8-8-13

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Best over/under bets of NFL preseason Week 1
By JASON LOGAN

If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 1 of the exhibition schedule.

Records as of 1995.

Best NFL preseason Week 1 over bets

New York Jets (7-10 SU, 12-5 O/U in Week 1)

The Jets offense was a joke last preseason, leading to a 1-3 over/under mark. Now that the cat’s out of the bag and the scoring struggles are frontpage fodder, New York’s totals could get a serious haircut this summer. Books have set the number at 36 points for the Jets Week 1 preseason date in Detroit.

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8 SU, 11-5-1 O/U in Week 1)

The Jaguars are another team known for their anemic offense. Jacksonville is bouncing between Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne at QB and will likely be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew for the preseason opener versus Miami Friday. Oddsmakers have the total at 35.5 for that matchup.

Best NFL preseason Week 1 under bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-6 SU, 3-14 ATS)

Tampa Bay is working in a new defense, hoping to stop the bleeding against the pass. With the emphasis on that and the franchise wanting to get a good look at rookie QB Mike Glennon, the unders could continue to come. The Bucs have a total of 35.5 for their Week 1 preseason tilt with the Ravens, who are 4-12 O/U in Week 1 of the preseason since 1995.

Washington Redskins (9-8 SU, 4-13 O/U in Week 1)

There will likely be no RG3 sight this preseason, with Washington playing it cool with Robert Griffin III’s wonky knee. Backup QB Kirk Cousins will handle the majority of the passing duties, especially in the Week 1 preseason opener with Tennessee. The total is set at 35.5 points.

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PGA Championship betting props: Ace at Oak Hill paying +110

The first round of the 2013 PGA Championship gets underway Thursday with Tiger Woods (+400) once again listed as the favorite to earn his fifth Wanamaker Trophy. If you’re tired of betting on top 10 finishes and outright winners there are some interesting prop bets available.

Below props courtesy of Bet365:

Will there be a hole-in-one?

Yes +110
No -150

* Robert Allenby carded a hole-in-one on the ninth hole when the PGA Championship was held at Oak Hill in 2003.
* There have been seven aces in the last three events held at Oak Hill.

Will there be a playoff?

Yes +250
No -350

* The PGA Championship last went to a playoff in 2011 when Keegan Bradley trumped Jason Dufner in the three-hole playoff.
* There have been three tournaments (2011, 2010, 2004) that have gone into a playoff in the previous 10.
* There was no playoff the last time the event was held at Oak Hill in 2003.

Top European

Justin Rose +750
Lee Westwood +800
Henrik Stenson +800
Rory McIlroy +900

* Justin Rose won his first major at the 2013 U.S. Open.
* Lee Westwood has missed the cut at the PGA in two of the past five years.
* Sweden's Henrik Stenson finished T2 (-8) at WGC-Bridgestone last weekend.
* Rory McIlroy is the defending champ at The PGA Championship after winning by 8-strokes last year.

Nationality of winner

USA -163
Europe +225
Rest of the world +450

* An American has won the PGA Championship in 12 of the previous 20 years.
* A European has won in three of the previous 20 years, including two of the last three.
* A player from outside the USA and Europe has won in five of the past 20 years, including YE Yang's win in 2009.

Below props courtesy of WilliamHill:

Margin of victory

Playoff +240
1 shot +250
2 shots +350
3 shots +450
4 shots +333

* Shaun Micheel won by two strokes when the event was last held at Oak Hill in 2003.
* Rory McIlroy won by eight strokes last year.

Top English player

Justin Rose +225
Lee Westwood +225
Luke Donald +333
Ian Poulter +500

* Poulter and Rose finished T3 last year.
* Westwood's best finish was T3 in 2009. He missed the cut last year.
* Luke Donald's best finish was T3 in 2006. He was T32 last year.

Top Australian

Adam Scott -138
Jason Day +275
Matt Jones +800
Geoff Ogilvy +1200

* Adam Scott won the Masters Tournament earlier this year and finished T3 at the British Open. He finished T11 at the PGA last year.
* Jason Day finished third at the Masters and T2 at the US Open. He has missed the cut at the two previous PGA Championships.
* Jones is currently ranked No. 135 in the world. He owns a 70.31 scoring average which ranks him No. 10 on the tour.
* Ogilvy finished T11 at the PGA Championship last year. His best result was T6 in 2005 and 2007. He finished T27 when the event was held at Oak Hill in 2003.

Top American player

Tiger Woods +200
Phil Mickelson +800
Brandt Snedeker +1400
Keegan Bradley +1800

* Tiger has won the event four times and is coming off a victory at the WGC Bridgestone Invitational. However, he finished T39 at the 2003 PGA when it was held at Oak Hill.
* Mickelson won the Wanamaker Trophy in 2005. He finished T36 last year and finished T23 in 2003 at Oak Hill.
* Snedeker has missed the cut two straight years at the PGA and his best result was T18 in 2007.
* Bradley won the event in 2011 and finished T3 last year.

Below props courtesy of LadBrokes:

Top past winner

Tiger Woods -162
Phil Mickelson +450
Keegan Bradley +1000
Rory McIlroy +1000

First round leader

Tiger Woods +350
Phil Mickelson +1600
Adam Scott +2000
Justin Rose +3300

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NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 1

August 7, 2013

The 2013 NFL Preseason has begun, and appropriately it began with an outright upset that could have been easily foreseeable as the Dallas Cowboys beat the Miami Dolphins as three-point underdogs. You see, Miami Coach Joe Philbin entered that contest with an 0-4 career record in preseason while Dallas Coach Jason Garrett went 3-1 last season.

When you combine that with the past success of the underdogs in preseason Week 1/Hall of Fame week, and that game was a perfect example of why bettors who refuse to bet on preseason preferring instead to wait until the regular year starts are missing out on a potential gold mine.

We may be in the minority, but we have always felt that NFL preseason is easier to beat than the NFL regular season. NFL regular season lines are the tightest lines of any North American sport out of necessity, the NFL is the most popular sport (i.e., most heavily bet), and so the lines need to be sharp. Conversely, we had seen many soft spots over the years in the preseason that looked obvious with just a little bit of research.

Each preseason week has its own characteristics, so we will have various approaches as we look at each week individually the next four weeks. Additionally, you should always check the teams' websites each week as another factor that makes preseason easy to beat is that coaches reveal their player rotations and game plans beforehand and then more or less stick to them, making this time of year unique from any other sport.

Also, another common theme across the entire preseason is that there are coaches that simply want to win these games, and the motivation of wanting to win is perhaps the single biggest factor in exhibition games.

Here are four winning preseason coaches that are always worth a second look:

Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): Shanahan is now 49-23 straight up in preseason with the Denver Broncos and Redskins combined after going 3-1 with Washington last year, and his teams are 30-18-1, 62.5 percent ATS since 2000.

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin is also coming off of a 3-1 preseason, making his a sparkling 19-6 straight up since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, and we will have more on Tomlin the final week of preseason as he is 6-0 straight up in Week 4..

John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): John Harbaugh is 13-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens in 2008, but he is 12-4 straight up and 10-6, 62.5 percent ATS the last four years.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): Schwartz is 12-4 straight up and 11-5, 68..8 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009, and he may need to continue that preseason success now more than ever to re-instill a winning attitude after the Lions were so dismal in the regular season last year.

And now here are some winning Trends & Angles exclusively for preseason Week 1, with all ATS records being over the last 13 preseasons since 2000.

Play on all underdogs in Week 1 plus Hall of Fame Week (118-95-11, 55.4% ATS):
This record is actually updated up to the second to include the Cowboys' win this past Sunday. Week 1 is the week when the most players get to shuffle in and out of the lineups, with starters hardly playing and many backups getting evaluated. Thus, these games are more like crapshoots so it only makes sense that the underdogs should hold most of the value. Furthermore, Week 1 or Hall of Fame underdogs of +3½ or more are 34-24, 58.6 percent ATS. The Cowboys did not qualify here, but there are currently quite a few dogs listed at +3½ or more for Week 1 coming up, so be on the look-out as these lines move more than regular season lines do and all of our ATS records are based on closing lines.

Play the 'under' in Week 1 or Hall of Fame games with totals greater than 35½
(42-21-1, 66.7%):
There was no play on this angle in this past week's Hall of Fame Game. Because of the sloppiness that can be expected in Week 1 with so many players seeing action, the average combined total score in Week 1 and Hall of Fame games combined since 2000 is 35.7 points, easily the lowest of any preseason week. That average has made the posted total of 35½ the perfect divider when judging totals, as it is the 'over' that is 73-66-2 in games with posted totals of 35½ or less.

Week 1 coaches:

Starting with the Big Four

Shanahan is 13-5 straight up in Week 1 with the Broncos and Redskins

Tomlin is 4-3

Harbaugh is 4-1

Schwartz is 2-2

Here are some other notable Week 1 marks.

Bill Belichick (New England Patriots, 10-4): Belichick and his Patriots won their preseason opener again last season and he is a lucrative is 9-3-2 ATS in Week 1 since 2000.

Rex Ryan (New York Jets, 0-4): More importantly from a betting perspective, Sexy Rexy is also 0-4 ATS as coach of the Jets, as his defensive schemes are obviously much simpler at the outset than they become later on.

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LA Syndicate Top Plays

MLB
Giants
Cardinals
Tigers

XNFL
Seahawks/Chargers Under 35.5

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Chicago Syndicate Top Plays

MLB
Cubs
Tigers

XNFL
Tampa Bay Bucs -3

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MLB Report

August 8

Hot pitchers
-- Gee is 1-1, 1.95 in his last four starts.
-- Fernandez is 4-1, 1.67 in his last six starts.
-- Samardzija is 1-1, 2.77 in his last four starts; Cubs won his last five starts on the road.
-- Lincecum is 0-1, 1.93 in his last two starts, but Giants lost six of his last seven starts at home.
-- Dodgers won Ryu's last seven starts (2-0, 2.25 last two).

-- Scherzer is 3-0, 0.83 in his last three starts. McAllister is 0-0, 2.84 in his last two starts; Indians are 5-2 when he starts at home.
-- BChen is 1-0, 1.50 in four starts this season.

Cold pitchers
-- Not 100% sure who starts for Rockies; de la Rosa is 0-1, 11.00 in his last couple starts. Francis is 0-2, 7.88 in his last three, last of which was June 18.
-- Cole is 1-5, 3.68 in his last six starts.
-- Martin allowed six runs in 4.1 IP in his first '13 start, vs Braves.
-- Hand is 0-3, 4.18 in his last five starts.
-- First MLB start for Martinez (4-2, 1.76 in ten AAA starts); he has given up seven runs in 11.2 big league innings this year.

-- Lester is 2-2, 4.91 in his last five starts; Red Sox lost six of his last eight starts on foreign soil.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........

-- de la Rosa 4-23 (1 of last 14), Francis 6-11; Gee 4-22 (0 of last 7)
-- Fernandez 4-22 (1 of last 7); Cole 2-10
-- Samardzija 6-23 (0 of last 4); Martin 0-1
-- Hand 3-6; Lincecum 9-22 (2 of last 8)
-- Ryu 6-21; Martinez 0-0

-- Scherzer 4-22 (0 of last 7); McAllister 5-14
-- Lester 7-23 (1 of last 5); BChen 1-4

Totals
-- Seven of Mets' last eight games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games.
-- Nine of last twelve Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Milwaukee games.
-- Under is 9-2-1 in last twelve Dodger games.

-- Five of last seven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 10-3-1 in Kansas City's last fourteen games.

Hot teams
-- Mets are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- Pirates won eight of their last ten games.
-- Brewers won three of their last four games.
-- Dodgers are 33-8 in their last 41 games, winning 16 of last 17 on road.

-- Detroit won 15 of its last 16 games.
-- Royals won 13 of their last 15 games. Red Sox won seven of their last nine.

Cold teams
-- Colorado lost eight of its last nine games.
-- Marlins lost their last four games, scoring nine runs.
-- Philly lost 14 of their last 16 games. Cubs lost five of their last six.
-- Giants lost 12 of their last 17 games.
-- Cardinals lost ten of their last fourteen games.

-- Indians are 1-11 in last twelve games vs Detroit

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TMC Sports Advisors

Kansas City Royals +105

Miami Marlins +1.5

Detroit Tigers -150

Mon. 3-1
Tue. 4-0
Wed. 3-1

44-23-1 Last 71

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Today's MLB Picks

Boston at Kansas City

The Red Sox look to open the series and take advantage of a Kansas City team that is 5-15 in Bruce Chen's last 20 starts as an underdog. Boston is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 8 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Colorado at NY Mets (12:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 13.126; NY Mets (Gee) 15.155 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-125); Over

Game 953-954: Miami at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 16.659; Pittsburgh (Cole) 15.757 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-145); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (+125); Under

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 13.330; Philadelphia (Martin) 14.489 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Over

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Hand) 14.003; San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.619 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-165); Under

Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.856; St. Louis (Martinez) 15.891 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 9 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-110); Over

Game 961-962: Detroit at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 17.823; Cleveland (McAllister) 16.322 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Under

Game 963-964: Boston at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 17.022; Kansas City (Chen) 15.440 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Boston (-115); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-115); Under

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Washington at Minnesota

The Lynx look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games against teams with a losing SU record. Minnesota is the pick (-15) according to Dunkel, which has the Lynx favored by 19. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-15). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, AUGUST 8 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 111.547; Indiana 112.440 Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 149 Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 144 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+3); Over

Game 603-604: Washington at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 105.184; Minnesota 124.127 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 19; 155 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 15; 160 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-15); Under

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the A’s on Wednesday and likes the Pirates on Thursday.

The deficit is 1487 sirignanos.

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Thursday

Dodgers -110

49′ers -3

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Cappers Access

Redskins +3
Bengals +3
Phillies +120

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Baseball Crusher
LA Dodgers +100 over St. Louis Cards
(System Record: 60-7, lost last game)
Overall Record: 60-65-1

Soccer Crusher
Atletico Rafaela + Lanus UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 438-15, won last game and a push)
Overall Record: 438-373-59

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1075-807 (57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner THURS Red sox w/ Lester

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River City Sharps

PGA Championship Picks

Here are our Thursday selections in PGA Individuals

B. SNEDEKER vs. D. JOHNSON
DUSTIN JOHNSON +125

S. STRICKER VS. S. GARCIA
STEVE STRICKER -129

R. FOWLER VS. W. SIMPSON
RICKY FOWLER +116

Our 4 Players to Bet on “To WIN” the PGA Championship

Hunter Mahan 30-1

Steve Stricker 50-1

Phil Mickelson 15-1

Keegan Bradley 35-1