughest settings: a night game at Death Valley.

LSU QB Zach Mettenberger continues an impressive season to date under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron. He has completed 66 percent of his passes the past two weeks (albeit against UAB and Kent State), and has a 9-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season.

While LSU does have a huge game against Georgia on deck, you have to think Auburn left it all on the table last week and will have no answer for an LSU attack that features a one-two punch at wide receiver in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, who are averaging a combined 316 all-purpose YPG this year.

Pick: LSU 38, Auburn 21

Tennessee Volunteers at No. 19 Florida Gators
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
The Gators have won eight in a row in this series by an average of 16 points. Last year, Tennessee led 14-10 at halftime, but Florida, true to form in the Will Muschamp era, made adjustments at the break and outgained the Vols in yardage to the tune of 399-109 in the second half in its 37-20 win.

Jeff Driskel
Kevin Liles/US PRESSWIRE
Jeff Driskel and the Gators are looking to bounce back after losing to Miami in Week 2.
This year, Florida comes in off a bye after a disappointing 21-16 loss to Miami. The Gators had a 22-10 first-down advantage and 413-212 yard edge in the game, but inefficiency in the red zone was the issue as they had two turnovers and also were stopped on downs. Quarterback Jeff Driskel threw for a career-high 291 yards but now has 12 turnovers in his past seven starts. On the bright side, the Gators defense ranks among the best in the country despite returning only three starters from last year.

Tennessee comes in off its worst loss since 1910; after leading Oregon 7-0 early, it was all downhill from there in the Vols' 59-14 loss to the Ducks. Quarterback Justin Worley, despite having a 5-1 TD-INT ratio, is averaging just 124 YPG and the Vols overall are getting outgained by 49 YPG.

Look for the Gators to shut down the Volunteers offense and, as long as Florida can clean up the turnovers in the red zone on offense, it should come away with a two-touchdown win.

Pick: Florida 30, Tennessee 16

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State Bulldogs
Friday at 9 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Broncos have dominated this series, winning seven straight games and, prior to last year's 20-10 win, had won the previous four games by an incredible 42 PPG.

Boise State has piled up 28 wins in its past 31 road games, but it was steamrolled at Washington earlier this year 38-6 and will be facing a Fresno State team that is a perfect 8-0 at home under coach Tim DeRuyter. The Broncos have won two straight games since that disappointing opener, and last week quarterback Joe Southwick had the highest passing efficiency total in Broncos history after completing 27 of 29 passes.

Southwick's counterpart, Derek Carr, is averaging 331 passing yards with an 8-1 TD-INT ratio as the Bulldogs have not played a game in two weeks because of the postponement of the Colorado game.

In my preseason College Football Preview, I picked Fresno State as my top non-AQ team and a win here will further validate that prediction. Look for the Bulldogs to finally end their series losing streak, but they may have to see the Broncos again here in the inaugural Mountain West championship game in December.

Pick: Fresno State 38, Boise State 34

Quick hitters
Utah State Aggies at USC Trojans
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN 2
Utah State quarterback Chuckie Keeton deserves Heisman consideration as he is averaging 308 pass YPG to go with a 12-1 TD-INT ratio. However, he will be facing a USC defense that is allowing just 212 YPG and 10 PPG this year. Last week, the Trojans offense finally kicked into gear as quarterback Cody Kessler completed 15 of 17 passes for 237 yards. In the end, the Trojans get their second straight win before a showdown with Arizona State next week.

Pick: USC 30, Utah State 20

Arkansas Razorbacks at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Arkansas is off to a 3-0 start under new coach Bret Bielema and its offense looks much like Wisconsin's in recent years as running backs Jonathan Williams and Alex Collins have each topped 100 yards in the first three games. While both Arkansas QB Brandon Allen and Rutgers signal-caller Gary Nova were hurt in last week's games and are questionable this week, I think the Hogs have the better supporting cast and will move to 4-0.

Pick: Arkansas 24, Rutgers 18

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Longhorns
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
I had extremely high expectations for Texas this season but clearly the Horns have disappointed. They come in reeling after back-to-back losses and now face a Kansas State team that has beaten them five straight times despite the Wildcats getting outgained in all five of those games by an average of 96 yards. Sooner or later, the Horns will play up to their talent level. Plus, earlier this week Gary "the Gut" Galante went with Texas and I always stick with "the Gut."

Pick: Texas 34, Kansas State 28

Utah Utes at Brigham Young Cougars
Saturday at 10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN 2
Utah and BYU have been playing the "Holy War" since 1896, but this is just one of many longtime rivalries that looks to be going by the wayside because of conference realignment. The Utes have now beaten the Cougars three straight years; however, this year BYU has the situational edge coming off a bye week after its impressive win over Texas while Utah comes in off a tough overtime loss to Oregon State. The Cougars get revenge and bragging rights until they meet again in 2016.

Pick: BYU 34, Utah 27

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Norm Hitzges

NCAA
Double Plays
· Auburn +17 vs LSU

Single Plays
· Syracuse -16 vs Tulane
· Washington St.-31 vs Idaho
· Michigan -18 vs UConn
· Maryland -5 vs West Virginia
· Utah +6 vs BYU
· Kansas -10.5 vs LaTech
· San Diego St. +9 vs Oregon St
· Florida Atlantic +3.5 vs Middle Tennessee
· Indiana pick vs Missouri
· Hawaii +9 vs Nevada
· North Texas +33 vs Georgia

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JIM FEIST

GAME OF THE YEAR WINNER'S CIRCLE EARLY!
9/21 3:30 PM EST CF (335) WEST VIRGINIA VS (336) MARYLAND
Take: (336) Non-Conference Game of the Year: Maryland.
Maryland is on a 5-0 ATS run, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Randy Edsall can coach, with his Maryland team now 3-0. The offense has been great, 40.7 points per game with exceptional balance, including 262 yards rushing per contest (21st in the nation). Senior QB C.J. Brown (6 TDs, 1 INT) leads an attack that returns 7 starters, including 3 on the offensive line. They take on a West Virginia team (2-1) that has problems on both sides of the ball. They were awful on defense last season and allowed 435 yards to Oklahoma despite losing only 16-7. And the offense has been in transition, 4 TOs in that game, and Coach Dana Holgorsen has rotated QBs Paul Millard and freshman Ford Childress, the latter who is now starting after playing in only 1 game. After torching defenses the last two years, they are averaging just 24 ppg. The Mountaineers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. the ACC and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the Terrapins hold all the cards.
Play Maryland!

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STRIKE POINT SPORTS

College Football Plays

4-Unit Play. #375 Take Tulane (+16) over Syracuse (12:30 p.m., Saturday, September 21)
I like this Tulane team. We backed them in their lone loss to a surprising South Alabama team in a close loss. Here, despite the heavy underdog label, I think the points will be good. The Green Wave have the offensive punch to score enough points against the Orange to not only cover but also compete for an outright victory. I can't remember Syracuse being this big a favorite over a team that wasn't a complete cupcake. Well, I can tell you Tulane is no walkover and I feel good about the points and the dog in this match-up. Outside of a 52-0 win over a horrible Wager team, Syracuse has lost its only two games this season, and I don't think they should be this big of chalk. Grab the points and the small conference team in this match-up.

4-Unit Play. #336 Take Maryland (-4.5) over West Virginia (3:30 p.m., Saturday, September 21)
Equal parts fade the Mountaineers and back the home Terps. I basically think this WVU squad is nothing to write home about. Graduating Geno Smith will catch up with them sooner than they will get over not having their do-it-all quarterback from a season ago. Maryland has some nice momentum with a 3-0 start and get a modest home line if I can say so as well. West Virginia has won each of the past three games in College Park, however this season the Terps are the better team. I was assuming this line would be around a touchdown in favor of the home team, so it's a value pick of sorts. Let's go with Maryland to continue their strong start to their 2013 season.

4-Unit Play. #387 Take Missouri (-1) over Indiana (8 p.m., Saturday, September 21)
It's all well and good for the Hoosiers to put up points in bulk against the likes of Indiana State, Navy and Bowling Green. However the SEC's Mizzou is a whole different opponent. Granted the Tigers aren't a legit Top Ten team or anything, however I think Missouri is in a class well beyond Indiana. I see this being another 30-point performance by Mizzou's high tempo offense as well as a win and a cover. Not trying to think too much on this one because I think Missouri is clearly the pick here. Go with the SEC over the Big Ten.

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Matt youmans colo st.