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MTI 5*
Carolina -3 over BUFFALO – The Bills had nothing to lose in their opener as they were a big dog. There was no pressure on EJ Manual in that game. Here, there will be. We expect Cam Newton and the Panthers to outplay Manual and the Bills.
Carolina battled the Seahawks gamely in week one, leading 7-3 at the half before falling 12-7 as a 3.5-point home dog. The Panthers had a chance for the winning score but DeAngelo Williams fumbled the ball away inside the Seahawks’ ten-yard line with five minutes left in the game. Steve Smith caught the only Panthers TD and chipped in with five more catches. The Panthers are 10-0 ATS after a game in which Steve Smith had more than 5 receptions, covering by an average of a whopping 12.4 ppg. They are 9-1 straight up in this situation, with their lone defeat a 23-22 setback as a 7.5-point underdog. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and 5<=Panthers:S Smith:p:receptions and date>=20111127
In addition, Carolina is 8-0 ATS as a favorite the week after a home loss and 7-0 ATS after a loss in which they were winning at the half. The SDQL for these two trends are:
team=Panthers and F and p:HL and NB and date>=20051218
team=Panthers and p:L and p:M2>0 and season>=2011
The Bills trailed 10-0 after one quarter last week against the Patriots, but returned a fumble 74 yards for a TD to get them back into the game. Teams in this spot have not done well vs the number. NFL teams are a combined 0-17 ATS at home when their line is within three points of pick and they are off a game in which they benefited from two-plus turnovers, returned a fumble for a TD and had fewer than 325 total yards. Verify this for yourself by running this SDQL text:
H and -3<=line<=3 and p:fumble return touchdowns>0 and p:TY<325 and po:TO>=2 and date>=20021201
These 17 teams have lost by an average of 11.4 points and have failed to cover by an average of 12.3 ppg.
Buffalo has been absolutely abysmal after losing as a home dog – especially if they are the underdog. Since the start of the 2009 season, Buffalo is 0-8 ATS as a home after losing as a home dog, losing every game by at least two touchdowns. The average final score has been 36.1 points to 8.9 points. This is the largest average margin we can remember. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Bills and D and p:LHD and season>=2009
On the average, the linesmakers has been off by more than twenty points in these games. The fact that their opening week loss to the Patriots was close will only hurt them here.
One of these teams is an 0-2 team and it ain’t Carolina.
MTi’s FORECAST: Carolina 27 BUFFALO 13
Carolina -3 over BUFFALO – The Bills had nothing to lose in their opener as they were a big dog. There was no pressure on EJ Manual in that game. Here, there will be. We expect Cam Newton and the Panthers to outplay Manual and the Bills.
Carolina battled the Seahawks gamely in week one, leading 7-3 at the half before falling 12-7 as a 3.5-point home dog. The Panthers had a chance for the winning score but DeAngelo Williams fumbled the ball away inside the Seahawks’ ten-yard line with five minutes left in the game. Steve Smith caught the only Panthers TD and chipped in with five more catches. The Panthers are 10-0 ATS after a game in which Steve Smith had more than 5 receptions, covering by an average of a whopping 12.4 ppg. They are 9-1 straight up in this situation, with their lone defeat a 23-22 setback as a 7.5-point underdog. The SDQL text is:
team=Panthers and 5<=Panthers:S Smith:p:receptions and date>=20111127
In addition, Carolina is 8-0 ATS as a favorite the week after a home loss and 7-0 ATS after a loss in which they were winning at the half. The SDQL for these two trends are:
team=Panthers and F and p:HL and NB and date>=20051218
team=Panthers and p:L and p:M2>0 and season>=2011
The Bills trailed 10-0 after one quarter last week against the Patriots, but returned a fumble 74 yards for a TD to get them back into the game. Teams in this spot have not done well vs the number. NFL teams are a combined 0-17 ATS at home when their line is within three points of pick and they are off a game in which they benefited from two-plus turnovers, returned a fumble for a TD and had fewer than 325 total yards. Verify this for yourself by running this SDQL text:
H and -3<=line<=3 and p:fumble return touchdowns>0 and p:TY<325 and po:TO>=2 and date>=20021201
These 17 teams have lost by an average of 11.4 points and have failed to cover by an average of 12.3 ppg.
Buffalo has been absolutely abysmal after losing as a home dog – especially if they are the underdog. Since the start of the 2009 season, Buffalo is 0-8 ATS as a home after losing as a home dog, losing every game by at least two touchdowns. The average final score has been 36.1 points to 8.9 points. This is the largest average margin we can remember. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
team=Bills and D and p:LHD and season>=2009
On the average, the linesmakers has been off by more than twenty points in these games. The fact that their opening week loss to the Patriots was close will only hurt them here.
One of these teams is an 0-2 team and it ain’t Carolina.
MTi’s FORECAST: Carolina 27 BUFFALO 13
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